Financial Tides -- A Stock Market Investing Newsletter by Jim Van Meerten: TW

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Friday, September 19, 2014

BARCHART MORNING CALL 9/19

Friday, September 19th, 2014View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 +0.24%) this morning are up +0.32% at a record high and European stocks are up +0.42% at a 2-3/4 month high after 55% of Scottish voters rejected independence and voted to remain in the UK. Yahoo rose 1.4% in pre-market trading after the company sold shares of Alibaba for $68 as Alibaba Group raised $21.8 billion in the biggest ever U.S. initial public offering. Asian stocks closed mostly higher: Japan +1.58%, Hong Kong +0.57%, China +0.69%, Taiwan +0.04%, Australia +0.32%, Singapore +0.24%, South Korea +0.23%, India -0.08%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index soared to a 6-3/4 year high as exporters rallied after the yen tumbled to a fresh 6-year low against the dollar. Commodity prices are mixed. Oct crude oil (CLV14 -0.41%) is down -0.12%. Oct gasoline (RBV14 +0.02%) is up +0.29%. Dec gold (GCZ14 -0.29%) is down -0.36%. Dec copper (HGZ14 -0.06%) is up +0.08%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mixed as grain prices tumbled on the prospects for record global crops with Nov soybeans down -0.49% and Dec wheat down -0.87%, both at fresh 4-year lows. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.33%) is up +0.28%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.44%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.18% at a 6-year high. Dec T-note prices (ZNZ14 +0.09%) are down -0.5 of a tick at a 1-1/2 month low as a rally in stocks undercuts safe-haven demand for Treasuries.
German Aug PPI fell -0.1% m/m and -0.8% y/y, right on expectations. German producer prices have now fallen for 13 consecutive months on a year-over-year basis.
Japan Aug nationwide department store sales fell -0.3% y/y, the fifth consecutive month of year-over-year declines.
The Japan Jul all-industry activity index unexpectedly fell for a second month as it declined -0.2% m/m, weaker than expectations of unch m/m.
The Japan Jul leading index CI was revised down to 105.4 from the originally reported 106.5. The Jul coincident index was left unchanged at 109.9.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

The market is expecting today’s Aug leading indicators report to show another solid increase of +0.4%, adding to the sharp gain of +0.9% seen in July. There are no earnings reports today from the Russell 1000 companies. Equity conferences today include: 5th Annual Summit Internal Audit on Thu-Fri, GTC 7th CNS Partnering & Deal-Making on Thu-Fri, Imperial Capital Global Opportunities Conference on Thu, Tokyo Game Show 2014 on Fri, and Zelman & Associates Housing Summit on Fri.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Alibaba (BABA) was initiated with a 'Buy' at Cantor with a price target of $90.
Universal Health (UHS +0.80%) will replace Peabody (BTU -4.93%) in the S&P 500 as of today's close.
United Rentals (URI +0.90%) will replace Graham Holdings (GH)C in the S&P 500 as of today's close.
MGM Resorts (MGM +2.41%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Argus.
Deutsche Telekom (DTEGY +1.14%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Citigroup.
Concur (CNQR +0.31%) jumped 20% in after-hours trading after SAP acquired the company for $129 a share or $7.4 billion.
Home Depot (HD +0.95%) raised guidance on fiscal 2015 EPS view to $4.54 from $4.52, higher than consensus of $4.50.
Restoration Hardware (RH -0.49%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at CRT Capital with a price target of $90.
Molycorp (MCP -13.82%) rose over 6% in after-hours trading after Oaktree Capital reported a 9.1% passive stake in the company.
Red Hat (RHT -0.69%) reported Q2 EPS of 41 cents, better than consensus of 38 cents.
Oracle (ORCL +1.00%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 62 cents, weaker than consensus of 64 cents, and then Oracle CEO Larry Ellison stepped down from his post and was named executive chair of the board and Chief Technology Officer (CTO).

MARKET COMMENTS

Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 +0.24%) this morning are up +6.50 points (+0.32%) at a record high. The S&P 500 index on Thursday climbed to a new record high and closed higher: S&P 500 +0.49%, Dow Jones +0.64%, Nasdaq +0.72%. Bullish factors included (1) carry-over optimism from Wednesday that the Fed will be in no hurry to raise interest rates after it retained its “considerable time” interest rate guidance, and (2) the -36,000 decline in weekly initial unemployment claims to 280,000, a larger drop than expectations of -10,000 to 305,000. A bearish factor was the -14.4% decline in Aug housing starts to 956,000, much weaker than expectations of -5.2% to 1.037 million, and the -5.6% drop in Aug building permits to 998,000, weaker than expectations of -1.6% to 1.040 million.
Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ14 +0.09%) this morning are down -0.5 of a tick at a new 1-1/2 month low. Dec 10-year T-note futures prices on Thursday tumbled to a 1-1/2 month low and closed lower. Bearish factors included (1) carry-over weakness from Wednesday’s slide after the Fed raised its year-end 2015 fed funds rate median forecast to 1.375% from a Jun estimate of 1.125%, and (2) the larger-than-expected decline in weekly jobless claims to a 2-month low. Closes: TYZ4 -10.00, FVZ4 -6.75.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.33%) this morning is up +0.237 (+0.28%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0057 (-0.44%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.20 (+0.18%) at a fresh 6-year high. The dollar index on Thursday erased an early rally and closed little changed. Bullish factors included (1) carry-over support from Wednesday’s action by the FOMC to raised in its year-end 2015 fed funds rate median forecast to 1.375% from a Jun estimate of 1.125%, and (2) weakness in the yen as USD/JPY posted a 6-year high after BOJ Governor Kuroda said a stronger dollar “isn’t negative” for Japan’s economy. Closes: Dollar index -0.022 (-0.03%), EUR/USD +0.00573 (+0.45%), USD/JPY +0.316 (+0.29%).
Oct WTI crude oil (CLV14 -0.41%) this morning is down -11 cents (-0.12%) and Oct gasoline (RBV14 +0.02%) is up +0.0075 (+0.29%). Oct crude and gasoline prices on Thursday closed lower: CLV4 -1.35 (-1.43%), RBV4 -0.0082 (-0.32%). Bearish factors included (1) the stronger dollar, and (2) the larger-than-expected declines in U.S. Aug housing starts and building permits.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR09/19/2014

US	1000 ET	Aug leading indicators expected +0.4%, Jul +0.9%.
	1500 ET	USDA Aug Cattle on Feed.
JPN	0030 ET	Japan Jul all-industry activity index expected unch m/m, Jun -0.4% m/m.
	0100 ET	Revised Japan Jul leading index CI, previous 106.5. Revised Jul coincident index, previous 109.9.
	0130 ET	Japan Aug nationwide department store sales, Jul -2.5% y/y.
GER	0200 ET	German Aug PPI expected -0.1% m/m and -0.8% y/y, Jul -0.1% m/m and -0.8% y/y.
EUR	0400 ET	Eurozone Jul current account, Jun +20.8 billion euros (nsa).

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR09/19/2014

Company Name	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period
Seadrill Ltd	SDRL NO	8:00	Annual General Meeting	Y 2014
Golar LNG Ltd	GLNG US	9:20	Annual General Meeting	Y 2014
ConAgra Foods Inc	CAG US	9:30	Annual General Meeting	Y 2014
Towers Watson & Co	TW US	10:00	Analyst Day	Y 2014
Red Hat Inc	RHT US	11:00	Acquisition of FeedHenry by Red Hat, Inc Call
Twenty-First Century Fox Inc	FOXA US		U.S. Box Office Release of Movie The Maze Runner""

Tuesday, August 12, 2014

BARCHART MORNING CALL 8/12

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Tuesday, August 12th, 2014View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

September E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 +0.16%) this morning are up +0.19% on optimism that Q2 company earnings results will remain strong, while European stocks are down -0.17% after German investor confidence dropped for an eighth month. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +0.20%, Hong Kong +0.18%, China -0.35%, Taiwan -0.11%, Australia +1.34%, Singapore -0.09%, South Korea +0.01%, India +1.42%. Commodity prices are mixed. Sep crude oil (CLU14 -0.71%) is down -0.81% after the IEA reduced its estimates for 2014 global oil demand by -180,000 barrels a day and by -90,000 barrels a day for 2015. Sep gasoline (RBU14 -0.36%) is down -0.47%. Dec gold (GCZ14 +0.18%) is up +0.21%. Sep copper (HGU14 +0.22%) is up +0.30%. Agriculture and livestock prices are lower ahead of today's USDA Aug WASDE crop production report. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.21%) is up +0.24%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.33% after German Aug ZEW investor confidence fell to the lowest in 20 months. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.10%. GBP/USD fell -0.03% to a 2-month low after a gauge of British retail sales fell for a second month. Sep T-note prices (ZNU14 -0.05%) are down -2 ticks.
The German Aug ZEW survey expectations of economic growth slumped -18.5 to 8.6, a much bigger decline than expectations of -10.1 to 17.0 and the lowest in 20 months. The Aug ZEW survey current situation fell -17.5 to 44.3, a bigger drop than expectations of -7.8 to 54.0 and the lowest in 7 months.
UK Jul BRC sales like-for-like unexpectedly fell for a second month as it slid -0.3% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.9% y/y.
Japan Jul PPI rose +0.3% m/m and +4.3% y/y, less than expectations of +0.4% m/m and +4.4% y/y.
The Japan Jun industrial production was revised lower to -3.4% m/m and +3.1% y/y from the originally reported -3.3% m/m and +3.2% y/y. The -3.4% m/m drop is the largest monthly decline in 3-1/4 years. Jun capacity utilization fell -3.3% m/m, the biggest decline in 1-3/4 years.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

The Treasury today will sell $27 billion of 3-year T-notes. Today's July monthly budget statement is expected to show a deficit of -$96.0 billion in a turnaround from June's surplus of +$70.5 billion. There are 12 of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today with notable reports including Fossil Group (consensus $0.96), Valspar (1.16), Kate Spade (0.00), Cree (0.41), and JDS Uniphase (0.13).
Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Pacific Crest Global Technology Leadership Forum on Mon-Tue, Jefferies Global Industrials Conference on Mon-Thu, Goldman Sachs Power, Utilities, MLP & Pipeline Conference on Tue, Wedbush Life Sciences Management Access Conference on Tue, 8/12/2014 on Tue-Wed, J.P. Morgan Auto Conference on Tue, Oppenheimer Technology, Internet & Communications Conference on Tue-Wed, JP Morgan Auto Conference on Wed, Canaccord Genuity Growth Conference on Wed-Thu, and Barclays Summer Utilities Conference on Thu.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Dean Foods (DF -3.86%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Neutral' at Credit Suisse.
Stryker (SYK -0.33%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Needham.
Citigroup added shares of First Solar (FSLR +1.98%) and Foot Locker (FT +0.55%) to its Focus List.
Towers Watson (TW +1.65%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $1.34, higher than consensus of $1.25.
Flowers Foods (FLO +0.35%) reported Q2 EPS of 21 cents, weaker than consensus of 24 cents, and then cut its fiscal 2014 EPS view to to 92 cents-98 cents from 98 cents-$1.05, below consensus of $1.02.
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF +0.39%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Stifel with a price target of $50.
Paulson & Co. reported a 10.1% passive stake in Cobalt (CIE +2.46%) .
MasTec (MTZ +4.50%) fell nearly 4% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 40 cents, right on consensus, but then lowered guidance on fiscal 2014 adjusted EPS to $1.55-$1.58, well below consensus of $1.82.
Convergys (CVG +1.62%) reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 34 cents, better than consensus of 32 cents.
Caesar's (CZR +2.32%) reported a Q2 EPS losss of -$3.24, over double consensus of a -$1.19 loss.
Ventas (VTR +0.35%) reported Q2 normalized FFO of $1.12, higher than consensus of $1.09
Nuance (NUAN +1.06%) tumbled 9% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 EPS of 27 cents, right on consensus, but then lowered guidance on fiscal 2014 EPS to $1.03-$1.08, below consensus of $1.13.

MARKET COMMENTS

Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 +0.16%) this morning are up +3.75 points (+0.19%). The S&P 500 index on Monday rallied to a 1-week high and closed higher: S&P 500 +0.28%, Dow Jones +0.10%, Nasdaq +0.58%. Bullish factors included (1) carry-over support from a rally in European stocks on reduced tensions in Ukraine after Russia said it had withdrawn troops from the Ukraine border, and (2) signs of optimism about the global economic outlook after Japan Jul consumer confidence climbed to an 8-month high and UK Jul Lloyds employment confidence rose to its highest level since the data series began in 2004.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU14 -0.05%) this morning are down -2 ticks. Sep 10-year T-note futures prices on Monday closed slightly lower. Bearish factors included (1) reduced safe-haven demand as global equity markets rallied after Russia said it had withdrawn troops from the Ukraine border, and (2) supply pressures as the Treasury prepares to auction $67 billion of T-notes and T-bonds this week in the Aug quarterly refunding that begins with Tuesday’s $27 billion auction of 3-year T-notes. Closes: TYU4 -1.50, FVU4 -0.50.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.21%) this morning is up +0.197 (+0.24%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0044 (-0.33%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.10 (+0.10%). The dollar index on Monday closed higher. Bullish factors included (1) weakness in the yen as USD/JPY rallied after strength in global equity markets reduced the safe-haven demand for the yen, and (2) overall negative sentiment toward EUR/USD on speculation the Fed will tighten monetary policy before the ECB. Closes: Dollar index +0.077 (+0.09%), EUR/USD -0.00259 (-0.19%), USD/JPY +0.152 (+0.15%).
Sep WTI crude oil (CLU14 -0.71%) this morning is down -79 cents (-0.81%) after the IEA cut its global oil demand forecasts for this year and next. Sep gasoline (RBU14 -0.36%) is down -0.0129 (-0.47%). Sep crude and gasoline prices on Monday closed higher: CLU4 +0.43 (+0.44%), RBU4 +0.0009 (+0.03%). Bullish factors included (1) a rally in global stock markets, which signals confidence in the economic outlook and energy demand, and (2) expectations that Wednesday’s weekly EIA data will show crude stockpiles declined for the seventh consecutive week.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR08/12/2014

US	1200 ET	Aug WASDE crop production.
	1300 ET	Treasury auctions $27 billion 3-year T-notes.
	1400 ET	Jul monthly budget statement expected -$96.0 billion, Jun +$70.5 billion.
JPN	0030 ET	Revised Japan Jun industrial production, previous -3.3% m/m and +3.2% y/y.
	0030 ET	Japan Jun capacity utilization, May -0.7% m/m
	1950 ET	Japan Q2 GDP expected -7.0% q/q annualized, Q1 +6.7% q/q annualized. Q2 deflator expected +1.6% y/y, Q1 0.1% y/y. Q2 consumer spending expected -3.7% q/q, Q1 +2.2% q/q. Q2 business spending expected -3.0% q/q, Q1 +7.6% q/q.
GER	0500 ET	German Aug ZEW survey expectations of economic growth expected -10.1 to 17.0, Jul 27.1. Aug ZEW survey current situation expected -7.8 to 54.0, Jul 61.8.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR08/12/2014

Company Name	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Kate Spade & Co	KATE US	Bef-mkt	Q2 2014 Earnings Release	Q2 2014	-0.003
Valspar Corp/The	VAL US	Bef-mkt	Q3 2014 Earnings Release	Q3 2014	1.159
Flowers Foods Inc	FLO US	Bef-mkt	Q2 2014 Earnings Release	Q2 2014	0.235
CST Brands Inc	CST US	Bef-mkt	Q2 2014 Earnings Release	Q2 2014	0.487
Towers Watson & Co	TW US	6:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	1.252
Charles River Laboratories International Inc	CRL US	8:30	Investor Meeting	Y 2014
Flowers Foods Inc	FLO US	8:30	Q2 2014 Earnings Call	Q2 2014
Ventas Inc	VTR US	9:00	Q2 2014 Earnings Call	Q2 2014
Towers Watson & Co	TW US	9:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
CST Brands Inc	CST US	9:00	Q2 2014 Earnings Call	Q2 2014
Kate Spade & Co	KATE US	10:00	Q2 2014 Earnings Call	Q2 2014
Chimera Investment Corp	CIM US	10:00	Q2 2014 Earnings Call	Q2 2014
Valspar Corp/The	VAL US	11:00	Q3 2014 Earnings Call	Q3 2014
Precision Castparts Corp	PCP US	16:00	Annual General Meeting
Fossil Group Inc	FOSL US	16:30	Q2 2014 Earnings Call	Q2 2014
Myriad Genetics Inc	MYGN US	16:30	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
Cree Inc	CREE US	17:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
JDS Uniphase Corp	JDSU US	17:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
URS Corp	URS US	Aft-mkt	Q2 2014 Earnings Release	Q2 2014	0.74
Fossil Group Inc	FOSL US	Aft-mkt	Q2 2014 Earnings Release	Q2 2014	0.964
Jack Henry & Associates Inc	JKHY US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	0.595
Cree Inc	CREE US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	0.409
JDS Uniphase Corp	JDSU US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	0.13
Myriad Genetics Inc	MYGN US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	0.464
Tahoe Resources Inc	THO CN	Aft-mkt	Q2 2014 Earnings Release	Q2 2014

Friday, February 7, 2014

BARCHART MORNING CALL 2/7

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Friday, February 7th, 2014View Older Reports

Everything you need to know about the markets in one free daily newsletter.

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

March E-mini S&Ps (ESH14 +0.40%) this morning are up +0.25% ahead of this morning's U.S. Jan payrolls data and European stocks are up +0.14% as emerging-market stocks and currencies advanced. Asian stocks closed higher: Japan +2.17%, Hong Kong +1.00%, China +0.46%, Taiwan +0.92%, Australia +0.68%, Singapore +0.83%, South Korea +0.78%, India +0.32%. Commodity prices are mixed. Mar crude oil (CLH14 -0.19%) is down -0.40%. Mar gasoline (RBH14 +0.17%) is down -0.06%. Apr gold (GCJ14 +0.37%) is up +0.30%. March copper (HGH14 +0.50%) is up +0.54% at a 1-week high after LME copper inventories fell -1,225 MT to a 13-1/4 month low. Agriculture and livestock prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.09%) is up +0.08%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.15% after Germany's Federal Constitution Court sought advice on whether the ECB's OMT bond-buying program is legal. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.04%. March T-note prices (ZNH14 -0.10%) are down -2 ticks.
Germany's Federal Constitution Court has asked the European Court of Justice to rule on a claim that the ECB overstepped its powers in establishing the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) bond buying program in Sep 2012. The still-unused program that's credited with easing the Eurozone debt crisis, allows the ECB to buy government bonds of indebted nations.
German Dec industrial production unexpectedly fell -0.6% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.3% m/m, and on an annual basis rose +2.6% y/y, a slower pace than expectations of +3.5% y/y.
The German Dec trade balance shrank to a +14.2 billion euro surplus, smaller than expectations of a +17.3 billion euro surplus. Dec exports unexpectedly fell -0.9% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.8% m/m and the biggest decline in 7-months. Dec imports unexpectedly fell -0.6% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.9% m/m.
UK Dec industrial production rose +0.4% m/m and +1.8% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.6 m/m and +2.3% y/y. Dec manufacturing production climbed +0.3% m/m and +1.5% y/y, a smaller increase than expectations of +0.6% m/m and +2.3% y/y.
The Japan Dec leading index CI rose +1.1 to 112.1, a bigger increase than expectations of +0.8 to 111.9 and the highest since data began in 2008. The Dec coincident index rose +1.0 to 111.7, better than expectations of +0.8 to 111.5 and the highest in 5-1/2 years.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Today’s Jan payroll report is expected to show an increase of +182,000, returning to more reasonable figures after the very disappointing report of +74,000 seen in December. Today’s Jan unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged at 6.7%, sustaining the -0.3 point drop seen in December to the 5-year low of 6.7%. There are 5 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today: Lab Corp of America ($1.66), Wyndham (0.73), Cigna (1.49), Moody's (0.76), and FLIR Systems (0.37). Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include India Auto Expo 2014 on Fri.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Moody's (MCO +2.98%) reported Q4 EPS of 85 cents, higher than consensus of 76 cents.
Towers Watson (TW -8.25%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Neutral' at JPMorgan.
Cigna (CI +0.35%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.39, below consensus of $1.49.
AOL (AOL -0.88%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at BofA/Merrill.
Fitch Ratings said it has downgraded the long-term ratings of McKesson (MCK +2.24%) , including the long-term Issuer Default Rating, to 'BBB+' from 'A-'
WellCare (WCG -0.40%) signed a contract to provide medicaid services to Medicaid recipients in eight Florida regions as part of the state's Managed Medical Assistance program.
Illinois Tool Works (ITW +0.68%) announced that it will sell its Industrial Packaging Segment to The Carlyle Group (CG +4.81%) for $3.2 billion.
Republic Services (RSG +1.01%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 53 cents, better than consensus of 46 cents.
ON Semiconductor (ONNN +2.59%) reported Q4 EPS of 17 cents, better than consensus of 14 cents.
News Corp. (NWSA +2.63%) rose 2% in European trading ater it reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 31 cents, well ahead of consensus of 20 cents.
Activision Blizzard (ATVI +1.66%) climbed 8% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 79 cents, stronger than consensus of 73 cents.
LinkedIn (LNKD +4.24%) slid over 8% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 39 cents, higher than consensus of 38 cents, but then lowered guidance on its fiscal 2014 revenue estimate to $2.02 billion-$2.05 billion, below consensus of $2.16 billion.
Expedia (EXPE +1.89%) jumped 13% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 EPS of 92 cents, better than consensus of 86 cents.
Lionsgate (LGF +3.42%) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 70 cents, well above consensus of 44 cents.

MARKET COMMENTS

Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH14 +0.40%) this morning are up +4.50 points (+0.25%). The S&P 500 on Thursday closed higher on reduced labor market concerns after U.S. weekly initial unemployment claims fell -20,000 to 331,000, a bigger decline than expectations of -13,000 to 335,000. Stocks also found support on strong Q4 company earnings results as 77% of the S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings thus far have beaten market estimates. A negative for stocks was the wider-than-expected -$38.7 billion U.S. Dec trade deficit, which should cause a downward revision to Q4 GDP. Closes: S&P 500 +1.24%, Dow Jones +1.22%, Nasdaq 100 +1.24%.
Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH14 -0.10%) this morning are down -2 ticks. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices on Thursday closed lower after U.S. weekly unemployment claims fell more than expected. T-note prices were also undercut by a slide in German bund prices after ECB President Draghi signaled the ECB will wait until next month to decide if they should implement any additional stimulus measures. Closes: TYH4 -8.50, FVH4 -3.50.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.09%) this morning is up +0.068 (+0.08%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0020 (-0.15%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.04 (+0.04%). The dollar index on Thursday closed lower after a rally in stocks curbed safe-haven demand for the dollar. EUR/USD received a boost after the ECB refrained from additional stimulus measures following its policy meeting as ECB President Draghi said the ECB will wait until next month before deciding if additional stimulus is needed. Closes: Dollar index -0.130 (-0.16%), EUR/USD +0.0056 (+0.41%), USD/JPY +0.662 (+0.65%).
Mar WTI crude oil (CLH14 -0.19%) this morning is down -39 cents (-0.40%) and Mar gasoline (RBH14 +0.17%) is down -0.0017 (-0.06%). Mar crude oil and gasoline prices on Thursday closed higher with Mar crude at a 1-month high. Bullish factors included (1) the weaker dollar, (2) the larger-than-expected decline in U.S. weekly jobless claims, a sign of economic strength, and (3) the current cold snap to grip the northern half of the U.S., which should boost demand for heating fuels and further reduce distillate inventories. Closes: CLH4 +0.46 (+0.47%), RBH4 +0.0417 (+1.58%).

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR02/07/2014

US	0830 ET	U.S. Department of Labor releases annual revisions to labor statistics from March 2013.
	0830 ET	Jan non-farm payrolls expected +180,000, Dec +74,000. Jan private payrolls expected +188,000, Dec +87,000. Jan manufacturing payrolls expected +10,000, Dec +9,000. Jan unemployment rate expected unch at 6.7%, Dec -0.3 to 6.7%.
	0830 ET	Jan avg hourly earnings expected +0.2% m/m and +1.8% y/y, Dec +0.1% m/m and +1.8% y/y. Jan avg weekly hours expected unch at 34.4 hours, Dec 34.4 hours.
	1500 ET	Dec consumer credit expected +$12.0 billion, Nov +$12.318 billion.
JPN	0000 ET	Japan Dec leading index CI expected +0.8 to 111.9, Nov 111.1. Dec coincident index expected +0.8 to 111.5, Nov 110.7.
GER	0200 ET	German Dec trade balance expected +17.3 billion euros, Nov +18.1 billion euros. Dec exports expected +0.8% m/m, Nov +0.3% m/m. Dec imports expected +0.9% m/m, Nov -2.3% m/m.
	0200 ET	German Dec current account balance expected +21.5 billion euros, Nov +21.6 billion euros.
	0600 ET	German Dec industrial production expected +0.3% m/m and +3.5% y/y, Nov +1.9% m/m and +3.5% y/y.
UK	0430 ET	UK Dec industrial production expected +0.6% m/m and +2.3% y/y, Nov unch m/m and +2.5% y/y.
	0430 ET	UK Dec manufacturing production expected +0.6% m/m and +2.3% y/y, Nov unch m/m and +2.8% y/y.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR02/07/2014

Company Name	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Laboratory Corp of America Holdings	LH US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2013 Earnings Release	Q4 2013	1.66
Wyndham Worldwide Corp	WYN US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2013 Earnings Release	Q4 2013	0.728
Cigna Corp	CI US	6:30	Q4 2013 Earnings Release	Q4 2013	1.485
Moody's Corp	MCO US	7:00	Q4 2013 Earnings Release	Q4 2013	0.763
FLIR Systems Inc	FLIR US	7:30	Q4 2013 Earnings Release	Q4 2013	0.371
St Jude Medical Inc	STJ US	8:00	Investor Meeting	Y 2014
Cigna Corp	CI US	8:30	Q4 2013 Earnings Call	Q4 2013
Wyndham Worldwide Corp	WYN US	8:30	Q4 2013 Earnings Call	Q4 2013
Micron Technology Inc	MU US	9:00	Analyst Conference	Y 2014
Laboratory Corp of America Holdings	LH US	9:00	Q4 2013 Earnings Call	Q4 2013
FMC Technologies Inc	FTI US	9:00	Q4 2013 Earnings Call	Q4 2013
Corning Inc	GLW US	9:30	Investor Meeting	Y 2014
FLIR Systems Inc	FLIR US	11:00	Q4 2013 Earnings Call	Q4 2013
Moody's Corp	MCO US	11:30	Q4 2013 Earnings Call	Q4 2013
Apartment Investment & Management Co	AIV US	13:00	Q4 2013 Earnings Call	Q4 2013
Time Warner Inc	TWX US		U.S. Box Office Release of Movie The Lego Movie""

Monday, November 25, 2013

BARCHART MORNING CALL 11/25

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Monday, November 25th, 2013View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ13 +0.31%) this morning are up +0.36% at a record high and European stocks are up +0.64% after Iran agreed to limit its nuclear program. Asian stocks closed mostly higher: Japan +1.54%, Hong Kong -0.05%, China -0.39%, Taiwan +0.87%, Australia +0.32%, Singapore +0.25%, South Korea +0.51%, India +1.92%. Japanese exporters rallied and help propel the Nikkei Stock Index up to a 6-month high after the yen tumbled to a 5-3/4 month low against the dollar. Commodity prices are mixed. Jan crude oil (CLF14 -1.52%) is down -1.32% and Jan gasoline (RBF14 -1.54%) is down -1.46% after Iran agreed to curtail its nuclear activities. Dec gold (GCZ13 -1.03%) is down -1.05% at a 4-1/2 month low as the accord between Iran and world powers reduces the safe-haven demand for gold. Dec copper (HGZ13 -0.14%) is up +0.08% at a 1-1/2 week high after LME copper inventories slumped to a 9-month low. Agricultural prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.26%) is up +0.21%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.26% after ECB Council member Hansson said the ECB stands ready to cut interest rates further. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.51% at a 5-3/4 month high as the rally in global stocks undercuts the safe-haven demand for the yen. December T-note prices (ZNZ13 +0.07%) are up +1 tick.
ECB Governing Council member Hansson said the ECB stands ready to cut interest rates further and is prepared to make the deposit rate negative when he said "the options on rate cuts are still not fully exhausted and there are all kinds of other measures that are still on the table." He added "we are technically ready” to reduce the deposit rate.
Iran agreed to limit its nuclear program in exchange for as much as $7 billion in relief from economic sanctions over six months. In a deal brokered in Geneva with five nations over the past five days, Iran won an easing of sanctions on oil, auto parts, gold and precious metals for six months after it agreed to curtail its nuclear activities. The deal, which is reversible, allows Iran to repatriate $4.2 billion in frozen oil assets and allows it to export 1 million barrels a day of crude under sanctions that remain in force. U.S. Secretary of State Kerry said both sides will now work to conclude a comprehensive accord within six months.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Today’s Oct pending home sales index is expected to show an increase of +1.1% m/m, recovering part of the sharp -5.6% m/m decline seen in September. The Treasury today will sell $32 billion in 2-year T-notes. There are 5 of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: Workday (consensus -$0.17), Seadrill (0.66), Copart (0.34), Nuance Communications (0.29), Palo Alto Devices (0.07). Equity conferences this week include the 12th Annual World Drug Manufacturing Summit 2013 on Tue-Wed.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

FBR Capital reiterated its 'Outpeform' rating on Flour (FLR +0.81%) and raised its price target on the stock to $97 from $90.
Time Warner Cable (TWC +9.98%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Argus.
Piper Jaffray kept its 'Overweight' rating on DaVita (DVA -0.62%) and raised its price target on the stock to $73 from $63.
Brocade (BRCD +0.45%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at ISI Group.
Caterpillar (CAT +0.93%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at BofA/Merrill.
R.R. Donnelley (RRD +0.12%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Benchmark Co.
Campbell Soup (CPB +1.23%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Goldman.
Clorox (CLX -0.22%) was downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Neutral' at Goldman.
Alcoa (AA +1.32%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Goldman.
Allegion (ALLE) will replace J.C. Penney (JCP -3.27%) in the S&P 500 Index as of the 11/29 close.
Bloomberg reports that the FDA approved the Influenza A Virus Monovalent Vaccine made by a unit of GlaxoSmithKline (GSK +0.26%) for the prevention of H5N1 influenza, commonly known as avian or bird flu.

MARKET COMMENTS

Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ13 +0.31%) this morning are up +6.50 points (+0.36%) at a fresh record high. The S&P 500 index on Friday rose to a fresh record high and closed higher. Bullish factors for stocks included (1) carry-over support from a rally in European stocks after the German Nov IFO business climate rose +2.1 to 109.3, a bigger increase than expectations of +0.3 to a 19-month high of 107.7, and (2) improved U.S. economic data that has bolstered the economic outlook and offset concerns that the Fed will soon taper stimulus. Closes: S&P 500 +0.50%, Dow Jones +0.34%, Nasdaq 100 +0.57%.
Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ13 +0.07%) this morning are up +1 tick. Dec T-notes Friday closed higher on speculation the Fed will maintain its pace of bond buying into next year. Gains were limited after stocks rose, which reduced safe-haven demand for T-notes, along with negative carry-over from a fall in German bunds after the German Nov IFO business climate rose to a 19-month high. Closes: TYZ3 +7.00, FVZ3 +1.25.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.26%) this morning is up +0.170 (+0.21%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0035 (-0.26%) on dovish comments from ECB Council member Hansson and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.52 (+0.51%) at a 5-3/4 month high on reduced safe-haven demand for the yen. The dollar index on Friday closed lower on reduced safe-haven demand as the S&P 500 rallied to a fresh record high. EUR/USD moved higher after the German Nov IFO business climate rose to a 19-month high and USD/JPY posted a 4-1/2 month high after BOJ Governor Kuroda said that the yen isn’t “excessively weak.” Closes: Dollar index -0.365 (-0.45%), EUR/USD +0.0076 (+0.56%), USD/JPY +0.121 (+0.12%).
Jan WTI crude oil (CLF14 -1.52%) this morning is down -$1.25 (-1.32%) and Jan gasoline (RBF14 -1.54%) is down -0.0395 (-1.46%) after Iran agreed to curb its nuclear activities. Jan crude oil and gasoline prices on Friday closed lower. Negative factors included (1) ample supplies with EIA crude inventories at a 4-1/2 month high and U.S crude production at a 24-3/4 year high, and (2) reduced concern over gasoline supplies after Phillips 66 restarted its 238,000 barrel-a-day Bayway refinery in New Jersey that was closed for maintenance. Closes: CLF4 -0.60 (-0.63%), RBF4 -0.0080 (-0.29%).

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR11/25/2013

US	1000 ET	Oct pending home sales expected +1.1% m/m and -1.0% y/y, Sep -5.6% m/m and +1.1% y/y.
	1100 ET	USDA weekly grain export inspections.
	1300 ET	Treasury auctions $32 billion 2-year T-notes.
JPN	1850 ET	Japan Oct corporate service price index expected +0.9% y/y, Sep +0.7% y/y.
UK	n/a	UK Nov nationwide house prices expected +0.6% m/m and +6.2% y/y, Oct +1.0% m/m and +5.8% y/y.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR11/25/2013

Company Name	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Towers Watson & Co	TW US	10:00	Acquisition of Liazon Corporation by Towers Watson & Co Call
Seadrill Ltd	SDRL NO	11:00	Q3 2013 Earnings Call	Q3 2013
Palo Alto Networks Inc	PANW US	16:30	Q1 2014 Earnings Call	Q1 2014
Nuance Communications Inc	NUAN US	17:00	Q4 2013 Earnings Call	Q4 2013
Workday Inc	WDAY US	17:00	Q3 2014 Earnings Release	Q3 2014	-0.174
Workday Inc	WDAY US	17:00	Q3 2014 Earnings Call	Q3 2014
Seadrill Ltd	SDRL NO		Q3 2013 Earnings Release	Q3 2013	0.657
Copart Inc	CPRT US	Aft-mkt	Q1 2014 Earnings Release	Q1 2014	0.342
Nuance Communications Inc	NUAN US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2013 Earnings Release	Q4 2013	0.293
Palo Alto Networks Inc	PANW US	Aft-mkt	Q1 2014 Earnings Release	Q1 2014	0.073
Equity Lifestyle Properties Inc	ELS US		Special Meeting

Friday, November 15, 2013

BARCHART MORNING CALL 11/15

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Friday, November 15th, 2013View Older Reports

Everything you need to know about the markets in one free daily newsletter.

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ13 +0.21%) this morning are up +0.20% at a fresh record high and European stocks are up +0.08% on optimism the Fed won't withdraw stimulus immediately. Asian stocks closed higher: Japan +1.95%, Hong Kong +1.69%, China +2.01%, Taiwan +0.52%, Australia +0.86%, Singapore +0.32%, South Korea +2.23%, India closed for holiday. Global stocks found support from Fed Chair nominee Yellen's comments on Thursday that she is committed to promoting a strong U.S. economic recovery and will ensure monetary stimulus isn't removed too soon. Japanese exporters rallied and led the Nikkei Stock Index to a 5-1/2 month high as the yen weakened past 100 to the dollar for the first time in 2 months, which should boost exporters' profits. Commodity prices are mixed. Dec crude oil (CLZ13 +0.13%) is up +0.15%. Dec gasoline (RBZ13 -0.51%) is down -0.52%. Dec gold (GCZ13 -0.32%) is down -0.32% and Dec copper (HGZ13 -0.17%) is down -0.32%. Agricultural and livestock prices are mostly higher. The dollar index (DXY00 unch) is up +0.04%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.09%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.36% at a 2-month high as the yen weakened on speculation the BOJ may announce additional stimulus measures when it meets next week. December T-note prices (ZNZ13 -0.09%) are down -4 ticks.
Eurozone Oct CPI was -0.1% m/m, right on expectations, and on an annual basis was left unrevised at a 4-year low of +0.7% y/y. Oct core CPI was also left unrevised at +0.8% y/y.
EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Rehn said "The gradual recovery is underway in Europe," and that challenges remain for Spain and Ireland.
Moody's Investors Service cut its senior holding company ratings one level on four of the biggest U.S. banks: Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase and Bank of New York Mellon, saying the government would be less likely to help them repay creditors in a crisis.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Today’s Oct industrial production report is expected to show a modest increase of +0.2% following the +0.6% increase seen in Sep. Today’s Nov Empire manufacturing index is expected to show a +3.48 to 5.00, reversing part of the -4.77 point decline to 1.52 seen in October. Today’s Oct import price index is expected to show declines of -0.5% m/m and -1.7% y/y following the Sep report of +0.2% m/m and -1.0% y/y. There are no major earnings reports today. Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Morgan Stanley Asia Pacific Summit on Thu, and Mexico Investors Forum 2013 on Fri.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Morgan Stanley reiterated its 'Overweight' rating on Amazon.com (AMZN +3.14%) and raised its price target on the stock to $404 from $380.
TransDigm (TDG -2.21%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at KeyBanc.
Kellogg (K +1.33%) was downgraded to 'Underweight' from 'Equal Weight' at Barclays.
JPMorgan Chase (JPM +0.48%) reported October net credit losses of 2.82% vs. 2.63% in Sep and October delinquency rate of 1.60% vs. 1.57% in Sep.
Travel Centers of America (TA +0.37%) announced that it has agreed to acquire 31 convenience stores with retail gasoline stations for $67 million.
Reuters reported that Comcast (CMCSA +0.63%) is planning to begin selling movies for download and streaming through the cable operator's set-top boxes and its Xfinity TV website.
Kimberly Clark (KMB +0.80%) climbed nearly 7% in after-hours trading after it said that it is pursuing a spin-off of its health care business.
Agilent (A -1.29%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 81 cents, stronger than consensus of 76 cents.
Nordstrom (JWN +0.08%) reported Q3 EPS of 69 cents, higher than consensus of 66 cents.
Applied Materials (AMAT -0.62%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 19 cents, better than consensus of 18 cents.

MARKET COMMENTS

Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ13 +0.21%) this morning are up +3.50 points (+0.20%) at a fresh record high. The S&P 500 index on Thursday posted a record high and closed higher. Bullish factors for stocks included (1) comments from Fed Chair nominee Yellen who said "it is imperative that we do what we can to promote a strong recovery," which signals the Fed will maintain the current pace of QE3, and (2) additional comments from Yellen who said that she sees "no evidence of an asset-price bubble" in the stock market. Closes: S&P 500 +0.48%, Dow Jones +0.35%, Nasdaq 100 +0.28%.
Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ13 -0.09%) this morning are down -4 ticks. Dec 10-year T-note prices on Thursday closed higher. Supportive factors for T-notes included (1) comments from Fed Chair nominee Yellen who said she will continue with the current pace of QE3 until the economy improves, and (2) bond dealer short-covering after the Treasury concluded its $70 billion sale of T-notes and T-bonds in its quarterly refunding. Closes: TYZ3 +15.50, FVZ3 +9.50.
The dollar index (DXY00 unch) this morning is up +0.032 (+0.04%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0012 (-0.09%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.36 (+0.36%) at a 2-month high. The dollar index on Thursday closed higher after Fed Chair nominee Yellen said she is committed to promoting a strong economic recovery, which would be dollar positive. USD/JPY rose to a 2-month high as the yen weakened on speculation the slowdown in Japan Q3 GDP will prompt the BOJ to increase its asset purchases to stimulate growth. Closes: Dollar index +0.097 (+0.12%), EUR/USD -0.00278 (-0.21%), USD/JPY +0.775 (+0.78%).
Dec WTI crude oil (CLZ13 +0.13%) this morning is up +14 cents (+0.15%) and Dec gasoline (RBZ13 -0.51%) is down -0.0140 (-0.52%). Dec crude oil and gasoline prices on Thursday closed mixed. Dec crude sank to a 5-1/4 month low on bearish factors that included (1) the +2.64 million bbl increase in weekly EIA inventories to a 4-1/2 month high of 388.1 million bbl, (2) the +1.69 million bbl increase in inventories at Cushing, OK, the delivery hub for WTI futures, to a 3-month high of 38.2 million bbl, and (3) the increase in U.S. crude production in the week ended Nov 8 by +1.6% to a 24-3/4 year high of 7.981 million barrels a day. Dec gasoline rose to a 4-week high after weekly EIA gasoline stockpiles tumbled -838,000 bbl to an 11-1/2 month low of 209.2 million bbl. Closes: CLZ3 -0.12 (-0.13%), RBZ3 +0.0557 (+2.12%).

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR11/15/2013

US	0830 ET	Nov Empire manufacturing index expected +3.48 to 5.00, Oct -4.77 to 1.52.
	0830 ET	Oct import price index expected -0.5% m/m and -1.6% y/y, Sep +0.2% m/m and -1.0% y/y.
	0830 ET	USDA weekly Export Sales.
	0915 ET	Oct industrial production expected +0.2%, Sep +0.6%. Oct manufacturing production expected +0.2%, Sep +0.1%. Oct capacity utilization expected unch at 78.3%.
	1000 ET	Sep wholesale inventories expected +0.4%, Aug +0.5%. Sep wholesale trade sales expected +0.3%, Aug +0.6%.
EUR	0500 ET	Revised Eurozone Oct CPI, previous +0.7% y/y and core CPI +0.8% y/y.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR11/15/2013

Company Name	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period
Towers Watson & Co	TW US	8:00	Annual General Meeting	Y 2013
General Electric Co	GE US	10:00	Investor Meeting - GE Capital	Y 2013
Sysco Corp	SYY US	11:00	Annual General Meeting	Y 2013
Twenty-First Century Fox Inc	FOXA US		U.S. Box Office Release of Movie The Book Thief""
Questar Corp	STR US		Roadshow - West Coast - Day 2	Y 2013
Molex Inc	MOLX US		Annual General Meeting - M&A Vote	Y 2013

Monday, October 14, 2013

5 good Mid Caps

Today I used Barchart to sort the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index for the stocks with the most frequent new highs in the last month. I did a second sort to zero in on the stock from that list that also had positive gains for the past week and month. The list includes Towers Watson & Co (TW), WMS Industries (WMS), Minerals Technologies (MTX) , East West Bankcorp (EWB) and Meredith Corp (MDP):

Towers Watson & Co (TW)