Friday, October 31, 2014

Texas Roadhouse - Chart of the Day

Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) is the Barchart Chart of the Day.  The mid-priced steakhouse has a Trend Spotter buy signal, a Weighted Alpha of 11.90+ , gained 5.67% in the last year while paying a 2.11% dividend yield.

The Chart of the Day belongs to Texas Roadhouse (TXRH).  I found the stock by sorting the All Time High list for the stocks with the best technical buy signals then used the Flipchart feature to review the charts.  The Trend Spotter signaled a buy on 10/28.

Texas Roadhouse is a growing, moderately priced, full service restaurant chain. They offer an assortment of specially seasoned and aged steaks hand-cut daily in every restaurant and cooked to order over open gas-fired grills. They also offer their customers, whom they call their guests, a selection of ribs, fish, chicken and vegetable plates, an assortment of hamburgers, salads and sandwiches.


Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.

 Barchart technical indicators:

  • 100% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 7 new highs and up 4.09% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 62.91%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 27.92
  • Recently traded at 28.90 with a 50 day moving average of 27.33
Fundamental factors
  • Market Cap $2.01 billion
  • P/E 24.13
  • Dividend yield 2.11%
  • Revenue expected to grow 9.40% this year and another 10.10% next year
  • Earnings estimated to increase 16.70% this year, an additional 15.90% next year and continue to increase at an annual rate of 12.52% for the next 5 years
  • Wall Street analysts issued 4 strong buy, 4 buy and 12 hold recommendations on the stock
The 100 day moving average vs. the price has been the most consistent technical indicator on this stock so I would use it for an exit point.
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5 Stocks for your Watchlist

Today I used Barchart to sort a list of Wall Street's highly recommended stocks to find the 5 with the best technical by signals for my Stock Picks blog.  The list includes Vectren (VVC), Ameren (AEE), American Electric Power (AEP), American Water Works (AWK) and Amgen (AMGN):

Vectren (VVC)


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 100% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 15 new high and up 13.43% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 79.17%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 44.22
  • Recently traded at 45.26 with a 50 day moving average of 41.29
Ameren (AEE)


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 100% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 14 new highs and up 11.09% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 72.39%
  • Barchart computes a technical support leve at 40.92
  • Recently traded at 42.58 with a 50 day moving average of 39.48


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 100% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 14 new highs and up 11.61% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 75.50%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 56.38
  • Recently traded at 58.27 with a 50 day moving average of 53.71


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 100% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 18 new highs and up 10.14% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 72.77%
  • Barchart computes a technical support leve at 51.85
  • Recently traded at 53.12 with a 50 day moving average of 49.73
Amgen (AMGN)


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 100% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 7 new highs and up 15.04% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 79.14%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 157.02
  • Recently traded at 161.58 with a 50 day moving average of 139.99










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BARCHART MORNING CALL 10/31

BARCHART MORNING CALL

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 +1.07%) this morning are up +1.16% at a contract high and European stocks are up +1.96% as global stocks rallied sharply after the BOJ unexpectedly expanded stimulus. The BOJ said it will increase holdings of government bonds to 80 trillion yen ($724 billion) from as much as 70 trillion yen and will boost exchange-traded fund purchases to 3 trillion yen. Asian stocks closed higher: Japan +4.83%, Hong Kong +1.25%, China +1.60%, Taiwan +0.98%, Australia +0.92%, Singapore +1.23%, South Korea +0.65%, India +1.90%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index soared to a 7-year high and China's Shanghai Stock Index climbed to a 1-1/2 year high on the unexpected action by the BOJ to raise stimulus. Japanese stocks also received a boost after Japan's Government Pension Investment Fund, the world's biggest pension fund, said it will raise its allocation target for Japanese and overseas equities to 25% from 12%. In an attempt to stop the slide in the ruble, the Bank of Russia raised its key interest rate to 9.5% from 8.0%. Commodity prices are mostly lower as the dollar surged after the BOJ's action to expand stimulus. Dec crude oil (CLZ14 -0.83%) is down -0.86%. Dec gasoline (RBZ14 -1.07%) is down -1.05%. Dec gold (GCZ14 -2.12%) is down -2.18% at a 4-1/4 year low. Dec copper (HGZ14 +0.65%) is up +0.60%. Agriculture prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.46%) is up +0.53% at a 4-week high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.29% at a 3-week low after Eurozone Oct core CPI rose at the slowest pace of increase on record. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +2.30% at a 6-3/4 year high as the yen plunged following the increase in quantitative easing by the BOJ. Dec T-note prices (ZNZ14 -0.21%) are down -5.5 ticks.
The BOJ unexpectedly expanded its stimulus measures by raising the target for enlarging the monetary base to 80 trillion yen ($724 billion), up from 60 to 70 trillion yen. The BOJ also lowered its estimate for the core consumer price index to +1.7% for the fiscal year through Mar 2016, down from a previous estimate of +1.9%.
The Eurozone Oct CPI estimate rose +0.4% y/y, right on expectations. The Oct core CPI rose +0.7% y/y, less than expectations of +0.8% y/y and matched the smallest pace of increase since the data series began in 1997.
The Eurozone Sep unemployment rate remained unchanged at 11.5% y/y, right on expectations.
German Sep retail sales tumbled -3.2% m/m, a bigger decrease than expectations of -0.9% m/m and the largest monthly decline in 7-1/3 years. On an annual basis, Sep retail sales rose +2.3% y/y, more than expectations of +1.2% y/y.
Japan Sep national CPI rose +3.2% y/y less than expectations of +3.3% y/y and the slowest pace of increase in 6 months. Sep national CPI ex-fresh food rose +3.0% y/y, right on expectations, and Sep national CPI ex food & energy rose +2.3% y/y, a faster pace of increase than expectations of +2.2% y/y.
The Japan Sep jobless rate rose +0.1 to 3.6%, right on expectations. The Sep job-to-applicant ratio fell -0.01 to 1.09, slightly weaker than expectations of unch at 1.10.
Japan Sep overall household spending dropped -5.6% y/y, a bigger decline than expectations of -4.3% y/y and the sixth consecutive month that spending has fallen.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today’s final-Oct U.S. consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan is expected to be unchanged from early-Oct at 86.4, thus leaving the index up by +1.8 points from Sep. Today’s Sep PCE deflator is expected to be unchanged from Aug at +1.5% y/y and for the Sep core PCE deflator to also be unchanged from Aug at +1.5% y/y. Today’s Oct Chicago PMI report is expected to fall -0.5 points to 60.0, adding to the -3.8 decline to 60.5 seen in September.
There are 14 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today with notable reports including: Berkshire Hathaway (consensus $2,592), Exxon (1.71), Chevron (2.52), AbbVie (0.77), Newell Rubbermaid (0.555), Weyerhaeuser (0.30), Aon (1.12). There are no equity conferences today.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Wyerhaeuser (WY +1.39%) reported Q3 EPS of 33 cents, higher than consensus of 30 cents.
Citigroup (C +0.95%) fell 1% in after-hours trading after it lowered its Q3 results due to a $600 million increase in legal accruals.
Mohawk (MHK +0.80%) reported Q3 EPS ex-items of $2.44, better than consensus of $2.42.
Fluor (FLR +1.36%) reported Q3 EPS of $1.15, higher than consensus of $1.10.
Live Nation (LYV +0.44%) reported Q3 EPS of 49 cents, stronger than consensus of 38 cents.
Standard Pacific (SPF +0.25%) reported Q3 EPS of 14 cents, less than consensus of 15 cents.
Mylan (MYL +2.99%) reported Q3 EPS of $1.16, better than consensus of $1.14, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2014 EPS view to $3.54-$3.60, above consensus of $3.49.
Groupon (GRPN +3.45%) reported Q3 EPS of 3 cents, triple consensus of 1 cent, but then lowered guidance on Q4 Q4 EPS ex-items to 2 cents-4 cents, below consensus of 7 cents.
Expedia (EXPE +1.50%) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $1.93, higher than consensus of $1.74.
Western Union (WU +1.64%) reported Q3 EPS of 44 cents, stronger than consensus of 38 cents.
Crown Castle (CCI +0.90%) reported Q3 FFO of $1.05, better than consensus of $1.01.
Starbucks (SBUX +1.02%) fell over 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 74 cents, right on consensus, although Q4 revenue of $4.20 billion was slightly less than consensus of $4.23. Starbucks then lowered guiidance on fiscal 2015 EPS to $3.08-$3.13, below consensus of $3.16.
LinkedIn (LNKD +1.70%) climbed more than 4% in pre-market trading after it reported Q3 EPS of 52 cents, stronger than consensus of 47 cents, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2014 EPS to $1.89, higher than consensus of $1.87.
Columbia Sportswear (COLM +0.16%) reported Q3 EPS of 93 cents, better than consensus of 87 cents, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2014 EPS to $1.80, higher than consensus of $1.76.
MARKET COMMENTS
Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 +1.07%) this morning are up sharply by +23.00 points (+1.16%) at a fresh contract high. The S&P 500 index on Thursday climbed to a 1-month high and closed higher: S&P 500 +0.62%, Dow Jones +1.30%, Nasdaq +0.25%. Bullish factors included (1) U.S. Q3 GDP that grew at a +3.5% q/q annualized pace, stronger than expectations of +3.0% q/q annualized, (2) strong Q3 stock earnings results with about 80% of reporting S&P 500 companies having beaten earnings estimates, and (3) reduced European recession concerns after Eurozone Oct economic confidence unexpectedly rose +0.8 to 100.7, better than expectations of -0.2 to 99.7.
Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ14 -0.21%) this morning are down -5.5 ticks. Dec 10-year T-note futures prices on Thursday closed higher: TYZ4 +5.50, FVZ4 +4.75. Supportive factors included (1) slack price pressures after the U.S. Q3 core PCE deflator increased at a +1.4% q/q pace, well below the Fed's 2.0% target, which fueled curve flattening trades where investors sell short-term Treasuries (i.e., 2-year and 5-year T-notes) and buy longer-term Treasuries ((i.e., 10-year T-notes and 30-year T-bonds), and (2) carry-over support from a rally n German bunds on speculation the ECB may expand stimulus measures after German Oct CPI rose less than expected.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.46%) this morning is up +0.458 (+0.53%) at a 4-week high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0036 (-0.29%) at a 3-week low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +2.51 (+2.30%) at a 6-3/4 year high. The dollar index on Thursday posted a 3-week high and closed higher. Closes: Dollar index +0.195 (+0.23%), EUR/USD -0.00189 (-0.15%), USD/JPY +0.325 (+0.30%). Bullish factors included (1) signs of U.S. economic strength after U.S. Q3 GDP expanded at a stronger-than-expected +3.5% q/q annualized pace, and (2) weakness in EUR/USD which fell to a 3-week low on speculation the ECB may expand stimulus after German Oct CPI fell -0.3% m/m, more than expectations of -0.1% m/m and the largest decline in 5 months.
Dec WTI crude oil (CLZ14 -0.83%) this morning is down -0.70 cents (-0.86%) and Dec gasoline (RBZ14 -1.07%) is down -0.0227 (-1.05%). Dec crude and Dec gasoline on Thursday closed lower. Closes: CLZ4 -1.15 (-1.40%), RBZ4 -0.0239 (-1.10%). Bearish factors included (1) Wednesday's action by the Fed to end QE3 along with the hawkish post-FOMC statement that boosted the dollar index to a 3-week high, and (2) carry-over bearishness from Wednesday's weekly EIA data that showed U.S. crude production rose to 8.97 million bpd, a 40-year high.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR10/31/2014
US0830 ETSep personal spending expected +0.1%, Aug +0.5%. Sep personal income expected +0.3%, Aug +0.3%.
0830 ETSep PCE deflator expected +0.1% m/m and +1.5% y/y, Aug unch m/m and +1.5% y/y. Sep core PCE deflator expected +0.1% m/m and +1.5% y/y, Aug +0.1% m/m and +1.5% y/y.
0830 ETQ3 employment cost index expected +0.5%, Q2 +0.7%.
0900 ETOct Milwaukee PMI expected -3.18 to 60.00, Sep +3.55 to 63.18.
0945 ETOct Chicago PMI expected -0.5 to 60.0, Sep -3.8 to 60.5.
0955 ETFinal-Oct U.S. consumer confidence (University of Michigan) expected unch at 86.4, prelim-Oct +1.8 to 86.4.
JPN0100 ETJapan Sep housing starts expected -17.2% y/y to 848,000, Aug -12.5% y/y to 845,000.
n/aBOJ announces interest rate decision.
GER0300 ETGerman Sep retail sales expected -0.9% m/m and +1.2% y/y, Aug +1.5% m/m and +0.1% y/y
EUR0600 ETEurozone Oct CPI estimate expected +0.4% y/y, Sep +0.3% y/y. Oct core CPI expected +0.8% y/y, Sep +0.8% y/y.
0600 ETEurozone Sep unemployment rate expected unch at 11.5%.
CHI2100 ETChina Oct manufacturing PMI (National Bureau of Statistics) expected +0.1 to 51.2, Sep unch at 51.1.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR10/31/2014
Company NameTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Newell Rubbermaid IncNWL USBef-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.551
Pinnacle West Capital CorpPNW USBef-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20142.134
AbbVie IncABBV USBef-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.773
Clorox Co/TheCLX USBef-mktQ1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20151.029
TECO Energy IncTE USBef-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.326
Dominion Resources Inc/VAD USBef-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.949
Weyerhaeuser CoWY USBef-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.299
Aon PLCAON US6:30Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20141.122
Legg Mason IncLM US7:00Q2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20150.005
Rockwell Collins IncCOL US7:30Q4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20141.268
NextEra Energy IncNEE US7:30Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20141.538
Exxon Mobil CorpXOM US8:00Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20141.708
Legg Mason IncLM US8:00Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
Eastman Chemical CoEMN US8:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Aon PLCAON US8:30Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Chevron CorpCVX US8:30Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20142.519
Tesoro CorpTSO US8:30Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Newell Rubbermaid IncNWL US9:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
AbbVie IncABBV US9:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Rockwell Collins IncCOL US9:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
TECO Energy IncTE US9:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
NextEra Energy IncNEE US9:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Exxon Mobil CorpXOM US9:30Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Newmont Mining CorpNEM US10:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Dominion Resources Inc/VAD US10:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Weyerhaeuser CoWY US10:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Crown Castle International CorpCCI US10:30Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Mohawk Industries IncMHK US11:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Chevron CorpCVX US11:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Pinnacle West Capital CorpPNW US12:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Public StoragePSA US13:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Apartment Investment & Management CoAIV US13:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Clorox Co/TheCLX US13:30Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015
Essex Property Trust IncESS US14:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Bristol-Myers Squibb CoBMY US14:30Investor Teleconference to Discuss CMSTO Highlights
Berkshire Hathaway IncBRK/A USQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20142592.69
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Thursday, October 30, 2014

Vistaprint - Chart of the Day

Vistaprint (VPRT) is the Barchart Chart of the Day.  The commercial printing company has a Trend Spotter buy signal, a Weighted Alpha of 28.70+ and gained 20.57% in the last year.

The Chart of the Day belongs to Vistaprint (VPRT).  I found the stock by sorting the All Time High list for the best technical buy signals then used the Flipchart feature to find a chart I liked.  Since the Trend Spotter signaled a buy on 10/5 the stock gained 16.08%.

VPRT is an online provider of coordinated portfolios of marketing products and services to small businesses globally. The company provides small businesses and consumers per year with the easiest way to make an impression at the best price. With a unique business model supported by proprietary technologies, high-volume production facilities, and direct marketing expertise, Vistaprint offers a wide variety of products for both small businesses and the home. The Company offers a range of products and services ranging from printed business cards, brochures and post cards to apparel, invitations and announcements, holiday cards, calendars, creative design services, copywriting services, direct mail services, promotional gifts, signage, Website design and hosting services, and e-mail marketing services. The Company has automated and integrated the design and production process, from design conceptualization to product shipment and service delivery.


Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.

 Barchart technical indicators:

  • 100% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signals
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 5 new highs and up 17.36% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 76.46%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 54.33
  • Recently traded at 64.07 with a 50 day moving average of 52.29
Fundamental factors:
  • Market Cap $2.14 billion
  • P/E 28.38
  • Revenue expected to grow 17.60% this year and another 8.60% next year
  • Earnings estimated to increase 24.70% this year, an additional 23.40% next year and continue to compound at an annual rate of 19.25% for the next 5 years
  • Wall Street analysts presently have issued 1 buy, 6 hold and 2 under perform recommendations on the stock
The 20-100 day MACD Oscillator has been the best technical trading strategy on this stock so I would continue to use that for an exit point
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5 Great NASDAQ 100 Stocks

Today I used Barchart to sort the NASDAQ 100 stocks to find the 5 with the best technical buy signals for my Daily Stock Picks list.  Today's list includes Automatic Data Processing (ADP), Amgen (AMGN), Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR), Apple (AAPL) and Alexion Pharmaceuticals (ALXN):

Automatic Data Processing (ADP)


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 100% Barc hart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 10 new highs and up 8.66% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 73.54%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 76.48
  • Recently traded at 79.13 with a 50 day moving average of 73.67
Amgen (AMGN)


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 100% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 7 new highs and up 14.64% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 78.79%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 155.69
  • Recently traded at 160.91 with a 50 day moving average of 139.97


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 100% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 10 day moving averages
  • 9 new highs and up 15.54% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 70.85%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 145.53
  • Recently traded at 150.46 with a 50 day moving average of 135.78
Apple (AAPL)


Barchart technical Indicators:
  • 96% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 9 new highs and up 6.10% in the last month
  • Relative strength Index 67.76%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 106.01
  • Recently traded at 106.99 with a 50 day moving average of 101.07


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 96% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving average
  • 9 new highs and up 16.76% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 70.18%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 185.04
  • Recently traded at 193.68 with a 50 day moving average of 169.54








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GoPro - sell signals

Today I deleted GoPro (GPRO) for the Barchart Van Meerten New High portfolio for extremely poor price momentum:

1 hour Chart:


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 31.10% off its recent high
  • Below its 20 and 50 day moving averages
  • Relative Strength Index 41.60%
  • Recently traded at 67.77 which is below its 50 day moving average of 70.50




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BARCHART MORNING CALL 10/30

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 -0.52%) this morning are down -0.43% ahead of U.S. Q3 GDP data that may show a slowdown in economic growth and European stocks are down -1.56% led by a slide in European bank stocks after the head of the Eurozone banking authority said that recent stress tests on banks weren't foolproof. European stocks fell even after Eurozone Oct economic confidence unexpectedly rose and after German Oct unemployment unexpectedly declined. Asian stocks closed mostly higher: Japan +0.67%, Hong Kong -0.49%, China +0.72%, Taiwan -0.18%, Australia +0.52%, Singapore +0.32%, South Korea +0.08%, India +0.92%. Japanese stocks closed higher, with the Nikkei Stock Index at a 3-week high, as exporters gained after the yen slipped to a 3-week low against the dollar, which boosts the earnings prospects of exporters. China's Shanghai Stock Index climbed to a 1-1/2 year high on speculation that the proposed trading link between the Hong Kong and Shanghai stock exchanges will spur foreign inflows into Chinese stocks. Commodity prices are mostly lower. Dec crude oil (CLZ14 -0.96%) is down -1.03%. Dec gasoline (RBZ14 -0.58%) is down -0.68%. Dec gold (GCZ14 -1.71%) is down -1.58%% at a 3-week low. Dec copper (HGZ14 -1.32%) is down -1.30%. Agriculture prices are higher. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.31%) is up +0.30% at a 3-week high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.32% at a 3-week low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.11% at a 3-week high. Dec T-note prices (ZNZ14 +0.09%) are up +2 ticks.
Eurozone Oct economic confidence unexpectedly rose +0.8 to 100.7, better than expectations of -0.2 to 99.7. The Oct business climate indicator rose +0.03 to 0.05 from a downward revised 0.02 in Sep, right on expectations.
German Oct unemployment unexpectedly fell -22,000, better than expectations of a +4,000 increase and the biggest decline in 6 months. The Oct unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.7%, right on expectations and the lowest since data for a reunified Germany began in 1991.
UK Oct Lloyds business barometer fell -22 from Sep to 35, the lowest in 1-1/2 years.
UK Oct nationwide house prices rose +0.5% m/m and +9.0% y/y, better than expectations of +0.3% m/m and +8.5% y/y.
Japan Sep vehicle production fell -2.6% y/y, an improvement from the -6.7% y/y decline in Aug, but the third straight monthly decline.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
The market is expecting today’s weekly initial unemployment claims report to show a small +2,000 increase to 285,000 and for continuing claims to show a small +1,000 increase to 2.352 million. The market is expecting today’s first estimate for Q3 GDP growth to show an increase of +3.0% (q/q annualized). The Treasury today will sell $29 billion of 7-year T-notes, concluding this week’s $108 billion T-note package.
There are 47 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today with notable reports including: MasterCard (0.78), Xcel Energy (0.76), Marathon (2.29), CME Group (0.82), Time Warner (1.90), Johnson Controls (1.01), Kellog (0.92), Newmont Mining (0.16), Fluor (1.10), Starbucks (0.74), Expedia (1.74). Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: GTEC (Government Technology Exhibition & Conference) 2014 on Tue-Thu.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Time Warner Cable (TWC +0.81%) reported Q3 EPS of $1.86, weaker than consensus of $1.90.
Level 3 (LVLT -0.93%) will replace Jabil Circuit (JBL -0.30%) in the S&P 500 as of the close of trading on November 4.
CME Group (CME +0.61%) reported Q3 EPS of 84 cents, higher than consensus of 82 cents.
Avis Budget (CAR -0.23%) reported Q3 EPS of $1.91, better than consensus of $1.80.
Baidu (BIDU -1.93%) reported Q3 EPS ex-items of $1.90, well above consensus of $1.69.
Williams (WMB +3.07%) reported Q3 EPS of 15 cents, weaker than consensus of 19 cents.
Con-way (CNW -0.53%) reported Q3 EPS of 78 cents, above consensus of 75 cents.
Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH +1.19%) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $1.11, better than consensus of $1.08, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2014 adjusted EPS to $2.28-$2.32, better than consensus of $2.26.
Kraft Foods (KRFT -0.59%) reported Q3 EPS ex-items of 78 cents, higher than consensus of 74 cents.
Fortune Brands (FBHS -0.52%) reported Q3 ex-items EPS of 55 cents, less than consensus of 56 cents.
Hanesbrands (HBI -0.15%) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $1.73, above consensus of $1.68.
Allstate (ALL -0.40%) reported Q3 EPS of $1.39, higher than consensus of $1.33.
F5 Networks (FFIV -2.60%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.57, better than consensus of $1.48.
MetLife (MET +0.33%) reported Q3 operating EPS of $1.60, well above consensus of $1.38.
Visa (V -0.95%) rose 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $2.18, stronger than consensus of $2.10.
Century Aluminum (CENX -0.22%) reported Q3 EPS of 52 cents, right on consensus, although Q3 revenue of $500.6 million was better than consensus of $488.64 million.
Akamai (AKAM -1.64%) reported Q3 EPS of 62 cents, higher than consensus of 57 cents.
Whiting Petroleum (WLL +1.21%) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $1.24, better than consensus of $1.22.
Unum Group (UNM -0.20%) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 87 cents, weaker than consensus of 90 cents.
MARKET COMMENTS
Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 -0.52%) this morning are down -8.50 points (-0.43%). The S&P 500 index on Wednesday fell back from a 1-month high and closed lower: S&P 500 -0.14%, Dow Jones -0.18%, Nasdaq -0.39%. The main bearish factor for stocks was the mildly hawkish FOMC post-meeting statement where the FOMC mentioned “solid job gains” with lower unemployment and that risks to the economy and the job outlook are “nearly balanced.” Bullish factors included (1) strength in energy producers as crude oil rallied and (3) strong Q3 stock earnings results with about 80% of reporting S&P 500 companies having beaten earnings estimates.
Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ14 +0.09%) this morning are up +2 ticks. Dec 10-year T-note futures prices on Wednesday slid to a 2-week low and closed lower: TYZ4 -16.00, FVZ4 -15.50. Bearish factors included (1) supply pressures as the Treasury auctions $108 billion of T-notes this week, and (2) the mildly hawkish post-FOMC statement where the FOMC said it sees “solid job gains” with lower unemployment and that underutilization of labor resources is gradually diminishing.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.31%) this morning is up +0.254 (+0.30%) at a 3-week high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0041 (-0.32%) at a 3-week low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.12 (+0.11%) at a 3-week high. The dollar index on Wednesday rallied to a 3-week high and closed higher. Closes: Dollar index +0.544 (+0.64%), EUR/USD -0.0102 (-0.80%), USD/JPY +0.735 (+0.68%). The main bullish factor was mildly hawkish FOMC statement where the FOMC said it sees “solid job gains” with lower unemployment, which increases the chances that the Fed will raise interest rates sooner rather than later.
Dec WTI crude oil (CLZ14 -0.96%) this morning is down -85 cents (-1.03%) and Dec gasoline (RBZ14 -0.58%) is down -0.0148 (-0.68%). Dec crude and Dec gasoline on Wednesday closed higher with Dec gasoline at a 2-week high. Closes: CLZ4 +0.78 (+0.96%), RBZ4 +0.0258 (+1.20%). Bullish factors included (1) the +2.06 million bbl increase in weekly EIA crude supplies, less than expectations of +3.8 million bbl, and (2) the -1.24 million bbl decline in weekly EIA gasoline inventories to a 23-month low of 203.14 million bbl, nearly double expectations of a -650,000 bbl draw.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR10/30/2014
US0830 ETWeekly initial unemployment claims expected +2,000 to 285,000, previous +17,000 to 283,000. Weekly continuing claims expected +1,000 to 2.352 million, previous 38,000 to 2.351 million.
0830 ETQ3 GDP expected +3.0% q/q annualized, Q2 +4.6%. Q3 personal consumption expected +1.9%, Q2 +2.5%. Q3 GDP price index expected +1.4%, Q2 +2.1%, Q3 core PCE expected +1.4% q/q, Q2 +2.0% q/q.
0830 ETUSDA weekly Export Sales.
0900 ETFed Chair Janet Yellen delivers welcoming remarks to the Fed Boards National Summit on Diversity in the Economics Profession.
1300 ETTreasury auctions $29 billion 7-year T-notes.
JPN0000 ETJapan Sep vehicle production, Aug -6.7% y/y.
1930 ETJapan Sep jobless rate expected +0.1 to 3.6%. Sep job-to-applicant ratio expected unch at 1.10.
1930 ETJapan Sep overall household spending expected -4.3% y/y, Aug -4.7% y/y.
1930 ETJapan Sep national CPI expected +3.3% y/y, Aug +3.3% y/y. Sep national CPI ex-fresh food expected +3.0% y/y, Aug +3.1% y/y. Sep national CPI ex food & energy expected +2.2% y/y, Aug +2.3% y/y.
1930 ETJapan Oct Tokyo CPI expected +2.7% y/y, Sep +2.9% y/y. Oct Tokyo CPI ex-fresh food expected +2.5% y/y, Sep +2.6% y/y. Oct Tokyo CPI ex food & energy expected +2.0% y/y, Sep +2.0% y/y.
GER0455 ETGerman Oct unemployment change expected +4,000, Sep +12,000. Oct unemployment rate expected unch at 6.7%.
0900 ETGerman Oct CPI (EU harmonized) expected -0.1% m/m and +0.9% y/y, Sep unch m/m and +0.8% y/y.
UK0300 ETUK Oct nationwide house prices expected +0.3% m/m and +8.5% y/y, Sep -0.2% m/m and +9.4% y/y.
0530 ETUK Oct Lloyds business barometer, Sep 57.
2005 ETUK Oct GfK consumer confidence expected unch at -1.
EUR0600 ETEurozone Oct economic confidence expected -0.2 to 99.7, Sep 99.9. Oct business climate indicator expected 0.02 to 0.05, Sep 0.07.
0600 ETRevised Eurozone Oct consumer confidence, previous +0.3 to -11.1.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR10/30/2014
Company NameTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Xcel Energy IncXEL USBef-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.755
Air Products & Chemicals IncAPD USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20141.614
Marathon Petroleum CorpMPC USBef-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20142.285
BorgWarner IncBWA USBef-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.787
ConocoPhillipsCOP USBef-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20141.206
Avon Products IncAVP USBef-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.164
Ball CorpBLL USBef-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20141.055
Allegion PLCALLE USBef-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.641
L-3 Communications Holdings IncLLL USBef-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20141.842
Pitney Bowes IncPBI USBef-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.46
AmerisourceBergen CorpABC USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20141.052
SCANA CorpSCG USBef-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.963
MasterCard IncMA USBef-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.782
Fidelity National Information Services IncFIS USBef-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.791
CME Group Inc/ILCME USBef-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.823
Cigna CorpCI US6:00Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20141.825
Iron Mountain IncIRM US6:00Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.633
Time Warner Cable IncTWC US6:00Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20141.895
Host Hotels & Resorts IncHST US6:00Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.315
NiSource IncNI US6:30Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.159
Altria Group IncMO US7:00Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.68
American Tower CorpAMT US7:00Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20141.073
National Oilwell Varco IncNOV US7:00Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20141.542
Mosaic Co/TheMOS US7:00Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.58
Cardinal Health IncCAH US7:00Q1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20150.959
Johnson Controls IncJCI US7:00Q4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20141.008
Public Service Enterprise Group IncPEG US7:30Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.742
Invesco LtdIVZ US7:30Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.623
Pitney Bowes IncPBI US8:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Harman International Industries IncHAR US8:00Q1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20151.114
Kellogg CoK US8:00Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.921
MetLife IncMET US8:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Assurant IncAIZ US8:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Allegion PLCALLE US8:30Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Cigna CorpCI US8:30Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Iron Mountain IncIRM US8:30Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Time Warner Cable IncTWC US8:30Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
American Tower CorpAMT US8:30Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Cardinal Health IncCAH US8:30Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015
Fidelity National Information Services IncFIS US8:30Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
CME Group Inc/ILCME US8:30Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
NiSource IncNI US9:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Altria Group IncMO US9:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Avon Products IncAVP US9:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Invesco LtdIVZ US9:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Noble Corp plcNE US9:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Unum GroupUNM US9:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
MasterCard IncMA US9:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
FMC CorpFMC US9:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
National Oilwell Varco IncNOV US9:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Mosaic Co/TheMOS US9:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Allstate Corp/TheALL US9:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Range Resources CorpRRC US9:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
BorgWarner IncBWA US9:30Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Williams Cos Inc/TheWMB US9:30Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Kellogg CoK US9:30Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Mattel IncMAT US9:30Analyst DayY 2014
Xcel Energy IncXEL US10:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Air Products & Chemicals IncAPD US10:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Marathon Petroleum CorpMPC US10:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Progressive Corp/ThePGR US10:00Investor Relations Conference Call
Lincoln National CorpLNC US10:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Host Hotels & Resorts IncHST US10:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Ball CorpBLL US11:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
L-3 Communications Holdings IncLLL US11:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Public Service Enterprise Group IncPEG US11:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
AmerisourceBergen CorpABC US11:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Ensco PLCESV US11:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Harman International Industries IncHAR US11:00Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015
Johnson Controls IncJCI US11:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
ConocoPhillipsCOP US12:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Public Service Enterprise Group IncPEG US12:00Q3 2014 Media Conference Call
Murphy Oil CorpMUR US13:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
SCANA CorpSCG US13:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Juniper Networks IncJNPR US13:00Investor DayY 2014
Western Union Co/TheWU US16:00Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.382
Mylan Inc/PAMYL US16:30Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Western Union Co/TheWU US16:30Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Expedia IncEXPE US16:30Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Republic Services IncRSG US17:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
PerkinElmer IncPKI US17:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Starbucks CorpSBUX US17:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Eastman Chemical CoEMN US17:00Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20141.803
Mylan Inc/PAMYL USAft-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20141.138
Newmont Mining CorpNEM USAft-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.16
Fluor CorpFLR USAft-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20141.096
Republic Services IncRSG USAft-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.527
Microchip Technology IncMCHP USAft-mktQ2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20150.665
Crown Castle International CorpCCI USAft-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20141.023
Mohawk Industries IncMHK USAft-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20142.416
Public StoragePSA USAft-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20142.064
Tesoro CorpTSO USAft-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20142.16
PerkinElmer IncPKI USAft-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.566
Starbucks CorpSBUX USAft-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.743
Apartment Investment & Management CoAIV USAft-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.513
Essex Property Trust IncESS USAft-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20142.101
Expedia IncEXPE USAft-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20141.742
Fluor CorpFLR US17:30Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Microchip Technology IncMCHP USQ2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
Computer Sciences CorpCSC USQ2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20151.013
Equifax IncEFX USInvestor Meeting - ChicagoY 2014
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