Saturday, May 15, 2010

The Market is in recovery so continue to reinvest

Every Saturday morning on Financial Tides I run through my standard exercise of using Barchart and my 3 yardsticks to evaluate just what the market really did during the past week. One thing that I've learned over the years is you need to be proactive and not reactive in your investing. Most investors are lemmings who don't plan ahead. A week ago last Thursday was a market disaster from which the market is recovering. Too many people are still liquidating as the market begins its recovery. Let's get back to the yardsticks.

Value Line Index -- contains 1700 stocks so it's much broader than the S&P 500 or very narrow Dow 30 -- beginning to recover
  • After 2 down weeks the Index was up 4.68% for the week
  • If the Index were a stock Barchart technical indicators give it an 8% buy score
  • The Index is trading below its 20 & 50 day moving average but is above its 100 day moving average

Barchart Market Momentum -- contain approximately 6000 stocks -- Percentage of stocks trading above their daily moving averages for various time frames -- Above 50% is always good -- Poor but improving over last week

  • 20 DMA -- only 27.54% closed above on Friday --10.04% last week --68.62% last month
  • 50 DMA -- only 39.97% closed above on Friday -- 23.79% last week -- 83.56 last month
  • 100 DMA -- 60.77% closed above on Friday -- 43.83% last week -- 84.04% last month

Ratio of stocks hitting new highs to stocks hitting new lows for various time frames-- 1.0+ bullish, 1.0 neutral, under .99 bearish -- short term bearish but long term bullish

  • 1 month ratio of stocks hitting new highs/new lows -- 199/345 = .58
  • 3 month ratio of stocks hitting new highs/new lows -- 150/172 = .87
  • 6 month ratio of stocks hitting new highs/new lows -- 125/104 = 1.20

Investment Strategy -- The Conference Board's Index of Economic Indicators was up for all 3 indicators -- leading, coincident and lagging. After 2 down weeks the market was up for the week but in a recovery not a growth mode. Since the economy is growing and this weeks market action was up I'll continue to trim under performing stocks but I not going to be afraid to reinvest that money into issues having recent upward price momentum.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters on Financial Tides and Barchart. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com

Friday, May 14, 2010

There is profits in medical software

Time to do a little trimming in my Wall Street Survivor portfolio. I was a little hesitant to trim last week because I realized that last week's negative market action was hitting everything and performance figures were not representative of any individual stocks worth. I have identified 2 stocks that I think just aren't going to have upward price momentum in the near future so I'm deleting them.

Kratos Defense and Security Solutions (KTOS) has downward price momentum and is now trading below it's 50 day moving average. The stock has moved down for the last 3 weeks and has decreased in price 11.20% in the last 30 days . Barchart also has 9 of 12 technical sell signals for an overall sell score of 48%.

Cameron International Corp (CAM) also has downward price momentum and has been down by 17.84% in the last 30 days. It presently trades below it's 100 day moving average and has a 72% overall sell signal on Barchat.

I am adding a stock and continue to be in the market for 2 reasons:
  1. The Conference Board's economic indicators are positive for the first time in a long while, with the leading, coincident and lagging indicators all showing gains last month
  2. My proxy for the stock market, the Value Line Index ( contains 1700 stocks) has almost recovered back to the pre-market fiasco of last week

My addition is Medassets (MDAS). The company designs software to help hospitals and other medical facilities identify opportunities to improve revenue, margins and cash flow. With all the health initiatives the government is pressing for I still think health care is a growth industry and anything that helps turn a profit ought to do well.

Let's go through the process I used to find this company and the reason I'm adding it to my portfolio.

Technical price momentum -- Barchart screens tell me this stock hit new highs in 12 of the last 20 trading sessions and also in 4 of the last 5 sessions. The stock is up by 19.61% in the last 30 days. Barchart's technical indicators signal 12 out of 13 buys for an overall Barchart technical buy score of 96%. The stock trades around 35.50 with a 50 day moving average of 28.29.

Wall Street fundamentals -- Wall Street analysts like the stock with 14 buy, 7 hold and no negative recommendations released. They think sales will increase 15.70% this year and 14.70% next year. They predict double digit improvement in earnings per share with estimates that earnings will increase 12.20% this year, 23.90% next year and continue on a 5 year annual compounded growth rate of 19.21%

Investor sentiment -- Over on Motley Fool CAPS members think the stock will out perform the market by a vote of 40 to 10 with the All Stars in agreement 19 to 3. Fool notes that all 10 articles published about the company have been positive.

The stock meets the criteria I look for:

  • The company seems positioned in a market that will have growth
  • The recent price momentum has been positive and Barchart has a 96% technical buy signal
  • Wall Street has buy recommendations published and looks for increases in sales and earnings
  • Investor sentiment on popular websites is positive

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who blogs on financial matters on Financial Tides and Barchart. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com

Disclosure: I have no positions in the stocks mentioned at the time of publication

Thursday, May 13, 2010

Meee for Yoohoo!

Financial Tides likes DR PEPPER SNAPPLE Group ( DPS ) one of the largest beverage companies in the Americas. They manufacture, market and distribute more than 50 brands of carbonated soft drinks, juices, ready to drink teas, mixers and other premium beverages across the United States, Canada, Mexico and the Caribbean.

I was raised in the south so Yoohoo and Squirt were found in every gas station and store cooler when I was a kid. The other brands they own that I love are 7 Up, A&W, Sunkist sodas, Hawaiian Punch and now that I've grownup ( my Mom and wife would say I haven't grown up just gotten older ) I love Mr & Mrs T's Mixers.

The new marketing strategy is to play up to the new health concerns and tell you how their drinks contain added vitamins and are made from real fruits and vegetables --- all these years I didn't know how healthy Yoohoo was!

Wall Street predicts good things for the stock and has published 8 buy and 4 hold recommendations. Although sales are only predicted to go up 3.20% this year and 3.30% next year they estimate stellar earnings projections. An increase in EPS of 22.30% this year, 13.70% next year and a compounded 5 year EPS growth rate of 7.85% are forecasted.

The technical signs are present too with a 8.92% price appreciation in the last 30 days, The stock hit 7 new highs in the last 20 trading session and 5 for 5 last week. Barchart's technical indicators have 12 of 13 buy signals for an 88% buy score. The stock trades around 37.91 with a 50 day moving average of 34.91.

Investor sentiment as measured by votes on Motley Fool shows CAPS members vote 322 to 22 that the stock will beat the market and the more savvy All Stars agree 133 to 10. Of the last 9 articles published on DPS 8 were positive.

This stock warrants a look because it:
  • Has great brand recognition
  • Had recently price momentum wiht an 88% Barchart technical buy score
  • Positive investor sentiment
  • Wall Street buy recommendations with solid growth in earnings

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes about investing on Financial Tides and Barchart. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com

Disclosure: No position in DPS at the time of publication

Quanta Services -- PWR - Benefits from grid expansion

Financial Tides likes Quanta Services ( PWR ) a leading provider of specialty electrical contracting and maintenance services primarily related to electric and telecommunications infrastructure in North America. In addition, the Company provides electrical contracting services to the commercial and industrial markets and installs transportation control and lighting systems. Some of Quantas services include the installation, repair and maintenance of electric power transmission and distribution lines and telecommunication and cable television lines, the construction of electric substations, and the erection of cellular telephone.

Quanta should have a good year. This winter weather was bad for utility lines but the company provided high margin repair services to the industry. Recently they signed new contracts to help both Verizon and AT&T expand their grids. They are positioned properly without a high fixed overhead.

The stock appreciated 13.78% during the last month and hit 10 new highs in the last 20 trading sessions. They also increased in 5 of the last 5 sessions. On Barchart all 13 technical indicators signal a 100% buy. The stock trades at 22.55 with a 50 day moving average of 19.72.

Motley Fool CAPS members vote that the stock will out perform the market by a vote of 524 to 14 with the All Stars in agreement 15 to 3. Fool notes that 20 of the last 21 articles have been positive.

Wall Street has noticed this stock with 14 buy and a hold recommendation. They expect the company to increase sales by 20.60% this year and 12.40% next year. Earnings projection are fantastic with increases of 34.30% this year and 27.70% next year. The company is expected to maintain a 5 year compounded EPS growth rate of 11.34%

The stock has:
  • Recent price momentum and a 100% Barchart technical buy score
  • Wall Street buy recommendations with predicted increases in sales and earnings
  • Solid investor sentiment.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who write about investing on Financial Tides and Barchart. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com

Disclosure: No position in PWR at the time of publication

Wednesday, May 12, 2010

The new Hasbro is not your father's Milton Bradley

Hasbro Inc. ( HAS ) is a worldwide leader in children's and family leisure time and entertainment products and services, including the design, manufacture and marketing of games and toys ranging from traditional to high-tech. Both internationally and in the U.S., its PLAYSKOOL, KENNER, TONKA, ODDZON, SUPER SOAKER, MILTON BRADLEY, PARKER BROTHERS, TIGER, HASBRO INTERACTIVE,MICROPROSE, GALOOB and WIZARDS OF THE COAST brands and products provide what the company believes to be the highest quality and most recognizable play experiences in the world. (PRESS RELEASE)

That press release sounds more like the old company your father liked that made all the Milton Bradley and Parker Brothers board games all of us Boomers played as kids but a closer look says it isn't so. The new Hasbro knows how to use TV and movies to market their goods. They are using the Discovery Kids Channel to use the characters in their games as program characters the kids will watch. They also have multiple year licensing agreements with Marvel Entertainment to market toys based on Iron Man 2, Captain America and Thor movies that are being released soon.

Wall Street continues to increase their sales and earnings estimates and has 9 buy and 6 hold recommendations published. They look for sales to increase .30% this year and 7.10% next year. The earnings projections are what catches my eye with EPS growth estimated to be increased by 5.20% this year, 18.40% next year and maintain a 5 year compounded growth rate of 10.00%.

Barchart's technical indicators signal a buy on 13 of its 13 indicators for a 100% buy signal. The stock has appreciated 8.59% in the last month with 8 new highs in the last 20 trading sessions and 4 for 5 in the last week. The stock trades around 40.80 with a 50 day moving average of 38.75.

I can't believe the investor sentiment over on Motley Fool where CAPS members think the stock will beat the market by a vote of 1493 to 52 with the more experienced All Stars in agreement 469 to 16. Fool notes that business columnists have had positive articles about the stock 16 to 0.

This stock has the points I look for:
  • Recent price momentum with a Barchart technical buy signal of 100%
  • Wall Street buy opinions with projections of increases in sales and earnings
  • A high investor sentiment

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters on Financial Tides and Barchart Portfolio Blogs. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com

Disclosure: No positions in HAS at the time of publication.

Tuesday, May 11, 2010

Direct TV profits soar -- DTV

Direct TV ( DTV ) is having a great year. They are buying back stock at a fantastic rate. They are also experiencing terrific costs savings as the prices on their equipment is coming down.

DIRECTV Class A is a provider of digital multichannel television entertainment, broadband satellite networks and services, and global video and data broadcasting in the United States and Latin America. The Company operates in two segments, DIRECTV U.S. and DIRECTV Latin America (DTVLA). DIRECTV Holdings LLC and its subsidiaries, referred to as the DIRECTV U.S., is the provider of direct-to-home (DTH), digital television services and is also engaged in the multi-channel video programming distribution industry in the United States. The Company provides its subscribers with access to hundreds of channels of digital-quality video pictures and compact disc - quality audio programming that it transmits directly to subscribers' homes or businesses through high-powered geosynchronous satellites. The DIRECTV Latin America segment provides DTH digital television services in Latin America and the Caribbean, including Puerto Rico. The company is based in El Segundo, California. ( press release )

The stock has recently experienced a 7.74% price appreciation in the last 30 days and hit new highs in 10 of the last 20 trading sessions and also 4 of the last 5. Barchart technical indicators signal 12 of 13 buy signals for an 88% buy rating. The stock trades around 37.98 with a 50 day moving average of 35.14.

Wall Street likes the stock with 13 buy and 7 hold recommendations released. Sales are estimated to increase 8.90% this year and 7.40% next year. Earnings forecasts are aggressive with EPS growth predictions of 58.60% this year, 27.00% next year and a 5 year compounded EPS growth rate of 19.15%.

Motley Fool members express a very positive investor sentiment with CAPS members voting that the stock will beat the market by a vote of 576 to 61 and the more experienced All Stars agree by 152 to 12. Fool list positive Wall Street articles 24 to 1.

The stock has a lot going for it:
  1. Recent price momentum with an 88% Barchart technical buy signal
  2. Wall Street buy recommendations with forecasts of increased sales and earnings
  3. Very positive investor sentiment

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.

No positions in DTV at the time of publication

Monday, May 10, 2010

Do not sit on the sidelines today

Today is the day to make back any losses. Buy TNA at the opening.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com

Disclosure: I do hold positions in TNA