Monday, January 26th, 2015View Older Reports
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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
March E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 -0.26%) this morning are down -0.34% after Greek opposition party Syriza won in Sunday's election. European stocks, however, shook off early losses and are up +0.18% after Syriza leader Tsipras pledged to keep Greece within the Eurozone as he negotiates a write-down of Greek debt. European stocks also received a boost after a gauge of German business confidence rose more than expected to the highest in 6 months. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan -0.25%, Hong Kong +0.24%, China +1.02%, Taiwan +0.07%, Australia and India closed for holiday, Singapore -0.38%, South Korea -0.07%. Commodity prices are mostly lower. Mar crude oil (CLH15 -1.07%) is down -1.14% at a 1-1/2 week low. Mar gasoline (RBH15 -1.19%) is down -1.33%. Feb gold (GCG15 -0.87%) is down -1.10%. Mar copper (HGH15 -1.16%) is down -1.06% at a 5-1/2 year low after the dollar index climbed to an 11-1/3 year high and on signs of increasing supplies after LME copper inventories rose +1,700 MT to 236,850 MT, the most in 8-3/4 months. Agriculture prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.20%) is up +0.24% at an 11-1/3 year high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.18%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.37%. Mar T-note prices (ZNH15 +0.04%) are down -1 tick.The German Jan IFO business climate rose +1.2 to 16.7, better than expectations of +1.0 to 106.5 and the highest in 6 months. The Jan IFO current assessment rose +1.9 to 111.7, stronger than expectations of +0.8 to 110.8. Jan IFO expectations rose +0.7 to 102.0, less than expectations of +1.4 to 102.5.
The Japan Dec trade balance shrink to a -660.7 billion yen deficit from an upward revised -893.5 billion yen deficit in Nov, a smaller deficit than expectations of -735.2 billion yen and the smallest deficit in 1-1/2 years. Dec exports rose +12.9% y/y, better than expectations of +11.2% y/y and the most in a year. Dec imports rose +1.9% y/y, slightly less than expectations of +2.0% y/y.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
There are no major U.S. economic reports today. There are 9 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today: Microsoft (0.75), Texas Instruments (0.69), Seagate (1.35), DR Horton (0.34), Roper Industries (1.79), Norfolk Souther (1.64), WW Grainger (2.83), Plum Creek Timber (0.34), Zions Bancorp (0.42). Equity conferences this week include: Phacilitate Immunotherapy Forum on Mon-Wed, and PCC 2015. CBI's Pharmaceutical Compliance Congress on Tue.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
LyondellBasell (LYB -0.75%) and Westlake (WLK -0.90%) were both downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill Lynch.United Parcel Service (UPS -9.91%) was downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Macquarie.
Unilever (UL +1.19%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Underperform' at BofA/Merrill Lynch.
Roper Industries (ROP -0.35%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.85, higher than conensus of $1.79.
DR Horton (DHI -2.49%) reporteed Q1 EPS of 39 cents, better than consensus of 34 cents.
Endo (ENDP -1.44%) will replace (COV +1.52%) Covidien in theS&P 500 as of today's close.
Knight Transportation (KNX +0.30%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at KeyBanc.
Amici Capital reported a 6.78% passive stake in Uroplasty (UPI -20.38%) .
HCA Holdings (HCA -2.50%) will replace Safeway (SWY unch) in the S&P 500 as of the close of trading today.
Salient Capital Advisors reported a 5.74% passive stake in NGL Energy Partners (NGL -0.45%) .
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved Bexsero, a vaccine from Novartis (NVS +0.03%) to prevent invasive meningococcal disease.
Van Berkom & Associates reported a 9.41% passive stake in RE/MAX Holdings (RMAX -0.65%) .
Point72 Asset reported a5.2% passive stake in ZELTIQ (ZLTQ -0.79%) .
MARKET COMMENTS
Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 -0.26%) this morning are down -7.00 points (-0.34%). The S&P 500 index on Friday retreated from a 1-1/2 week high and closed lower: S&P 500 +1.53%, Dow Jones +1.48%, Nasdaq +1.87%. Bearish factors included (1) the +2.4% increase in U.S. Dec existing home sales to 5.04 million, weaker than expectations of +3.0% to 5.08 million, and (2) weakness in transportation stocks after UPS tumbled when it reported weaker-than-expected 2014 earnings. Stocks had opened higher on carry-over support from a rally in European stocks to a 6-1/3 year high on optimism the ECB’s quantitative easing program will spur economic growth in the Eurozone.Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH15 +0.04%) this morning are down -1 tick. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices on Friday closed higher. Closes: TYH5 +17.50, FVH5 +8.50. Bullish factors included (1) carry-over support from a rally in European bonds that sent the 10-year German bund yield down to a record low of 0.345%, and (2) increased safe-haven demand for T-notes after stocks erased an early rally and closed lower.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.20%) this morning is up +0.228 (+0.24%) at a new 11-1/3 year high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0020 (+0.18%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.44 (+0.37%). The dollar index on Friday rose to an 11-1/3 year high and closed higher: Dollar index +0.685 (+0.73%), EUR/USD -0.01615 (-1.42%), USD/JPY -0.745 (-0.63%). Bullish factors included (1) the fall in EUR/USD to an 11-1/3 year low on negative carry-over from ECB’s QE announcement on Thursday, and (2) Greek sovereign debt concerns on speculation the anti-austerity Syriza party would win Sunday’s election in Greece.
Mar WTI crude oil (CLH15 -1.07%) this morning is down 52 cents (-1.14%) and Mar gasoline (RBH15 -1.19%) is down -0.0182 (-1.33%). Mar crude oil and Mar gasoline on Friday settled mixed with Mar crude at a 1-week low: CLH5 -0.72 (-1.55%), RBH5 +0.0156 (+1.15%). Bearish factors included (1) the rally in the dollar index to an 11-1/3 year high, and (2) comments from Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, the new Saudi Arabian king, that he will maintain the current Saudi crude oil policy of refusing to cut production. Crude prices recovered from their worst levels and gasoline closed higher on signs of global economic growth after the China Jan HSBC flash manufacturing PMI and the Eurozone Jan Markit manufacturing PMI both rose more than expected.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR01/26/2015
| US | 1030 ET | Jan Dallas Fed outlook of manufacturing activity expected -0.1 to 4.0, Dec -6.4 to 4.1. |
| 1100 ET | USDA weekly grain export inspections. | |
| GER | 0400 ET | German Jan IFO business climate expected +1.0 to 106.5, Dec 105.5. Jan IFO current assessment expected +1.0 to 110.8, Dec 109.8. Jan IFO expectations expected +1.1 to 102.5, Dec 101.4. |
| JPN | 1850 ET | Japan Dec PPI services expected +3.6% y/y, Nov +3.6% y/y. |
| CHI | 2030 ET | China Dec industrial profits, Nov -4.2% y/y. |
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR01/26/2015
| Company | Ticker | Time | Event Description | Period | Estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seagate Technology PLC | STX US | Bef-mkt | Q2 2015 Earnings Release | Q2 2015 | 1.348 |
| DR Horton Inc | DHI US | 7:00 | Q1 2015 Earnings Release | Q1 2015 | 0.344 |
| Roper Industries Inc | ROP US | 7:00 | Q4 2014 Earnings Release | Q4 2014 | 1.792 |
| WW Grainger Inc | GWW US | 7:30 | Q4 2014 Earnings Call | Q4 2014 | |
| Norfolk Southern Corp | NSC US | 8:00 | Q4 2014 Earnings Release | Q4 2014 | 1.638 |
| WW Grainger Inc | GWW US | 8:00 | Q4 2014 Earnings Release | Q4 2014 | 2.83 |
| Roper Industries Inc | ROP US | 8:30 | Q4 2014 Earnings Call | Q4 2014 | |
| Norfolk Southern Corp | NSC US | 8:45 | Q4 2014 Earnings Call | Q4 2014 | |
| Seagate Technology PLC | STX US | 9:00 | Q2 2015 Earnings Call | Q2 2015 | |
| DR Horton Inc | DHI US | 10:00 | Q1 2015 Earnings Call | Q1 2015 | |
| Texas Instruments Inc | TXN US | 16:30 | Q4 2014 Earnings Release | Q4 2014 | 0.691 |
| Plum Creek Timber Co Inc | PCL US | 17:00 | Q4 2014 Earnings Call | Q4 2014 | |
| Plum Creek Timber Co Inc | PCL US | Aft-mkt | Q4 2014 Earnings Release | Q4 2014 | 0.335 |
| Microsoft Corp | MSFT US | Aft-mkt | Q2 2015 Earnings Release | Q2 2015 | 0.749 |
| Zions Bancorporation | ZION US | Aft-mkt | Q4 2014 Earnings Release | Q4 2014 | 0.424 |
| Texas Instruments Inc | TXN US | 17:30 | Q4 2014 Earnings Call | Q4 2014 | |
| Microsoft Corp | MSFT US | 17:30 | Q2 2015 Earnings Call | Q2 2015 | |
| Zions Bancorporation | ZION US | 17:30 | Q4 2014 Earnings Call | Q4 2014 |
