Friday, July 4, 2014

The Year's NASDAQ 100 Winners

I used Barchart to sort the NASDAQ 100 Index stocks to find the 5 that has the best year to date rise in prices.  A look at their charts and technical indicators show that they still may have a little more upside to come.

The list includes Keuring Green Mountain (GMCR) 65.79%, Illumina (ILMN) 60.98%, Micron Technology (MU) 55.08%, Tesla Motors (TSLA) 52.40%, Sandisk (SNDK) 51.35%:

Keurig Grenn Mountain (GMCR)


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 88% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 7 new highs and up 11.18% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 60.98%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 121.07
  • Recently traded at 125.24 with a 50 day moving average of 112.59
Illumina (ILMN)


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 100% Barchart technical by signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 9 new highs and up 14.59% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 69.33%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 177.68
  • Recently traded at 182.86 with a 50 day moving average of 158.64


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 96% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above  its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 11 new highs and up 17.65% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 70.90%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 33.26
  • Recently traded at 33.763 with a 50 day moving average of 28.43


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 24% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 8 new highs and up 11.86% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 56.38%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 222.48
  • Recently traded at 229.25 with a 50 day moving average of 210.51
Sandisk (SNDK)


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 96% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 10 new highs and up 9.50% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 78.99%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 105.51
  • Recently traded at 106.76 with a 50 day moving average of 95.25










Thursday, July 3, 2014

Ellie Mae - Barchart's Chart of the Day

Ellie Mae (ELLI) is the Barchart Chart of the Day. The electronic mortgage origination network has a Trend Spotter buy signal, a Weighted Alpha of 39.70+ and gained 35.94% in the last year.

The Chart of the Day belongs to Ellie Mae (ELLI).  I found the stock by sorting the New High List for new high frequency in the last month then used the Flipchart feature to find the chart I liked. Since the Trend Spotter signaled a buy on 5/12 the stock gained 21.79%.

ELLI operates electronic mortgage origination networks in the United States. The Company's network and technology-enabled solutions help streamline and automate the mortgage origination process. Solutions offered by Ellie include Encompass software, a comprehensive operating system that handles key business and management functions involved in running a mortgage origination business, and serves as a gateway to the Ellie Mae Network. Through its solutions the Company also offers services like: automated preparation of the disclosure and closing documents; electronic document management and websites and electronic connectivity. Ellie Mae, Inc. is headquartered in Pleasanton, California.


The status of Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.

Barchart technical indicators:

  • 88% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 19 new highs and up 19.99% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 21.37%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 31.47%
  • Recently traded at 32.30 with a 50 day moving average of 27.51
Fundamental factors:
  • Market Cap $901.82 million
  • P/E 81.67
  • Revenue expected to grow 17.40% this year and another 22.10% next year
  • Earnings are estimated to increase 31.60% next year and continue to increase at an annual rate of 22.23% for the next 5 years
  • Wall Street analysts issued 1 strong buy, 3 buy and 5 hold recommendations on the stock
As the housing market returns to normal this might be a good long term stock.  I'd still exit at the 100 day moving average

BARCHART MORNING CALL 7/3

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
September E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 +0.09%) this morning are up +0.09% and European stocks are up +0.63% on optimism that today's U.S. Jun payrolls report will show employers added more than 200,000 jobs for a fifth month. The markets will also eagerly interpret comments from ECB President Draghi following today's ECB monetary policy meeting. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan -0.14%, Hong Kong -0.08%, China +0.43%, Taiwan +0.44%, Australia +0.66%, Singapore +0.28%, South Korea -0.35%, India -0.07%. China's Shanghai Stock Index climbed to a 2-week high on signs the Chinese economy is growing after a gauge of manufacturing and service industry activity expanded at the fastest pace in 1-1/4 years. Commodity prices are mixed. Aug crude oil (CLQ14 -0.68%) is down -0.58% at a 3-week low on signs of increased supplies after Libya said it was opening the Es Sider and Ras Lanuf oil export facilities after reaching an agreement with rebels who had blockaded the ports for the past year. Aug gasoline (RBQ14 -0.29%) is down -0.36%. Aug gold (GCQ14 -0.83%) is down -0.66%. Sep copper (HGU14 -0.41%) is down -0.43%. Agriculture and livestock prices are higher with Aug live cattle prices up +1.43% at an all-time high. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.11%) is up +0.11%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.06% on speculation ECB President Draghi will jawbone EUR/USD lower when he speaks later today. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.11% at a 1-week high. Sep T-note prices (ZNU14 unch) are little changed, up +0.5 of a tick.
Eurozone May retail sales were unch m/m and +0.7% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.3% m/m and +1.8% y/y. Apr retail sales were revised down to -0.2% m/m and +1.8% y/y from the originally reported +0.4% m/m and +2.4% y/y.
The German Jun Markit services PMI was revised downward to 54.6 from the originally reported 54.8.
The UK Jun Markit/CIPS services PMI fell -0.9 to 57.7, a bigger drop than expectations of -0.3 to 58.3
The China Jun HSBC composite PMI rose +2.2 to 52.4, the fastest pace expansion in 1-1/4 years.
The China Jun non-manufacturing PMI fell -0.5 to 55.0.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
The market is expecting today’s June payroll report to show a +215,000 increase, close to the +217,000 increase seen in May. The market is expecting today’s June unemployment rate to remain unchanged from the 5-3/4 year low of 6.3% posted in April and May. Today’s weekly initial unemployment claims report is expected to show a small increase of +1,000 to 313,000 following last week’s -2,000 decline to 312,000. Meanwhile, continuing claims are expected to show a decline of -11,000 to 2.560 million, reversing most of last week’s +12,000 increase to 2.571 million. Today’s May U.S. trade deficit report is expected to narrow mildly to -$45.0 billion from -$47.2 billion in April. Today’s June ISM non-manufacturing index is expected to be unchanged at 56.3, stalling after May’s +1.1 point increase to 56.3. There are no Russell 1000 companis that report earnings today. There are no equity conferences this week.








OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Stifel raised its price target for Constellation Brands (STZ +2.34%) to $113 from $90 following the company's Q1 results and keeps a 'Buy' rating on the stock.
International Speedway (ISCA +1.02%) reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 50 cents, better than consensus of 49 cents.
Cree (CREE -0.08%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Perform' at Oppenheimer.
Comerica (CMA -0.42%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Citigroup.
Athlon Energy (ATHL -1.47%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at UBS.
Altai Capital lowered its stake in RealD (RLD -0.85%) to 5.7% from 9.8%.
Billionare activist investor Carl Icahn reported a 9.39% stake in Family Dollar (FDO +1.29%) .
East Rock Capital reported a 15% passive stake in Bay Bank (BYBK +1.57%) .
SYNNEX (SNX +0.18%) reported Q2 EPS of $1.52, well ahead of consensus of $1.36.
MARKET COMMENTS
Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 +0.09%) this morning are up +1.75 points (+0.09%). The S&P 500 index on Wednesday closed higher but remained below Tuesday’s record high. Signs of strength in the U.S. labor market boosted stocks after Jun ADP employment rose +281,000, stronger than expectations of +205,000 and the largest increase in 1-1/2 years. Gains were muted after (1) U.S. May factory orders fell -0.5%, a bigger decline than expectations of -0.3%, and (2) airline stocks tumbled when Delta Air Lines said that excess capacity in some international markets forced air fares down more than expected. Closes: S&P 500 +0.07%, Dow Jones +0.12%, Nasdaq +0.13%.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU14 unch) this morning are up +0.5 of a tick. Sep 10-year T-note futures prices on Wednesday fell to a 1-week low and closed lower on signs the economy is strengthening after the Jun ADP employment change rose by the most in 1-1/2 years. Losses in T-notes were contained after May factory orders fell more than expected. Closes: TYU4 -15.50, FVU4 -9.25.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.11%) this morning is up +0.089 (+0.11%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0008 (-0.06%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.11 (+0.11%) at a 1-week high. The dollar index on Wednesday closed higher on signs the U.S. economy may be gaining traction after Jun ADP employment rose by the most in 1-1/2 years. EUR/USD closed lower on speculation ECB President Draghi may attempt to jawbone EUR/USD lower following Thursday’s ECB meeting as EUR/USD is higher now than when the ECB expanded stimulus measures following last month’s policy meeting. Closes: Dollar index +0.141 (+0.18%), EUR/USD -0.0020 (-0.15%). USD/JPY +0.253 (+0.25%).
Aug WTI crude oil (CLQ14 -0.68%) this morning is down -61 cents (-0.58%) at a 3-week low. Aug gasoline (RBQ14 -0.29%) is down -0.0109 (-0.36%). Aug crude and gasoline prices on Wednesday fell to 2-week lows and closed lower on speculation Tropical Storm Arthur will curb fuel demand on the U.S. East coast over the Fourth of July holiday. Prices recovered from their worst levels on bullish factors that included (1) the -1.359 million bbl drop in crude supplies at Cushing, OK, the delivery point for WTI futures, to a 5-1/4 year low, and (2) the unexpected -1.24 million bbl drop in weekly EIA gasoline inventories vs expectations for a +550,000 bbl build. Closes: CLQ4 -0.86 (-0.82%) RBQ4 -0.0154 (-0.51%).
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR07/03/2014
US0830 ETWeekly initial unemployment claims expected +1,000 to 313,000, previous -2,000 to 312,000. Weekly continuing claims expected -11,000 to 2.560 million, previous +12,000 to 2.571 million.
0830 ETMay trade balance expected -$45.0 billion, Apr -$47.2 billion.
0830 ETJun non-farm payrolls expected +215,000, May +217,000. Jun private payrolls expected +213,000, May 216,000. Jun manufacturing payrolls expected +10,000, May +10,000. Jun unemployment rate expected unch at 6.3%.
0830 ETJun avg hourly earnings expected +0.2% m/m and +1.9% y/y, May +0.2% m/m and +2.1% y/y. Jun avg weekly hours expected unch at 34.5 hours.
0830 ETUSDA weekly Export Sales.
0945 ETJun Markit services PMI expected -0.2 to 61.0, May +3.1 to 61.2. Jun Markit composite PMI, May +2.7 to 61.1.
1000 ETJun ISM non-manufacturing index expected unch at 56.3, May +1.1 to 56.3.
1100 ETTreasury announces amount of 3-year T-notes (previous $28 billion), 10-year T-notes (previous $21 billion) and 30-year T-bonds (previous $13 billion) to be auctioned Jul 8-10.
1300 ETNYSE closes early before the July 4 holiday.
GER0355 ETRevised German Jun Markit/BME services PMI, previous 54.2.
EUR0400 ETRevised Eurozone Jun Markit composite PMI, previous 52.8.
0500 ETEurozone May retail sales expected +0.3% m/m and +1.8% y/y, Apr +0.4% m/m and +2.4% y/y.
0745 ETECB announces interest rate decision.
0830 ETECB President Mario Draghi holds press conference following ECB meeting.
UK0430 ETUK Jun Markit/CIPS services PMI expected -0.3 to 58.3, May 58.6.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR07/03/2014
Company NameTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Rite Aid CorpRAD USJune Sales and Revenue Call
Walgreen CoWAG USJune 2014 Sales and Revenue Release2014

Wednesday, July 2, 2014

GlobalStar - Barchart's Chart of the Day

GlobalStar (GSAT) is the Barchart Chart of the Day. The international voice and data services stock returns again and has a Trend Spotter buy signal, a Weight Alpha of 469.99+ and gained 642.37% in the last year.

The Chart of the Day belongs to GlobalStar (GSAT).  I fond the stock by sorting the New High list for new high frequency in the last month then used the Flipchart feature to review the charts.  Since the Trend Spotter signaled another buy on 4/22 the stock has gained 59.27%.

GSAT offers satellite voice and data services to commercial and recreational users in more than 120 countries around the world. GSAT's products include mobile and fixed satellite telephones, simplex and duplex satellite data modems and flexible service packages. Many land based and maritime industries benefit from GSAT with increased productivity from remote areas beyond cellular and landline service. Global customer segments include: oil and gas, government, mining, forestry, commercial fishing, utilities, military, transportation, heavy construction, emergency preparedness, and business continuity as well as individual recreational users. GSAT's data solutions are ideal for various asset and personal tracking, data monitoring and SCADA applications.


The status of Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.

Barchart technical indicators:

  • 96% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 10 new highs and up 23.43% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 71.81%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 4,06
  • Recently traded at 4.38 with a 50 day moving average of 3.48
Fundamental factors:
  • Market Cap $2.82 billion
  • Revenue expected to grow 8.50% this year and another 20.10% next year
  • Earnings are estimated to increase 63.20% next year and continue to compound at an annual rate of 15.00% for the next 5 years
  • The Wall Street analyst recommending the stock has published a buy signal 
This stock was a Chart of the Day back in May and continues to rise. Watch that 100 day moving average for an exit point.

5 Small Caps on the Move

Today I used Barchart to sort the S&P 600 Small Cap Index stocks to find the ones with the best momentum and charts.  I fist sorted for new high frequency in the last month, then used the Flipchart feature to review the charts.

Today's list includes Netscout Systems (NTCT), First Cash Financial Services (FCFS),     Electronics For Imaging (EFII), Monotype Imaging (TYPE) and Analogic (ALOG):

Netscout Systems (NTCT)


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 100% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 16 new highs and up 15.36% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 76.40%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 43.81
  • Recently traded at 45.03 with a 50 day moving average of 39.90


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 96% Barcaft technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 14 new highs and up 11.54% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 78.42%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 57.09
  • Recently traded t 58.28 with a 50 day moving average of 52.56


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 88% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 14 new highs and up 13.52% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 84.31%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 44.76
  • Recently traded at 46.31 with a 50 day moving average of 40.28


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 80% Barchart short term buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 14 new highs and up 12.74% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 71.20%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 27.80
  • Recently traded at 29.02 with a 50 day moving average of 26.67
Analogic (ALOG)


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 80% Barchart short term buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 14 new highs and up 1532% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 66.75%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 77.04
  • Recently traded at 78.49 with a 50 day moving average f 74.59











/BARCHART MORNING CALL

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
September E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 +0.09%) this morning are up +0.03% and European stocks are up +0.02% amid growing confidence in the global economic recovery. Asian stocks closed higher with Japan's Nikkei Stock Index at a 5-1/4 month high and China's Shanghai Stock Index at a 2-week high on carry-over support from Tuesday's rally in the S&P 500 to an all-time high: Japan +0.29%, Hong Kong +1.55%, China +0.29%, Taiwan +0.46%, Australia +1.48%, Singapore +0.66%, South Korea +0.89%, India +1.27%. Commodity prices are mixed. Aug crude oil (CLQ14 -0.23%) is down -0.32%. Aug gasoline (RBQ14 -0.29%) is down -0.41% at a 2-week low on speculation that Tropical Storm Arthur will curb gasoline demand on the U.S. East coast over the Fourth of July holiday. Aug gold (GCQ14 +0.09%) is up +0.12%. Sep copper (HGU14 +0.03%) is up +0.03%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.05%) is up +0.04%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.11%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.07%. GBP/USD is up +0.07% at a 5-1/2 year high on speculation the BOE may soon start raising interest rates after UK house prices rose more than expected last month and after UK construction growth accelerated in Jun. Sep T-note prices (ZNU14 +0.03%) are up +1 tick.
The Eurozone May PPI unexpectedly fell -0.1% m/m, weaker than expectations of unch m/m and the fifth consecutive month of declines. On an annual basis, May PPI fell -1.0% y/y, right on expectations and the tenth straight month prices have fallen year-over-year.
The UK Jun Markit/CIPS construction PMI unexpectedly rose +2.6 to 62.6, higher than expectations of -0.2 to 59.8 and the fastest pace of expansion in 5 months.
UK Jun nationwide house prices rose +1.0% m/m and +11.8% y/y, higher than expectations of +0.5% m/m and +11.2% y/y with the +11.8% y/y gain the largest annual increase in 9-1/3 years.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today’s June ADP employment report is expected to show a solid rise of +205,000, strengthening from May’s report of +179,000. Today’s May factory orders report is expected to show a decline of -0.3% following the April increase of +0.7%. There is one Russell 1000 company that reports earnings today: Constellation Brands (consensus $0.93). There are no equity conferences this week.








OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Oracle (ORCL +0.59%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Neutral' at Atlantic Equities.
Credit Suisse downgraded Hormel Foods (HRL -0.32%) to 'Neutral' from 'Outperform' citing valuation.
Men's Wearhouse (MW +0.99%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Stifel.
Beazer Homes (BZH +1.10%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Sterne Agee.
Greenbrier (GBX +0.19%) reported Q3 EPS of $1.03, well above consensus of 74 cents, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2014 EPS ex-items to $2.98-$3.08, above consensus of $2.61.
Barclays downgraded the U.S. Major Pharmaceuticals sector to 'Neutral' from 'Positive' citing valuations.
Bristol-Myers (BMY -0.80%) was downgraded to 'Equal Weight' from 'Overweight' at Barclays.
Harley-Davidson (HOG +0.69%) fell 1% in pre-market trading after Ramond James lowered its recommendation on the stock to 'Market Perform' from 'Strong Buy.'
Bank of America (BAC +1.50%) rose 1% in pre-market trading after Deutsche Bank upgraded its recommendation on the stock to 'Buy' from 'Hold.'
Luxor Capital reported a 9.9% stake in RCS Capital (RCAP +4.57%) .
Pandora (P +0.34%) slipped over 1% in after-hours traqding after Google acquireed music streaming service Songza.
CBOE Holdings (CBOE -0.47%) reported June trading volume totaled 100.18 million contracts with average daily volume of 4.77 million contracts, up +3% m/m but down -11% y/y.
Aisling Capital reported a 5.5% passive stake in Lombard Medical (EVAR -0.97%) .
Berkshire Hathaway lowered its stake in Graham Holdings (GHC +0.58%) to 1.72% from 27.7%.
A. Schulman (SHLM +2.14%) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 74 cents, better than consensus of 66 cents, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2014 adjusted EPS view to $2.31-$2.36, higher than consensus of $2.27.
Paychex (PAYX +1.37%) reported Q4 EPS of 40 cents, right on consensus, although Q4 revenue of $617.2 million was slightly below consensus of $617.35 million.
MARKET COMMENTS
Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 +0.09%) this morning are up +0.50 of a point (+0.03%). The S&P 500 index on Tuesday climbed to new record high and closed higher. Bullish factors included (1) optimism the global economic recovery will continue after the China Jun manufacturing PMI rose +0.2 to 51.0, the fastest pace of expansion in 6 months, and (2) the +2.0 point increase in the new orders sub-index of the Jun ISM manufacturing index to a 6-month high of 58.9, a sign that future manufacturing activity will continue to expand. Closes: S&P 500 +0.67%, Dow Jones +0.77%, Nasdaq +1.17%.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU14 +0.03%) this morning are up +1 tick. Sep 10-year T-note futures prices on Tuesday closed lower. Bearish factors included (1) reduced safe-haven demand for T-notes after the S&P 500 rallied to a new record high, and (2) the increase in the China Jun manufacturing PMI to a 6-month high, which supported confidence in the global economic outlook and may allow the Fed to start raising interest rates sooner than expected. Closes: TYU4 -9.50, FVU4 -5.00.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.05%) this morning is up +0.035 (+0.04%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0015 (-0.11%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.07 (-0.07%). The dollar index on Tuesday recovered from a 1-1/2 month low and closed higher. Bullish factors included (1) weakness in EUR/USD which fell back from a 5-week high after the Eurozone Jun Markit manufacturing PMI was revised down to a 7-month low, and (2) weakness in the yen after the Japan Q2 Tankan business conditions fell more than expected, which fueled speculation the BOJ will ease monetary policy further. Closes: Dollar index +0.040 (+0.05%), EUR/USD -0.00129 (-0.09%). USD/JPY +0.199 (+0.20%).
Aug WTI crude oil (CLQ14 -0.23%) this morning is down -34 cents (-0.32%). Aug gasoline (RBQ14 -0.29%) is down -0.0123 (-0.41%) at a new 2-week low. Aug crude and gasoline prices on Tuesday closed lower with Aug gasoline at a 2-week low. Bearish factors included (1) a stronger dollar, and (2) reduced concern that sectarian violence in Iraq will spread to the southern part of the country where three-quarters of the country’s oil production is located. Losses were limited on expectations that Wednesday’s weekly EIA inventory data will show crude supplies fell -2.4 million bbl. Closes: CLQ4 -0.03 (-0.03%) RBQ4 -0.0080 (-0.26%).
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR07/02/2014
US0700 ETWeekly MBA mortgage applications, previous -1.0% with purchase sub-index -1.2% and refi sub-index -0.9%.
0730 ETJun Challenger job cuts, May +45.5% y/y.
0815 ETJun ADP employment change expected +205,000, May +179,000.
0945 ETJun ISM New York, May 55.3.
1000 ETMay factory orders expected -0.3%, Apr +0.7%.
1100 ETFed Chair Janet Yellen delivers a lecture at the IMF in Washington D.C.
1030 ETEIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
UK0200 ETUK Jun nationwide house prices expected +0.5% m/m and +11.2% y/y, May +0.7% m/m and +11.1% y/y.
0430 ETUK Jun Markit/CIPS construction PMI expected -0.2 to 59.8, May 60.0.
EUR0500 ETEurozone May PPI expected unch m/m and -1.0% y/y, Apr -0.1% m/m and -1.2% y/y.
CHI2100 ETChina Jun non-manufacturing PMI, May +0.7 to 55.5.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR07/02/2014
Company NameTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Constellation Brands IncSTZ USBef-mktQ1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20150.927
General Motors CoGM US9:45General Motors Switch-Defect Bankruptcy Court Hearing
Paychex IncPAYX US10:30Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Constellation Brands IncSTZ US10:30Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015
AutoNation IncAN USJune 2014 Sales and Revenue Release2014

Tuesday, July 1, 2014

Vanguard Natural Resources - Barchart's Chart of the Day

Vanguard Natural Resources (VNR) is the Barchart Chart of the Day.  The independent oil and gas stock has a Trend Spotter buy signal, a Weighted Alpha of 24.70+ and gained 14.75% in the last year while paying a 7.88% dividend.

The Chart of the Day belongs to Vanguard Natural Resources (VNR).  I found the stock buy using Barchart to sort today's New High list for new high frequency in the last month, ten used the Flipchart feature to review the charts.  Since the Trend Spotter signaled a buy on 5/27 the stock is up 4.12%.


The status of Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.

Barchart technical indicators:

  • 96% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 18 new highs and up 4.49% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 76.62%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 31.81
  • Recently traded at 32.11 with a 50 day moving average of 30.89
Fundamental factors:
  • Market Cap $2.55 billion
  • P/E 31.64
  • Dividend yield 7.88%
  • Revenue predicted to increase by 39.10% this year and another 13.70% next year
  • Earnings estimated to increase 4530% this year , an additional 15.90% next year and continue to increase annually by 5.27% for the next 5 years
  • Wall Street analysts issued 4 strong buy, 6 buy and 6 hold recommendations on the stock
Energy stock rise and fall quickly so watch the 100 day moving average closely.

BARCHART MORNING CALL 7/1

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
September E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 +0.22%) this morning are up +0.20% and European stocks are up +0.63%% after Chinese manufacturing activity expanded last month at the fastest pace in 6 months, which may help sustain global economic growth. The Russian Micex Stock Index and the ruble fell after Ukraine refused to extend the cease-fire as Ukrainian President Poroshenko vowed to retake the country's eastern most regions taken over by pro-Russian rebels. Gains in European stocks were tempered after a gauge of Eurozone manufacturing activity was revised down to the slowest pace in 7 months. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +1.08%, Hong Kong closed for holiday, China -0.03%, Taiwan +0.52%, Australia -0.37%, Singapore -0.40%, South Korea -0.31%, India +0.40%. Commodity prices are mixed. Aug crude oil (CLQ14 +0.30%) is up +0.34%. Aug gasoline (RBQ14 +0.13%) is up +0.05%. Aug gold (GCQ14 +0.36%) is up +0.33% at a 3-1/4 month high on increased safe-haven demand after the truce in Ukraine ended and fighting between government forces and separatists intensified. Sep copper (HGU14 -0.25%) is down -0.14%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mixed with grain prices lower on negative carry-over from Monday's bearish USDA planting intentions report. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.06%) is up +0.07%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.01%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.22%. GBP/USD jumped +0.20% to a 5-1/2 year high after UK manufacturing growth unexpectedly accelerated last month to the fastest pace in 7 months. Sep T-note prices (ZNU14 -0.21%) are down -8 ticks.
The China Jun manufacturing PMI rose +0.2 to 51.0, right on expectations and the fastest pace of expansion in 6 months.
The Japan Q2 Tankan large manufacturing business conditions fell to 12 from 17 in Q1, weaker than expectations of a decline to 15. The Q2 Tankan large non-manufacturing business conditions fell to 19 from 24 in Q1, right on expectations.
German Jun unemployment unexpectedly rose for a second month as it climbed +9,000, worse than expectations of a -10,000 decline. The Jun unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.7%, right on expectations.
The German Jun Markit/BME manufacturing PMI was revised down to 52.0 from the originally reported 52.4, the slowest pace of expansion in 8 months.
The Eurozone Jun Markit manufacturing PMI was revised down to 51.8 from the originally reported 51.9, the slowest pace of expansion in 7 months.
The Eurozone May unemployment rate was unchanged from Apr that was revised lower to a 1-1/2 year low of 11.6% from 11.7%.
The UK Jun Markit PMI manufacturing unexpectedly rose +0.5 to 57.5, better than expectations of -0.2 to 56.8 and the fastest pace of expansion in 7 months.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today’s June ISM manufacturing index is expected to show a +0.4 point increase to 55.8, adding to May’s +0.5 point increase to 55.4. Today’s June total vehicle sales report is expected to fall back to 16.3 million units after posting a 7-1/3 year high of 16.70 million in May. There are two of the Russell 1000 companies report earnings today: Acuity Brands (consensus $1.12), Paychex (0.40). There are no equity conferences this week.








OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Goldman Sachs upgraded Netflix (NFLX -0.33%) to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' and raised their price target on the stock to $590 from $380.
BofA/Merrill lowered Goldman Sach's (GS +0.40%) Q2 EPS estimate to $3.00 from $3.44, vs. consensus of $3.16 and Morgan Stanley's (MS +2.47%) Q2 EPS estimate to 54 cents from 63 cents, vs. consensus of 58 cents to reflect lower trading revenues and mixed capital markets activity.
FBR Capital reiterated its 'Outperform' rating on Hanesbrands (HBI +0.19%) and raised their price target on the stock to $111 following the company's acquisition of DBApparel.
Urban Outfitters (URBN +0.36%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Outperform' at Wedbush.
Symantec (SYMC +0.57%) was downgraded to 'Market Perform' from 'Outperform' at BMO Capital.
Martin Marietta (MLM -0.14%) will replace U.S. Steel (X +0.08%) in the S&P 500 as of the close of trading today.
Boeing (BA -1.02%) was awarded a $1.94 billion fixed-price-incentive-fee government contract for the full rate production of 11 Lot 38 F/A-18E aircraft for the U.S. Navy and 33 EA-18G aircraft for the U.S. Navy and the government of Australia.
Northrop Grumman (NOC -0.86%) was awarded a $3.64 billion government contract modification for the procurement of 25 full rate production E-2D Advanced Hawkeye aircraft.
Bloomberg reports that BNP Paribas (BNPQY +0.40%) agreed to plead guilty to processing transactions involving Sudan, Iran and Cuba and will pay $8.8 billion in fines.
Expedia (EXPE -0.24%) was initiated with an 'Outperform' at Oppenheimer with a price target of $90.
Goldman Sachs (GS +0.40%) was downgraded to 'Market Perform' from 'Outperform' at Bernstein.
Priceline (PCLN -0.20%) was initiated with an 'Outperform' at Oppenheimer with a price target of $1450.
TECO Energy (TE +0.76%) filed to sell 15.5 million shares of common stock.
MARKET COMMENTS
Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 +0.22%) this morning are up +4.00 points (+0.20%). The S&P 500 index on Monday closed little changed. A bullish factor for the S&P 500 was a rally in homebuilding stocks after U.S. May pending home sales rose +6.1% m/m, much stronger than market expectations of +1.5% m/m and the largest monthly increase in 4 years. Bearish factors included (1) the -2.9 point decline in the Jun Chicago PMI to 62.6, a larger decline than expectations of -2.5 to 63.0, and (2) the prediction from UBS that with the end of the quarter on Monday, fund managers may sell up to $20 billion in stocks as fund manages sell equities and buy bonds to rebalance their portfolios. Closes: S&P 500 -0.04%, Dow Jones -0.15%, Nasdaq +0.13%.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU14 -0.21%) this morning are down -8 ticks. Sep 10-year T-note futures prices on Monday closed little changed. A bullish factor for T-notes was the larger-than-expected decline in the Jun Chicago PMI. Limiting strength was the larger-than-expected +6.1% m/m increase in May pending home sales, the biggest jump in 4 years. Closes: TYU4 +2.50, FVU4 +2.25.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.06%) this morning is up +0.055 (+0.07%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0001 (-0.01%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.22 (+0.22%). The dollar index on Monday fell to a 1-1/2 month low and closed lower. Bearish factors included (1) strength in EUR/USD which climbed to a 5-week high after Eurozone Jun core CPI rose more than expected, which reduces the chances of further ECB monetary stimulus, and (2) strength in the yen as USD/JPY fell to a 5-week low amid speculation the BOJ will refrain from boosting monetary stimulus after Friday’s Japanese inflation data rose and Japan’s unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to the lowest in over 16 yrs. Closes: Dollar index -0.264 (-0.33%), EUR/USD +0.0045 (+0.33%). USD/JPY -0.054 (-0.05%).
Aug WTI crude oil (CLQ14 +0.30%) this morning is up +36 cents (+0.34%). Aug gasoline (RBQ14 +0.13%) is up +0.0015 (+0.05%). Aug crude and gasoline prices on Monday closed lower with Aug crude at a 2-week low and Aug gasoline at a 1-1/2 week low. Bearish factors included (1) increased OPEC output as Bloomberg data showed that OPEC Jun crude production rose +278,000 bpd to 30.223 million bpd, a 4-month high, and (2) reduced concern that sectarian violence in Iraq will spread to the southern part of the country where three-quarters of the country’s oil production is located. Closes: CLQ4 -0.37 (-0.35%) RBQ4 -0.0309 (-1.01%).
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR07/01/2014
US0945 ETRevised Jun Markit manufacturing PMI expected unch at 57.5, prelim-Jun +1.1 to 57.5.
1000 ETJun ISM manufacturing index expected +0.5 to 55.9, May +0.5 to 55.4. Jun ISM employment, May -1.9 to 52.8. Jun ISM new orders, May +1.8 to 56.9. Jun ISM prices paid expected unch at 60.0, May +3.5 to 60.0.
1000 ETMay construction spending expected +0.5% m/m, Apr +0.2% m/m.
n/aJun total vehicle sales expected 16.38 million, May 16.70 million. Jun domestic vehicle sales expected 13.00 million, May 13.11 million.
JPN0100 ETJapan Jun vehicle sales, May -5.6% y/y.
GER0355 ETGerman Jun unemployment change expected -10,000, May +24,000. Jun unemployment rate expected unch at 6.7%.
0355 ETRevised German Jun Markit/BME manufacturing PMI, previous 52.4.
EUR0400 ETRevised Eurozone Jun Markit manufacturing PMI, previous 51.9.
0500 ETEurozone May unemployment rate expected unch at 11.7%.
UK0430 ETUK Jun Markit PMI manufacturing expected -0.5 to 56.5, May 57.0.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR07/01/2014
Company NameTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Acuity Brands IncAYI USBef-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20141.124
Ford Motor CoF US9:30June 2014 Sales and Revenue Release2014
Hormel Foods CorpHRL US9:30Acquisition of CytoSport Holdings, Inc by Hormel Foods Corporation Call
Ford Motor CoF US10:00June 2014 Sales and Revenue Call2014
Acuity Brands IncAYI US10:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Paychex IncPAYX USAft-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.395
Marvell Technology Group LtdMRVL US19:00Annual General MeetingY 2014

Monday, June 30, 2014

VOC Energy Trust - Barchart's Chart of the Day

VOC Energy Trust (VOC) is the Barchart Chart of the Day.  The oil & gas income trust has a Trend Spotter buy signal, a Weighted Alpha of 22.22+ and gained 20.55% in the last year.  All this while paying a 12.39% dividend.

The Chart of the Day belongs to VOC Energy Trust (VOC).  I found the stock by sorting the New High List for new high frequency in the last month then used the Flipchart feature to review the charts.  Since the Trend Spotter signaled a buy on 5/2  the stock gained 12.39%.

VOC Energy Trust (VOC) is a Delaware statutory trust having interest in the oil and natural gas properties in the states of Kansas and Texas held by VOC Sponsor. VOC Energy Trust is based in Austin, Texas.




The status of Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.

Barchart technical indicators:

  • 100% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 18 new  highs and up 11.00% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 86.83%
  • Barchart computes  a technical support level at 16.28
  • Recently traded at 16.95 with a 50 day moving average of 15.23
Fundamental factors:
  • Market Cap $288.15 million
  • Dividend yield 12.58%
  • Revenue expected to decrease 8.90% this year and another 14.80% next year
  • Although earnings are estimated to increase by 8.30% this year they are estimated to decrease by 17.00% next year and continue to decrease at an annual rate of 8.70% over the next 5 years
  • Wall Street analysts issued 3 hold recommendations on the stock
This is an unusual security and should be analyzed only on its cash flow to stockholders