Financial Tides -- A Stock Market Investing Newsletter by Jim Van Meerten: 2012-09-30

Saturday, October 6, 2012

3 Stocks hitting new highs

Today I used the Barchart New High list for stocks trading over 100,000 shares a day and sorted for frequency. The stocks near the top of the list that deserve your attention are Fidelity National Financial (FNF), EXLService (EXLS) and Capitalsource Inc (CSE)

Fidelity National Financial (FNF)

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
18 new highs and up 17.34% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 87.50%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 22.03
Recently traded at 22.60 with a 50 day moving average of 19.64

EXLService Holdings (EXLS)

Barchart technical indicators:

96% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
17 new highs and up 12.51% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 73.26%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 29.37
Recently traded at 29.76 with a 50 day moving average of 26.93

Capitalsource Inc (CSE)

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
17 new highs and up 11.73% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 76.41%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 7.72
Recently traded at 7.81 with a 50 day moving average of 7.18

Barchart Morning Call 10/5

Barchart Morning Call

BC - Fri Oct 05, 7:00AM CDT

Overnight Developments

Dec E-mini S&Ps are trading slightly higher ahead of this morning's Sep unemployment report, which is expected to show a +115,000 increase in payrolls and a 0.1 point increase in the unemployment rate to 8.2%. European stocks are up 1.07% on continued optimism over ECB President Draghi's strong support yesterday for the euro and for the ECB' bond-buying program. Asian stocks today closed mostly higher. Commodity prices are moderately lower today by -0.32% with Nov crude oil down -0.98%, Dec gold down -0.26%, Dec copper down -0.08%, and agriculture prices mostly lower. The dollar index is slightly higher after yesterday's losses. EUR/USD is down -0.07% and USD/JPY is unchanged. Dec 10-year T-notes are down 3 ticks.
India's S&P CNX Nifty index today closed -0.8% lower after recovering from a 16% slide caused by erroneous trades.
The Bank of Japan today left its asset purchase target unchanged at 55 trillion yen ($700 billion) after its 2-day policy meeting, which was in line with market expectations. The BOJ just boosted its stimulus program last month. The BOJ is facing increased political pressure to further boost its quantitative easing program as Economy Minister Seiji Maehara attended today's BOJ meeting, the first time in 9 years that a minister has attended a BOJ policy meeting. The BOJ today left unchanged its interest rate target of zero to 0.10% and its monthly bond purchase target of 1.8 trillion yen.
The German Aug factory orders report of -1.3% m/m and -4.8% y/y was weaker than market expectations of -0.5% m/m and -4.3% y/y.

Japan's Aug leading index of 93.6 was up from 93.0 in July and was 0.1 point stronger than market expectations of 93.5. The Aug coincident index of 93.6 was down -0.2 points from July and was in line with market expectations.
Market Comments

Dec E-mini S&Ps this morning are slightly higher by +1.50 points (+0.10%) as the market gets support from the 1.07% rally in the Euro Stoxx 50 index this morning and from hopes for a decent U.S. payroll report this morning. The S&P 500 index on Thursday closed with fairly sharp gains: S&P 500 +0.72%, Dow Jones +0.60%, Nasdaq 100 +0.35%. Bullish factors included stronger than expected U.S. economic data and ECB President Draghi's comments in strong support of the euro and keeping the Eurozone intact. U.S. initial unemployment claims rose +4,000 to 367,000, which showed a slightly stronger labor market than market expectations for a report of 370,000. U.S. Aug factory orders fell -5.2%, which was a little stronger than market expectations of -5.9%.
Dec 10-year T-notes this morning are down 3 ticks. Dec 10-year T-note prices on Thursday closed lower: TYZ2 -10, FVZ2 -3.25. T-note prices closed lower on the stronger-than-expected initial claims report, some nervousness that Friday's payroll report may be stronger than expected after Wednesday's ADP report of +162,000, and reduced safe-haven demand with the rally in the stock market and ECB President Draghi's comments in support of the euro.
The dollar index this morning is slightly higher by +0.04 points (+0.05%), seeing some stabilization after yesterday's sharp sell-off. EUR/USD is down -0.0009 (-0.07%) and USD/JPY is unchanged. The dollar index on Thursday closed sharply lower: Dollar index -0.63 (-0.78%), EUR/USD +0.113 (+0.88%), USD/JPY -0.01 (-0.01%). EUR/USD received a sharp boost on Thursday after the ECB at its meeting left rates unchanged against hopes by some market participants for a rate cut to 0.50%. In addition, ECB President Draghi voiced strong support for the euro and said that the ECB is ready to engage in its bond-buying bailout program as soon as Spain makes a formal request and all the conditions are in place. The ECB has agreed to purchase an uncapped amount of 1-3 year bonds in the secondary market of troubled countries under its "Outright Monetary Transactions" program.
Nov WTI crude oil prices this morning are down 0.90 (-0.98%) and Nov gasoline is down -0.0140 (-0.48%) on ideas yesterday's rally was overdone. Nov crude oil and gasoline on Thursday closed sharply higher: CLX2 +3.39 (+3.85%), RBV2 +0.1334 (+4.77%). Bullish factors included the sharp sell-off in the dollar index, Turkish-Syrian shelling, and continued worries about tight gasoline inventories on the east and west coasts. Gasoline prices continue to get a boost from refinery outages that have caused tight gasoline inventories in the Northeastern U.S. and particularly in California. Some gas stations in the Los Angeles area are actually running out of gasoline to sell because of refinery problems. Exxon's Torrance refinery is just getting back into operation the loss of power on Oct 1, Phillips 66 is scheduled to perform maintenance on its two California refineries this week, and a pipeline delivering crude oil to refineries in northern California was shut down last month due to high levels of chloride in the oil. Turkey's parliament on Thursday approved a 1-year mandate allowing the Turkish military to launch military operations outside Turkey. That could result in more of the cross-border shelling seen this week. Moreover, Syria's shelling of a Turkish village this week was effectively an attack on NATO as a whole since Turkey is a member of NATO. Fighting in the area could disrupt the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline that Iraq uses to export oil and that runs through southern Turkey near the Syrian border.

For the complete subscription version of this daily report (plus a 13-page big-picture weekly report), along with the earliest possible delivery in the morning, please visit http://www.barchart.com/register/crbfms_usmc.php
Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (ranked by market cap): STZ-Constellation (Consensus:$0.54), RBN-Robbins & Myers (0.96).
Global Financial Calendar

Friday 10/5/12
United States
0830 ET	Sep non-farm payrolls expected +115,000, Aug +96,000. Sep private payrolls expected +128,000, Aug +103,000. Sep manufacturing payrolls expected unch, Aug was -15,000. Sep unemployment rate expected +0.1 to 8.2%, Aug -0.2 to 8.1%.
0830 ET	Sep average hourly earnings expected +0.2% m/m and +1.8% y/y, Aug unch m/m and +1.7% y/y. Sep average weekly hours expected 34.4 hours, Aug 34.4.
1000 ET	NY Fed President William Dudley delivers welcoming remarks at distressed real estate conference at the NY Fed.
1300 ET	Fed Governor Elizabeth Duke speaks on neighborhood stabilization at NY Fed.
1500 ET	Aug consumer credit expected +$7.25 bln, July -$3.276 bln.
Japan
n/a	BOJ policy decision after 2-day meeting.
0100 ET	Japan Aug coincident index expected 93.6, July 93.8. Aug leading index expected 93.5, July 93.0.
Germany
0600 ET	German Aug factory orders expected -0.5% m/m and -4.3% y/y, July -0.5% m/m and -4.5% y/y.
CHI
n/a	Chinese markets closed for Golden Week.

Barchart.com provides Financial Quotes, Charts and Technical Analysis for Stock and Commodity Traders.

Transdigm Group - TDG - Barchart Chart of the Day

Barchart.coms Chart of the Day - Transdigm Group (TDG)

Barchart Research Team - BC - Thu Oct 04, 4:05PM CDT

The "Chart of the Day" is Transdigm Group (TDG), which showed up on Thursday's Barchart "All-Time High" and "Gap Up" lists. Transdigm on Thursday posted a new all-time high of $149.27 and closed +2.50%. TrendSpotter has been long since Aug 16 at $132.33. Transdigm was last featured on "Chart of the Day" as of the Jan 31, 2012 close at $104.53. In recent news on the stock, RBC Capital on Sep 25 reiterated its Outperform rating on Transdigm, raised its target to $170 from $146, and said that future acquisitions by the company could propel the stock to $200 by 2015. Transdigm Group, with a market cap of $7.3 billion, is a leading global supplier of highly engineered components for use on nearly all commercial and military aircraft in service today.

tdg_700

How we found the Chart of the Day:
We found the "Chart of the Day" by scanning the Barchart "All Time High" list. In order to get to that list, we first clicked on the Stocks menu item on the Barchart home page, then on the "All Time Highs" menu item on the left menu bar. We then sorted the list by percentage gainers by clicking on the "Percent" column title. A stock that has posted a new All-Time high is typically showing strong upside momentum.
The status of Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.

TrendSpotter: Buy
Short-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
Medium-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
Long-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
Overall Average 100% Buy

Barchart links for further information:

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Technical Analysis
Technicals Summary
Trader's Cheat Sheet™

Barchart Opinions
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Barchart Snapshot
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Company Info
Company Profile
Key Statistics
Ratios
Income Statement-Quarterly
Income Statement-Annual
Balance Sheet-Current
Balance Sheet-Annual

Chart of the Day Archive
View Past Chart of the Day Reports

Thursday, October 4, 2012

3 NASDAQ 100 Picks

Today I sorted the NASDAQ 100 stocks to find the 3 with the best Barchart technical indicators and found Alexion Pharmaceuticals (ALXN), Amgen (AMGN) and Express Scripts (ESRX) near the top of the list:

Alexion Pharmaceuticals (ALXN)

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
12 new highs and up 9.63% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 73.40%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 115.33
Recently traded at 118.80 with a 50 day moving average of 108.35

Amgen (AMGN)

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
7 new highs and up 3.28% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 71.23%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 85.90
Recently traded at 87.09 with a 50 day moving average of 83.20

Express Scripts (ESRX)

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
4 new highs and up 3.69% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 66.06%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 63.27
Recently traded at 65.35 with a 50 day moving average of 61.41

Barchart Morning Call 10/4

Barchart Morning Call

BC - 1 hr 58 mins ago

Overnight Developments

Dec E-mini S&Ps this morning are mildly higher by +0.45% on some continued support from yesterday's stronger-than-expected ADP and ISM non-manufacturing reports. Both the BOE and ECB left their policies unchanged today as expected. European stocks are up +0.11% and Asian stocks closed mostly higher today. Commodity prices are moderately higher today by +0.45% on average, with Nov crude oil up +0.67%, Dec gold up +0.60%, Dec copper up +0.52%, and agriculture prices trading mostly higher. The dollar index is mildly lower by -0.30% today while EUR/USD is up +0.29%. USD/JPY is up +0.14%. Dec 10-year T-notes are down 3 ticks.
The ECB at its policy meeting today left its refinancing rate unchanged at 0.75% as expected. ECB President Draghi will hold a press conference starting shortly and market participants are hoping to hear more details on the ECB's bond-buying bailout program, which has yet to be formally requested by Spain.
The Bank of England after its policy meeting today announced an unchanged monetary policy. The base rate remained unchanged at 0.50% and the bond purchase target was unchanged at 375 billion pounds. The meeting outcome was in line with market expectations. The BOE's asset purchase program will run out next month, forcing the BOE to decide next month whether to extend that program.
There was a report today that Spain, the Netherlands and Finland want to postpone the decision on releasing the next 31.5 billion euro tranche of Greek bailout aid until the Nov 12 meeting of Eurozone finance ministers. The finance ministers had originally been hoping to make that decision at their meeting early next week (Oct 8-9).
Cyprus will reportedly need an 11 billion euro bailout package to cover a bank bailout and government finances. Cyprus originally requested a bailout back in June and the exact amount is still under discussion.
Spain today sold 3.99 billion euros of bonds with various maturities. The bid cover ratios (bids submitted divided by bids accepted) were adequate at 1.98 for the 3-year bonds (versus only 1.56 times last month), 2.03 for the 2-year bonds, and 2.47 for the 5-year bonds.
A World Bank official signaled that the Bank will downgrade Asian's growth forecast in a regional Asian report to be released this coming Monday (Oct 8). The World Bank in May downgraded its 2012 growth forecast for developing East Asia (which excludes Japan and India) to +7.6% from the November forecast of +7.8%. The region grew by +8.2% in 2011.

Turkey for the second day launched artillery fire into Syria after Syrian forces shelled a Turkish town on Wednesday. The Turkish parliament is set to vote later today on whether to give a 1-year mandate to the Turkish military to allow military operations outside Turkey. Turkish officials said Turkey does not intend to go to war with Syria but is "capable of protecting its borders and will retaliate when necessary." The Turkish 2-year bond yield rose sharply today by 16 bp to 7.73% and the Turkish lira has fallen by about 1% since yesterday when the Syrian shelling occurred. NATO has pledged support for its Turkish ally.
Market Comments

Dec E-mini S&Ps this morning are up +6.50 points (+0.45%) on improved U.S. economic sentiment after yesterday's stronger-than-expected ADP and ISM non-manufacturing reports. The S&P 500 index on Wednesday closed higher: S&P 500 +0.36%, Dow Jones +0.09%, Nasdaq 100 +0.70%. Stocks were boosted by stronger-than-expected ADP and ISM manufacturing reports. Sep ADP employment rose +162,000, which was stronger than the expected report of +140,000, although Aug was revised lower to +189,000 from +201,000 and July was revised lower to +156,000 from +173,000. The Sep ISM non-manufacturing index rose by 1.4 points to 55.1 from 53.7 in Aug, which was stronger than expectations for a -0.3 point decline to 53.4. On the bearish side, stocks were undercut by China's Sep ISM non-manufacturing index, which fell by 2.6 points to 53.7.
Dec 10-year T-notes this morning are down 3 ticks on the higher U.S. and European stock markets. Dec 10-year T-note prices on Tuesday closed higher: TYZ2 +3.5 FVZ2 +2. T-notes closed mildly higher as concerns continued about global economic growth.
The dollar index this morning is mildly lower by -0.24 points (-0.30%) while EUR/USD is up +0.0038 (+0.29%). USD/JPY is up +0.11 (0.14%). The dollar index on Wednesday closed slightly higher: Dollar index +0.19 (+0.24%), EUR/USD -0.0015 (-0.12%), USD/JPY +0.33 (+0.42%). The dollar index was boosted by the strong U.S. ADP and ISM manufacturing reports.
Nov WTI crude oil prices this morning are up +0.59 (+0.67%) on some continued short-covering after the sharp losses seen early this week. Nov gasoline is up +0.0463 (+1.65%) this morning. Nov crude oil and gasoline on Wednesday closed sharply lower: CLX2 -3.89 (-4.23%), RBV2 -0.0737 (-2.57%). Bearish factors included the 11,000 barrel/day increase in U.S. total crude oil production to a new 15-3/4 year high, (2) the -0.3% decline in gasoline consumption to 18.3 million barrels per day, and (3) heavy long liquidation pressure with crude oil falling to a new 2-month low. In addition, there were reduced concerns about an eventual military attack on Iran as economic conditions deteriorate in Iran and create problems for the Iranian government in pursuing its nuclear program.

For the complete subscription version of this daily report (plus a 13-page big-picture weekly report), along with the earliest possible delivery in the morning, please visit http://www.barchart.com/register/crbfms_usmc.php
Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (ranked by market cap): ISCA-International Speedway (Consensus:$0.08).
Global Financial Calendar

Thursday 10/4/12
United States
0730 ET	Sep Challenger job cuts, Aug -36.9% y/y.
0830 ET	Weekly initial unemployment claims expected +11,000 to 370,000, previous -26,000 to 359,000. Weekly continuing claims expected +4,000 to 3.275 mln, previous -4,000 to 3.271 mln.
0830 ET	USDA weekly Net Export Sales.
1000 ET	Aug factory orders expected -5.9% m/m, July +2.8% m/m.
1100 ET	Treasury announces 3-year, 30-year and 30-year auctions for Oct 9-11.
1400 ET	FOMC Sep 12-13 meeting minutes (QE3 announcement).
1630 ET	Weekly money supply report and Fed balance sheet.
2000 ET	St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speaks on U.S. economy in Memphis, TN.
United Kingdom
0700 ET	Bank of England announcement after policy meeting; base rate expected unchanged at 0.50%, asset purchase target expected unchanged at 375 bln pounds.
Euro-Zone
0745 ET	ECB announces decision after policy meeting; main refinancing rate expected unchanged at 0.75%.
CHI
n/a	Chinese markets closed for Golden Week.

Barchart.com provides Financial Quotes, Charts and Technical Analysis for Stock and Commodity Traders.

Constellation Brands - STZ - Barchart Chart of the Day

Barchart.coms Chart of the Day - Constellation Brands (STZ)

Barchart Research Team - BC - Wed Oct 03, 4:37PM CDT

The "Chart of the Day" is Constellation Brands (STZ), which showed up on Wednesday's Barchart "All-Time High" and "Gap Up" lists. Constellation Brands on Wednesday posted a new all-time high of $34.65 and closed +2.66%. TrendSpotter took a profit in early September on a July-Aug long position and then turned long again on Sep 19 at $33.16. In recent news on the stock, Goldman Sachs on Sep 20 reiterated its Buy rating on Constellation Brands and raised its target to $40 from $33. Constellation Brands (STZ), with a market cap of $5.7 billion, is a leading international producer and marketer of beverage alcohol brands, with a broad portfolio across the wine, spirits and imported beer categories. Well-known brands in Constellation's portfolio include: Corona Extra, Pacifico, St. Pauli Girl, Black Velvet, and Fleischmann's.

stz_700_03

TrendSpotter: Buy
Short-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
Medium-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
Long-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
Overall Average 100% Buy

Chart of the Day Archive
View Past Chart of the Day Reports

Wednesday, October 3, 2012

3 Small Cap Picks - ZLC,UHT,TYL

Today I sorted the S&P 600 Small Cap Index stocks to find the 3 with the best Barchart technical indicators and found Zale (ZLC), Universal Health Realty Income Trust (UHT) and Tyler Technologies (TYL):

Zale (ZLC)

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
8 new highs and up 30.07% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 76.28%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 6.49
Recently traded at 7.20 with a 50 day moving average of 4.73

Universal Health Realty Income Trusts (UHT)

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
15 new highs and up 9.75% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 76.02%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 46.05
Recently traded at 47.38 with a 50 day moving average of 44.07

Tyler Technologies (TYL)

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
11 new highs and up 11.65% in the last month
Relative strength Index 83.17%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 44.21
Recently traded at 44.87 with a 50 day moving average of 40.81

Barchart Morning Call 10/3

Barchart Morning Call

BC - Wed Oct 03, 7:00AM CDT

Overnight Developments

Dec E-mini S&Ps this morning are little changed as the markets settle down to await tonight's Obama-Romney debate and Friday's Sep unemployment report. Overnight economic news has been largely offsetting with bullish economic news including this morning's surge in U.S. mortgage applications and the stronger-than-expected Eurozone Aug retail sales reports. Bearish economic news includes last night's 1.5 point drop in the China services PMI to 52.2 and a downward revision in Germany's final-Sep services PMI to 49.7. The Euro Stoxx 50 index this morning is slightly lower by -0.09%. The Chinese stock market remained closed today for this week's Golden Week holiday. The Japanese stock market today closed -0.45% on the weak Chinese services PMI report. Commodity prices this morning are mildly lower by -0.33% on average with Nov crude oil down -0.62%, Dec gold +0.28%, Dec copper -0.53%, grain prices down about -0.9%, livestock higher, and softs mixed. The dollar index is up +0.14% while EUR/USD is down -0.12%. Dec 10-year T-notes are up 3 ticks.
China's Sep non-manufacturing PMI was reported last night at 53.7, which was down by 2.6 points from August's report of 56.3 and was the weakest level for the series that has a short history back to March 2011.
The German final-Sep services PMI was revised lower to 49.7 from 50.6. However, the Eurozone final-Sep services PMI was revised slightly higher by 0.1 point to 46.1 from 46.0.
The UK Sep services PMI fell by 1.5 point to 52.2 from 53.7 and was weaker than market expectations for a -0.7 point decline to 53.0.
The Eurozone Aug retail sales report of +0.1% m/m and -1.3% y/y was slightly stronger than market expectations of -0.1% m/m and -1.9% y/y. In addition, July was revised higher to +0.1% m/m and -1.4% y/y from -0.2% m/m and -1.7% y/y.
The Australian dollar AUD/USD fell by another -0.9% today due to yesterday's generally unexpected 25 bp rate cut to 3.25% by the Australian central bank and by expectations for another 25 bp rate cut within the next 1-2 months.

The U.S. MBA mortgage applications report released this morning was very strong, although that wasn't surprising considering that the 30-year mortgage rate last week fell by 9 bp to a new record low of 3.40%. The MBA mortgage applications index rose by +16.6%, with the purchase sub-index up +3.9% and the refinancing sub-index soaring by +19.6%.
Market Comments

Dec E-mini S&Ps this morning are slightly lower by -0.50 points (-0.03%). Bearish factors include the small -0.09% decline in the Euro Stoxx 50 this morning, the weak Chinese services PMI, and the downward revision in Germany's services PMI to 49.7 from 50.6. However, there has been positive news overnight as well with U.S. mortgage applications surging 16.6% and with a mildly stronger than expected Eurozone Aug retail sales report of +0.1% m/m and -1.3% y/y. The S&P 500 index on Tuesday closed narrowly mixed: S&P 500 +0.09%, Dow Jones -0.24%, Nasdaq 100 +0.18%. The stock market was pressured during most of the day by Spanish Prime Minister Rajoy's denial that a bailout request is imminent in a seeming rejection of the Reuters report to the contrary late Monday. However, the stock market was able to rebound higher on a rally in Apple and on optimism about the rise in U.S. Sep vehicle sales to 14.88 million units from 14.46 million in Aug (versus expectations of 14.50 million). The U.S. stock market also received a boost from the Australian central bank's 25 bp interest rate cut to 3.25%, the lowest level since 2009.
Dec 10-year T-notes this morning are slightly higher by +3 ticks. Dec 10-year T-note prices on Tuesday closed slightly higher: TYZ2 +2, FVZ2 +1.25. T-note prices continued to get a boost from Fed Chairman Bernanke's strong defense of the Fed's monetary policy at a speech on Monday.
The dollar index this morning is slightly higher by +0.11 points (+0.14%) on the generally calm markets overnight and reduced safe-haven demand. EUR/USD is down -0.0016 (-0.12%) as the market awaits tomorrow's ECB meeting, where there is a small chance for a rate cut. USD/JPY is up +0.07 (+0.09%). The dollar index on Tuesday closed slightly lower: Dollar index -0.08 (-0.10%), EUR/USD +0.0032 (+0.25%), USD/JPY +0.17 (+0.22%). The dollar was undercut by the continued generally calm financial environment and by expectations that Spain will request a bailout within a matter of days despite Spanish Prime Minister Rajoy's denials.
Nov WTI crude oil prices this morning are down -0.57 (-0.62%) and Nov gasoline is down -0.0424 (-1.48%) on a continuation of yesterday's bearish trend. Nov crude oil and gasoline prices on Tuesday closed lower: CLX2 -0.59 (-0.64%), RBV2 -0.0509 (-1.74%). Bearish factors included the 462,000 barrel increase in API crude oil inventories, long liquidation pressure in gasoline, and ideas that gasoline supplies will rise as refineries restart operations. The Trainer refinery in Pennsylvania is near planned rates and the Saint John refinery in New Brunswick should be back up and running by the end of the month after planned maintenance. Yesterday's API report showed a 462,000 increase in crude oil inventories, a 59,000 barrel decline in gasoline inventories, and a 321,000 barrel decline in distillates. The market consensus for today's DOE report is for a 1.5 million barrel increase in crude oil inventories, a 375,000 barrel decline in gasoline inventories, a 450,000 barrel decline in distillate inventories, and an unchanged refinery utilization rate of 87.4%.

For the complete subscription version of this daily report (plus a 13-page big-picture weekly report), along with the earliest possible delivery in the morning, please visit http://www.barchart.com/register/crbfms_usmc.php
Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (ranked by market cap): MON-Monsanto (Consensus:$-0.44), MAR-Marriott (0.40), FDO-Family Dollar (0.75).
Global Financial Calendar

Wednesday 10/3/12
United States
0700 ET	Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous +2.8% with purchase sub-index +0.7% and refi sub-index +3.3%.
0815 ET	Sep ADP employment change expected +140,000, Aug +201,000.
1000 ET	Sep ISM non-manufacturing index expected -0.3 to 53.4, Aug +1.1 to 53.7.
1030 ET	DOE Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
Germany
0355 ET	German final-Sep services PMI expected unrevised at 50.6.
Euro-Zone
0400 ET	Eurozone final-Sep services PMI expected unrevised at 46.0. Eurozone final-Sep composite PMI expected unrevised at 46.0.
0500 ET	Eurozone Aug retail sales expected -0.1% m/m and -1.9% y/y, July -0.2% m/m and -1.8% y/y.
United Kingdom
0430 ET	UK Sep services PMI expected 53.0, Aug 53.7.

Barchart.com provides Financial Quotes, Charts and Technical Analysis for Stock and Commodity Traders.

Novo Nordisk - NVO - Barchart Chart of the Day

Barchart.com's Chart of the Day - Novo Nordisk (NVO)

Barchart Research Team - BC - Tue Oct 02, 5:13PM CDT

The "Chart of the Day" is Novo Nordisk (NVO), which showed up on Tuesday's Barchart "All-Time High" list. Novo Nordisk on Tuesday posted a new all-time high of $162.13 and closed +1.47%. TrendSpotter just took a profit on a long trade in early September and then turned long again on Sep 21 at 158.96. In recent news on the stock, UBS on Sep 21 upgraded Novo Nordisk to buy from Neutral. Novo Nordisk, with a market cap of $91 billion, is a world leader in insulin and diabetes care and also manufactures and markets a variety of other pharmaceutical products.

nvo_700

TrendSpotter: Buy
Short-Term Indicators: 80% Buy
Medium-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
Long-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
Overall Average 96% Buy

Chart of the Day Archive
View Past Chart of the Day Reports

Tuesday, October 2, 2012

My 3 Mid Cap Picks

Today I took the S&P 400 Mid Cap Stock list and sorted to find 3 with the best Barchart technical indicators and found TW Telecom (TWTC), Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) and Neustar (NSR):

TW Telecom (TWTC)

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
14 new highs and up 9.34% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 75.42%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 26.57
Recently traded at 27.50 with a 50 day moving average of 25.16

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN)

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
4 new highs and up 5.07% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 66.77%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 150.69
Recently traded at 155.45 with a 50 day moving average of 142.64

Neustar (NSR)

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving average
11 new highs and up 8.44% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 68.89%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 39.13
Recently traded at 40.76 with a 50 day moving average of 37.57

Barchart Morning Call 10/2

Barchart Morning Call

BC - 2 hrs 26 mins ago

Overnight Developments

Dec E-mini S&Ps this morning are moderately higher by +0.50%, boosted by a 0.60% rally in European stocks, a 12 bp decline in Spanish bond yields, and a 25 bp rate cut in Australia. The Japanese stock market today closed slightly lower by -0.12% but most other Asian stock market closed higher. The Chinese stock market was closed again for this week's holiday. Commodity prices this morning are mildly lower by -0.11% with Nov crude oil +0.12%, Dec gold -0.11%, Dec copper +0.21%, grain prices lower, and livestock and softs prices mixed. The dollar index is slightly lower by -0.14% while EUR/USD is up +0.26%. Dec 10-year T-notes are down 2 ticks.
The Australian central bank today cut its overnight cash-rate target by 25 bp to 3.25%, the lowest level since 2009. The market had been discounting only about a one-third chance of a rate cut today. The market is now discounting about a 60% chance of another 25 bp rate cut next month to 3.00%, which would match the 50-year low seen during the 2008/09 global financial crisis. The Australian dollar today dropped about 0.5% on the news. Australian central bank chief Glenn Stevens said that the rate cut was taken in response to weakness in the labor market, subdued inflation, and a "modest" expansion in the U.S. economy. Mr. Stevens also noted that Chinese economic growth has slowed and that key commodity prices for Australia remain significantly lower than earlier in the year. Australia's Q2 GDP growth slowed to +2.4% from +5.6% in Q1.
Spain's 10-year bond yield fell 13 bp to 5.75% today after Reuters reported late Monday that Spain is preparing to formally ask the Eurozone for a bailout for its government finances. Reuters cited four unidentified European officials for its report. However, Prime Minister Rajoy told regional leaders at a meeting today that he will not request a bailout this weekend.
Japan's new Economy Minister Seiji Maehara today pledged to closely watch the BOJ to ensure that it meets a 1% inflation goal.

The Eurozone Aug PPI report of +0.9% m/m and +2.7% y/y was slightly stronger than market expectations of +0.6% m/m and +2.6% y/y and was up from July's +0.3% m/m and +1.6% y/y.
Market Comments

Dec E-mini S&Ps this morning are up +7.25 points (+0.50%) on a +0.60% rally in the Euro Stoxx 50, a 12 bp drop in the Spanish 10-year bond yield, and the 25 bp rate cut by Australia's central bank. The Australian stock market today closed up +1.01%. The S&P 500 index on Monday closed mildly higher: S&P 500 +0.27%, Dow Jones +0.58%, Nasdaq 100 -0.18%. Bullish factors included the much stronger-than-expected Sep ISM manufacturing index of +1.9 points to 51.5 (versus expectations of +0.2 to 49.8) and the 1.82% rally in the Euro Stoxx 50 index on last Friday's news that the Spanish bank bailout requirements are now 59.3 billion euros, down from the previous estimate of 62 billion euros.
Dec 10-year T-notes this morning are down 2 ticks on reduced safe-haven demand with the rally in stocks. Dec 10-year T-note prices on Monday closed slightly higher: TYZ2 +3, FVZ2 +1. The T-note market was encouraged by Fed Chairman Bernanke's comments in which he reiterated support for the Fed's extraordinarily easy monetary policy.
The dollar index this morning is down -0.11 points (-0.14%) on reduced safe-haven demand while EUR/USD is up +0.0033 (+0.26%). USD/JPY is up +0.14 points (+0.18%). The dollar index on Monday closed slightly lower: Dollar index -0.11 (-0.14%), EUR/USD +0.0028 (+0.22%), USD/JPY +0.03 (+0.04%). The dollar was undercut by reduced safe-haven demand with the rally in stocks. EUR/USD received a boost from last Friday's news that the Spanish bank bailout will be 59.3 billion euros, less than the earlier estimate of 62.0 billion euros.
Nov WTI crude oil prices this morning are slightly higher by +0.11 points (+0.12%) on a boost from the weaker dollar and higher global stocks. However, Nov gasoline is down -0.0279 (-0.96%) on some continued technical weakness after the sharp 2-week rally. Nov crude oil prices on Monday closed mildly higher while gasoline closed unchanged: CLX2 +0.29 (+0.31%), RBV2 unch. Crude oil prices received a boost from the mildly lower dollar and the much stronger-than-expected U.S. ISM manufacturing index report of +1.9 to 51.5. Gasoline prices were unable to rally due to long liquidation pressure after the sharp 2-week rally. The market consensus for Wednesday's DOE report are for a 1.5 million barrel increase in crude oil inventories, a 375,000 barrel decline in gasoline inventories, a 450,000 barrel decline in distillate inventories, and an unchanged refinery utilization rate of 87.4%.

For the complete subscription version of this daily report (plus a 13-page big-picture weekly report), along with the earliest possible delivery in the morning, please visit http://www.barchart.com/register/crbfms_usmc.php
Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (ranked by market cap): MOS-Mosaic (Consensus:$1.16), AYI-Acuity Brands (0.93), CUB-Cubic corp (0.75%).
Global Financial Calendar

Tuesday 10/2/12
United States
0745 ET	ICSC (Int'l Council of Shopping Centers) weekly retailer sales.
0855 ET	Redbook weekly retailer sales.
0945 ET	Sep NY ISM manufacturing index, Aug 51.4.
1130 ET	Weekly 4-week T-bill auction.
1630 ET	API weekly U.S. oil statistics.
1700 ET	Sep total vehicle sales expected 14.50 mln, Aug 14.46 mln. Sep domestic vehicle sales expected 11.40 mln, Aug 11.54 mln.
United Kingdom
0200 ET	UK Sep nationwide house prices expected unch m/m and -0.7% y/y, Aug +1.3% m/m and -0.7% y/y.
0430 ET	UK Sep construction PMI expected 49.9, Aug 49.0.
Euro-Zone
0500 ET	Eurozone Aug PPI expected +0.6% m/m and +2.6% y/y, July +0.4% m/m and +1.8% y/y.
CHI
2100 ET	China Sep non-manufacturing PMI, Aug 56.3.

Barchart.com provides Financial Quotes, Charts and Technical Analysis for Stock and Commodity Traders.

Danaher - DHR - Barchart's Chart of the Day

Barchart.coms Chart of the Day - Danaher (DHR)

Barchart Research Team - BC - Mon Oct 01, 4:41PM CDT

The "Chart of the Day" is Danaher (DHR), which showed up on Monday's Barchart "All-Time High" list. Danaher on Monday posted a new all-time high of $57.15 and closed +1.99%. TrendSpotter has been long since Aug 1 at $53.10. In recent news on the stock, Janney Capital on Sep 13 initiated coverage on Danaher with a Buy rating and a target of $66. Danaher on Sep 17 announced the acquisition of Iris International for $19.50 per share or $338 million. Danaher Corp, with a market cap of $38 billion, sells a wide range of process/environmental controls and tools/components.

dhr_700

TrendSpotter: Buy
Short-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
Medium-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
Long-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
Overall Average 100% Buy

Chart of the Day Archive
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Transocean - RIG still not well

http://www.thestreet.com/story/11724385/1/transocean-still-in-deep-water.html

Monday, October 1, 2012

Hercules Offshore and Depomed buy signals

Today I added two stocks from the Barchart New High list to the Barchart Van Meerten Speculative portfolio: Hercules Offshore (HERO) and Depomed (DEPO):

Hercules Offshore (HERO)

Barchart technical indicators:

96% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
14 new highs and up 22.38% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 67.62%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 4.77
Recently traded at 5.06 with a 50 day moving average of 4.23

Depomed (DEPO)

Barchart technical indicators:

96% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
14 new highs and up 12.85% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 68.16%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 5.62
Recently traded at 5.98 with a 50 day moving average of 5.44

The Spectranetics Corp - SPNC - Buy Signals

Today I added The Spectranetics Corp (SPNC) to the Barchart Van Meerten New High Portfolio for extremely good upward momentum:

Barchart technical indicators:

96% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
17 new highs and up 22.40% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 82.49%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 14.30
Recently traded at 14.85 with a 50 day moving average of 12.45

My 3 Large Cap Picks

Today I screened the S&P 500 Large Cap Index stocks to find 3 with very good Barchart technical indicators and found Verisign (VRSN), Sysco (SYY) and Scripps Networks Interactive (SNI):

Verisign (VRSN)

Barchart technical indicators:

88% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
3 new highs and up 2.35% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 63.43%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 47.67
Recently traded at 48.84 with a 50 day moving average of 46.83

Sysco (SYY)

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving average
9 new highs and up 4.29% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 69.71%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 30.88
Recently traded at 61.59 with a 50 day moving average of 30.07

Scripps Networks Interactive (SNI)

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving average
8 new highs and up 5.92% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 63.63%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 60.42
Recently traded at 62.61 with a 50 day moving average of 58.97

Barchart Morning Call 10/1

Barchart Morning Call

BC - 2 hrs 14 mins ago

Overnight Developments

Dec E-mini S&Ps this morning are up +0.42% on the 1.23% rally in European stocks and relief that some of the overnight global economic data was a little better than expected. The European markets are awaiting a busy week on the European debt crisis as troika negotiations resume with Greece and as Eurozone officials continue to quietly deal with Spain on its bank bailout and possible need for a government bailout. Japanese stocks today closed -0.83%. The Chinese and Hong Kong stock markets were closed today for this week's Chinese holiday. Commodity prices are slightly lower this morning by -0.16% with Nov crude oil down -0.56%, Dec gold down -0.19%, Dec copper down -0.37%, and agriculture prices mixed. The dollar index this morning is down -0.22% while EUR/USD is up +0.21%. Dec 10-year T-notes are up 1.5 ticks.
China's Sep manufacturing PMI of +0.6 to 49.8 was slightly weaker than market expectations for a 0.9 point increase to 50.1. The report from the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and the National Bureau of Statistics was released on Saturday.
Japan's Q3 Tankan index for large manufacturers fell to -3 from -1 in Q2, which was slightly better than expectations for a decline to -0.4. The report was the fourth consecutive negative reading. The report indicated pessimism among Japanese manufacturing executives due to weak domestic demand and weak export demand from China and Europe. Weakness in exports threatens to tip Japan's economy into another mild recession.
German and Eurozone manufacturing PMI reports for September were revised slightly higher by 0.1 point to 47.4 and 46.1, respectively. The Eurozone manufacturing PMI has been below 50.0 for fourteen consecutive months.
The UK Sep manufacturing PMI of -1.2 to 48.4 was 0.6 points weaker than market expectations for a decline to 49.0.

The Eurozone Aug unemployment rate was in line with market expectations of 11.4%, which matched July's revised figure and was a record high for the series that has history back to 1990.
Market Comments

Dec E-mini S&Ps this morning are up +6.00 points (+0.42%) on support from the 1.23% rally in the Euro Stoxx 50 index. In addition, some of the overnight global economic data was a little better than expected. The S&P 500 index on Friday closed moderately lower: S&P 500 -0.45%, Dow Jones -0.36%, Nasdaq 100 -0.79%. The stock market fell on weaker than expected U.S. economic data that included Aug personal income of +0.1% (versus expectations of +0.2%), the Chicago PMI (-3.3 to 49.7 versus expectations of -0.2 to 52.8), and the final-Sep U.S. consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan (-0.9 to 78.3 from early-Sep's 79.2). The Aug personal spending report of +0.5% was strong and was in line with market expectations. The stock market received support from relief that the Spanish bank bailout figure of 59.3 bln euros was slightly lower than earlier estimates of 62 billion euros.
Dec 10-year T-notes this morning are up +1.5 ticks. Dec 10-year T-note prices on Friday closed little changed: TYZ2 -0.5, FVZ2 +1. T-note prices saw some underlying support from the weak U.S. economic data and some safe-haven demand with the sell-off in stocks.
The dollar index this morning is down -0.18 points (-0.22%) on reduced safe-haven demand with the rally in U.S. and European stocks. EUR/USD is up +0.0027 (+0.21%) and USD/JPY is virtually unchanged. The dollar index on Friday closed moderately lower: Dollar index +0.39 (+0.49%), EUR/USD -0.0053 (-0.41%), USD/JPY +0.35 (+0.45%). The dollar index saw some strength on a pickup in safe-haven demand with the sell-off in stocks. However, EUR/USD received support from news that the Spanish bank stress tests indicated a final bank bailout amount of 59.3 billion euros, which was less than earlier estimate of 62 billion euros and well below Spain's 100 billion euro bailout credit line from the Eurozone.
Nov WTI crude oil prices this morning are down -0.52 (-0.56%) and Nov gasoline is down -0.0081 (-0.28%) on the negative Chinese PMI manufacturing and Japanese tankan reports, which suggest continued weak demand for fuel in Asia. Nov crude oil and gasoline prices on Friday closed higher: CLX2 +0.34 (+0.37%), RBV2 +0.0229 (+0.79%). Oil prices rallied mildly on Friday on some continued short-covering after the sell-off seen in the past two weeks. Meanwhile, Nov gasoline prices consolidated below Thursday's 1-1/2 year high and closed moderately higher on continued support from very tight inventories in the Northeastern U.S. Overall U.S. gasoline inventories are tight at 4.1% below the 5-year seasonal average, but inventories in the Northeastern are particularly tight and fell to a 4-year low for this time of year due to refinery shut-downs in the U.S., Canada and Europe and a sharp drop in U.S. gasoline imports to NY harbor.

For the complete subscription version of this daily report (plus a 13-page big-picture weekly report), along with the earliest possible delivery in the morning, please visit http://www.barchart.com/register/crbfms_usmc.php
Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (ranked by market cap): FGP-FerrellGas (Consensus:-$0.43), CALM-Cal-Main Foods (0.35).
Global Financial Calendar

Monday 10/1/12
United States
1000 ET	Sep ISM manufacturing index expected +0.2 to 48.8, Aug -0.2 to 49.6. Sep ISM prices-paid sub-index expected +1.8 to 55.8, Aug 54.0.
1000 ET	Aug construction spending expected +0.5% m/m, July -0.9% m/m.
1100 ET	USDA weekly grain export inspections.
1130 ET	Weekly 3-mo and 6-mo T-bill auctions.
1230 ET	Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks on monetary policy in Indianapolis.
1600 ET	USDA Crop Progress
CHI
n/a	Chinese holidays Oct 1-5 for National Day.
Japan
0100 ET	Japan Sep vehicle sales, Aug +7.3% y/y.
2130 ET	Japan Aug labor cash earnings, July -1.6% y/y.
Germany
0355 ET	German final-Sep manufacturing PMI expected unrevised from preliminary 47.3
Euro-Zone
0400 ET	Eurozone final-Sep manufacturing PMI expected unrevised from preliminary 46.0.
0500 ET	Eurozone Aug unemployment rate expected 11.4%, July 11.3%.
United Kingdom
0430 ET	UK Sep manufacturing PMI expected 49.0, Aug 49.5.
0430 ET	UK Aug net consumer credit, July -200 mln pounds. Aug net lending secured on dwellings, July 1.1 bln pounds.
0430 ET	UK Aug mortgage approvals, July 47,300.
0430 ET	UK M4 money supply expected unch m/m and -4.3% y/y, July +0.5% m/m and -4.6% y/y.

Barchart.com provides Financial Quotes, Charts and Technical Analysis for Stock and Commodity Traders.

Syngenta - SYT - Barchart Chart of the Day

Barchart.coms Chart of the Day - Syngenta (SYT)

Barchart Research Team - BC - Fri Sep 28, 11:26PM CDT

The "Chart of the Day" is Syngenta (SYT), which showed up on Friday's Barchart "All-Time High" and "Gap Up" lists. Syngenta on Friday posted a new all-time high of $75.58 and closed up +0.85%. TrendSpotter has been long since Sep 6 at $69.84. In recent news on the stock, HSBC on Sep 28 raised its rating to Overweight from Neutral. On Sep 24, Syngenta said that it sees sales for key crops reaching $25 billion by the end of the decade from the current level of $22 billion. Syngenta, with a market cap of $35 billion, is a world-leading agribusiness. The company ranks first in crop protection, and third in the high-value commercial seeds market.

syt_700

TrendSpotter: Buy
Short-Term Indicators: 80% Buy
Medium-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
Long-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
Overall Average 96% Buy

Chart of the Day Archive
View Past Chart of the Day Reports