Wednesday, November 13th, 2013View Older Reports
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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ13 -0.35%) this morning are down -0.25% and European stocks are down -0.49% on speculation stronger-than-expected economic data will prompt central banks to curb their stimulus measures. Asian stocks closed lower: Japan -0.15%, Hong Kong -1.91%, China -2.22%, Taiwan -1.11%, Australia -1.37%, Singapore -0.42%, South Korea -1.82%, India -0.43%. UK jobless claims fell more than expected last month and the Sep unemployment rate fell to its lowest level in 4-1/2 years. China's Shanghai Stock Index tumbled over 2% to a 2-1/4 month low after a communique at the end of China's 4-day plenum failed to provide details of financial reforms, while Japanese stocks fell after Japan Sep machine orders fell more than expected. Commodity prices are mixed. Dec crude oil (CLZ13 +0.24%) is up +0.10%. Dec gasoline (RBZ13 +1.14%) is up +1.09%. Dec gold (GCZ13 +0.17%) is up +0.17% and Dec copper (HGZ13 -1.47%) is down -1.27% at a 3-month low after China refined copper production rose +23% y/y to a record 637,000 MT. Agricultural and livestock prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.06%) is down -0.03%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.13%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.15%. December T-note prices (ZNZ13 +0.14%) are up +4 ticks.UK Oct jobless claims fell -41,700, a bigger decline than expectations of -30,000, and Sep was revised to -44,700, also a bigger decline than expectations of -41,700. The Oct claimant count rate fell to 3.9% from 4.0% in Sep, right on expectations and the lowest in 4-3/4 years.
The UK Sep ILO unemployment rate fell -0.1 to 7.6% for the 3-months ended in Sep, right on expectations and the lowest in 4-1/2 years.
Eurozone Sep industrial production fell -0.5% m/m, a bigger decline than expectations of -0.3% m/m, while on an annual basis it climbed +1.1% y/y, better than expectations of no change.
Japan Oct domestic CGPI fell-0.1% m/m and rose +2.5% y/y, close to expectations of -0.2% m/m and +2.5% y/y.
Japan Sep machine orders fell -2.1% m/m and rose +11.4% y/y, weaker than expectations of -1.8% m/m and +12.5% y/y.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
The Treasury continues this week’s $70 billion quarterly refunding operation by selling $24 billion in 10-year T-notes today. The Treasury will then sell $16 billion in 30-year bonds on Thursday. There are 3 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today: Macy's (consensus $0.39), NetApp (0.63), Cisco Systems (0.51).Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Jefferies Global Energy Conference on Tue-Wed, Barclays Global Automotive Conference on Tue-Wed, RBC Capital Markets Technology, Media & Telecommunications Conference on Tue-Wed, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Banking & Financial Services Conference on Tue-Wed, Cowen & Co. Global Metals, Mining and Materials Conference on Wed, J.P. Morgan Ultimate Services Investor Conference on Wed, Goldman Sachs Industrials Conference on Wed-Thu, Morgan Stanley Global Chemicals and Agriculture Conference on Wed-Thu, UBS Building and Building Products CEO Conference on Thu, Barclays Software Defined Data Center Forum on Thu, SunTrust Robinson Humphrey Financial Technology, Business and Government Servic on Thu, Morgan Stanley Asia Pacific Summit on Thu, and Mexico Investors Forum 2013 on Fri.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Health Management (HMA -0.08%) reported a Q3 EPS loss of -1 cent ex-items, well below consensus of a 15 cent profit.Transocean (RIG -0.42%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Guggenheim.
Qualcomm (QCOM +1.32%) was upgraded to 'Conviction Buy' from 'Buy' at Goldman with an $80 price target.
Western Refining (WNR +9.15%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at UBS.
Dean Foods (DF -7.66%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Outperform' at Credit Suisse.
PetroChina (PTR -1.46%) acquired Petrobras (PBR -2.61%) assets in Peru for approximately $2.6 billion.
U.S. Steel (X -0.66%) rose nearly 3% in pre-market trading after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to 'Overweight' from 'Equal Weight.'
NGL Energy Partners (NGL -1.28%) reported a Q2 EPS loss of -5 cents, weaker than consensus of a 5 cent profit.
Bloomberg reported that Johnson & Johnson (JNJ -0.77%) will pay over $4 billion to settle more than 7,500 suits filed in federal and state courts against its DePuy unit by patients who’ve already had recalled hip implants removed.
SAC Capital reported a 5.0% passive stake in Vitamin Shoppe (VSI +2.58%) .
Babcock & Wilcox (BWC -0.47%) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 57 cents, better than consensus of 55 cents, although Q3 revenue of $774.8 million was below consensus of $851.45 million.
YUm! Brands (YUM -0.35%) reported itsOctober same-store sales declined an estimated 5% for the China Division.
Woodward (WWD +0.20%) reported Q4 EPS of 76 cents, stronger than consensus of 70 cents.
MARKET COMMENTS
Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ13 -0.35%) this morning are down -4.50 points (-0.25%). The S&P 500 index on Tuesday closed lower. Stocks fell on speculation the Fed may taper QE3 as soon as next month after Atlanta Fed President Lockhart said reducing bond purchases “ought to be on the table at upcoming meetings” by the FOMC including next month’s meeting. Closes: S&P 500 -0.24%, Dow Jones -0.21%, Nasdaq 100 +0.07%.Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ13 +0.14%) this morning are up +4 ticks. Dec 10-year T-note prices on Tuesday slipped to a 3-1/2 week low and closed lower. Market sentiment remains bearish for T-note prices after Friday’s larger-than-expected increase in Oct non-farm payrolls heightened speculation the Fed is closer to tapering QE3. Another negative for T-notes is supply pressures with the Treasury auctioning $70 billion of Treasury securities in this week’s quarterly refunding. Closes: TYZ3 -4.00, FVZ3 -4.00.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.06%) this morning is down -0.025 (-0.03%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0017 (-0.13%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.15 (-0.15%). The dollar index on Tuesday closed higher on speculation that strength in the U.S. economy will prompt the Fed to cut its dollar-negative QE3 program. USD/JPY jumped up to a 1-3/4 month high as the yen weakened after Japan Oct consumer confidence fell to a 10-month low. Closes: Dollar index +0.101 (+0.12%), EUR/USD +0.0029 (+0.22%), USD/JPY +0.482 (+0.49%).
Dec WTI crude oil (CLZ13 +0.24%) this morning is up +9 cents (+0.10%) and Dec gasoline (RBZ13 +1.14%) is up +0.0281 (+1.09%). Dec crude oil and gasoline prices on Tuesday closed lower as Dec crude sank to a 4-1/2 month low. Bearish factors included (1) a stronger dollar, (2) the monthly report from OPEC that said global oil markets are “well-supplied,” and (3) expectations that U.S. crude supplies will rise for the eighth consecutive week when the EIA reports weekly crude inventories on Thursday. Closes: CLZ3 -2.10 (-2.21%), RBZ3 -0.0101 (-0.39%).
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR11/13/2013
| US | 0700 ET | Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous -7.0% with purchase sub-index -5.2% and refi sub-index -7.9%. |
| 1300 ET | Treasury auctions $24 billion 10-year T-notes. | |
| 1400 ET | Oct monthly budget statement expected -$100.00 billion, Sep +$75.07 billion. | |
| 1630 ET | API weekly U.S. oil statistics. | |
| 1900 ET | Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke holds a town hall meeting with educators in Washington D.C. | |
| UK | 0430 ET | UK Oct jobless claims change expected -30,000, Sep -41,700. Oct claimant count rate expected 3.9%, Sep 4.0%. |
| 0430 ET | UK Sep avg weekly earnings expected +0.7% 3-mo/year-over-year, Aug +0.7% 3-mo/year-over-year. Sep avg weekly earnings ex-bonus expected +0.9% 3-mo-/year-over-year, Aug +0.8% 3-mo/year-over-year. | |
| 0430 ET | UK Sep ILO unemployment rate expected -0.1 to 7.6% 3-months, Aug 7.7% 3-months. | |
| 0530 ET | BOE monthly inflation report. | |
| EUR | 0500 ET | Eurozone Sep industrial production expected -0.3% m/m and unch y/y Aug +1.0% m/m and -2.1% y/y. |
| JPN | 1850 ET | Japan Q3 GDP expected +0.4% q/q and +1.7% y/y, Q2 +0.9% q/q and +3.8% y/y. Q3 GDP deflator expected 0.5% y/y, Q2 -0.5% y/y. |
| 1850 ET | Japan Q3 GDP consumer spending expected +0.2% q/q, Q2 +0.7% q/q. Q3 GDP business spending expected +1.0% q/q, Q2 +1.3% q/q. | |
| 2330 ET | Revised Japan Sep industrial production, previous +1.5% m/m and +5.4% y/y. Sep capacity utilization, Aug 2.1% m/m. | |
| CHI | n/a | China Oct foreign direct investment expected +5.7% y/y, Sep +4.9% y/y. |
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR11/13/2013
| Company Name | Ticker | Time | Event Description | Period | Estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Progressive Corp/The | PGR US | Bef-mkt | October 2013 Sales and Revenue Release | 2013 | |
| Macy's Inc | M US | 8:00 | Q3 2014 Earnings Release | Q3 2014 | 0.39 |
| Starbucks Corp | SBUX US | 9:00 | Arbitration with Kraft | ||
| Pentair Ltd | PNR US | 9:30 | Investor & Analyst Day | Y 2013 | |
| Macy's Inc | M US | 10:30 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| JDS Uniphase Corp | JDSU US | 12:00 | Annual General Meeting | Y 2013 | |
| WW Grainger Inc | GWW US | 13:00 | Analyst Meeting | 2013 | |
| NetApp Inc | NTAP US | 16:01 | Q2 2014 Earnings Release | Q2 2014 | 0.626 |
| Cisco Systems Inc | CSCO US | 16:30 | Q1 2014 Earnings Release | Q1 2014 | 0.505 |
| Cisco Systems Inc | CSCO US | 16:30 | Q1 2014 Earnings Call | Q1 2014 | |
| NetApp Inc | NTAP US | 17:30 | Q2 2014 Earnings Call | Q2 2014 |
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