Tiger rally has us out of the woods

For those of you who think that financial columnists should be able to tell you exactly why the market went up or down each week you won't find that in my column. I just want to know what happened and I'll let the others give you what they think were the 58 different causes of last week's improvement. I'll just say that the anticipation and then the execution of Tiger's attempt to salvage his reputation saved the market and that guess has as much validity as anyone elses' prognostications.

First let's visit the Conference Board's report on the Leading Economic Index -- LEI. You'll remember that this is a once a month report I use to get a quick gauge on the state of the economy. The LEI was up .3% for the tenth month in a row with the Coincident Economic Index up .2% and the Lagging Economic Index is still declining at .1% but slowing. That makes 2 up and the Lagging slowing -- good signs of good things happening.

Now on to my 3 Barchart indicators that I follow:

The Value Line Index -- contains 1700 stocks so it's broader than the S&P 500 and the narrower Dow 30 -- up 3.45% for the week which is the second week in a row of price appreciation

• Barchart's 13 technical indicators rate the index a 64% buy with 9 buys, 3 holds and only 1 sell
• The Index closed Friday above its 20, 50 & 100 daily moving averages

Barchart market momentum indicator -- approximately 6000 stocks covered -- the percentage of stocks closing above their DMAs for various time frames -- good signs here too

• 20 DMA -- 74.99% closed above -- only 36.77% did last week
• 50 DMA -- 61.58% closed above -- only 42.92% did last week
• 100 DMA 67.49% closed above -- only 53.72% did last week

The ratio of stocks hitting new highs to stocks hitting new lows for various time periods -- 1.0+ bullish, 1.0 neutral, below .99 bearish -- very bullish this week

• 20 day new high to new low ratio -- 1672/306 = 5.46
• 65 day new high to new low ratio -- 559/94 = 5.94
• 100 day new high to new low ratio -- 431/69 = 6.25

Summary -- According to the Conference Board indices the economy in the US is improving. My 3 Barchart indicators tell me the market is improving. I'm happy.

This week's investment strategy -- with both the economy and the market giving a thumbs up I'll trim any stock not trading above its 50 DMA and not be afraid to replace it. I'll stay fully invested but as always will trim if the individual stocks reverse.

Over on the Wall Street Survivor competition Anthony Mirhaydari is in first place for February so far and managed to get an 11.22% return with the S&P only up 3.29% for the same period. I got the silver so far this month with a return of 9.43%. I'll trim out ScanSource Inc (SCSC) for failure to maintain a price above its 50 DMA and I'll wait till the market opens on Monday to replace it.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com

Disclosure : I hold no positions in the stocks mentioned in this article

Join me in a product recall

I'd like you all to join me in an effective product recall. We all agree that when a product does not work the way the seller promised us it would it's a fraud on the public and the product should be recalled. We should all have the right to send the product back and have our money refunded. It really becomes a problem when the product is ineffective and doesn't work at all or worse injures the public.

The representatives we sent to Washington think they should have the right to call the President of Toyota to come from Japan, bow before them and take a whipping in public for knowing he had a problem and taking too long to fix it. Some are even asking for his resignation. Let's use the same standard on them.

We sent them to Washington to fix some problems. We even identified the problems we wanted fixed. We wanted effective financial regulation with jobs for everyone between 18 - 65 who is able bodied. We wanted affordable housing and secure communities. Every American should be able to have nutritious food, decent medical care and an opportunity to an education. We wanted full funding for our military so that when we send them into a conflict that is in our interest they have all the tools and the go ahead to get the job done safely, quickly and effectively and get home fast. We want secure borders.

I don't know about you but I feel that they have postured and discussed and did ineffective fact finding worse than Toyota ever dreamed of.

I am tired of Washington not fixing the problems we have all identified for them. They have promised us that they agreed with our requests and they had what it took to fix them. All we had to do was vote for them -- and maybe send a few bucks to their campaign chests.

I haven't seen a single problem fixed; in fact some are even worse. It's time for that product recall to happen. The representatives in place are ineffective and even detrimental to the health of America.

When you go to the polls, start the product recall. I don't care if the candidate is a Democrat, Republican, Libertarian or independent; the party I want to see out of office is the Incumbent Party.

The way to turn around our economy is to get a new ship and a fresh crew.

We need new blood and new ideas. Let's all clean house, go out and find new candidates that can think outside the box and get the job done.

It's been said insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. Isn't that what we've been doing? We send the same people who were ineffective back to Washington hoping they will be effective this time.

Join me in a total product recall of the product we sent to Washington. Join me in a defeat of the Incumbent Party and send them all home.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.

Broadcasting is the strongest sector

Back when I was a student I used to spend hours in the library reading Trendlines and Value Line. I learned two important lessons: always know what industries are presently enjoying the best price momentum and then find the best companies in those industries. According to Barchart the strongest industry in the last 30 days has been the broadcasting industry. I begin my search by sorting the industry for the stocks having the best current relative strength and limit my research to the top 10.



To help me whittle down the list I use Barchart's 13 technical indicators and eliminate those that rank below 100% on all 13 indicators. Last, I want to make sure that the stock had a price appreciation in the last 5 days. I'm left with just 4 stocks. Let's research them one at a time.



Sirius XM (SIRI) -- according to their press release: Sirius Satellite Radio is building a digital satellite radio system that will broadcast up to 100 channels of music and entertainment programming to motorists throughout the continental United States. The company plans to offer channels of commercial-free music and channels of news, sports and entertainment programming for a monthly subscription fee. Sirius Satellite Radio has an exclusive agreement with Ford Motor Company to install Sirius receivers in Ford vehicles.

The stock had 8 price advances in the last 20 sessions and increased in 4 of the last 5 days. It has a buy on all 13 of Barchart's technical indicators and had a 56.72% increase in the last 30 days.

On the fundamental side analysts estimate that sales will increase 11.2% next year with a whopping 91.7% increase in earnings per share. The 5 year compounded growth rate is expected at 30% per year. They give the stock 3 buy and 3 hold recommendations.

Lin TV Corp (TVL) -- LIN TV Corp. is a pure-play television company covering the United States and Puerto Rico. They own and operate television stations and provide management or sales services to television stations. Under local marketing agreements, they provide substantial portions of the broadcast programming for airing on another station in the same market as a station they own and operate and sell advertising time for that station.

The stock has enjoyed price appreciation in 10 of the last 20 sessions and had 3 increases in the last 5 days. It too gets 100% rating on all 13 of Barchart's technical indicators and had a 27.38% price increase in the last 20 sessions.

Analysts consensus is for a 23.7% increase in sales and a 1133% increase in EPS. Sounds big but that's voodoo math coming from a loss this year. There is only 1 hold recommendation out there.

Global Traffic Network (GNET) -- Global Traffic Network is a provides custom traffic and news reports to radio and television stations outside the U.S. The Company is a Delaware corporation that, through its two wholly-owned operating subsidiaries, provides customized traffic and news reports to affiliated radio and television stations, in exchange for commercial airtime inventory. The Company operates traffic and news network in Australia, and is quickly ramping operations in Canada. In exchange for providing custom traffic and news reports, television and radio stations provide Global Traffic Network with commercial airtime inventory that the Company sells to advertisers. As a result, radio and television stations incur no out-of -pocket costs when contracting to use Global Traffic Network's services.

Again this stock hits 13 out of 13 for Barchart's technical indicators. The stock had 10 price increases in the last 20 sessions and is 3 for 5 recently. The price increase in the last 20 sessions was 12.67%.

Analysts expect a 10.3% increase in sales and earnings increase of 1050%, coming off a loss. Recommendation of 3 buys and a hold are there.

Sinclair Broadcast Group (SBGI) is the last to make the cut. Sinclair Broadcast Group is a diversified broadcasting company that owns or provides programming services pursuant to local marketing agreements to more television stations than any other commercial broadcasting group in the United States.

With all 13 of Barchart's technical indicators signaling buy the stock had 4 price appreciations in the last 20 session but is 3 for 5 recently. 19.46% price increase in the last month isn't bad.

Fundamentally this is the weakest stock with revenue expected to decrease by 1.2% next year but earning up 10.2%. With only a 3% growth rate consensus for the next 5 years the stock still enjoys 2 buy and 2 hold recommendation from analysts.

I'm not sure what your opinion is but it sounds like Sirius XM Radio (SIRI) is the pick from this bucket of broadcasting stocks. Yes this is a penny stock trading at close to a dollar a share but with volume up to 9 million shares a day, it's a penny stock we can all love.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.

Disclosure: No positions at the time of publication

Medical devices are in demand

Each day when I screen on Barchart for the stocks that are hitting new highs the symbol MEND - Micrus Endovascular keeps coming up. When I sort for frequency this stock had 14 price advances in the last 20 trading sessions and had 4 in the most recent 5 days. It has enjoyed a 31.51% price increase in the last month. Barchart's 13 technical indicators hit a buy signal on all 13 indicators for a 100% buy rating

Micrus Endovascular Corporation is a medical device company that develops, manufactures and markets implantable and disposable medical devices used in the treatment of cerebral vascular diseases.

Zack recently upgraded this company to a buy and other analysts agree. 11 analysts have increased their earning per share estimates in just the last 7 day. The consensus is for a 14.2% growth in sales and a 7.0 growth in EPS. The 5 year compounded EPS growth is estimated at 32.2%. Wall Street has 11 buy recommendations out with only 2 holds.

Other sites agree -- Motley Fool members think the stock will out perform the market by a vote of 72 to 4 with the All Stars in agreement 19 to 2. The Wall Street columnists Fool follows like the stock 16 to 0.

What more could you want in a stock:

1. Recent upgrade by Zacks
2. Price appreciation in more than 50% of the recent trading sessions
3. All 13 of Barchart's technical indicators signal buy
4. Other site like Motley Fool have over whelming interest

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com

Disclosure: no positions at the time of publication

Don't be chicken to buy Tyson

When I begin to search for new stocks I always begin the same way using Barchart to run a list of the stocks having recent price appreciation and then sorting for the stocks that have had the most frequent price appreciations in the last 20 trading sessions. I then run through a sorting process to weed the list down further. My pick for today is Tyson Foods Inc (TSN) .

I'll go into the reasons in a moment. I don't know about you but I am eating a lot more chicken. Many of my friends are eating less red meat and those that haven't gone over to the dark side and become total vegetarians are restricting themselves to fish and chicken. Having been raised in the south I like chicken just about any way you can fix it: grilled, fried, baked, but I still like it with the skin on -- I'm not totally nuts yet.

Tyson Foods, Inc. is an integrated producer, processor and marketer of chicken and poultry-based food products. Tyson supplies chicken products through food service, retail grocery stores, club stores and international distribution channels. The core business is chicken in the United States; but they also make corn and flour tortillas under the Mexican Original brand and through its subsidiary Cobb Vantress, a chicken breeding stock supplier. If you haven't heard of the brand you don't eat chicken.

The stock is on my list because it has hit new highs in 12 of the last trading sessions and is 5 for 5 recently. The stock had a 22.45% price appreciation in the last 30 days and has 13 of 13 buy signals on Barchart's technical indicators for a 100% buy rating.

Of the 13 analysts following the stock 11 have revised their next years EPS estimates in the last 7 days. The consensus is for a 4.2% revenue growth next year coupled with a 5.1% increase in earning per share. They estimate a 8.5% compounded EPS growth for the next 5 years. Brokerage analysts give the stock 6 buy and 7 hold recommendations.

Short interest has also been decreasing from a high of 14 million shares last year down to 9 million at the end of January.

Just to double check my research I went over on Motley Fool and the CAPS members think the stock will outperform the market by a vote of 191 to 72 with the All Stars in agreement 55 to 15.

This is what I look for in a stock:

• The stock is having price appreciation in more than 50% of the recent trading sessions
• There is interest on Wall Street and the analysts are predicting increasing revenue and earnings
• Some other sites following the stock are not betting against it

Tyson Foods (TSN) might make a good addition to your portfolio. First research it yourself and see if it fits the rules you've set for yourself on risk and diversification. As always put in a stop loss at either a percentage drop or a daily moving average and monitor your portfolio on a regular basis.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.

Disclosure: no position at the time of publication

The Long and Short of it - February 16,2010

Each day I go on Barchart and sort the new high and new low list for frequency. I then take the top 10 highs and the top 10 lows and do additional screening. I'll list here those that pass and might be good additions to your portfolio. Use this list as a starting point and then investigate each stock to see if it has a place in your portfolio.

Buy Long Stocks:

PTIE - Pain Therapeutics - 100% buy - 13 of 20 days of price appreciation and monthly return 16.17%

Pain Therapeutics is developing a new generation of opioid painkillers.Opioids are drugs derived from the poppy plant. The company uses technology to reformulate opioid drugs, such as morphine, into new painkillers with improved clinical benefits. The company has four opioid painkillers in Phase II clinical trials. The company believes its drugs offer enhanced pain relief, fewer adverse side effects and reduced tolerance and addiction compared to existing opioid painkillers.

MEND - Micrus Endovascular - 100% buy - 10 of 20 days of price appreciation and a monthly return of 25.18%

Micrus Endovascular Corporation is a medical device company that develops, manufactures and markets implantable and disposable medical devices used in the treatment of cerebral vascular diseases.

XCHO - XenaCare Holdings - 100% buy - 13 of 20 days of price appreciation and a monthly return of 451.72%

XenaCare Holdings, Inc. engages in the formulation, marketing, and distribution of nutrition supplement products primarily in the United States. Its clinical products include XenaCor, which lowers serum cholesterol, C-reactive protein, and homocysteine levels, designed to support cardiovascular health; XenaTri for lowering triglycerides and raising HDL to support cardiovascular health; and XenaZyme Plus that increases the body's oxygen carrying capacities, designed to support digestion. The company's clinical products also comprise body replenishment products. In addition, it offers formulations for the energy/lifestyle performance market, which consists of sports line for athletes, including SunPill that is formulated to protect the skin when exposed to damaging ultraviolet rays. XenaCare markets its products through the Internet, pharmacies, infomercials, and doctors' offices

REGN - Regeneron Pharma - 100% buy - 12 of 20 days of price appreciation with a 19.42% return

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company that discovers, develops, and intends to commercialize therapeutic drugs for thetreatment of serious medical conditions. Regeneron's platform technologies include Targeted GenomicsTM, FunctionomicsTM, and Designer Protein TherapeuticsTM. Regeneron has drugs in clinical and preclinical development for the potential treatment of obesity, rheumatoid arthritis, cancer, allergies, asthma, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, constipating conditions, ischemia, and other diseases and disorders.

SGB - SouthWest Georgia - 100% buy - 13 days of price appreciation in the last 20 sessions and a 52.48% return

Southwest Georgia Financial Corporation is a state-chartered bank holding company with approximately $two hundred ninety million in assets headquartered in Moultrie, Georgia. Its primary subsidiary, Southwest Georgia Bank, offers comprehensive financial services to consumer, business, and governmental customers. The current banking facilities include the main office located in Colquitt County, and branch offices located in Baker County, Thomas County, and Worth County. In addition to conventional banking services, the bank provides investment planning and management, trust management, mortgage banking, and commercial and individual insurance products. Insurance products and advice are provided by Southwest Georgia Insurance Services which has an office in Colquitt County. Mortgage banking for primarily commercial properties is provided by Empire Financial Services, Inc., a mortgage banking services firm.


Sell or Short Stocks:
PKY - Parkway Properties - 100% sell with 13 price declines in the last 20 sessions and a 22.92% decline in price

Parkway Properties, Inc. is a self-administered, self-managed real estate investment trust specializing in the acquisition, ownership, management,financing and leasing of office properties in the Southeastern United States and Texas.

BSX - Boston Scientific - 100% sell rating with 11 price declines in 20 sessions and a 19.15% price decline

Boston Scientific Corporation is a worldwide developer, manufacturer and marketer of minimally invasive medical devices. The company's products are used in a broad range of interventional medical specialties, including cardiology, electrophysiology, gastroenterology, neuro-endovascular therapy, pulmonary medicine, radiology, urology and vascular surgery.

Please remember to research these stocks fully before adding to your portfolio

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com

Disclosure: I hold no positions in these stocks at the time of publication

Market gave me a suprise

Each weekend I always step back and try to cut through all the noise and see what the state of the market really is. I use Barchart to get all my data and try to use a consistent methodology so I get the feel of what is really happening. Let's look at the 3 sets of data I use to see where we're at this week.

Value Line Index -- this index uses 1700 stocks so it's much broader than the narrower S&P 500 or Dow 30 -- Up 2.54% this week -- Last month down 2.89% but up 1.57% so far this month -- Let's call it recovering

• Barchart's technical indicators signal a buy on only 5 of the 13 signals for an overall rating of hold
• The Index closed Friday above its 100 day moving average but is still below its 20 and 50 DMA

Barchart market momentum indicator -- normally covers approximately 6000 stocks --the percentage of stocks closing above their daily moving averages for various time frames -- still weak but improving

• 20 DMA -- 42.01% closed above -- last week it was only 20.01%
• 50 DMA -- 43.42% closed above -- last week it was only 35.31%
• 100 DMA -- 54.84% closed above -- last week it was only 45.63%

Ratio of stocks hitting new highs to stocks hitting new lows for various periods -- 1.0+ bullish, 1.0 neutral, below .99 bearish -- we have 1 bearish and 2 bullish signals

• 20 day ratio of stocks hitting new highs to new lows -- 434/474 = .92
• 65 day ratio of stocks hitting new highs to new lows -- 246/209 = 1.18
• 100 day ratio of stocks hitting new highs to new lows -- 194/149 = 1.30

Summary - the market shows improving numbers but has still not returned to the level where I feel comfortable. When at least 50% of the stocks are trading above their recent daily moving averages then you have a better than 50/50 chance of having your portfolio increase. There is a lot going on over there in Europe and we seem to be improving faster than they are. Greece is a problem and I'm afraid that we may see problems in Portugal, Spain and maybe even France. My biggest fear is not the economic turmoil but maybe some civil unrest. If there are large numbers of men ages 18-40 unemployed and they begin to blame their governments for their plight we might see riots like we saw in some of the poorer parts of Paris a few years ago. Nothing good can happen during civil unrest. That leads me to my next investment.

Next week's strategy -- Since our economy has a jump on Europe I'm going to short the Euro. I'll do that by adding 500 shares of EUO - the ProShare Ultrashort Euro ETF - Right now the Euro is at 1.359. Back a few years ago I can remember when it traded at .85. If that happened again since this is a leveraged ETF I could see a gain of up to 120% on this trade.

Wall Street Survivor results -- This month I look like a champ so far. The S&P 500 is up .15% and I'm up 4.52% with the next competitor the Motley Fool All Stars up .57%. I'm still down for the lifetime of this contest but I'm trying to catch up. We've all seen how rankings can change at the drop of a hat. Wish me luck.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVan Meerten@gmail.com

Disclosure -- I do not hold any positions in the stocks in my Wall Street Survivor portfolio at the time of publication.