Friday, January 4, 2013

Barchart Morning Call 1/4


Overnight Developments
  • March E-mini S&Ps are unchanged ahead of this morning's U.S. Dec unemployment report (payrolls expected +150,000). European stocks are mildly lower by -0.34%. Asian stocks are narrowly mixed except for Japan's Nikkei index, which rallied +2.82% today. Commodity prices are sharply lower by -0.96% on a continued negative reaction to yesterday's FOMC minutes that showed that half of FOMC members anticipate ending QE3 by mid-year. Feb crude oil is down -1.32%, Feb gasoline is down -1.59%, Feb gold is down -2.60%, March copper is down -0.96%, and agriculture prices are trading mostly lower. The dollar index is up +0.57% as the market continues to react to the FOMC's tighter stance on QE3. EUR/USD is down -0.28% and USD/JPY is up sharply by +1.16%. March 10-year T-note prices are sharply lower by 12 ticks.
  • The next round of talks with Iran on its nuclear program will be held "very soon," according to the spokesman for EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, who is the lead negotiator for the talks.
  • China's Dec HSBC services PMI fell by 0.4 points to 51.7 from 52.1 in November.
  • The German Nov retail sales report of +1.2% m/m and -0.9% y/y was substantially stronger than market expectations of +0.8% m/m and -1.6% y/y. Oct was revised stronger to -1.3% m/m and +0.2% y/y from -2.8% m/m and -0.8% y/y.
  • The German final-Dec services PMI was revised slightly lower by 0.1 point to 52.0 from 52.1. The final-Dec Eurozone services PMI was revised slightly lower to 47.2 from 47.3.
  • the UK Dec services PMI fell by 1.3 points to 48.9 from 50.2 and was weaker than market expectations for a report of unchanged at 50.2.
  • The Eurozone Dec CPI was unchanged from Nov at +2.2% y/y and was slightly above market expectations of +2.1% y/y.
    Market Comments
    • March E-mini S&Ps this morning are unchanged as the market treads water ahead of today's Dec unemployment report. The S&P 500 index on Thursday overcame early weakness and moved up to a 2-3/4 month high on the stronger-than-expected Dec ADP employment change, but then fell back and closed lower after the FOMC Dec 11-12 meeting minutes showed that Fed members will probably end quantitative easing sometime this year. Closes: S&P 500 -0.21%, Dow Jones -0.15%, Nasdaq -0.52%.
    • March 10-year T-notes this morning are down by another 12 ticks. March 10-year T-note prices on Thursday tumbled to a 2-1/4 month low and closed lower on speculation that Friday's Dec non-farm payrolls may be stronger than expected when the Dec ADP employment change rose by +215,000, the most in 10 months, and after the FOMC Dec 11-12 meeting minutes suggested the Fed may end their QE3 bond buying sometime this year. Closes: TYH3 -16.5, FVH3 -7.75. The 10-year T-note yield shot up to a 7-3/4 month high of 1.912%.
    • The dollar index this morning is up +0.46 points (+0.57%) on hopes for a strong U.S. payroll report today and on yesterday's indication of a tighter-than-expected FOMC stance towards QE3. EUR/USD is down -0.0036 (-0.28%) and USD/JPY is up 1.01 (+1.16%). The dollar index on Thursday rallied to a 3-week high and closed higher on the improved foreign investment prospects for the U.S. after the fiscal cliff resolution along with the FOMC Dec 11-12 meeting minutes that suggest the Fed may end their QE3 measures sometime this year, which would be dollar supportive. USD/JPY rallied to a fresh 2-1/2 year high on speculation Japanese Prime Minister Abe will pursue measures to weaken the yen. Closes: Dollar index +0.537 (+0.67%), EUR/USD -0.00107 (-0.08%), USD/JPY +0.203 (+0.23%).
    • Feb WTI crude oil prices this morning are down -$1.23 (-1.32%) and Feb gasoline is down -0.0446 (-1.59%). Feb crude oil and gasoline prices on Thursday closed mixed as crude oil was undercut by dollar strength, although gasoline closed higher on the prospects for increased consumption after Dec ADP employment rose by 215,000, the most in 10 months. The market consensus for Friday's weekly DOE report is for a -500,000 bbl decline in crude oil inventories, a +2 million barrel increase in gasoline inventories, a +1 million rise in distillate inventories, and a +0.4 point increase in the refinery utilization rate to 90.7%. Closes: CLG3 -0.15 (-0.16%), RBG3 +0.0026 (+0.09%).
    • For the complete subscription version of this daily report (plus a 13-page big-picture weekly report), along with the earliest possible delivery in the morning, please visit http://www.barchart.com/register/crbfms_usmc.php
      Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (ranked by market cap): MOS-Mosaic (consensus $0.88).
      Global Financial Calendar
      Friday 1/4/13
      United States
      0830 ET Dec nonfarm payrolls expected +150,000, Nov +146,000. Dec private payrolls expected +153,000, Nov +147,000. Dec mfg payrolls expected +4,000, Nov -7,000. Dec unemployment rate expected unch at 7.7%, Nov was -0.2 to 7.7%.
      0830 ET Dec avg hourly earnings expected +0.2% m/m and +1.7% y/y, Nov +0.2% m/m and +1.7% y/y. Dec avg weekly hours expected unch at 34.4 hours, Nov 34.4 hours.
      0830 ET USDA weekly Export Sales.
      1000 ET Nov factory orders expected +0.4% m/m, Oct +0.8% m/m.
      1000 ET Dec ISM non-manufacturing index expected -0.7 to 54.0, Nov +0.5 to 54.7.
      1315 ET Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser speaks on panel on "Real Business Cycle After Three Decades: Past, Present and Future" at the American Economic Association's conference in San Diego.
      1330 ET Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker delivers speech on the economic outlook at Maryland Bankers Association in Baltimore.
      1530 ET Fed Vice Chairman Janet Yellen speaks on "Financial System Interconnectedness and Systemic Risk: Lessons from the Crisis and Policy Implications" at American Economic Association conference in San Diego.
      1730 ET St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speaks at NABE panel "Federal Reserve Independence in the Aftermath of the Financial Crisis: Should We Be Worried?"
      Germany
      0200 ET German Nov retail sales expected +0.8% m/m and -1.6% y/y, Oct -1.3% m/m and -0.8% y/y.
      0355 ET German final Dec services PMI expected unrevised at 52.1.
      Euro-Zone
      0400 ET Eurozone final Dec services PMI expected unrevised at 47.8. Final Dec PMI composite expected unrevised at 47.3.
      0500 ET Eurozone Dec CPI expected +2.1% y/y, Nov +2.2% y/y.
      United Kingdom
      0430 ET UK Dec services PMI expected unch at 50.2, Nov 50.2.
      0430 ET UK Nov net consumer credit expected -100,000 bln pounds, Oct -500,000 pounds. Nov net lending secured on dwellings expected 500,000 pounds, Oct 200,000 pounds.
      0430 ET UK Nov mortgage approvals expected 54,000, Oct 53,000.
      0430 ET UK Nov M4, Oct +0.2% m/m and -3.2% y/y.
      Barchart.com provides Financial Quotes, Charts and Technical Analysis for Stock and Commodity Traders.

Dresser-Rand Group (DRC) - Barchart Chart of the Day


Barchart.com's Chart of the Day - Dresser-Rand Group (DRC)
The "Chart of the Day" is Dresser-Rand Group (DRC), which showed up on Thursday's Barchart "All-Time High" list. Dresser-Rand posted an all-time Thursday at $59.60 and closed up +0.21%. TrendSpotter has been long since Dec 18 at $54.93. In recent news on the stock, Susquehanna upgraded its outlook Thursday on Dresser-Rand to "Positive" from "Neutral" and raised its price target on the stock to $66 from $64, saying the company will benefit from a new unit upcycle over the next three years. Guggenheim on Thursday initiated a "Buy" rating on Dresser-Rand with a price target of $75. Dresser-Rand Group, with a market cap of $4.248 billion, is one of the largest global suppliers of rotating equipment solutions to the worldwide oil, gas, petrochemical and process industries. Their services and products are used for a wide range of applications, including oil and gas production, high-pressure field injection and enhanced oil recovery, pipelines, refinery processes, natural gas processing, and petrochemical production.
drc_700

How we found the Chart of the Day:

We found the "Chart of the Day" by scanning the Barchart "All-Time High" list. In order to get to that list, we first clicked on the Stocks menu item on the Barchart home page, then on the "All-Time Highs" menu item on the left menu bar. We then sorted the list by percentage gainers by clicking on the "Percent" column title. A stock that has posted a new all-time high is typically showing strong upside momentum.
The status of Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.
  • TrendSpotter: Buy
  • Short-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Medium-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Long-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Overall Average 100% Buy


Barchart links for further information:

Quotes and Charts
Quote
Detailed Quote
Chart

Technical Analysis
Technicals Summary
Trader's Cheat Sheet™

Barchart Opinions
Barchart Opinion
Barchart Snapshot
Trading Strategies

Company Info
Company Profile
Key Statistics
Ratios
Income Statement-Quarterly
Income Statement-Annual
Balance Sheet-Current
Balance Sheet-Annual


Chart of the Day Archive
View Past Chart of the Day Reports

NASDAQ 100 soars

What a difference a week makes.  This time last week the NASDAQ 100 was showing signs of caution.  Not a single stock was above an 80% Barchart technical buy signal.  Today 39 of the 100 stocks are above that level.  I sorted the index to find 5 with the best Barchart technical indicators and charts.  The list today includes Analog Devices (ADI), Discovery Communications (DISCA), Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD), Expedia (EXPE) and Liberty Global (LBTYA):

Analog Devices (ADI)


  • 100% Barchart technical buy signal
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 8 new highs and up 7.05% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 64.03%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 42.14
  • Recently traded at 43.29 with a  day moving average of 40.70


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 100% Barchart technical buy signal
  • rend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 5 new highs and up 9.31% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 68.47%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 64.72
  • Recently traded at 65.53 with a 50 day moving average of 59.91
Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD)


  • 100% Barchart technical buy signal
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 11 new highs and up 10.79% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 73.00%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 40.65
  • Recently traded at 41.03 with a 50 day moving average of 37.59
Expedia (EXPE)


  • 100% Barchart technical buy signal
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving average
  • 6 new highs and up 3.37% in the past month
  • Relative Strength Index 59.76%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 61.52
  • Recently traded at 62.83 with a 50 day moving average of 58.97
Liberty Global (LBTYA)


  • 100% Barchart technical buy signal
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 11 new highs and up 13.70% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 72.75%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 64.35
  • Recently traded at 65.30 with a 50 day moving average of 59.64











Wednesday, January 2, 2013

Radian Group - RDN)

The Chart of the Day is Radian Group (RDN) which showed up on the Barchart's 3 Month New High list.  Hitting 6.52 today is a new high for the stock.  In the past quarter the price has hit new high on 13 sessions and is up 43.65%.  Radian Group Inc. is the parent company of Radian Guaranty Inc. The company provides private mortgage insurance and risk management services to mortgage lenders nationwide; these services increase homeownership opportunities by helping people to buy homes with down payments of less than 20 percent.  The stock recently went through a recapitalization of its debt structure.

We found the Chart of the day by scanning the 3 Month New High list of the stock trading over 100K per day and sorting for frequency.  Next use the flipchart function and flip till you find a chart with the attributes you are looking for.

The status of Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.

Barchart technical Indicators:

  • 100% Barchart technical buy signal
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 13 new highs and up 43.65% in the last quarter
  • Relative Strength Index 79.13%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 5.38
  • Recently traded at 6.23 with a 50 day moving average of 4.79
Fundamental factors:
  • Analysts have issued 5 hold and a sell recommendation
  • They may not have factored in the recent debt restructure
  • Revenue projected to increase by 10.50% next year
  • Earnings estimated to increase by 90.00% next year 
  • Earnings predicted to increase annually by 12.00% for the next 5 years
  • P/E - none - coming off deficit
  • Dividend .17%
  • Market Capitalization $765 million
Sell criteria - If you add this to your portfolio I suggest that your sell point be a drop of 10% in price or when the stock crosses below its 50 day moving average.

Barchart Moring Call 1/2


Overnight Developments
  • March E-mini S&Ps are mildly higher by +0.22% as the market treads water ahead of today's fiscal cliff deadline. European stocks this morning are up +0.31%. Asia stocks today closed mixed. The main supportive factor this morning is the stronger-than-expected Chinese manufacturing PMI report released on Sunday night. The Japanese markets are closed today for a holiday. Commodity prices this morning are down -0.28%. Feb crude oil is down -0.66%, Feb gasoline is down -1.19%, Dec gold is up +0.37%, March copper is up +0.54%, grains are down about -0.8% on average, and softs are mostly higher. The dollar index is up +0.17%, EUR/USD is down -0.25%, and USD/JPY is up +0.23%. March 10-year T-note prices are unchanged.
  • Senate leaders on Sunday were unable to reach a fiscal cliff deal but negotiations will resume today. The deadline for a fiscal cliff deal is tonight at midnight. Starting tomorrow, tax rates will rise to pre-Bush levels, the top tax rate on dividends will rise to 43.4% from 15%, the top capital gain tax rate rises to 23.8% from 15%, the estate tax will rise to 55% from 35%, automatic spending cuts will start to kick in, the alternative minimum tax will kick in for millions more taxpayers, and employees will lose their 2 percent payroll tax holiday. Emergency unemployment benefits already expired as of Saturday. If there is no fiscal cliff agreement, then President Obama has asked for a vote on a stripped-down bill that just involves extending tax rates on income under $250,000 and extending emergency unemployment benefits. However, that vote is unlikely to happen given opposition by Republicans. Treasury Secretary Geithner said that the U.S. will hit the debt limit today, but that the Treasury can use emergency maneuvers to prevent a Treasury default for about 2 months. The current negotiations do not involve a debt ceiling hike, which means even if there is a fiscal cliff agreement today, the markets will still have a potential Treasury default hanging over their heads for the next two months until an agreement is reached on spending and entitlement cuts and a debt ceiling hike. The new session of Congress will begin on Thursday, Jan 3. Speaker Boehner will be reelected as House Speaker at a vote on Thursday. The Chinese HSBC manufacturing PMI for December was reported Sunday night at +1.0 to 51.5, which was stronger than the earlier flash report of +0.4 to 50.9. The HSBC manufacturing PMI report has now risen for four consecutive months (Sep-Dec) and posted a new 19-month high of 51.5 in December.
    Market Comments
    • March E-mini S&Ps this morning are up +3.00 points (+0.22%) on support from Sunday night's stronger-than-expected Chinese manufacturing PMI report. The S&P 500 index on Friday closed sharply lower on pessimism about a fiscal cliff deal, although there was at least some underlying support from the stronger-than-expected Chicago PMI and Nov pending home sales reports. Closes: S&P 500 -1.10%, Dow Jones -1.21%, Nasdaq -1.01%.
    • March 10-year T-notes this morning are unchanged. March 10-year T-note prices on Friday closed slightly higher on increased safe-haven demand with the sharp sell-off in stock and the pessimism about a fiscal cliff deal: Closes: TYH3 +1, FVH3 +0.75.
    • The dollar index this morning is up +0.13 points (+0.17%) on some increased safe-haven demand ahead of tonight's fiscal cliff deadline. EUR/USD is down -0.0033 (-0.25%) and USD/JPY is up +0.20 (+0.23%). The dollar index on Friday closed slightly higher on increased safe-haven demand with the sharp sell-off in U.S. stock on pessimism about a fiscal cliff deal. Closes: Dollar index +0.06 (+0.07%), EUR/USD -0.0020 (-0.15%), USD/JPY -0.14 (-0.16%).
    • Feb WTI crude oil prices this morning are down 0.60 (-0.66%) and Feb gasoline is down -0.03828 (-1.19%). Feb crude oil and gasoline prices on Friday closed lower on (1) concern about the global economy and fuel demand as Washington went into the weekend without being close on a fiscal cliff agreement, and (2) a bearish DOE report. Closes: CLG3 -0.07 (-0.08%), RBG3 -0.0308 (-1.10%). Friday's weekly DOE report showed a bearish -586,000 bbl decline in crude oil inventories (vs expectations for a -1.7 mln bbl decline), a bearish +3.782 mln bbl rise in gasoline inventories (larger than market expectations of +700,000 bbl), and a bearish 2.423 mln bbl increase in distillate inventories (vs expectations for a 1 mln bbl decline). The refinery utilization rate fell by 1.2 points to 90.3%, which was a larger decline than market expectations for a -0.3 points decline to 91.2%. U.S. oil production rose sharply by 121,000 bpd (+1.8%) to post a new 19-3/4 year high of 6.984 mln bpd.
    • For the complete subscription version of this daily report (plus a 13-page big-picture weekly report), along with the earliest possible delivery in the morning, please visit http://www.barchart.com/register/crbfms_usmc.php
      Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (ranked by market cap): CALM-Cal-Maine Foods (Consensus EPS: $0.90).
      Global Financial Calendar
      Monday 12/31/12
      United States
      0900 ET Dec Milwaukee NAPM, Nov 45.5.
      1030 ET Dec Dallas Fed manufacturing activity, Nov -2.8.
      1100 ET USDA weekly grain export inspections.
      n/a U.S. Bush tax cuts expire.
      Japan
      n/a Markets closed for bank holiday.
      CHI
      2000 ET China Dec manufacturing PMI expected +0.4 to 51.0, Nov +0.4 to 50.6.
      Barchart.com provides Financial Quotes, Charts and Technical Analysis for Stock and Commodity Traders.

Rackspace Hosting - RAX - Barchart Chart of the Day


Barchart.com's Chart of the Day - Rackspace Hosting (RAX)
The "Chart of the Day" is Rackspace Hosting (RAX), which showed up on Monday's Barchart "All-Time High" list. Rackspace on Monday rallied to a new all-time high of $74.78 and closed +2.13%. TrendSpotter has been long since Nov 29 at $69.04. In recent news on the stock, JPMorgan on Dec 5 initiated coverage on Rackspace with an Overweight rating and a target of $83. Rackspace Hosting, with a market cap of $10 billion, is a leader in computer services hosting.

rax_700
We found the "Chart of the Day" by scanning the Barchart "All Time High" list. In order to get to that list, we first clicked on the Stocks menu item on the Barchart home page, then on the "All Time Highs" menu item on the left menu bar. We then sorted the list by percentage gainers by clicking on the "Percent" column title. A stock that has posted a new All-Time high is typically showing strong upside momentum.
The status of Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.
  • TrendSpotter: Buy
  • Short-Term Indicators: 80% Buy
  • Medium-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Long-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Overall Average 96% Buy


Barchart links for further information:

Quotes and Charts
Quote
Detailed Quote
Chart

Technical Analysis
Technicals Summary
Trader's Cheat Sheet™

Barchart Opinions
Barchart Opinion
Barchart Snapshot
Trading Strategies

Company Info
Company Profile
Key Statistics
Ratios
Income Statement-Quarterly
Income Statement-Annual
Balance Sheet-Current
Balance Sheet-Annual


Chart of the Day Archive
View Past Chart of the Day Reports

Sunday, December 30, 2012

Chart of the Day Template

The Chart of the Day is Standard Motor Products (SMP), which showed up on Friday's Barchart  3 month High list.  In the past quarter SMP has posted new highs in 22 trading sessions and is up 18.40% for that period.  Analysts are high on the stock and look for increased revenue and earning in the coming year. SMP manufactures and distributes replacement parts for motor vehicles. They are now organized into two principal segments, each focused on a specific type of replacement part. The Engine Management Division consists primarily of ignition and emission parts, on-board computers, ignition wires, battery cables and fuel system parts. The Temperature Control Division consists primarily of air conditioning compressors, other air conditioning parts and heater parts.


We found the Chart of the Day by scanning the Barchart New Highs/Low page and then sorted for frequency.  We use that process to find stocks having consistent upward momentum.  Important Barchart technical indicators and fundamental information is summarized below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and therefore can change during the day as the prices fluctuate.  The indicators below may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com website.

Barchart technical indicators:
  • 80% Barchart technical buy signal
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 22 new highs and up 18.40% in the last quarter
  • Relative Strength Index 76.04%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 21.42
  • Recently traded at 21.51 with a 50 day moving average of 19.27
Fundamental indicators:
  • Analysts issued 4 strong buys
  • Revenue expected to increase by 5.70% next year
  • Earning estimated to increase by 15.30% nest year
  • Earnings predicted to grow by 14.00% annually for the next 5 years
  • P/E ratio 12.74
  • Dividend rate 1.64%