Great Week -- W/E 9/24

This was a very good week in the market.  How good was it?  Let's go to Barchart and get our data for the 3 yard sticks I use at the end of every week to see where we really stand.  3 yard sticks are used because no single one tells me everything I'd like to know.

Value Line Index -- Contains 1700 stocks so it's broader than the S&P 500 or very narrow Dow 30 -- Nice upward price momentum

• Barchart 80% buy signal
• New highs in 11 of the last 20 session
• Up 2.58% for the week
• Up 11.36% for the last month
• 14 day Relative Strength Index is 63.56% and rising
• Closed Friday at 2487.87 above its 50 day moving average of 2362.65

Barchart Market Momentum -- Contains approximately 6000 stocks -- The percentage of stocks closing above their Daily Moving Averages for various time periods -- Above 50% is good -- This week was great

• Friday over 81.68% closed above their 20 DMA, over 80.49% closed above their 50 DMA, over 74.39% closed above their 100 DMA
• Last week over 78.97% closed above their 20 DMA. over 72.86% closed above their 50 DMA, over 66.78% closed above their 100 DMA
• Last month only 26.50% closed above their 20 DMA, only 41.52% closed above their 50 DMA, only 38.32% closed above their 100 DMA

Ratio of stock hitting new highs/new lows for various time periods -- Above 1.0 Bullish, 1.0 Neutral, below .99 Bearish -- Very Bullish this week

• 1 month new highs/new lows -- 1199/109 = 11.00
• 3 month new highs/new lows -- 629/55 = 11.44
• 6 month new highs/new lows -- 321/42 = 7.64

Summary and Investment Strategy --  This week the upward momentum was very robust and showed no weaknesses.  During the coming week I'll continue to trim from my portfolios those stocks that the rally has left behind and won't be afraid to replace them as long as the momentum continues.

Jim Van Meerten is an advisor to Marketocracy Capital Management who uses his model portfolios not only to manage their mutual funds but also their clients Separately Managed Accounts. You can read his blogs about those model portfolios and investing here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.





Disclosure: Jim Van Meerten through Marketocracy Capital Management has an interest in the stocks mentioned in this blog.

Sanofi-Aventis - SNY

This morning I added Sanofi-Aventis (SNY) to the Barchart Van Meerten New High portfolio  They are a global pharmaceutical company that contributes to enhance life by providing medicines, vaccines, and integrated health care solutions adapted to local needs and means primarily in Europe and the United States. The company is engaged in the research, development, manufacture and marketing of health care products. Its strategy is built around three priorities to reach its goals and ensure sustainable growth. The priorities are: increasing innovation in Research and Development, adapting Group structures to future challenges and seizing external growth opportunities. Sanofi-Aventis specializes in six therapeutic areas: thrombosis, cardiovascular, metabolic disorders, oncology, central nervous system (CNS) and internal medicine. The Company offers vaccines in five areas: pediatric combination vaccines, influenza vaccines, adult and adolescent booster vaccines, meningitis vaccines, and travel and endemic vaccines. Sanofi-Aventis is headquartered in Paris, France.

Two of the drugs they produce are two of the most widely marketed drugs on the planet.  The A/H1N1 flu vaccine and Plavix.  I can't watch an evening of TV without seeing several Plavix commercials.  Since I had my flu shot my cravings for corn and mud baths are now under control.

The stock is on a recent climb with 19 new highs in 20 session for a 19.82% price gain last month.  Barchart has a 96% buy signal with the stock trading around 33.95 above its 50 day high of 30.27.  The stock has a 76.93% 14 day Relative Strength Index and is rising.

General investor sentiment is high with the CAPS members on Motley Fool voting 882 to 41 that the stock will beat the market and the All Stars are in agreement 329 to 11.  The Wall Street columnists that Fool follows had 14 positive articles on the stock.

Their major markets of the US and Europe means they are marketing in an area of both public and private health care that can afford their products.  With all the recent interest in flu vaccines and diabetes drugs this stock should be a winner.

Jim Van Meerten is an advisor to Marketocracy Capital Management who uses his model portfolios not only to manage their mutual funds but also their clients Separately Managed Accounts. You can read his blogs about those model portfolios and investing here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs. Please leave a comment below or email mailto:JimVanMeerten@gmail.com




Disclosure: Jim Van Meerten through Marketocracy Capital Management has an interest in the stocks mentioned in this blog.

One bad Apple can ruin your whole barrel of stocks

Apple (AAPL) is a stock that everyone seems to have an opinion about.  If there is anyone on the planet that hasn't heard of Apple the company designs, manufactures and markets personal computers and related personal computing and communicating solutions for sale primarily to education, creative, consumer, and business customers.

I once heard Mrs.Fields say she didn't sell cookies, she sold warm memories of your childhood and the smells coming from your Grandma's kitchen.  To say Apple is a computer company also isn't enough.  When I go to the mall and pass the Apple store the place is packed and everyone, young and old is standing in a line to get a hands on experience.

All other companies just produce lap tops, computers and PCs -- Apple produces MACs and I-Pods and all sort of devices with wonderful sounding names that you've just got to have before anyone else has one.  Other companies are just the present; Apple has the mistique of being the future.

OMG have the Apple worms crawled in my ears and are now controlling my mind like they've done to all the other cult members?  Is there any way I can plug my ears to the songs of the Apple sirens and write an honest and objective view of this stock?

Let's get the popular stuff out of the way.  To say Apple has a following is an understatement.  On Motley Fool the CAPS members vote 22,413 to 2,018 that the stock will beat the market and the All Stars are similarly in a trance by a vote of 4,787 to 236.  Even the Wall Street columnists Fool follows have written positive articles 46 to 0.

The Wall Street brokerages are not immune to the hype.  There are 43 firms with published recommendations and their analysts have 25 strong buy and 22 buy reports published.  For you math buffs I know that doesn't sound right but several of the firms have the stock classified in multiple categories and have more than one analyst following it.  The consensus estimates are very aggressive with sales expected to increase 73.60% this year and 24.70% next year.  Earnings per share are expected to increase 59.10% this year, 21.90% next year and continue at a 20.19% annual rate for at least 5 years.

Even the old staid and very objective Value Line thinks the stock is a timely acquisition for your portfolio.

Let's step back and look at raw numbers using Barchart.  I note that there are 12 of the 13 Barchart technical indicators on a buy signal for an overall 96% buy rating.  The stock hit 19 new highs in the last 20 sessions including 5 in the last 5.  Last month alone the price climbed 17.75% and recently traded at 288.62 well above its 50 day moving average of 258.20.  The 14 day Relative Strength Index is 80.79% and rising.

For those of you who follow my blogs you know I try to be objective and not follow the crowd.  Just because Citi is one of the most widely traded and reported stock has not swayed me into buying that dog.  Here with Apple it looks like the real deal.  Here's what its got:

• The stock has a very wide an positive following by the general investing public
• Wall Street brokerage analysts have released buy recommendations based on solid fundamentals and expect high double digit increases in sales and earnings
• Wall Street columnists are giving the stock strong and positive press coverage
• Barchart confirms recent positive and consistent upward price momentum.

I can't find anything not to like about the stock except one thing.  It is in almost every ones buy list and is contained in almost all the recommended model portfolios.  Except for some very narrow sector mutual funds it must be owned by an over whelming majority of every pension plnn and mutual fund in the known free world.  And that's the butterfly in my stomach.  If the sales or earnings estimates are not met the mass exodus will be worse than the panic caused by fire crackers at a South American soccer match.

If I were an investor in this stock I'd also buy some puts for insurance. This is a stock where sell stop just won't protect you.

Jim Van Meerten is an advisor to Marketocracy Capital Management who uses his model portfolios not only to manage their mutual funds but also their clients Separately Managed Accounts. You can read his blogs about those model portfolios and investing here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.

Disclosure: Jim Van Meerten through Marketocracy Capital Management has an interest in the stocks mentioned in this blog.

Suburban Propane MLP - SPH

I've added Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. (SPH) to the Barchart Van Meerten New High portfolio. They are a publicly traded Delaware limited partnership engaged, through subsidiaries, in the retail and wholesale marketing of propane and related appliances and services. The Partnership believes it is the third largest retail marketer of propane in the United States. Suburban Propane Partners serves active residential, commercial, industrial and agricultural customers from customer service centers in over 40 states. The Partnership's operations are concentrated in the east and west coast regions of the United States.

This is not the propane company in Arlen, Texas and Hank doesn't work there. For those of you who don't live in the US propane users are a captive market. Propane is used for cooking and heating in homes plus many industrial users that are usually rural and far from the natural gas pipelines as well as in many portable appliances.

The stock is on a move with a 96% overall Barchart buy signal. The stock hit new highs in 19 of the last 20 sessions and has moved up 11.21% in the last month. The stock has a 14 day Relative Strength index of 76.01% and recently traded at 53.72 well above its 50 day moving average of 49.71.

This is basically a utility stock and should recover nicely. Wall Street brokerages have 5 buy reports published based on projections of increased sales and earnings for the next 5 years and a safe dividend coverage.

The general investor has noticed this stock and on Motley Fool the CAPS members voted 252 to 15 that the stock will out perform the market and the All Stars agree 97 to 3.

If you'd like a stock that is enjoying capital appreciation and still pays a 6.8% dividend while you wait this could be the stock for you.

Jim Van Meerten is an advisor to Marketocracy Capital Management who uses his model portfolios not only to manage their mutual funds but also their clients Separately Managed Accounts. You can read his blogs about those model portfolios and investing here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.

Disclosure: Jim Van Meerten through Marketocracy Capital Management has an interest in the stocks mentioned in this blog.

Alliance Fiber Optics - AFOPD

I have deleted Alliance Fiber Optics (AFOPD) from the Barchart Van Meerten Speculative portfolio for poor price performance:

• 60% short term Barchart sell signal
• Trend Spotter (tm) sell signal
• Price loss of 9.44% last month
• 14 day Relative Strength Index 45.84% and falling

Ultra Silver ETF - AGQ - added

I added ProShares Ultra Silver ETF (AGQ) to the Van Meerten New High portfolio, The ETF seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to twice (200%) the daily performance of silver bullion as measured by the U.S. Dollar fixing price for delivery in London. This is a pure price play on the prices of precious metals and will be sold if it doesn't pan out.

If I look at the general sentiment as measured on Motley Fool the CAPS members think the ETF will outperform the market by a vote of 92 to 51 with the All Stars in similar agreement with a vote of 36 to 25. Not an overwhelming vote but positive none the less.

I'm really looking at the technicals over on Barchart. The 13 technical indicators give a 96% buy signal with the ETF moving up in 17 of the last 20 sessions. The ETF recently traded at 74.78 well above its 50 day moving average of 62.91. The price has moved up 30.10% in the last month and has a Relative Strength Index of 72.06% and rising.

Jim Van Meerten is an advisor to Marketocracy Capital Management who uses his model portfolios not only to manage their mutual funds but also their clients Separately Managed Accounts. You can read his blogs about those model portfolios and investing here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.

Disclosure: Jim Van Meerten through Marketocracy Capital Management has an interest in the stocks mentioned in this blog.

Broadridge Financial Solutions -- BR - added

I added Broadridge Financial Solutions (BR) to the Barchart Van Meerten New High portfolio. They are a leading global provider of technology-based outsourcing solutions to the financial services industry. Their integrated systems and services include investor communication, securities processing, and clearing and outsourcing solutions. Broadridge offers a broad, integrated suite of innovative global solutions across the investment lifecycle and provides a wide range of cost-effective and scalable solutions to the financial industry. Their systems help reduce the need for clients to make significant capital investments in operations infrastructure, thereby allowing them to increase their focus on core business activities.

Although Wall Street brokerages only have 1 buy recommendation published it is based on an estimate of an increase in sales and in earnings per share of 10.00% annually for the next 5 years.

The stock has recent upward price movement with 18 new highs in the last 20 sessions including 5 of the last 5. Barchart has an overall 96% technical buy signal with the stock trading around 23.18 well above its 50 day moving average of 20.97. The price appreciated 15.54% last month with a 14 day Relative Strength Index of 79.27%.

What drew me to the stock was the very positive general investor sentiment with the CAPS members on Motley Fool betting the stock will beat the market by a vote of 220 to 9 with the All Stars even more positive with a vote of 83 to 0. The Wall Street columnists Fool follows have written 5 positive articles about it.

The stock has:

• Positive price movement with Barchart technical indicators looking good
• Wall Street brokerages looking for increased sales and earnings
• Very positive investor sentiment
• Wall Street columnists writing positive articles

Jim Van Meerten is an advisor to Marketocracy Capital Management who uses his model portfolios not only to manage their mutual funds but also their clients Separately Managed Accounts. You can read his blogs about those model portfolios and investing here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.

Disclosure: Jim Van Meerten through Marketocracy Capital Management has an interest in the stocks mentioned in this blog.

Is Verizon on your horizon?

I added Verizon Communications (VZ) to the Barchart Van Meerten New High portfolio. The company was formed by the merger of Bell Atlantic and GTE and is one of the world's leading providers of high-growth communications services. Verizon companies are the largest providers of wire line and wireless communications in the United States. Verizon is also the world's largest provider of print and on-line directory information.

At the present time the company is on an acquisition and consolidation plan that should eventually mean so -- I can't believe I'm using this term " synergism " t0 their far flung operations. Fewer people, less redundancy hopefully more sales and earnings per share.

Wall Street brokerages have 13 buy reports published and look for increased sales and earnings and over time a 5.96% annual growth rate for at least 5 years.

This is one of the most widely followed stocks by the general investing public and over on Motley Fool 4067 CAPS members voted the stock will beat the market to only 262 that think it won't. The more experienced All Stars voted 1050 to 37. Fool notes that of the Wall Street columnists they follow all 32 of the articles have been positive.

The stock has recent price momentum with 18 new highs in the last 20 session including all of the last 5. Barchart has a 100% technical buy signal with the stock trading at 31.19 well above its recent 50 day moving average of 29.03. The stock appreciated 8.89% last month and has a 14 day Relative Strength Index of 78.54% and rising.

This stock has:

• Wall Street brokerages looking for increased sales and earnings
• A very wide and positive investor following
• Recent price movement with all technical indicators on Barchart very positive.

Jim Van Meerten is an advisor to Marketocracy Capital Management who uses his model portfolios not only to manage their mutual funds but also their clients Separately Managed Accounts. You can read his blogs about those model portfolios and investing here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.

Disclosure: Jim Van Meerten through Marketocracy Capital Management has an interest in the stocks mentioned in this blog..