Saturday, March 27, 2010

Market was a roller coaster this week.

On Financial Tides I start every weekend by taking a reflective moment to clear my head of all the hype and use Barchart to see where the market really ended up. I use the Value Line Index as my proxy for the market and although it was up 3 days and down 2 we ended up .82% for the week. Let's review my other yard sticks.

Value Line Index -- Contains 1700 stock giving a much broader view that the S&P 500 or narrower Dow 30 -- Very slight gain.
  • Index up for the week .82%
  • Index closed above its 20, 30 and 50 day moving average
  • Buy signals from 10 of the 13 Barchart technical indicators for an overall buy rating of 80%

Barchart Market Momentum -- The percentage of stocks closing above their 50 day moving averages for various time frames -- Above 50% for all 3 time frames

  • 20 DMA -- 63.45% closed above -- 73.78% last week
  • 50 DMA -- 79.14% closed above -- 79.85% last week
  • 100 DMA -- 78.88% closed above -- 80.63% last week

The ratio of stocks hitting new highs to new lows for various time frames -- 1.0+ bullish, 1.0 neutral, less than .99 bearish -- Still bullish for all 3 time frames

  • 20 day ratio of new highs/new lows -- 631/548 = 1.15
  • 65 day ratio of new highs/new lows -- 431/147 = 2.93
  • 100 day ratio of new highs/new lows -- 396/96 = 4.13

Summary -- Although the week was a roller coaster reacting to all sorts of news and non-news we still ended up and ended solid. I see no reason to panic and will continue to cull stocks that have lost their momentum and feel safe to replace them and not accumulate cash.

Wall Street Survivor results: Month to date the S&P was up 4.48% and Vad the Skeptical Capitalists is in first palce with me a distant 7th.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who uses the tools on Barchart to find interesting stocks and evaluate the market on Financial Tides. Please send any comments to JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.

Disclosure: I do not own positions in the stocks discussed in my Financial Tides blogs.

Thursday, March 25, 2010

2 Great hotesl to choice from

For my Financial Tides portfolios I was using Barchart to screen for some new stocks and on the top of my screens came 2 hotels: Host Hotels & Resorts (HST) and Starwoods Hotels & Resorts (HOT). If I'm on Bing and trying to make a travel reservation I have to pick one or the other but how about when I'm investing? How do I choose?

Let's take them one at a time with my normal analysis:

Host Hotel's & Resorts (HST) had a price appreciation in the last 30 days of 27.32%. It hit new highs on 17 of the last 20 trading sessions and was 4 for 5 recently. On Barchart 13 of the 13 technical indicators signal buy for a 100% technical rating.

The analysts like it and have 5 buy and 9 hold recommendations published, Although they look for sales to decrease by .4% this year they look for a 6.0% increase next year. They predict nice earnings increases of 9.8% this year, 30.4% next year and 7.5% per year for the next 5 years.

Investor sentiment over on Motley Fool shows the CAPS members think the stock will out perform the market by a vote of 141 to 39 with the All Stars in agreement with a vote of 78 to 7.

Now how about Starwoods Hotels & Resorts (HOT) :

HOT had a price appreciation in the last 30 days of 19.06%, It hit new highs in 12 of the last 20 trading sessions and was 4 for 5 recently. On Barchart 12 of the 13 technical indicators signal a buy for a 96% technical rating.

The analysts like this one too with 10 buy recommendations and 9 holds published. They think sales will increase by .7% this year followed by a 6.2% increase next year. Although earnings are expected to be down this year by 36.6% a turn around is forecasted for next year of 58.5% and a 5 year compounded growth rate of 1.52% after that.

Investor sentiment is high with the Fools CAPS members thinking it will out perform the market by a vote of 226 to 114 with the All Star in similar agreement by a 65 to 21 vote.

HST is trading around 14.82 with a 50 day moving average of 12 and HOT is trading around 45.11 with a 50 day moving average of 39.

They both have:
  • Recent price momentum and similar scores on Barchart's technical indicators
  • Analysts have buy recommendations on both and predict increasing sales and earnings
  • Both have positive investor sentiment

An idea just hit me: I can only stay at one hotel at a time but there isn't any reason I can't split my stock purchases between the 2. Since most of us are trading of less than $9.95 per trade anyway I'll just split the amount I wanted to buy in two and buy them both.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.

Disclosure: I have no positions is the stocks mentioned above.

Wednesday, March 24, 2010

Titanium Metals Corp (TIE)

On Financial Tides I use Barchart to screen of interesting stocks for my readers to review. Today an S&P 500 stock that popped up was one I've followed before -- Titanium Metals Corp (TIE). I had a friend that bought this one several years ago, played it correctly and retired in his 40's.

Titanium Metals Corporation (TIE) is an integrated producer of titanium sponge, melted and mill products. They are the only integrated producer with major titanium production facilities in both the United States and Europe.

The stock has enjoyed a 42.15% price increase in the last 30 days and has hit new highs in 14 of the last 20 trading sessions. It's 4 for 5 recently. Barchart's 13 technical indicators all have a buy signal for a 100% Barchart buy rating.

The analysts have recognized that recently the recession hasn't been kind to TIE and they feel sales this year will be down this year by 3.3% and earnings down 10.5%. They look for the stock to recover as the recession subsides and predict sales increase of 20.6% next year coupled with a whopping 194.1% EPS turnaround. That increase EPS growth is expected to last for at least 5 years by 12.5% per year.

For a stock covered by so few Wall Street analyst this stock has extremely high investor sentiment with the Motley Fool CAPS members thinking the stock will out perform the market by a vote of 2442 to 85 and the All Stars are in agreement 867 to 10.

If the economy turns as predicted this stock has:
  • Recent price momentum
  • Wall Street predicting a turnaround of sales and earnings
  • Extremely high investor sentiment

The stock is around 16.56 today with a 50 day moving average of 13.

Please do your own due diligence to see if this metals play belongs in your portfolio. This is as much a commodities play and it is a stock play. You would be wise to protect yourself with stop losses.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who uses Barchart tools to find interesting stocks for Financial Tides readers. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com

Disclosure: I do not own positions in TIE at the time of publication

Open question for Timothy Sykes

Financial Tides readers want to know

Tim,
Confession is good for the soul. I'd like to ask you a question: Have you recently or ever committed the unethical practice of buying or shorting a stock in your personal account or the accounts of a family member before you gave a recommendation on that stock to your paid subscribers and newsletter readers? Inquiring minds want to know.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.

Disclosure: I never personally invest in the stocks I blog about.

E. I. du Pont de nemours & Co (DD)

On Financial Tides I started looking for a good S&P 500 stock to review. I use Barchart to screen for the S&P 500 stock with the best relative price strength and good old Du Pont (DD) rose up near the top of the list.

E.I. DuPont de Nemours (DD) is involved in science and technology in a range of disciplines including high-performance materials, specialty chemicals, pharmaceuticals and biotechnology. The company operates globally through strategic business units. Within the strategic business units, businesses manufacture and sell a wide range of products to many different markets, including the transportation, textile, construction, automotive, agricultural and hybrid seeds, nutrition and health, pharmaceuticals, packaging and electronics markets.

The stock hit new highs in of the 12 last 20 trading sessions and was 4 for 5 recently. The last 30 days has shown a 13.30% increase in price. Barchart's technical indicators have 13 out of 13 indicators signaling a buy signal for an overall 100% Barchart rating.

There is a very large Wall Street analysts following with 5 buy and 10 hold recommendations. The analysts consensus is of an increase in sales of 13.1% this year and 6.3% next year. They
predict that earnings increases of 15.3% this year and 14.5% next year are possible. They estimate that the EPS growth will be 8.5% a year for at least the next 5 years.

Over on Motley Fool the CAPS members think the stock will outperform the market by a vote of 1388 to 93 with the All Stars in agreement 409 to 15. The Wall Street journalist Fool follows are also favorable 17 to 1.

You might want to keep your powder dry with this one:
  • Recent and consistent price momentum
  • Large Wall Street following with predicted increases in sales and earnings
  • Very positive investor sentiment

The stock can be purchased around 38.50 and has a 50 day moving average at 34.

As always do your due diligence to see if this is a risk you'd like to assume.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who uses Barchart tools to find interesting stocks to review on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com

Disclosure: I hold no position in DD at the time of publication.

Tuesday, March 23, 2010

Feed your portfolio with Conagra - CAG

On Financial Tides I look for the stocks that are moving now on Barchart then use a disciplined screening process to decide what to buy. Today my screening has found Conagra Foods - CAG.

From their press release: "ConAgra Foods has transformed itself into an industry-leading, branded, and value-added food company. ConAgra Foods recently announced its realignment from three operating channels to two, with the previous ConAgra Foodservice merging with ConAgra Food Ingredients to form ConAgra Foods Commercial Products. These two primary business segments, Consumer Foods and Commercial Products, make us the right kind of food company to satisfy the needs of customers and consumers." That's their hype what are the facts?

The stock has hit new highs on 16 of the last 2o trading sessions and is 4 for 5 recently. Over the last 30 days the price is up 7.26%. 11 of 13 of the Barchart technical indicators signal buy for an 80% Barchart buy rating.

The stock has a large Wall Street following with 4 buy, 7 hold and no sell recommendations. Sales are estimated to be down 1.9% this year but are expected to be up 3.0% next year. Earnings look more promising and are estimated to be up 15.1% this year, 9.7% next year and maintain a 5 year compounded EPS growth of 11.7 in the future.

Investor sentiment over on Motley Fool is high with the CAPS members thinking the stock will out perform the market by a vote of 552 to 67 with the All Stars in agreement 193 to 11. The Wall Street columnists Fool follows are also positive 6 to 0.

What does CAG have going for it?:
  • Positive and consistent price momentum
  • A Wall Street following looking for increased sales and earnings
  • Positive investor sentiment

The stock can be purchased around 26.41 and has a 50 day moving average of 24.

Before you think about adding to your portfolio always do your own due diligence and see if it agrees with your investment parameters.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who uses Barchart tools and writes about financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.

Disclosure: I hold no position in CAG at the time of publication.

Don't be afraid of the Healthcare bill

I was just watching the President sign the health care bill and I was watching the stock market action in the margins. What is all the fear about? Why are people afraid of change?

Over the past few weeks as I listened to my favorite stations, congressmen and commentators I sensed that there was a lot of fear and anxiety in their voices. In spite of all their protests and the protests they were covering the bill passed anyway. I started to ask myself how could something pass that it seemed everyone was against and then it hit me. Maybe I was listening to the wrong people. I stepped back to see what was happening.

I don't think there is anyone, rich or poor, Democratic or Republican that really wants someone to die or stay sick because they haven't got the financial means to purchase the services or drugs that will save their life or ease their pain. Americans are just too carrying to let that happen. Things will be different and we shouldn't fear that. But how will I change my plan?

In the past change meant innovation and opportunity. Those who can up with the new solutions usually reaped great rewards. Why should the future be any different than the past?

I'm looking forward to change. I've got to realize that some of the industries and stocks I may presently own may not adapt and change with the times. Hasn't that been the way it has always been?

Change has been forced upon us and the status quo has been upset. So what? Will I run through the streets in panic and yell: " The sky is falling, the sky is falling!" My plan for the future will be the same one I've had in the past.

I'm going to make sure my stop losses are in place on the positions that I presently own and I'm going to keep looking for the companies and people that are the innovators and are positioning themselves to take advantage of the new opportunities that will come in the future.

Don't you think you should do the same?

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com

Monday, March 22, 2010

Penny Stock JimAlert -- Helios & Matheson NA -- HMNA

Financial Tides posts JimAlerts when we notice penny stocks that are having wild and unexplained price fluctuations and increased volume in short sales. These are stocks to avoid. Sometimes the price instability is caused by professional penny stock speculators or the many subscribers of penny stock newsletters who are all trying to jump on board a very thinly traded stock at the same time. These people are morons and don't always play by the rules so avoid JimAlert stocks.

Helios & Matheson NA -- HMNA has fluctuated from .69 to 4.05 in this month alone. As I'm writing this there were 81,523 shares traded against 61,564 shares shorted.

Timothy Sykes has shorted this stock on several occasions and his followers may be responsible for the increase in trading activity.

Jim Van Meerten is a retired Certified Internal Auditor, Supervisory Principal and Securities Compliance Officer who warns investors of the pitfalls of the stock market on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.

Disclosure : I do not hold a position in HMNA and neither should you.

Federal gets a buy signal -- FSS

Financial Tides observed one of the fastest rising S&P 400 stocks. Federal Signal Corporation - FSS is a manufacturer and worldwide supplier of safety, signaling and communications equipment, hazardous area lighting, fire rescue products, street sweeping and vacuum loader vehicles, parking control equipment, custom on-premise signage, carbide cutting tools, precision punches and related die components.

The stock has risen in 13 of the last 20 trading sessions and was 3 for 5 recently. In the last 30 days the stock has appreciated 30.45%. Barchart's 13 technical indicators give out 12 buy signals for a 96% buy rating.

Analysts have out 2 buy recommendations and are predicting an increase in sales of 4.0% this year and 8.2% nest year. Improving earnings are estimated to be increases of 52.8% this year, 34.5% next year and over 10% for the next 5 years.

Investor sentiment over on Motley Fool is high with CAPS members thinking the stock will out perform the market 46 to 12 and they find agreement from the All Stars by a vote of 16 to 1.

The stock has:
  1. Recent upward price momentum
  2. Analysts predicting increase in both sales and earnings
  3. A positive investor sentiment

The stock is trading around 9.26 with a 50 day moving average at 7.50.

Before you consider adding FSS to your portfolio please do your own due diligence.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who uses Barchart tools and writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com

Disclosure: No position in FSS at the time of publication

I'm a Pepper you're a Pepper -- DPS

Financial Tides found one of the fastest rising S&P 500 stocks -- Dr Pepper Snappel Group -- DPS. The company is one of the largest beverage companies in the Americas. They manufacture, market and distribute more than 50 brands of carbonated soft drinks, juices, ready to drink teas, mixers and other premium beverages across the United States, Canada, Mexico and the Caribbean.

Recently the stock has gotten a 96% buy rating on Barchart by having a buy signal on 12 of Barchart's 13 technical indicators. The stock has had a price appreciation on 13 of the last 20 trading sessions and was 3 for 5 recently. The stock has enjoyed a 28.59% price appreciation in the last 30 days.

Analysts like this stock too with 9 buy recommendations and no sell signals. They expect sales to increase 4.3% this year and 3.0% next year. Good growth in earnings per share are predicted to be 18.3% increase this year, 11.2% increase next year and a continued increase of 9% per year for at least 5 years.

Investor sentiment is high over on Motley Fool with the Fool CAPS members voting that the stock will out perform the market by a vote of 309 to 23 with the All Stars in agreement 134 to 11. The Wall Street columnists Fool follows like it 8 to 1.

The stock enjoys:
  • Recent and consistent price appreciation
  • Positive Wall Street sales and earnings estimates
  • Very positive investor sentiment

The stock is selling around 36.60 with a 50 day moving average of 30.

As always before adding any stock to your portfolio, please do your due diligence and make sure there is a proper place in your portfolio before you press the buy button.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who uses Barchart screening tools and writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leaved a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com

Disclosure: I hold no position in DPS at the time of publication

Sunday, March 21, 2010

March not bad so far

Each week-end on Financial Tides I like to leave all the hype, adverbs and adjectives behind and let the numbers on Barchart give the feel of what the market really did. I use the Value Line Index as my stock market proxy and it was down .11% for the week but still up 6.77% for the month to date. With 3 trading days left in the month it will be interesting to see where we close. Let's look at my 3 yard sticks.

Value Line Index -- The Index contains 1700 stocks which is much broader than the S&P 500 or the much narrower Dow 30 -- Still looks good
  • The Index closed Friday above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • The Barchart technical indicators still rate the stock as a 72% buy with 10 buy, 2 hold and only 1 sell signal

Barchart Market Momentum -- Contains approximately 6000 stocks -- The percentage of stocks trading above their daily moving averages for various time frames -- Still appears positive

  • 20 DMA -- 73.85% closed above this week -- 85.33% last week -- 74.42% last month
  • 50 DMA -- 79.73% closed above this week -- 82.66% last week -- 61.08% last month
  • 100 DMA -- 80.31% closed above this week -- 81.51% last week -- 67.11% last month

The ratio of stock hitting new highs to new lows for various time frames -- 1.00+ bullish, 1.00 neutral, less than .99 bearish - We are bullish for all 3 time frames

  • 20 day ratio of new highs/new lows -- 1155/445 = 2.60
  • 65 day ratio of new highs/ new lows -- 743/159 = 4.67
  • 100 day ratio of new highs/new lows -- 667/105 = 6.35

Summary -- Overall the week was neutral but the 3 yard sticks show the market still has strength. This week I will continue to cull stocks dropping below their 50 day moving averages and feel confident with the strategy of replacing them with stocks hitting new highs.

Wall Street Survivor results -- The participants on Top Stocks have a friendly competition on Wall Street Survivor. The S&P was up 3.96% month to date and 3 of the competitors were able to beat the bench mark, Vad the Skeptical Capitalist leads the way with a return of 8.40 month to date and I'm in 6th place with a loss of .71%. Three days of trading left for me to break even.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com

Disclosure: I do not hold positions in the stocks in my model portfolios.