BARCHART MORNING CALL 1/30

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Friday, January 30th, 2015View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

March E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 -0.69%) this morning are down -0.63% and European stocks are down -0.10% on Eurozone deflation concerns after Jan Eurozone consumer prices fell a more-than-expected -0.6% y/y and matched the largest decline since the euro currency was introduced in 1999. Losses in European stocks were limited after the Eurozone Dec unemployment rate unexpectedly declined to the lowest in 28 months. The Russian ruble tumbled to a 1-1/2 month low against the dollar after Russia's central bank cut the 1-week auction rate to 15% from 17%. Credit-default swaps on Russia's government debt rose 3 bp to 617 bp, the highest since March 2009. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +0.39%, Hong Kong -0.36%, China -1.36%, Taiwan -0.69%, Australia +0.34%, Singapore -0.81%, South Korea -0.23%, India -1.68%. China's Shanghai Stock Index fell to a 1-1/2 week low as government regulators begin efforts to cool the growth of margin trading. Commodity prices are mostly higher. Mar crude oil (CLH15 +0.97%) is up +1.32%. Mar gasoline (RBH15 +0.34%) is up +0.30%. Feb gold (GCG15 +0.66%) is up +0.71%. Mar copper (HGH15 +1.16%) is up +1.04%. Agriculture prices are higher. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.26%) is down -0.35%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.23%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.52%. Mar T-note prices (ZNH15 +0.23%) are up +9.5 ticks.
The Eurozone Jan CPI estimate fell -0.6% y/y, a bigger decline than expectations of -0.5% y/y and matched the July 2009 decrease as the biggest drop since the euro currency was introduced in 1999. The Jan core CPI rose +0.6% y/y, less than expectations of +0.7% y/y and the slowest pace of increase since the data series began in 1997.
The Eurozone Dec unemployment rate unexpectedly fell -0.1 to 11.4%, better than expectations of unch at 11.5% and the lowest in 28 months.
German Dec retail sales rose +0.2% m/m, less than expectations of +0.3% m/m, but on an annual basis rose +4.0% y/y, more than expectations of +3.6% y/y and the largest annual increase in 2-1/2 years.
UK Dec net consumer credit rose +0.6 billion pounds, less than expectations of +1.2 billion pounds and the slowest pace of increase in 13 months.
UK Dec mortgage approvals rose 60,300, more than expectations of 59,000.
The Japan Dec jobless rate unexpectedly fell -0.1 to 3.4%, better than expectations of unch at 3.5% and the lowest in 17-1/2 years. The Dec job-to-applicant ratio rose +0.03 to 1.15, better than expectations of unch at 1.12 and the highest in 22-3/4 years.
Japan Dec national CPI rose +2.4% y/y, unch from Nov and higher than expectations of -0.1 to 2.3% y/y. Dec national CPI ex-fresh food rose 2.5% y/y, down -0.2 from Nov and the slowest pace of increase in 9 months. Dec national CPI ex food & energy climbed +2.1% y/y, unch from Nov and right on expectations.
Japan Dec industrial production rose +1.0% m/m, less than expectations of +1.2% m/m, although year-over-year Dec industrial production rose +0.3% y/y, right on expectations.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Today’s Q4 GDP report is expected to ease to +3.1% (q/q annualized) from +5.0% in Q3. Today’s final-Jan U.S. consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan is expected to be unrevised from the early-Jan figure of 98.2, thus leaving the final-Jan figure of 98.2 up by +4.6 points from December’s level. Today’s Q4 employment cost index is expected to show an increase of +0.6% q/q, which would be slightly below the +0.7% increase seen in Q3. Today’s Jan Chicago PMI report is expected to show a -1.3 point decline to 57.5, adding to the -1.9 point decline to 58.8 seen in Dec.
There are 18 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today with notable reports including: MasterCard (consensus $0.67), Chevron (1.64), Tyson Foods (0.73), AbbVie (0.86), Weyerhaeuser (0.29), Eli Lilly (0.73), Ingersoll-Rand (0.70). There are no equity conferences today.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Weyerhaeuser (WY -0.45%) reported Q4 EPS of 27 cents, below consensus of 29 cents.
Mattel (MAT -0.33%) reported Q4 EPS of 52 cents, well below consensus of 91 cents.
Eli Lilli (LLY +1.61%) reported Q4 EPS of 75 cents, better than consensus of 73 cents.
Eastman Chemical (EMN -0.01%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $1.64, higher than consensus of $1.52.
Unisys (UIS -1.21%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.60, well above consensus of $1.27.
Leggett & Platt (LEG +1.30%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 41 cents, less than consensus of 45 cents, and then lowered guidance on fiscal 2015 EPS to $1.90-$2.10, below consensus of $2.10.
Acuity Brands (AYI +0.16%) coverage resumed with a 'Buy' at Stifel witha price target of $185.
C.R. Bard (BCR +1.02%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $2.29, higher than consensus of $2.24.
JDSU (JDSU -2.43%) fell 5% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 EPS of 15 cents, below consensus of 16 cents.
Hanesbrands (HBI +1.44%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $1.46, more than consensus of $1.43.
Biogen (BIIB +0.59%) reported Q4 EPS of $4.09, above consensus of $3.78, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2015 EPS to $16.60-$17.00, better than consensus of $16.37.
Broadcom (BRCM +0.83%) rose 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS ex-SBC of 90 cents, higher than consensus of 87 cents.
Visa (V +0.67%) climbed over 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 EPS of $2.53, better than consensus of $2.49, and then announced a four-for-one stock split.
Principal Financial (PFG +0.29%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.09, higher than consensus of $1.04.
Manitowoc (MTW +0.89%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 27 cents, below consensus of 32 cents.
Google (GOOG +0.13%) reported Q4 EPS of $6.88, weaker than consensus of $7.11.
Amazon.com (AMZN +2.59%) jumped 11% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 EPS of 45 cents, well above consensus of 17 cents.

MARKET COMMENTS

Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 -0.69%) this morning are down -12.75 points (-0.63%). The S&P 500 index on Thursday rebounded from a 1-1/2 week low and closed higher: S&P 500 -1.35%, Dow Jones -1.13%, Nasdaq -0.60%. Bullish factors included (1) the -43,000 decline in U.S. weekly initial unemployment claims to 265,000, more than expectations of -7,000 to 300,000 and the lowest level in 14-3/4 years, and (2) strength in energy producers which recovered from early losses after crude oil rebounded from a 5-3/4 year low and closed higher. A bearish factor was the unexpected -3.7% m/m decline in U.S. Dec pending home sales, weaker than expectations of a +0.5% m/m increase and the biggest decline in a year.
Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH15 +0.23%) this morning are up +9.5 ticks. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices on Thursday closed lower. Closes: TYH5 -9.00, FVH5 -4.75. Bearish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected decline in U.S. weekly jobless claims to the lowest level in 14-3/4 years, and (2) reduced safe-haven demand for T-notes after stocks rallied.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.26%) this morning is down -0.328 (-0.35%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0026 (+0.23%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.62 (-0.52%). The dollar index on Thursday closed higher: Dollar index +0.315 (+0.33%), EUR/USD +0.00324 (-0.29%), USD/JPY -0.3458 (-0.29%). Bullish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected fall in U.S. weekly jobless claims to the lowest level in 14-3/4 years, which signals labor market strength and bolsters speculation the Fed will soon raise interest rates, and (2) the increase in Eurozone Jan economic confidence to a 6-month high, which was supportive for EUR/USD.
Mar WTI crude oil (CLH15 +0.97%) this morning is up +59 cents (+1.32%) and Mar gasoline (RBH15 +0.34%) is up +0.0042 (+0.30%). Mar crude oil and Mar gasoline on Thursday recovered from early losses and closed higher: CLH5 +0.08 (+0.18%), RBH5 +0.0143 (+1.04%). Mar crude posted a 5-3/4 year low on carry-over weakness from Wednesday’s EIA report where U.S. crude inventories climbed to a record high 406.7 million bbl and U.S. crude production rose to 9.213 million bpd, the highest in over 40 years. However, fund short covering near the lows helped crude oil erase its losses and close higher.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR01/30/2015

US	0830 ET	Q4 GDP expected +3.1% q/q annualized, Q3 +5.0%. Q4 personal consumption expected +4.0%, Q3 +3.2%. Q2 GDP price index expected +0.9%, Q3 +1.4%. Q4 GDP core PCE expected +1.1% q/q, Q3 +1.4% q/q.
	0830 ET	Q4 employment cost index expected +0.6%, Q3 +0.7%.
	0900 ET	Jan Milwaukee ISM expected +0.39 to 58.00, Dec -11.32 to 57.61.
	0945 ET	Jan Chicago PMI expected -1.3 to 57.5, Dec -1.9 to 58.8.
	0955 ET	Final-Jan U.S. consumer confidence index (University of Michigan) expected unch at 98.2, prelim-Jan +4.6 to 98.2.
JPN	0000 ET	Japan Dec annualize housing starts expected -14.8% y/y to 900,000, Nov -14.3% y/y to 888,000.
	0100 ET	Japan Dec construction orders, Nov +16.9% y/y
GER	0200 ET	German Dec retail sales expected +0.3% m/m and +3.6% y/y, Nov +0.5% m/m and -0.8% y/y.
UK	0430 ET	UK Dec net consumer credit expected +1.2 billion pounds, Nov +1.3 billion pounds.
	0430 ET	UK Dec mortgage approvals expected 59,000, Nov 59,000.
	0430 ET	UK Dec M4 money supply, Nov unch m/m and -2.8% y/y.
EUR	0500 ET	Eurozone Jan CPI estimate expected -0.5% y/y, Dec -0.2% y/y. Jan CPI core expected +0.7% y/y, Dec +0.7% y/y.
	0500 ET	Eurozone Dec unemployment rate expected unch at +11.5%.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR01/30/2015

Company	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Newell Rubbermaid Inc	NWL US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	0.481
AbbVie Inc	ABBV US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	0.856
Chevron Corp	CVX US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	1.643
Tyco International Plc	TYC US	Bef-mkt	Q1 2015 Earnings Release	Q1 2015	0.491
MasterCard Inc	MA US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	0.674
Weyerhaeuser Co	WY US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	0.287
PACCAR Inc	PCAR US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	1.095
Simon Property Group Inc	SPG US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	2.465
Eli Lilly & Co	LLY US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	0.732
Mattel Inc	MAT US	6:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	0.913
CONSOL Energy Inc	CNX US	6:45	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	0.202
Altria Group Inc	MO US	7:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	0.664
Ingersoll-Rand PLC	IR US	7:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	0.698
Xerox Corp	XRX US	7:15	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	0.288
Tyson Foods Inc	TSN US	7:30	Q1 2015 Earnings Release	Q1 2015	0.727
Tyco International Plc	TYC US	8:00	Q1 2015 Earnings Call	Q1 2015
Legg Mason Inc	LM US	8:00	Q3 2015 Earnings Release	Q3 2015	0.663
Legg Mason Inc	LM US	8:00	Q3 2015 Earnings Call	Q3 2015
Eastman Chemical Co	EMN US	8:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
Newell Rubbermaid Inc	NWL US	8:30	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
Franklin Resources Inc	BEN US	8:30	Q1 2015 Earnings Release	Q1 2015	0.934
Franklin Resources Inc	BEN US	8:30	Q1 2015 Earnings Call - Pre Recorded	C1 2015
Mattel Inc	MAT US	8:30	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
Altria Group Inc	MO US	9:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
AbbVie Inc	ABBV US	9:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
Boston Properties Inc	BXP US	9:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
MasterCard Inc	MA US	9:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
Tyson Foods Inc	TSN US	9:00	Q1 2015 Earnings Call	Q1 2015
Leggett & Platt Inc	LEG US	9:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
Eli Lilly & Co	LLY US	9:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
CONSOL Energy Inc	CNX US	10:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
Weyerhaeuser Co	WY US	10:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
Xerox Corp	XRX US	10:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
Principal Financial Group Inc	PFG US	10:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
Ingersoll-Rand PLC	IR US	10:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
Chevron Corp	CVX US	11:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
Franklin Resources Inc	BEN US	11:00	Q1 2015 Earnings Call	Q1 2015
Tyson Foods Inc	TSN US	11:00	Annual General Meeting	Y 2015
Simon Property Group Inc	SPG US	11:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
PACCAR Inc	PCAR US	12:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
Monsanto Co	MON US	14:30	Annual General Meeting	Y 2015
Computer Sciences Corp	CSC US		Q3 2015 Earnings Release	Q3 2015	1.115

BARCHART MORNING CALL 12/5

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Friday, December 5th, 2014View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 +0.10%) this morning are up +0.08% ahead of U.S. Nov payrolls data and European stocks are up +1.63% after German Oct factory orders exceeded expectations. Stocks also rose and European government bonds rallied, with Italy's 10-year bond yield falling to a record low 1.948%, on speculation the ECB was preparing a package of asset purchases. According to 2 central bank officials familiar with the deliberations, the ECB Governing Council expects to consider a proposal for broad-based asset purchases including sovereign debt at the next meeting on Jan 22. European stocks gained despite the action by the Bundesbank to cut its German GDP and inflation forecasts for this year and next. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +0.19%, Hong Kong +0.71%, China +0.66%, Taiwan -0.20%, Australia -0.62%, Singapore +0.59%, South Korea +0.07%, India -0.37%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index advanced to a 7-1/3 year high as exporters rallied as the yen weakened past 120 yen per dollar for the first time in 7-1/3 years. China's Shanghai Stock Index climbed to a new 3-1/2 year high and is up +9.5% this week amid speculation the PBOC will cut reserve-requirement ratios for banks after lowering interest rate for the first time in 2 years in an attempt to revive economic growth. Commodity prices are mostly lower. Jan crude oil (CLF15 -0.72%) is down -0.99%. Jan gasoline (RBF15 -0.91%) is down -1.08%. Feb gold (GCG15 -0.60%) is down -0.46%. Mar copper (HGH15 +0.55%) is up +0.65%. Agriculture prices are weaker. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.19%) is up +0.20%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.23%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.73% at a fresh 7-1/3 year high. Mar T-note prices (ZNH15 -0.06%) are down -2.5 ticks.
In its biannual report, the Bundesbank cut its 2014 German GDP forecast to +1.4% from a Jun estimate of +1.9% and lowered its 2015 GDP forecast to +1.0% from +2.0%. The Bundesbank also lowered its German 2014 inflation forecast to +0.9% from a Jun projection of +1.1% and cut its 2015 inflation forecast to +1.1% from +1.5%.
German Oct factory orders rose +2.5% m/m and +2.4% y/y, much more than expectations of +0.5% m/m and unch y/y and the strongest in 3 months.
Eurozone Q3 GDP was left unrevised at +0.2% q/q and +0.8% y/y.
The Japan Oct leading index CI fell -1.6 to 104.0, a slightly bigger decline than expectations of -1.5 to 104.1 and the lowest in 1-3/4 years. The Oct coincident index rose +0.4 to 110.2, a larger increase than expectations of +0.2 to 110.0 and the highest in 5 months.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Today’s Nov payroll report is expected to show an increase of +230,000, which would be a bit better than October’s report of +214,000. Today’s Nov unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged from October’s 6-1/3 year low of 5.8%. Today’s Oct U.S. trade deficit is expected to narrow to -$41.2 billion from -$43.0 billion in September. Today’s Oct factory orders report is expected to show a decline of -0.2%, adding to the -0.6% decline seen in September. Today’s Oct consumer credit report is expected to show another strong increase of +$16.5 billion following the September increase of +$15.924 billion. There is only 1 of the Russell 1000 companies that reports earnings today: Big Lots (consensus $-0.05). There are no equity conferences today.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Tyson Foods (TSN -1.93%) was upgraded to 'Conviction Buy' from 'Buy' at Goldman Sachs.
AMC Entertainment (AMC +1.02%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at B. Riley.
IntercontinentalExchange (ICE +0.32%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Citigroup.
Thor Industries (THO -5.68%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at SunTrust.
Big Lots (BIG -1.22%) reported a Q3 EPS loss of -6 cents, a bigger loss than consensus of -5 cents.
Vodafone (VOD -1.04%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Goldman Sachs.
Cormorant Global Healthcare reported a 8.94% passive stake in Quotient (QTNT -0.17%) .
Fiat Chrysler (FCAU -2.51%) slid over 3% in after-hours trading after it filed to sell $2.5 billion of mandatory convertible securities due 2016.
Gabelli reported a 12.37% stake in Cincinnati Bell (CBB -0.88%) .
Synaptics (SYNA -1.15%) soared over 7% in after-hours trading after it raised guidance on Q2 revenue view to $440 million-$460 million from $415 million-$450 million, above consensus of $433.12 million.
Northrop Grumman (NOC -0.80%) announced a new $3 billion share repurchase authorization, and then the company was upgraded to 'Conviction Buy' from 'Buy' at Goldman Sachs.
Ulta Salon (ULTA +0.85%) climbed over 5% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 EPS of 91 cents, higher than consensus of 84 cents.
Cooper Companies (COO -0.45%) dropped over 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 EPS of $1.95, less than consensus of $2.03, and then lowered guidance on fiscal 2015 EPS view to $7.30-$7.70 from $8.20-$8.60, well below consensus of $8.24.
American Eagle (AEO -3.83%) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 22 cents, right on consensus, although Q3 revenue of $854 million was above consensus of $845.95 million.
The Gap (GPS -0.10%) jumped over 2% in after-hours trading after it reported November same-store-sales of $1.72 billion, up 6% y/y.

MARKET COMMENTS

Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 +0.10%) this morning are up +1.75 points (+0.08%). The S&P 500 index on Thursday closed lower: S&P 500 -0.12%, Dow Jones -0.07%, Nasdaq -0.02%. Bearish factors included (1) disappointment the ECB didn’t expand stimulus after ECB President Draghi said the ECB will reassess the effects of existing monetary stimulus “early next year,” and (2) the ECB’s cut in its Eurozone 2014-2016 GDP forecasts. Stocks rebounded from their worst levels after two Eurozone central-bank officials familiar with the deliberations said the ECB was planning for a broad-based asset purchase program next month that includes purchases of sovereign debt.
Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH15 -0.06%) this morning are down -2.5 ticks. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices on Thursday rebounded from a 1-week low and closed higher: TYH5 +7.00, FVH5 +3.25. Supportive factors included (1) European economic concerns after the ECB lowered its Eurozone GDP and inflation forecasts for 2014-2016, and (2) increased safe-haven demand for T-notes as stocks retreated.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.19%) this morning is up +0.176 (+0.20%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0028 (-0.23%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.87 (+0.73%) at a 7-1/3 year high. The dollar index on Thursday retreated from a 5-1/2 year high and closed lower. Closes: Dollar index -0.252 (-0.28%), EUR/USD +0.00679 (+0.55%), USD/JPY unch. The main bearish factor was short-covering in EUR/USD which rebounded from a 2-1/4 year low after ECB President Draghi said policy makers will wait until next quarter to assess whether additional stimulus measures are required. USD/JPY soared to a 7-1/3 year high after the Nikkei and Yomiuri newspapers reported that Prime Minister Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party will boost its majority at the Dec 14 election, which will give Abe a mandate to continue his inflationary and yen-negative fiscal policies.
Jan WTI crude oil (CLF15 -0.72%) this morning is down -66 cents (-0.99%) and Jan gasoline (RBF15 -0.91%) is down -0.0193 (-1.08%). Jan crude and Jan gasoline on Thursday closed lower. Closes: CLF5 -0.57 (-0.85%), RBF5 -0.0112 (-0.68%). Bearish factors included (1) comments from an unnamed person from the Saudi Oil Ministry who said Saudi Arabia has no target for crude prices and will let the market decide at what level oil should trade for now, and (2) the ECB’s cut in its Eurozone 2014 and 2015 GDP forecasts, which signals reduced energy consumption and demand.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR12/05/2014

US	0830 ET	Nov non-farm payrolls expected +230,000, Oct +214,000. Nov private payrolls expected +225,000, Oct +209,000. Nov manufacturing payrolls expected +15,000, Oct +15,000. Nov unemployment rate expected unch at 5.8%.
	0830 ET	Nov avg hourly earnings expected +0.2% m/m and +2.1% y/y, Oct +0.1% m/m and +2.0% y/y. Nov avg weekly hours all-employees expected unch at 34.6 hours.
	0830 ET	Oct trade balance expected -$41.2 billion, Sep -$43.0 billion.
	0845 ET	Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester gives keynote address at the Office of Financial Research 2014 Financial Stability Conference in Washington D.C.
	1000 ET	Oct factory orders expected unch, Sep -0.6%.
	1445 ET	Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer speaks via video to an IMF conference in Washington D.C. on Fiscal Affairs, Past and Future.
	1500 ET	Oct consumer credit expected +$16.450 billion, Sep +$15.924 billion.
JPN	0000 ET	Japan Oct leading index CI expected -1.5 to 104.1, Sep 105.6. Oct coincident index expected +0.2 to 110.0, Sep 109.8.
GER	0200 ET	German Oct factory orders expected +0.5% m/m and unch y/y, Sep +0.8% m/m and -1.0% y/y.
UK	0430 ET	BOE quarterly inflation expectations, Aug +2.8%.
EUR	0500 ET	Revised Eurozone Q3 GDP, previous +0.2% q/q and +0.8% y/y.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR12/05/2014

Company Name	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Sonoco Products Co	SON US	7:50	Investor Meeting	Y 2014
Big Lots Inc	BIG US	8:00	Q3 2015 Earnings Call	Q3 2015
Illinois Tool Works Inc	ITW US	9:00	Investor and Analyst Day	Y 2014
Sigma-Aldrich Corp	SIAL US	10:00	Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting - M&A Vote	Y 2014
JDS Uniphase Corp	JDSU US	12:00	Annual General Meeting	Y 2014
Big Lots Inc	BIG US		Q3 2015 Earnings Release	Q3 2015	-0.053
Twenty-First Century Fox Inc	FOXA US		U.S. Box Office Release of Movie The Pyramid""
Public Service Enterprise Group Inc	PEG US		Investor Meeting	Y 2014
Actavis plc	ACT US		FDA Adcomm, ceftazidime/avibactam, urinary tract and intra-abdominal infections
Incyte Corp	INCY US		PDUFA, Jakafi, polycythemia vera (PV)
Premier Inc	PINC US		Annual General Meeting

BARCAHRT MORNING CALL 9/11

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Thursday, September 11th, 2014View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

September E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 -0.25%) this morning are down -0.26% and European stocks are down -0.24% after the EU said that additional sanctions on Russia will enter into force on Friday. Also, signs of weaker economic conditions in China that may undercut global growth hurt stocks after Chinese consumer inflation reached a 4-month low last month. Asian stocks closed mostly lower: Japan +0.76%, Hong Kong -0.17%, China -0.37%, Taiwan -0.37%, Australia -0.51%, Singapore +0.26%, South Korea -0.87%, India -0.23%. Weakness in the yen propelled Japanese exporters and pushed the Nikkei Stock Index up to a 7-1/2 month high. Commodity prices are mostly lower. Oct crude oil (CLV14 -1.17%) is down -1.10% at a fresh 16-month low after the IEA cut its 2015 global oil demand forecast to 93.8 million bpd, -165,000 bpd less than predicted last month. Oct gasoline (RBV14 -0.80%) is down -0.73% at a 10-month low. Dec gold (GCZ14 -0.29%) is down -0.37%. Dec copper (HGZ14 -1.17%) is down -1.32% at a 2-3/4 month low on dollar strength and signs of a slowing Chinese economy. Agriculture and livestock prices are lower ahead of today's Sep WASDE report from the USDA. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.03%) is up +0.01%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.02%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.25% at a new 5-3/4 year high as the yen weakened further on speculation of additional BOJ monetary stimulus after BOJ Governor Kuroda told Japanese Prime Minister Abe that the BOJ will do its "utmost" to achieve its inflation target. Dec T-note prices (ZNZ14 +0.03%) are up +1.5 ticks.
ECB Governing Council member and Bank of Italy Governor Visco said that "In the Eurozone, recent data indicates that growth perspectives remain subdued and economic weakness is no longer confined to countries under stress." He added that "averting the risk that a too-prolonged period of low inflation would eventually lead to a dis-anchoring of medium-term inflation expectations is paramount" and "if needed, further monetary-policy actions can be undertaken."
The IfW Kiel economic institute cut its 2014 German GDP estimate to +1.4% from a Jun forecast of +.0% and cut its 2015 German GDP estimate to +1.9% from +2.5%, citing geopolitical risks damping exports
China Aug CPI rose +2.0% y/y, less than expectations of +2.2% y/y and the slowest pace of increase in 4 months. Aug PPI fell -1.2% y/y, a bigger decline than expectations of -1.1% y/y.
Japan Q3 BSI large all-industry business conditions rose to 11.1 from -14.6 in Q2. Q3 BSI large manufacturing business conditions rose to 12.7 from -13.9 in Q2.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

The market is expecting today’s initial unemployment claims report to show a small -2,000 decline to 300,000 following last week’s +4,000 increase to 302,000. The Treasury today will sell $13 billion of 30-year T-bonds, concluding this week’s $61 billion coupon package. There are two Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: Ulta Salons (consensus: $0.83), Kroger ((0.69).
Equity conferences the rest of this week include: UBS Best of Americas Conference on Tue-Thu, Goldman Sachs Communacopia Conference on Wed-Fri, UBS Global Paper & Forest Products Conference on Thu, BIO Latin America Conference on Thu, and Credit Suisse Asian Technology Conference on Thu.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Macy's (M -0.86%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Sterne Agee.
lululemon (LULU -0.75%) reported Q2 EPS of 33 cents, higher than consensus of 29 cents.
BofA/Merrill kept its 'Buy' rating on Signet Jewelers (SIG +0.42%) and raised its price target on the stock to $140 from $125.
Men's Wearhouse (MW -0.35%) reported Q2 adjusted EPS of $1.10, better than consensus of $1.06.
JDSU (JDSU +3.33%) jumped over 12% in after-hours trading after it said it will separate into two publicly traded companies.
CBOE Holdings (CBOE +1.08%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at Deutsche Bank with a pric target of $63.
CME Group (CME +0.44%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at Deutsche Bank with a price target of $85.
Edwards Lifesciences (EW +1.46%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at Sterne Agee with a price target of $110.
Restoration Hardware (RH +0.05%) reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 67 cents, higher than consensus of 64 cents.
Intel (INTC +0.32%) announced that it has signed a definitive agreement to buy over 1,400 patents and patent applications from an affiliate of The Gores Group, which obtained the patents in the Chapter 11 bankruptcy of Powerwave Technologies.

MARKET COMMENTS

Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 -0.25%) this morning are down -5.25 points (-0.26%). The S&P 500 Index on Wednesday recovered from a 3-week low and closed higher: S&P 500 +0.36%, Dow Jones +0.32%, Nasdaq +0.81%. Bullish factors included (1) the prospects for a sustained peace in Ukraine after Ukrainian President Poroshenko said that Russia has withdrawn more than 70% of its troops from his country, and (2) a rally in shares of Apple that lifted technology stocks. The S&P 500 had fallen to a 3-week low on concern over higher interest rates after the yield on the 10-year T-note climbed to a 5-week high.
Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ14 +0.03%) this morning are up +1.5 ticks. Dec 10-year T-note futures prices on Wednesday fell to a 5-week low and closed lower. Bearish factors included (1) supply pressures ahead of today's $13 billion auction of 30-year T-bonds, and (2) carry-over selling from Tuesday after a research paper from the San Francisco Fed said investors may be underestimating how quickly the Fed could raise interest rates. Closes: TYZ4 -5.50, FVZ4 -2.75.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.03%) this morning is up +0.007 (+0.01%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0003 (+0.02%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.27 (+0.25%) at a new 5-3/4 year high. The dollar index on Wednesday closed slightly lower as prices consolidated below Tuesday's 14-month high. USD/JPY surged to a 5-3/4 year high as the yen plunged on speculation the BOJ may expand stimulus to combat deflation risks after Japan Aug PPI unexpectedly fell -0.2% m/m, less than expectations of unch m/m and the biggest drop in 22 months. Closes: Dollar index -0.039 (-0.05%), EUR/USD -0.00205 (-0.16%), USD/JPY +0.645 (+0.61%).
Oct WTI crude oil (CLV14 -1.17%) this morning is down -$1.01 a barreal (-1.10%) at a fresh 16-month low and Oct gasoline (RBV14 -0.80%) is down -0.0184 (-0.73%) at a new 10-month low. Oct crude and gasoline prices on Wednesday slumped with Oct crude at a 16-month low and Oct gasoline at a 10-month low: CLV4 -1.08 (-1.16%), RBV4 -0.0219 (-0.86%). Bearish factors included (1) the action by OPEC to lower its 2014 global demand forecast for its crude by -200,000 bpd to 29.5 million bpd, (2) the +78,000 bbl increase in crude supplies at Cushing, OK, the fifth increase in six weeks, and (3) the unexpected +2.38 million bbl increase in weekly EIA gasoline supplies, more than expectations of no change.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR09/11/2014

US	0830 ET	Weekly initial unemployment claims expected -2,000 to 300,000, previous +4,000 to 302,000. Weekly continuing claims expected +26,000 to 2.490 million, previous -64,000 to 2.464 million.
	0830 ET	USDA weekly Export Sales.
	1100 ET	Treasury announces amount of 10-year TIPS to be auctioned Sep 18 (previous $15 billion).
	1200 ET	Sep WASDE crop production.
	1300 ET	Treasury auctions $13 billion 30-year T-bonds.
	1400 ET	Aug monthly budget statement expected -$130.00 billion, Jul -$94.59 billion.
GER	0200 ET	Revised German Aug CPI (EU harmonized), previous unch m/m and +0.8% y/y.
EUR	0400 ET	ECB publishes monthly report.
	1500 ET	ECB President Mario Draghi speaks at an event in Milan.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR09/11/2014

Company Name	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Progressive Corp/The	PGR US	Bef-mkt	August 2014 Sales and Revenue Release	2014
Cooper Cos Inc/The	COO US	8:00	Analyst Meeting	Y 2014
AptarGroup Inc	ATR US	8:00	Analyst Day	Y 2014
BB&T Corp	BBT US	9:00	Investor Day	Y 2014
Kroger Co/The	KR US	10:00	Q2 2015 Earnings Call	Q2 2015
Cheniere Energy Inc	LNG US	10:00	Annual General Meeting
Cheniere Energy Inc	LNG US	10:00	Annual General Meeting
VMware Inc	VMW US	10:00	Analysts and Investor Meeting	Y 2014
Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance Inc	ULTA US	17:00	Q2 2015 Earnings Call	Q2 2015
Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance Inc	ULTA US	Aft-mkt	Q2 2015 Earnings Release	Q2 2015	0.825
H&R Block Inc	HRB US		Annual General Meeting
Kroger Co/The	KR US		Q2 2015 Earnings Release	Q2 2015	0.693
JDS Uniphase Corp	JDSU US		Analyst Day	Y 2014

BARCHART MORNING ALL 8/13

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Wednesday, August 13th, 2014View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

September E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 +0.47%) this morning are up +0.49% on expectations that today's U.S. Jul retail sales will be strong and European stocks are up +1.00% on better-than-expected earnings results from E.ON SE and Swiss Life Holdings AG. Asian stocks closed mostly higher: Japan +0.35%, Hong Kong +0.81%, China +0.08%, Taiwan +0.74%, Australia -0.28%, Singapore -0.06%, South Korea +0.98%, India +0.15%. China's Shanghai Stock Index recovered losses and rose to an 8-month high after weaker-than-expected Chinese economic data on new loans, industrial production and retail sales boosted speculation the government will increase economic stimulus measures. Commodity prices are mixed. Sep crude oil (CLU14 -0.10%) is up +0.04%. Sep gasoline (RBU14 -0.37%) is down -0.29%. Dec gold (GCZ14 -0.10%) is down -0.14%. Sep copper (HGU14 -0.67%) is down -0.59% at a 1-1/2 month low. Agriculture and livestock prices are mixed with Oct cattle down -0.19% at a 2-month low and Oct hogs down -0.64% at a 4-3/4 month low. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.13%) is up +0.16%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.07% after Eurozone Jun industrial production unexpectedly declined for a second month. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.20%. GBP/USD slid to a 2-1/4 month low after BOE Governor Carney said that global political risks and weakness in the Eurozone might weigh on Britain's recovery and that the BOE won't raise interest rates too soon or too fast. Sep T-note prices (ZNU14 -0.06%) are down -4 ticks.
China Jul new yuan loans were 385.2 billion yuan, less than half of expectations of 780.0 billion yuan and the smallest increase in 4-1/2 years.
China Jul industrial production rose +9.0% y/y, less than expectations of +9.2% y/y.
China Jul retail sales rose +12.2% y/y, less than expectations of +12.5% y/y.
Eurozone Jun industrial production unexpectedly fell for a second month as it dropped -0.3% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.4% m/m. On an annual basis, Jun industrial production was unchanged y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.2% y/y.
UK Jul jobless claims fell -33,600, more than expectations of -30,000. The Jul claimant count rate fell -0.1 to 3.0%, right on expectations and the lowest in 5-3/4 years.
The UK Jun ILO unemployment rate fell -0.1 to 6.4% for the 3 months through Jun, right on expectations and the lowest in 5-1/2 years.
UK Jun avg weekly earnings fell -0.2% in the 3 months through Jun, a bigger decline than expectations of -0.1% and the largest decrease in 5 years. Jun weekly earnings ex-bonus rose +0.6% in the 3 months though Jun, less than expectations of +0.7%.
Japan Q2 GDP fell -6.8% q/q annualized, the largest pace of contraction in 3-1/2 years, although less than expectations of -7.0% q/q annualized. The Q2 GDP deflator rose +2.0% y/y, more than expectations of +1.6% y/y and the fastest pace since the data were first complied in 1995.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Today’s July retail sales report is expected to show a moderate increase of +0.2% and +0.4% ex-autos, thus matching June’s report of +0.2% and +0.4% ex-autos. The Treasury today will sell $24 billion of 10-year T-notes. There are 4 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today: Deere (consensus $2.20), Macy's (0.86), NetApp (0.57), Cisco Systems (0.53). Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Jefferies Global Industrials Conference on Mon-Thu, Oppenheimer Technology, Internet & Communications Conference on Tue-Wed, JP Morgan Auto Conference on Wed, Canaccord Genuity Growth Conference on Wed-Thu, and Barclays Summer Utilities Conference on Thu.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Deere & Co. (DE -0.78%) reported Q3 EPS of $2.33, higher than consensus of $2.20, but then said worldwide sales of agriculture and turf equipment are forecast to decrease by about 10% for fiscal-year 2014.
SeaWorld (SEAS +0.32%) reported Q2 EPS of 43 cents, well below consensus of 59 cents.
Southern Company (SO +0.37%) was downgraded to 'Underweight' from 'Equal Weight' at Morgan Stanley.
Demandware (DWRE +1.04%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Goldman Sachs.
Ford (F +0.23%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Stifel.
CSR (CSRE +0.25%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Jefferies.
Fossil (FOSL -0.93%) reported Q2 EPS of 98 cents, better than consensus of 96 cents.
JDSU (JDSU -0.50%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 14 cents, higher than consensus of 13 cents.
King Digital (KING +0.17%) plummeted over 20% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 59 cents, right on consensus, but reported Q2 revenue of $593.5 million, below consensus of $605.67 million.
Cree (CREE -0.99%) slipped 7% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 EPS of 42 cents, better than consensus of 41 cents, but then lowered guidance on Q1 EPS to 40 cents to 45 cents, below consensus of 46 cents.

MARKET COMMENTS

Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 +0.47%) this morning are up +9.50 points (+0.49%). The S&P 500 index on Tuesday closed lower: S&P 500 -0.16%, Dow Jones -0.06%, Nasdaq -0.13%. The main bearish factor was negative carry-over from a slide in European stocks after the German Aug ZEW survey expectations of economic growth slumped -18.5 to 8.6, a much bigger decline than expectations of -10.1 to 17.0 and the lowest in 20 months. Stock losses were contained on signs of strength in the U.S. labor market after U.S. Labor Department data showed U.S. employers posted 4.67 million job offers in June, up +2.1% m/m and the most monthly job openings in 13-1/2 years.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU14 -0.06%) this morning are down -4 ticks. Sep 10-year T-note futures prices on Tuesday closed lower. Bearish factors included (1) signs of strength in the U.S. labor market after Labor Department data showed U.S. employers posted 4.67 million job offers in June, the most in 13-1/2 years, and (2) slack demand for the Treasury’s $27 billion auction of 3-year T-notes that had a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.03, well below the 12-auction average of 3.34. Closes: TYU4 -3.00, FVU4 +0.50.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.13%) this morning is up +0.133 (+0.16%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0009 (-0.07%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.20 (+0.20%). The dollar index on Tuesday closed higher on bullish factors that included (1) weakness in EUR/USD after the German Aug ZEW investor confidence fell to the lowest in 20 months, and (2) increased safe-haven demand for the dollar as stocks fell. Closes: Dollar index +0.034 (+0.04%), EUR/USD -0.00159 (-0.12%), USD/JPY +0.071(+0.07%).
Sep WTI crude oil (CLU14 -0.10%) this morning is down -4 cents (-0.04%) and Sep gasoline (RBU14 -0.37%) is down -0.0079 (-0.29%). Sep crude and gasoline prices on Tuesday closed lower: CLU4 -0.76 (-0.77%), RBU4 -0.0174 (-0.63%). Bearish factors included (1) demand concerns after the IEA cut its 2014 global oil demand estimate by -180,000 barrels a day and cut its 2015 global oil demand estimate by -90,000 barrels a day, and (2) dollar strength. Losses were contained on expectations that Wednesday’s weekly EIA data will show crude stockpiles declined for the seventh consecutive week.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR08/13/2014

US	0700 ET	Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous +1.6% with purchase sub-index -1.3% and refi sub-index +3.8%.
	0830 ET	Jul retail sales expected +0.2% and +0.4% ex autos, Jun +0.2% and +0.4% ex autos.
	0905 ET	New York Fed President William Dudley delivers opening remarks and Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren delivers the keynote address at the New York Feds conference on the risks of wholesale funding.
	1000 ET	Jun business inventories expected +0.4%, May +0.5%.
	1030 ET	EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
	1300 ET	Treasury auctions $24 billion 10-year T-notes.
CHI	0130 ET	China Jul industrial production expected +9.2% y/y, Jun +9.2% y/y. Jul retail sales expected +12.5% y/y, Jun +12.4% y/y.
GER	0200 ET	Revised German Jul CPI (EU harmonized), previous +0.3% m/m and +0.8% y/y.
	0200 ET	German Jul wholesale price index, Jun -0.1% m/m and -0.8% y/y.
UK	0430 ET	UK Jul jobless claims change expected -30,000, Jun -36,300. Jul claimant count rate expected -0.1 to 3.0%.
	0430 ET	UK Jun avg weekly earnings expected -0.1% 3-month through Jun, May +0.3% 3-months through May. Jun weekly earnings ex-bonus expected +0.7% 3-months through Jun, May +0.7% 3-months through May.
	0430 ET	UK Jun ILO unemployment rate expected -0.1 to 6.4% 3-months through Jun, May +6.5% 3-months through May.
	0530 ET	BOE release quarterly inflation report.
	1901 ET	UK Jul RICS house price balance expected 51%, Jun 53%.
EUR	0500 ET	Eurozone Jun industrial production expected +0.4% m/m and +0.2% y/y, May -1.1% m/m and +0.5% y/y.
JPN	1950 ET	Japan Jun machine orders expected +15.3% m/m and +3.0% y/y, May -19.5% m/m and -14.3% y/y.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR08/13/2014

Company Name	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Deere & Co	DE US	Bef-mkt	Q3 2014 Earnings Release	Q3 2014	2.204
Progressive Corp/The	PGR US	Bef-mkt	July 2014 Sales and Revenue Release	2014
Pinnacle Foods Inc	PF US	Bef-mkt	Q2 2014 Earnings Release	Q2 2014	0.333
SeaWorld Entertainment Inc	SEAS US	Bef-mkt	Q2 2014 Earnings Release	Q2 2014	0.582
Macy's Inc	M US	8:00	Q2 2015 Earnings Release	Q2 2015	0.858
WW Grainger Inc	GWW US	8:00	July 2014 Sales and Revenue Call	2014
WW Grainger Inc	GWW US	8:00	July 2014 Sales and Revenue Release	2014
Jack Henry & Associates Inc	JKHY US	8:45	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
SeaWorld Entertainment Inc	SEAS US	9:00	Q2 2014 Earnings Call	Q2 2014
Pinnacle Foods Inc	PF US	9:30	Q2 2014 Earnings Call	Q2 2014
Computer Sciences Corp	CSC US	10:00	Annual General Meeting	Y 2014
Deere & Co	DE US	10:00	Q3 2014 Earnings Call	Q3 2014
Tahoe Resources Inc	THO CN	10:00	Q2 2014 Earnings Call	Q2 2014
Veritiv Corp	VRTV US	10:00	Q2 2014 Earnings Call	Q2 2014
Macy's Inc	M US	10:30	Q2 2015 Earnings Call	Q2 2015
JM Smucker Co/The	SJM US	11:00	Annual General Meeting	Y 2014
NetApp Inc	NTAP US	16:01	Q1 2015 Earnings Release	Q1 2015	0.57
Cisco Systems Inc	CSCO US	16:30	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	0.528
Cisco Systems Inc	CSCO US	16:30	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
NetApp Inc	NTAP US	17:30	Q1 2015 Earnings Call	Q1 2015
Twenty-First Century Fox Inc	FOXA US		U.S. Box Office Release of Movie Let's Be Cops""
Pfizer Inc	PFE US		CDC ACIP Meeting, use of Prevnar 13 pneumococcal vaccine in adults
Xilinx Inc	XLNX US		Annual General Meeting
Athlon Energy Inc	ATHL US		Q2 2014 Earnings Release	Q2 2014	0.276
Veritiv Corp	VRTV US		Q2 2014 Earnings Release	Q2 2014