The market gave me whiplash

It's the weekend again and time to take stock of the market. It was a very confusing week. One day up then the next day down , sometimes the fair value is down before the market opens but the market closes up by the end of the day. What's an investor supposed to do? Don't let the headlines confuse you, just look at the facts. Look at the three handy yardsticks I make from the data I find on Barchart. I use three because no single yardstick is a complete barometer of the market.

Value Line Index -- Contains 1700 stocks so it's much broader than the S&P 500 or the very narrow Dow 30 -- This week the Index was down

• Down by 5.50% for the week
• Had 2 up days and 3 down days
• Had 2 up weeks and 3 down weeks
• Had 3 up months and 2 down months
• Closed Friday below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• Barchart technical sell signal of 64% -- 2 buy, 1 hold and 10 sells

Barchart Market Momentum -- Contains approximately 6000 stocks -- Percentage of stocks closing above their Daily Moving Averages for various time frames -- More than 50% bullish -- Less than 50% bearish -- Very bearish this week

• 20 DMA -- only 10.20% closed above Friday -- 27.67% last week -- 77.65% last month
• 50 DMA -- only 18.13% closed above Friday -- 40.07% last week -- 85.12% last month
• 100 DMA -- only 36.67% closed above Friday -- 60.96% last week -- 86.41% last month

Ratio of stocks hitting new highs to stocks hitting new lows for various time frames -- 1.0+ bullish, 1.0 neutral, less than .99 bearish -- major bearish signal

• 1 month ratio of stocks hitting new highs/new lows -- 156/2906 = .05
• 3 month ratio of stocks hitting new highs/new lows -- 111/1692 = .07
• 6 month ratio of stocks hitting new highs/new lows -- 84/846 = .10

Investment Strategy -- The market is trending downward and the brief reversals on last Monday and Friday can't change that. I am not panicking. I will continue to cull stocks trading below their 50 day moving averages if I feel that in the short run they are not showing signs of recovery. I will hold off buying replacements until the market as measured by the Value Line Index is again trading above its 20 day moving averages.

Trade with your brain not with your emotions!

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters on Financial Tides and Barchart Portfolio Blogs. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.

Disclosure: No positions mentioned

Investor Confidence Crumbles

" Investor Confidence Crumbles" was the headline on my morning read in the Financial Times this morning. My first thought was: Is just confidence down? What about the economy?

My yardstick for measuring the economy is the monthly report for the
Conference Board's Leading Economic Index published just yesterday. Now comes the bad news. The Index has been positive every month since October 2009. This was the first month that Index reversed itself. The following components were negative, beginning with the largest:

• Building permits
• Supplier deliveries (vendor performance)
• Real money supply
• Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance ( inverted)
• Index of consumer expectations
• Manufacturer's orders for consumer goods and materials

My own blog site is called Financial Tides. I chose the name from what I learned when I received my American Red Cross Junior Life Saving Badge at age 14. When you are caught in a rip tide or in an inlet and get caught in an outgoing tide you must swim with the tide to survive. If you try to swim against the tide you will drown. You should first swim with the tide then swim sideways to get yourself out.

Maybe now you should do the same thing with your portfolio. Trim losing stocks quickly. Don't replace them immediately till you feel the tide has changed. Now is not the time to swim against the tide. You just might drown.

Both the stock market and the economy are in retreat and traveling in the same negative direction. Next month if both the economy and the market are in the same direction 2 months in a row I'll decide what to do.

Right now, I'm swimming sideways and taking myself out of this rip tide. How about you?

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes about financial matters here and on

Barchart Pofrtfilio Blogs, Seeking Alpha and Top Stocks. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com

Financial Tides reviews TECHTARGET ( TTGT ) a leading online Information Technology media company, provides IT companies with ROI-focused marketing programs to generate leads, shorten sales cycles, and grow revenues. The company is also a leading provider of independent, peer and vendor content, a leading distributor of white papers, and a leading producer of vendor-sponsored Webcasts and Podcasts for the IT market. Its Web sites are complemented by numerous invitation-only events and two magazines. TechTarget provides proven lead generation and branding programs to numerous advertisers including Cisco, Dell, EMC, HP, IBM, Intel, Microsoft, SAP and Symantec. Their client list for other services also includes Google and SunMicrosystems. The company distributes most of its products through over 50 on-line websites.

This momentum play has risen 20.74% in the last 30 days hitting 11 new highs in the last 20 trading sessions. This consistent momentum has triggered 10 of 13 technical buy signals on Barchart. The stock trades at 5.88 with a 50 day moving average of 5.11.

Wall Street has noticed with 3 buy and 4 hold reports published. Double digit increases in sales and earnings are expected. Sales are estimated to increase 10.00% this year and 11.60% next year. Earnings are predicted to increase 52.90% this year 23.10% next year and continue for 5 years at an annual rate of 22.00%

Investor sentiment is high on Motley Fool with the All Stars voting 15 to 5 that the stock will beat the market. Fool reports that columnists have been positive 5 to 0.

This momentum play has:

• Positive investor sentiment with experienced investors
• Wall Street writing positive articles and recommendations with projections of double digit increases in sales and earnings
• Recent and consistent price appreciation with a 64% overall Barchart technical buy signal

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters on Financial Tides and Barchart Portfolio Blogs. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com

Disclosure: No positions in TTGT at the time of publication

Growth in generic drugs

Financial Tides likes Watson Pharmaceuticals, Inc. ( WPI ) a pharmaceutical company primarily engaged in the development, production, marketing and distribution of both branded and off-patent pharmaceutical products. The company's branded pharmaceutical business operates primarily in three specialty areas: Dermatology, Women's Health and General Products. The company's products include therapeutic and preventive agents generally sold by prescription or over-the-counter for the treatment of human diseases and disorders.


The big story is in the acquisition of the Arrow Group. Although the acquisition required the issuance of 17 million shares that dilutes earning per share, overall sales should benefit because it will allow the company to enter new over seas markets. Growth will come in new offerings of generic drugs in the areas of urology, birth control and a new generic version of Lipitor one of the largest selling brand names on the planet.


This is a momentum play and the stock hit 6 new highs in the last 30 days even in this soft market. The growth in price has been steady so it earned a 100% overall Barchart buy signal having buy signals on all 13 technical indicators. The stock appreciated 2.58% in the last 30 days and trades around 43.73 with a 50 day moving average of 42.18.

Investor sentiment is high as measured on Motley Fool with the CAPS members voting 148 to 17 that the stock will beat the market. The All Stars have similar feelings with a vote of 55 to 4.

Wall Street analysts have noticed this stock and have 5 buy and 9 hold reports published. They look for double digit growth in both sales and earnings. Sales are predicted to increase 25.80% this year and 11.10% next year. Earnings growth is forcasted to be 25.20% this year, 11.50% next year and a 5 year compounded growth rate of 10.42% annually.

This stock deserves your attention because:

• The acquisition of Arrow group opens new foreign markets for distribution


• New offerings of generic drugs are coming on line


• Barchart technical indicators have recognized solid and consistent price appreciation with a 100% over all technical buy signal


• Investor sentiment is positive


• Fundamental Wall Street analysts have predicted double digit increases in sales and earnings

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on investing on Financial Tides and Barchart Portfolio Blogs. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.

Disclosure: No positions in WPI at the time of publication

Other analyses by the same author:

Baidu -- BIDU

VeriSign -- VRSN

Chico's -- CHS

Baidu -- 600# gorilla you can't ingnore

Before you all jump on me and talk about the impossibility of sustained growth and the 59 times EPS ratio let me interject my reasoning. In China and the Asian continent in general Google and Baidu are not on a level playing field. Google just doesn't seem to know how to play ball in Asia. They are trying to use western rules in an eastern game and fail to realize all the referees are hometown Chinese boys.

The Chinese government will make sure Baidu succeeds in China no matter what. They have over 1/2 of the world's population and are doing much better than we are in Africa and the Middle East. Baidu even has a Japanese search engine: www.baidu.jp.

Everyday more and more analysts are initiating coverage of this stock and now even Value Line has picked up this stock and rates it #1 for timeliness.

I'll let other tell you all the negatives and I'll explain what the stock has going for it.

As I've said more and more firms are beginning to follow this stock with 21 already on board with 13 buy and 8 hold recommendations released. The numbers they project are all most too good to be true. They look for increases in sales of 66.70% this year and 51.70% next year. Even more aggressive EPS growth is forcasted with an EPS increase of 92.10% this year, 55.40% next year and a 5 year compounded growth rate of 44.89%. Presently trading around 69 they have a 74 to 78 price target. Total return for the past 3 years has been 466.7%!

There is a big investor sentiment on Motley Fool with the CAPS members voting that the stock will beat the market by a vote of 3,286 to 642 and the more experienced All Stars voting 857 to 178.

For technical coverage Barchart notes a price pull back lately but still has 10 of their 13 technical indicators signaling buy for a 72% technical buy signal. Even with the pull back the stock went up 13.92% in the last month and hit new highs in 8 of the last 20 trading sessions. It trades above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages at around 69.54 with a 50 day moving average of 63.61.

Here are the pros and cons:
Pros --

• High investor sentiment and more firms initiating coverage every week
• China will control internet access to over 1/2 of the world's population -- I empathize CONTROL
• Baidu is a Chinese hometown boy
• Wall Street predicts high double digit growth in sales and earnings
• Presently selling at 69 with Wall Street targets of 75 to 78
• 72% Barchart technical buy signal

Cons --

• 59 times PE ratio

For those of you that subscribe to the bigger fool theory even you can see there is a lot of interest in this stock and a lot more fools are jumping on board every day. Don't bet the farm on this stock but don't ignore it either. Buy a little bit and put a moving stop loss at the 100 day moving average and you should be alright.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who blogs on investing on Financial Tides and Barchart Portfolio Blogs. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com

Disclosure: No positions in BIDU at the time of publication

The Internet is here to stay -- Profit from it

Having a successful investment portfolio is not just stock picking; its also portfolio management. Don't be afraid to cut loose stocks that don't meet your criteria and always have a list of stocks you'd like to buy if conditions are right.

The Internet is growing by unbelievable leaps and bounds and companies properly positioned to take advantage of that growth should benefit. VeriSign ( VRSN ) is one of the leading providers of trusted infrastructure services to website owners, enterprises, electronic commerce service providers and individuals. The company's domain name registration, digital certificate, global registry and payment services provide the critical web identity, authentication and transaction infrastructure that online businesses need to establish their web identities and to conduct secure electronic commerce, or e-commerce, and communications.


The company has initiated Project Apollo which is a 10 year initiative to increase its infrastructure capacity by 1,000 times its present size. Since they sell Internet access could that mean a 1000 times increase in revenue? Probably not as sales prices per unit of data will come down and margins might get squeezed but growth is still in the picture. They are also buying back $54 million in share to increase shareholder value.

Wall Street has taken notice with 12 buy and 7 hold recommendations published. Analysts estimate sales will increase by 5.90% this year and 10.40% next year. The double digit growth in earnings is what interests me. An EPS growth of 19.50% this year and 15.70% next year is predicted. The forecasted 5 year annual compounded EPS growth rate is expected to continue at a rate of 12.64%.

Investor sentiment is high on Motley Fool with the CAPS members voting that the stock will beat the market by a vote of 245 to 39 with the All Stars in agreement 65 to 9. The Wall Street column its Fool follows have been positive also by 10 to 1.

Is this the right time to buy? Let's look to Barchart for the technical price evaluation. Barchart has a buy signal on all 13 of its technical indicators for a 100% buy signal. The stock is presently trading above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving average and hit 7 new highs in the last 20 trading sessions. The stock has enjoyed an 8.08% price increase in the last month and presently trades at 28.68 with a 50 day moving average of 26.80.

VeriSign (VSRN ) meets my criteria for a buy:

• Wall Street analysts have buy recommendations released with increases in sales and double digit increases in earnings projected
• There is a positive investor sentiment
• The stock is presently enjoying positive price momentum and has a 100% Barchart technical buy signal

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who blogs on investing on Financial Tides and

Barchart Portfolio blogs. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.

Disclosure: No positions in VRSN at the time of publication

A lesson from Peter Lynch

Years ago I remember reading an interview of Peter Lynch where he was asked how he kept coming up with new and original investing ideas. He mentioned how when he went shopping in the mall with his wife he'd sit outside a new store he never heard of and watch not only how many people went in and out but how many of them were carrying out bags of new purchases. He would then go back to his office and research that company. I recently had one of those Peter Lynch moments.

I was visiting my Mom in Fort Lauderdale and since my daughter was going to get married soon on the beach at Isle of Palms near Charleston I thought it might be nice to buy my Mom a new outfit for the wedding so she would look really nice in the wedding pictures. We went to the Galleria Mall on Sunrise Boulevard and while we were walking down the mall I thought I'd steer her into Chico's. I knew my Mom never shopped there but decided to go in anyway.

The outfits were a little more trendy then what Mom usually buys and I didn't want her looking at the price tags first as she always did. I spotted a very stylishly dressed saleslady named Dahlia and whispered to her how much I wanted to spend and how I wanted to push my Mom outside her comfort zone. She took right over sat Mom down and started bring out complete pairings for Mom to try on. While Mom was trying stuff on I noticed the heavy store traffic and how many women were going out with loaded bags. By the way Dahlia and my Mom finally decided on a really great looking outfit along with all the accessories and we had enough left in the budget to go find some shoes and a matching bag.

I decided to be like Peter Lynch and do my research after a successful shopping trip and got a nice surprise.

Chico's (CHS) has around 1100 stores under the Chico's, White House/Black House and Soma brands. Most stores are company owned and they sell mainly private label items to the more affluent 40 year and up woman who are looking for a one stop fashion store.

This year they seemed poised for a turn around and are improving not only same store sales but the bottom line as well. Wall Street has discovered the stock and has 7 buy and 10 hold recommendations published. Sales are estimated to increase 11.50% this year and 8.40% next year. Earnings are expected to be the real story with EPS increases of 70.50% this year 30.70% next year and a continued 5 year compounded annual growth rate of 16.71%.

Investor sentiment on Motley Fool is high with CAPS members voting 708 to 127 that the stock will beat the market. The more experienced All Stars agree by a vote of 180 to 26.

Technically the stock price has had a little pull back lately ( which might be good for long term investors ) and is trading around 14.15. I think if there are more reports of increased sales and earnings and this stock breaks through the 14.50 level it could go all the way to 25.

Even if you don't buy the stock stop in the Chico's at the Galleria Mall and say hi to Dahlia. Put yourself in her able hands and you'll look as good as my Mom did in her grand daughter's wedding pictures.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on investing on Financial Tides and
Barchart Portfolio blogs. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com

Disclosure: No positions in CHS at the time of publication

Obama puts the space program back in the 50's

The announcement that the Obama administration is winding down the US space program for budgetary reasons is one of the saddest announcements that any boomer can hear. When I was a child my heroes were Buck Rodgers, Flash Gordon, the Lone Ranger, Roy Rogers and of course Chuck Yeager, Alan Shepard and John Glenn. They all were so real yet unreal to me. One of my most proudest possessions was a model of the X-15 I built with my own hands. It was a simple time when TV was not 24 hours a day and signed off every night with videos of Air Force jets flying high in the clouds and the words of High Flight by John Gillespie Magee, Jr:

Oh! I have slipped the surly bonds of Earth and danced the skies on laughter-silvered wings; Sunward I've climbed, and joined the tumbling mirth of sun-split clouds, — and done a hundred things you have not dreamed of — wheeled and soared and swung high in the sunlit silence. Hov'ring there, I've chased the shouting wind along, and flung my eager craft through footless halls of air. . . .
Up, up the long, delirious burning blue I've topped the wind-swept heights with easy grace where never lark, or ever eagle flew —And, while with silent, lifting mind I've trod the high untrespassed sanctity of space, put out my hand, and touched the face of God.

I could then go to sleep knowing that my super heroes and God were there to protect me.

When President John Kennedy announced that we were behind in our space program but going to beat the Russians to the moon I bought a slide ruler and learned how to use it. To me running out in the school yard at Everglades Junior High hoping to see the rocket exhaust of Alan Shepard and John Glenn hurling toward space was better than a ticket to the World Series. One of my most precious memories was sitting with my son on Cocoa Beach and watching a Space Shuttle night launch.

But your children might not have these memories unless you travel to Japan, China, India or maybe North Korea.

Today the Japanese are going to launch a solar powered space yacht called Ikoros - Interplanetary Kite-craft Accelerated by Radiation of the Sun - almost spelled like Icarus whose wax and feather wings melted when he flew too close to the Sun. I think it will fly on power from the light in space sort of like that little vacuum globe with the black and white squares we all had in science class that started spinning when we put it next to the window at school.

President Obama we are falling behind in the quest for knowledge again. Please give the boomers back our pride. We want history to remember us as the leaders in technology and space exploration not the greatest military power in history. As Shakespeare wrote:

"The evil men do lives after them;
the good is oft interred with their bones."

What will our legacy be?

Jim Van Meerten is an investor, boomer and lover of NASA who writes on financial matters on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com

Family Dollar is a Bargain

I'm from Charlotte and the South likes our hometown boy Family Dollar Stores ( FDO ). We know a bargain when we see one. Management knows a bargain too. The Levine family interests still control more than 8% of the stock so they had the company buy back 4 million shares in February and have authorized the company to buy back an additional $ 295 million more. The earnings increased 35% year over year so that's better than paying themselves a taxable dividend. Shoppers still have a recession mind set so they are still flocking to discount retailers.

Family Dollar Stores, Inc. is one of the fastest growing discount store chains in the United States. The merchandising concept responsible for this growth provides consumers with good values in low cost, basic merchandise for family and home needs. The merchandise is sold at everyday low prices in a no frills, low overhead, self-service environment. Most merchandise is priced under $10.00. Stores generally range in size from 6,000 to 8,000 square feet and most are operated under leases.

Wall Street has found this stock attractive and have 10 buy, 12 hold and 2 under perform recommendations published. The 2 under performs are old and should be ignored. Analysts predict sales to increase 6.20% this year and 6.10% next year. They project double digit earnings growth of 25.10% this year, 13.90% next year and 13.58% compounded for the next 5 years.

Investor sentiment measured over on Motley Fool is high with CAPS members voting 464 to 45 that the stock will beat the market. The more experienced All Stars agree 146 to 8.

On a technical basis Barchart has 12 of it's 13 technical indicators signaling a buy for a 96% buy score. The stock has appreciated 6.64% in the last month and hit 8 new highs in the last 20 trading session including 3 in the last 5. The stock trades around 40.78 with a 50 day moving average of 38.15.

My points of interest:

• Shoppers are still price sensitive and FDO is a discount retailer
• Barchart signals a 96% buy score with 8 new highs in the last 20 trading sessions
• Analysts have buy recommendations with sales and earnings expected to increase
• Investor sentiment is high

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who blogs on investing on Barchart and Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.

Disclosure: No positions in FDO at the time of publication

Other opinions on:

Blackrock High Yield Fund VI (HYT)

Psychiatric Solutions (PSYS)

Uroplasty (UPI)

Calumet Specialty Products (CLMT)

Whole Foods sells healthy lifestyles

Financial Tides likes Whole Foods promotion of a healthy lifestyle. They were hurting for a while when households traded down price wise during the beginning of the recession. For the first time in 5 quarters same store sales are up as shoppers again strive to eat healthy and organic if they can afford it. They have begun to market more private label items that are competitively priced with the larger chains. There are 51 new location coming on line bringing the total to 350 locations. That should give them major recognition in the marketplace.

Whole Foods Market is the largest purveyor of natural foods in the world. They own and operate the country's largest chain of natural food supermarkets. They are like an old-fashioned neighborhood grocery store, an organic farmer's market, a European bakery, a New York deli, and a modern supermarket all rolled into one! The Company also offers a wide variety of non-perishable natural products on its Web site at http://wholefoods.com.

The stock presently has upward price momentum with 3 new highs in the last 5 session and a 3.73% increase in the last 30 days. Barchart has an 88% technical buy signal with 11 of 13 indicators a positive buy. The stock trades at 40.17 with a 50 day moving average of 37.90.

Investor sentiment is very high on Motley Fool with the CAPS members voting 3,676 to 595 that the stock will beat the market. All Stars are in agreement 1,142 to 119.

Wall Street analysts are giving extremely aggressive growth rates for a grocery stock with sales predicted to increase by 10.40% this year and 9.30% next year. Earnings projections are off the chart with an increase of 56.50% this year, 15.00% next year and a 5 year compounded growth rate of 17.67% forecasted.

Whole foods has a healthy future with:

• Analysts predicting increased sales and double digit earnings growth
• High investor interests
• Recent price momentum with an 88% Barchart technical buy score

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who blogs about investing on Financial Tides and

Barchart Portfolio Blogs. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com

Disclosure: No WFMI at the time of publication

Other Article about WFMI:

Whole Foods Beats, Stay Bullish by Zacks on Yahoo Finance

Akamai keeps on streaming

Financial Tides thinks if Akamai can hold off the acceptance of new products by the new entrants to the video streaming market they may be able to protect the great margins they presently enjoy.

Akamai Technologies Inc. (AKAM ) is the leading global service provider for accelerating content and business processes online. Thousands of organizations have formed trusted relationships with Akamai, improving their revenue and reducing costs by maximizing the performance of their online businesses. Leveraging the Akamai EdgePlatform, these organizations gain business advantage today, and have the foundation for the emerging Web solutions of tomorrow.

Investor sentiment as measured by the Motley Fool CAPS members is extremely high with members voting 2833 to 107 that the stock will beat the market. The more experienced All Stars agree with a vote of 867 to 20. The columnist Fool follows are positive in their articles by 17 to 0.

Wall Street analysts like the double D's on this stock -- that's double digit projections of increases in sales and earnings. They estimate that sales will increase 16.20% this year and 13.70% next year. Earnings are projected to increase by 12.20% next year and continue by 12.88% annually for the next 5 tears.

Barchart has a 96% technical buy score with 12 of the 13 indicators signaling a buy. The stock has appreciated 19.27% last month by hitting 8 new highs in the last 20 trading sessions and 2 new highs in the last 5 days. The stock trades around 39.64 with a 50 day moving average of 34.01.

I like AKAM because:

• Barchart has a 96% technical buy signal with recent price momentum
• Extremely high investor sentiment
• Wall Street predicting double digit increases in sales and earnings.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who blogs on investing on Financial Tides and

Barchart Portfolio Blogs. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.

Disclosure: No positions in AKAM at the time of publication.

Other articles about AKAM:

• A Big Upgrade for Internap Network Services by Dave Mock on Motley Fools
• AKAM Technologies: One of the Hottest Stocks on Wall Street by Wall Street Cheat Sheet on Seeking Alpha