Weekly Market Recap W/E 10/15

That time again after the market's Friday close to use Barchart to find the data for our 3 yard sticks.  3 are necessary because none of them work all of the time and each measures the market momentum in a slightly different way.

Value Line Index -- Contains 1700 stocks so its much broader than the narrow S&P 500 or very narrow Dow 30 -- Trend still upward

• Index up 1.26% for the week and up 6.78% for the last month
• Index hit new highs in 14 of the last 20 trading sessions
• 96% Barchart technical buy signal
• Closed Friday above its 20, 50 and 100 daily moving averages

Barchart Market Momentum -- Contains approximately 6000 stocks -- Percentage of stocks closing above their Daily Moving Averages for various time periods -- Above 50% always great

• Friday over 75.38% closed above their 20 DMA, over 83.16% closed above their 50 DMA, over 83.49% closed above their 100 DMA
• Last week over 80.06% closed above their 20 DMA, over 84.94% closed above their 50 DMA , over 82.10% closed above their 100 DMA
• Last month over 78.86% closed above their 20 DMA, over 72.66% closed above their 50 DMA, over 66.38% closed above their 100 DMA

Ratio of stocks hitting new highs/new lows for various time periods - 1.0+ bullish, 1.0 neutral, below .99 bearish -- Bullish for all time periods

1 month new highs/new lows -- 1312/121 = 10.84

3 month new highs/new lows -- 901/36 = 25.06

6 month new highs/new lows -- 472/27 = 17.48

Summary and Investment Strategy -- All 3 yardsticksks showed positive trends this week.  Next week I'll still trim stocks that don't perform well and replace them as long as all 3 indicators stay positive.

Jim Van Meerten is an advisor to Marketocracy Capital Management who uses his model portfolios not only to manage their mutual funds but also their clients Separately Managed Accounts. You can read his blogs about those model portfolios and investing here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.




Disclosure: Jim Van Meerten through Marketocracy Capital Management has an interest in the stocks mentioned in this blog.

Broadridge Financial Solutions -- BR -- deleted

I have deleted Broadridge Financial Solutions (BR) from the Barchart Van Meerten New High portfolio for negative price movement.

• 60% Barchart short term sell signal
• Trend Spotter (tm) sell signal
• Trading below its 20 and 50 day moving average
• Lost 7.04% in the last 5 days
• Relative Strength Index is only 28.61% and dropping

Jim Van Meerten is an advisor to Marketocracy Capital Management who uses his model portfolios not only to manage their mutual funds but also their clients Separately Managed Accounts. You can read his blogs about those model portfolios and investing here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.

Disclosure: Jim Van Meerten through Marketocracy Capital Management has an interest in the stocks mentioned in this blog.

Why I think Motley Fool and Wall Street brokerages matter

Over the years I have received numerous comments that popularity with the Fool's on Motley Fool or the bigger fools on Wall Street should not be taken into consideration in investing decisions -- I think they do.  Although popularity might not make a stock, I think negative sentiment can hurt it in the short run.  Just look how a positive earnings report with a growth in both sales and earnings can make a stock go down just because the company didn't meet the expectations of all those inexperienced recent MBA graduates that Wall Street employs.

Here is my reply to John:

 John - If you've followed my articles over the year you'd know that I do not buy because of public opinion on Motley Fool or because Wall Street brokerages have buy reports.


I find stocks based on my use of Barchart and the stock's price movement. I buy in the hopes that the upward trend will continue.

I use Motley Fool and Wall Street as a reality check. If I see a stock moving up but the Fools and brokerage firms are all trashing it, I would be a fool not to think that there would be major upside resistance.

Remember the title of my blog original blog was Financial Tides. I would be a fool to swim against the tides and buy a stock if the Fools and brokerages firms were all bailing out.

Buy drugs at a discount

Pfizer (PFE) is my S&P 100 pick of the day.  PFE is a research-based, global pharmaceutical company that discovers and develops innovative, value-added products that improve the quality of life of people around the world and help them enjoy longer, healthier, and more productive lives. Pfizer has three business segments: health care, animal health and consumer health care. Its products are available in numerous countries.

You can't turn on TV without seeing Viagra and Lipitor commercials, two of their most recognized brands.  Although the patent for Lipitor runs out next year, the acquisition of Wyeth has brought in Enbrel and Zosyn to take it's place so the sales and earnings streams seem assured.  The 4.50% dividend isn't so bad either.

Right now the stock has upward price momentum and hit 9 new highs in the last 20 session for a 3.57% price increase,  Barchart has a 100% technical buy signal and the stock trades around 17.71 which is above it's 50 day moving average of 16.72.  The Relative Strength Index is 64.10% and rising.

Wall Street brokerages like this stock and have 17 buy and 6 hold reports published.  When you look at their reports it seems strange because although they expect sales to increase this year by 35.80% they are not forecasting great earnings forecasts.  They estimate an EPS increase of only 3.20% next year and a 5 year EPS annual growth rate of only 1.40%.  A closer look at the reports show that this stock normally has a P/E ratio of 15 to 16 but at today's price is trading around a 14 P/E ratio.  If normal ratios are achieved that could be a gain of 10 to 15%.

The general public is very high on the drug stocks and the CAPS members on Motley Fool vote 5,447 to 584 that the stock will beat the market with the All Stars voting 1,500 to 86 for the same result.  Wall Street columnists have written positive articles 31 to 2.

Points to consider:

• The 100% Barchart technical buy signal coupled with the 64.10% and rising Relative Strength Index show the stock is experiencing upward price trend
• Wall Street brokerages have buy recommendation published for their broker to push to clients.
• A wide and positive general investor following
• A 4.50% dividend and a discounted P/E ratio make it attractive in the short term

Jim Van Meerten is an advisor to Marketocracy Capital Management who uses his model portfolios not only to manage their mutual funds but also their clients Separately Managed Accounts. You can read his blogs about those model portfolios and investing here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.


Disclosure: Jim Van Meerten through Marketocracy Capital Management has an interest in the stocks mentioned in this blog.

Netsol Technologies - NTWK - added

NetSol Technologies (NTWK) was added to the Barchart Van Meerten Speculative portfolio.  They are a multinational provider of enterprise software and IT services to the financial services industry. NTWK helps clients to identify, evaluate and implement technology solutions to meet their strategic business challenges and maximize their bottom line. By utilizing its worldwide resources, NetSol delivers high-quality, cost-effective equipment and vehicle finance portfolio management solutions. The Company also delivers managed IT services ranging from consulting and application development to systems integration and development outsourcing. NetSol's commitment to quality is demonstrated by its achievement of both ISO 9001 and SEI (Software Engineering Institute) CMMi (Capability Maturity Model) Level 5 assessment, a distinction shared by only 94 companies worldwide. The Company's clients include global automakers, financial institutions, technology companies and governmental agencies.

This is a very speculative play and has a 96% Barchart overall technical buy signal along with 16 new highs in the last 20 sessions.  The stock had a 78.85% run up last month alone and trades around 1.87 well above its 50 day moving average of 1.16.  The stock has a Relative strength Index of 77.53%.

At the present time only one brokerage firm is following the stock and has a buy recommendation based on an estimate that the earnings per share will grow 20.00% annually for the next 5 years.

Even without broad coverage the stock is expected to out perform the market by the Motley Fool CAPS members vote of 92 to 8 and the All Star vote of 31 to 3.

This is a highly volatile and thinly traded issue so it should be watched closely.

Jim Van Meerten is an advisor to Marketocracy Capital Management who uses his model portfolios not only to manage their mutual funds but also their clients Separately Managed Accounts. You can read his blogs about those model portfolios and investing here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.




Disclosure: Jim Van Meerten through Marketocracy Capital Management has an interest in the stocks mentioned in this blog.

Oneok Partners LP - OKS -- added

This morning I added Oneok Partners LP (OKS) to the Barchart Van Meerten New High portfolio.  The stock a general partnership that owns an interstate pipeline system that transports natural gas from the Montana-Saskatchewan border to natural gas markets in the midwestern United States. This pipeline system connects with multiple pipelines that provide shippers with access to the various natural gas markets served by those pipelines.  This an almost total US play and should not be subject to political Instability or trade tariffs.

The issue rates a 96% Barchart overall buy signal and hit 14 new highs in the last 20 sessions.  The stock has increased by 9.49% last month and trades around 77.81 which is above its 50 day moving average of 71.86.  It's not often you find this kind of capital appreciation, a 74.19% Relative Strength Index and a 6.50% dividend while you wait.

The stock is popular with Wall Street brokerage firms who have issued 6 buy and 6 hold recommendations.  They look for a 32.10% increase in sales this year and an increase in earnings per share of 16.50% next year.

The stock has a good following on Motley Fool with the CAPS members voting 564 to 11 that the stock will beat the market and the All Stars agree with a vote of 249 to 6.

The stock has several points to consider:

• A pure US energy play on natural gas
• Recent and positive price momentum
• 6.50% dividend
• Wall Street buy reports published for their clients
• A wide and positive general investor following

Jim Van Meerten is an advisor to Marketocracy Capital Management who uses his model portfolios not only to manage their mutual funds but also their clients Separately Managed Accounts. You can read his blogs about those model portfolios and investing here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.




Disclosure: Jim Van Meerten through Marketocracy Capital Management has an interest in the stocks mentioned in this blog.

ETF pick of the day - 10/13 - Ultra Silver - AGQ

ProShares Ultra Silver (AGQ) seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to twice (200%) the daily performance of silver bullion as measured by the U.S. Dollar fixing price for delivery in London.

Points to consider:

• 96% Barchart overall buy signal
• 19 new highs in 20 sessions
• 36.44% increase last month
• Relative Strength Index 75.74% and rising

Bemis - BMS - New High pick of the day - 10/13

Bemis Company, Inc. (BMS) a principal manufacturer of flexible packaging products and pressure sensitive materials selling to customers throughout the United States, Canada, and Europe with a growing presence in Asia Pacific, South America, and Mexico. The primary market for its products is the food industry. Other markets include companies in chemical, agribusiness, medical, pharmaceutical, sanitary products, graphic industries, and other consumer goods.

Points to consider:

• 96% Barchart overall buy signal
• 19 new highs in 20 sessions
• 9.80% price increase last month
• Relative Strength Index 80.53% and rising

S&P 100 pick of the day - 10/13 - Phillip Morris - PM

Philip Morris International  (PM) is the leading international tobacco company, with products sold in over 160 countries. They own 7 of the top 15 brands in the world and have a strong mix of international and local products that seek to appeal to a wide array of adult smokers.

This company is the proverbial cash cow and is using its cash flow not only to repurchase its stock but to acquire smaller tobacco brands in the emerging markets all over the world.  Although sales may be off in the US and Europe the growth markets in Asia and Latin America may more than offset shrinking markets in the developed nations.

The price has show upward price momentum with 12 new highs in the last 20 sessions and an increase of 5.93% last month.   Barchart has a  96% overall buy signal with the stock trading around 57.18 well above its 50 day moving average of 53.97.  The Relative Strength Index is a solid 70.64%.

Wall Street brokerages have 12 buy and 3 hold reports published for their clients and estimate that sales will increase 9.20$% this year and 4.80% next year.  I like the double digit earnings forecasts of an increase of 13.90% this year, followed by 11.10% next year.  The 5 year annual EPS growth rate is projected to be 11.00%.

This is a very widely followed stock and the CAPS members on Motley Fool are in love with it voting 2,285 to 50 that the stock will beat the market with the All Stars in agreement 754 to 10.  The last 17 articles by Wall Street columnists have all been positive also.
Points to consider:

• 96% Barchart overall buy signal
• 12 new highs in the last 20 sessions
• Up 5.93% last month
• Relative Strength Index 70.64%
• Wall Street buy recommendations based on double digit EPS projections
• Great following by the general investing public

Jim Van Meerten is an advisor to Marketocracy Capital Management who uses his model portfolios not only to manage their mutual funds but also their clients Separately Managed Accounts. You can read his blogs about those model portfolios and investing here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com

Disclosure: Jim Van Meerten through Marketocracy Capital Management has an interest in the stocks mentioned in this blog.

NASDAQ 100 pick of the day -- 10/13 -- STX - Seagate Technologies

Seagate Technology (STX) is the worldwide leader in the design, manufacture and marketing of hard disc drives, providing products for a wide-range of applications, including Enterprise, Desktop, Mobile Computing, Consumer Electronics and Branded Solutions. Seagate's business model leverages technology leadership and world-class manufacturing to deliver industry-leading innovation and quality to its global customers, and to be the low cost producer in all markets in which it participates. The company is committed to providing award- winning products, customer support and reliability to meet the world's growing demand for information storage.

Recent competition from flash memory devices has caused some pricing erosion but with new products in the pipeline STX should be alright in the long run,

Recent price momentum has seen a 16.84% price increase last month with the stock hitting 9 new highs in the last 20 sessions.  The price recently turned upward and Barchart has a 100% short term buy signal with the stock trading around 12.62 which is above its 50 day moving average of 11.34.  The 14 day Relative Strength Index is 63.35%

Wall Street brokerages have 14 buy and 12 hold reports publicised to their clients and estimate that sales will be up by 4.10% next year.  Earnings per share is the real issue with a 14.60% increase expected next year followed by an annual 5 year EPS growth rate of 10.50%,

General investor sentiment is high and wide with the CAPS members on Motley Fool voting 1,089 to 72 that the stock will beat the market.  The more experienced All Stars agree 420 to 13.  Fool notes that recent articles have been positive 21 to 2.

Points to consider:

• 100% Barchart short term buy signal
• 9 new highs in the last 20 sessions
• 16.84% price increase last month
• Relative Strength Index 63.35%
• 14 buy recommendations from Wall Street brokerages
• Very positive investor sentiment

Jim Van Meerten is an advisor to Marketocracy Capital Management who uses his model portfolios not only to manage their mutual funds but also their clients Separately Managed Accounts. You can read his blogs about those model portfolios and investing here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs. Please leave a comment below or email  jimvanmeerten@gmail.com


Disclosure: Jim Van Meerten through Marketocracy Capital Management has an interest in the stocks mentioned in this blog.

Target looks for double digit EPS growth

Target (TGT) is my S&P 100 pick of the day.  TGT operates large-format general merchandise and food discount stores in the United States, which include Target and SuperTarget stores. They offer both everyday essentials and fashionable, differentiated merchandise at exceptional prices. Their ability to deliver a shopping experience that is preferred by their guests is supported by their strong supply chain and technology infrastructure. They operate as a single business segment. Their credit card operations represent an integral component of their core retail business. They also operate a fully integrated online business, Target.com. Although Target.com is small relative to their overall size, its sales are growing at a much more rapid pace than their in-store sales, and it provides important benefits to their stores and credit card operations.

The company wide retro-fit to include groceries at all location is well underway.  A stock buy back plan should also increase shareholder value.  Although sames store sales are up only 2.80% and this years sales are only expected to be up 3.70% and next year only by 4.70% ,the real story is in earning projections.  Wall Street analysts estimate earnings per share growth of 17.90% this year, 13.10% next year and continue annually at a rate of 12.90% for the next 5 years.

The technical indicators on Barchart have noticed the stocks price momentum with a 100% technical buy signal.  The stock has been up in all 5 of the last sessions and traded at 54.85 which is above its 50 day moving average of 52.82.  The Relative Strength Index is 51.88% and rising.

The stock is as popular with investors as it is with shoppers and the CAPS members on Motley Fool vote 2,129 to 224 that the stock will beat the market with the All Stars in agreement by a vote of 626 to 50.  Fool notes that Wall Street columnists have been writing positive articles 21 to 1.

If you need a large retailer for your core holdings consider that Target:

• Is a Wall Street darling with brokerages publishing 19 buy and 5 hold recommendations for their customers based on a 5 year projection of double digit earnings increases
• Has a 100% Barchart technical buy signal
• Shoppers as well as investors give the company a vote of confidence

Jim Van Meerten is an advisor to Marketocracy Capital Management who uses his model portfolios not only to manage their mutual funds but also their clients Separately Managed Accounts. You can read his blogs about those model portfolios and investing here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.


Disclosure: Jim Van Meerten through Marketocracy Capital Management has an interest in the stocks mentioned in this blog.

NASDAQ 100 - Wynn Resorts - WYNN

Wynn Resorts Limited (WYNN) and its wholly-owned subsidiaries Wynn Las Vegas and Wynn Capital will own and operate Le Reve, which they've designed to be the preeminent luxury hotel and destination casino resort in Las Vegas. Le Reve will be situated at the site of the former Desert Inn & Casino on the Las Vegas Strip in Las Vegas, Nevada. 

It would be a major mistake to only think of Wynn as a Las Vegas property and a main target of Prez Obama's Nevada hit list.  Fully 60% of their revenue comes from their properties in Macau and the newly rich and super rich of the Asian realm are flocking there in major numbers.  The revenue at the Macau property doubled year over year and seemed to have double digit month over month growth rates projected.

Asia is recovering faster than the rest of the world and Macau is prospering.

Wall Street looks for revenue to be up 29.00% this year and 7.20% next year.  Since the real growth is not in hotel and food sales but gambling these increases fall to the bottom line.  Analysts expect EPS growth of 515.40% this year, 33.10% next year and 24.48% annually for the next 5 years.

Barchart has a 100% technical buy signal with the stock trading around 97.17 well above its 50 day moving average of 88.60.  The stock was up 8.57% last month and has a rising Relative Strength Index of 63.99%.

The general investor is starting to find this stock and the CAPS members on Motley Fool vote 759 to 342 that the stock will out perform the market.  The All Stars have a similar vote of 202 to 103. Out of the last 16 articles about the company only one has been negative but since that was written by Citi all the way back in 2008 I think it should be discounted.

The stock has promise if:

• You are looking for a China play in the luxury services to the newly rich in China
• The double digit monthly growth rates continue
• You like a price rise that is consistent

Jim Van Meerten is an advisor to Marketocracy Capital Management who uses his model portfolios not only to manage their mutual funds but also their clients Separately Managed Accounts. You can read his blogs about those model portfolios and investing here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.


Disclosure: I have no interest in this stock at the time of publication

Blog Disclosure

Jim Van Meerten is an advisor to Marketocracy Capital Management who uses his model portfolios not only to manage their mutual funds but also their clients Separately Managed Accounts. You can read his blogs about those model portfolios and investing here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com
.




Disclosure: Jim Van Meerten through Marketocracy Capital Management has an interest in the stocks mentioned in this blog.

Xerox -- XRX - S&P 100

S&P 100 stock Xerox Corporation (XRX) is The Document Company and a leader in the global document market, providing document solutions that enhance business productivity. The Company has expertise in the production and management of documents: color and black-and-white, digital and paper, across networks or on a desktop, in a commercial print facility or a quick-print shop, for the small office or the global enterprise.

Contributions for the ACS acquisition and the R&D activity from the Fuji-Xerox division position this stock to take care of synergies both presently and in the future.  There is great promise in the development of the
 i Gen 4 high speed publishing capabilities.

Wall Street has 6 buy and 4 hold recommendations published for their brokers to push to clients.  The buys are based on estimated sales increase of 42.30% this year and 6.10% next year. Increases in earnings are projected to be 53.30% this year and 16.60% next year.

Investors have noticed these recommendations and the stock had 14 new highs in the last 20 session for a 22.09% increase last month.  Barchart has a 100% technical buy signal and the stock trades around 11.08 well above its 50 day moving average of 9.62.  The stocks upward momentum gives it a rising 62.21% 14 day Relative Strength Index.

The general investors are positive on this issue with the CAPS members on Motley Fool voting 385 to 66 that the stock will beat the market with the All Stars in agreement 108 to 14.  Fool notes that all of the last 12 Wall Street columnists articles have been positive.

The issue looks good with:

• 100% Barchart buy signal
• 14 new highs in 20 sessions
• Wall Street buy recommendations based on increases in sales and earnings
• Wide and positive general investor interest

Jim Van Meerten is an advisor to Marketocracy Capital Management who uses his model portfolios not only to manage their mutual funds but also their clients Separately Managed Accounts. You can read his blogs about those model portfolios and investing here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com

Disclosure: Jim Van Meerten does not have an interest in this stock.


















Disclosure: Jim Van Meerten through Marketocracy Capital Management has an interest in the stocks mentioned in this blog.

J C Penney -- JCP -- added

I added J C Penney (JCP) to the Barchart Van Meerten New High portfolio.  JCP is one of America's leading retailers, operating department stores throughout the United States and Puerto Rico, as well as one of the largest apparel and home furnishing sites on the Internet, jcp.com, and the nation's largest general merchandise catalog business. Through these integrated channels, JCPenney offers a wide array of national, private and exclusive brands.

We I was a kid my family was a Sear Roebuck family.  I always loved thumbing through the catalogue and learning the difference between the Good, Better and Best on all the products.  My Dad was in construction and always bought Craftsman tools and my grandfather and I used J C Higgins sports equipment unless I had extra money and then I'd upgrade to Ted Williams.  My school clothes were King's Row.  Every Friday night we'd go to Sear's Town on Sunrise and Federal Highway in Lauderdale and get candy from the kiosk under the escalator.  I thought Sears was the greatest store in the world, especially the Christmas toy catalogue.

That all changed one Sunday when Mr. Penney started wintering in Lauderdale and began attending First Lutheran.  Pastor Anderson would always introduce Mr Penney and he awlays had a dark 3 piece suit with a watch and chain in his vest pockets.  That was the day I became a Stafford man.  My first 3 piece suit was a Stafford and I still buy the label because of the reports I'd read in Consumer Reports about the quality of that clothing line.

Enough of memory lane. Why buy Jacque Pennee as people like to call it now?

Well this retailer has weathered the storm by cutting back on their store expansion plans and paying attention to costs and the bottom line.  Sames store sales are modestly up and profits are falling to the bottom of the earnings statement again.

Wall Street analysts predict small increases in sales of 1.40% this year and 2.40% next year but earnings are the real story. They predict increases in earnings of 32.70% this year, 26.80% next year and 12.29% annually for the next 5 years.  They have 7 buy and 8 hold reports issued to their clients.

Price momentum has been very robust with the stock shooting up 58.87% last month and Barchart issuing an 88% buy signal.  The stock recently traded at 32.48 well above its 50 day moving average of 23.29.  The stock hit new highs in 19 of the last 20 trading sessions and has a Relative Strength Index of 89.99% and rising.

General investor sentiment is solid with the CAPS members on Motley Fool voting 523 to 161 that the stock will beat the market.  The All Stars agree 158 to 37.

The stock looks good for the following reasons:

• Barchart 88% technical buy signal
• 19 new highs in the last 20 sessions
• Wall Street brokerages have issued buy recommendations to their clients based on expected double digit increases in EPS for at least 5 years
• Wide and positive general investor sentiment

Since this stock is moving fast if you purchase please, please monitor the price on a daily basis as this issue will be over bought soon and will probably correct itself back to fair value.

Jim Van Meerten is an advisor to Marketocracy Capital Management who uses his model portfolios not only to manage their mutual funds but also their clients Separately Managed Accounts. You can read his blogs about those model portfolios and investing here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.

Disclosure: Jim Van Meerten through Marketocracy Capital Management has an interest in the stocks mentioned in this blog.