Barchart Morning Call 9/12

Barchart Morning Call

Thursday, September 12th, 2013View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

September E-mini S&Ps (ESU13 unch) this morning are down -0.09% and European stocks are down by -0.17% after industrial output in the Eurozone fell by the most in 10-months. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan -0.26%, Hong Kong +0.07%, China +0.99%, Taiwan +0.20%, Australia +0.16%, Singapore +0.41%, South Korea -0.02%, India -1.08%. Japanese stocks fell after Japanese core machinery orders, a proxy of future capital spending, unexpectedly stagnated in July, while China's Shanghai stock index rose to a 3-month high after Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said that China will push forward interest-rate and exchange-rate reforms and the internationalization of the yuan. Commodity prices are mixed. Oct crude oil (CLV13 +0.80%) is up +0.86% and Oct gasoline (RBV13 +1.50%) is up +1.42% after the Israeli army reported that two shells fired from Syria hit the southern Golan. Dec gold (GCZ13 -1.68%) is down -1.58% at a 4-week low on expectations for the Fed to taper QE at next week's FOMC meeting and Dec copper (HGZ13 -1.37%) is down -0.97% after Eurozone industrial production fell more than expected. Agricultural and livestock prices are mixed ahead of the Sep WASDE crop production report later this morning. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.01%) is up +0.02%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.12% and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.53%. December T-note prices (ZNZ13 +0.18%) are up +7.5 ticks.
Eurozone July industrial production fell -1.5% m/m and -2.1% y/y, weaker than expectations of -0.3% m/m and -0.2% y/y, with the -1.5% m/m decline the biggest monthly drop in 10-months.
The German Aug wholesale price index fell -0.6% m/m, the sixth consecutive month wholesale prices have fallen, and dropped -1.7% y/y, the biggest annual decline in 3-3/4 years.
Japan July machine orders were unch m/m and +6.5% y/y, weaker than expectations of +2.4% m/m and +7.7% y/y.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Today’s weekly initial unemployment claims report is expected to show an increase of +7,000 to 330,000, reversing part of last week’s decline of -9,000 to 323,000. Meanwhile, continuing claims are expected to rise +9,000 to 2.960 million, more than reversing last week’s decline of -43,000 to 2.951 million. The Treasury today will sell $13 billion in 30-year T-bonds, concluding this week’s $66 billion coupon package. There are two of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: Kroger (consensus $0.60), and Ulta Salon (0.67).
Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include the following: UBS Global Paper & Forest Products Conference on Thu, UBS Best of Americas Conference on Thu-Fri, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Real Estate Conference on Wed-Fri, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Healthcare Conference on Wed-Thu, Goldman Sachs Global Commodities Conference on Wed-Thu, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Media, Communications & Entertainment Conference on Wed-Thu, Barclays Capital CEO Energy - Power Conference on Wed-Thu, Barclays CEO Energy Power Conference on Wed-Thu, CL King & Associates Inc Best Ideas Conference on Wed-Thu, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Canada Mining Conference on Thu, and Bloomberg Canadian Fixed Income Conference on Thu.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Halliburton (HAL -0.26%) was downgraded to "Neutral" from "Outperform" at Macquarie.
lululemon (LULU -1.50%) slipped over 9% in pre-market trading after it reported Q2 EPS of 39 cents, better than consensus of 35 cents, but then lowered guidance on fiscal 2013 EPS view to $1.94-$1.97, below consensus $1.99.
Wendy's (WEN +0.73%) was upgraded to "Buy" from "Hold" at Argus.
Symantec (SYMC +0.12%) was downgraded to "Equal Weight" from "Overweight" at Morgan Stanley.
Men's Wearhouse (MW -0.62%) slumped over 10% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 EPS of $1.01, well below consensus of $1.14, and then lowered guidance on fiscal 2013 EPS view to $2.40-$2.50 from $2.70-$2.80, below consensus of $2.77.
As of the September 20 close, Ametek (AME +0.41%) and Vertex (VRTX -1.86%) will be added to the S&P 500, while AMD (AMD -1.29%) and SAIC (SAI +2.07%) will be deleted and added to the S&P 400.
Billionare investor Carl Icahn said he bought more Apple (AAPL -5.44%) stock Wednesday as the price fell and that he likes the Netflix (NFLX -1.52%) model and has not sold his shares.
Qualcomm (QCOM -2.85%) announced a new $5 billion share repurchase program.
Royal Caribbean (RCL +1.28%) raised its quarterly dividend to 25 cents per share from 12 cents per share.
Vera Bradley (VRA +2.53%) tumbled 11% in after-hours trading after reported Q2 EPS of 37 cents, better than consensus of 32 cents, but then lowered guidance on fiscal 2014 EPS view to $1.47-$1.52 from $1.74-$1.78, below consensus of $1.71.

MARKET COMMENTS

Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU13 unch) this morning are down -1.50 points (-0.09%). The S&P 500 index on Wednesday climbed to a 4-week high and closed higher. Bullish factors included (1) reduced threats of a U.S. military strike against Syria after President Obama asked Congress to delay a vote authorizing the use of military force while the administration pursues Russia's proposal that Syria gives up its chemical weapons, and (2) improved global economic prospects after the UK July unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to a 4-year low of 7.7%. Closes: S&P 500 +0.31%, Dow Jones +0.89%, Nasdaq 100 -0.16%.
Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ13 +0.18%) this morning are up +7.5 ticks. Dec 10-year T-note prices on Wednesday shed early losses and closed higher on strong demand for the Treasury's $21 billion 10-year T-note auction that had a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.86, higher than the 12-auction average of 2.78. Prices had traded lower early on reduced safe-haven demand as the threat of any U.S. military strike against Syria faded when President Obama asked Congress to delay a vote on authorizing military force against Syria. Closes: TYZ3 +14.50, FVZ3 +9.75.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.01%) this morning is up +0.014 (+0.02%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0016 (-0.12%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.53 (-0.53%). The dollar index on Wednesday slipped to a 1-1/2 week low and closed lower. The dollar retreated on reduced safe-haven demand after President Obama postponed a decision on military attacks on Syria. Another negative for the dollar was the rally in the British pound to a 7-month high against the dollar after the UK unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to a 4-year low. Closes: Dollar index -0.303 (-0.37%), EUR/USD +0.00435 (+0.33%), USD/JPY -0.49 (-0.49%).
Oct WTI crude oil (CLV13 +0.80%) this morning is up +93 cents (+0.86%) and Oct gasoline (RBV13 +1.50%) is up +0.0385 (+1.42%). Oct crude oil and gasoline prices on Wednesday settled mixed. A slide in the dollar index to a 1-1/2 week low boosted crude, while Oct gasoline tumbled to a 1-month low after weekly EIA gasoline stockpiles unexpectedly rose +1.658 million bbl, higher than estimates for a -1.0 million bbl decline. Another bearish factor for crude was the +1.6% increase in U.S. crude production in the week ended Sep 6 to a new 23-3/4 year high of 7.745 million barrels a day. Also, crude prices were pressured as the risk of a U.S. military strike in Syria receded when President Obama postponed a decision on military attacks on Syria. Closes: CLV3 +0.17 (+0.16%), RBV3 -0.0235 (-0.86%).

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR09/12/2013

US	0830 ET	Weekly initial unemployment claims expected +7,000 to 330,000, previous -9,000 to 323,000. Weekly continuing claims expected +9,000 to 2.960 million, previous -43,000 to 2.951 million.
	0830 ET	Aug import price index expected +0.5% m/m and +0.4% y/y, July +0.2% m/m and +1.0% y/y.
	0830 ET	USDA weekly Export Sales.
	0900 ET	New York Fed President William Dudley speaks on a panel in Paris at an event title Four years after Pittsburgh. What has OTC derivatives reform achieved so far?
	1100 ET	Treasury announces amount of 10-year TIPS to be auctioned Sep 19.
	1200 ET	Sep WASE crop production report.
	1300 ET	Treasury auctions $13 billion 30-year T-bonds.
	1400 ET	Aug monthly budget statement expected -$150.0 billion, July -$97.594 billion.
GER	0200 ET	German Aug wholesale price index, July -0.3% m/m and unch y/y.
EUR	0400 ET	ECB publishes monthly report.
	0500 ET	Eurozone July industrial production expected -0.3% m/m and -0.2% y/y, Jun +0.7% m/m and +0.3% y/y.
UK	0500 ET	BOE Governor Mark Carney testifies to the U.S. Parliaments Treasury Committee on the BOEs Aug inflation report.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR09/12/2013

Company Name	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Kroger Co/The	KR US	Bef-mkt	Q2 2014 Earnings Release	Q2 2014	0.595
WW Grainger Inc	GWW US	8:00	August 2013 Sales and Revenue Call	2013
WW Grainger Inc	GWW US	8:00	August 2013 Sales and Revenue Release	2013
Aptargroup Inc	ATR US	8:00	Analyst Day	Y 2013
Progressive Corp/The	PGR US	8:30	August 2013 Sales and Revenue Release	2013
US Bancorp/MN	USB US	8:30	Investor Day	Y 2013
Ecolab Inc	ECL US	9:00	Investor Day - Morning Session	Y 2013
Kroger Co/The	KR US	10:00	Q2 2014 Earnings Call	Q2 2014
Dell Inc	DELL US	10:00	Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting - M&A Vote	Y 2013
Mastercard Inc	MA US	10:00	U.S. Credit-Card Swipe Fee Settlement Hearing
Visa Inc	V US	10:00	U.S. Credit-Card Swipe Fee Settlement Hearing
Stratasys Ltd	SSYS US	10:00	Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting	Y 2013
Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance Inc	ULTA US	Aft-mkt	Q2 2014 Earnings Release	Q2 2014	0.666
H&R Block Inc	HRB US		Annual General Meeting

Barchart Morning Call 3/14

Barchart Morning Call

Thursday, March 14th, 2013View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

June E-mini S&Ps are mildly higher by +0.13% on a +0.77% rally in European stocks and mostly higher Asian stock market closes today. European stocks are being supported today by a successful Spanish bond auction and by optimism that Eurozone leaders will reduce their Germany-led focus on austerity. Japanese stocks today closed +1.16%, Hong Kong closed +0.28%, and China closed +0.27%. Commodity prices are slightly lower by -0.07% on average. April crude oil is down -0.28%, April gasoline is down -0.93%, April gold is down -0.28%, May copper is up +0.20%, and agriculture prices are mixed. The dollar index is mildly higher by +0.18% on carry-over support from yesterday's much stronger than expected u.S. retail sales report of +1.1% m/m (+1.0% ex-autos), while EUR/USD is down -0.0038 (-0.29%). USD/JPY is up +0.27 (+0.28%). June 10-year T-notes are down -5.5 ticks ahead of today's 30-year bond auction.
The 2-day EU Summit begins today. Key agenda items include easier austerity measures for countries such as France, Spain and Italy, the bailout of Cyprus, and the centralized bank regulation plan. Eurozone finance ministers meeting on Friday and will mainly focus on the Cyprus bailout, which has become problematic because of perceptions that key Cyprus banks have been involved money laundering for Russian entities.
Spain today successfully sold a batch of bonds with maturities of 13, 27 and 28 years totaling 803 million euros in size. The bond sale was announced just earlier this week. The bid cover ratios were solid at 4.1, 2.4, and 2.0, respectively. The successful sale indicated that there is still enough investor confidence about Spain to maintain access to the longer-term bond market. The Spanish Treasury has now covered about one-third of its planned mid-term and long-term debt issuance for 2013.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu today was able to reach a coalition agreement for a ruling government following the Jan 22 national elections. The new government comes just in time as President Obama will visit Israel next Wednesday. Now that a coalition government has been formed, President Netanyahu may speak more forcefully about Iran again.
China's national legislature named Xi Jinping as China's president, adding that title to his already existing portfolio as head of the ruling communist Party and chairman of the country's military commission. His quick assumption of all three posts was considered rapid and indicated strong support for his leadership.
The Australian dollar rallied 0.8% today after Feb Australian jobs rose by +71,500, the largest increase in nearly 13 years.
The Swiss central bank today vowed to maintain its cap on the Swiss franc to keep the franc from appreciating and hurting Swiss exporters.
Norway's central bank today left its benchmark policy rate unchanged. The Norwegian krone fell as the Norwegian central bank chief said that the bank's key policy rate needs to remain low longer than previously thought.
Japan's final-Jan industrial production was revised lower to +0.3% m/m and -5.8% y/y from the preliminary report of +1.0% m/m and -5.1% y/y. Japan's final-Feb machine tool orders report was left unrevised at -21.5% y/y.
Eurozone Q4 employment fell-0.3% q/q and -0.8% y/y, which was weaker than the Q3 report of -0.1% q/q and -0.6% y/y.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Today’s weekly initial unemployment claims report is expected to show a +10,000 increase to 350,000, more than reversing last week’s decline of -7,000 to 340,000. Meanwhile, continuing claims are expected to show a small decline of -4,000 to 3.090 million, more than reversing last week’s small increase of +3,000 to 3.094 mln. Today’s Feb PPI report is expected to show a large gain of +0.7% m/m after the +0.2% m/m increase in Jan. However, the Feb core PPI is expected to show a modest gain of +0.1% after the +0.2% m/m increase in Jan. Current account balance – Today’s Q4 current account deficit is expected to widen moderately to -$113.0 billion from -$107.5 billion in Q3. There are earnings reports today from Molycorp (consensus -$0.30), Ulta Salon (0.98).
Conferences during the remainder of this week include the FIA International Derivatives Conference on Tue-Thu, Barclays Capital Healthcare Conference on Tue-Thu, UBS Global Consumer Conference on Wed-Thu, and Susquehanna Chemical Conference on Thu.

June E-mini S&Ps are mildly higher by +2.00 points (+0.13%) on higher overseas stocks and on carry-over support from yesterday's stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales report of +1.1% m/m. The S&P 500 index on Wednesday fluctuated on either side of unchanged and finally closed slightly higher as strong U.S. Feb retail sales offset stretched valuations and weak European stocks. The main bullish factor was the increase in U.S. Feb retail sales by +1.1% and +1.0% less autos, stronger than expectations of +0.5% for both retail sales and retail sales less autos. Bearish factors included (1) valuation concerns with the S&P 500 at 15.3 times earnings, a 22-month high, and the Dow at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.1, a nearly 2-year high, and (2) weakness in European stocks after Eurozone Jan industrial production fell -0.4% m/m, weaker than market expectations of -0.1% m/m. Closes: S&P 500 +0.13%, Dow Jones +0.04%, Nasdaq -0.08%.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

• Dynegy (DYN +0.40%) announced a definitive agreement to acquire Ameren Energy Resources (AEE).
• Kirkland's (KIRK +0.26%) reported Q4 EPS of 82 cents, well above the consensus of 74 cents.
• Amazon.com (AMZN +0.35%) was downgraded to Neutral from Overweight by JPMorgan.
• Barnes & Noble's (BKS -1.35%) bid to have some claims dismissed that it infringed Alcatel-Lucent (ALU -2.70%) patents relating to Internet commerce was rejected by a federal judge.
• Coldwater Creek (CWTR -0.31%) reported a Q4 adjusted EPS loss of -65 cents, better than consensus of -79 cents.
• Men's Wearhouse (MW -0.34%) reported a Q4 EPS loss of -7 cents, wider than consensus of -5 cents.
• Sterne Agee initiated D.R. Horton (DHI +1.65%) with a Buy and named it a "Top Pick" with a target of $29 a share.
• Sterne Agee initiated Beazer Homes (BZH +0.93%) with a with a target price of $21 a share.
• Providence Service (PRSC +0.06%) reported Q4 EPS of 22 cents, lower than consensus of 24 cents.
• Wells Fargo (WFC +0.30%) was initiated with a Market Perform at BMO Capital with a target price of $40 a share.
• Vera Bradley (VRA +0.89%) reported Q4 EPS of 62 cents, better than consensus of 57 cents.
• Hot Topic (HOTT +0.07%) reported Q4 EPS of 29 cents, stronger than consensus of 27 cents.

MARKET COMMENTS

June 10-year T-notes are down 5.5 ticks going into today's sale of 30-year bonds. June 10-year T-note prices on Wednesday closed little changed. T-notes had traded lower after stronger-than-expected U.S. Feb retail sales boosted stocks and reduced safe-haven demand for Treasuries. However, T-note prices recovered in the early afternoon on strong demand for the Treasury's $21 billion 10-year note auction that had a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.19, better than the 12-auction average of 2.96. Closes: TYM3 -0.5, FVM3 -1.0.
The dollar index is up +0.15 (+0.18%) while EUR/USD is down -0.0038 (-0.29%). USD/JPY is up +0.27 (+0.28%). The dollar index on Wednesday climbed to a 7-1/4 month high and closed higher as stronger-than-expected U.S. Feb retail sales bolstered the economic outlook and is positive for dollar assets. EUR/USD slid to a 3-month low after a disappointing Italian bond auction and weaker than expected Eurozone Jan industrial production. Closes: Dollar index +0.305 (+0.37%), EUR/USD -0.00729 (-0.56%), USD/JPY +0.035 (+0.04%).
April WTI crude oil is down -0.17 (-0.18%) while April gasoline is down -0.0293 (-0.93%). Crude oil and gasoline prices on Wednesday closed slightly lower. Bearish factors included the bigger-than-expected +2.624 million bbl increase in weekly DOE crude inventories to 384 million bbl, an 8-1/2 month high, (2) the +0.9% w/w increase in U.S. crude output to 7.159 million barrels a day for the week ended March 8, the highest in 20-1/2 years, and (3) the surge in the dollar index to a 7-1/4 month high. Bullish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected -3.57 million bbl draw in weekly DOE gasoline inventories, and (2) the -1.59 million bbl decline in crude inventories to their lowest level of the year at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for WTI crude futures contracts. Closes: CLJ3 -0.02 (-0.02%), RBJ3 -0.0079 (-0.25%).

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR03/14/2013

US	0830 ET	Weekly initial unemployment claims expected +10,000 to 350,000, previous -7,000 to 340,000. Weekly continuing claims expected -4,000 to 3.090 mln, previous +3,000 to 3.094 mln.
	0830 ET	Feb PPI expected +0.7% m/m and +1.8% y/y, Jan +0.2% m/m and +1.4% y/y. Feb core PPI expected +0.1% m/m and +1.7% y/y, Jan +0.2% m/m and +1.8% y/y.
	0830 ET	Q4 current account balance expected -$113.0 bln, Q3 -$107.5 bln.
	0830 ET	USDA weekly Export Sales.
	0900 ET	Fed Governor Sarah Bloom Raskin delivers welcoming remarks at Neighborworks 35th Anniversary Symposium.
	1100 ET	Treasury announces details of 10-year TIPS auction on March 21.
	1300 ET	Treasury auction of $13 billion in 30-year T-bonds.
	1630 ET	Federal Reserve announces which banks will be able to pay dividends or buy back shares after the March 7 release of bank stress tests.
EUR	n/a	EU 2-day summit begins in Brussels.
	0500 ET	ECB publishes monthly report.
	0600 ET	Eurozone Q4 employment, Q3 -0.2% q/q and -0.7% y/y.
JPN	0000 ET	Tokyo Feb condo sales, Jan -5.4% y/y.
	0030 ET	Revised Japan Jan industrial production, previous +1.0% m/m and -5.1% y/y. Revised Jan capacity utilization, previous 2.9%.
	0200 ET	Revised Japan Feb machine tool orders.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR03/14/2013

Company Name	Symbol	Time	Event Description	Period	EPS Est (US$)
MDU Resources Group Inc	MDU US	8:30	Analyst and Investor Meeting	Y 2013
Onyx Pharmaceuticals Inc	ONXX US	8:30	Analyst Day	Y 2013
ADT Corp/The	ADT US	8:30	Annual General Meeting
Pepco Holdings Inc	POM US	9:00	Analyst Conference	Y 2013
CSX Corp	CSX US	10:00	Business Update Call
ANSYS Inc	ANSS US	10:00	Investor Day	Y 2013
Brocade Communications Systems Inc	BRCD US	11:00	Roadshow - Dallas	Y 2013
United Technologies Corp	UTX US	13:00	Analyst Meeting	Y 2013
Molycorp Inc	MCP US	16:30	Q4 2012 Earnings Call	Q4 2012
Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance Inc	ULTA US	17:00	Q4 2013 Earnings Call	Q4 2013
Molycorp Inc	MCP US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2012 Earnings Release	Q4 2012	-0.3
Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance Inc	ULTA US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2013 Earnings Release	Q4 2013	0.979
Charles Schwab Corp/The	SCHW US		February 2013 Sales and Revenue Release	2013

Barchart Morning Call 3/14

Barchart Morning Call

Barchart.com - Wed Mar 14, 7:00AM CDT

Overnight Developments

• Global stocks this morning are mostly higher with the Euro Stoxx 50 up +0.83% and Jun S&Ps up +2.20 points. The dollar index rose to a 1-3/4 month high, the 10-year T-note yield climbed to a 4-1/4 month high and most commodities retreated with gold falling to a 1-1/2 month low after the Fed bolstered confidence in the U.S. banking system and raised its economic assessment. Late yesterday after the markets closed, the Fed released its stress tests that said 15 of the nation's 19 largest banks could maintain adequate capital levels even in a recession. This helped lift European banking shares with Barclays Plc and Credit Suisse Group Ag up more than 3.5%. Another boost to European shares was the action by Fitch Ratings to raise Greece's credit rating 4 levels to B- from restricted default with a stable outlook on optimism that a debt swap will reduce the risk that it reneges on its debt obligations. A slight negative for stocks was the Jan Euro-Zone industrial production which rose +0.2% m/m and fell -1.2% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.6% m/m and -0.8% y/y.
• Asian stocks today closed mostly higher with Japan up +1.53%, China -2.83%, Australia +0.93%, South Korea +1.11%, India +0.59%. Asian stocks rose after U.S. retail sales jumped and the Fed raised its economic assessment, which boosted the earnings prospects of exporters. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Index climbed to a 7-1/2 month high as exporters rallied when the yen tumbled to a fresh 11-month low against the dollar. China's Shanghai Stock Index bucked the trend and closed lower as property developers plunged after Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said home prices are still too high and that loosening property controls risks "chaos in China's housing sector." The Feb India wholesale-price index climbed 6.95% y/y, its first increase in 5 months and stronger than expectations of a +6.7% y/y gain, which dampens expectations of a rate cut by the RBI at its policy meeting on Thursday.

Overnight U.S. Stock News

• June S&Ps this morning are trading up +2.20 points. The U.S. stock market Tuesday moved higher right from the opening and continued higher throughout the day after German investor confidence rose more than forecast and after Feb U.S. retail sales grew at the fastest pace in 5 months: Dow Jones +1.68%, S&P 500 +1.81%, Nasdaq Composite +1.88%. The S&P 500 posted a 3-3/4 year high, the Dow rose to a 4-year high and the Nasdaq climbed to an 11-year high. Bullish factors Tuesday included (1) carry-over support from a rally in European stocks after the Mar German ZEW economic sentiment rose more than expected to a 21-month high, (2) increased optimism in the U.S. economic outlook after the larger-than-expected increase in Feb U.S. retail sales along with an upward revision to Jan (Feb +1.1% and +0.9% less autos versus expectations of +1.1% and +0.7% less autos and Jan revised up to +0.6% and +1.1% less autos from the originally reported +0.4% and +0.7% less autos), and (3) the action by the Fed to raise their assessment of the economy in its post-FOMC statement that said "labor market conditions have improved further; the unemployment rate has declined notably in recent months but remains elevated," and that "strains in global financial markets have eased, though they continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook."
• Bearish factors Tuesday included (1) ongoing European sovereign-debt concerns after European Commissioner Barroso said the situation in Europe "remains fragile as we are not yet out of the crisis," and (2) insider selling of stocks after data from TrimTabs Investment Research showed U.S. companies and their executives are selling stocks at 2.2 times the pace of buying, the most in over 2 years, as about $15.3 billion of shares have been sold by companies and insiders this month compared with $7.1 billion of purchases.
• Citigroup (C) fell 2.7% in pre-market trading after it failed to meet some standards of the Fed's stress tests and said it will submit a revised capital plan to the Fed later this year.

Today's Market Focus

• June 10-year T-notes this morning are down -21 ticks. T-note prices Tuesday slumped to a 1-1/2 month low and settled lower after Feb U.S. retail sales were stronger than expected along with reduced safe-haven demand for Treasuries as the stock market rallied: TYM2 -20.0, FVM2 -10.2, EDU2 -2.5. Bearish factors Tuesday included (1) the larger-than-expected increase in Feb U.S. retail sales along with an upward revision to Jan (Feb +1.1% and +0.9% less autos versus expectations of +1.1% and +0.7% less autos and Jan revised up to +0.6% and +1.1% less autos from the originally reported +0.4% and +0.7% less autos), (2) reduced safe-haven demand for Treasuries after the S&P 500 rallied up to a 3-3/4 year high, (3) the action by the Fed to raise their assessment of the economy in its post-FOMC statement that said "labor market conditions have improved further; the unemployment rate has declined notably in recent months but remains elevated," and that "strains in global financial markets have eased, though they continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook," and (4) supply pressures ahead of the Treasury's $13 billion auction of 30-year T-bonds on Wednesday. Bullish factors included (1) ongoing European-sovereign debt concerns which keeps the safe-haven demand strong for Treasuries after European Commissioner Barroso said the situation in Europe "remains fragile as we are not yet out of the crisis," and (2) decent demand for the Treasury's $21 billion auction of 10-year T-notes that had a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.24, stronger than the 12-auction average of 3.12.
• The dollar index this morning is stronger and at a 1-3/4 month high with the dollar/yen +0.58 yen and the euro/dollar +0.01 cents. The dollar index Tuesday posted a 1-1/2 month high and settled higher as the yen tumbled to a 10-3/4 month low against the dollar on speculation the BOJ will expand its stimulus measures while the euro fell to a 3-week low against the dollar on speculation a rift may be developing among ECB Council members: Dollar Index +0.303, USD/JPY +0.714, EUR/USD -0.00719. Bullish factors included (1) the strong Feb U.S. retail sales which rose by the most in 5 months and reduces the chance the Fed will add to its dollar-negative stimulus measures, (2) weakness in the yen after BOJ Governor Shirakawa said the BOJ will continue with its strong easing policy, and (3) concern a rift may be building among ECB Council members after ECB Council member and Bundesbank President Weidmann sent a letter to ECB President Draghi saying the ECB is taking risks with its non-standard emergency liquidity measures. Bearish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected increase in the Mar German ZEW economic sentiment to a 21-month high, which is euro supportive and (2) reduced safe-haven demand for the dollar after the S&P 500 rose to a 3-3/4 year high.
• Apr crude oil prices this morning are down -8 cents a barrel and Apr gasoline is +0.59 of a cent per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices Tuesday settled higher after strength in U.S. retail sales along with a surge in German economic sentiment offset the negative aspects of a strong dollar: CLJ12 +$0.37, RBJ +3.16. Apr gasoline posted a 1-week high. Bullish factors included (1) the surge in the Mar German ZEW economic sentiment to a 21-month high, which is positive for energy demand and consumption, (2) the increase in Feb U.S. retail sales by the most in 5 months, which signals economic strength that is positive for fuel consumption, and (3) the rally in the S&P 500 to a 3-3/4 year high, which boosts confidence in the economic outlook and energy demand. Bearish factors included (1) the rally in the dollar index to a 1-1/2 month high, which discourages investment demand in commodities, (2) concern the European sovereign-debt crisis will continue after European Commissioner Barroso said the situation in Europe "remains fragile as we are not yet out of the crisis," and (3) carry-over weakness from the slide in natural gas prices to a 10-year nearest-futures low. Expectations for Wednesday's weekly inventory report from the DOE are for crude oil supplies to climb +1.75 million bbl, gasoline stockpiles to fall -1.5 million bbl, distillate inventories to decline -1.45 million bbl and the refinery utilization rate to remain unchanged at 83.9% of capacity.

Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap): YOKU-Youku (BEST earnings consensus -$0.05), GES-Guess? (1.04), VRA-Vera Bradley (0.47), OILT-Oiltanking Partners LP (0.32), RNF-Rentech Nitrogen Partners LP (0.63), GEOI-GeoResources (0.39), FXCM-FXCM Inc. (0.17), RUE-Rue21 (0.49), NGL-NGL Energy Partners LP (0.68).
Global Financial Calendar

Wednesday 3/14/12
United States
0700 ET	Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous -1.2% with purchase mortgage sub-index +2.1% and refinancing sub-index -2.0%.
0830 ET	Feb import price index expected +0.6% m/m and +5.9% y/y, Jan +0.3% m/m and +7.1% y/y.
0830 ET	Q4 current account balance expected -$114.80 billion, Q3 -$110.28 billion.
0900 ET	Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks at the Independent Community Bankers of America convention in Nashville, TN.
1300 ET	Treasury auctions $13 billion 30-year T-bonds.
Japan
0030 ET	Revised Jan Japan industrial production, previous +2.0% m/m and -1.2% y/y. Revised Jan capacity utilization, previous +3.1% m/m.
0200 ET	Revised Feb Japan machine tool orders, previous -8.6% y/y.
United Kingdom
0530 ET	Feb U.K. jobless claims change expected +5,000, Jan +6,900. Feb claimant count rate expected 5.0%, Jan 5.0%.
0530 ET	Jan U.K. avg weekly earnings expected +1.9% 3-mo/year-over-year, Dec +2.0% 3-mo/year-over-year.
0530 ET	Jan U.K. avg weekly earnings ex-bonus expected +1.9% 3-mo/year-over-year, Dec +2.0% 3-mo/year-over-year.
0530 ET	Jan U.K. ILO unemployment rate expected 8.4%, Dec 8.4%.
Euro-Zone
0600 ET	Feb Euro-Zone CPI expected +0.5% m/m and +2.7% y/y, Jan -0.8% m/m and +2.6% y/y. Feb core CPI expected +1.6% y/y, Jan +1.5% y/y.
0600 ET	Jan Euro-Zone industrial production expected +0.6% m/m and -0.8% y/y, Dec -1.2% m/m and -2.0% y/y.
0800 ET	ECB Executive Board member Peter Praet speaks at the ?Collateral Solutions Conference? in Paris.
Canada
0830 ET	Q4 Canada capacity utilization rate expected 81.5%, Q3 81.3%.

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