MORNING CALL 11/23

MORNING CALL

Monday, November 23rd, 2015View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ15 -0.01%) are down -0.14% and European stocks are down -0.36% after weekend comments from San Francisco Fed President Williams that there's a "strong case" for a Fed rate hike next month sparked a sell-off in commodity prices. Crude oil (CLF16 +0.62%) is down-1.74%, which undercut energy and raw material producers, while the price of copper (HGZ15 -1.44%) dropped -1.95% to a fresh 6-1/2 year low, which also pressured mining stocks with Freeport McMoRan and BHP Billiton both down nearly 2%. U.S. stock futures rebounded from their worst levels on increased M&A activity after Pfizer and Allergan announced that they will merge in a deal valued at over $150 billion. Losses in European stocks were contained after the Eurozone Nov Markit composite PMI expanded at its fastest pace in 4-1/2 years. Asian stocks settled mixed: Japan closed for holiday, Hong Kong -0.39%, China -0.56%, Taiwan +0.24%, Australia +0.39%, Singapore -0.49%, South Korea +0.46%, India -0.19%.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.14%) is up +0.30% at a 7-1/4 month high after comments from San Francisco Fed President Williams bolstered the case for a Fed rate hike next month. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.20% at a 7-1/4 month low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.30%.

Dec T-note prices (ZNZ15 -0.21%) are down -7 ticks.

San Francisco Fed President Williams said there's a "strong case" for a Federal Reserve interest rate increase in December assuming U.S. economic data continues to be encouraging.

The Eurozone Nov Markit composite PMI rose +0.5 to 54.4, stronger than expectations of +0.1 to 54.0 and the fastest pace of expansion in 4-1/2 years.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Oct Chicago Fed national activity index (expected +0.45 to 0.08, Sep +0.02 to -0.37), (2) preliminary Nov Markit manufacturing PMI (expected -0.1 to 54.0, Oct +1.0 to 54.1), (3) Oct existing home sales (expected -2.7% to 5.40 million, Sep +4.7% to 5.55 million), and (4) the Treasury's auction of $26 billion 2-year T-notes.

There are 7 of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: Tyson Foods (consensus $0.88), Jacobs Engineering (0.77), GameStop (0.59), Mallinckrodt (1.76), Copart (0.43), Brocade Communications (0.24), Palo Alto Networks (0.32).

U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: Adnina Acquisition Corp II (ANDAU).

Equity conferences this week include: J.P. Morgan Asia Rising Dragons One-on-One Forum on Mon-Tue, INTERGAS VII Oil, Gas & Petrochemicals Conference & Exhibition on Wed.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Freeport McMoRan (FCX -1.90%) and Royal Gold (RGLD -2.99%) are both down nearly 2% in pre-market trading as metals prices plunged in early trade on Monday, with Dec copper falling to a fresh 6-1/2 year low.

Tyson Foods (TSN -1.82%) reported Q4 EPS of 83 cents, below consensus of 88 cents.

Chipolte Mexican Grill (CMG -12.32%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Sterne Agee CRT.

Novartis (NVS -0.25%) was cut to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Vontobel.

Kellog (K -0.33%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Neutral' at Credit Suisse with a price target of $76.

Allergan Plc (AGN +3.45%) is up over 5% in pre-market trading on speculation that Pfizer may acknowledge, as soon as today, a deal that it will acquire the company in an agreement worth more than $150 billion.

Panerea Bread (PNRA +0.20%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Maxim Group with a 12-month price target of $210.

Hewlett Packard (HPQ +1.96%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Maxim Group with a 2-month price target of $17.

Peabody Energy (BTU -4.65%) will sell New Mexico and Colorado coal assets for $358 million to Bowie Resource Partners LLC, which will also assume $105 million in liabilities.

Novacure (NVCR -1.65%) jumped over 10% in after-hours trading after Phase 3 data showed brain cancer patients who were treated with its Tumor Treating Fields therapy lived longer than patients who received chemotherapy alone.

TerraForm Power (TERP +9.65%) rose over 1% in after-hours trading after BlueMountain Capital raised its stake in the company to 10.1% from 7.3%.

MARKET COMMENTS

Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ15 -0.01%) this morning are down -3.00 points (-0.14%). Friday's closes: S&P 500 +0.38%, Dow Jones +0.51%, Nasdaq +0.67%. The S&P 500 on Friday posted a 2-week high and closed higher on ECB President Draghi's indication that the ECB may expand stimulus when it meets next month when he said the ECB will do what's necessary to raise inflation "as quickly as possible." In addition, there were upbeat comments from St. Louis Fed President Bullard who said that U.S. financial conditions have improved and the probability for a hard landing in China's economy has not risen.

Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ15 -0.21%) this morning are down -7 ticks. Friday's closes: TYZ5 -3.50, FVZ5 -1.75. Dec T-notes on Friday rallied to a 2-week high but erased their gains and closed lower. T-note prices were undercut by the rally in the S&P 500 to a 2-week high, which reduced the safe-haven demand for T-notes. T-notes were also undercut by the rise in the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation expectations rate to a 2-1/2 month high.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.14%) this morning is up +0.302 (+0.30%) at a 7-1/4 month high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0021 (-0.20%) at a 7-1/4 month low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.37 (+0.30%). Friday's closes: Dollar Index +0.576 (+0.58%), EUR/USD -0.0088 (-0.82%), USD/JPY -0.06(-0.05%). The dollar index on Friday closed higher on St. Louis Fed President Bullard's comment that the probabilities of an end to zero interest rates in the U.S. "have increased." In addition, there was weakness in EUR/USD sparked by ECB President Draghi's suggestion that the ECB will expand QE at the Dec 3 ECB meeting when he said that policy makers will do what they must to raise inflation "as quickly as possible."

Jan crude oil (CLF16 +0.62%) this morning is down -73 cents (-1.74%) and Jan gasoline (RBF16 +1.59%) is down -0.0025 (-0.20%). Friday's closes: CLF6 +0.18 (+0.43%), RBF6 -0.0008 (-0.06%). Jan crude oil and gasoline on Friday settled mixed. Metals were boosted by the rally in the S&P 500 to a 2-week high, which bolsters confidence in the economic outlook and energy demand, and by expectations for U.S. oil production to fall after Baker Hughes reported that active U.S. oil rigs fell by 10 rigs in the week ended Nov 20 to a 5-1/3 year low of 564 rigs. Crude prices were undercut by the stronger dollar and the ongoing crude oil supply glut with U.S. crude supplies over 100 million bbl above the seasonal 5-year average.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR11/23/2015

US	0830 ET	Oct Chicago Fed national activity index expected +0.45 to 0.08, Sep +0.02 to -0.37.
	0945 ET	Preliminary Nov Markit manufacturing PMI expected -0.1 to 54.0, Oct +1.0 to 54.1.
	1000 ET	Oct existing home sales expected -2.7% to 5.40 million, Sep +4.7% to 5.55 million.
	1100 ET	USDA weekly grain export inspections.
	1300 ET	Treasury auctions $26 billion 2-year T-notes.
	1500 ET	USDA Oct Cold Storage.
	1600 ET	USDA weekly crop progress.
GER	0330 ET	German Nov Markit/BME manufacturing PMI expected -0.1 to 52.0, Oct 52.1. Nov Markit services PMI expected -0.1 to 54.4, Oct 54.5.
EUR	0400 ET	Eurozone Nov Markit manufacturing PMI expected unch at 52.3. Nov Markit composite PMI expected +0.1 to 54.0, Oct 53.9.
JPN	2035 ET	Japan Nov Nikkei manufacturing PMI, Oct 52.4.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR11/23/2015

Company	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Jacobs Engineering Group Inc	JEC US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	0.772
GameStop Corp	GME US	Bef-mkt	Q3 2016 Earnings Release	Q3 2016	0.593
Mallinckrodt PLC	MNK US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	1.763
Tyson Foods Inc	TSN US	7:30	Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	0.881
Mallinckrodt PLC	MNK US	8:30	Q4 2015 Earnings Call	Q4 2015
Tyson Foods Inc	TSN US	9:00	Q4 2015 Earnings Call	Q4 2015
Jacobs Engineering Group Inc	JEC US	11:00	Q4 2015 Earnings Call	Q4 2015
GameStop Corp	GME US	11:00	Q3 2016 Earnings Call	Q3 2016
Palo Alto Networks Inc	PANW US	16:30	Q1 2016 Earnings Call	Q1 2016
Copart Inc	CPRT US	Aft-mkt	Q1 2016 Earnings Release	Q1 2016	0.426
Brocade Communications Systems Inc	BRCD US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	0.244
Palo Alto Networks Inc	PANW US	Aft-mkt	Q1 2016 Earnings Release	Q1 2016	0.318
Brocade Communications Systems Inc	BRCD US	17:30	Q4 2015 Earnings Call	Q4 2015

BARCHART MORNING CALL 7/8

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Wednesday, July 8th, 2015View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

September E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 -0.75%) are down -0.65% on concern that a sell-off in Chinese stocks will spread across the globe. European stocks are up +0.87% on optimism that the ECB will be able to contain fallout from the Greek debt crisis after ECB Governing Council member Visco said that the ECB is ready to use all means at its disposal in the Greek financial crisis. European leaders on Tuesday ordered Greece to accept a rescue package by Sunday or face expulsion from the Eurozone. Weakness in European automakers is limiting gains in the overall market after China Jun passenger-vehicle sales dropped for the first time in more than 2 years. Asian stocks closed sharply lower: Japan -3.14%, Hong Kong -5.84%, China -5.90%, Taiwan -2.96%, Australia -2.00%, Singapore -1.67%, South Korea -1.25%, India -1.72%. The rout on Chinese stocks continued today with the Shanghai Composite falling to a fresh 3-1/2 month low as government measures to arrest the slide have so far proven ineffective. The sell-off in Chinese shares has spread throughout Asia with Japan's Nikkei Stock Index falling to a 1-1/2 month low.
Commodity prices are mixed. Aug crude oil (CLQ15 +0.52%) is up +0.71%, Aug gasoline (RBQ15 +1.78%) is up +1.79%. Metals prices are mixed. Aug gold (GCQ15 +0.32%) is up +0.08%. Sep copper (HGU15 -0.18%) is down -0.10% at a fresh 6-year low. Agricultural prices are weaker.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.28%) is down -0.180 (-0.19%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0006 (+0.05%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.89 (-0.73%) at a 1-1/2 month low.

Sep T-note prices (ZNU15 +0.06%) are up +1.5 ticks at a 5-week high as the slump in stocks boosts the safe-haven demand for Treasuries.
Investors trying to get out of Chinese stocks have found that 1,331 companies, or 72% of stocks on mainland exchanges have halted trading as trading curbs make it impossible to sell the stocks. Another 747 companies fell by their 10% limit on Wednesday as buyers were nowhere to be found. That suggests that today's 5.9% plunge in the Shanghai Composite Index was understated. Actions taken by the government thus far have been unable to stabilize the market as the Shanghai Composite has fallen 32% from its 7-1/3 year high on Jun 12.
China Jun passenger-vehicle sales fell -3.2% y/y to 1.43 million units, the first decline in more than 2 years.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) weekly MBA mortgage applications (last week -4.7% with purchase sub-index -4.1% and refi sub-index -5.2%), (2) the Treasury's auction of $21 billion of 10-year T-notes, (3) the minutes of the Jun 16-17 FOMC meeting, (4) a speech by San Francisco Fed President John Williams on the economic outlook to the International Conference of Commercial Bank Economists in Los Angeles, (5) May consumer credit (expected +$18.5 billion after April's +$20.541 billion), and (6) EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
One of the Russell 1000 companies reports earnings today: Alcoa (consensus $0.23).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today include: Clovis Oncology (CLVS).
Equity conferences this week: none.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Navistar (NAV -1.53%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at BB&T.
Harley-Davidson (HOG +0.37%) was downgraded to 'Sector Perform' from 'Outperform' at RBC Capital.
Reuters reported that JPMorgan Chase (JPM -0.79%) agreed to pay at least $125 million to settle probes that the bank sought to improperly collect and sell consumer credit card data.
W. R. Berkley (WRB +1.80%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Goldman Sachs.
Advance Auto Parts (AAP +0.07%) will replace Family Dollar (FDO +0.05%) in the S&P 500 as of the close of trading today.
St. Jude Medical (STJ +1.38%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at Wells Fargo.
Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS +0.13%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'In-Line' at Imperial Capital.
Rolls-Royce (RYCEY -5.32%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Outperform' at Exane BNP Paribas.
Pearson (PSO -0.16%) was downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Hold' at Berenberg.
Tourbillon reported a 14.9% passive stake in Green Plains Partners (GPP +1.39%) .
Vanda Pharmaceuticals (VNDA -1.91%) announced that the European Commission approved its Hetlioz drug for the treatment of Non-24-Hour Sleep-Wake Disorder in totally blind adults in the European Union.
Novartis' (NVS +0.56%) Entresto drug was approved by FDA for treatment of heart failure.
Gilder, Gagnon, Howe & Co. reported a 13.18% passive stake in Papa Murphy's (FRSH +3.15%) .

MARKET COMMENTS

September E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 -0.75%) this morning are down -13.50 points (-0.65%). Tuesday's closes: S&P 500 +0.61%, Dow Jones +0.53%, Nasdaq +0.243%. The S&P 500 on Tuesday recovered from a 3-1/2 month low and closed higher on supportive factors including hopes that a Greek bailout agreement will be reached by Sunday and the unexpected +29,000 increase in U.S. May JOLTS job openings to 5.363 million, stronger than expectations of 5.300 million and the most since the data series began in 2000. Bearish factors included a plunge in European stocks to a 5-1/2 month low on Grexit concerns and weakness in commodity producers after crude oil dropped to a 3-month low and copper sank to a 5-month low.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU15 +0.06%) this morning are up +1.5 ticks at a new 5-week high. Tuesday's closes: TYU5 +11.50, FVU5 +4.75. Sep T-notes on Tuesday rallied to a 5-week high on (1) safe-haven concerns sparked by Grexit and the Chinese stock market melt-down, and (2) reduced inflation concerns as a plunge in commodity prices pushed the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation rate down to a 3-week low.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.28%) this morning is down -0.180 (-0.19%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0006 (+0.05%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.89 (-0.73%) at a 1-1/2 month low. Tuesday's closes: Dollar Index -0.118 (-0.12%), EUR/USD -0.00446 (-0.40%), USD/JPY -0.036 (-0.03%). The dollar index on Tuesday fell back from a 5-week high and closed lower on reduced safe-haven demand after a recovery in U.S. stocks. The dollar posted a 5-week high early in the session on signs of strength in the U.S. labor market that may push the Fed to raise interest rates after U.S. May JOLTS job openings rose to their highest since the data began in 2000.
Aug WTI crude oil (CLQ15 +0.52%) this morning is up +37 cents (+0.71%). Aug gasoline (RBQ15 +1.78%) is up +0.0348 (+1.79%). Tuesday's closes: CLQ5 -0.68 (-1.28%), RBQ5 +0.0257 (+1.32%). Aug crude oil and gasoline Tuesday settled mixed. Crude oil fell to a 3-month low on (1) the EIA's hike in its 2015 U.S. crude production estimate to 9.47 million bpd from a 9.43 million bpd estimate last month, and (2) speculation that a nuclear deal with Iran may be imminent, which would pave the way for at least a doubling of Iranian oil exports.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR07/08/2015

US	0700 ET	Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous -4.7% with purchase sub-index -4.1% and refi sub-index -5.2%.
	1030 ET	EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
	1300 ET	Treasury auctions $21 billion of 10-year T-notes.
	1400 ET	Minutes of the Jun 16-17 FOMC meeting.
	1400 ET	San Francisco Fed President John Williams speaks on the economic outlook to the International Conference of Commercial Bank Economists in Los Angeles.
	1500 ET	May consumer credit expected +$18.5 billion, Apr +$20.541 billion.
JPN	0030 ET	Japan Jun bankruptcies, May -13.18% y/y.
	0100 ET	Japan Jun eco-watchers survey current expected -0.3 to 53.0, May 53.3. Jun eco-watchers survey outlook expected -0.5 to 54.0. May 54.5
	1950 ET	Japan May machine orders expected -4.9% m/m and +16.7% y/y, Apr +3.8% m/m and +3.0% y/y.
EUR	0500 ET	ECB Executive Board member Benoit Coeure speaks on The International Role of the Euro at an event in Frankfurt.
UK	1901 ET	UK Jun RICS house price balance, May 34%.
CHI	2130 ET	China Jun CPI expected +1.3% y/y, May +1.2% y/y. China Jun PPI expected -4.6% y/y, May -4.6% y/y.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR07/08/2015

Company	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Alcoa Inc	AA US	17:00	Q2 2015 Earnings Call	Q2 2015
United Continental Holdings Inc	UAL US	17:00	June 2015 Sales and Revenue Release - Operational Performance	2015
Alcoa Inc	AA US	Aft-mkt	Q2 2015 Earnings Release	Q2 2015	0.226
Costco Wholesale Corp	COST US	Aft-mkt	June 2015 Sales and Revenue Release	2015
Advance Auto Parts Inc	AAP US	Aft-mkt	Advanced Auto Parts Inc. Replaces Family Dollar Stores in S&P 500
Advance Auto Parts Inc	AAP US	Aft-mkt	Jack in the Box Replaces Advanced Auto Parts in S&P MidCap 400
Healthcare Trust of America Inc	HTA US		Annual General Meeting

BARCHART MORNING CALL 1/26

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Monday, January 26th, 2015View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

March E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 -0.26%) this morning are down -0.34% after Greek opposition party Syriza won in Sunday's election. European stocks, however, shook off early losses and are up +0.18% after Syriza leader Tsipras pledged to keep Greece within the Eurozone as he negotiates a write-down of Greek debt. European stocks also received a boost after a gauge of German business confidence rose more than expected to the highest in 6 months. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan -0.25%, Hong Kong +0.24%, China +1.02%, Taiwan +0.07%, Australia and India closed for holiday, Singapore -0.38%, South Korea -0.07%. Commodity prices are mostly lower. Mar crude oil (CLH15 -1.07%) is down -1.14% at a 1-1/2 week low. Mar gasoline (RBH15 -1.19%) is down -1.33%. Feb gold (GCG15 -0.87%) is down -1.10%. Mar copper (HGH15 -1.16%) is down -1.06% at a 5-1/2 year low after the dollar index climbed to an 11-1/3 year high and on signs of increasing supplies after LME copper inventories rose +1,700 MT to 236,850 MT, the most in 8-3/4 months. Agriculture prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.20%) is up +0.24% at an 11-1/3 year high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.18%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.37%. Mar T-note prices (ZNH15 +0.04%) are down -1 tick.
The German Jan IFO business climate rose +1.2 to 16.7, better than expectations of +1.0 to 106.5 and the highest in 6 months. The Jan IFO current assessment rose +1.9 to 111.7, stronger than expectations of +0.8 to 110.8. Jan IFO expectations rose +0.7 to 102.0, less than expectations of +1.4 to 102.5.
The Japan Dec trade balance shrink to a -660.7 billion yen deficit from an upward revised -893.5 billion yen deficit in Nov, a smaller deficit than expectations of -735.2 billion yen and the smallest deficit in 1-1/2 years. Dec exports rose +12.9% y/y, better than expectations of +11.2% y/y and the most in a year. Dec imports rose +1.9% y/y, slightly less than expectations of +2.0% y/y.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

There are no major U.S. economic reports today. There are 9 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today: Microsoft (0.75), Texas Instruments (0.69), Seagate (1.35), DR Horton (0.34), Roper Industries (1.79), Norfolk Souther (1.64), WW Grainger (2.83), Plum Creek Timber (0.34), Zions Bancorp (0.42). Equity conferences this week include: Phacilitate Immunotherapy Forum on Mon-Wed, and PCC 2015. CBI's Pharmaceutical Compliance Congress on Tue.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

LyondellBasell (LYB -0.75%) and Westlake (WLK -0.90%) were both downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill Lynch.
United Parcel Service (UPS -9.91%) was downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Macquarie.
Unilever (UL +1.19%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Underperform' at BofA/Merrill Lynch.
Roper Industries (ROP -0.35%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.85, higher than conensus of $1.79.
DR Horton (DHI -2.49%) reporteed Q1 EPS of 39 cents, better than consensus of 34 cents.
Endo (ENDP -1.44%) will replace (COV +1.52%) Covidien in theS&P 500 as of today's close.
Knight Transportation (KNX +0.30%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at KeyBanc.
Amici Capital reported a 6.78% passive stake in Uroplasty (UPI -20.38%) .
HCA Holdings (HCA -2.50%) will replace Safeway (SWY unch) in the S&P 500 as of the close of trading today.
Salient Capital Advisors reported a 5.74% passive stake in NGL Energy Partners (NGL -0.45%) .
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved Bexsero, a vaccine from Novartis (NVS +0.03%) to prevent invasive meningococcal disease.
Van Berkom & Associates reported a 9.41% passive stake in RE/MAX Holdings (RMAX -0.65%) .
Point72 Asset reported a5.2% passive stake in ZELTIQ (ZLTQ -0.79%) .

MARKET COMMENTS

Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 -0.26%) this morning are down -7.00 points (-0.34%). The S&P 500 index on Friday retreated from a 1-1/2 week high and closed lower: S&P 500 +1.53%, Dow Jones +1.48%, Nasdaq +1.87%. Bearish factors included (1) the +2.4% increase in U.S. Dec existing home sales to 5.04 million, weaker than expectations of +3.0% to 5.08 million, and (2) weakness in transportation stocks after UPS tumbled when it reported weaker-than-expected 2014 earnings. Stocks had opened higher on carry-over support from a rally in European stocks to a 6-1/3 year high on optimism the ECB’s quantitative easing program will spur economic growth in the Eurozone.
Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH15 +0.04%) this morning are down -1 tick. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices on Friday closed higher. Closes: TYH5 +17.50, FVH5 +8.50. Bullish factors included (1) carry-over support from a rally in European bonds that sent the 10-year German bund yield down to a record low of 0.345%, and (2) increased safe-haven demand for T-notes after stocks erased an early rally and closed lower.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.20%) this morning is up +0.228 (+0.24%) at a new 11-1/3 year high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0020 (+0.18%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.44 (+0.37%). The dollar index on Friday rose to an 11-1/3 year high and closed higher: Dollar index +0.685 (+0.73%), EUR/USD -0.01615 (-1.42%), USD/JPY -0.745 (-0.63%). Bullish factors included (1) the fall in EUR/USD to an 11-1/3 year low on negative carry-over from ECB’s QE announcement on Thursday, and (2) Greek sovereign debt concerns on speculation the anti-austerity Syriza party would win Sunday’s election in Greece.
Mar WTI crude oil (CLH15 -1.07%) this morning is down 52 cents (-1.14%) and Mar gasoline (RBH15 -1.19%) is down -0.0182 (-1.33%). Mar crude oil and Mar gasoline on Friday settled mixed with Mar crude at a 1-week low: CLH5 -0.72 (-1.55%), RBH5 +0.0156 (+1.15%). Bearish factors included (1) the rally in the dollar index to an 11-1/3 year high, and (2) comments from Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, the new Saudi Arabian king, that he will maintain the current Saudi crude oil policy of refusing to cut production. Crude prices recovered from their worst levels and gasoline closed higher on signs of global economic growth after the China Jan HSBC flash manufacturing PMI and the Eurozone Jan Markit manufacturing PMI both rose more than expected.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR01/26/2015

US	1030 ET	Jan Dallas Fed outlook of manufacturing activity expected -0.1 to 4.0, Dec -6.4 to 4.1.
	1100 ET	USDA weekly grain export inspections.
GER	0400 ET	German Jan IFO business climate expected +1.0 to 106.5, Dec 105.5. Jan IFO current assessment expected +1.0 to 110.8, Dec 109.8. Jan IFO expectations expected +1.1 to 102.5, Dec 101.4.
JPN	1850 ET	Japan Dec PPI services expected +3.6% y/y, Nov +3.6% y/y.
CHI	2030 ET	China Dec industrial profits, Nov -4.2% y/y.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR01/26/2015

Company	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Seagate Technology PLC	STX US	Bef-mkt	Q2 2015 Earnings Release	Q2 2015	1.348
DR Horton Inc	DHI US	7:00	Q1 2015 Earnings Release	Q1 2015	0.344
Roper Industries Inc	ROP US	7:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	1.792
WW Grainger Inc	GWW US	7:30	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
Norfolk Southern Corp	NSC US	8:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	1.638
WW Grainger Inc	GWW US	8:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	2.83
Roper Industries Inc	ROP US	8:30	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
Norfolk Southern Corp	NSC US	8:45	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
Seagate Technology PLC	STX US	9:00	Q2 2015 Earnings Call	Q2 2015
DR Horton Inc	DHI US	10:00	Q1 2015 Earnings Call	Q1 2015
Texas Instruments Inc	TXN US	16:30	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	0.691
Plum Creek Timber Co Inc	PCL US	17:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
Plum Creek Timber Co Inc	PCL US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	0.335
Microsoft Corp	MSFT US	Aft-mkt	Q2 2015 Earnings Release	Q2 2015	0.749
Zions Bancorporation	ZION US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	0.424
Texas Instruments Inc	TXN US	17:30	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
Microsoft Corp	MSFT US	17:30	Q2 2015 Earnings Call	Q2 2015
Zions Bancorporation	ZION US	17:30	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014

BARCHART MORNING CALL 12/26

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Friday, December 26th, 2014View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

March E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 +0.14%) this morning are up +0.14%, although European stock markets remained closed for the Christmas holiday and the U.K. markets are shut for Boxing Day. The Russian ruble posted a 3-week high against the dollar before falling back on speculation the government is ordering exporters to sell foreign currency. Asian stocks closed mostly higher: Japan +0.06%, China +3.31%, Hong Kong and Australia closed for holiday, Taiwan +0.60%, Singapore +0.23%, South Korea -0.01%, India +0.12%. Japanese stocks closed higher on speculation the BOJ may be forced to expand stimulus after Japan Nov CPI rose at the slowest pace in 8 months and after Nov industrial production unexpectedly declined. Chinese stocks gained on reports the PBOC plans to waive temporarily a requirement for banks to set aside reserves for some deposits. Commodity prices are mostly higher. Feb crude oil (CLG15 +0.64%) is up +0.70%. Feb gasoline (RBG15 +0.68%) is up +0.61%. Feb gold (GCG15 +1.99%) is up +2.05%. Mar copper (HGH15 +0.04%) is down -0.05% after weekly Shanghai copper inventories rose +12,693 MT to a 4-1/2 month high of 105,522 MT, a sign of weak Chinese demand. Agriculture prices have not yet opened. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.05%) is up +0.12%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.27%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.16%. Mar T-note prices (ZNH15 +0.02%) are up +1 tick.
Japan Nov national CPI rose +2.4% y/y, less than expectations of +2.5% y/y and the slowest pace of increase in 8 months. Nov national CPI ex-fresh food climbed +2.7% y/y, right on expectations, and Nov national CPI ex food & energy rose +2.1% y/y, right on expectations.
The Japan Nov jobless rate remained unchanged at 3.5%, right on expectations. The Nov job-to-applicant ratio unexpectedly rose +0.02 to 1.12, better than expectations of unch at 1.10 and the highest in 22-1/2 years.
Japan Nov industrial production unexpectedly fell -0.6% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.8% m/m. On an annual basis Nov industrial production fell -3.8% y/y, more than expectations of -2.4% y/y and the most in 17 months.
Japan Nov retail sales unexpectedly fell for a second month as it slid i0.3% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m. On an annual basis Nov retail sales rose +0.4% y/y, less than expectations of +1.1% y/y.
Japan Nov overall household spending fell -2.5% y/y, less than expectations of -3.6% y/y, but still the ninth consecutive month of year-over-year declines.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

There are no U.S. economic reports today.  There is only one of the the Russell 3000 companies that reports earnings today:  Turtle Beach Corp.  There are no equity conferences this week.  

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

The International Council of Shopping Centers reports that early retail estimates show the best holiday sales in 3 years.
Novartis (NVS +0.71%) announced that the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare approved its drug Cosentyx for the treatment of both psoriasis vulgaris and psoriatic arthritis.
DigiTimes reports that Sony (SNE +2.21%) is set to launch a large-size tablet in Q1 of 2015 that will sell for more than $1000.
Bloomberg reports that the New York Supreme Court rejected Credit Suisse's (CS -0.04%) attempt to block a lawsuit seeking $10 billion in damages from the NY Attorney General accusing the bank of fraud in sales of mortgage-backed securities.
Citigroup (C +0.22%) announced that it has reached a definitive agreement to sell its retail banking business in Japan to Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation.
The Biotechnology Value Fund reported a 6.29% passive stake in Sophiris Bio (SPHS +4.55%) .

MARKET COMMENTS

Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 +0.14%) this morning are up +3.00 points (+0.14%). The S&P 500 index on Wednesday posted a fresh record high but fell back on profit-taking and closed little changed: S&P 500 -0.01%, Dow Jones +0.03%, Nasdaq +0.09%. Supportive factors included (1) the unexpected decline in weekly initial unemployment claims by -10,000 to 280,000, better than expectations of +1,000 to 290,000 and the lowest in 7 weeks, and (2) optimism that momentum in the U.S. economy can be sustained with the Fed’s promise to be patient on raising interest rates along with the recent plunge in crude to a 5-1/2 year low, which has reduced gasoline prices and should give consumer spending a boost.
Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH15 +0.02%) this morning are up +1 tick. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices on Wednesday slipped to a 2-week low and closed lower: TYH5 -1.50, FVH5 -0.50. Bearish factors included (1) the unexpected decline in U.S. weekly initial unemployment claims to the lowest level in 7 weeks, and (2) the rally in the S&P 500 to a new record high, which curbed safe-haven demand for Treasuries.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.05%) this morning is up +0.106 (+0.12%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0033 (-0.27%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.19 (+0.16%). The dollar index on Wednesday closed slightly lower. Closes: Dollar index -0.097 (-0.11%), EUR/USD +0.00023 (+0.02%), USD/JPY -0.209 (-0.17%). Bearish factors included (1) profit-taking and long liquidation after the dollar index posted an 8-1/2 year high on Tuesday, and (2) reduced safe-haven demand for the dollar with the rally in stocks.
Feb WTI crude oil (CLG15 +0.64%) this morning is up +39 cents (+0.70%) and Feb gasoline (RBG15 +0.68%) is up +0.0094 (+0.61%). Feb crude and Feb gasoline prices on Wednesday closed lower with Feb gasoline at a contract low. Closes: CLG5 -1.27 (-2.22%), RBG5 -0.0561 (-3.54%). Bearish factors included (1) the unexpected +7.27 million bbl surge in weekly EIA crude supplies to a 6-month high of 387.21 million bbl, more than expectations for a -2.5 million bbl draw, (2) the +4.08 million bbl jump in EIA gasoline stockpiles to a 9-1/2 month high of 226.1 million bbl, and (3) the increase in crude supplies at Cushing, OK, the delivery point of WTI futures, for a third week as they climbed +973,000 bbl to a 9-month high of 28.8 million bbl.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR12/26/2014

US	n/a	No government reports or Fed speakers scheduled.
CHI	2030 ET	China Nov industrial profits, Oct -2.1% y/y.
EUR	n/a	European markets closed for Christmas holiday.
UK	n/a	UK markets closed for Boxing Day.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR12/26/2014

Company	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Turtle Beach Corp	HEAR US		Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014

BARCHART MORNING CALL 6/9

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Monday, June 9th, 2014View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 -0.12%) this morning are down -0.08% and European stocks are down -0.02% after a gauge of European investor confidence unexpectedly declined to the lowest level in 6 months. U.S. Jun mini-S&P stock futures had posted a new record high and European stocks climbed to a 5-3/4 year high after Chinese May exports rose more than expected. Italian and Spanish 10-year government bond yields fell to record lows and Portugal's 10-year yield dropped to an 8-year low on expectations for the ECB to remain extremely accommodative. Spanish and Italian bank stocks were higher after JPMorgan Chase recommended buying Banco Popular Espanol SA, saying lenders in the Eurozone's most-indebted countries would benefit from the ECB's measures to combat inflation. Asian stocks closed mostly higher: Japan +0.31%, Hong Kong +0.73%, China -0.02%, Taiwan +0.31%, Australia closed for holiday, Singapore +0.17%, South Korea -0.34%, India +0.72%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index posted a 2-3/4 month high after Japan Q1 GDP was revised higher to its fastest pace of expansion in over 2 years. Commodity prices are mixed. July crude oil (CLN14 +0.66%) is up +0.60%. July gasoline (RBN14 +0.54%) is up +0.50%. Aug gold (GCQ14 +0.30%) is up +0.30%. July copper (HGN14 -0.77%) is down -0.75% at a 1-month low. Agriculture prices are lower. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.18%) is up +0.11%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.15%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.03%. Sep T-note prices (ZNU14 -0.19%) are down -5.5 ticks.
The China May trade balance widened to a surplus of +$35.92 billion, more than expectations of +$22.60 billion and the largest surplus in 5-1/3 years. May exports rose +7.0% y/y, better than expectations of +6.7% y/y, while May imports unexpectedly fell -1.6% y/y, weaker than expectations of +6.0% y/y.
The Eurozone Jun Sentix investor confidence unexpectedly fell -4.3 to 8.5, weaker than expectations of +0.5 to 13.3 and the lowest in 6 months.
ECB Executive Board member Coeure said that "the ECB will keep rates close to zero for an extremely long period" as monetary conditions diverge between the Eurozone and in the U.S. and UK where a cycle of rate rises are expected.
UK May Lloyds employment confidence rose +3 to 4, the highest since the data series began in 2004.
Japan May consumer confidence rose +2.3 to 39.3, better than expectations of +0.5 to 37.5.
The Japan May eco watchers survey outlook climbed +3.5 to 53.8, better than expectations of +1.7 to 52.0. The May eco watchers survey current rose +3.5 to 45.1, better than expectations of +3.4 to 45.0.
Japan Q1 GDP was revised higher to +1.6% q/q and +6.7% q/q annualized, higher than the previously reported +1.4% q/q and +5.6% q/q annualized and the fastest pace of expansion since Q3 of 2011.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

This week’s U.S. economic schedule is relatively light with key reports including Thursday’s May retail sales report (expected +0.6% headline and +0.4% ex-autos), Friday’s May PPI (expected +2.4% vs +2.1% in April), and Friday’s early-June U.S. consumer confidence index (expected +1.1 to 83.0). The Treasury will sell $62 billion of 3-year, 10-year and 30-year securities this Tuesday through Thursday. None of the Russell 1000 companies report earnings today.
Equity conferences this week include: Bloomberg Next Big Thing Summit on Mon, E3 2014 Video-Game Industry Conference - Press Briefing on Mon, Goldman Sachs European Financials Conference on Tue, Harbor's Aluminum Outlook Summit on Tue, Morgan Stanley Financials Conference on Tue-Wed, Piper Jaffray Consumer Conference on Tue-Wed, Goldman Sachs Global Healthcare Conference on Tue-Thu, William Blair Growth Stock Conference on Tue-Thu, Credit Suisse Future of Payments & Commerce Conference on Wed, Goldman Sachs North American Energy Summit on Wed, Mexico Capital Projects & Infrastructure Summit on Wed, 2nd Annual Mexico Capital Projects & Infrastructure Summit on Wed-Thu, Morgan Stanley Leveraged Finance Conference on Wed-Thu, Drexel Hamilton Aerospace and Defense Conference on Thu, and Robert W. Baird & Co. Inc. Utility & Infrastructure Symposium on Thu.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Merck (MRK -0.43%) acquires Idenix (IDIX +4.03%) for $24.50 per share in cash or $3.85 billion.
Sempra Energy (SRE -0.40%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at ISI Group.
Principal Financial Group (PFG +1.45%) was upgraded to 'Equal Weight' from 'Underweight' at Morgan Stanley.
Capital One (COF +1.23%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Nomura.
J.M. Smucker (SJM +1.32%) was upgraded to 'Market Perform' from 'Underperform' at Wells Fargo.
Novartis (NVS +0.34%) was upgraded to 'Equalweight' from 'Underweight' at Barclays.
Dollar General (DG +0.52%) rose 4% in after-hours trading after Icahn said he may push for a merger between Dollar General and Family Dollar.
Family Dollar (FDO +0.70%) jumped over 6% in after-hours trading after billionare investor Carl Icahn reported a 9.39% stake in the company.
The FDA approved Biogen Idec's (BIIB -0.81%) Eloctate, Antihemophilic Factor, Fc fusion protein, for use in adults and children who have Hemophilia A.
Emancipation Capital reported a 5.8% passive stake in I.D. Systems (IDSY +2.30%) .
Reid Walker reported a 9.0% stake in Superior Drilling (SDPI -3.86%) .

MARKET COMMENTS

June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 -0.12%) this morning are down -1.50 points (-0.08%). The S&P 500 index on Friday rallied to a new record high and closed higher. Bullish factors included (1) the +217,000 increase in U.S. May non-farm payrolls, slightly more than expectations of +215,000, (2) the unchanged May unemployment rate at a 5-1/2 year low of 6.3%, better than expectations of +0.1 to 6.4%, and (3) optimism in the global economy after the Bundesbank raised its German 2014 GDP forecast to +1.9% from a Dec estimate of +1.7%. Closes: S&P 500 +0.46%, Dow Jones +0.52%, Nasdaq +0.47%.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU14 -0.19%) this morning are down -5.5 ticks. Sep 10-year T-note futures prices on Friday erased an early rally and closed lower. T-notes had gained on carry-over support from strength in German bunds which rallied to a 1-week high. T-notes fell back and closed lower on reduced safe-haven demand after the S&P 500 climbed to a new record high and after the U.S. May unemployment rate remained unch at a 5-1/2 year low. Closes: TYU4 -5.00, FVU4 -4.50.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.18%) this morning is up +0.087 (+0.11%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0020 (-0.15%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.03 (-0.03%). The dollar index on Friday recovered from a 1-week low and closed higher after U.S. May payrolls were slightly stronger than expected. Dollar gains were limited after the S&P 500 rose to a record high, which reduced safe-haven demand for the dollar. Closes: Dollar Index +0.038 (+0.05%), EUR/USD -0.0019 (-0.14%), USD/JPY +0.043 (+0.04%).
July WTI crude oil (CLN14 +0.66%) this morning isup +62 cents (+0.60%). July gasoline (RBN14 +0.54%) is up +0.0148 (+0.50%). July crude and gasoline prices on Friday settled mixed. Supportive factors for crude included (1) the unchanged U.S. May unemployment rate at a 5-1/2 year low of 6.3%, which suggest labor market strength that may lead to improved fuel demand, and (2) the Bundesbank’s hike in its German 2014 GDP forecast, which signals stronger energy demand. Crude prices fell back from their best levels after the dollar index rebounded from a 1-week low and closed higher. Closes: CLN4 +0.18 (+0.18%) RBN4 -0.0173 (-0.59%).

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR06/09/2014

US	0910 ET	St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speaks on the U.S. economic outlook to the Tennessee Bankers Association annual meeting.
	1100 ET	USDA weekly grain export inspections.
	1330 ET	Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren delivers keynote speech at the Banco de Guatemalas XXIII Cycle of Economic Lectures in Guatemala City.
	1600 ET	USDA weekly crop progress.
JPN	0030 ET	Japan May bankruptcies, Apr +1.66% y/y.
	0100 ET	Japan May consumer confidence expected +0.6 to 37.6, Apr 37.0.
	0200 ET	Japan May eco watchers survey current expected +3.4 to 45.0, Apr 41.6. May eco watchers survey outlook expected +1.7 to 52.0, Apr 50.3.
	1950 ET	Japan Apr tertiary industry index expected -3.5% m/m, Mar +2.4% m/m.
EUR	0430 ET	Eurozone Jun Sentix investor confidence expected +0.5 to 13.3, May 12.8.
UK	0430 ET	UK May Lloyds employment confidence, Apr 1.
	1901 ET	UK May BRC sales like-for-like expected +1.6% y/y, Apr +4.2% y/y.
CHI	2130 ET	China May CPI expected +2.4% y/y, Apr +1.8% y/y. May PPI expected -1.5% y/y, Apr -2.0% y/y.
	n/a	China May new yuan loans expected +750.0 billion yuan, Apr +774.7 billion yuan.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR06/09/2014

Company Name	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Netflix Inc	NFLX US	13:00	Annual General Meeting
McDonald's Corp	MCD US		May 2014 Sales and Revenue Release	2014
Polycom Inc	PLCM US		Annual General Meeting

Novartis AG - Barchart's Chart of the Day

Novartis AG (NVS) is Barchart's Chart of the Day.  The large cap pharmaceutical has a Trend Spotter buy signal, a Weighted Alpha of 22.90+, gained 18.24% in the last year all while paying a 2.04% dividend.

The Chart of the Day is Novartis AG (NVS).  I fount the stock by sorting the 52 Week New High List for new high frequency in the last month, then used the Flipchart feature to review the charts.  Since the Trend Spotter signaled another buy on 3/34 the stock gained another 4.23%

Novartis AG is committed to improving health and well-being through innovative products and services. The company aspires to capture and hold a leadership position in all of their businesses with a strong, sustainable performance based on continuous innovation. Their long-term success is founded on meeting the expectations of all our stakeholders - their customers, their people, their shareholders and the communities in which they live and work. (Press Release)

The status of Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.


Barchart technical indicators:

• 96% Barchart technical buy signals
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 16 new highs and up 7.19% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 68.79%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 88.18
• Recently traded at 88.61 with a 50 day moving average of 84.08

Fundamental factors:

• Market Cap $214.97 billion
• P/E 17.37
• Dividend yield 2.04%
• Revenue expected to grow 1.80% this year and an other 1.50% next year
• Earnings estimated to increase 5.40% this year, an additional 4.70% next year and continue to increase at an annual rate of 5.40% for the next 5 years
• Wall Street analysts issued 2 strong buy and 4 holds on the stock

If you have to have one big cap pharma, this might be it.  Use the 50 day moving average to gauge sings of weakness and the 100 day moving average to exit.