Financial Tides - BarChart weekly market momentum w/e 11/20/09

On Financial Tides I always try to give a weekly analysis of the status of the stock market. Sometimes the press about the market reminds me of an impressionist painting. You can stand too close and all you see are brush strokes and patches of color. It's hard to tell what the painting is about. You've got to back up and view the painting from a wider perspective and then all those brush strokes and patches of color start to make sense and your mind now translates the chaos into a wonderful image you can appreciate.

The market reports were like that this week. Market up and down, gold, oil and the dollar sometimes going up together then reversing sometimes traveling independently and all the time the headlines on different news sites interpreting things differently. There were times when the headlines in different articles on the same page had the market going in different directions.

Let's step back across the room and try to make sense of all the different brush strokes, textures and blotches of color. As always I go to BarChart to find my data and start with the Value Line Index. I use that index because it contains 1700 stocks not just the 30 of the Dow or the 500 of the S&P 500.

Value Line Index -- 1700 stocks -- down .65% for the week but still up 4.38% month to date.

• BarChart's 13 technical indicators have the Index rated 5 buys, 3 holds and 5 sells for an overall rating of hold
• The Index closed on Friday above it's 20, 50 & 100 day moving averages

Weekly market momentum -- 6000 stocks -- the percentage of stocks closing above their Daily Moving Averages

• 20 DMA -- 55.67% closed above
• 50 DMA -- 46.77% closed above
• 100 DMA -- 68.77% closed above

Ratio of stocks hitting new highs to those hitting new lows for various time periods -- above 1.01 bullish, 1.00 neutral, below .99 bearish

• 20 day new high/new low ratio -- 313/599 = .52
• 65 day new high/new low ratio -- 164/323 = .51
• 100 day new high/new low ratio -- 144/162 = .89

Summary: The market did not advance this week; there are signs for caution but not for panic. This week if some of the stocks in my portfolio start tanking below their 50 DMA I might do some culling but I'd like to see the ratio of new highs to new lows improve before I'd be ready to say the market is safe again -- what am I saying: the market is never safe. Always have protective stop loses on your major positions.

Wall Street Survivor results -- the contributors to Top Stocks who make stock recommendations place those recommendations in a model portfolio for a little friendly competition. For the month so far the S&P 500 is up 5.33 and 4 of the 8 contestants have beaten that benchmark. The leader is Anthony Mirhaydan with 26.92% and then Vad Yazvinski at 9.10% with me a distant 3rd with 7.89%. Next week is another week.

Disclosure: I do not hold any positions in any of the stocks in my model portfolio.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email FinancialTides@gmail.com

Economy slightly improving

For those of you who have followed me you know I like to keep things simple and disciplined. My background in accounting and law forces my thinking process to take data, analysis it and then try to decide on a course of action. Before I push the buy button I need to know:

• How is the economy doing?
• How is the stock market doing?
• What stocks have the most consistent price appreciation in the present economic and market environment?
• Which individual stocks meet my minimum criteria to add to my portfolio?

There is just too much economic information out there and the more I research the more confused I get. Put two economist in a room and they will issue 5 different opinion papers. To cut through all that confusion I have come to rely on the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index. It's published once a month and consists of a Leading Economic Index (LEI), a Coincident Economic Index (CEI) and a Lagging Economic Index (LAG). Since there are only 21 components on the report I'm not buried in so much data that I get confused.

I'd like to summarize the report to make it simple but have added a link to the complete report so you can make your own conclusions:

• LEI is up for the 7th straight month -- this month by .3% but residential building permits are still a major weak point.
• CEI is flat and basically has been since June -- GDP expanding with industrial productivity up and the employment indicators down. Sounds like we are doing more with less and hopefully getting more efficient.
• LAG is still declining with 2 indicators up and 5 down but the rate of decline is slowing slightly with the biggest problems in commercial and industrial loans outstanding.

The roller coaster has reached the bottom and starting to come back up. I'm confident that I'll be seeing positive but not significant price appreciations until the middle cars on the roller coaster climb out of the trough.

I look forward to next month's report due to be released Thursday December 17th at 10:00 AM

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave your comments below or email FinancialTides@gmail.com

Model Portfolio changes

Stocks are dropped from the model portfolios on Financial Tides when they either fail to maintain there upward momentum or drop below their 50 day moving averages. We are dropping 2 stocks for the following reasons:

VMFIV - Marketocracy S&P 500 fund - Millipore Corp. -- MIL

• Trading below its 20, 50 and 100 DMA
• Has not hit a new high since 8/7/09
• On BarChart 9 of 13 technical indicators have sell signals for an overall sell signal of 68%

VMALP - Marketocracy Alpha fund - Alpha Pro Tech -- APT

• Trading below its 20 & 50 DMA
• Has not hit a new high since 10/26/09
• On BarChart 7 of 13 technical indicators have sell signals for an overall sell signal of 32%

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email FinancialTides@gmail.com

Disclosure: I do not have positions in these stock at the time of publication

A healthy REIT

I know there is a lot of caution in the commercial real estate market but as the population ages long-term care facilities should be a growth market. As always on Financial Tides I try to place my recommendations into one of my simulation portfolios for accountability of my recommendations. For that reason I'm adding Omega Health Care Investors - OHI - to my UpDown portfolio. The portfolio has an annual return on 120%.

Omega Healthcare Investors is a self-administered real estate investment trust which invests in income producing health care facilities, principally long--term care facilities, with the objective of profitable growth and further diversification of the investment portfolio. Investments are located primarily in the United States.

OHI came up on my BarChart screener when I was looking for companies trading over 100K shares a day that have hit new highs in over 50% of the last trading sessions. OHI has hit 14 new highs in the last 20 sessions and is 5 for 5 recently. There has been a 29.75% price appreciation in the last 65 days. Barchart's technical indicators have 12 out of 13 buy signals with only one sell for an 88% buy rating and the sell was a long term indicator and a review of the price chart leads me to believe that the sell signal will turn by the end of the week.

Recently analysts from UBS and JMP have upgraded this stock and they estimate a 7.3% increase in revenues and a 13.1% increase in earnings per share. This is what you'd expect from a quality REIT.

Other sites have positive ratings also. Over on Wall Street Survivor Mark's checklist has Survivor Sentiment at 5/5, Technicals at 5/5 and Motley Fool at 4/5. Further Motley Fool's members' rating by their out or under perform vote 179 to 9 to out perform with the All Stars rating it 48 to 1 to outperform the market.

This stock has 3 qualities I look for:

• BarChart showing that the stock has hit new highs in at least 50% of the last 20 trading sessions
• No negative news from the analyst -- we don't want the brokerage firms trashing the stock we just bought with sell calls to their customers
• Confirmation from other reliable sites that their members are also positive on this stock

Recommendation: I'm buying Omega Healthcare Investors -- OHI -- for my UpDown portfolio around 18.50 with a protective stop loss of not less than 16.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email FinancialTides@gmail.com

Disclosure: I do not own OHI at the time of publication

HealthCare industry needs supplies

To be accountable for the recommendations I make on Financial Tides I always place my recommendations into one of my simulated portfolios to see how the stocks actually perform. BDX is being added to my portfolio on UpDown.com. That particular portfolio has a 120% annual rate of return.

The health care industry goes through a lot of supplies and one of the biggest providers of supplies is Becton Dickinson -- BDX -- NYSE. BDX is engaged principally in the manufacture and sale of a broad line of supplies, devices and systems used by health care professionals, medical research institutions and the general public. BDX's operations consist of three worldwide business segments: Medical Systems, Biosciences, and Preanalytical Solutions.

Don't expect spectacular rates of return but most analyst feel it will out perform the market. There are 11 analyst following this stock and only 1 feels it will under perform the market.

I found the stock by screening on BarChart for stocks trading over 100K shares a day that have hit new highs in at least 50% of the last 20 trading sessions. BDX has hit 12 new highs in the last 20 sessions and is recently 5 for 5. There has been a steady 12.36% price appreciation in the last 65 days. BarChart's technical analysis indicators have 12 buy signals out of 13 indicators with only 1 hold for a 96% Buy rating.

Although I have found BarChart to be dependable I always look to see what other sites think. Over on Wall Street Survivor Mark's checklist has Survivor Sentiment 5/5, Fundamentals 4/5, Technical 5/5 and Motley Fool at 5/4 for a 93% rating.

Over on Motley Fool they have 3 out/under perform ratios with the following results: All Members 654/14, All-Star Members 225/12 and their Wall Street ratio 14/0.

This stock has 3 things I look for in any stock recommendation:

• The stock is hitting new highs in at least 50% of the last 20 trading sessions and has at least an 80% buy rating on BarChart
• Has news buzz created by analysts from Wall Street and brokerage firms and do not have major negative outlooks
• Has confirmation of my choice from other sites -- If there is disagreement I always take a second look for why.

Recommendation: I'm buying Becton Dickinson BDX for my UpDown portfolio around 73.50 with a protective stop loss not less than 69.50.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email FinancialTides@gmail.com.

Disclosure: I do not hold any actual position in this stock at the time of publication.

Costco kicks the Coke habit

As I was reading financial stories on the Internet I had the TV on and heard in the background that Costco (COST) had quit carrying Coke (KO) products. I knew that for years Coke was rumored to pressure stores and restaurants to carry only their products. Even today it's hard, almost impossible to find a restaurant where you can get both products.

I'm amazed as I go around to volume retailers how much Coke products vary in price. There seems to be no rhyme nor reason for this. You would think that Wal-Mart, BJ's, and Costco all pay the same price?

Both the Associated Press -- "Costco nixes Coke products over pricing dispute" and Bloomberg --"Costco stops restocking Coca-Cola products in dispute" have short articles but both Costco and Coke won't say much other than they are in price negotiations. Both stories quote a release from the company website that seems to have been taken down: "Coca-Cola has not provided Costco with competitive pricing so that we may pass along the value our customers deserve."

This is a dispute that will pay out behind closed doors but will effect many of us. My bet is that Coke won't budge. I think Costco needs Coke more than Coke needs Costco but either way I doubt if we will ever know if Costco got as good a deal as Wal-Mart. What do you think?

Disclosure: I do not hold positions in either company at the time of publication

Jim Van Meerten is a investor who writes on financial matters her and on Financial Tides. Please comment below or email FinancialTides@gmail.com

Model Portfolio additions - VMSLO

Financial Tides portfolio additions:

VMSLO is a model portfolio I have on Marketocracy. These are stocks that trade under 100K per day, have hit new highs in at least 50% of the last 20 trading sessions and have positive price action today and the last 5 days. BarChart is used as my screener and these stock have a buy signal of at least 80% on BarChart.

• CATM -- Cardtronics
• MSPD -- Mindspeed Technologies
• NTRI -- NutriSystems
• KVU -- Structured Products Trust
• ACV -- Alberto-Culver
• MGLN -- Magellan Health Service

This fund is a continuation of the fund I used to win the Strategy Lab Open sponsored by Investor Place Media and MSN Money Central.

Recently the 12 month return on this fund was 47.65%vs, the S&P 500's return of 28.43%; it beat the index by 19.22% . Since the fund's inception on 1/3/2008 the fund has returned 59.26% vs. the S&P 500 negative 17.11%; beating the index by 76.37%

The public page of this fund on Marketocracy is VMSLO.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email FinancialTides@gmail.com

Disclosure: I hold no position in any of these stocks at the time of publication

Special note of caution for the inexperienced

On Financial Tides I will give you investing ideas. Occasionally, very occasionally a stock will come up on my screeners that I'd like to share with you for technical reasons alone. It may have spiked in volume, hit new highs consistently and is interesting for its speculative value.

If you are an investor or even a day trader stay away from anything that is under $5 and traded on the OTCBB. These stocks are not for you. They may lose their following, turn illiquid or have a tremendous price gyration for reasons that are beyond comprehension.

My highly speculative stocks are not stocks I'm promoting, just stocks I find interesting. I'll try to flag these stocks as highly speculative but if you are not a seasoned investor, willing to take a small flyer, please stay away from these.

CLHR -- Clear-Lite Holdings (OTCBB) trading recently at 1.34 and NXTH -- NXT Nutritionals Holdings (OTCBB) recently trading at 1.20 were 2 such stocks. They were covered because they had recent positive price appreciation, had hit new highs in at least 50% of the last 20 trading sessions, had volume of at least 100K per day and also had recent press coverage that made them visible.

They were not investments, they were fliers -- lotto tickets.

I'll give you the same advise the old Sarge gave on Hill Street Blue: "Be careful out there"

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email FinancialTides@gmail.com.

Disclosure: I do not hold positions in CLRH or NXTH at the time of publication

It takes a Green Plain to grow ethanol

The buzz on renewable fuel just won't go away. Brazil uses soybeans and we use corn. Green Plains Renewable Energy -- GPRE -- press release states they are North America's fourth largest ethanol producer, operating six ethanol plants in Indiana, Iowa, Nebraska and Tennessee with a combined expected operating capacity of 480 million gallons of ethanol per year. GPRE also operates an independent third-party ethanol marketing service that currently provides marketing services to its affiliated plants as well as three third-party ethanol producers with expected operating capacity of 305 million gallons per year. Green Plains owns 51% of Blendstar, LLC, a Houston-based biofuel terminal operator with six facilities in five states. Green Plains' agribusiness segment operates grain storage facilities and complementary agronomy, feed, and fuel businesses in northern Iowa and southern Minnesota.

On a fundamental analysis bases analysts give the stock a strong buy rating and expect a 20.7 revenue growth with a price target of 15 which is 35% higher than its present price of around 11.

The stock came up on my BarChart filtering of the stocks hitting the most frequent new high with 13 new highs in the last 20 trading session and 5 for 5 recently. There has been a price appreciation of 70.62% in the last 65 days. BarChart's technical analysis indicators give it a 13 out of 13 buy signal for a 100% buy rating.

Additional positive ratings come from Wall Street Survivor where Mark's checklist has a Survivor Sentiment at 5/5 and Louis Navellier's Portfolio Grader has it a buy with a B rating overall and an A quantitative rating. I'm glad that more people than just me have noticed it.

Recommendation: I'm adding this to my Marketocracy New High portfolio and if you have room in your portfolio for a renewable energy company then buy GPRE - Green Plains Renewable Energy around 11 with a protective stop loss no lower than 9.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email FinancialTides@gmail.com

Disclosure: I hold no positions in GPRE at the time of publication

Clear-Lite Holdings - CLRH - turns the lights on

Normally on Financial Tides we do not follow highly speculative or IPO issues but I'm going to make an exception for Clear-Lite Holdings -- CLHR. According to their press releases: Clear-Lite Holdings, Inc. (CLHR) operates as an innovator of eco-friendly CFLs, lamps, and commercial lighting products. CLHR manufactures and distributes energy saving lighting products for the retail and industrial/commercial markets in the United States and Canada. The company's CFL products are Energy Star qualified and designed to meet RoHS standards (Reduction of Hazardous Substances), as well as UL approved in the United States and Canada. In addition, ClearLite offers ArmorLite SAFETY ECO CFL, a patent pending technology, helps to capture broken glass and mercury. It has strategic partnerships with major global manufacturers and has a network of sales and logistics channels with offices in Florida, Illinois, and California, as well as in Canada. The company was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Boca Raton, Florida.

The company is highly speculative but seems to have a great publicist with new articles in Huffington Post and Popular Science. They have also began to market and sell product on Amazon.com. Don't look for any financials because this is a new highly speculative issue.

The stock came up when I was screening on BarChart for companies hitting the most new highs and trading at least 100K shares per day. CLRH is trading over 750K - a million shares a day. It has hit new highs 19 out of 20 of the last trading sessions and is currently 5 for 5. There has been a 191.55% price appreciation in the last 65 days.

If you're looking for a highly speculative new issue with marketing buzz and good technical charts look here. BarChart begins their TA rating after there is 6 months trading activity so it will be followed soon.

Recommendation: For highly aggressive and speculative accounts only buy Clear-Lite Holding -- CLRH around 2.07 with a protective stop loss no lower than 1.75 and adjust that stop loss at least weekly.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email FinancialTides@gmail.com

Disclosure: at the time of publication I hold no positions in Clear-Lite Holding -- CLRH

Model Portfolio Deletions 11/15/2009

The following stocks have been deleted from my Marketocracy model portfolios for technical analysis reasons -- lack of current price performance

Signature portfolios:

VMNHI -- stocks hitting new highs -- VOL 100K+ -- No deletions made this week
VMSLO -- stocks hitting new highs -- VOL 99K<

• ACLI -- American Commercial Lines -- sell
• FCT -- First trust Four Corners -- sell
• NMP -- Nuveen Mi Prem Inc -- sell

Experimental portfolios - Just trying new things

VMSIX -- Stocks in the S&P 600

• AVID -- Avid Technology -- sell
• NVTL -- Novatel Wireless -- sell

VMSHT - my short portfolio -- ACM AECOM Technology -- buy to cover

VMALP - a proprietary screener portfolio -- ACTG -- Acacia Research -- sell

Disclosure: I do not hold any positions in these stocks at the time of publication

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes about financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email FinancialTides@gmail.com