Weekly Market Recap

I've got to swear off reading all the financial news and following all the talking heads on CNBC, Bloomberg and Fox Business news.  By the end of the week I'm so confused about what happened and why, that my head is just spinning.  Each weekend I use Barchart to mine the data that tells me what happened and how I should plan my next week.  I use 3 different yard sticks that each measure the market's momentum but each does it in a slightly different way.  I feel good when all 3 point in the same direction as they do this week.  Let's take a look.

Value Line Index -- Contains 1700 stocks so its broader than the S&P 500 or the very narrow Dow 30 -- Looks good this week

• 96% Barchart technical buy signal
• Index up 1.14% for the week
• Index up 8.41% for the last month
• Closed Friday above its 20, 50 and 100 daily moving averages
• 14 day Relative Strength Index is 65.85% and rising

Barchart Market Momentum -- Contains approximately 6000 stocks -- Percentage of stocks closing above their Daily Moving Averages for various time frames -- Above 50% is always good

• Friday over 79.44% closed above their 20 DMA, over 82.13% closed above their 50 DMA, over 77.98 closed above their 100 DMA
• Last week over 81.54 closed above their 20 DMA, over 80.39% closed above their 50 DMA, over 74.08% closed above their 100 DMA
• Last month over 68.70% closed above their 20 DMA, over 64.41% closed above their 50 DMA, over 52.52% closed above their 100 DMA

Ratio of stocks hitting new highs/new lows for various time frames -- 1.0+ bullish, 1.0 neutral, below .99 bearish -- Bulls have it this week

• 1 month ratio of new highs/new lows -- 1062/149 = 7.13
• 3 month ration of new highs/new lows -- 620/47 = 6.39
• 6 month ratio of new highs/new lows -- 305/35 = 8.71

Summary and Investment Strategy -- The Conference Board says the economy is recovering and, all 3 of my yard sticks say the market currently has upward momentum.  During the coming week I'll cut stocks that aren't performing in an upward manner and be confident that I can replace them in this rising market.

Jim Van Meerten is an advisor to Marketocracy Capital Management who uses his model portfolios not only to manage their mutual funds but also their clients Separately Managed Accounts. You can read his blogs about those model portfolios and investing here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.


Disclosure: Jim Van Meerten through Marketocracy Capital Management has an interest in the stocks mentioned in this blog.

Oil services are hot

Schlumberger Limited (SLB)  is a global technology services company consisting of two business segments, Schlumberger Oilfield Services and Schlumberger Sema. Schlumberger Oilfield Services is the leading provider of exploration and production services, solutions and technology to the international petroleum industry. Schlumberger Sema is a leading information technology services company providing a unique combination of domain expertise and global capabilities delivered on a local basis.

One of the nice things about an oil services company is that they are less effected by oil prices or oil profits.  The lead time for their projects are longer and micro events have less impact on them.

This company, though hurt by the Gulf slowdown has major operations in Russia and on land US plus major growth markets in Brasil and Iraq.  They are the world wide leader in their sector.

The recent price momentum cannot be ignored and the covering of short interest is a very good sign.  On 8/13 short interest was over 58 million shares and in the recent 9/15 reporting period had dropped to only 17 million shares.  The stock has gone higher in 10 of the recent 20 trading session including an increase of 13.21% in the last month.  Barchart has a 100% overall technical buy signal and the stock traded recently around 61.61 which is above its 50 day moving average.  The stock is consistently trading above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages and has a 14 day Relative Strength Index of 91.37%.

Wall Street brokerages consider SLB as a core holding and have 11 strong buy, 20 buy, 4 hold and no negative reports published.  They look for double digit increases in sales and earnings.  A sales increase this year of 17.80% and next year of 37.30% is predicted.  Earnings are expected to increase 35.00% this year and continue at an annual rate of 15.97% for at least 5 years.

The general investor sentiment as measured on Motley Fool is wide and positive.  The CAPS members vote 2.699 to 75 that the stock will beat the market with the All Stars voting 724 to 15 for the same price direction.  Wall Street columnists have been positive in their articles 24 to 1.

I like this stock because:

• Short interests have recently declined
• Wall Street is very positive and is pushing this stock as a core holding for all their clients
• There is a wide and positive general investor sentiment
• Most of all, the recent price momentum is positive and very consistent

Jim Van Meerten is an advisor to Marketocracy Capital Management who uses his model portfolios not only to manage their mutual funds but also their clients Separately Managed Accounts. You can read his blogs about those model portfolios and investing here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.

Disclosure: Jim Van Meerten through Marketocracy Capital Management has an interest in the stocks mentioned in this blog.

Could Monsanto be in for a fall?

Could Monsanto (MON) be in for a fall?  Has it over promised and under performed?  Monsanto is a leading global provider of technology-based solutions and agricultural products for growers and downstream customers, such as grain processors and consumers, in the agricultural markets. The combination of its herbicides, seeds and related genetic trait products provides growers with integrated solutions to more efficiently and cost effectively produce crops at higher yields, while controlling weeds, insects and diseases. Its base business, led by Roundup and coupled with the latest tools in biotechnology, genomics and molecular breeding.

First let me say that the stock has a great following on both Wall Street and the general investing public.  Let's look at the facts.  Deep discounting of prices by competitors and wold wide depressed demand in agricultural products have caused depressed sales and earnings figures.

Barchart has a 72% technical sell signal and the stock is trading below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages.  The stocks recent price of 48.01 is well below its 50 day moving average of 56.39.  The stock lost 14.02% in just the last 5 days alone.  The 14 day Relative Strength Index is only 27.87% and tanking.

One technical note is that short interest is increasing and volume is falling.  A bad short term sign.

At this time I'd sell present positions or place a short term short but be prepared to cover if the price trend reverses.

Jim Van Meerten is an advisor to Marketocracy Capital Management who uses his model portfolios not only to manage their mutual funds but also their clients Separately Managed Accounts. You can read his blogs about those model portfolios and investing here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.




Disclosure: Jim Van Meerten through Marketocracy Capital Management has an interest in the stocks mentioned in this blog.

Gas doesn't have to be embarrasing - XOM

Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) is a big company with big profits and a big following.  Their principal business is energy, involving exploration for, and production of, crude oil and natural gas, manufacturing of petroleum products and transportation and sale of crude oil, natural gas and petroleum products. XOM is a major manufacturer and marketer of basic petrochemicals, including olefins, aromatics, polyethylene and polypropylene plastics and a wide variety of specialty products. XOM is engaged in exploration for, and mining and sale of coal, copper and other minerals.

I look at XOM as a triple play.  Since they purchased XTO, one of the largest natural gas companies they have a triple whammy in oil, natural gas and plastics.  If natural gas prices recover and industries complete their planned conversions to NG some good profits could fall to the bottom line.

Buying XOM is almost like buying an energy commodity ETF but better.  The stock came under my notice when it recently hit 10 new highs in the last 20 sessions and earned a 100% Barchart technical buy signal.  This behemoth went up 5.42% in the last month and recently traded around 62.19 well above its 50 day moving average of 60.75.  The stock has a 14 day Relative Strength Index that is 61.43% and still rising.

For a stock this big the Wall Street brokerage firms have some aggressive increases in sales and earnings projected.  The analysts have 9 buy and 10 hold reports published and predict sales will increase 22.60% this year and 10.60% next year.  The EPS projections are even better with projected increases of 43.10% for this year, 10.30% next year and a 5 year annual growth rate of 11.87% expected.

I like that short interest is shrinking.  The smart money was shorting 98 million shares back on 5/14 and that has dropped to only 33 million shares recently.  That's a good sign when short shares keep getting covered.

This big company has a big following and general investor interest is high.  On Motley Fool the CAPS members vote 7,294 to 482 that the stock will beat the market and the All Stars agree 1,668 to 76.   Articles on the stock were positive 26 to 3.

My thinking is that as the world economies recover they will consume more energy making XOM's world wide position in oil, natural gas and plastics a good place to be positioned.

My buy points are:

• Great world wide placement in energy and plastic in a recovering economy
• Recent price appreciation in 50% of the last 20 trading sessions
• Wall Street analysts still recommending accumulation based on double digit projections of increases in sales and earnings
• A wide and positive general investor interest.

Jim Van Meerten is an advisor to Marketocracy Capital Management who uses his model portfolios not only to manage their mutual funds but also their clients Separately Managed Accounts. You can read his blogs about those model portfolios and investing here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.

Disclosure: Jim Van Meerten through Marketocracy Capital Management has an interest in the stocks mentioned in this blog.

Smart Modular Technologies - SMOD - added

I added Smart Modular Technologies (SMOD) to the Barchart Van Meerten Speculative portfolio.  Smart is a leading independent designer, manufacturer and supplier of value added subsystems to original equipment manufacturers, or OEMs. Its subsystem products include memory modules, embedded computing subsystems and thin film transistor liquid crystal display, or TFT-LCD, products which it offers to customers worldwide. It success is derived from a customer-focused approach characterized by a commitment to quality, advanced technical expertise, fast time-to-market, build-to-order flexibility and high quality customer service.

The stock hit 17 new highs in the last 20 session including 5 in the last 5.  The price has increased 28.83% last month and trades around 6.22 well above its 50 day moving average of 5.37.  The 14 day Relative Strength Index is 70.54% and still rising.

I want you to look at these Wall Street brokerages projections of sales and earning increases -- they are not typos.  There are 5 buy reports published and the consensus on sales increases are 56.20% this year and 24.90% next year.  Hold on to your hat for a 1925.00% increase in EPS this year, 14.50% next year and a 5 year annual compounded growth rate of 21.50% for the next 5 years.

Fools like this stock with the Motley Fool CAPS members voting 322 to 20 and the All Stars voting 115 to 3 that the stock will beat the market.. articles about the stock are positive 10 to 1.

Jim Van Meerten is an advisor to Marketocracy Capital Management who uses his model portfolios not only to manage their mutual funds but also their clients Separately Managed Accounts. You can read his blogs about those model portfolios and investing here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.


Disclosure: Jim Van Meerten through Marketocracy Capital Management has an interest in the stocks mentioned in this blog.

Hickory Tech - HTCO - added

I added Hickory Tech (HTCO) to the Barchart Van Meerten Speculative portfolio. They are a diversified communications company engaged in operating four incumbent local exchange carriers (ILECs). This business consists of connecting customers to the telephone network, providing switched service and dedicated private lines, connecting customers to long distance service providers and providing many other services commonly associated with ILECs. Additionally, they undertook business start up initiatives in long distance, internet access and competitive local exchange carrier businesses.

Barchart gives this one a 96% buy signal after 17 new highs in 20 sessions including 5 in the last 5.  The stock increase 7.68% last month and trades around 8.41 which is above its 50 day moving average of 7.92.  The stock has a Relative Strength Index of 70.59% and is still rising.

Although Wall Street has modest projections for increases in sales and earnings the general investor sentiment on Motley Fool is positive with the CAPS members voting 49 to 3 and the All Stars voting 18 to 1 that the stock will beat the market.

Jim Van Meerten is an advisor to Marketocracy Capital Management who uses his model portfolios not only to manage their mutual funds but also their clients Separately Managed Accounts. You can read his blogs about those model portfolios and investing here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.


Disclosure: Jim Van Meerten through Marketocracy Capital Management has an interest in the stocks mentioned in this blog.

PMACA - PMA Capital - added

I added PMA Capital Corp (PMACA) to the Barchart Van Meerten Speculative portfolio. They are an insurance holding company. The company operates in two principal segments, property and casualty reinsurance through PMA Reinsurance Corporation, and workers' compensation and standard property and casualty primary insurance. PMA Re emphasizes risk-exposed, excess of loss reinsurance and operates in the domestic brokered market. The Property and Casualty Group offers workers' compensation products and services and certain other standard lines of commercial insurance.

The stock has a 96% Barchart buy signal and hit 17 new highs in the last 20 sessions.  The price is up 10.76% in the last month with a recent price of 7.48 which is above its 20 day moving average of 6.94.  The stock has a Relative Strength Index of 72.91%.

Wall Street has 2 buy reports published with projections of a 7.70% revenue increase next year and EPS growth of 9.90% next year and an annual EPS growth rate of 7.50% for the next 5 years.

Investor sentiment has the CAPS members on Motley Fool voting 25 to 2 that the stock will beat the market and the All Stars vote 7 to 1.  Fool notes that the last 5 articles on the company were positive.

Jim Van Meerten is an advisor to Marketocracy Capital Management who uses his model portfolios not only to manage their mutual funds but also their clients Separately Managed Accounts. You can read his blogs about those model portfolios and investing here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs. Please leave a comment below or email mailto:emailJimVanMeerten@gmail.com


Disclosure: Jim Van Meerten through Marketocracy Capital Management has an interest in the stocks mentioned in this blog.

Vonage Holdings - VG - added

I added VONAGE HOLDINGS CORP (VG) to the Barchart Van Meerten Speculative portfolio. They are a leading provider of digital phone services with over two million subscriber lines. Their award-winning technology enables anyone to make and receive phone calls with a touch tone telephone almost anywhere a broadband Internet connection is available. They offer feature-rich and cost-effective communication services that offer users an experience similar to traditional telephone services.The Residential Premium Unlimited and Small Business Unlimited calling plans offer consumers unlimited local and long distance calling, and popular features like call waiting, call forwarding and voicemail - for one low, flat monthly rate. Vonage's service is sold on the web and through national retailers including Best Buy, Circuit City, Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target and is available to customers in the U.S., Canada and the United Kingdom.

Barchart has a 100% overall buy signal.  The stock hit 19 new highs in 20 sessions including 5 in the last 5.  The price has appreciated 27.09% last month and trades around 2.57 far above its 50 day moving average of 2.20.  The 14 day Relative Strength Index is 68.40% and rising.

The analyst that follows the stock looks for a 5 year annual EPS growth of 10.00%.

Jim Van Meerten is an advisor to Marketocracy Capital Management who uses his model portfolios not only to manage their mutual funds but also their clients Separately Managed Accounts. You can read his blogs about those model portfolios and investing here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.

Disclosure: Jim Van Meerten through Marketocracy Capital Management has an interest in the stocks mentioned in this blog.

Theravance - THRX - added

I added Theravance Inc (THRX) to the Barchart Van Meerten New High portfolio.  They are focused on the discovery, development and commercialization of small molecule medicines for unmet medical needs across a number of therapeutic areas including respiratory disease, bacterial infections, overactive bladder and gastrointestinal disorders.

The stock hit 19 new highs in the last 20 sessions with a 51.29% price increase last month alone.  Barchart has a 96% buy signal. The stock trades around 19.41 far above its 50 day moving average of 15.24.  The 14 day Relative Strength Index is 80.57% and rising.

The stock doesn't have a wide following but it is positive with the CAPS members on Motley Fool voting 64 to 29 that the stock will beat the market and the All Stars agree 25 to 11.  Fool notes that the last 9 Wall Street columnists' articles have been positive.

The brokerage firms have 5 buy recommendations published based on a consensus of sales increases of 13.00% this year and 35.30% next year.  The earnings per share are expected to increase 12.60% this year, 6.50% next year and maintain a 34.70% annual  EPS growth rate for at least 5 years.

The major 3 criteria re met:

• Recent and positive price momentum
• A positive investor sentiment
• Wall Street buy report based on double digit projections of increases in sales and earnings

Jim Van Meerten is an advisor to Marketocracy Capital Management who uses his model portfolios not only to manage their mutual funds but also their clients Separately Managed Accounts. You can read his blogs about those model portfolios and investing here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs. Please leave a comment below or email mailto:JimVanMeerten@gmail.com



Disclosure: Jim Van Meerten through Marketocracy Capital Management has an interest in the stocks mentioned in this blog.

Costco - COST - added

I added Costco Wholesale Corp (COST) to the Barchart Van Meerten New High portfolio.  They operate membership warehouses based on the concept that offering members very low prices on a limited selection of nationally branded and selected private label products in a wide range of merchandise categories will produce high sales volumes and rapid inventory turnover. This rapid inventory turnover enables Costco to operate profitably at significantly lower gross margins than traditional wholesalers, discount retailers and supermarkets.

Lower prices of merchandise have effected their revenue.  Transactions have been up 5% year over year but the discounting of prices has hurt revenue growth.  The best news is that their membership renewal rate of 87.5% is one of the highest in the industry.

Short sellers are running for the door.  On 5/14 short interest was 6.7 million share and on 9/15 short interest had dropped to only 3.5 million shares; that's a drop of almost half and should be a good sign in any ones book.  Much of the reason for the short interests having to cover can be attributed to the share price increase.

Share price was up 15.04% in the last month alone with the stock hitting 19 new highs in the last 20 sessions including 4 in the last 5.  Barchart's technical indicators give the company a 96% over all buy signal with the current price around 64.65 well above its 50 day moving average of 58.04.  The 14 day Relative Strength Index is 79.91% and rising.

Wall Street loves this stock with 16 of the 21 brokerages following the company recommending their clients buy this stock.  The buy reports are based on their estimates that the sales will increase by 9.10% this year and 6.60% next year.  The double digit earnings projections are increases of 13.20% this year, 11.30% next year and a 5 year annual EPS growth rate of 12.79%.  That's pretty impressive.

The general investor is optimistic also with the CAPS members on Motley Fool voting 3,823 to 148 that the stock will beat the market with the All Star members in agreement by a vote of 1,233 to 34.

The stock has everthing I look for:

• Recent upward price momentum with a falling short interest
• Wall Street brokerages issuing buy reports based on increases in sales and double digit earnings growth for at least 5 years
• General investor sentiment wide and over whelmingly positive.

Jim Van Meerten is an advisor to Marketocracy Capital Management who uses his model portfolios not only to manage their mutual funds but also their clients Separately Managed Accounts. You can read his blogs about those model portfolios and investing here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.


Disclosure: Jim Van Meerten through Marketocracy Capital Management has an interest in the stocks mentioned in this blog.

Telephone and Data Systems - TDA - deleted

I have deleted Telephone and Data Systems (TDA) from the Barchart Van Meerten Speculative portfolio for poor price momentum and :

• 60% Barchart short term sell signal
• Trading below its 20 and 50 daily moving averages
• 14 day Reletoive Price Strength Index 43.80% and falling

Isei-Bfc - BIN - deleted

I have deleted Iesi-Bfc Ltd (BIN) from bot the Barchart Van Meerten New High and Barchart Van Meerten Speculative portfolios for downward price momentum and:

• 60% Barchart short term sell signal
• Trend Spotter (tm) sell signal
• Trading below its 20 & 50 daily moving averages
• Lost 5.41% last week
• 14 day Relative Strength Index is 39.05% and falling

Jim Van Meerten is an advisor to Marketocracy Capital Management who uses his model portfolios not only to manage their mutual funds but also their clients Separately Managed Accounts. You can read his blogs about those model portfolios and investing here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.




Disclosure: Jim Van Meerten through Marketocracy Capital Management has an interest in the stocks mentioned in this blog.