Educational and Instructional Stock Market Investing Newsletter for the hands-on investor. I use my 40+ years of experience in Accounting, Law and Financial Services To show you how to find stocks that will not only beat the market but consistently beat Warren Buffett, his Berkshire Hathaway fund and most of the Morningstar 5 Star mutual funds.
Craft Brewers Alliance (BREW) is the Chart of the Day. Craft beers are in vogue and so is this stock which is up more than 77% in the past year. The beer is good too.
Article:
The Chart of the Day is Craft Brewers Alliance (BREW). The stock is up 77.02% in the past year and has a Relative Strength Index of 84.95%, The stock was right at the top of the New High List with 19 new highs in the last 20 sessions.
The company is engaged in the business of brewing, marketing and selling of craft beers in the United States. It operates in two segments: Beer Related operations and Pubs and Other. Craft Brew owns and operates production breweries with adjacent restaurants or pubs in Portland, Oregon, Woodinville, Washington and Portsmouth, New Hampshire and in Kona, Hawaii. It offers its beer products under the Widmer Brothers, Redhook and Kona Brewing brand names.
Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.
Barchart technical indicators:
100% Barchart technical buy signals
Trend spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
19 new highs and up 33.20% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 84.95%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 9.50
Recently traded at 9.95 with a 50 day moving average of 7.94
Fundamental factors:
Market Cap $187.96 million
P/E 457.50
Revenue projected to grow 9.20% this year and another 9.30% next year
Earnings estimated to increase by 15.40% this year, 80.00% next year and continue to increase by 20.00% annually for the next 5 years
2 Wall Street analysts and Piper Jaffray have issued strong buy recommendations
Financial Strength B
This stock looks great - both beer and pubs. As always watch the moving averages to decide when to get out.
Affymetrix (AFFX) is the Chart of the Day. The molecular biology technology company has had ups and downs but is still up over 63% year to date.
Article:
The Chart of the Day is Affymetrix (AFFX). I found the stock by sorting the New High List for frequency and this stock was near the top. The stock hit 18 new highs and gained 44.17% in the last month and continues to climb.
The company's scientists invented the world's first high-density microarray and began selling the first commercial microarray. Since then, their GeneChip technology has become the industry standard in molecular biology research. The firm's technology is used by the world's top pharmaceutical, diagnostic and biotechnology companies as well as leading academic, government and not-for-profit research institutes. Their patented photolithographic manufacturing process provides the most information capacity available today on an array, enabling researchers to use a whole-genome approach to analyzing the relationship between genetics and health.
Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.
Barchart technical indicators:
88% Barchart technical buy signals
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
18 new highs and up 44.17% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 80.51%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 4.41
Recently traded at 5.91 with a 50 day moving average of 3.90
Fundamental factors:
Market Cap $368.75 million
Revenue projected to grow 7.80% this year and 2.20% next year
Earnings estimated to increase by 100.00% this year and continue to increase by 33.00% annually for the next 5 years
Wall Street analysis issued 1 strong buy, 2 buy, 7 hold and 3 under perform recommendations for their clients
Financial Strength C+
This stock has gone up and down over the year as analysts and investors changed their minds. Watch the momentum closely and don't stay too long.
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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
September E-mini S&Ps (ESU13 +1.15%) this morning are up +0.97% at a 1-1/2 month high and European stocks are up +0.90%. Asian stocks closed higher: Japan +0.39%, Hong Kong +2.55%, China +4.61%, Taiwan +2.10%, Australia +1.31%, Singapore +1.91%, South Korea +3.24%, India +1.98%. Global stock and bond markets surged after Fed Chairman Bernanke, in a speech delivered after the U.S. markets had closed Wednesday, said that low inflation and high unemployment mean the Fed needs to continue with its stimulus measures. Commodity prices are mostly higher. Aug crude oil (CLQ13-0.54%) is down -0.64% as it fell back from a 15-month high. Aug gasoline (RBQ13-0.85%) is down -0.95%, Aug gold (GCQ13 +2.69%) is up +2.83% at a 2-week high, and Sep copper (HGU13 +3.09%) is up +3.02% at a 3-week high. Agricultural and livestock prices are mostly higher ahead of the USDA's monthly WASDE report later this morning. The dollar index (DXY00-1.26%) plunged -1.30% and is at a 2-week low after Fed Chairman Bernanke said that it's too early to taper QE3. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.65% at a 2-1/2 week high and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.43%. September T-note prices (ZNU13 +0.85%) are up sharply by 1-02/32 points after Fed Chairman Bernanke said he backed continued bond buying.
In its monthly bulletin for July, the ECB said that its statement last week that it is committed to keep rates low for an extended period of time uses a "flexible horizon" and will depend on the Eurozone's economic performance.
German Jun wholesale prices fell -0.4% m/m, the fourth consecutive monthly decline, and rose +0.7% y/y.
In a statement following its 2-day policy meeting, the BOJ raised its outlook on the Japanese economy for the seventh straight month when it said Japan's economy "is starting to recover moderately." That was the first time the BOJ has used the word "recovery" in its assessment of the Japanese economy since Jan 2011.
Japan May machine orders surged +10.5% m/m and +16.5% y/y, the biggest annual increase in 1-3/4 years. The report was stronger than expectations of +1.9% m/m and +3.3% y/y.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
The Treasury today will sell $13 billion in 10-year T-bonds, concluding this week's $66 billion package of 3-year, 10-year and 30-year securities. Today’s weekly initial unemployment claims report is expected to show a small decline of -3,000 to 340,000, adding to last week’s decline of -5,000 to 343,000. Meanwhile, today’s continuing claims report is expected to show an increase of +22,000 to 2.955 million, reversing about one-half of last week’s decline of -54,000 to 2.933 million. There are two of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: Progressive Corp (consensus $0.41), and Commerce Bancshares (0.71).
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Viacom (VIAB +1.55%) was upgraded to "Market Perform" from "Underperform" at Bernstein.
Family Dollar (FDO +7.11%) was downgraded to "Equal Weight" from "Overweight" at Barclays.
The NY Post reported that Verizon Wireless, a joint venture between Verizon (VZ-0.82%) and Vodafone (VOD-0.10%) , could end up owing Apple (AAPL-0.38%) as much as $14 billion in purchase commitments if the mobile carrier fails to sell an agreed number of iPhones.
Wynn Resorts (WYNN +0.54%) was downgraded to "Underweight" from "Equal Weight" at Morgan Stanley.
Hess Corp. (HES +0.23%) was upgraded to "Overweight" from "Neutral" at JPMorgan.
New York Times (NYT-1.11%) was downgraded to "Equal Weight" from "Overweight" at Barclays.
Analog Devices (ADI +1.02%) was upgraded to "Buy" from "Hold" at Jefferies.
KB Home (KBH-2.81%) was upgraded to "Buy" from "Fair Value" at CRT Capital.
Diamond Offshore (DO-0.04%) was upgraded to "Market Perform" from "Underperform" at BMO Capital.
Transocean (RIG-0.35%) was downgraded to "Market Perform" from "Outperform" at BMO Capital.
Worldwide PC shipments dropped to 76 million units in Q2, a 10.9% decrease from the same period last year, according to preliminary results by Gartner. This marks the fifth consecutive quarter of declining shipments, which is the longest duration of decline in the PC market’s history.
Fed Chairman Bernanke who was speaking at an event late Wednesday in Cambridge, MA. said "inflation, jobs indicate accomodative policy needed" and that "a rate increase won't be automatic when jobless rate hits the Fed's target."
Yum! Brands (YUM-0.88%) reported Q2 EPS ex-items of 56 cents, better than consensus of 54 cents, although it said its June same-store-sales for its China division were down approx 10%.
PriceSmart (PSMT-1.80%) fell nearly 4% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 EPS of 61 cents, weaker than consensus of 64 cents.
Walgreens (WAG +3.01%) increased its quarterly dividend from 27.5 cents to 31.5 cents per share.
MARKET COMMENTS
Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU13 +1.15%) this morning are up sharply by +16.00 points (+0.97%) after Fed Chairman Bernanke said he backs sustained stimulus. The U.S. stock market on Wednesday opened lower on concerns about the Chinese economy after China Jun exports unexpectedly fell -3.1% y/y, the biggest decline in 3-1/2 years. However, prices moved higher after the Jun 18-19 FOMC meeting minutes showed many members wanted to see further progress in the labor market before they start to taper QE3. Closes: S&P 500 +0.02%, Dow Jones -0.06%, Nasdaq 100 +0.55%.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU13 +0.85%) this morning are up sharply by +1-02/32 points after Fed Chairman Bernanke said he favors continued bond buying. Sep 10-year T-note prices on Wednesday closed lower on (1) reduced safe-haven demand as stocks rallied, and (2) weak demand for the Treasury’s $21 billion 10-year T-note auction that had a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.57, weaker than the 12-auction average of 2.87. Closes: TYU3 -7.0, FVU3 -3.50.
The dollar index (DXY00-1.26%) this morning is down -1.089 (-1.30%) to a 2-week low on signs the Fed favors maintaining its dollar-negative asset purchases. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0084 (+0.65%) at a 2-1/2 week high. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.43 (-0.43%). The dollar index on Wednesday closed lower after the Jun 18-19 FOMC meeting minutes indicated Fed members wanted more evidence of economic strength before tapering QE3. EUR/USD rebounded after the ECB issued a statement saying that Tuesday’s comments from ECB Executive Board member Asmussen that interest rates will stay low for an extended period “beyond 12 months” was not intended to give guidance on rates for an exact period. Closes: Dollar index -0.539 (-0.64%), EUR/USD +0.01949 (+1.53%), USD/JPY -1.773 (-1.75%).
Aug WTI crude oil (CLQ13-0.54%) this morning is down -68 cents a barrel (-0.64%) and Aug gasoline (RBQ13-0.85%) is down -2.86 cents per gallon (-0.95%). Crude oil and gasoline prices on Wednesday rallied sharply with crude at a 14-month high and gasoline at a 3-month high. Bullish factors include (1) the -9.87 million bbl plunge in weekly EIA crude inventories, more than three times expectations of a -3.2 million bbl draw), (2) the -2.69 million bbl decline in inventories at Cushing, the delivery point of WTI futures, and (3) the fall in weekly EIA gasoline inventories (-2.634 million bbl vs. expectations of +1.0 million bbl). Crude oil prices ignored the +1.8% increase in U.S. crude production to a new 21-year high of 7.4 million bpd in the week ended July 5. Closes: CLQ3 +2.99 (+2.89%), RBQ3 +0.0889 (+3.04%).
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR07/11/2013
US
0830 ET
Weekly initial unemployment claims expected -3,000 to 340,000, previous -5,000 to 343,000. Weekly continuing claims expected +22,000 to 2.955 mln, previous -54,000 to 2.933 mln.
0830 ET
Jun import price index expected unch m/m and +0.4% y/y, May -0.6% m/m and -1.9% y/y.
0830 ET
USDA weekly Export Sales.
1100 ET
Treasury announces amount of 10-year TIPS to be auctioned July 18 (previous $13 billion).
1200 ET
July WASDE crop production report.
1300 ET
Treasury auctions $13 billion in 30-year T-bonds.
1400 ET
Jun monthly budget statement expected +$100.0 billion, May -$138.732 billion..
GER
0200 ET
German Jun wholesale price index, May -0.4% m/m and -0.1% y/y.
EUR
0400 ET
ECB publishes monthly economic report.
JPN
n/a
BOJ announces monetary policy decision after 2-day meeting.
Costar Group (CSGP) is the Chart of the Day. The commercial real estate data provider has risen over 68% in the past year and has a Trend Spotter buy signal.
Article:
The Chart of the Day is Costar Group (CSGP). The stock has both a Trend Spotter buy signal and 96% technical buy signals. In the last month the stock hit 17 new highs and is up 16.54% for that period. I found the stock near the top of the New High List when sorted for frequency.
They provide information services to the commercial real estate industry. Their wide array of digital service offerings includes a leasing marketplace, a selling marketplace, sales comparable information, decision support, contact management, tenant information, property marketing, and industry news. They have three assets that provide a unique foundation for this marketplace: comprehensive national databases; large research department; and large number of participating organizations.
Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.
Barchart technical indicators:
96% Barchart technical buy signals
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
17 new highs and up 16.54% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 78.25%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 133.29
Recently traded at 135.90 with a 50 day moving average of 118.19
Fundamental factors:
Market Cap $3.85 billion
P/E 123.70
Revenue projected to grow 23.30% this year and another 12.00% next year
Earnings estimated to increase 32.70% this year, an additional 27.90% next year and continue to increase annually by 20.00% for the next 5 years
Wall Street analysts issued 3 strong buy, 1 buy, 3 hold and 1 under perform recommendation to their clients
Financial Strength B+
The looks like a good stock to be in as the real estate outlook improves. Watch the moving averages and sell if the stock drops below its 50 day moving average.
Everything you need to know about the markets in one free daily newsletter.
You will also receive a free subscription to the Barchart family of newsletters.
OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
September E-mini S&Ps (ESU13-0.14%) this morning are down -0.17% and European stocks are down -0.62%. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan -0.39%, Hong Kong +1.07%, China +2.84%, Taiwan +0.51%, Australia +0.40%, Singapore +0.30%, South Korea -0.30%, India -0.75%. U.S. and European stocks were undercut after China's exports and imports unexpectedly contracted in Jun, although China's Shanghai Stock index closed higher on speculation the government will take measures to support economic growth. Italian and Spanish government bonds declined after Standard & Poor's late yesterday cut Italy's credit rating to BBB, two levels above junk, citing weak economic prospects. Commodity prices are mostly higher. Aug crude oil (CLQ13 +1.64%) is up +1.35% at a 14-month high after weekly API inventory data released late yesterday showed crude inventories tumbled -9.0 million bbl. Aug gasoline (RBQ13 +1.60%) is up +1.27% at a 3-month high, Aug gold (GCQ13 +0.76%) is up +0.49%, and Sep copper (HGU13 +0.41%) is up +0.07%. Agricultural and livestock prices are higher. The dollar index (DXY00-0.34%) is down -0.30%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.33% and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -1.10%. September T-note prices (ZNU13-0.01%) are down -1.5 ticks.
China's Jun trade balance widened to a +$27.12 billion surplus, the most in 5-months but slightly smaller than expectations of a +$27.80 billion, and wider than a revised +$20.42 billion surplus in May. Jun exports unexpectedly fell -3.1% y/y, weaker than expectations of a +3.7% increase and the biggest decline in 3-1/2 years. Jun imports unexpectedly fell for a second month by -0.7% y/y, mush weaker than expectations of +6.0% y/y.
The Japan Jun domestic CGPI rose +0.1% m/m and +1.2% y/y, close to expectations of unch m/m and +1.2% y/y.
Japan's May tertiary industry index rose +1.2% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.7% m/m.
Japan Jun consumer confidence fell -1.4 to 44.3, weaker than expectations of -0.1 to 45.6.
Revised German Jun CPI (EU harmonized) was unchanged at +0.1% m/m and +1.9% y/y, right on expectations.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
The Treasury today will sell $21 billion in 10-year T-notes, continuing this week's $66 billion package of 3-year, 10-year and 30-year securities. The markets will be watching today's June 18-19 FOMC meeting minutes for any hints of when the Fed may start tapering QE3. Fed Chairman Bernanke will deliver a speech this afternoon at 4:10 PM ET in Boston at the National Bureau of Economic Research on the topic of “The First 100 Years of the Federal Reserve: The Policy Record, Lessons Learned, and Prospects for the Future.” Four of the Russell 1000 companies report earnings today: Fastenal (consensus $0.41), Family Dollar Stores (1.03), MSC Industrial Direct (0.97), Yum Brands (0.54).
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Wells Fargo (WFC-0.30%) was downgraded to "Hold" from "Buy" at Sandler O'Neil.
Moody’s Investors Service raised its outlook of the U.K. banking system to stable from negative, citing improving profitability and lower impairments.
The WSJ reports that investors pulled $13.5 billion from mutual funds that invest in municipal bonds in June, according to Lipper FMI, a retreat that is making it harder for several cities, states and towns to raise money.
Famiy Dollar Stores (FDO-0.48%) reported Q3 EPS of $1.05, better than expectations of $1.03, and raised guidance on fiscal 2013 EPS to $3.77-$3.82, higher than consensus of $3.77.
Cummins (CMI +1.62%) raised its quarterly dividend 25% to 62.5 cents per share from 50 cents per share.
Fastenal (FAST +2.46%) reported Q2 EPS of 41 cents, right on expectations, but then boosted its dividend by 5 cents to 25 cents per share.
Amazon.com (AMZN +0.32%) was initiated with a "Buy" at Citigroup with a price target of $340.
eBay (EBAY +1.45%) was initiated with a "Buy" at Citigroup eith a price target of $65.
Google (GOOG +0.02%) was initiated with a "Buy" at Citigroup with a price target of $1100.
Helen of Troy (HELE +2.14%) gained over3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 EPS of 82 cents, well ahead of consensus of 71 cents, and raised its fiscal 2014 EPS view to $3.50-$3.60, better than consensus of $3.53.
MARKET COMMENTS
Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU13-0.14%) this morning are down -2.75 points (-0.17%). The U.S. stock market on Tuesday shook off the IMF’s cut to its global 2013 GDP estimate and moved higher on speculation the economy is strong enough to withstand any Fed QE3 tapering. Another bullish factor for stocks is optimism that stocks will beat their Q2 earnings estimates, which, according to Bloomberg estimates, have been sharply lowered to +1.8% earnings growth from expectations of +8.3% growth 6 months ago. Closes: S&P 500 +0.72%, Dow Jones +0.50%, Nasdaq 100 +0.61%.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU13-0.01%) this morning are down -1.5 ticks. Sep 10-year T-note prices on Tuesday closed higher after the IMF cut its 2013 global GDP forecast for a fifth consecutive time, which may prompt global central banks to delay cutting their stimulus measures. Closes: TYU3 +5.0, FVU3 +2.0.
The dollar index (DXY00-0.34%) this morning is down -0.257 (-0.30%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0042 (+0.33%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -1.11 (-1.10%). The dollar index on Tuesday rose to a 3-year high and closed higher. EUR/USD slumped to a 3-month low on dovish comments from ECB Executive Board member Asmussen who said ECB policymakers’ forward guidance, which is that interest rates will stay low for an extended period, “goes beyond 12 months.” Closes: Dollar index +0.424 (+0.50%), EUR/USD -0.00894 (-0.69%), USD/JPY +0.185 (+0.18%).
Aug WTI crude oil (CLQ13 +1.64%) this morning is up +$1.40 a barrel (+1.35%) at a fresh 14-month high and Aug gasoline (RBQ13 +1.60%) is up +3.73 cents per gallon (+1.27%) at a 3-month high. Crude oil and gasoline prices on Tuesday shook off the rally in the dollar index to 3-year high and closed higher. Crude was supported by the rally in the stock market and by expectations that Wednesday’s weekly EIA data will show crude inventories fell -3.1 million bbl to a 4-month low. Gasoline gained on concern that Irving Oil’s 298,800-barrel-a-day refinery in New Brunswick, Canada may slow output and reduce gasoline supplies to the U.S. East coast after a train derailment there closed the track. Closes: CLQ3 +0.86 (+0.83%), RBQ3 +0.0458 (+1.59%).
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR07/10/2013
US
0700 ET
Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous -11.7%, purchase sub-index -3.1% and refi sub-index -15.6%.
1000 ET
May wholesale inventories expected +0.3% m/m, Apr +0.2% m/m.
1030 ET
EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
1300 ET
Treasury auctions $21 billion in 10-year T-notes.
1400 ET
FOMC minutes from Jun 18-19 meeting.
1610 ET
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks at a National Bureau of Economic Research Conference in Boston on The First 100 Years of the Federal Reserve: The Policy Record, Lessons Learned, and Prospects for the Future.
JPN
0100 ET
Japan Jun consumer confidence expected -0.1 to 45.6, May 45.7.
1950 ET
Japan May machine orders expected +1.9% m/m and +3.3% y/y, Apr -8.8% m/m and -1.1% y/y.
2200 ET
Tokyo Jun average office vacancies, May 8.33%.
GER
0200 ET
German final-Jun CPI (EU harmonized) expected unrevised from prelim +0.1% m/m and +1.9% y/y.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR07/10/2013
Company Name
Symbol
Time
Event Description
Period
EPS Est (US$)
Fastenal Co
FAST US
6:50
Q2 2013 Earnings Release
Q2 2013
0.405
Family Dollar Stores Inc
FDO US
7:00
Q3 2013 Earnings Release
Q3 2013
1.026
MSC Industrial Direct Co Inc
MSM US
7:30
Q3 2013 Earnings Release
Q3 2013
0.973
Family Dollar Stores Inc
FDO US
10:00
Q3 2013 Earnings Call
Q3 2013
Fastenal Co
FAST US
10:00
Q2 2013 Earnings Call
Q2 2013
MSC Industrial Direct Co Inc
MSM US
11:00
Q3 2013 Earnings Call
Q3 2013
Smithfield Foods Inc
SFD US
14:30
Hearing Smithfield and Beyond:Examining Foreign Purchases of Amer. Food Cos.""
Chevron Corp
CVX US
17:00
Q2 2013 Sales and Revenue Release - Interim Update
Yadkin Valley Financial Corp (YDKN) is the Chart of the Day. Although the Carolina regional bank is small it has attracted the attention of 6 Wall Street analysts. The stock has both a Trend Spotter buy signal and 100% Barchart technical buy signals. In the past year the stock gained 87.05%.
Article:
The Chart of the Day is Yadkin Valley Financial Corporation (YDKN). In the last month the stock hit 16 new highs and is up 21.50%. The Relative Strength Index is 87.42%. I found the stock near the top of the New High List when sorted for frequency.
The Bank's primary business is providing banking, mortgage, investment and insurance services to residents and businesses. It operates primarily in North Carolina and South Carolina.
Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.
Barchart technical indicators:
100% Barchart technical buy signals
Trend spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
16 new highs and up 21.50% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 87.42%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 12.95
Recently traded at 15.20 with a 50 day moving average of 12.72
Fundamental factors:
Market Cap $218.58 million
Revenue projected to grow 9.40% this year and another 2.20% next year
Earnings estimated to increase by 165.30% this year, 12.20% next year and continue to increase by 5.00% annually for the next 5 years
Wall Street analysts issued 2 buy and 4 hold recommendations to their clients
You can play this stock 1 of 2 ways. Buy and hold with the hope it will be gobbled up by a larger regional at a premium or watch the moving averages and bail if the price reverses below its 100 day moving average.
Everything you need to know about the markets in one free daily newsletter.
You will also receive a free subscription to the Barchart family of newsletters.
OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
September E-mini S&Ps (ESU13 +0.35%) this morning are up +0.21% and European stocks are up +0.34%, both at 2-1/2 week highs. Asian stocks closed mostly higher: Japan +2.58%, Hong Kong +0.49%, China -0.04%, Taiwan +1.08%, Australia +1.50%, Singapore +0.73%, South Korea +0.77%, India +0.59%. Alcoa is up over 1% in pre-market trading after it reported better-than-expected earnings and fueled optimism for positive earnings results for stocks as Q2 earnings reporting season begins. The British pound slipped to a 3-3/4 month low against the dollar after UK May industrial production stagnated, which casts doubt on the strength of the recovery. Commodity prices are mixed. Aug crude oil (CLQ13-0.15%) is down -0.14%. Aug gasoline (RBQ13-0.01%) is down -0.04%, Aug gold (GCQ13 +1.04%) is up +1.06%, and Sep copper (HGU13-1.53%) is down -1.42%. Agricultural and livestock prices are higher. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.12%) is up +0.16%$. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.04% and USD/JPY is up +0.21%. September T-note prices (ZNU13 unch) are down -1 tick.
China Jun CPI rose +2.7% y/y, higher than expectations of +2.5% y/y, while the Jun PPI fell -2.7% y/y, the sixteenth straight month producer prices have fallen, and a bigger decline than expectations of -2.6% y/y.
Japan Jun machine tool orders fell -12.4% y/y, the fifteenth consecutive month the index has declined.
UK May industrial production was unchanged m/m and fell -2.3% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m and -1.5% y/y, and May manufacturing production unexpectedly fell -0.8% m/m and -2.9% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.4% m/m and -1.6% y/y.
The UK Jun BRC retail sales like-for-like monitor increased +1.4% y/y, weaker than expectations of +1.9% y/y.
Latvia won final approval from European Union finance ministers to become the 18th country of the Eurozone and will start using the euro currency on Jan 1, 2014. The finance ministers set the conversion rate for the Latvian lats at 0.702904 per euro.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
The Treasury today will sell $32 billion in 3-year T-notes, kicking off this week $66 billion package of 3-year, 10-year and 30-year securities. There are no earnings reports today from any major companies. Conferences during the remainder of this week include: JMP Securities Healthcare Conference on Tuesday, Semiconductor Equipment & Materials International West Conference on Tuesday, 2013 Washington DC Health Care Conference on Wednesday, and Bloomberg's Mexico Conference on Wednesday.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Kroger (KR +0.33%) will acquire Harris Teeter (HTSI +0.10%) for $49.38 per share.
Sprint (S-1.26%) was upgraded to "Outperform" from "Market Perform" at Cowen.
Wells Fargo (WFC +1.81%) was downgraded to "Neutral" from "Positive" at Susquehanna.
IBM (IBM +0.03%) was downgraded to "Neutral" from "Buy" at Goldman who lowered their price target on the stock to $200 from $220.
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ-1.60%) was upgraded to "Buy" from "Hold" at Brean Capital with a price target of $32.
DuPont (DD +1.43%) was downgraded to "Neutral" from "Outperform" at Macquarie.
Signature Bank (SBNY +0.80%) was upgraded to "Outperform" from "Perform" at Oppenheimer who raised their price target on the stock to $100.
Barnes & Noble (BKS-0.11%) fell 4% in after-hours trading after it announced that CEO William Lynch resigned effective immediately.
Raytheon (RTN +1.52%) was awarded a $279.4 million government contract for developmental efforts in support of the U.S. Navy's Technology Development Phase of the Next Generation Jammer Program.
Berkshire Hathaway reported a 16.15% stake in Symetra (SYA +0.12%) .
Comcast reported a 12.7% stake in Clearwire (CLWR unch) .
Alcoa (AA +1.41%) is up over 1% in pre-market trading after it reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 7 cents, better than consensus of 6 cents.
WD-40 (WDFC-0.22%) jumped over 11% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 EPS of 66 cents, better than consensus of 56 cents, and boosted its fiscal year 2013 EPS view to $2.40-$2.48 from $2.32-$2.42, higher than consensus of $2.39.
MARKET COMMENTS
Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU13 +0.35%) this morning are up +3.50 points (+0.21%) as Alcoa started off Q2 earnings reporting season with better-than-expected results. The U.S. stock market on Monday climbed to a 2-1/2 week high and closed higher on carry-over support from Friday’s stronger-than-expected payroll report. Another positive for stocks was optimism that stocks will beat Q2 earnings expectations as Q2 earnings reporting season began on Monday with Alcoa. Q2 earnings estimates have been lowered to +1.8% earnings growth from +8.7% 6 months ago, according to Bloomberg estimates. Closes: S&P 500 +0.53%, Dow Jones +0.59%, Nasdaq 100 +0.10%.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU13 unch) this morning are down -1 tick. Sep 10-year T-note prices on Monday recovered from a 23-month nearest-futures low and closed higher. The 10-year T-note yield climbed to a 23-month high of 2.75% before falling back after weaker-than-expected German May industrial production fueled a rally in German bunds that carried over into Treasuries. Closes: TYU3 +20.0, FVU3 +14.75.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.12%) this morning is up +0.138 (+0.16%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0005 (-0.04%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.21 (+0.21%). The dollar index on Monday fell back from a 3-year high and closed lower. Strength in stocks and a rebound in Treasury prices prompted profit-taking in the dollar. EUR/USD received a boost after Eurozone finance ministers agreed to release 3 billion euros of aid to Greece. Closes: Dollar index -0.256 (-0.30%), EUR/USD +0.00425 (+0.33%), USD/JPY -0.21 (-0.21%).
Aug WTI crude oil (CLQ13-0.15%) this morning is down -14 cents (-0.14%). Aug gasoline (RBQ13-0.01%) is down -0.0012 (-0.04%). Crude oil and gasoline prices on Monday settled lower. Aug crude fell back from a 14-month high on signs the unrest in Egypt hasn’t affected the flow of oil through the Suez Canal after an Egyptian official said the Suez Canal was “secure” and that traffic through the canal was “normal.” Closes: CLQ3 -0.08 (-0.08%), RBQ3 -0.0131 (-0.45%).
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR07/09/2013
US
0930 ET
IMF releases global economic forecasts and World Economic Outlook update.
1300 ET
Treasury auctions $32 billion in 3-year T-notes.
1630 ET
API weekly U.S. oil statistics.
JPN
0200 ET
Japan Jun machine tool orders, May -7.4% y/y.
1950 ET
Japan Jun domestic CGPI expected unch m/m and +1.2% y/y, May +0.1% m/m and +0.6% y/y.
1950 ET
Japan May tertiary industry index expected +0.8% m/m, Apr unch m/m.
UK
0430 ET
UK May industrial production expected +0.2% m/m and -1.5% y/y, Apr +0.1% m/m and -0.6% y/y. UK May manufacturing production expected +0.4% m/m and -1.6% y/y, Apr -0.2% m/m and -0.5% y/y.
0430 ET
UK May visible trade balance expected -8.485 bln pounds, April -8.224 bln pounds. UK non-EU May trade balance expected -3.480 bln pounds, Apr -3.414 bln pounds. UK May total trade balance expected -2.6 bln pounds, April -2.579 bln pounds.
1000 ET
UK Jun NIESR Jun GDP estimate, May +0.6%.
CHI
2200 ET
China Jun trade balance expected +27.80 billion, May +$20.42 billion. Jun exports expected +3.7% y/y, May +1.0% y/y. Jun imports expected +6.0% y/y, May -0.3% y/y.
n/a
China Jun new yuan loans expected 830.0 billion yuan, May 667.4 billion yuan.
Modine Manufacturing (MOD) is the Chart of the Day.The manufacturer of heat exchange equipment has a 96% technical buy signal as well a 15 new highs and a gain of 19.15% in the last month.
Article:
The Chart of the Day is Modine Manufacturing (MOD). The stock has a Trend Spotter buy signal and is up 74.56% in the last year. The stock was at the top of the New High List when sorted for frequency.
They operate primarily in a single industry consisting of the manufacture and sale of heat transfer equipment. This includes heat exchangers for cooling all types of engines, transmissions, auxiliary hydraulic equipment, air conditioning components used in cars, trucks, farm and construction machinery and equipment, and heating and cooling equipment for residential and commercial building HVAC .
Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.
Barchart technical indicators:
100% Barchart technical buy signals
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
15 new highs and up 19.15% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 73.61%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 11.80
Recently traded at 12.01 with a 50 day moving average of 10.09
Fundamental factors:
Market Cap $566.87
P/E 29.30
Revenue projected to grow 4.20% this year and another 7.30% next year
Earnings estimated to increase by 30.00% this year, an additional 53.80% next year and continue to increase by 40.00% annually for the next 5 years
Wall Street analysts have issued 3 hold recommendations for their clients
Financial Strength C++
This stock has moved a lot this year but still has some momentum. Exit your position if the stock drops below the 50 day moving average.
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