Financial Tides -- A Stock Market Investing Newsletter by Jim Van Meerten: 2012-07-22

Saturday, July 28, 2012

Talbots - TLB - Buy signals

I just place a buy order for Talbots (TLB) in the Barchart Van Meerten Speculative portfolio for great price momentum. Hourly trading chart over the last month

Barchart technical indicators:

64% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Trading above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
13 new highs and up 10.00% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 69.89%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 2.72
Recently traded at 2.75 with a 50 day moving average of 2.44

Friday, July 27, 2012

This morning I used Barchart to screen for the stocks having the most days of increased prices this month and found Transmontaigne Partners (TLP), Eagle Bancorp (EGBN) and Potlach (PCH). Hourly trading charts:

Transmontaigne Partners (TLP)

Barchart technical indicators:

80% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
17 new highs and up 14.38% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 70.67%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 34.86
Recently traded at 36.75 with a 50 day moving average of 32.76

Eagle Bancorp (EGBN)

Barchart technical indicators:

88% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
17 new highs and up 14.04% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 73.79%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 16.94
Recently traded at 17.87 with a 50 day moving average of 16.26

Potlach (PCH)

Barchart technical indicators:

96% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
17 new highs and up 20.81% in the last month
Relative strength Index 81.58%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 35.03
Recently traded at 35.64 with a 50 day moving average of 31.23

Barchart Morning Call 7/27

Barchart Morning Call

BC - 23 mins ago

Overnight Developments

Sep E-mini S&Ps this morning are slightly higher by +0.24% on continued optimism that the ECB appears ready to restart its bond buying program, although the Bundesbank today restated its opposition to the program. European stocks are trading mildly higher by +0.21%. Commodity prices are trading up +0.58% on average with crude oil up +0.34%, gold up +0.39%, copper up +1.06%, and agricultural prices trading mostly higher. The dollar index is trading slightly lower while EUR/USD is up +0.17%. Sep 10-year T-notes are down 7.5 ticks.
Asian stocks today closed higher on support from Thursday's sharp rally in the U.S. stock market: Japan +1.46%, Hong Kong +2.02%, china +0.07%, Taiwan +2.21%, Australia +1.50%, Singapore -0.20%, South Korea +2.93%, India +1.20%, Turkey +0.06%.
France's Le Monde today reported that that ECB is preparing to restart its Securities Market Program and start buying bonds again of troubled countries such as Spain and Italy. That will be followed by bond purchases in the secondary market by the Eurozone's bailout facilities. However, the Bundesbank's spokesman today said that restarting the ECB's bond buying program is not the best way to resolve the crisis. Bundesbank officials in the past have opposed the ECB's bond purchase program because it blurs the line between monetary and fiscal policy, takes the pressure off countries to make the necessary fiscal consolidation to regain the trust of bond investors, and puts impaired securities on the ECB's balance sheet.
German Chancellor Merkel and French President Hollande plan to speak today at 1PM Paris time by telephone to discuss how to help Spain as quickly as possible and to implement last month's summit agreements.
Spain's Q2 unemployment rate rose by 0.2 points to a new record high of 24.6%, underlining the severe state of the Spanish economy.
Chinese industrial company earnings in Jan-June fell 2.2% y/y, underlining the profit pressure that companies are under due to slower Chinese GDP growth.

Japan's July CPI fell -0.2% y/y, down from +0.2% y/y in June and weaker than market expectations of unchanged. The report highlighted that Japan remains subject to deflationary pressure despite years of near-zero interest rates and large quantitative easing programs. Separately, Japan's June retail trade fell -1.2% m/m, which was much weaker than market expectations for a gain of +0.2% m/m and a reversal from the +0.7% m/m gain seen in May.
Market Comments

Sep E-mini S&Ps this morning are up +3.25 points (+0.24%) on continued optimism that the ECB appears ready to start buying Spanish and Italian bonds in the secondary market. Facebook is down 10% in European trading this morning after reporting slower sales growth and narrower profit margins late yesterday afternoon. Starbucks is down 10% in European trading after fiscal Q4 earnings guidance was weaker than expected. The U.S. stock market on Thursday closed sharply higher: S&P 500 +1.65%, Dow Jones +1.67%, Nasdaq 100 +1.40%. Bullish factors centered on ECB President Draghi's strong statement that the ECB will do whatever it needs to do to support the euro and his implicit promise to push peripheral bond yields lower. Spanish and Italian bond yields plunged on Mr. Draghi's comments, making funding costs a little more reasonable for Spain and Italy. U.S. stock market participants are also hopeful that the Fed may announce a QE3 program at either next week's FOMC meeting or the next meeting in September.
Sep 10-year T-notes this morning are down 7.5 ticks on reduced safe-haven demand. Sep 10-year T-note prices on Thursday closed moderately lower: -6.5, FVU2 -2.25. T-note prices fell on reduced safe-haven demand with the sharp rally in stocks and the sharp decline in Spanish and Italian bond yields.
The dollar index this morning is slightly lower by -0.082 points (-0.10%) while EUR/USD is up +0.0021 (+0.17%) on the ECB's apparent intention to restart its bond buying program. USD/JPY is down -0.09 (-0.12%). The dollar index on Thursday closed sharply lower: Dollar index -0.716 (-0.86%), EUR/USD +0.0125 (+1.03%), USD/JPY +0.05 (+0.06%). The dollar index fell and EUR/USD rallied on Mr. Draghi's strong promise of support for the Eurozone and his implication that something big might be in the works. The ECB meets next Thursday and could be ready to announce new support measures for the Eurozone.
Sep WTI crude oil prices this morning are mildly higher by +0.30 (+0.34%) and Sep gasoline is up +0.0164 +0.60%) on some optimism about Europe with the ECB stepping in to try to reduce Spanish and Italian bond yields. Crude oil and gasoline prices on Thursday closed moderately higher: CLU2 +0.42 (+0.47%), RBU2 +0.0208 (+0.77%). Bullish factors centered on the sharp sell-off in the dollar index and the improved economic sentiment that came with ECB President Draghi's strong statement of support for the Eurozone.

Friday 7/27/12
United States
0830 ET	Q2 GDP expected +1.4% annualized, Q1 +1.9% q/q annualized. Q2 personal consumption expected +1.3%, Q1 +2.5%. Q2 GDP price index expected +1.6%, Q1 +2.0%. Q2 PCE expected +1.8% q/q, Q1 +2.3% q/q.
0955 ET	Final-July U.S. consumer confidence index (University of Michigan) unchanged from early-July at 72.0, early-July -1.2 to 72.0.
Germany
0800 ET	Jul German CPI (EU harmonized) expected +0.4% m/m and +1.9% y/y, Jun -0.2% m/m and +2.0% y/y. German state July CPIs.

Barchart.com provides Financial Quotes, Charts and Technical Analysis for Stock and Commodity Traders.

Wal-Mart - WMT - Barchart Chart of the Day

Barchart.coms Chart of the Day - Wal-Mart Stores (WMT)

Barchart Research Team - BC - Thu Jul 26, 4:59PM CDT

Related Stocks

WMT - Wal-Mart Stores

Sym	Last	Chg	Pct
WMT	73.67	+1.59	+2.21%

The "Chart of the Day" is Wal-Mart Stores (WMT), which showed up on Thursday's Barchart "All-Time High" list. Wal-Mart on Thursday posted a new all-time high of $73.95 and closed +2.21%. TrendSpotter has been long since May 18 at $62.43. In recent news on the stock, Bloomberg on July 20 reported that Wal-Mart is the prime mover behind the bill in Congress that would allow states to collect sales tax from out-of-state online merchants, which would put Wal-Mart on a more even playing field with online merchants such as Amazon.com. Wal-Mart Stores, with a market cap of $244 billion, is the world's largest retailer.

wmt_700_01

How we found the Chart of the Day:
We found the "Chart of the Day" by scanning the Barchart "All Time High" list. In order to get to that list, we first clicked on the Stocks menu item on the Barchart home page, then on the "All Time Highs" menu item on the left menu bar. We then sorted the list by percentage gainers by clicking on the "Percent" column title. A stock that has posted a new All-Time high is typically showing strong upside momentum.
The status of Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.

TrendSpotter: Buy
Short-Term Indicators: 80% Buy
Medium-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
Long-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
Overall Average 96% Buy

Barchart links for further information:

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Technical Analysis
Technicals Summary
Trader's Cheat Sheet™

Barchart Opinions
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Company Info
Company Profile
Key Statistics
Ratios
Income Statement-Quarterly
Income Statement-Annual
Balance Sheet-Current
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Chart of the Day Archive
View Past Chart of the Day Reports

Thursday, July 26, 2012

Pacific Sunwear of California - PSUN - buy signals

I just placed a buy order in the Barchart Van Meerten Speculative portfolio for Pacific Sunwear of California (PSUN) for upward price momentum.

Barchart technical indicators:

96% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
13 new highs and up 36.25% in the last month
Relative strength Index 63.61 Barchart computes a technical support level at 2.07
Recently traded at 2.18 with a 50 day moving average of 1.68

3 Growth Stocks with Momentum

Today I took a list of stocks I found that analysts project will have a 10% increase in revenue, earnings and total return to investors and ran them through the Barchart screener to find those with good current momentum and technicals and found RPC (RES), Watson Pharmaceuticals (WPI) and Genesee & Wyoming (GWR).

RPC (RES)

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
9 new highs and up 30.01% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 68.94%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 11.51
Recently traded at 13.15 with a 50 day moving average of 11.10

Watson Pharmaceutical (WPI)

Barchart technical indicators:

88% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
11 new highs and up 8.91% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 64.04%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 73.76
Recently traded at 77.50 with a 50 day moving average of 72.55

Genesee & Wyoming (GWR)

Barchart technical indicators:

88% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving average
13 new highs and up 19.78% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 68.83%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 57.19
Recently traded at 60.05 with a 50 day moving average of 52.64

3 NASDAQ 100 Stocks with great technicals

This morning I used Barchart to screen the NASDAQ 100 Stock Index to find the 3 with the best charts and technicals and found Alexion Pharmaceutical (ALXN), EBAY Inc (EBAY) and Virgin Media (VMED). Add these to your watch lists:

Alexion Pharmaceutical (ALEX)

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
4 new highs and up 9.62% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 65.96%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 95.50
Recently traded at 105.13 with a 50 day moving average of 94.90

EBAY Inc (EBAY)

Barchart technical indicators:

96% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
4 new highs and up 3.30% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 57.75%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 42.26
Recently traded at 43.19 with a 50 day moving average of 40.86

Virgin Media (VMED)

Barchart technical indicators:

88% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
7 new highs and up 9.93% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 67.79%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 25.46
Recently traded at 25.90 with a 50 day moving average of 23.44

Barchart Morning Call 7/26

Barchart Morning Call

BC - 21 mins ago

Overnight Developments

Sep E-mini S&Ps are up +0.71% this morning on a 1.34% rally in European stocks after ECB President Draghi made a strong promise of support for the euro project. EUR/USD is up +0.83% this morning and the dollar index is down -0.45%. Commodity prices are mildly higher by +0.18% on average with crude oil up +0.26%, gold up +0.52%, copper up +0.73%, and with agricultural prices trading mixed. Sep 10-year T-notes are down 6.5 ticks.
Asian stocks today closed mixed: Japan +0.92%, Hong Kong +0.08%, China -0.53%, Taiwan -0.12%, Australia +0.58%, Singapore +0.46%, South Korea +0.79%, India -1.22%, Turkey +1.02%.
ECB President Draghi today said in a speech in London, "Within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. And believe me, it will be enough." He added, that "To the extent that the size of these sovereign premia hamper the functioning of the monetary policy transmission channel, they come within our mandate." With that comment, Mr. Draghi was clearly saying that the ECB could reactivate its Securities Market Program at any time and start buying Spanish and Italian bonds again to bring down Spanish and Italian yields. The Spanish bond yield fell after Mr. Draghi's comments today and is currently at 7.24%, down 9 bp from Wednesday's level of 7.33%. Spanish stocks are up 1.43% this morning and Italian stocks are up 2.53%.
Germany's Aug GfK consumer confidence index rose slightly to 5.9 from 5.8 in June and was slightly stronger than market expectations for an unchanged report of 5.8.
The German June import price report of -1.5% m/m and +1.3% y/y was weaker than market expectations of -0.9% m/m and +1.9% y/y and was weaker than May's report of -0.7% m/m and +2.2% y/y.
Eurozone June M3 strengthened to +3.2% y/y from a revised +3.1% in May (preliminary +2.9%) and was stronger than market expectations of +2.9% y/y.
The IMF's senior resident official in China, Il Houng Lee, said today that China's actions have already "been adequate to ensure that the economy is bottoming out." The IMF is forecasting that Chinese GDP growth will strengthen in the second half of 2012. The IMF official said that Chinese authorities will likely maintain the "status quo" after already shifting their monetary policy to a "more neutral or accommodating one" and may forgo fiscal stimulus in this year's budget.

China's State Council on Wednesday approved a plan to promote development in six central provinces. The plan will allow local governments to launch stimulus building projects to support local economies.
Market Comments

Sep E-mini S&Ps this morning are up +0.71% as the market was encouraged by ECB President Draghi's strong statements in support of the euro project. The U.S. stock market today faces another very heavy day of earnings reports. The U.S. stock market on Wednesday closed mixed: S&P 500 -0.03%, Dow Jones +0.47%, Nasdaq 100 -0.71%. The stock market on Wednesday was undercut by the sharp sell-off in Apple on its earnings disappointment and on the sharp 8.4% drop in June new home sales. However, the stock market received support from increased hopes for central bank measures with ECB council member Nowotny promoting the idea of giving the ESM bailout facility a banking license and with the New York Times and WSJ both running stories reviewing the chances for near-term Fed easing measures.
Sep 10-year T-notes this morning are down 6.5 ticks on reduced safe-haven support with the rally in U.S. and European stock indexes. Sep 10-year T-note prices on Wednesday closed slightly higher: TYU2 -1, FVU2 +0.25. T-note prices were undercut by yesterday's stabilization in the stock market but were supported by hopes for QE3.
The dollar index this morning is down -0.373 (-0.45%) and EUR/USD is up +0.0101 (+0.83%) on ECB President Draghi's strong statement of support for the euro project and the implication that the ECB is prepared to do much more if necessary. USD/JPY is slightly higher by +0.06 (+0.08%). The dollar index on Wednesday closed lower: Dollar index -0.481 (-0.57%), EUR/USD +0.0097 (+0.80%), USD/JPY -0.02 (-0.03%). The dollar index was undercut by reduced safe-haven demand and EUR/USD was supported by ECB council member Nowotny's comment that he sees arguments in favor of giving the 500 billion euro ESM a banking license. With a banking license, the ESM bailout facility would be able to leverage its capital and substantially increase its bailout capacity to a level more commensurate with potential Eurozone bailout needs. EUR/USD also received a boost as the Spanish 10-year bond yield fell by 24 bp to 7.33%.
Sep WTI crude oil prices this morning are up +0.23 (+0.26%) and Sep gasoline is up +0.0092 (+0.34%) on general commodity market strength tied to higher stock markets and the lower dollar index. Crude oil and gasoline prices on Wednesday closed mixed: CLU2 +0.47 (+0.53%), RBU2 -0.0096 (-0.35%). Crude oil and gasoline prices on Wednesday were boosted by the lower dollar and hopes for new central bank measures. However, the DOE report was bearish with unexpected inventory increases in crude oil (+2.7 mln bbl), gasoline (+4.134 mln bbl), and distillates +1.71 million bbls).

For the complete subscription version of this daily report (plus a 13-page big-picture weekly report), along with the earliest possible delivery in the morning, please visit http://www.barchart.com/register/crbfms_usmc.php
Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (ranked by market cap): Exxon Mobil (Consensus $1.95), Amazon.com (0.43), Facebook (0.11), Occidental (1.60), United Technology (1.41), 3M (1.65), Amgen (1.55), Colgate-Palmolive (1.33), Gilead Sciences (0.95), Starbucks (0.45), Dow Chemical (0.64), Kimberly-Clark (1.28), Celgene (1.18), Nextera (1.16), National Oilwell Varco (1.40), Covidien (1.06), Prececision Castpt (2.36), McKesson (1.48), Ventas (0.32), Chubb (1.14), Raytheon (1.22), CME Group (0.83), Hershey (0.61), Noble Energy (0.92), Waste Management (0.52), Mead Johnson (0.77), Prologis (-0.04), International Paper (0.46), Cerner (0.55), McGraw-Hill (0.76), CA (0.61), Ensco (1.25).
Global Financial Calendar

Thursday 7/26/12
United States
0830 ET	Weekly initial unemployment claims expected -6,000 to 380,000, previous +34,000 to 386,000. Weekly continuing claims expected -14,000 to 3.300 mln, previous +1,000 to 3.314 mln.
0830 ET	June durable goods orders expected +0.3%, May +1.3% m/m. June durable goods orders ex-transportation expected +0.1%, May +0.7% y/y.
0830 ET	USDA weekly exports.
1000 ET	June pending home sales expected +0.3% m/m and +12.1% y/y, May +5.9% m/m and +15.3% y/y.
1030 ET	DOE natural gas storage.
1100 ET	Kansas City Fed July manufacturing index expected +1 to 4, June 3.
1300 ET	Treasury sells $29 bln in 7-year T-notes.
1630 ET	Weekly money supply report and Fed balance sheet.
Germany
0200 ET	Aug German GfK consumer confidence survey expected unch at 5.8, Jul 5.8.
Euro-Zone
0400 ET	Jun Euro-Zone M3 money supply expected +2.9% y/y, May +2.9.
Japan
1930 ET	Jun Japan national CPI expected unch y/y, May +0.2% y/y. Jun national CPI ex-fresh food expected unch y/y, May -0.1% y/y. Jun national CPI ex food & energy expected -0.5% y/y, May -0.6% y/y.
1930 ET	Jul Tokyo CPI expected -0.6% y/y, Jun -0.6% y/y. Jul Tokyo CPI ex-fresh food expected -0.6% y/y, Jun -0.6% y/y. Jul Tokyo CPI ex food & energy expected -1.0% y/y, Jun -1.0% y/y.
1950 ET	Japan Jun retail trade expected +0.2% m/m and +1.1% y/y, May +0.7% m/m and +3.6% y/y. Jun large retailer sales expected -1.6% y/y, May -0.8% y/y.
CHI
2130 ET	China June industrial profits year-to-date, May -2.4% y/y.
2135 ET	China July MNI business condition survey.

Barchart.com provides Financial Quotes, Charts and Technical Analysis for Stock and Commodity Traders.

Edward Lifesciences - EW - Barchart Chart of the Day

Barchart.coms Chart of the Day - Edwards Lifesciences (EW)

Barchart Research Team - BC - Wed Jul 25, 9:47PM CDT

Related Stocks

EW - Edwards Lifesciences Corp.

Sym	Last	Chg	Pct
EW	105.06	+6.41	+6.50%

The "Chart of the Day" is Edwards Lifesciences (EW), which showed up on Wednesday's Barchart "All-Time High" list. Edwards on Wednesday posted a new all-time high of $106.94 and closed +6.50%. TrendSpotter took a profit on a long trade on Monday but then turned long again on Wednesday's close of $105.06. In recent news on the stock, Edwards reported Q2 EPS ex-items of 67 cents, higher than the consensus of 65 cents. Edwards Lifesciences, with a market cap of $11 billion, is a leader in advanced cardiovascular disease treatments, is the number-one heart valve company in the world and the global leader in acute hemodynamic monitoring.

ew_700

TrendSpotter: Buy
Short-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
Medium-Term Indicators: 75% Buy
Long-Term Indicators: 67% Buy
Overall Average 88% Buy

Chart of the Day Archive
View Past Chart of the Day Reports

Wednesday, July 25, 2012

MPG Office Trust - MPG - buy signals

I just placed an order for MPG Office Trust (MPG) in the Barchart Van Meerten Speculative portfolio for positive price momentum:

Barchart technical indicators:

88% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
14 new highs and up 29.80% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 71.61%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 2.28
Recently traded at 2.57 with a 50 day moving average of 2.01

My 3 Small Cap Picks of the Day

Today I used Barchart to screen the S & P Small Cap 600 Index stocks to find the 3 with the best technicals and found The Medicines Co (MDCO), Lumber Liquidators (LL) and Healthways (HWAY)

The Medicines Co (MDCO)

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
10 new highs and up 16.81% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 67.86%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 75.86%
Recently traded at 25.62 with a 50 day moving average of 22.66

Lumber Liquidators (LL)

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
7 new highs and up 28.04% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 75.86%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 31.58
Recently traded at 39.94 with a 50 day moving average of 31.33

HealthWays (HWAY)

Barchart technical indicators:

Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
12 new highs and up 33.88% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 69.90%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 8.08
Recently traded at 10.15 with a 50 day moving average of 7.81

Barchart Morning Call 7/25

Barchart Morning Call

BC - Wed Jul 25, 7:00AM CDT

Overnight Developments

Sep E-mini S&Ps are trading mildly higher by +0.41% on the +0.91% rally in European stocks as ECB council member Nowotny floated a possible trial balloon about the ECB giving a banking license to the ESM bailout facility. E-mini S&Ps have been able to shake off the 5% sell-off in Apple this morning on its disappointing quarterly earnings report released late-Tuesday and a weaker-than-expected German IFO business confidence report. Commodity prices are up by an average +0.52% today with crude oil up +0.20%, gold up +0.99%, copper up +0.58%, and agricultural prices trading mostly higher. The dollar index this morning is down -0.44% while EUR/USD is sharply higher by +0.84%. Sep 10-year T-notes are down 6.5 ticks.
Asian stocks today closed lower almost across the board: Japan -1.44%, Hong Kong -0.14%, China -0.67%, Taiwan -0.42%, Australia -0.22%, Singapore -0.25%, South Korea -0.25%, South Korea -1.34%, India -0.43%, Turkey +0.38%. Chinese stocks today fell to a 3-year low after the IMF warned of downside risks to the economy and on market doubts that the government will loosen property curbs.
The IMF said the Chinese economy faces significant downside risks but that China is "well placed to respond forcefully, if needed, to a deterioration in the external environment, in particularly through fiscal policy." The IMF said the Chinese economy relies too much on investment and needs to boost consumption and channel investor savings away from housing.
Apple late Tuesday disappointed the market by reporting iPhone sales of 26 million in fiscal-Q3 that were below the market consensus of 28.4 million. Lagging iPhone sales caused Apple to miss the consensus quarterly revenue and EPS estimates for only the second time since 2003. Fiscal Q3 EPS of $9.32 was well behind the consensus of $10.37. Lagging iPhone sales are due to customers waiting to buy an iPhone until the next model comes in and to increased competition.
Germany today sold 3 billion euros on 30-year bonds, which was in line with its intended target. The average yield on the bonds was a record low 2.17%, down from 2.41% at the last 30-year bond auction on April 25.
ECB council member Ewald Nowotny said that he sees arguments in favor of granting the ESM bailout fund a banking license, although he added that he is not aware that the ECB is actively considering the matter. A banking license would allow the ESM to borrow large amounts of cash from the ECB and greatly expand its bailout capacity beyond the current 500 billion euros (100 billion euros of which is going toward the Spanish bailout). The operation of the ESM has been delayed until at least September as the German Constitutional Court considers an initial Sep 12 preliminary ruling on a constitutional challenge to the ESM and the fiscal pact.
Japan's seasonally adjusted trade balance report was better than expected and that was mildly bullish for the yen and bearish for USD/JPY. Japan's June seasonally adjusted trade deficit was -300.8 billion yen, narrower than the expected deficit of -402 billion yen. June exports fell -2.3% y/y, which was better than market expectations for a -3.0% y/y decline.
Germany's July IFO business climate index fell to 103.3 from a revised 105.2 in June, which was weaker than market expectations of 104.5. That was the third consecutive monthly decline and the lowest level in more than two years. The July IFO current assessment index fell to 111.6 from 113.9 in June, which was weaker than market expectations of 113.0. The July IFO expectations index fell to 95.6 from a revised 97.2 in June, which was weaker than market expectations of 96.8.

UK Q2 GDP fell -0.7% q/q and -0.8% y/y, which was substantially weaker than market expectations of -0.2% q/q and -0.3% y/y. Q2 was the worst quarter in three years and added to the -0.3% q/q decline seen in Q1, leaving the UK in a recession. However, part of the reason for the decline was technical and was related to extra holidays due to the Queen's Jubilee and the wettest Q2 on record that helped cause a 5.2% plunge in construction.
Market Comments

Sep E-mini S&Ps this morning are up 5.50 points (+0.41%) thanks to higher European stocks and some short-covering after the 3-session decline. E-mini S&Ps have been able to shake off today's 5% sell-off in Apple and negative German IFO business confidence news. The U.S. stock market on Tuesday closed sharply lower for the third straight session: S&P 500 -0.90%, Dow Jones -0.82%, Nasdaq 100 -0.87%. Bearish factors included (1) the sharp drop in the July Richmond Fed manufacturing index to -17 from a revised -1 in June, (2) weaker-than-expected German PMI reports for manufacturing (-1.7 to 43.3) and services (-0.2 to 49.7), (3) the further rise in the Spanish 10-year bond yield by 12 bp to 7.57% and the 26 bp rise in the Italian bond yield to 6.57%, (4) Moody's late-Monday change to a negative outlook for the Aaa ratings for Germany, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg, (5) the cut in earnings guidance by UPS, which had negative implications for U.S. economic growth, and (6) a Reuters report quoting European officials as saying that Greece is likely to miss its debt reduction targets. Stock prices on Tuesday received some support from (1) the Monday night's news that China's July manufacturing PMI from HSBC/Markit rose by 1.3 points to 49.5 from 48.2 in June, and (2) a Wall Street Journal report on Tuesday saying that the Fed is getting closer to taking additional stimulus steps.
Sep 10-year T-notes this morning are down 6.5 ticks on today's rally in E-mini S&Ps and European stocks. Sep 10-year T-note prices on Tuesday closed higher: TYU2 +6.5, FVU2 +1.25. T-notes received another boost on Tuesday on the sharp sell-off in the U.S. stock market and the increased concern about Europe.
The dollar index this morning is down -0.37 points (-0.44%) and EUR/USD is up +0.0101 (+0.84%) on technical reactions tied to ECB council member Nowotny's favorable view of giving the ESM a banking license. USD/JPY is slightly higher by +0.05 (+0.06%). The dollar index on Tuesday closed higher: Dollar index +0.299 (+0.36%), EUR/USD -0.0056 (-0.46%), USD/JPY -0.22 (-0.28%). The dollar index on Tuesday posted another new 2-year high and EUR/USD posted a new 2-year low. The dollar index rallied on Tuesday and as crunch time is coming for Greece and as the Spanish bond yield is now above 7.50%.
Sep WTI crude oil prices this morning are mildly higher by +0.18 (+0.20%) but Sep gasoline is down -0.0259 (-0.95%). Crude oil and gasoline prices on Tuesday closed mixed: CLU2 +0.36 (+0.41%), RBU2 -0.0308 (-1.37%). Crude oil prices on Tuesday closed mildly higher on some short-covering after the sharp sell-off seen in the previous two sessions. There were no reports of any progress in Tuesday's round of negotiations at the technical level between Iran and the world powers over Iran's nuclear program. The market consensus for Wednesday's weekly DOE report is for a 1.5 million barrel drop in crude oil inventories for the fifth consecutive weekly decline, a 500,000 barrel drop in gasoline inventories, a 1 million barrel increase in distillate inventories, and a 0.5 point drop in the refinery utilization rate to 91.5% of capacity from 92.0% last week.

For the complete subscription version of this daily report (plus a 13-page big-picture weekly report), along with the earliest possible delivery in the morning, please visit http://www.barchart.com/register/crbfms_usmc.php
Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (ranked by market cap): Pepsico (Consensus $1.10), V-Visa (1.45), COP-ConocoPhillips (1.19), BMY-Bristol-Myer-Squibb (0.48), BA-Boeing (1.12), CAT-Caterpillar (2.28), LLY-Eli Lilly (-0.77), SO-Southern (0.68), F-Ford Motor (0.29), LVS-Las Vegas Sands (0.60), PX-Praxair (1.42), ACE-ACE Ltd (1.91), GD-General Dynamics (1.74), WLP-Wellpoint (2.08), EQR-Euity Residential (0.12), ALXN-Alexion Pharm (0.36), TMO-Thermo Fisher (1.16), GLW-Corning (0.31), LO-Lorillard (2.32), CCI-Crown Castle (0.17), NOC-Northrop Grumman (1.61), T Rowe Price (0.81), WFM-Whole Foods Market (0.61), HES-Hess Corp (1.38), Citrix Systems (0.60), AVB-Avalonbay (0.65), TEL-TE Connectivity (0.78), MSI-Motorola Solutions (0.69), HCA-HCA Holdings (0.78), REGN-Regeneron Pharm (0.50), ORLY-O'Reilly Automotive (1.14), CBE-Cooper Industries (1.12), AMP-Ameriprise (1.34).
Global Financial Calendar

Wednesday 7/25/12
United States
0700 ET	Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous +16.9%, purchase sub-index -0.1%, refi sub-index +21.6%.
1000 ET	June new home sales expected +0.4% to 371,000, May +7.6% to 369,000.
1030 ET	DOE Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
1300 ET	Treasury sells $35 bln in 5-year T-notes.
Germany
0400 ET	Jul German IFO business climate expected -0.8 to 104.5, Jun 105.3. Jul IFO current assessment expected -0.9 to 113.0, Jun 113.9. Jul IFO expectations expected -0.5 to 96.8, Jun 97.3.
United Kingdom
0430 ET	UK Q2 GDP expected -0.2% q/q and -0.3% y/y, Q1 -0.3% q/q and -0.2% y/y.
0600 ET	Jul UK CBI trends total orders expected -10, Jun -11. Jul CBI trends selling prices expected 0, Jun 2. Jul CBI business optimism expected 0, June 22.
Japan
1950 ET	Jun Japan corporate service price index expected unch y/y, May +0.1% y/y.

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Medivation - MDVN - Barchart Chart of the Day

Barchart.coms Chart of the Day - Medivation (MDVN)

Barchart Research Team - BC - Tue Jul 24, 6:05PM CDT

Related Stocks

MDVN - Medivation

Sym	Last	Chg	Pct
MDVN	96.97	+0.94	+0.98%

The "Chart of the Day" is Medivation (MDVN), which showed up on Tuesday's Barchart "All-Time High" list. Medivation on Tuesday posted a new all-time high of $97.09 and closed up 2.96%. TrendSpotter has been long since June 27 at $88.74. In recent news on the stock, ThinkEquity on June 29 initiated coverage on Medivation with a Buy and a target of $110. William Blair on June 26 reiterated its Outperform rating on Medivation and raised its target to $119 from $96 on an increased estimate of the selling price of Medivation's enzalutamide prostate cancer treatment. Medivation, with a market cap of $3.5 billion, is a biopharmaceutical company that acquires promising technologies in the late preclinical development phase and develops them quickly and cost-effectively.

mdvn_700

TrendSpotter: Buy
Short-Term Indicators: 80% Buy
Medium-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
Long-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
Overall Average 96% Buy

Chart of the Day Archive
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Tuesday, July 24, 2012

Barchart Morning Call 7/24

Barchart Morning Call

BC - 1 hr 8 mins ago

Overnight Developments

Sep E-mini S&Ps are trading mildly lower by -0.26% on the -0.55% sell-off in European stocks and Moody's announcement late Monday of a shift to a negative outlook for the Aaa ratings for Germany, Netherlands, and Luxembourg. In addition, Germany's manufacturing and services PMI reports today were weaker than expected. However, the markets received some good news overnight with the 1.2 point rise in China's HSBC/Markit flash July manufacturing PMI to 49.5. Commodity prices are down -0.58% on average with Sep crude oil down -0.23%, Aug gold down -0.36%, Sep copper down -0.58%, grains down by about 2% on average, and meats and softs trading mixed. The dollar index is up +0.18%. Sep 10-year T-notes are up 1.5 ticks.
Asian stocks today closed mixed: Japan -0.24%, Hong Kong -0.79%, China +0.45%, Taiwan -0.29%, Australia +0.10%, Singapore +0.53%, South Korea +0.38%, India +0.24%, Turkey +0.43%.
The 10-year German bond yield today rose by 6 bp to 1.23% and the Dutch bond yield rose by 10 bp to 1.72% after Moody's late Monday cut the Aaa rating outlook to negative for Germany, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg. Moody's made the change because of the risks that Greece may leave the euro and an "increasing likelihood" that Spain and Italy may need bailouts.
The Spanish 10-year bond yield today rose by another 13 bp to a new euro-era record high of 7.57%. Spanish Economy Minister Luis de Guindos is in Berlin today to meet with German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, who is leaving shortly for a 3-week vacation. The Spanish government today was able to sell 3.05 billion euros of bills, but had to pay 2.434% for the 3-month bills. Spanish bond yields have risen sharply since last week in part because Spain's regions are now lining up for bailouts from the central government, which has set up a facility totaling 18 billion euros.
China's July manufacturing PMI from HSBC/Markit rose by 1.3 points to 49.5 from 48.2 in June, which suggested that conditions in China's manufacturing sector improved a bit. In a separate report, China's June leading index rose +0.1% after the +1.1% increase in May.

Germany's PMI indexes were weaker than expected while the Eurozone PMI indexes were mixed. Germany's July manufacturing PMI of 43.3 was substantially weaker than market expectations of 49.7 and was down from 45.0 in June. Moreover, the German July services PMI of 49.7 was weaker than market expectations of 50.0 and was down from 49.9 in June. The Eurozone's manufacturing PMI of 44.1 was below market expectations of 45.2 and was down from 45.1 in June. However, the Eurozone July services PMI of 47.6 was stronger than market expectations of 47.1 and was up from 47.1 in June. The Eurozone July composite PMI of 46.4 was in line with market expectations and was unchanged from 46.4 in June.
Market Comments

Sep E-mini S&Ps this morning are down -3.50 points (-0.26%) on lower European stocks, although E-minis found some support from the stronger-than-expected Chinese manufacturing PMI report. There is a raft of Q2 earnings reports today. The U.S. stock market on Monday closed sharply lower: S&P 500 -0.89%, Dow Jones -0.79%, Nasdaq 100 -1.07%. The European debt crisis has substantially worsened in the past week and 10-year bond yields on Monday rose by 22 bp to 7.44% for Spain and by 16 bp to 6.31% for Italy. The markets were alarmed by fresh events including (1) German Economy Minister Roesler's comment that he is "very skeptical" about whether Greece can meet its austerity requirements and that a Greek exit from the euro has "lost its terror," (2) news that Spain's regional governments appear to be lining up for bailouts from the Spanish central government, and (3) news after close that Moody's lowered its Aaa rating outlooks to negative for Germany, the Netherlands and Luxembourg because the "rising uncertainty" about the debt crisis and the increasing likelihood that those countries will be called upon to provide even larger bailouts. US stocks were also undercut by Chinese central bank advisor Song Guoqing's comment on Saturday that Chinese Q3 GDP may cool to +7.4% from +7.6% in Q2 and +8.1% in Q1, meaning that the Chinese economy has yet to bottom.
Sep 10-year T-notes this morning are trading +1.5 ticks on the mildly lower trade in U.S. and European stock indexes. The T-note market is looking ahead to today's sale of $35 billion in 2-year T-notes, which is currently trading at a yield of 0.22%. Sep 10-year T-note prices on Monday closed higher: TYU2 +5, FVU2 +3. T-note prices were boosted by increased safe-haven demand with the sharp global sell-off in stocks and the increased worries about the European debt crisis with the Spanish 10-year bond yield surging to a new euro-era record high of 7.44%.
The dollar index this morning is mildly higher by +0.15 points (+0.18%) on the continued European troubles, while EUR/USD is down -0.0021 (-0.17%). USD/JPY is down -0.23 points (-0.29%). The dollar index on Monday closed higher: Dollar index +0.228 (+0.27%), EUR/USD -0.0040 (-0.33%), USD/JPY -0.09 (-0.11%). The dollar index posted a new 2-year high on Monday and EUR/USD posted a new 2-year low. The dollar index was once again boosted by safe-haven demand tied to the Eurozone debt crisis, while EUR/USD continued to see losses on capital flight from Europe. On the current course, Spain will need a full bailout on the order of 350-450 billion euros, which would nearly drain the Eurozone's bailout resources. In addition, a Greek exit from the Eurozone is now back on the table with troika officials arriving in Athens on Tuesday for an examination of Greece's progress, or lack therefore, on meeting the terms of its austerity program.
Sep WTI crude oil prices this morning are mildly lower by -0.20 (-0.23%) and Sep gasoline is down -0.0241 (-0.87%) on continued technical long liquidation pressure and worries about Europe. Crude oil and gasoline prices on Monday closed sharply lower: CLU2 -3.69 (-4.02%), RBU2 -0.0807 (-2.84%). Bearish factors included the sharp sell-off in global stocks, worries about global economic growth and fuel demand, and long liquidation pressure after the sharp rally seen in the first half of July. The market consensus for Wednesday's weekly DOE report is for a 1.5 million barrel drop in crude oil inventories for the fifth consecutive weekly decline, a 500,000 barrel drop in gasoline inventories, a 1 million barrel increase in distillate inventories, and a 0.5 point drop in the refinery utilization rate to 91.5% of capacity from 92.0% last week.

For the complete subscription version of this daily report (plus a 13-page big-picture weekly report), along with the earliest possible delivery in the morning, please visit http://www.barchart.com/register/crbfms_usmc.php
Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (ranked by market cap): Apple (Consensus $10.38), AT&T (0.63), UPS-United Parcel (1.17), MO-Altria (0.57), EMC-EMC corp (0.39), SPG-Simon Property (0.71), DD-DuPont (1.46), BIIB-Biogen Idec (1.56), LMT-Lockheed Martin (1.91), RAI-Reynolds America (0.76), ITW-Illinois Tool (1.10), NSC-Norfolk Southern (1.53), AFL-Aflac (1.61), BRCM-Broadcom (0.67), APD-Airproducts (1.41), PCAR-Paccar (0.81), EW-Edwards Life (0.65), WU-Western Union (0.43), ALTR-Altera Corp (0.39), FTI-FMC Technologies (0.48), RRC-Range Resources (0.09), CHRW-CH Robinson (0.71), RF-Regions Financial (0.14), SIAL-Sigma-Aldrich (0.97), COG-Cabot Oil & Gas (0.06), JNPR-Juniper Networks (0.16).
Global Financial Calendar

Tuesday 7/24/12
United States
0745 ET	ICSC (Int'l Council of Shopping Centers) weekly retailer sales.
0845 ET	Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks on early childhood education in Cincinnati.
0855 ET	Redbook weekly retailer sales.
0858 ET	Markit July US PMI preliminary expected 52.0, last 52.5.
1000 ET	July Richmond Fed manufacturing index expected +2 to -1, June -7 to -3.
1000 ET	May FHFA house price index expected +0.4% m/m, Apr +0.8% m/m.
1130 ET	Weekly 4-week T-bill auction.
1300 ET	Treasury sells $35 bln in 2-year T-notes.
1630 ET	API weekly U.S. oil statistics.
Germany
0330 ET	Jul German manufacturing PMI expected +0.1 to 45.1, Jun 45.0. Jul German PMI services expected +0.1 to 50.0, Jun 49.9.
Euro-Zone
0400 ET	Jul Eurozone PMI composite expected unch at 46.4, Jun 46.4. July PMI manufacturing expected +0.1 to 45.2, June 45.1. July PMI services expected unch at 47.1, June 47.1.
United Kingdom
0430 ET	UK BBA loans for house purchases.
Japan
1950 ET	Jun Japan merchandise trade balance (sa) expected -398 bln yen, May -657.2 bln yen. June trade exports expected -3.0% y/y, May +10.0% y/y. June trade imports expected +1.1% y/y, May +9.3% y/y.

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Toll Brothers - TOL - Barchart Chart of the Day

Barchart.coms Chart of the Day - Toll Brothers (TOL)

Barchart Research Team - BC - Mon Jul 23, 5:17PM CDT

Related Stocks

TOL - Toll Brothers Inc.

Sym	Last	Chg	Pct
TOL	31.03	+0.32	+1.04%

The "Chart of the Day" is Toll Brothers (TOL), which showed up on Monday's Barchart "52-Week High" list. Toll Brothers on Monday posted a new 5-1/2 year high of $31.19 and closed up 1.04%. TrendSpotter has been long since June 28 at $28.39. In recent news on the stock, Goldman on Monday upgraded homebuilders to Attractive from Neutral, saying that the homebuilder group is at the beginning of a long-term positive trend and that housing starts will be boosted by rising housing prices. Toll Brothers, with a market cap of $5 billion, designs, builds, markets and arranges financing for single-family detached and attached homes in middle and high income residential communities in thirteen states and five regions around the country.

How we found the Chart of the Day:
We found the "Chart of the Day" by scanning the Barchart "52-week Highs" page. That page shows all the stocks that have posted new 52-week highs, which is a popular sign of strong upside momentum.
The status of Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.

TrendSpotter: Buy
Short-Term Indicators: 80% Buy
Medium-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
Long-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
Overall Average 96% Buy

Chart of the Day Archive
View Past Chart of the Day Reports

American Learning - ALRN - buy signals

This morning I added American Learning (ALRN) to the Barchart Van Meerten Speculative portfolio for positive price momentum:

Barchart technical indicators:

80% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
14 new highs and up 116.05% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 74.76%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 1.34
Recently traded at 1.75 with a 50 day moving average of 1.08

Breitburn Energy - BBEP - buy signals

This morning I added Breitburn Energy (BBEP) to the Barchart Van Meerten New High portfolio for very positive price momentum

Barchart technical indicators:

72% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
17 new highs and up 12.19% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 77.83%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 17.84
Recently traded at 18.41 with a 50 day moving average of 17.01

Monday, July 23, 2012

Barchart Morning Call 7/23

Barchart Morning Call

BC - Mon Jul 23, 7:00AM CDT

Overnight Developments

Sep E-mini S&Ps are trading sharply lower by 1.03% this morning on the 2.1% sell-off in the Euro Stoxx 50 index and on increased concern about the Eurozone debt crisis with Spanish and Italian bond yields today surging. Spanish stocks are down 3.45% this morning while Italian stocks are down 4.15%. In addition, a Chinese central bank advisor forecasted that Chinese GDP will dip further to +7.4% in Q3 and Germany's economy minister said that a Greek exit from the euro has "lost its terror." Commodity prices are sharply lower by an average 1.6% this morning on concern about weaker Chinese and European growth and on today's further rally in the dollar index. Crude oil is down 2.81%, gold is down 0.78%, copper is down 2.76%, and agricultural prices are all trading lower. The dollar index this morning is up +0.23% while EUR/USD is down -0.24%. Sep 10-year T-notes this morning are sharply higher by +13.5 ticks.
Asian stocks today closed lower across the board: Japan -1.86%, Hong Kong -2.99%, China -1.38%, Taiwan -1.90%, Australia -1.67%, Singapore -1.10%, South Korea -1.91%, India -1.64%, Turkey -1.54%.
The Spanish 10-year bond yield today is up sharply by 27 bp to 7.49%, adding to last week's surge of 61 bp to 7.22%. The Italian 10-year bond yield this morning is up 20 bp at 6.35% on contagion pressures from Spain. A Spanish newspaper reported today that six Spanish region/states may ask from bailout aid from the Spanish central government. Spain last week created an 18 billion euro bailout facility to help its regions. The Spanish region of Valencia officially requested bailout aid last week. Spanish and Italian banks are taking a heavy hit today with Spain's largest bank, Banco Santander, down 4.6% and Italy's UniCredit down 7.1%. The Bank of Spain today said that Spain's Q2 GDP fell -0.4% q/q for the third consecutive quarterly decline and was down -1.0% y/y.
German Vice Chancellor and Economy Minister Philipp Roesler said on Sunday that he is "very skeptical" that the Eurozone will able to rescue Greece and that Greece's exit from the euro had "lost its terror." He said, "What's emerging is that Greece will probably not be able to fulfill its conditions. What is clear: if Greece doesn't fulfill those conditions, then there can be no more payments." Troika officials arrive in Greece on Tuesday to start examining how far Greece is behind on its adjustment plan and what needs to be done going forward.
The Euro-zone July Consumer Confidence index fell to -20.0 from -19.8 in June.
Chinese central bank advisor Song Guoqing said on Saturday that Chinese Q3 GDP may cool to +7.4% from +7.6% in Q2 and +8.1% in Q1, meaning that the Chinese economy has yet to bottom. He said, "The consensus is that China's economic growth rate will be close to 8% in coming months, but I personally am more pessimistic because there are problems on the export side." He added that in light of the continuing Eurozone debt crisis, "there is a risk of insufficient government measures if Chinese exports fall more sharply than expected in coming months."

Japan's Cabinet Office in its monthly report said that "The slowdown in the global economy is becoming more widespread." Meanwhile, Japanese Finance Minister Jun Azumi reiterated today that Japanese authorities are ready to take "decisive" action to combat speculative and volatile exchange rate movements.
Market Comments

Sep E-mini S&Ps this morning are trading sharply lower by 14.00 points (-1.03%) on the -2.1% sell-off in European stocks and on concern about slowing Chinese economic growth. The U.S. stock market is looking ahead to this week's peak in Q2 earnings reports. Stocks on Friday closed sharply lower: S&P 500 -1.01, Dow Jones -0.93%%, Nasdaq 100 -1.42%. Bearish factors included (1) a report that the Chinese government will keep a "firm grip" on the property market to prevent speculation from driving prices higher, and (2) a sharp rise in Spanish bond yield above 7.00% to a euro-era high of 7.23%, which increases the chances that Spain will eventually need a full bailout rather than a bailout for just its banks.
Sep 10-year T-notes this morning are trading sharply higher by +13.5 ticks on increased safe-haven demand tied to the sharp sell-off in global stocks and the increased concern about the European debt crisis..... Sep 10-year T-note prices Friday closed higher: TYU2 +14, FVU2 +5.5. T-note prices on Friday closed higher on increased safe-haven demand with the sharp sell-off in stocks and the increased concern about the European debt crisis.
The dollar index this morning is up +0.195 points (+0.23%) and EUR/USD is down -0.0029 points (-0.24%) on the surge in Spanish and Italian bond yields. USD/JPY is down -0.29 (-0.37%) at a 7-week low, although traders are nervous about possible Japanese intervention with today's comments by Japan's finance minister warning about intervention. The dollar index on Friday closed sharply higher: Dollar index +0.595 (+0.72%), EUR/USD -0.0124 (-1.01%), USD/JPY -0.10 (-0.13%). EUR/USD on Friday fell to a new 2-year low. The dollar index was boosted by increased safe-haven demand with the sell-off in stocks and the worsening European debt crisis. The Spanish 10-year bond yield on Friday soared by 26 bp to 7.23% after the Spanish government revised its 2013 GDP estimate to -0.5% from April's estimate of +0.2% and after the Spanish state of Valencia said it would be forced to request a bailout from the central government.
Sep WTI crude oil prices this morning are trading sharply lower by 2.58 (-2.81%) and Sep gasoline is down -0.0676 (-2.38%) on concerns about global economic growth and on this morning's higher trade in the dollar index. Crude oil and gasoline prices on Friday closed mixed: CLU2 -1.14 (-1.23%), RBU2 +0.0031 (+0.11%). Sep crude oil prices closed lower on Friday on the sell-off in stocks and the sharp rally in the dollar index. However, Sep crude oil remains near the top of its sharp 3-week rally that has been driven by (1) expectations for tightening global oil markets due to tighter sanctions on Iran, and (2) the 4-week decline in U.S. oil inventories due to the high operating rate of U.S. refineries. Oil prices received some support on Friday from an article in the Wall Street Journal citing U.S. officials as saying they believe Iran plans to start disrupting oil tanker traffic in the Persian Gulf with various types of attacks.

Monday 7/23/12
United States
0830 ET	Chicago Fed June national activity index, May -0.45.
1100 ET	USDA weekly grain export inspections.
1130 ET	Weekly 3-mo and 6-mo T-bill auctions.
1600 ET	USDA Crop Progress
1900 ET	Fed's Raskin speaks in Boulder, Colorado on community banking.
Euro-Zone
0930 ET	ECB announces bond purchases.
1000 ET	Jul Euro-Zone consumer confidence expected -0.2 to -20.0, Jun -19.8.
Japan
0100 ET	Japan June supermarket sales, May -1.7% y/y.
n/a	Japan Cabinet Office monthly economic report.
CHI
2200 ET	Jun China Conference Board leading economic index.
2230 ET	Jul China HSBC flash manufacturing PMI, Jun 48.2.

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