Financial Tides -- A Stock Market Investing Newsletter by Jim Van Meerten: 2014-09-14

Friday, September 19, 2014

Stanley Black and Decker - Barchart's Chart of the Day

Stanley Black and Decker (SWK) is the Barchart Chart of the Day. The machinery and tool company has a Trend Spotter buy signal, a Weighted Alpha of 9.70+, gained 1.91% in the last year and paid a 2.25% dividend yield.

The Chart of the Day belongs to Stanley Black and Decker (SWK). I found the stock by sorting the All Time High list for the highest technical buy signals, then used the Flipchart feature to review the charts. Since the Trend Spotter signaled a buy on 7/25 the stock gained 2.73%.

SWK is a diversified global provider of tools and related accessories, mechanical access solutions; electronic security solutions, engineered fastening systems etc. The Company has three reportable segments: Construction & Do-It-Yourself, Industrial and Security. The Construction & DIY segment manufactures hand tools and sells its products to professional end users and consumers through retailers, including home centers, mass merchants, hardware stores, and retail lumber yards. Its Industrial segment offers various mechanics tools and storage systems to industrial customers through third party distributors and direct sales forces. The Security segment provides a range of mechanical and electronic security products and systems, as well as various security services to retailers; educational, financial, and healthcare institutions; and commercial, governmental, and industrial customers.

Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical buy signals
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
9 new highs and up 2.38% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 69.75%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 91.22
Recently traded at 93.25 with a 50 day moving average of 89.50

Fundamental factors:

Market Cap $14.55 billion
P/E 17.71
Dividend yield 2.25%
Revenue expected to grow 3.90% this year and anther 5.00% next year
Earnings estimated to increase 11.4% this year, an additional 14.10% next year and continue to increase at an annual rate of 9.55% for the next 5 years
Wall Street analysts issued 2 strong buy, 5 buy, 10 hold and 1 under perform recommendation on the stock

Watch the 50 and 100 day moving averages for signs to exit.

BARCHART MORNING CALL 9/19

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Friday, September 19th, 2014View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 +0.24%) this morning are up +0.32% at a record high and European stocks are up +0.42% at a 2-3/4 month high after 55% of Scottish voters rejected independence and voted to remain in the UK. Yahoo rose 1.4% in pre-market trading after the company sold shares of Alibaba for $68 as Alibaba Group raised $21.8 billion in the biggest ever U.S. initial public offering. Asian stocks closed mostly higher: Japan +1.58%, Hong Kong +0.57%, China +0.69%, Taiwan +0.04%, Australia +0.32%, Singapore +0.24%, South Korea +0.23%, India -0.08%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index soared to a 6-3/4 year high as exporters rallied after the yen tumbled to a fresh 6-year low against the dollar. Commodity prices are mixed. Oct crude oil (CLV14 -0.41%) is down -0.12%. Oct gasoline (RBV14 +0.02%) is up +0.29%. Dec gold (GCZ14 -0.29%) is down -0.36%. Dec copper (HGZ14 -0.06%) is up +0.08%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mixed as grain prices tumbled on the prospects for record global crops with Nov soybeans down -0.49% and Dec wheat down -0.87%, both at fresh 4-year lows. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.33%) is up +0.28%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.44%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.18% at a 6-year high. Dec T-note prices (ZNZ14 +0.09%) are down -0.5 of a tick at a 1-1/2 month low as a rally in stocks undercuts safe-haven demand for Treasuries.
German Aug PPI fell -0.1% m/m and -0.8% y/y, right on expectations. German producer prices have now fallen for 13 consecutive months on a year-over-year basis.
Japan Aug nationwide department store sales fell -0.3% y/y, the fifth consecutive month of year-over-year declines.
The Japan Jul all-industry activity index unexpectedly fell for a second month as it declined -0.2% m/m, weaker than expectations of unch m/m.
The Japan Jul leading index CI was revised down to 105.4 from the originally reported 106.5. The Jul coincident index was left unchanged at 109.9.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

The market is expecting today’s Aug leading indicators report to show another solid increase of +0.4%, adding to the sharp gain of +0.9% seen in July. There are no earnings reports today from the Russell 1000 companies. Equity conferences today include: 5th Annual Summit Internal Audit on Thu-Fri, GTC 7th CNS Partnering & Deal-Making on Thu-Fri, Imperial Capital Global Opportunities Conference on Thu, Tokyo Game Show 2014 on Fri, and Zelman & Associates Housing Summit on Fri.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Alibaba (BABA) was initiated with a 'Buy' at Cantor with a price target of $90.
Universal Health (UHS +0.80%) will replace Peabody (BTU -4.93%) in the S&P 500 as of today's close.
United Rentals (URI +0.90%) will replace Graham Holdings (GH)C in the S&P 500 as of today's close.
MGM Resorts (MGM +2.41%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Argus.
Deutsche Telekom (DTEGY +1.14%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Citigroup.
Concur (CNQR +0.31%) jumped 20% in after-hours trading after SAP acquired the company for $129 a share or $7.4 billion.
Home Depot (HD +0.95%) raised guidance on fiscal 2015 EPS view to $4.54 from $4.52, higher than consensus of $4.50.
Restoration Hardware (RH -0.49%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at CRT Capital with a price target of $90.
Molycorp (MCP -13.82%) rose over 6% in after-hours trading after Oaktree Capital reported a 9.1% passive stake in the company.
Red Hat (RHT -0.69%) reported Q2 EPS of 41 cents, better than consensus of 38 cents.
Oracle (ORCL +1.00%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 62 cents, weaker than consensus of 64 cents, and then Oracle CEO Larry Ellison stepped down from his post and was named executive chair of the board and Chief Technology Officer (CTO).

MARKET COMMENTS

Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 +0.24%) this morning are up +6.50 points (+0.32%) at a record high. The S&P 500 index on Thursday climbed to a new record high and closed higher: S&P 500 +0.49%, Dow Jones +0.64%, Nasdaq +0.72%. Bullish factors included (1) carry-over optimism from Wednesday that the Fed will be in no hurry to raise interest rates after it retained its “considerable time” interest rate guidance, and (2) the -36,000 decline in weekly initial unemployment claims to 280,000, a larger drop than expectations of -10,000 to 305,000. A bearish factor was the -14.4% decline in Aug housing starts to 956,000, much weaker than expectations of -5.2% to 1.037 million, and the -5.6% drop in Aug building permits to 998,000, weaker than expectations of -1.6% to 1.040 million.
Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ14 +0.09%) this morning are down -0.5 of a tick at a new 1-1/2 month low. Dec 10-year T-note futures prices on Thursday tumbled to a 1-1/2 month low and closed lower. Bearish factors included (1) carry-over weakness from Wednesday’s slide after the Fed raised its year-end 2015 fed funds rate median forecast to 1.375% from a Jun estimate of 1.125%, and (2) the larger-than-expected decline in weekly jobless claims to a 2-month low. Closes: TYZ4 -10.00, FVZ4 -6.75.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.33%) this morning is up +0.237 (+0.28%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0057 (-0.44%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.20 (+0.18%) at a fresh 6-year high. The dollar index on Thursday erased an early rally and closed little changed. Bullish factors included (1) carry-over support from Wednesday’s action by the FOMC to raised in its year-end 2015 fed funds rate median forecast to 1.375% from a Jun estimate of 1.125%, and (2) weakness in the yen as USD/JPY posted a 6-year high after BOJ Governor Kuroda said a stronger dollar “isn’t negative” for Japan’s economy. Closes: Dollar index -0.022 (-0.03%), EUR/USD +0.00573 (+0.45%), USD/JPY +0.316 (+0.29%).
Oct WTI crude oil (CLV14 -0.41%) this morning is down -11 cents (-0.12%) and Oct gasoline (RBV14 +0.02%) is up +0.0075 (+0.29%). Oct crude and gasoline prices on Thursday closed lower: CLV4 -1.35 (-1.43%), RBV4 -0.0082 (-0.32%). Bearish factors included (1) the stronger dollar, and (2) the larger-than-expected declines in U.S. Aug housing starts and building permits.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR09/19/2014

US	1000 ET	Aug leading indicators expected +0.4%, Jul +0.9%.
	1500 ET	USDA Aug Cattle on Feed.
JPN	0030 ET	Japan Jul all-industry activity index expected unch m/m, Jun -0.4% m/m.
	0100 ET	Revised Japan Jul leading index CI, previous 106.5. Revised Jul coincident index, previous 109.9.
	0130 ET	Japan Aug nationwide department store sales, Jul -2.5% y/y.
GER	0200 ET	German Aug PPI expected -0.1% m/m and -0.8% y/y, Jul -0.1% m/m and -0.8% y/y.
EUR	0400 ET	Eurozone Jul current account, Jun +20.8 billion euros (nsa).

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR09/19/2014

Company Name	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period
Seadrill Ltd	SDRL NO	8:00	Annual General Meeting	Y 2014
Golar LNG Ltd	GLNG US	9:20	Annual General Meeting	Y 2014
ConAgra Foods Inc	CAG US	9:30	Annual General Meeting	Y 2014
Towers Watson & Co	TW US	10:00	Analyst Day	Y 2014
Red Hat Inc	RHT US	11:00	Acquisition of FeedHenry by Red Hat, Inc Call
Twenty-First Century Fox Inc	FOXA US		U.S. Box Office Release of Movie The Maze Runner""

Thursday, September 18, 2014

BURLINGTON STORES - BARCHART'S CHART OF THE DAY

Burlington Stores (BURL) is the Barchart Chart of the Day. The retail department store stock has a Trend Spotter buy signal, a Weighted Alpha of 67.43+ and gained 61.76% in the last year.

The Chart of the Day belongs to Burlington Stores (BURL). I found the stock by sorting the All Time High list for the highest technical buy signals then used the Flipchart feature to review the charts. Since the Trend spotter signaled a buy on 7/17 the stock gained 29.10%.

BURL operates as an off-price apparel and home product retailer. It provides its customers with a selection of fashionable branded product in women's ready-to-wear apparel, menswear, youth apparel, baby products, footwear, accessories, home goods and coats. The Company operates within the United States and Puerto Rico.

100% Barchart technical buy signals
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
10 new highs and up 18.06% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 78.57%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 37.76
Recently traded at 40.46 with a 50 day moving average of 34.14

Fundamental factors:

Market Cap $3.00 billion
P/E 31.65
Revenue expected to grow 7.00% this year and another 7.00% next year
Earnings estimated to increase 69.50% this year, an additional 30.40% next year and continue to increase at an annual rate of 33.67% for the next 6 years
Wall Street analysts issued 3 strong buy, 6 buy and 1 hold recommendation on the stock.

The 50-100 day MACD oscillator has been the best technical indicator to signal entry and exit points on this stock.

5 Great Large Caps

I wanted to find which Large Cap stocks had the best technical buy signals and charts. I used Barchart to sort the stocks in the S&P 500 Large Cap index first for technical buy signals, then I used the Flipchart feature to gauge current momentum.

The stocks in today's list are Zoetis (ZTS), United States Steel (X), Whirlpool (WHR), Wells Fargo (WFC) and VF Corp (VFC):

Zoetis (ZTS)