Saturday, July 11, 2015

Sell Signals - ZNGA, ALSK, ADM, DGX

This week I deleted Zynga (ZNGA), Alaska Communications Systems (ALSK), Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) and Quest Diagnostics (DGX) from the Barchart Van Meerten New High portfolio for negative price momentum.

Zynga (ZNGA)


Barchart technical indicators:

  • 48% Barchart technical sell signals
  • Trend Spotter sell signal
  • Below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 18.96% off its recent high
  • Relative Strength Index 27.03%
  • Recently traded at 2.65 which is below its 50 day moving average of 2.89



Barchart Technical indicators:

  • 40% Barchart technical sell signals
  • Trend Spotter sell signal
  • Below its 20 and 50 day moving averages
  • 16.28% off its recent high
  • Relative Strength Index 33.61%
  • Recently traded at 33.61 with a 50 day moving average of 2.37


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 64% Barchart technical sell signals
  • Trend Spotter sell signal
  • Below its 20, 50 and 10 day moving averages
  • 12.43% off its recent high
  • Relative Strength Index 26.97%
  • Recently traded at 47.21 with a 50 day moving average of 51.00


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 72% Barchart technical sell signals
  • Trend Spotter sell signal
  • Below its 20, 50 and 10 day moving averages
  • 19.57% below its recent high
  • Relative Strength Index 46.18%
  • Recently traded at 71.58 with a 50 day moving average of 72.84


Friday, July 10, 2015

Anacor Pharmaceuticals - Chart of the Day

Anacor Pharmaceuticals (ANAC) is the Barchart Chart of the Day.  The pharmaceutical preparations company has a Trend Spotter buy signal, a Weighted Alpha of 395.10+ and gained 389.68% in the last year.

The Chart of the Day belongs to Anacor Pharmaceuticals (ANAC), I found the pharmaceutical preparations stock by using Barchart to sort today's All Time High list for the stocks with the highest Weighted Alpha then used the Flipchart feature to review the charts,  Since the Trend Spotter signaled a buy in 5/12 the stock gained 35.27%


Anacor Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company engaged in discovery, development and commercialization of novel small-molecule therapeutics derived from its boron chemistry platform. Its three lead product candidates include two topically administered dermatologic compounds-AN2690, an antifungal for the treatment of onychomycosis, and AN2728, an anti-inflammatory for the treatment of psoriasis, as well as a systemic antibiotic for the treatment of infections caused by Gram-negative bacteria-GSK2251052. Additionally, the Company also develops topical antifungal product for the treatment of onychomycosis and skin fungal infections, topical anti-inflammatory product for the treatment of psoriasis and atopic dermatitis. Anacor Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is headquartered in Palo Alto, California.

The status of Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below.  Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates.  The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 100% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 9 new highs and up 21.20% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 74.18%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 76.67
  • Recently traded at 84.61 with a 50 day moving average of 69.12
Fundamental factors:
  • Market Cap $3.7 billion
  • Revenue expected to grow 255.20% this year and another 58.20% next year
  • Earnings estimated to increase 44.20% this year and an additional 80.00% next year
  • Wall Street analysts issued 3 strong buy, 1 buy and 1 hold recommendation on the stock
The 20-100 Day MACD Oscillator has been a reliable technical trading strategy for this stock and should continue to be used for entry and exit points.

BARCHART MORNING CALL 7/10

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
September E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 +1.20%) are up sharply by +1.27% and European stocks are up +3.01% at a 1-week high after Chinese stocks closed higher for a second day and after Greece submitted proposals to its creditors. French President Hollande said the Greek proposals were "serious" and "credible" after Greek Prime Minister Tsipras offered to meet most of the demands made by creditors in exchange for a 3-year bailout of 53.5 billion euros ($59.4 billion). Asian stocks closed mostly higher: Japan -0.38%, Hong Kong +2.08%, China +4.54%, Taiwan closed for holiday, Australia +0.39%, Singapore +0.38%, South Korea +0.02%, India +0.32%. Chinese stocks closed higher amid government intervention to help stem the recent equity rout. More than 1,300 Chinese stocks are still halted from trading on China's mainland exchanges, however, leaving trading to only 53% of the total market. Deleveraging by margin traders continued as stock bought on margin fell for a record 14th day on the Shanghai Stock Exchange on Thursday.
Commodity prices are mixed. Aug crude oil (CLQ15 +0.40%) is up +1.10%, Aug gasoline (RBQ15 -0.81%) is down -0.41%. Metals prices are mixed. Aug gold (GCQ15 +0.23%) is up +0.25%. Sep copper (HGU15 -0.74%) is down -0.61% after weekly Shanghai copper inventories rose +3,759 MT. Agricultural prices are higher ahead of the USDA's Jul WASDE crop production report.
The dollar index (DXY00 -1.01%) is down -1.12% at a 1-week low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +1.44% at a 1-1/2 week high. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.85%.

Sep T-note prices (ZNU15 -0.33%) are down -15.5 ticks.
The Greek government seeks a 3-year bailout loan of at least 53.5 billion euros that was presented to European institutions late last night and will be presented to the Greek Parliament today. It will then be discussed at a summit of EU leaders Sunday to determine whether Greece gets a new bailout or is forced to leave the Eurozone. The Greek proposals include creditors' demands for sales tax increases and cuts in public spending and pensions. Greece also proposes the restructuring of its debt and a package of growth measures of 35 billion euros. Greece said it will use the 3-year loan from the European Stability Mechanism to cover its debt repayments between 2015 and 2018.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) May wholesale inventories (expected +0.3% after April's +0.4%), (2) Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren's keynote speech at the 7th Annual Rocky Mountain Economic Summit, and (3) Fed Chair Janet Yellen's speech on the U.S. economic outlook at an event in Cleveland.
None the Russell 1000 companies report earnings today.
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today include: none.
Equity conferences this week: none.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Costco (COST -0.32%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Perform' at Oppenheimer with a $160 price target.
Heineken (HEINY +1.96%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at CitiGroup.
IntercontinentalExchange (ICE +1.16%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Deutsche Bank.
Transocean (RIG -0.66%) and Diamond Offshore (DO +1.74%) were both downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Hold' at Clarkson Capital.
Ameriprise (AMP +0.92%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Goldman Sachs.
Mosaic (MOS -0.86%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Neutral' at Atlantic Equities.
J.M. Smucker (SJM -0.15%) announced a 4.92 million share common stock offering.
Gartner reported that Q2 worldwide PC shipments were down 9.5% y/y to 68.4 million units.
Carl Icahn reported a 6.51% stake in Tegna (TGNA +2.61%) .
Soros Fund Management reported a 5.32% passive stake in Cypress Semiconductor (CY +0.09%) .
Verizon (VZ -0.69%) coverage was resumed with a 'Buy' at Stifel with a price target of $60.
AT&T (T -1.15%) coverage was resumed with a 'Buy' at Stifel with a price target of $41.50.
Wolverine Asset Management reported an 8.8% passive stake in Viggle (VGGL unch) .
The Gap (GPS -1.56%) reported June same-store-sales were down -1.0% y/y.
MARKET COMMENTS
September E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 +1.20%) this morning are up sharply by +26.00 points (+1.27%). Thursday's closes: S&P 500 +0.23%, Dow Jones +0.19%, Nasdaq +0.01%. The S&P 500 on Thursday closed higher on a sharp rebound in Chinese stocks and on strength in commodity producers after crude oil and copper rallied. Stocks fell back, however, on bearish factors that included the unexpected +15,000 increase in U.S. weekly jobless claims, and the IMF's cut in its global 2015 GDP forecast to 3.3% from April's 3.5% and in its U.S. GDP estimate to +2.5% from +3.1%.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU15 -0.33%) this morning are down -15.5 ticks. Thursday's closes: TYU5 -22.50, FVU5 -11.25. Sep T-notes on Thursday closed lower on reduced safe-haven demand tied to the upward rebound in Chinese and U.S. stocks and on weak demand for Thursday's 30-year T-bond auction that had a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.23, below the 12-auction average of 2.40.
The dollar index (DXY00 -1.01%)this morning is down -1.082 (-1.12%) at a 1-week low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0159 (+1.44%) at a 1-1/2 week high. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +1.03 (+0.85%). Thursday's closes: Dollar Index +0.312 (+0.32%), EUR/USD -0.00404 (-0.36%), USD/JPY +0.627 (+0.52%). The dollar on Thursday closed higher on (1) reduced safe-haven demand for the yen as USD/JPY strengthened after global stock markets rallied, and (2) weakness in EUR/USD ahead of Thursday night's deadline for Greece to present its creditors with a new plan.
Aug WTI crude oil (CLQ15 +0.40%) this morning is up +58 cents (+1.10%). Aug gasoline (RBQ15 -0.81%) is down -0.0083 (-0.41%). Thursday's closes: CLQ5 +1.13 (+2.19%), RBQ5 +0.0305 (+1.53%). Aug crude and gasoline on Thursday closed higher on short-covering and the sharp recovery in Chinese stocks. In addition, Iranian nuclear talks are not going well, which would keep economic sanctions against Iran in place and limit Iranian crude exports after President Obama said he sees less than a 50-50 chance of a nuclear deal with Iran.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR07/10/2015
US1000 ETMay wholesale inventories expected +0.3%, Apr +0.4%. May wholesale trade sales expected +0.9%, Apr +1.6%.
1135 ETBoston Fed President Eric Rosengren is the keynote speaker at the 7th Annual Rocky Mountain Economic Summit.
1200 ETUSDA Jul WASDE crop production.
1230 ETFed Chair Janet Yellen speaks on the U.S. economic outlook at an event in Cleveland.
JPN0100 ETJapan Jun consumer confidence expected +0.3 to 41.7, May 41.4.
UK0430 ETUK May construction output expected +0.8% m/m and +3.1% y/y, Apr -0.8% m/m and +1.5% y/y.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR07/10/2015
CompanyTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
American Airlines Group IncAAL USBef-mktJune 2015 Sales and Revenue Release - Traffic Results2015
Armstrong World Industries IncAWI USAnnual General Meeting

Thursday, July 9, 2015

Blue Hills Bancorp - All Time High

Blue Hills Bancorp (BHBK) is the Barchart Chart of the Day.  The commercial banking holding company has a Trend Spotter buy signal, a Weighted Alpha of 20.50+ and gained 18.05% in the last year.

The Chart of the Day is Blue Hills Bancorp ( BHBK).  I found the commercial banking stock by using Barchart to sort today's All Time High list for the stocks with the highest technical buy signals ten used the Flipchart feature to review the charts.  Since the Trend Spotter signaled a buy on 6/10 the stock gained 5.50%.

Blue Hills Bancorp, Inc. is the holding company for Blue Hills Bank, a full service, community bank. It provides consumer and commercial deposit and loan products. The Bank offers commercial and industrial and commercial real estate loans in addition to commercial checking and savings accounts. It offers consumer banking products including checking accounts, mortgage loans, equity lines of credit and traditional savings and certificate of deposit accounts. The Bank also offers online services including online account opening and funding, online mortgage applications and online banking, mobile banking and bill pay. Blue Hills Bancorp, Inc. is headquartered in Hyde Park, Massachusetts.



The status of Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below.  Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates.  The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report

Barchart technical indicators:

  • 100% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 8 new highs and up 7.23% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 64.20%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 14.25
  • Recently traded at 14.58 with a 50 day moving average of 13.85
Fundamental factors:
  • Market Cap $415.09 million
  • Revenue expected to grow 20.50% this year and another 18.05% next year
  • Earnings estimated to increase 26.30% next year
  • Wall Street analysts issued 1 strong buy and 1 hold recommendation on the stock
The 20-100 Day MACD Oscillator has been the most reliable technical trading strategy for this stock,

BARCHART MORNING CALL 7/9

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
September E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 +1.02%) are up +1.01% and European stocks are up +1.74% following a rebound in Chinese equities. Greece extended its bank holiday and capital controls through Monday and has until midnight Thursday to present European leaders with a plan that includes spending cuts in exchange for fresh bailout funds. European leaders will then meet on Sunday to decide their response to the proposals. Asian stocks closed mostly higher: Japan +0.60%, Hong Kong +3.73%, China +5,76%, Taiwan -0.69%, Australia +0.03%, Singapore -0.54%, South Korea +0.75%, India -0.41%. China's Shanghai Composite recovered from a 3-3/4 month low and closed higher after regulators banned majority stockholders from selling their shares for at least 6 months. Investors continue to sell shares bought on margin funds as data showed traders unloaded a record 112 billion yuan ($18 billion) of shares bought with borrowed money on the Shanghai exchange Wednesday, the 13th straight day of declines.
Commodity prices are mixed. Aug crude oil (CLQ15 +2.88%) is up +1.65%, Aug gasoline (RBQ15 +0.85%) is down -0.60%. Metals prices are mixed. Aug gold (GCQ15 -0.11%) is down -0.16%. Sep copper (HGU15 +1.62%) is up +1.40%. Agricultural prices are higher.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.10%) is up +0.21%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.23%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.68%.

Sep T-note prices (ZNU15 -0.31%) are down -11 ticks as the rally in global stocks reduces the safe-haven demand for Treasuries.
As Greece extended its bank holiday and capital controls through Monday, the ECB on Wednesday kept the cap on Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) to Greece's central bank at 88.6 billion euros, the level it has been frozen at since Jun 26. A Greek official with direct knowledge of the matter said at the current level of ELA, Greek banks have sufficient liquidity to last through Monday.
As expected, the BOE at the conclusion of today's policy meeting kept its benchmark interest rate at 0.50% and maintained its asset purchase target at 375 billion pounds.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) weekly initial unemployment claims (expected -6,000 to 275,000 after last week's +10,000 to 281,000) and continuing claims (expected -14,000 to 2.250 million after last week's +15,000 to 2.264 million), (2) the Treasury's auction of $13 billion of 30-year T-bonds, (3) an appearance by Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota on central banks and fiscal authorities as a panelist at the Deutsche Bundesbank Conference, and (4) a speech by Kansas City Fed President Esther George on the U.S. economy and monetary policy at OSU in Stillwater, OK.
There are two of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: PepsiCo (consensus $1.24), Walgreens (0.87).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today include: none.
Equity conferences this week: none.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Knight Transportation (KNX -0.52%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Neutral' at Credit Suisse.
Con-way (CNW -3.88%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Outperform' at Credit Suisse.
Regeneron (REGN -1.61%) was downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Neutral' at UBS.
J.B. Hunt (JBHT -1.45%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Longbow.
Amgen (AMGN -1.98%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at UBS.
Dunkin' Brands (DNKN -1.60%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Goldman Sachs.
Panera Bread (PNRA -0.47%) was upgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Sell' at Goldman Sachs.
Conn's (CONN -2.21%) reports that its June same-store-sales were up +1.1% y/y.
HSBC (HSBC -2.68%) was upgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Underperform' at Exane BNP Paribas.
Costco (COST -0.43%) reports that its June same-store-sales were down 1% y/y.
Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA -1.54%) reported Q3 EPS of $1.02, stronger than consensus of 87 cents.
PepsiCo (PEP -0.82%) jumped over 2% in pre-market trading after it reported Q2 EPS of $1.32, higher than consensus of $1.24.
Yahoo! (YHOO -2.62%) rose over 2% in pre-market tradign after the company said it will roll out a new sports-fantasy service designed for use on mobile devices.
Alcoa (AA -5.06%) reported Q2 EPS of 19 cents, below consensus of 23 cents.
Celgene Rivot reported a 9.1% stake in Juno Therapeutics (JUNO -6.24%) .
MARKET COMMENTS
September E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 +1.02%) this morning are up +20.50 points (+1.01%) as Chinese stocks stabilized. Wednesday's closes: S&P 500 -1.67%, Dow Jones -1.47%, Nasdaq -1.75%. The S&P 500 on Wednesday closed sharply lower on Grexit concerns, the plunge in China's Shanghai Composite to a 3-1/2 month low, and the +$16.086 billion increase in U.S. May consumer credit, less than expectations of +$18.5.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU15 -0.31%) this morning are down -11 ticks. TYU5 +8.00, FVU5 +6.00. Sep T-notes on Wednesday rose to a 5-week high and closed higher on (1) safe-haven demand from concerns about Grexit and the plunge in the Chinese stock market, and (2) expectations that the Fed's first rate hike will be delayed by Greek and Chinese concerns.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.10%) this morning is up +0.201 (+0.21%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0026 (-0.23%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.82 (+0.68%). Dollar Index -0.637 (-0.66%), EUR/USD +0.00649 (+0.59%), USD/JPY -1.829 (-1.49%). The dollar index on Wednesday closed lower on some safe-haven demand for the yen and a rally in EUR/USD tied to relief that the ECB maintained the Greek 89 billion euro ELA lifeline.
Aug WTI crude oil (CLQ15 +2.88%) this morning is up +85 cents (+1.65%). Aug gasoline (RBQ15 +0.85%) is down -0.0119 (-0.60%). CLQ5 -0.68 (-1.30%), RBQ5 +0.0572 (+2.93%). Aug crude and gasoline on Wednesday settled mixed. The EIA report was bearish with the +384,000 bbl increase in EIA crude inventories, more than expectations for no change, and the +1.22 million bbl increase in EIA gasoline supplies, more than expectations of no change. Other negative factors included concern about the negative economic fall-out from Greece and China and expectations that Iranian oil exports will double if there is a near-term Iranian nuclear agreement. The main supportive factor for crude oil prices was the weaker dollar.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR07/09/2015
US0545 ETMinneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota speaks on central banks and fiscal authorities as a panelist at the Deutsche Bundesbank Conference.
0830 ETWeekly initial unemployment claims expected -6,000 to 275,000, previous +10,000 to 281,000. Weekly continuing claims expected -14,000 to 2.250 million, previous +15,000 to 2.264 million.
0830 ETUSDA weekly Export Sales.
1300 ETKansas City Fed President Esther George speaks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy at OSU in Stillwater, OK.
1300 ETTreasury auctions $13 billion of 30-year T-bonds.
GER0200 ETGerman May trade balance expected +20.5 billion euros, Apr +21.8 billion euros. May exports expected -0.8% m/m, Apr +2.0% y/y. May imports expected +0.1% m/m, Apr -0.8% y/y.
0200 ETGerman May current account balance expected +16.0 billion euros, Apr +19.6 billion euros.
JPN0200 ETJapan Jun machine tool orders, May +15.0% y/y.
1950 ETJapan Jun PPI expected -0.1% m/m and -2.2% y/y, May +0.3% m/m and -2.1% y/y.
UK0700 ETBOE announces interest rate decision and asset purchase target, expected no change to the 0.50% benchmark rate or to the 375 billion pound asset purchase target.
CHIn/aChina Jun new yuan loans expected +1.050 trillion yuan, May +900.8 billion yuan.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR07/09/2015
CompanyTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
American Airlines Group IncAAL USBef-mktJune 2015 Sales and Revenue Release - Traffic Results2015
PepsiCo IncPEP US6:30Q2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20151.241
Walgreens Boots Alliance IncWBA US7:00Q3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20150.871
L Brands IncLB US7:30June 2015 Sales and Revenue Call2015
PepsiCo IncPEP US8:00Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
Walgreens Boots Alliance IncWBA US8:30Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
T-Mobile US IncTMUS US9:00Un-Carrier Amped Announcement
United Continental Holdings IncUAL USAft-mktJune 2015 Sales and Revenue Release - Operational Performance2015
Gap Inc/TheGPS USJune 2015 Sales and Revenue Release2015
Eli Lilly & CoLLY USFDA Adcomm, necitumumab, first-line squamous non-small cell lung cancer
L Brands IncLB USJune 2015 Sales and Revenue Release2015

Wednesday, July 8, 2015

DBV Technologies - All Time High

DBV Technologies (DBVT) is the Barchar Chart of the Day.  The biological products company has a Trend Spotter buy signal, a Weighted Alpha of 30.00+ and gained 39.39% in the last year.

The Chart of the Day belongs to DBV Technologies (DBVT).  I found the biological products stock by using Barchart to sort today's All Time High list for the stocks with the best technical buy signals, then used the Flipchart feature to review the charts.  Since the Trend Spotter signaled a buy on 6/8 the stock gained 22.07%.

DBV Technologies SA is a biopharmaceutical company. It develops products and immunotherapies for the diagnosis and treatment of various food allergies, including milk and peanut. The Company delivers biological immunoactive compounds, such as allergens, to the immune system by targeting the antigen-presenting cells present in skin. DBV Technologies SA is headquartered in Bagneux, France.


The status of Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below.  Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates.  The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report

Barchart technical indicators:

  • 96% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 50, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 10 new highs and up 22.30% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 75.51%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 31.28
  • Recently traded at 31.80 with a 50 day moving average of 26.52
Fundamental factors:
  • Market Cap $586.39 million
  • Revenue expected to shrink 14.70% this year and another 14.50% next year
  • Earnings estimated to increase by 5.40% this year but shrink by 33.30% next year
  • Despite these very poor projections the very same analysts that project poor revenue and earnings issued 2 strong buy and 1 buy recommendation.  Go figure that one.
This is an example of how a stock with no earnings, plus poor projections can still get glowing recommendations and the stock rises in spite of all odds.  The 50 Day Parabolic Time/Price indicators has been a reliable technical trading strategy for this stock.

BARCHART MORNING CALL 7/8

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
September E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 -0.75%) are down -0.65% on concern that a sell-off in Chinese stocks will spread across the globe. European stocks are up +0.87% on optimism that the ECB will be able to contain fallout from the Greek debt crisis after ECB Governing Council member Visco said that the ECB is ready to use all means at its disposal in the Greek financial crisis. European leaders on Tuesday ordered Greece to accept a rescue package by Sunday or face expulsion from the Eurozone. Weakness in European automakers is limiting gains in the overall market after China Jun passenger-vehicle sales dropped for the first time in more than 2 years. Asian stocks closed sharply lower: Japan -3.14%, Hong Kong -5.84%, China -5.90%, Taiwan -2.96%, Australia -2.00%, Singapore -1.67%, South Korea -1.25%, India -1.72%. The rout on Chinese stocks continued today with the Shanghai Composite falling to a fresh 3-1/2 month low as government measures to arrest the slide have so far proven ineffective. The sell-off in Chinese shares has spread throughout Asia with Japan's Nikkei Stock Index falling to a 1-1/2 month low.
Commodity prices are mixed. Aug crude oil (CLQ15 +0.52%) is up +0.71%, Aug gasoline (RBQ15 +1.78%) is up +1.79%. Metals prices are mixed. Aug gold (GCQ15 +0.32%) is up +0.08%. Sep copper (HGU15 -0.18%) is down -0.10% at a fresh 6-year low. Agricultural prices are weaker.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.28%) is down -0.180 (-0.19%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0006 (+0.05%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.89 (-0.73%) at a 1-1/2 month low.

Sep T-note prices (ZNU15 +0.06%) are up +1.5 ticks at a 5-week high as the slump in stocks boosts the safe-haven demand for Treasuries.
Investors trying to get out of Chinese stocks have found that 1,331 companies, or 72% of stocks on mainland exchanges have halted trading as trading curbs make it impossible to sell the stocks. Another 747 companies fell by their 10% limit on Wednesday as buyers were nowhere to be found. That suggests that today's 5.9% plunge in the Shanghai Composite Index was understated. Actions taken by the government thus far have been unable to stabilize the market as the Shanghai Composite has fallen 32% from its 7-1/3 year high on Jun 12.
China Jun passenger-vehicle sales fell -3.2% y/y to 1.43 million units, the first decline in more than 2 years.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) weekly MBA mortgage applications (last week -4.7% with purchase sub-index -4.1% and refi sub-index -5.2%), (2) the Treasury's auction of $21 billion of 10-year T-notes, (3) the minutes of the Jun 16-17 FOMC meeting, (4) a speech by San Francisco Fed President John Williams on the economic outlook to the International Conference of Commercial Bank Economists in Los Angeles, (5) May consumer credit (expected +$18.5 billion after April's +$20.541 billion), and (6) EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
One of the Russell 1000 companies reports earnings today: Alcoa (consensus $0.23).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today include: Clovis Oncology (CLVS).
Equity conferences this week: none.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Navistar (NAV -1.53%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at BB&T.
Harley-Davidson (HOG +0.37%) was downgraded to 'Sector Perform' from 'Outperform' at RBC Capital.
Reuters reported that JPMorgan Chase (JPM -0.79%) agreed to pay at least $125 million to settle probes that the bank sought to improperly collect and sell consumer credit card data.
W. R. Berkley (WRB +1.80%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Goldman Sachs.
Advance Auto Parts (AAP +0.07%) will replace Family Dollar (FDO +0.05%) in the S&P 500 as of the close of trading today.
St. Jude Medical (STJ +1.38%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at Wells Fargo.
Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS +0.13%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'In-Line' at Imperial Capital.
Rolls-Royce (RYCEY -5.32%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Outperform' at Exane BNP Paribas.
Pearson (PSO -0.16%) was downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Hold' at Berenberg.
Tourbillon reported a 14.9% passive stake in Green Plains Partners (GPP +1.39%) .
Vanda Pharmaceuticals (VNDA -1.91%) announced that the European Commission approved its Hetlioz drug for the treatment of Non-24-Hour Sleep-Wake Disorder in totally blind adults in the European Union.
Novartis' (NVS +0.56%) Entresto drug was approved by FDA for treatment of heart failure.
Gilder, Gagnon, Howe & Co. reported a 13.18% passive stake in Papa Murphy's (FRSH +3.15%) .
MARKET COMMENTS
September E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 -0.75%) this morning are down -13.50 points (-0.65%). Tuesday's closes: S&P 500 +0.61%, Dow Jones +0.53%, Nasdaq +0.243%. The S&P 500 on Tuesday recovered from a 3-1/2 month low and closed higher on supportive factors including hopes that a Greek bailout agreement will be reached by Sunday and the unexpected +29,000 increase in U.S. May JOLTS job openings to 5.363 million, stronger than expectations of 5.300 million and the most since the data series began in 2000. Bearish factors included a plunge in European stocks to a 5-1/2 month low on Grexit concerns and weakness in commodity producers after crude oil dropped to a 3-month low and copper sank to a 5-month low.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU15 +0.06%) this morning are up +1.5 ticks at a new 5-week high. Tuesday's closes: TYU5 +11.50, FVU5 +4.75. Sep T-notes on Tuesday rallied to a 5-week high on (1) safe-haven concerns sparked by Grexit and the Chinese stock market melt-down, and (2) reduced inflation concerns as a plunge in commodity prices pushed the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation rate down to a 3-week low.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.28%) this morning is down -0.180 (-0.19%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0006 (+0.05%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.89 (-0.73%) at a 1-1/2 month low. Tuesday's closes: Dollar Index -0.118 (-0.12%), EUR/USD -0.00446 (-0.40%), USD/JPY -0.036 (-0.03%). The dollar index on Tuesday fell back from a 5-week high and closed lower on reduced safe-haven demand after a recovery in U.S. stocks. The dollar posted a 5-week high early in the session on signs of strength in the U.S. labor market that may push the Fed to raise interest rates after U.S. May JOLTS job openings rose to their highest since the data began in 2000.
Aug WTI crude oil (CLQ15 +0.52%) this morning is up +37 cents (+0.71%). Aug gasoline (RBQ15 +1.78%) is up +0.0348 (+1.79%). Tuesday's closes: CLQ5 -0.68 (-1.28%), RBQ5 +0.0257 (+1.32%). Aug crude oil and gasoline Tuesday settled mixed. Crude oil fell to a 3-month low on (1) the EIA's hike in its 2015 U.S. crude production estimate to 9.47 million bpd from a 9.43 million bpd estimate last month, and (2) speculation that a nuclear deal with Iran may be imminent, which would pave the way for at least a doubling of Iranian oil exports.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR07/08/2015
US0700 ETWeekly MBA mortgage applications, previous -4.7% with purchase sub-index -4.1% and refi sub-index -5.2%.
1030 ETEIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
1300 ETTreasury auctions $21 billion of 10-year T-notes.
1400 ETMinutes of the Jun 16-17 FOMC meeting.
1400 ETSan Francisco Fed President John Williams speaks on the economic outlook to the International Conference of Commercial Bank Economists in Los Angeles.
1500 ETMay consumer credit expected +$18.5 billion, Apr +$20.541 billion.
JPN0030 ETJapan Jun bankruptcies, May -13.18% y/y.
0100 ETJapan Jun eco-watchers survey current expected -0.3 to 53.0, May 53.3. Jun eco-watchers survey outlook expected -0.5 to 54.0. May 54.5
1950 ETJapan May machine orders expected -4.9% m/m and +16.7% y/y, Apr +3.8% m/m and +3.0% y/y.
EUR0500 ETECB Executive Board member Benoit Coeure speaks on The International Role of the Euro at an event in Frankfurt.
UK1901 ETUK Jun RICS house price balance, May 34%.
CHI2130 ETChina Jun CPI expected +1.3% y/y, May +1.2% y/y. China Jun PPI expected -4.6% y/y, May -4.6% y/y.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR07/08/2015
CompanyTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Alcoa IncAA US17:00Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
United Continental Holdings IncUAL US17:00June 2015 Sales and Revenue Release - Operational Performance2015
Alcoa IncAA USAft-mktQ2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20150.226
Costco Wholesale CorpCOST USAft-mktJune 2015 Sales and Revenue Release2015
Advance Auto Parts IncAAP USAft-mktAdvanced Auto Parts Inc. Replaces Family Dollar Stores in S&P 500
Advance Auto Parts IncAAP USAft-mktJack in the Box Replaces Advanced Auto Parts in S&P MidCap 400
Healthcare Trust of America IncHTA USAnnual General Meeting

Tuesday, July 7, 2015

Dunkin' Brands - All Time High

Dunkin' Brands (DNKN) is the Barchart Chart of the Day.  The quick service restaurant company has a Trend Spotter buy signal, a Weighted Alpha of 30.90+, gained 21.70% in the last year and paid a 1.92% dividend.

The Chart of the Day belongs to Dunkin' Brands (DNKN).  I found the quick service restaurant stock by using Barchart to sort the All Time High list for the stocks with the best technical buy signals, then used the Flipchart feature to review the charts,  Since the Trend Spotter signaled a buy on 4/23 the stock gained 9.26%.

Dunkin' Brands Group, Inc. owns, operates, and franchises quick service restaurants worldwide. It serves hot and cold coffee and baked goods, as well as ice cream. Its brands include Dunkin' Donuts and Baskin-Robbins. Dunkin' Brands Group is headquartered in Canton, Massachusetts.


The status of Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below.  Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates.  The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report

Barchart technical indicators:

  • 100% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 9 new highs and up 7.25% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 71.61%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 55.14
  • Recently traded at 56.27 with a 50 day moving average of 53.08
Fundamental factors:
  • Market Cap $ 5.43 billion
  • P/E 30.37
  • Dividend yield 1.92%
  • Revenue expected to grow 7.00% this year and another 6.50% next year
  • Earnings estimated to increase 9.80% this year, an additional 17.30% next year and continue to increase at an annual rate of 13.98% for the next 5 years
  • Wall Street analysts issued 6 strong buy, 9 buy, 13 hold and 1 under perform recommendations on the stock
The 50-100 Day MACD Oscillator has been a reliable technical trading strategy and should continue to be used on this stock.

The Hell with Greece - What about the BRICs?

Everyone seems fixated upon what is happening in Greece but totally ignoring what is happening with the BRICs: Brazil, Russia, India and China.

In terms of Gross Domestic Product look at the rankings from the CIA Fact Book for 2014:

  • #1 China - $17,630,000,000,000
  • #2 EU - $17,590,000,000,000
  • #3 USA - $17,460,000,000,000
  • #4 India - $7,277,000,000,000
  • #7  Russia - $3,568,000,000,000
  • #8 Brazil - $3,073,000,000,000
  • #53 Greece - $284,300,000,000
What a distant #53 - Percentage of the other counties' GDP:
  • China - 1.6%
  • EU - 1.6%
  • USA - 1.6%
  • India - 3.9%
  • Russia - 7.9%
  • Brazil - 9.2%
If I use the Value Line Index for the US and an ETF's of each country, how far off their recent high are they?:
  • USA - $VLA - 4.26%
  • China - MCHI  - 22.56%
  • India - INDA - 7.70%
  • Russia - ERUS - 36.00
  • Brazil - EWZ - 42.27%
  • BRICs - BKF - 14.86%
  • Greece - GREK - 56.26%
If I graph each of the BRIC ETFs over the last 2 1/2 months the losses look like this:


Only India is holding its own.

If I compare the Value Line Index over the last 2 1/2 months to Greece and the BRICs  - The BRICs has lost as much as the Greek ETF even with India beefing up the results:


My Conclusion - Greece is a drop in the bucket.  If you want to worry; worry about China, the EU, the USA, India, Russia and Brazil.  I am not predicting doom and gloom but I think the best days of the Market are behind us.  It appears we've reached the mountain top and there is much more downside potential than upside.

My Advice:  Be ready to prune your portfolio of any stock down more than 10% and let the proceeds sit on the side lines until we see what is happening.


BARCHART MORNING CALL 7/7

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
September E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 -0.10%) are up +0.25%, although European stocks are down -0.57% at a fresh 4-3/4 month low as European leaders prepare to meet to discuss Greece's economic crisis. The ECB maintained the level of Emergency Liquidity Assistance to Greek banks at 88.6 billion euros on Monday, while tightening terms related to collateral as it raised the haircut on Greek debt to 45%. Greek banks and its stock market will remain shut through Wednesday. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +1.31%, Hong Kong -1.03%, China -1.29%, Taiwan -0.06%, Australia +1.94%, Singapore +0.24%, South Korea -0.10%, India -0.13%. The sell-off in Chinese stocks continued for the fourth time in five days as the Shanghai Composite fell to a 3-1/2 month low. Deleveraging of stocks purchased on margin has fueled declines as traders cut 93.6 billion yuan worth of stock bought on margin on the Shanghai Stock exchange since Monday, the most since at least 2010. Also, foreign investors are exiting Chinese stocks at a record pace as net selling through the Hong Kong-Shanghai exchange link reached 10.3 billion yuan today, extending sales to 23.7 billion yuan in the past 2 days, the most since the link started in November.
Commodity prices are mixed. Aug crude oil (CLQ15 -0.70%) is up +0.78%, Aug gasoline (RBQ15 -0.24%) is up +0.95%. Metals prices are weaker. Aug gold (GCQ15 -0.17%) is down -0.72%. Sep copper (HGU15 -1.98%) is down -2.44% at a new 5-month low. Agricultural prices are lower.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.57%) is up +0.54% at a 1-month high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.77% at a 1-week low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.06%.

Sep T-note prices (ZNU15 +0.39%) are up +10.5 ticks on carry-over support from a rally in German bunds to a 1-month high.
In a document published on its website today, the ECB added "moral hazard" to its Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) rules in an attempt to clarify the conditions to which banks may access emergency aid. The ECB warned that "moral hazard" could be a reason to object to ELA it allows banks to access saying that "the objective of ELA is to support solvent credit institutions facing temporary liquidity problems. It is not a monetary-policy instrument." The reference to moral hazard indicates the ECB is worried that bending the liquidity rules for Greece may lead future Eurozone members to act less responsibly.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) May U.S. trade deficit (expected -$42.75 billion after April's -$40.90 billion), (2) May JOLTS job openings (expected -76,000 to 5.300 million after April's +267,000 to 5.376 million), and (3) the Treasury's auction of $24 billion of 3-year T-notes.
One of the Russell 1000 companies reports earnings today: MSC Industrial Direct (consensus $0.96).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today include: none.
Equity conferences this week: none.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Lloyds Banking (LYG -2.03%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Canaccord.
Broadcom (BRCM -1.34%) was downgraded to 'Perform' from 'Outperform' at Oppenheimer.
Marvell (MRVL -1.19%) was upgraded to 'Perform' from 'Underperform' at Oppenheimer.
Dillard's (DDS -0.39%) was downgraded to 'Underperform' from 'Neutral' at BofA/Merrill Lynch.
Disney (DIS +0.63%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Neutral' at Atlantic Equities.
BTIG initiated Teva (TEVA +0.16%) with a 'Buy' rating and a $77 price target.
Baxter (BAX -0.68%) was downgraded to 'Market Perform' from 'Outperform' at BMO Capital.
W. R. Berkley (WRB +1.19%) was upgraded to 'Hold' from 'Sell' at Deutsche Bank.
Electronic Arts (EA +0.31%) and Kansas City Southern (KSU -0.82%) were both upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at UBS.
Tesla (TSLA -0.11%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Deutsche Bank.
Advance Auto Parts (AAP +0.81%) will replace Family Dollar (FDO +0.05%) in the S&P 500 as of the close of trading on Wednesday July 8.
A. Schulman (SHLM -2.25%) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 72 cents, below consensus of 77 cents, and then lowered guidance on 2015 EPS to$2.37-$2.42, weaker than consensus of $2.47.
Luxor Capital Group reported a 5.03% passive stake in Northstar Realty (NRF -1.14%) .
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD -2.37%) lowered guidance on Q2 revenue view to down 8% versus Q1, weaker than an earlier estimate of down 3%, plus or minus 3%.
MARKET COMMENTS
September E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 -0.10%) this morning are up +5.25 points (+0.25%). Monday's closes: S&P 500 -0.39%, Dow Jones -0.26%, Nasdaq -0.33%. The S&P 500 on Monday closed lower on (1) a slide in European stocks to a 4-3/4 month low as financial stocks plunged on Grexit concerns after Greece voters decisively voted No in Sunday's referendum, (2) the +0.3 point increase in the U.S. Jun ISM non-manufacturing index to 56.0, weaker than expectations of +0.7 to 56.4, and (3) weakness in oil producers on the plunge in oil prices. Stocks recovered from their worst levels after Greek Finance Minster Varoufakis resigned, which raised hopes that Prime Minister Tsipras may be ready to accede to a bailout deal.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU15 +0.39%) this morning are up +10.5 ticks. Monday's closes: TYU5 +28.50, FVU5 +15.25. Sep T-notes on Monday gapped up to a 2-week high and closed higher on (1) Grexit concerns after Sunday's referendum vote, and (2) ideas that the Fed might be forced to delay a rate hike by the Greek crisis. T-notes fell back from their best levels after stocks recovered on speculation the ECB will contain any negative fallout from the Greek crisis.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.57%) this morning is up +0.523 (+0.54%) at a fresh 1-month high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0085 (-0.77%) at a 1-week low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.07 (-0.06%). Monday's closes: Dollar Index +0.185 (+0.19%), EUR/USD -0.0028 (-0.25%), USD/JPY -0.486 (-0.39%). The dollar index on Monday climbed to a 1-month high and settled higher on the decline in EUR/USD to a 1-week low on Grexit concerns. However, the rally in the dollar index was curbed by safe-haven demand for the yen and by news that Greek Finance Minster Varoufakis resigned, which means that Prime Minister Tsipras may be ready for a bailout deal.
Aug WTI crude oil (CLQ15 -0.70%) this morning is up +41 cents (+0.78%). Aug gasoline (RBQ15 -0.24%) is up +0.0183 (+0.95%). Monday's closes: CLQ5 -2.99 (-5.39%), RBQ5 -0.0651 (-3.25%). Aug crude oil and gasoline gapped lower Monday and finished sharply lower with Aug crude at a 2-1/2 month low and Aug gasoline at a 1-month low. Negative factors included dollar strength, Grexit concerns, and the possibility of an Iran nuclear deal this week, which would pave the way for at least a doubling of Iranian oil exports.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR07/07/2015
US0830 ETMay trade balance expected -$42.75 billion, Apr -$40.90 billion.
1000 ETMay JOLTS job openings expected -76,000 to 5.300 million, Apr +267,000 to 5.376 million.
1300 ETTreasury auctions $24 billion of 3-year T-notes.
GER0200 ETGerman May industrial production expected +0.1% m/m and +2.6% y/y, Apr +0.9% m/m and +1.4% y/y.
UK0430 ETUK May industrial production expected -0.2% m/m and +1.6% y/y, Apr +0.4% m/m and +1.2% y/y.
0430 ETUK May manufacturing production expected +0.1% m/m and +1.8% y/y, Apr -0.4% m/m and +0.2% y/y.
1901 ETUK Jun BRC shop price index, May -1.9% y/y.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR07/07/2015
CompanyTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
MSC Industrial Direct Co IncMSM US7:00Q3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20150.962
MSC Industrial Direct Co IncMSM US8:30Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Columbus McKinnon Corp/NYCMCO US9:00Investor and Analyst DayY 2015
A Schulman IncSHLM US10:00Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Stifel Financial CorpSF US12:00Annual General Meeting
Navidea Biopharmaceuticals IncNAVB US13:00Business Update Call
Container Store Group Inc/TheTCS US16:30Q1 2016 Earnings CallQ1 2016
Container Store Group Inc/TheTCS USAft-mktQ1 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ1 2016-0.124
Allegiant Travel CoALGT USJune 2015 Sales and Revenue Release - Traffic Results2015