Financial Tides -- A Stock Market Investing Newsletter by Jim Van Meerten: 2015-08-16

Saturday, August 22, 2015

Sell Signals - GAIN NMR

This week I deleted Gladstone Investments (GAIN) and Nomura Holdings (NMR) from the Barchart Van Meerten Speculative portfolio for negative price momentum.

Gladstone Investments (GAIN)

Barchart technical indicators:

72% Barchart technical sell signals
Trend Spotter sell signal
Below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
9.45% off its 52 week high
Relative Strength Index 22.90%
Recently traded at 7.47 with 50 day moving average of 7.92

Nomura Holdings (NMR)

Barchart technical indicators:

56% Barchart technical sell signals
Trend Spotter sell signal
Below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
14.07% off its 52 week high
Relative Strength Index 24.54%
Recently traded at 6.29 with a 50 day moving average of 6.92

Sell Signals - MTG WBS CBRL

The week I deleted MGIC Investments (MTG), Webster Financial (WBS) and Cracker Barrel Old Store Country Store (CBRL) from the Barchart Van Meerten New High Portfolio for negative price momentum.

MGIC Investments (MTG)

Barchart technical indicators:

72% Barc hart technical sell signals
Trend Spotter sell signal
Below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
11.86% off its 52 week high
Relative Strength Index 26.99%
Weighted Alpha 20.70
Recently traded at 10.33 which is below its 50 day moving average of 11.12

Webster Financial (WBS)

Barchart technical indicators:

72% Barchart technical sell signals
Trend Spotter sell signal
Below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
12.75% off its 52 week high
Relative Strength Index 30.57%
Weighted Alpha 17.70+
Recently traded at 36.07 with a 50 day moving average of 39.08

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL)

Barchart technical indicators:

56% Barchart technical sell signals
Trend Spotter sell signal
Below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
11.34% off its 52 week high
Relative Strength Index 33.58%
Weighted Alpha 34.50+
Recently traded at 143.92 with a 50 day moving average of 150.60

Friday, August 21, 2015

Russell 3000 Index - Chart of the Ady

The Russell 3000 Index ($RUA) is the Barchart Chart of the Day. Based on that Index there is a Trend Spotter sell signal, the Idex has a Weighted Alpha of negative 4.23 and the Index is 7.81% off its 52 week high.

The Chart of the Day is the Russell 3000 Index ($RUA). In order to understand the market you should analyze the Index the way you would an individual stock. Since the Trend Spotter signaled a sell on 8/5 the Index lost 6.51%.

The Russell 3000 Index measures the performance of the largest 3,000 U.S. companies representing approximately 98% of the investable U.S. equity market. The Russell 3000 Index is constructed to provide a comprehensive, unbiased and stable barometer of the broad market and is completely reconstituted annually to ensure new and growing equities are reflected.

The status of Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical sell signals
Trend Spotter sell signal
Below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
7.81% off its 52 week high
Negative 4.23 Weighted Alpha
Relative Strength Index 25.07%
Recently traded at 1,176.23 which is below its 50 day moving average of 1,249.22

Note that at the close of the market today 62.42% of the 3000 stocks included in the Index were trading below their 200 day moving averages. The 50-100 Day MACD Oscillator has been a very effective technical trading strategy for this index. Conservative investors who are following a sell point discipline should consider staying in cash. Aggressive investors should consider shorting individual stocks or buying inverse ETFs.

HOW BAD IS IT?

Pretty Bad!

I use the 6 Exchange Traded Funds listed below as my market barometers. Except for the NASDAQ 100 ETF (QQQ) there is little if any duplication or overlap in the stock contained in each ETF. Please note that every single ETF listed has a Barchart technical sell signal, a Trend Spotter sell signal and is trading below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages.

S&P 500 Large Cap Index Ishare ETF (IVV)

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical sell signals
Trend Spotter sell signal
Below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
7.11% off its 52 week high
Negative 3.40 Weighted Alpha
Relative Strength Index 26.63%
Recently traded at 199.51 which is below its 50 day moving average of 210.48

S&P 400 Mid Cap Index Ishare ETF (IJH)

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical sell signals
Trend Spotter sell signal
Below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
7.85% off its 52 week high
Negative 2.40 Weighted Alpha
Relative Strength Index 30.49%
Recenlty traded at 142.74 which is below its 50 day moving average of 150.31

S&P 600 Small Cap Index Ishare ETF (IJR)

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical sell signals
Trend Spotter sell signal
Below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
8.72% off its 52 week high
Negative 1.30 Weighted Alpha
Relative Strength Index 30.81
Recenlty traded at 111.34 which is below its 50 day moving average of 117.46

Russell Micro Cap Index Ishare ETF (IWC)

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical sell signals
Trend Spotter sell signal
Below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
12.72% off its 52 week high
Negative 2.60 Weighted Alpha
Relative Strength Index 25.88%
Recently traded at 73.55 which is below its 50 day moving average of 79.63

NASDAQ 100 QQQ Index Powershares EFT (QQQ)

Barchart technical indicators:

56% Barchart technical sell signals
Trend Spotter sell signal
Below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
9.71% off its 52 week high
Positive .30 Weighted Alpha
Relative Strength Index 26.16%
Recently traded at 103.19 which is below its 50 day moving average of 110.00

Emerging Markets Index MSCI Ishares ETF (EEM)

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical sell signals
Trend Spotter sell signal
Below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
28.38% off its 52 week high
Negative 30.50 Weighted Alpha
Relative Strength Index 19.64%
Recently traded at 32.80 which is below its 50 day moving average of 37.81

Conservative accounts should be liquidating into cash. Aggressive account should be shorting individual stocks or buying inverse ETFs.

BARCHART MORNING CALL 8/21

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Friday, August 21st, 2015View Older Reports

Everything you need to know about the markets in one free daily newsletter.

You will also receive a free subscription to the Barchart family of newsletters.

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

September E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 -0.23%) are down -0.19% at a 6-1/2 month low and European stocks are down -1.26% at a 6-week low after weaker-than-expected Chinese manufacturing data added to concern that the global economic slowdown is deepening. U.S. and European stocks recovered a majority of their losses after Eurozone manufacturing data showed the European economy picked up momentum after the German Aug Markit/BME manufacturing PMI unexpectedly expanded at its fastest pace in 16 months. Asian stocks closed sharply lower: Japan -2.98%, Hong Kong -1.53%, China -4.27%, Taiwan -3.02%, Australia -1.40%, Singapore -1.29%, South Korea -1.92%, India -0.88%. China's Shanghai Composite and Japan's Nikkei Stock Index fell to 6-week lows after a measure of China's manufacturing activity contracted at the fastest pace in 6-1/3 years. Emerging market currencies also sold off against the dollar as the South African rand fell to a nearly 14-year low, India's rupee declined to a nearly 2-year low and the Malaysian ringgit slumped to a 17-year low.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.58%) is down -0.66% at a 1-1/2 month low on speculation the turmoil in global financial markets will keep the Fed from raising interest rates. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.43% at a 1-3/4 month high after European manufacturing activity expanded at a faster pace than expected. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.71% at a 1-1/4 month low as the slump in global stocks boosts the safe-haven demand for the yen.

Sep T-note prices (ZNU15 +0.13%) are up +4 ticks at a 1-week high.
The China Aug Caixin manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell -0.7 to 47.1, weaker than expectations of +0.4 to 48.2 and the slowest pace of growth in 6-1/3 years.
The German Aug Markit/BME manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose +1.4 to 53.2, stronger than expectations of -0.2 to 51.6 and the fastest pace of growth in 16 months. The Aug Markit services PMI fell -0.2 to 53.6, weaker than expectations of -0.1 to 53.7.
The Eurozone Aug Markit manufacturing PMI was unch at 52.4, better than expectations of -0.2 to 52.2. The Aug Markit composite PMI unexpectedly rose +0.2 to 54.1, stronger than expectations of -0.2 to 53.7.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: No economic reports or Fed speakers scheduled for today.
There are 3 of the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 companies that reports earnings today: Deere & Co. (consensus $1.44), Hibbett Sports (0.27), ANN Inc. (0.69).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today include: None.
Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: None.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Lufthansa (DLAKY -0.39%) was downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Neutral' at Goldman Sachs.
Foot Locker (FL -3.16%) reported Q2 EPS of 84 cents, well above consensus of 69 cents.
Deere & Co. (DE -1.45%) reported Q3 EPS of $1.53, better than consensus of $1.44.
Adidas (ADDDY) was upgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Sell' at Goldman Sachs.
Biogen reported a 8.1% passive stake in Applied Genetic (AGTC -3.42%) .
The Fresh Market (TFM -2.42%) slumped over 10% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 36 cents, weaker than consensus of 40 cents, and then lowered guidance on fiscal 2015 adjusted EPS view to $1.55-$1.65 from $1.85-$1.93, below consensus of $1.85.
Ross Stores (ROST -0.81%) dropped over 8% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 EPS of 63 cents, above consensus of 62 cents, but then lowered guidance on fiscal 2015 EPS to $2.40-$2.45, at the lower end of consensus of $2.45.
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ -1.41%) reported Q3 EPS of 88 cents, better than consensus of 85 cents.
Salesforce.com (CRM -5.86%) rose over 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 19 cents, higher than consensus of 18 cents.
Brocade (BRCD -3.19%) jumped 7% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 27 cents, better than consensus of 22 cents, and then Summit Reasearch upgraded the stock to 'Buy' from 'Hold.'
Intuit (INTU -3.14%) slid 4% in after-hours trading after it reported a Q4 adjusted EPS loss of -5 cents, a smaller loss than consensus of -12 cents, but then lowered guidance on fiscal 2016 adjusted EPS to $3.40-$3.45, below consensus of $3.82.
Gap (GPS -1.29%) reported Q2 EPS ex-items of 64 cents, right on consensus.

MARKET COMMENTS

Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 -0.23%) this morning are down -3.75 points (-0.19%) at a fresh 6-1/2 month low. Thursday's closes: S&P 500 -2.11%, Dow Jones -2.06%, Nasdaq -2.79%. The S&P 500 Thursday plunged to a 6-1/2 month low on concern that global growth will slow as emerging-market stocks plummeted after Kazakhstan stopped supporting its currency. Another negative was the unexpected -0.2% decline in U.S. Jul leading indicators, weaker than expectations of +0.2%. Losses in stocks accelerated after the S&P took out its July low, which spurred technical selling. On the positive side, U.S. Jul existing home sales unexpectedly rose +2.0% to an 8-1/3 year high of 5.59 and the Aug Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey rose +2.6 to 8.3, stronger than expectations of +0.8 to 6.5.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU15 +0.13%) this morning are up +4 ticks at a 1-week high. Thursday's closes: TYU5 +7.50, FVU5 +1.00. Sep T-notes Thursday rose to a 1-week high and closed higher after global equity markets plunged, which fueled safe-haven buying of T-notes, and after the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation rate dropped to a 7-month low, which may delay a Fed rate hike.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.58%) this morning is down -0.633 (-0.66%) at a 1-1/2 month low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0048 (+0.43%) at a 1-3/4 month high. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.87 (-0.71%) at a 1-1/4 month low. Thursday's closes: Dollar Index -0.379 (-0.39%), EUR/USD +0.0122 (+1.10%), USD/JPY -0.40 (-0.32%). The dollar index Thursday slid to a 1-1/4 month low as global stocks plunged, which increased safe-haven demand for the yen and sent USD/JPY to a 3-week low. Another negative for the dollar was the drop in the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation rate to a 7-month low, which may keep the Fed from raising interest rates.
Oct crude oil (CLV15 -0.34%) this morning is down -24 cents (-0.58%) and Oct gasoline (RBV15 -1.64%) is down -0.0248 (-1.78%). Thursday's closes: CLV5 +0.05 (+0.12%), RBV5 -0.0251 (-1.77%). Oct crude and gasoline sold off Thursday to contract lows as the slump in global equity markets raised concern that global growth and energy demand will slow. Also, the persistent crude supply glut is negative for oil prices with U.S. crude supplies nearly 100 million bbl above their 5-year seasonal average. Oct crude recovered its losses and closed higher, however, after the dollar index tumbled to a 1-1/4 month low.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR08/21/2015

US	0945 ET	Aug Markit manufacturing PMI expected +0.1 to 53.9, Jul 53.8.
	1500 ET	USDA Jul Cold Storage.
	1500 ET	USDA Jul Cattle on Feed.
GER	0200 ET	German Sep GfK consumer confidence expected unch at 10.1.
	0330 ET	German Aug Markit/BME manufacturing PMI expected -0.2 to 51.6, Jul 51.8. Aug Markit services PMI expected -0.1 to 53.7, Jul 53.8.
UK	0430 ET	UK Jul public sector net borrowing expected -2.8 billion pounds, Jun +8.6 billion pounds.
EUR	0400 ET	Eurozone Aug Markit manufacturing PMI expected -0.2 to 52.2, Jul 52.4. Aug Markit composite PMI expected -0.2 to 53.7, Jul 53.9.
	1000 ET	Eurozone Aug consumer confidence expected +0.2 to -6.9, Jul -7.1.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR08/21/2015

Company	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Deere & Co	DE US	Bef-mkt	Q3 2015 Earnings Release	Q3 2015	1.439
Hibbett Sports Inc	HIBB US	Bef-mkt	Q2 2016 Earnings Release	Q2 2016	0.271
ANN INC	ANN US		Q2 2016 Earnings Release	Q2 2016	0.692

Thursday, August 20, 2015

I am in Cash

I don't think we are at the start of a total market reversal or long term bear market but you cannot ignore that when the market closed today 63.54% off all the stocks were trading below their 200 day moving averages.

That tells me there is more downside potential than upside potential.

I don't mind sitting the next few dances out until I see 50% of the stocks trading above their 20 and 50 day moving averages again.

Better to be cautious than broke.

The Hackett Group - Chart of the Day

The Hackett Group (HCKT) is the Barchart Chart of the Day. The management consulting services company has a Trend Spotter buy signal, a Weighted Alpha of 137.19+ and gained 134.62% in the last year.

The Chart of the Day belongs to The Hackett Group (HCKT). I found the management consulting services stock by using Barchart to sort the stock in the Russell 3000 Index first for the highest Weighted Alpha, then for those having technical buy signals above 80%. Next I used the Flipchart feature to review the charts. Since the Trend Spotter signaled a buy on 8/12 the stock gained 2.10%.

The Hackett Group, a global strategic advisory firm and an Answerthink company, is a leader in best practice research and advisory programs, benchmarking and transformation consulting services, including shared services, offshoring and outsourcing advice. Utilizing best practices and implementation insight from more than 4,000 benchmarking studies, executives use Hackett's empirically based approach to quickly define and prioritize initiatives, and to leverage proven strategies that enable world-class performance.

96% Barchart technical buy signals
137.19+ Weighted Alpha
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
6 new highs and up 9.01% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 65.92%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 14.35
Recently traded at 14.64 with a 50 day moving average of 13.08

Fundamental factors:

Market Cap $434.18 million
P/E 29.90
Dividend yield .67%
Revenue expected to grow 7.30% this year and another 6.60% next year
Earnings are estimated to increase 23.20% this year, an additional 11.60% next year and continue to increase 15.00% annually for the next 5 years
Wall Street analysts issued 1 strong buy and 2 buy recommendations on the stock

The 20-100 Day MACD Oscillator has been the most effective technical trading strategy for this stock.

BARCHART MORNING C ALL 8/20

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Thursday, August 20th, 2015View Older Reports

Everything you need to know about the markets in one free daily newsletter.

You will also receive a free subscription to the Barchart family of newsletters.

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

September E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 -0.75%) are down -0.75% at a 1-week low and European stocks are down -1.25% at a 1-1/4 month low on concern over emerging markets. The plunge in crude oil to a 6-1/3 year low has prompted Kazakhstan, Central Asia's largest crude producer, to let its currency the tenge, float freely. The tenge immediately plunged 23% to a record low 257.21 per dollar and fueled a rally in gold prices (GCZ15 +0.84%) to a 1-month high. Kazakhstan was forced to devalue its currency in an attempt to stay competitive with China and Russia, its two top trading partners, after both countries devalued their currencies. The sell-off in emerging markets may continue as declining commodity prices curbs revenue and China's surprise devaluation of the yuan last week may force other countries to devalue their currencies in order to stay competitive. Other emerging market currencies fell sharply as well with Turkey's lira at a record low of 3 per dollar, the South African rand at a 14-year low of 13 per dollar, and Malaysia's ringgit plunging to a 17-year low against the dollar. Energy producing stocks are lower as crude oil continues its slide and is down -1.53% (CLV15 -0.87%) at a fresh 6-1/3 year low. Asian stocks closed lower: Japan -0.94%, Hong Kong -1.77%, China -3.42%, Taiwan +0.10%, Australia -1.70%, Singapore -1.03%, South Korea -1.14%, India -1.16%. Weakness in commodity and energy producers hammered Asian stocks with Japan's Nikkei Stock Index falling to a 1-1/4 month low. China's Shanghai Composite tumbled over 3% amid concern a slowing economy and weaker yuan will spur capital outflows.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.16%) is down -0.14% after Wednesday's FOMC minutes from Jul 28-29 said that policy makers needed to see more improvement in the U.S. labor market and in the inflation rate before they begin to raise interest rates. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.46%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.17%.

Sep T-note prices (ZNU15 +0.16%) are up +8 ticks at a 1-week high as the slump in global equity markets spurs safe-haven demand for government debt. The German 10-year bund yield fell to a 2-1/2 month low of 0.575%.
German Jul PPI was unch m/m and fell -1.3% y/y, right on expectations.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) weekly initial unemployment claims (expected -4,000 to 270,000 and continuing claims expected -8,000 to 2.265 million), (2) Jul existing home sales (expected -1.1% to 5.43 million), (3) Jul leading indicators (expected +0.2%), and (4) the Aug Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey (expected +1.1 to 6.8).
There are 5 of the S&P 500 companies that reports earnings today: the Gap (consensus $0.64), Ross Stores (0.62), Hewlett-Packard (0.86), Intuit (-0.11), salesforce.com (0.18).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today include: IMS Health Holdings ($31.40), Surgical Care Affiliates (37.95), First Foundation (19.25), Benefitfocus Inc. (36.75).
Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: none.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Union Pacific (UNP -0.67%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Outperform' at Macquarie.
Disney (DIS -0.46%) and Time Warner (TWX -1.51%) were both downgraded to 'Market Perform' from 'Outperform' at Bernstein.
Tech Data (TECD -0.55%) reported Q2 non-GAAP EPS of $1.43, well above consensus of 96 cents.
Lockheed Martin (LMT -0.65%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Sterne Agee CRT.
Analog Devices (ADI +0.83%) was downgraded to 'Reduce' from 'Neutral' at Nomura.
Targa Resources (TRGP -3.21%) was downgraded to 'Underperform' from 'Hold' at Jefferies.
The recent sell-off in AMC Networks (AMCX -1.14%) provides a 'great' entry point, says Piper Jaffray, who reiterates their 'Overweight' rating on the stock with a $90 price target.
FrontFour Capital reported a 7.4% passive stake in North American Energy (NOA -0.53%) .
Fifth Third Bank (FITB -0.80%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at Sterne Agee CRT with a price target of $25.
L Brands (LB -0.21%) fell over 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 EPS of 68 cents, right on consensus, but then lowered guidance on Q3 EPS to 40 cents-45 cents, weaker than consensus of 48 cents.
United Natural Foods (UNFI -0.75%) lowered guidance on fiscal 2016 EPS to $2.86-$2.98, below consensus of $3.05.
Mattel (MAT -1.70%) was initiated with an 'Outperform' at Oppenheimer with a price target of $28.
Leidos (LDOS -0.29%) was awarded a $4.3 billion contract by the U.S. Department of Defense as part of the Defense Healthcare Management System Modernization Program to provide an electronic health record solution, integration activities and deployment across the U.S. military health system.
SpartanNash (SPTN -1.93%) reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 53 cents, above consensus of 51 cents.
Synopsys (SNPS +0.62%) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 63 cents, higher than consensus of 59 cents.
NetApp (NTAP -1.65%) shot up over 6% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 EPS of 29 cents, better than consensus of 23 cents.

MARKET COMMENTS

Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 -0.75%) this morning are down -15.50 points (-0.75%) at a 1-week low. Wednesday's closes: S&P 500 -0.83%, Dow Jones -0.93%, Nasdaq -0.69%. The S&P 500 closed lower Wednesday after crude oil plunged to a 6-1/3 year low, which undercut energy producers, while raw-material and industrial stocks closed lower on China growth concerns after copper fell to a 6-year low. Stocks briefly recovered from their worst levels after the Jul 28-29 FOMC meeting minutes said that policy makers need to see further improvement in the labor market and inflation before they begin to raise interest rates.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU15 +0.16%) this morning are up +8 ticks at a 1-week high. Wednesday's closes: TYU5 +20.50, FVU5 +13.00. Sep T-notes closed higher Wednesday after stocks sold-off, which boosted the safe-haven demand for T-notes, and after crude oil skid to a 6-1/3 year low, which reduced inflation expectations as the 10-year T-note inflation breakeven rate dropped to a 7-month low.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.16%) this morning is down -0.131 (-0.14%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0051 (+0.46%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.21 (+0.17%). Wednesday's closes: Dollar Index -0.681 (-0.70%), EUR/USD +0.00975 (+0.88%), USD/JPY +0.022 (+0.02%). The dollar closed lower Wednesday after the Jul 28-29 FOMC minutes said that policy members wanted to see improvement in the labor market and inflation before they start to hike interest rates. Another negative for the dollar was the fall in USD/JPY to a 2-week low as the swoon in stocks boosted the safe-haven demand for the yen.
Oct crude oil (CLV15 -0.87%) this morning is down -63 cents (-1.53%0 at a contract low and Oct gasoline (RBV15 -1.93%) is down -0.0351 (-2.48%) at a contract low. Wednesday's closes: CLV5 -2.26 (-5.24%), RBV5 -0.0737 (-4.97%). Oct crude Wednesday fell to a contract low and nearest-futures (U15) crude slumped to a 6-1/3 year low after weekly EIA crude inventories unexpectedly rose (+2.62 million bbl vs. expectations of a -820,000 bbl decline). Crude prices were also pressured after crude stockpiles at Cushing, OK, the delivery point of WTI futures, rose +326,000 bbl, the first increase in 4 weeks.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR08/20/2015

US	0245 ET	San Francisco Fed President John Williams delivers keynote address at the Bank of Indonesia-BIS Research Conference in Jakarta, Indonesia.
	0830 ET	Weekly initial unemployment claims expected -4,000 to 270,000, previous +5,000 to 274,000. Weekly continuing claims expected -8,000 to 2.265 million, previous +15,000 to 2.273 million.
	0830 ET	USDA weekly Export Sales.
	1000 ET	Jul existing home sales expected -1.1% to 5.43 million, Jun +3.2% m/m to 5.49 million.
	1000 ET	Jul leading indicators expected +0.2%, Jun +0.6%.
	1000 ET	Aug Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey expected +1.1 to 6.8, Jul -9.5 to 5.7.
	1100 ET	Treasury announces amount of 2-year T-notes (previous $26 billion), 2-year floating-rate notes (previous $15 billion), 5-year T-notes (previous $35 billion) and 7-year T-notes (previous $29 billion) to be auctioned Aug 25-27.
	1300 ET	Treasury auctions $16 billion of 5-year TIPS in reopening of April 5-year TIPS maturing Apr-2020.
	2020 ET	Minneapolis Fed President Narayan Kocherlakota speaks in Seoul at a Bank of Korea event titled Macroeconomic Policy and Price Measurement Issues in a Low Inflation Environment.
GER	0200 ET	German Jul PPI expected unch m/m and -1.3% y/y, Jun -0.1% m/m and -1.4% y/y.
UK	0430 ET	UK Jul retail sales including auto fuel expected +0.4% m/m and +4.4% y/y, Jun -0.2% m/m and +4.0% y/y. Jul retail sales ex auto fuel expected +0.4% m/m and +4.3% y/y, Jun -0.2% m/m and +4.2% y/y.
	0600 ET	UK Aug CBI trends total orders expected unch at -10. Aug CBI trends selling prices, Jul 1.
EUR	0730 ET	ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny speaks on an academic panel about Europes Crisis: Monetary Policy, Financial Markets, or Real Investment?
JPN	2135 ET	Japan Aug Nikkei manufacturing PMI, Jul 51.2.
CHI	2145 ET	China Aug Caixin flash manufacturing PMI expected +0.4 to 48.2, Jul 47.8.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR08/20/2015

Company	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
L Brands Inc	LB US	9:00	Q2 2016 Earnings Call	Q2 2016
Gap Inc/The	GPS US	16:00	Q2 2016 Earnings Release	Q2 2016	0.64
Ross Stores Inc	ROST US	16:00	Q2 2016 Earnings Release	Q2 2016	0.623
Hewlett-Packard Co	HPQ US	Aft-mkt	Q3 2015 Earnings Release	Q3 2015	0.856
Intuit Inc	INTU US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	-0.112
salesforce.com inc	CRM US	Aft-mkt	Q2 2016 Earnings Release	Q2 2016	0.175

Wednesday, August 19, 2015

Novavax - Chart of the Day

Novavax (NVAX) is the Barchart Chart of the Day. The biopharmaceutical company has a Trend Spotter buy signal, a Weighted Alpha of 187.30+ and gained 186.02% in the last year.

The Chart of the Day belongs to Novavax (NVAX). I found the biopharmaceutical stock by using Barchart to sort the Russell 3000 Index stocks for the stocks with the highest Weighted Alpha then again for the stocks with technical buy signals of 80% or better.

Novavax is a specialty biopharmaceutical company engaged in the research, development and commercialization of proprietary products focused on women's health and infectious diseases. Their technology platforms involve the use of proprietary, microscopic, organized, non-phospholipid structures as vehicles for the delivery of a wide variety of drugs and other therapeutic products, including certain hormones, anti-bacterial and anti-viral products and vaccine adjuvants.

88% Barchart technical buy signals
187.30+ Weighted Alpha
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
3 new highs and up 8.82% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 57.04%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 12.99
Recently traded at 13.12 with a 50 day moving average of 11.48

Fundamental factors:

Market Cap $3.52 billion
Revenue projected to decrease
Earnings estimated to decrease
In spite of these projections Wall Street analysts issued 6 strong buy recommendations on the stock

The 20-100 Day MACD Oscillator has been the most reliable technical trading strategy on this stock.

The 5 Best NASDAQ 100 Stocks

Today I wanted to find the best stocks in the NASDAQ 100 Index so I used Barchart to sort the list first by Weighted Alpha then for Technical Buy Signals of 80% or better. Next I used the Flipchart feature to review the charts.

Today's list includes Netflix (NFLX), Monster Beverage (MNST), O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY), Starbucks (SBUX) and Ross Stores (ROST).

Netflix (NFLX)

Barchart technical indicators:

88% Barchart technical buy signals
95.06+ Weighted Alpha
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
4 new highs and up 8.09% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 65.88%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 121.58
Recently traded at 124.05 with a 50 day moving average of 105.55

Monster Beverage (MNST)

Barchart technical indicators:

80% Barchart technical buy signals
68.74+ Weighted Alpha
Trend Spotter hold signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
9 new highs and up 7.47% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 57.42%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 149.01
Recently traded at 150.22 with a 50 day moving average of 140.55

O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY)

Barchart technical indicators:

96% Barchart technical buy signals
63.69+ Weighted Alpha
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
6 new highs and up 6.60% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 74.39%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 250.89
Recently traded at 254.45 with a 50 day moving average of 236.83

Starbucks (SBUX)

Barchart technical indicators:

88% Barchart technical buy signals
53.33+ Weighted Alpha
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
5 new highs and up 3.84% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 61.28%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 57.45
Recently traded at 57.83 with a 50 day moving average of 55.40

Ross Stores (ROST)

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical buy signals
50.27+ Weighted Alpha
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
5 new highs and up 8.15% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 77.22%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 55.06
Recently traded at 56.53 with a 50 day moving average of 51.55

BARCHART MORNING CALL 8/19

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Wednesday, August 19th, 2015View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

September E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 -0.23%) are down -0.26% and European stocks are down -0.67% at a 1-1/4 month low as exporters fell on concern a slowdown in China and other developing economies threatens exporters' earnings. A drop in basic-resource companies is undercutting European stocks as well, with Glencore Plc down over 6% on concern that slower growth in China will undercut its demand for commodities. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan -1.61%, Hong Kong -1.31%, China +1.23%, Taiwan -1.90%, Australia +1.45%, Singapore -0.28%, South Korea -0.40%, India +0.36%. China's Shanghai Composite reversed losses from as much as 5% and recovered from a 2-week low and closed higher after several Chinese companies disclosed that government-backed funds had purchased their shares. Chinese Stocks had sold-off sharply Tuesday and early Wednesday on concern over reduced government support for equities after China Securities Finance Corp., the state agency appointed to support stock prices, said it will reduce its purchases of stocks as volatility declines. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index tumbled to a 3-week low on concern an economic slowdown in China will depress demand for Japanese exports.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.10%) is down -0.12%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.15% after Germany's Parliament overwhelmingly approved a third bailout package for Greece. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.04%.

Sep T-note prices (ZNU15 +0.05%) are up +2.5 ticks.
The Japan Jul trade balance unexpectedly widened to a -268.1 billion yen deficit, more than expectations of -53.0 billion yen and the biggest trade deficit in 5 months. Jul exports rose +7.6% y/y, more than expectations of +5.2% y/y, and Jul imports fell -3.2% y/y, less than expectations of -8.2% y/y.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Weekly MBA mortgage applications, (2) Jul CPI (expected +0.2% m/m and +0.2% y/y), (3) Jul CPI ex food & energy (expected +0.2% m/m and +1.8% y/y), and (4) Minutes of the Jul 28-29 FOMC meeting.
There are 6 of the S&P 500 companies that reports earnings today: Target (consensus $1.11), Hormel Foods (0.55), Lowe's (1.24), Staples (0.12), L Brands (0.68), NetApp (0.23).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today include: Sabre ($26.85), Summit Materials (25.75), PG&E (51.90), Medical Properties Trust (12.25), Sunrun (14.00), Planet Fitness (16.00), Aimmune Therapeutics (16.00), Dermira (21.50), Imprivata (15.00), Corium International (13.00).
Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: ITG - Industry Conference: Midwest Industrials Conference - Milwaukee on Wed.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Lowe's (LOW +0.75%) reported Q2 EPS of $1.20, less than consensus of $1.24.
Staples (SPLS -0.56%) reported Q2 EPS of 12 cents, right on consensus.
Hormel Foods (HRL -1.37%) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 56 cents, higher than consensus of 55 cents.
Intuit (INTU +0.15%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Deutsche Bank.
Google (GOOG -0.72%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Neutral' at Atlantic Equities.
International Game (IGT -0.87%) was initiated with a 'Sell' at Goldman Sachs.
Aflac (AFL +0.08%) was downgraded to 'Underperform' from 'Neutral' at BofA/Merrill Lynch.
C.H. Robinson (CHRW +0.09%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at Evercore ISI with a price target of $81.
Knight Transportation (KNX +0.29%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at Evercore ISI with a price target of $32.
Con-way (CNW -0.40%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at Evercore ISI with a price target of $44.
Seagate (STX -0.76%) said it will acquire Dot Hill Systems (HILL -4.78%) for $9.75 per share, or $694 million.
The WSJ reported that JPMorgan Chase (JPM +0.21%) is in advanced discussions with the SEC to settle investment bias charges for $150 million that it inappropriately guided clients to its own investment products.
DeVry (DV -2.03%) slid over 6% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 EPS of 57 cents, below consensus of 61 cents.
La-Z-Boy (LZB -0.11%) rose over 1% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 EPS of 27 cents, higher than consensus of 21 cents.
Analog Devices (ADI -2.69%) jumped over 7% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 EPS of 77 cents, better than consensus of 74 cents.

MARKET COMMENTS

Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 -0.23%) this morning are down -5.50 points. Tuesday's closes: S&P 500 -0.26%, Dow Jones -0.19%, Nasdaq -0.53%. The S&P 500 closed lower Tuesday on negative carry-over from the 6% plunge in China's Shanghai Composite Stock Index. Weakness in mining and basic-resource companies were a drag on the overall market as most commodity prices fell on Chinese demand concerns with copper at a new 6-year low. Another negative was the larger-than-expected decline in U.S. Jul building permits, a proxy for future building (-16.3% to 1.119 million vs. expectations of -8.0% to 1.225 million). Losses were limited after U.S. Jul housing starts rose +0.2% to a 7-3/4 year high of 1.206 million.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU15 +0.05%) this morning are up +2.5 ticks. Tuesday's closes: TYU5 -10.00, FVU5 -3.00. Reduced global deflation concerns undercut government bond prices as Sep T-notes fell along with British gilts and German bunds after UK Jul core CPI rose a more than expected +1.2% y/y, the fastest pace of increase in 5 months. Also, strength in the U.S. housing market undercut T-note prices after U.S. Jul housing starts rose to a 7-3/4 year high.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.10%) this morning is down -0.114 (-0.12%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0016 (+0.15%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.05 (-0.04%). Tuesday's closes: Dollar Index +0.234 (+0.24%), EUR/USD -0.00552 (-0.50%), USD/JPY +0.022 (+0.02%). The dollar index closed higher Tuesday as the increase in U.S. Jul housing starts to a 7-3/4 year high may prompt the Fed to raise interest rates as soon as next month. The dollar also found support on weakness in the commodity currencies of Australia, Canada and New Zealand after copper slumped to a 6-year low on Chinese economic concerns.
Sep crude oil (CLU15 -0.59%) this morning is down -22 cents (-0.52%) and Sep gasoline (RBU15 -1.20%) is down -0.0216 (-1.31%) at a fresh 1-week low. Tuesday's closes: CLU5 +0.56 (+1.34%), RBU5 -0.0178 (-1.08%). Sep gasoline Tuesday fell to a 1-week low and Sep crude traded lower early in the session as the dollar strengthened and after Algeria's Energy Minister sad OPEC can do little to halt the decline in crude prices and needs oil producers outside of OPEC to help in reducing global supplies. Crude oil recovered its losses, however, and closed higher on expectations for Wednesday's weekly EIA crude inventories to fall -750,000 bbl, the fourth straight decline.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR08/19/2015

US	0700 ET	Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous +0.1% with purchase sub-index -3.5% and refi sub-index +3.1%.
	0830 ET	Jul CPI expected +0.2% m/m and +0.2% y/y, Jun +0.3% m/m and +0.1% y/y. Jul CPI ex food & energy expected +0.2% m/m and +1.8% y/y, Jun +0.2% m/m and +1.8% y/y.
	1030 ET	EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
	1400 ET	Minutes of the Jul 28-29 FOMC meeting.
JPN	0030 ET	Japan Jun all-industry activity index expected +0.4% m/m, May -0.5% m/m.
	0100 ET	Revised Japan Jun leading index CI, previous 107.2. Revised Jun coincident index, previous 112.0.
	0130 ET	Japan Jul nationwide department store sales, Jun +0.4% y/y
	0200 ET	Revised Japan Jul machine tool orders, previous +1.6% y/y.
EUR	0500 ET	Eurozone Jun construction output, May +0.3% m/m and +0.3% y/y.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR08/19/2015

Company	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Target Corp	TGT US	Bef-mkt	Q2 2016 Earnings Release	Q2 2016	1.112
Hormel Foods Corp	HRL US	Bef-mkt	Q3 2015 Earnings Release	Q3 2015	0.547
Lowe's Cos Inc	LOW US	Bef-mkt	Q2 2016 Earnings Release	Q2 2016	1.239
Staples Inc	SPLS US	8:00	Q2 2016 Earnings Call	Q2 2016	0.117
Caterpillar Inc	CAT US	15:00	Caterpillar Inc. Teleconference with Analysts & Investors: Across the Table
L Brands Inc	LB US	Aft-mkt	Q2 2016 Earnings Release	Q2 2016	0.679
NetApp Inc	NTAP US	Aft-mkt	Q1 2016 Earnings Release	Q1 2016	0.233
Progressive Corp/The	PGR US		July 2015 Sales and Revenue Release	2015

Tuesday, August 18, 2015

Sucampo Pharmaceuticals - Barchart's Chart of the Day

Sucampo Pharmaceuticals (SCMP) is today's Barchart Chart of the Day. The pharmaceutical preparations company has a Trend Spotter buy signal , a Weighted Alpha of 228.60+ and gained 256.25% in the last year.

Today we are changing things up a bit to show you just how versatile the Barchart screening tools are. We will begin using the Russell 3000 as our new universe for the Chart of the Day. The Russell 3000 contains the largest 3000 stocks that are actively traded on the major exchanges. The stocks range from Apple (AAPL) with a Market Cap of $664 billion down to Medley Management with a Market Cap of $49 million.

We will use Barchart to sort the Russell 3000 stocks first for the stocks with the highest Weighted Alpha, then sort again for the stocks with technical buy signals of at least 80%. Next we will use the Flipchart feature to review the charts,

Today's Chart of the Day belongs to Sucampo Pharmaceuticals (SCMP). I found the pharmaceutical preparations stock by using the method stated above. Since the Trend Spotter signaled a buy on 6/22 the stock gained 46.86%.

Sucampo Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is an emerging pharmaceutical company focused on the discovery, development and commercialization of proprietary drugs based on prostones, a class of compounds derived from functional fatty acids that occur naturally in the human body. Sucampo is focused on developing prostones for the treatment of gastrointestinal, respiratory, vascular and central nervous system diseases and disorders.

96% Barchart technical buy signals
228.60+ Weighted Alpha
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
3 new highs and up 15.54% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 68.46%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 22.87
Recently traded at 25.51 with a 50 day moving average of 19.59

Fundamental factors:

Market Cap $1.15 billion
P/E 33.80
Revenue expected to grow 22.10% this year and another 21.30% next year
Earnings estimated to increase 87.50% this year, an additional 25.30% next year and continue to compound at an annual rate of 14.90% for the next 5 years
Wall Street analysts issued 1 strong buy, 1 buy and 2 hold recommendations on the stock

The 20-50 Day MACD Oscillator has been shown to be an effective technical trading strategy for this stock.