Financial Tides -- A Stock Market Investing Newsletter by Jim Van Meerten: 2012-03-18

Friday, March 23, 2012

3 NASDAQ 100 stocks on the move up

This morning I used Barchart to screen the NASDAQ 100 stocks for the three with the most steady upward price momentum and found Starbucks (SBUX), Priceline.com (PCLN) and Apple (AAPL)

Starbucks (SBUX)

Barchart technical indicators:

96% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
16 new highs and up 14.24% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 81.80% in the last month
Barchart computes a technical support level at 53.10
Recently traded at 55.43 with a 50 day moving average of 49.31

Priceline.com (PCLN)

Barchart technical indicators:

96% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
15 new highs and up 21.87% in the last month
Relative strength Index 83.86%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 711.86
Recently traded at 714.27 with a 50 day moving average of 582.93

Apple (AAPL)

Barchart technical indicators:

96% Barchaft technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
12 new highs and up 16.48% in the last month
Relative strength Index 80.28%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 597.96
Recently traded at 601.33 with a 50 day moving average of 505.05

Barchart Morning Call 3/23

Barchart Morning Call

Barchart.com - 1 hr 25 mins ago

Overnight Developments

Global stocks this morning are mostly lower with the Euro Stoxx 50 down -0.47% and Jun S&Ps up +0.10 of a point. The dollar index fell to a 2-week low and most commodities rose as the market awaits the Feb U.S. new home sales later this morning. Overall consumer sentiment is mixed as the Feb U.K. nationwide consumer confidence unexpectedly fell -3 to 44, weaker than expectations of unchanged at 47, while the Mar French business confidence rise +4 to 96, stronger than expectations of +1 to 93. St. Louis Fed President Bullard warned that the U.S. and world economies risk elevated inflation that persists for years should they mistime their exits from "ultra-easy" monetary policies. Bullard added that U.S. monetary policy may be at a "turning point" and the Fed's first interest rate increase could come as soon as late 2013, which contrasts with Fed Chairman Bernanke's view that economic slack and subdued inflation will probably warrant record low interest rates at least through late 2014.
Asian stocks today closed mostly lower with Japan down -1.14%, China -1.19%, Australia -0.08%, South Korea -0.01%, India +0.96%. Asian stocks closed lower after a surprise drop at China's third-largest bank added to concern the global economy is slowing as manufacturing activity contracts from Europe to Asia. A stronger yen undercut Japanese exporters which led the Nikkei 225 Stock Index lower while Agricultural Bank of China slumped 3.1% and led China's Shanghai Stock Index lower after it reported Q4 net income unexpectedly fell -14% to 21.2 billion yuan ($3.4 billion), weaker than analysts' estimates for a +17% increase to 28.84 billion-yuan. Chinese property developers also closed lower after the Economic Information Daily reported that the cities of Guangzhou and Shenzhen may follow Chongqing and Shanghai in starting property tax trials.

Overnight U.S. Stock News

June S&Ps this morning are trading little changed, up +0.10 of a point. The U.S. stock market Thursday finished lower on global economic concerns after manufacturing activity contracted in China and Europe: Dow Jones -0.60%, S&P 500 -0.72%, Nasdaq Composite -0.39%. The S&P 500 and the Dow posted 1-week lows. Bearish factors Thursday included (1) concerns over global economic growth after Euro-Zone manufacturing and services contracted more than expected in March and a private report showed manufacturing activity in China may contract for a fifth month, (2) the weaker than expected Jan FHFA house price index along with the downward revision to Dec (Jan unchanged m/m versus expectations of +0.3% and Dec revised down to +0.1% from the originally reported +0.7%), and (3) doubts about the sustainability of the U.S. economic expansion after FedEx, the world?s largest cargo airline and a barometer of global economic conditions, predicted ?below-trend? growth in coming quarters.
Bullish factors Thursday included (1) the larger-than-expected decline in weekly initial U.S. unemployment claims to their lowest level in 4 years (-5,000 to 348,000 versus expectations of -1,000 to 350,000) and (2) the greater-than-expected +0.7% increase in Feb U.S. leading indicators, better than expectations of +0.6% and the fifth straight monthly gain, which bolsters confidence in the U.S. economic outlook.
Micron Technology (MU) slipped 3.4% in European trading after the largest U.S. maker of computer memory reported a Q2 net loss of 23 cents a share, wider than analysts' estimates of a 19 cent a share loss, as sluggish demand for personal computers dragged down chip prices.

Today's Market Focus

June 10-year T-notes this morning are up +5.5 ticks. T-note prices Thursday settled higher for a second day after U.S. home prices unexpectedly stagnated along with increased safe-haven demand for Treasuries as reports showed manufacturing activity in Europe and China contracted: TYM2 +5.5, FVM2 +9.7, EDU2 unchanged. Bullish factors included (1) the weaker than expected Jan FHFA house price index along with the downward revision to Dec (Jan unchanged m/m versus expectations of +0.3% and Dec revised down to +0.1% from the originally reported +0.7%), (2) concerns over global economic growth which undercut stock prices and boosted the safe-haven demand for Treasuries after Euro-Zone manufacturing and services contracted more than expected in March and a private report showed manufacturing activity in China may contract for a fifth month, and (3) the action by the Fed to purchase $2.008 billion of Treasuries as part of its Operation Twist Program to replace $400 billion of short-term debt in its portfolio with longer-term Treasuries in an effort to keep borrowing costs down. Bearish factors Thursday included (1) the larger-than-expected decline in weekly initial U.S. unemployment claims to their lowest level in 4 years (-5,000 to 348,000 versus expectations of -1,000 to 350,000) and (2) supply pressures as the Treasury auctioned $13 billion of 10-year TIPS.
The dollar index this morning is lower and at a 2-week low with the dollar/yen +0.15 yen and the euro/dollar +0.43 cents. The dollar index Thursday settled higher as the euro weakened on concern the European economy was slowing after data showed European manufacturing activity contracted more expected along with global growth concerns after a private report showed manufacturing activity in China may shrink for a fifth month: Dollar Index +0.079, USD/JPY -0.871, EUR/USD -0.00155. Bullish factors included (1) euro weakness after the Mar Euro-Zone PMI composite contracted more than expected, and (2) increased safe-haven demand for the dollar after the Mar HSBC flash China manufacturing PMI slipped -1.5 to 48.1, its lowest level in 4 months and an indication manufacturing activity in China may contract for a fifth month. Bearish factors included (1) strength in the yen which rallied to a 1-week high against the dollar after Fed Japan exports fell less than expected and the Feb Japan trade balance unexpected showed a +32.9 billion yen surplus, better than expectations of a -120 billion yen deficit and (2) the unexpected stagnation in the Jan FHFA house price purchase index, which indicates ongoing weakness in the U.S. housing market.
May crude oil prices this morning are up +39 cents a barrel and May gasoline is +1.00 cent per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices Thursday tumbled as the dollar rallied and after manufacturing activity in Europe and China contracted, which signals that global fuel consumption may decline: CLK12 -$1.92, RBK -1.95. May crude posted to a 1-week low. Bearish factors included (1) the stronger dollar, which undercuts most commodities, (2) concern a global economic slowdown will reduce fuel demand after manufacturing activity in Europe and China contracted this month and (3) increased supplies after Libyan crude output rose 200,000 barrels to 1.125 million last month, the highest in a year and as Iraqi production increased 10,000 barrels a day to 2.76 million in Feb, the highest since 2000. Bullish factors included (1) the greater-than-expected decline in weekly initial U.S. unemployment claims to their lowest level in 4 years, which boosts confidence in the economic outlook and fuel demand and (2) the statement from the IEA that it is not planning any coordinated action among its members to release oil stockpiles and it is premature to speculate about "unconfirmed rumors" about the release of strategic reserves.

Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap): DRI-Darden Restaurants (BEST earnings consensus $1.24), CIM-Chimera Investment Corp. (0.11), CMVT-Comverse Technology (0.19), KBH-KB Home (-0.24), DMND-Diamond Foods (0.72).
Global Financial Calendar

Friday 3/23/12
United States
1000 ET	Feb new home sales expected +1.2% to 325,000, Jan -0.9% to 321,000.
1345 ET	Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke delivers brief opening remarks at the Fed?s 2-day Conference on Central Banking in Washington, D.C.
1430 ET	Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart speaks at Georgetown University on ?Remarks on career and Federal Reserve.?
France
0345 ET	Revised Q4 French wages q/q, previous +0.3% q/q.
0345 ET	Mar French business confidence indicator expected +1 to 93, Feb unchanged at 92.
Canada
0700 ET	Feb Canada CPI expected +0.5% m/m and +2.7% y/y, Jan +0.4% m/m and +2.5% y/y.
0700 ET	Feb Bank of Canada core CPI expected +0.3% m/m and +2.2% y/y, Jan +0.2% and +2.1% y/y.
Euro-Zone
1330 ET	ECB Executive Board member Jose Manuel Gonzalez-Paramo speaks at the University of Malaga in Spain.

Barchart.com provides Financial Quotes, Charts and Technical Analysis for Stock and Commodity Traders.

Madison Square Garden - MSG - Barchart Chart of the Day

Barchart.coms Chart of the Day - Madison Square Garden (MSG)

Barchart Research Team - Barchart.com - Thu Mar 22, 6:30PM CDT

Related Stocks

MSG - Madison Square Garden

Sym	Last	Chg	Pct
MSG	33.58	+0.45	+1.36%

The "Chart of the Day" is Madison Square Garden (MSG), which showed up on Thursday's Barchart "All Time High" list. MSG on Thursday posted a new all-time high of $33.68 and closed up 1.36%. TrendSpotter has been Long since Feb 7 at $29.77. In recent news on the stock, Maxim on Feb 21 reiterated its Buy rating on Madison Square Garden and raised its price target to $42 from $36. Madison Square Garden, with a market cap of $2 billion, is a fully-integrated sports, entertainment and media business with assets including the New York Knicks (NBA) and the New York Rangers (NHL).

How we found the Chart of the Day:
We found the "Chart of the Day" by scanning the Barchart "All Time High" list. In order to get to that list, we first clicked on the Stocks menu item on the Barchart home page, then on the "All Time Highs" menu item on the left menu bar. We then sorted the list by percentage gainers by clicking on the "Percent" column title. A stock that has posted a new All-Time high is typically showing strong upside momentum.
The status of Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.

TrendSpotter: Buy
Short-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
Medium-Term Indicators: 75% Buy
Long-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
Overall Average 96% Buy

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Bassett Furniture Industries - BSET - buy signals

This morning I added Bassett Furniture Industries (BSET) to the Barchart Van Meerten Speculative portfolio for very positive upward momentum:

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
19 new highs and up 8.74% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 84.11%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 8.72
Recently traded at 8.83 with a 50 day moving average of 8.18

Chipotle Mexican Grill - CMG

This morning I added Chipolte Mexican Grill (CMG) to the Barchart Van Meerten New High portfolio for very positive upward price movement:

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
17 new highs and up 8.62% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 81.69%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 411.54
Recently traded at 418.13 with a 50 day moving average of 381.01

Wednesday, March 21, 2012

3 Small Cap S&P 600 stocks on the move up

This morning I used Barchart to screen the Small Cap S&P 600 stocks for the 3 with the most steady and consistent upward price momentum and found Movado Group (MOV), Select Comfort Group (SCSS) and Cantel Medical (CMN)

Movado Group (MOV)

Barchart technical indicators:

88% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
14 new highs and up 7.49% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 62.47%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 21.70
Recently traded at 21.97 with a 50 day moving average of 20.04

Select Comfort Group (SCSS)

Barchart technical indicators:

88% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
13 new highs and up 14.80% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 74.31%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 31.35
Recently traded at 32.20 with a 50 day moving average of 27.68

Cantel Medical (CMN)

Barchart technical indicators:

96% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
12 new highs and up 17.12% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 73.24%
Recently traded at 24.36 with a 50 day moving average of 21.30

Barchart Morning Call 3/21

Barchart Morning Call

Barchart.com - 4 mins ago

Overnight Developments

Global stocks this morning are mostly higher with the Euro Stoxx 50 up +0.13% and Jun S&Ps up +2.90 points. The dollar index slipped to a 1-1/2 week low, Treasuries and bunds fell and stocks and commodities gained after Greek Prime Minister Papademos won parliamentary approval for a 130 billion-euro bailout. Oracle is 2% higher in European trading after the company late yesterday said that new software-license sales, an indicator of future revenue growth, rose 7% in fiscal Q3 to $2.37 billion, well ahead of analysts' estimates of 3% growth. Another positive for stocks was the action by Germany's RWI Economic Institute to raise its 2012 German GDP forecast to +1.0% from a December forecast of +0.6%. Gains in European stocks were limited after former ECB Council member Weber said "the European sovereign-debt crisis will continue for several rounds."
Asian stocks today closed mostly lower with Japan down -0.55%, China +0.13%, Australia -0.49%, South Korea -0.70%, India +1.65%. Most Asian stock markets weakened on concern a Chinese economic slowdown will curb demand for the region's exports. Asian carmakers fell after an official at the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers yesterday said auto sales will probably miss their 8% growth forecast this year amid rising fuel costs and a slowing economy. Asian commodity producers also finished lower after Australia, the largest exporter of iron ore and coal, cut its forecast for minerals and energy export earnings this fiscal year by 3.2% amid expectations of lower commodity prices. Japanese stocks and the yen were undercut after the Jan Japan all industry activity index fell -1.0% m/m, weaker than expectations of -0.7% m/m.

Overnight U.S. Stock News

June S&Ps this morning are trading up +2.90 points. The U.S. stock market Tuesday declined on concern a slowdown in the Chinese economy will slow the global economy as well: Dow Jones -0.52%, S&P 500 -0.30%, Nasdaq Composite -0.14%. The Nasdaq posted a fresh 11-year high. Bearish factors Tuesday included (1) weakness in industrial companies and commodity producers over Chinese economic growth concerns after BHP Billiton, the world's largest mining company, said Chinese steel production was slowing, and after an official of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers' said total vehicle deliveries to China, forecast to grow 8% this year, may fail to increase by even 5% because of the "difficult" economy, (2) concern the Chinese economy may slow even further after China's refiners raised fuel prices for the second time in less than 6 weeks as they hiked their prices for gasoline and diesel by 7%, the biggest increase in more than 2 years, and (3) long liquidation pressures as the S&P 500 has soared over +22% in the past 3-months to Monday's 3-3/4 year high.
Bullish factors Tuesday included (1) the larger-than expected increase in Feb U.S. building permits to their highest level in 3-1/3 years (+5.1% to 717,000 versus expectations of +0.4% to 685,000), which signals increased homebuilding in the months ahead, and (2) the slide in crude oil pries after Saudi Arabia promised to keep markets well-stocked with crude.
Oracle (ORCL) rose 2% in pre-market trading after the company late yesterday reported Q2 profit of 62 cents a share, better than analysts' estimates of 56 cents, and said new software-license sales, an indicator of future revenue growth, rose 7% in fiscal Q3 to $2.37 billion, well ahead of analysts' estimates of 3% growth.

Today's Market Focus

June 10-year T-notes this morning are up +1.5 ticks. T-note prices Tuesday moved higher early on increased safe-haven demand after stocks fell over concern economic growth was slowing in China but then shed their gains and settled lower as stocks rebounded off of their lows: TYM2 -1.0, FVM2 -2.2, EDU2 -2.5. The 10-year T-note yield rose to a fresh 4-1/2 month high of 2.396%. Bearish factors included (1) the larger-than expected increase in Feb U.S. building permits to their highest level in 3-1/3 years (+5.1% to 717,000 versus expectations of +0.4% to 685,000) and (2) continued long liquidation of Treasuries on speculation the strengthening U.S. economy will reduce the safe-haven appeal of U.S. government debt. Bullish factors Tuesday included (1) early safe-haven demand for Treasuries as stocks opened lower on concern economic growth was slowing in China and (2) the Fed's purchase of $1.969 billion of Treasuries as part of its Operation Twist Program to replace $400 billion of short-term debt in its portfolio with longer-term Treasuries in an effort to keep borrowing costs down.
The dollar index this morning is weaker and at a 1-1/2 week low with the dollar/yen +0.36 yen and the euro/dollar +0.19 cents. The dollar index Tuesday settled higher on increased safe-haven demand as stocks weakened early along with a slide in commodity currencies against the dollar on concern China's economy was slowing: Dollar Index +0.118, USD/JPY +0.359, EUR/USD -0.00132. Bullish factors included (1) increased safe-haven demand for the dollar as global equities slumped, and (2) weakness in commodity currencies such as the Canadian dollar and Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar after BHP Billiton, the world's largest mining company, said Chinese steel production is slowing, which raises concern the Chinese economy and the global economy as well will slow. Bearish factors included (1) the smaller-than-expected increase in Feb German producer prices, which is euro supportive and (2) euro positive comments from ECB Council member Makuch who said rumors of division within the ECB are "wrong" and that ECB President Draghi will detail the bank's strategy to exit from non-standard policy measures when the time is right.
May crude oil prices this morning are up +57 cents a barrel and May gasoline is +0.20 of a cent per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices Tuesday settled lower on signs economic growth is slowing in China along with promises from Saudi Arabia to keep markets well-stocked with crude: CLK12 -$2.49, RBK -1.05. Bearish factors included (1) the stronger dollar, (2) the action by China to raise fuel prices by the most in 2 years, which may reduce domestic fuel demand, along with concern its economy is slowing after a deputy to the secretary general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers' said total vehicle deliveries to China, forecast to grow 8% this year, may fail to increase by even 5% because of the "difficult" economy, (3) comments from the Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi who said his country aims "to provide adequate supplies of petroleum, stabilize oil markets and return prices to fair levels for producers, consumers" and the oil industry and that it can increase crude output by as much as 25% immediately if needed, and (4) the outlook for Wednesday's weekly DOE crude supplies to increase for a fifth week to a 6-month high. Bullish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected increase in Feb U.S. building permits to a 3-1/3 year high, which signals further strength in hole building and is positive for economic growth and fuel demand and (2) the statement from the U.S. EIA that if Sunoco fails to find a buyer for its Philadelphia refinery by July that forces it to shut production at the refiner, prices will "likely rise" and lead to gasoline shortages in the U.S. Northeast. Expectations for Wednesday's weekly inventory report from the DOE are for crude oil supplies to increase 2.35 million bbl, gasoline stockpiles to decrease 2.0 million bbl, distillate inventories to fall 1.5 million bbl and the refinery utilization rate to remain unchanged at 82.7% of capacity.

Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap): GIS-General Mills (BEST earnings consensus $0.55), DFS-Discover Financial Services (0.92), CLC-CLARCOR (0.47), ATU-Actuant (0.38), MFRM-Mattress Firm Holding (0.22), FRED-Fred's Inc. (0.24).
Global Financial Calendar

Wednesday 3/21/12
United States
0700 ET	Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous -2.4% with purchase mortgage sub-index +4.4% and refinancing sub-index -4.1%.
1000 ET	Feb existing home sales expected +0.9% to 4.61 million, Jan +4.3% to 4.57 million.
Japan
0030 ET	Jan Japan all industry activity index expected -0.7% m/m, Dec +1.3% m/m.
United Kingdom
0530 ET	Minutes of the Mar 7-8 BOE monetary policy meeting.
0530 ET	Feb U.K. pubic sector net borrowing expected +5.0 billion pounds, Jan -10.7 billion pounds.
Canada
0830 ET	Feb Canada leading indicators expected +0.6%, Jan +0.7%.

Barchart.com provides Financial Quotes, Charts and Technical Analysis for Stock and Commodity Traders.

Cisco Systems - CSCO - Barchart Chart of the Day

Barchart.com's Chart of the Day - Cisco Systems (CSCO)

Barchart Research Team - Barchart.com - Tue Mar 20, 6:09PM CDT

Related Stocks

CSCO - Cisco Systems

Sym	Last	Chg	Pct
CSCO	20.57	+0.43	+2.14%

The "Chart of the Day" is Cisco Systems (CSCO), which showed up on Tuesday's Barchart "52-Week High" list. Cisco on Tuesday posted a new 13-month high of $20.64 and closed up 2.14%. TrendSpotter issued a new Buy signal on Tuesday's close of $20.57. In recent news on the stock, Cantor on March 6 initiated coverage on Cisco with a Buy rating and a target of $22.50. Wells Fargo on March 16 reiterated its Outperform rating on Cisco and issued a favorable opinion on Cisco's acquisition of NDS Group for $5 billion, which it said gives Cisco attractive video assets. Cisco Systems, with a market cap of $107 billion, is the worldwide leader in networking for the Internet.

csco_700

How we found the Chart of the Day:
We found the "Chart of the Day" by scanning the Barchart "52-week Highs" page. That page shows all the stocks that have posted new 52-week highs, which is a popular sign of strong upside momentum.
The status of Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.

TrendSpotter: Buy
Short-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
Medium-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
Long-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
Overall Average 100% Buy

Chart of the Day Archive
View Past Chart of the Day Reports

Tuesday, March 20, 2012

3 Mid Cap S&P 400 stocks on the move up

This morning I used Barchart to screen the Mid Cap S&P 400 stocks to find 3 with consistent and steady upward price appreciation and found Resmed (RMD), Under Armour (UA) and The Corporate Executive Board Company (EXBD).

Resmed (RMD)

Barchart technical indicators:

96% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
14 new highs and up 9.41% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 72.78%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 31.62
Recently traded at 31.86 with a 50 day moving average of 28.91

Under Armour (UA)

Barhart technical indicators:

96% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
13 new highs and up 14.00% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 67.80%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 94.45
Recently traded at 96.51 with a 50 day moving average of 83.89

The Corporate Executive Board Company (EXBD)

Barchart technical indicators:

88% Barchart technical indicators
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
13 new highs and up 7.60% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 58.11%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 42.24
Recently traded at 42.60 with a 50 day moving average of 40.01

Barchart Morning Call 3/20

Barchart Morning Call

Barchart.com - 2 hrs 5 mins ago

Overnight Developments

Global stocks this morning are lower with the Euro Stoxx 50 down -0.91% and Jun S&Ps down -8.30 points. The dollar and Treasuries are higher and most commodities retreated on signs of an economic slowdown in China. European automakers are leading a decline in equities, with BMW AG and Daimler AG both down more than 3%; after a deputy to the secretary general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers' said total vehicle deliveries to China, forecast to grow 8% this year, may fail to increase by even 5% because of the "difficult" economy. Mining companies also sold-off with BHP Billiton, the world's biggest mining company, down 3% after it said China's steel production has slowed as it switches its focus toward consumers and away from large building projects. Limiting weakness in the euro was the +0.4% increase in Feb German producer prices, weaker than expectations of +0.5% m/m.
Asian stocks today closed mostly lower with Japan closed for holiday, China down -1.73%, Australia -0.37%, South Korea -0.22%, India +0.25%. Concerns over a slowdown in Chinese growth undercut Asian markets with energy and raw-material producers leading the declines. China's refiners are raising fuel prices for the second time in less than 6 weeks as they hiked their prices for gasoline and diesel by 7%, the biggest increase in more than 2 years, which may also slow Chinese economic output further. Chinese shipping companies also slumped after Morgan Stanley cut China's transportation industry to "underweight" due to rising oil prices. Concerns over company profits were another negative for Chinese stocks after data from China's Finance Ministry showed profits for state-owned companies fell -11% in the first 2 months of this year.

Overnight U.S. Stock News

June S&Ps this morning are trading down -8.30 points on Chinese growth concerns. The U.S. stock market Monday shook off early losses and closed higher on increased optimism in the economic outlook: Dow Jones +0.05%, S&P 500 +0.40%, Nasdaq Composite +0.75%. The S&P 500 posted a 3-3/4 year high and the Nasdaq rose to an 11-year high. Bullish factors Monday included (1) increased optimism in the economic outlook after Apple posted a record high when it reinstated its dividend and said it plans to buy back $10 billion of its stock, (2) increased M&A activity after UPS agreed to buy TNT Express for $6.8 billion, and (3) reduced liquidity concerns for European banks after the cost to borrow in dollars declined to the lowest in 7-1/2 months as the 3-month cross-currency basis swap, the rate banks pay to convert euro interest payments into dollars, fell to 58 bp below the euro interbank offered rate, the lowest since Aug 4.
Bearish factors Monday included (1) the weaker-than-expected Mar NAHB housing market index (unchanged at 28 versus expectations if +1 to 30), (2) comments from New York Fed President Dudley who said the U.S. expansion is not yet "out of the woods" as signs the U.S. economy is improving don't dispel "meaningful" risks to growth, including higher gasoline prices, fiscal cutbacks and a weak housing market, and (3) renewed Greek debt concerns after the IMF said Greece remains "accident prone" and may require further debt restructuring or additional financing from Euro-Zone countries.
Walt Disney (DIS) fell nearly 1% in European trading after the company said that its film division will report a fiscal Q2 operating loss of $80 million to $120 million as a result of the movie "John Carter."

Today's Market Focus

June 10-year T-notes this morning are up +11.5 ticks as global equities slide. T-note prices Monday relinquished early gains and slumped to a 4-1/2 month low and settled lower on reduced safe-haven demand after stocks rallied and after hawkish Fed speak from Dallas Fed President Fisher: TYM2 -21.0, FVM2 -11.0, EDU2 -0.5. The 10-year T-note yield climbed to a 4-1/2 month high of 2.388%. Bearish factors Monday included (1) reduced safe-haven demand for Treasuries as the S&P 500 posted a new 3-3/4 year high, and (2) hawkish comments from Dallas Fed President Fisher who said the U.S. economy does not need any further easing measures as "there is plenty of liquidity." Bullish factors included (1) the weaker-than-expected Mar NAHB housing market index (unchanged at 28 versus expectations if +1 to 30), (2) comments from New York Fed President Dudley who said the U.S. expansion is not yet "out of the woods" as signs the U.S. economy is improving don't dispel "meaningful" risks to growth, including higher gasoline prices, fiscal cutbacks and a weak housing market, (3) renewed European debt concerns that increased safe-haven demand for Treasuries after the IMF said Greece remains "accident prone" and may require further debt restructuring or additional financing from Euro-Zone countries, and (4) Treasury data that showed OPEC used the dollar proceeds from its crude sales to boost its holding of U.S. government debt by 20%, or $43.3 billion, to a record 258.8 billion in the 12-months ended Jan 31.
The dollar index this morning is higher with the dollar/yen +0.32 yen and the euro/dollar -0.29 cents. The dollar index Monday gave back early gains and slipped to a 1-week low and settled lower on reduced safe-haven demand after stocks rallied: Dollar Index -0.341, USD/JPY -0.108, EUR/USD +0.00669. Bearish factors included (1) dollar negative comments from New York Fed President Dudley who said the signs the U.S. economy is improving don't dispel "meaningful" risks to growth, including higher gasoline prices, fiscal cutbacks and a weak housing market, and (2) reduced safe-haven demand for the dollar after the S&P 500 posted a fresh 3-3/4 year high and on reduced liquidity concerns after the cost for European banks to borrow in dollars declined to the lowest in 7-1/2 months as the 3-month cross-currency basis swap, the rate banks pay to convert euro interest payments into dollars, fell to 58 bp below the euro interbank offered rate, the lowest since Aug 4. Bullish factors included (1) dollar supportive comments from Dallas Fed President Fisher who said the U.S. economy does not need any further easing measures as "there is plenty of liquidity," and (2) increased safe-haven demand for the dollar after IMF Managing Director Lagarde warned that high oil prices, debt levels, and the risk of slowing growth in emerging markets threaten global economic stability.
Apr crude oil prices this morning are down -75 cents a barrel and Apr gasoline is -2.10 cents per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices Monday rebounded from early losses and settled higher after the dollar weakened and equities rallied: CLJ12 +$1.03, RBJ +1.09. Apr crude posted a 1-week high and Apr gasoline climbed to a 2-week high. Bullish factors included (1) the fall in the dollar index to a 1-week low, which fuels investment demand in commodities and (2) the rally in the S&P 500 to a 3-3/4 year high, which boosts confidence in the economic outlook and energy demand. Bearish factors included (1) the statement from Saudi Arabia's cabinet that it will seek to guarantee sufficient oil supply and will work for return of a "fair" oil price for consumers and (2) concern the European debt crisis will drag on and curtail economic growth and fuel demand after the IMF warned that Greece remains "accident prone" and may require further debt restructuring or additional financing from Euro-Zone countries.

Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap): ORCL-Oracle (BEST earnings consensus $0.56), TIF-Tiffany (1.41), JBL-Jabil Circuit (0.58), CTAS-Cintas (0.52), SAI-SAIC Inc. (0.34), JEF-Jeffries Group (0.29), DSW-DSW Inc. (0.50), AIR-AAR Corp. (0.49), KKD-Krispy Kreme Doughnuts (0.06).
Global Financial Calendar

Tuesday 3/29/12
United States
0745 ET	ICSC (Int?l Council of Shopping Centers) weekly retailer sales.
0830 ET	Feb housing starts expected +0.1% to 700,000, Jan +1.5% to 699,000. Feb building permits expected +0.6% to 686,000, Jan +1.6% to 682,000.
0855 ET	Redbook weekly retailer sales.
1000 ET	Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner testifies before the House Financial Services Committee on the international finance system.
1130 ET	Weekly 4-week T-bill auction.
1245 ET	Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke delivers a lecture (1 of 4) at George Washington University School of Business on ?The Federal Reserve and its Role in Today?s Economy.?
1730 ET	Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota speaks at the Hyman P. Minsky Lecture Series at Washington University in St. Louis.
Germany
0300 ET	Feb German producer prices expected +0.5% m/m and +3.2% y/y, Jan +0.6% m/m and +3.4% y/y.
United Kingdom
0530 ET	Feb U.K. CPI expected +0.5% m/m and +3.3% y/y, Jan -0.5% m/m and +3.6% y/y. Feb core CPI expected +2.3% y/y, Jan +2.6% y/y.
0530 ET	Feb U.K. RPI expected +0.6% m/m and +3.5% y/y, Jan -0.6% m/m and +3.9% y/y. Feb RPI ex-mortgage interest payments expected +3.6% y/y, Jan +4.0% y/y.
0700 ET	Mar U.K. CBI trends total orders expected -5, Feb -3.
Euro-Zone
1000 ET	ECB Executive Board member Peter Praet delivers a speech at the University of Frankfurt on ?The Role of Central Banking in the New Institutional Framework.?
Japan
n/a	Japanese markets closed for Vernal Equinox Day.

Barchart.com provides Financial Quotes, Charts and Technical Analysis for Stock and Commodity Traders.

Simon Property Group - SPG - Barchart Chart of the Day

Barchart.coms Chart of the Day - Simon Property Group (SPG)

Barchart Research Team - Barchart.com - Mon Mar 19, 5:49PM CDT

Related Stocks

SPG - Simon Property Group

Sym	Last	Chg	Pct
SPG	143.14	-0.44	-0.31%

The "Chart of the Day" is Simon Property Group (SPG), which showed up on Monday's Barchart "All Time High" list. SPG on Monday posted a new all-time high of $144.00 and closed up 1.18%. TrendSpotter issued a new Buy signal on March 2 at $137.25. "Chart of the Day" featured Simon Property Group about two months ago with the Jan 24 close of $133.74. In recent news on the stock, Standard and Poor's announced on March 9 that Simon Property Group would be added to the S&P 100 index as of the March 16 close, replacing Alcoa. Simon Property management on March 8 raised its 2012 FFO (funds from operations) guidance to $7.35-$7.50 after recent deals, up from the previous $7.20-$7.30. Simon Property Group, with a market cap of $42 billion, is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that owns and manages income-producing properties, mainly regional malls and community shopping centers.

spg_700_01

How we found the Chart of the Day:
We found the "Chart of the Day" by scanning the Barchart "All Time High" list. In order to get to that list, we first clicked on the Stocks menu item on the Barchart home page, then on the "All Time Highs" menu item on the left menu bar. We then sorted the list by percentage gainers by clicking on the "Percent" column title. A stock that has posted a new All-Time high is typically showing strong upside momentum.
The status of Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.

TrendSpotter: Buy
Short-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
Medium-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
Long-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
Overall Average 100% Buy

Chart of the Day Archive
View Past Chart of the Day Reports

Monday, March 19, 2012

Diana Containership - DICX - deleted

Today I deleted Diana Containership - (DCIX) from the Barchart Van Meerten Speculative portfolio for negative price momentum:

Barchart technical indicators:

40% Barchart short term sell signal
Trend Spotter sell signal
Below its 20 and 50 day moving averages
53.12% off its 1 year high
Relative Strength Index 46.61%

Adcare Health Systems - ADK - sell signal

Today I deleted Adcare Health Systems (ADK) from the Barchart Van Meerten Speculative portfolio for negative price momentum:

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart short term technical sell signal
Trend Spotter sell signal
Below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
39.40% off its 1 year high
Relative Strength Index 40.00%

UIL Holdings - UIL - sell

This morning I deleted UIL Holdings (UIL) for the Barchart Van Meerten New High portfolio for negative price momentum:

Barchart technical indicators:

24% Barchart technical sell signal
Trend Spotter sell signal
Below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
4.86% off its 1 year high
Relative Strength Index 44.63%

5 Great Large-Cap S&P 500 stocks moving up

This morning I used Barchart to screen the Large Cap S&P 500 stocks to find the ones with the most steady upward price momentum and found Abbott Labs (ABT), Costco Wholesale (COST), Philip Morris (PM), Chipolte Mexican Grill (CMG) and Plum Creek Timber Company (PCL)

Abbott Labs (ABT)

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
16 new highs and up 9.67% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 78.44%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 59.30
Recently traded at 60.28 with a 50 day moving average of 56.22

Costco Wholesale (COST)

Barchart technical indicators:

96% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
15 new highs and up 6.61% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 73.77%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 88.95
Recently traded at 90.05 with a 50 day moving average of 84.50

Philip Morris (PM)

Barchart technical indicators:

96% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
15 new highs and up 5.64% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 74.08%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 85.10
Recently traded at 86.22 with a 50 day moving average of 80.03

Chipolte Mexican Grill (CMG)

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical support level
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
Relative Strength Index 80.32%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 405.31
Recently traded at 412.28 with a 50 day moving average of 376.64

Plum Creek Timber Company (PCL)

Barchart technical indicators:

96% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
14 new highs and up 7.07% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 75.52%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 41.08
Recently traded at 41.67 with a 50 day moving average of 39.49

Barchart Morning Call 3/19

Barchart Morning Call

Barchart.com - Mon Mar 19, 7:00AM CDT

Overnight Developments

Global stocks this morning are mixed with the Euro Stoxx 50 down -0.31% and Jun S&Ps down -2.40 points. Treasuries and the dollar are higher while stocks and commodities retreated on European sovereign debt concerns. The IMF said Greece remains "accident prone" and may require further debt restructuring or additional financing from Euro-Zone countries if it struggles to implement measures attached to its most recent 130 billion-euro bailout. IMF Managing Director Lagarde also warned that high oil prices, debt levels, and the risk of slowing growth in emerging markets threaten global economic stability. The euro and stocks also weakened after the CEO of PIMCO, Mohamed El-Erian, said Portugal will probably become a second Greece as its current rescue package will prove insufficient and the country will ask the Euro-Zone for more money. On the positive side, the cost for European banks to borrow in dollars declined to the lowest in 7-1/2 months as the 3-month cross-currency basis swap, the rate banks pay to convert euro interest payments into dollars, fell to 58 bp below the euro interbank offered rate, the lowest since Aug 4.
Asian stocks today closed mostly higher with Japan up +0.12%, China +0.25%, Australia +0.34%, South Korea +0.75%, India -1.10%. Most Asian stocks finished higher, although well off of their best levels, after IMF Managing Director Lagarde warned of the risk of slowing growth in emerging markets and after home prices in China posted their worst performance in a year. A rally in semiconductor stocks boosted most Asian markets after Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, the world's largest contract manufacturer of chips, said that it may raise capital spending this year amid rising demand. Chinese property developers and builders weakened as Feb China new home prices fell in 27 of 70 cities from a year earlier, the worst since the government began at the start of 2011 releasing individual data for 70 cities instead of a national average.

Overnight U.S. Stock News

June S&Ps this morning are trading down -2.40 points. The U.S. stock market Friday settled mixed after an unexpected decline in U.S. consumer confidence tempered optimism about economic growth: Dow Jones -0.15%, S&P 500 +0.11%, Nasdaq Composite -0.04%. The S&P 500 posted a 3-3/4 year high and the Dow rose to a 4-year high. Bullish factors Thursday included (1) a lack of inflation pressures after the smaller-than-expected increase in Feb core CPI (+0.1% m/m versus expectations of +0.2% m/m), (2) strength in raw material and energy producers as most commodity prices rose on optimism commodity demand will increase as the economy grows, and (3) reduced concerns about the European banking system after the Euribor-OIS spread, a measure of European banks' reluctance to lend, fell to a 7-1/2 month low of 51 bp.
Bearish factors Friday included (1) the unexpected decline in Mar U.S. University of Michigan consumer confidence (-1.0 to 74.3, weaker than expectations of +0.7 to 76.0) and (2) a slump in airline stocks as a rally in crude fueled concern that higher jet fuel costs will eat into their profit margins, and (3) the increase in the 10-year T-note yield to a 4-1/2 month high of 2.359%.
Apple (AAPL) rose 2.5% in pre-market trading on speculation the company may announce the payment of a dividend for the first time when it discusses its $97.6 billion holdings of cash and investments at a conference call later this morning.

Today's Market Focus

June 10-year T-notes this morning are up +6.5 ticks. T-note prices Friday posted a fresh 4-1/2 month low and settled lower on hawkish Fed commentary along with reduced safe-haven demand for Treasuries: TYM2 -7.5, FVM2 -3.2, EDU2 +1.5. The 10-year T-note yield rose to a 4-1/2 month high of 2.359%. Bearish factors Friday included (1) hawkish comments from Richmond Fed President Lacker who said "the economy is expanding at a moderate pace, and inflation is close to the committee's 2% objective, so as the expansion continues, the federal funds rate will need to rise in order to prevent the emergence of inflationary pressures" and (2) reduced safe-haven demand for Treasuries as the S&P 500 climbed to a new 3-3/4 year high. Bullish factors included (1) the smaller-than-expected increase in Feb core CPI (+0.1% m/m versus expectations of +0.2% m/m) and (2) the unexpected decline in Mar U.S. University of Michigan consumer confidence (-1.0 to 74.3, weaker than expectations of +0.7 to 76.0).
The dollar index this morning is higher with the dollar/yen -0.33 yen and the euro/dollar -0.12 cents. The dollar index Friday fell back and settled lower after weaker-than-expected U.S. core consumer prices reduced concern the Fed will raise interest rates along with an unexpected decline in U.S. consumer confidence: Dollar Index -0.364, USD/JPY -0.119, EUR/USD +0.00914. Bearish factors included (1) the smaller-than-expected +0.1% m/m increase in Feb core CPI, which dampens concern the Fed will raise interest rates, (2) reduced safe-haven demand for the dollar after the Euribor-OIS spread, a measure of European banks' reluctance to lend, fell to a 7-1/2 month low of 51 bp, and (3) the unexpected decline in Mar U.S. University of Michigan consumer confidence, which is dollar negative. Bullish factors included (1) dollar supportive comments from Richmond Fed President Lacker who said the Fed will need to raise interest rates sooner than 2014 to stem inflation pressures and (2) hawkish comments from ECB Council member Liikanen that boosted the euro when he said the ECB may not take further action to fight Europe's debt turmoil.
Apr crude oil prices this morning are down -38 cents a barrel and Apr gasoline is -0.94 of a cent per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices Friday settled higher as the dollar faltered and after Feb core CPI increased less than expected: CLJ12 +$1.95, RBJ +6.84. Bullish factors included (1) the weaker dollar which prompts investment demand in commodities and (2) the smaller-than-expected +0.1% m/m increase in Feb core CPI, which reduces concern the Fed will need to raise interest rates. Bearish factors included (1) the unexpected drop in Mar U.S. University of Michigan consumer confidence, which raises concern about the sustainability of the economic recovery and energy demand and (2) API data that showed total U.S. delivery of petroleum products in Feb, a measure of demand, fell -2.3% y/y to 18.4 million barrels a day, a 3-year low for the month of Feb.

Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap): ADBE-Adobe Systems (BEST earnings consensus $0.57), FMCN-Focus Media Holding Ltd. (0.62), IOC-InterOil (0.02).
Global Financial Calendar

Monday 3/19/12
United States
0835 ET	New York Fed President William Dudley speaks about the regional and national economy before the Long Island Association.
1000 ET	Mar NAHB housing market index expected +1 to 30, Feb +4 to 29.
1130 ET	Weekly 3-mo and 6-mo T-bill auctions.
Euro-Zone
0500 ET	Jan Euro-Zone current account (seasonally adjusted), Dec +2.0 billion euros.
0600 ET	Jan Euro-Zone construction output, Dec +0.3% m/m and +7.8% y/y.
1300 ET	ECB Council member Ewald Nowotny participates in a panel discussion at Vienna?s University of Economics.
Canada
0830 ET	Jan Canada wholesale sales expected +0.4% m/m, Dec +0.9% m/m.

Barchart.com provides Financial Quotes, Charts and Technical Analysis for Stock and Commodity Traders.

Ball Corp - BLL - Barchart Chart of the Day

Barchart.coms Chart of the Day - Ball Corp (BLL)

Barchart Research Team - Barchart.com - Sun Mar 18, 1:50PM CDT

Related Stocks

BLL - Ball Corp.

Sym	Last	Chg	Pct
BLL	41.65	+0.26	+0.63%

The "Chart of the Day" is Ball Corp (BLL), which showed up on Friday's Barchart "All Time High" list. Ball on Friday posted a new all-time high of $41.39 and closed up 1.87%. TrendSpotter took a profit on a long position on March 6 and then turned long again on March 13 at $40.38. In recent news on the stock, RM Baird on March 16 reiterated its Outperform rating on Ball and raised its target to $47 from $45 citing improved sales due to warmer weather and an increase in customer promotional activity. Ball Corp, with a market cap of $6 billion, is a manufacturer of metal and plastic packaging, primarily for beverages and foods, and a supplier of aerospace and other technologies and services to commercial and governmental customers.

How we found the Chart of the Day:
We found the "Chart of the Day" by scanning the Barchart "All Time High" list. In order to get to that list, we first clicked on the Stocks menu item on the Barchart home page, then on the "All Time Highs" menu item on the left menu bar. We then sorted the list by percentage gainers by clicking on the "Percent" column title. A stock that has posted a new All-Time high is typically showing strong upside momentum.
The status of Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.

TrendSpotter: Buy
Short-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
Medium-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
Long-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
Overall Average 100% Buy

Chart of the Day Archive
View Past Chart of the Day Reports