Financial Tides -- A Stock Market Investing Newsletter by Jim Van Meerten: 2014-07-06

Friday, July 11, 2014

Federal Realty Investment Trust - Barchart's Chart of the Day

Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT) is the Barchart Chart of the Day. The retail REIT has a Trend Spotter buy signal, a Weighted Alpha of 20.60 and gained 19.58% last year while paying a 2.54% dividend .

The Chart of the Day belongs to Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT). I found the stock by sorting the All Time High list for new high frequency in the last month, then used the Flipchart feature to review the charts. Since the Trend Spotter signaled a buy on 6/27 the stock gained 1.41%.

FRT is an owner, operator & redeveloper of retail properties. The Trust's strategy is to acquire older, well-located properties in prime, densely populated & affluent areas & to enhance their operating performance through a program of renovation, expansion, reconfiguration & retenanting. The Trust's traditional focus has been on community & neighborhood shopping centers that are anchored by supermarkets, drug stores or high volume, value oriented retailers that provide consumer necessities.

The status of Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read.

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical buy signals
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
11 new highs and up 3.09% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 64.55%
Barchart computes a technical support leve at 121.21
Recently traded at 123.18 with a 50 day moving average of 119.95

Fundamental factors:

Market Cap $8.23 billion
P/E 26.18
Dividend yield 2.54%
Revenue expected to grow 5.20% this year and another 5.60% next year
Earnings estimated to increase 15.30% this year, an additional 9.70 next year and continue to increase about 1.00% annually for the next 5 years
Wall Street analysts issued 1 strong buy, 2 buy, 4 holds and a single sell recommendation on the stock

Treat this as a total return stock and exit if the total return drops to a negative 10%.

Thursday, July 10, 2014

Chemed - Barchart's Chart of the Day

Chemed (CHE) is the Barchart Chart of the Day. The hospice care service stock has a Trend Spotter buy signal, a Weighted Alpha of 34.98+ and gained 30.79% in the last year.

The Chart of the Day belongs to Chemed (CHE). I found the stock by sorting the All Time High list for new high frequency in the last month, then used the Flipchart feature to review the charts. Since the Trend Spotter signaled a buy on 5.27 the stock gained 8.33%.

CHE is the nation's largest provider of end-of-life hospice care services through its VITAS Healthcare Corporation subsidiary. Chemed also maintains a presence in the residential and commercial repair-and-maintenance industry through two subsidiaries. Roto-Rooter is North America's largest provider of plumbing and drain cleaning services. Service America Network Inc. provides major-appliance and heating/air-conditioning repair, maintenance, and replacement services.

100% Barchart technical buy signals
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20,50 and 100 day moving averages
11 new highs and up 6.35% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 76.05%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 93.71
Recently traded at 96.66 with a 50 day moving average of 89.52

Fundamental factors:

Market Cap $1.71 billion
P/E 17.61
Dividend yield .85%
Revenue expected to grow 2.80% this year and another 3.90% next year
Earnings estimated to increase 4.60% this year, an additional 6.50% next year and continue to increase at an annual rate of 15.00% or the next 5 years
Wall Street analysts issued 1 strong buy and 4 hold recommendations on the stock

Watch the 50 day moving average for signs of weakness and exit at the 100 day moving average

Hersha Hospitality Trust HT - Buy Signals

I recently added Hersah Hospitality Trust (HT) to the Barchart Van Meerten Speculative portfolio:

Barchart technical indicators:

88% Barchart technical buy signals
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
15 new highs and up 5.15% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 65.71%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 6.69
Recently traded at 6.77 with a 50 day moving average of 6.35

Thompson Reuters Buy Signals

I recently added Thompson Reuters (TRI) to the Barchart Van Meerten New High portfolio:

Barchart technical indicators:

96% Barchart technical buy signals
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
19 new highs and up 4.90% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 74.46%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 36.38
Recently traded at 36.82 with a 50 day moving average of 35.64

BARCHART MORNING CALL 7/10

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Thursday, July 10th, 2014View Older Reports

Everything you need to know about the markets in one free daily newsletter.

You will also receive a free subscription to the Barchart family of newsletters.

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

September E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 -0.84%) this morning are down -0.95% at a 1-week low and European stocks are down -1.85% at a 1-1/2 month low as European sovereign debt concerns resurfaced after Portuguese bonds tumbled as concern deepened over missed debt payments by a company linked to Banco Espirito Santo, Portugal's second-largest bank. European bank stocks plunged with Banco Espirito Santo down 11% and Espirito Santo Financial Group SA, which owns 25% of the lender, down 9% before trading was halted. The company suspended trading in its stocks and bonds, saying it is "currently assessing the financial impact of its exposure" to Espirito Santo International, which has missed payments on short-term obligations. While Portugal's central bank said Banco Espirito Santo SA is protected after its parent missed debt payments, Moody's Investors Service downgraded a company in the group citing a lack of transparency and links to other companies. Another negative for stocks was the slower-than-expected increase in China Jun exports, which fueled concern that global economic momentum may be slowing. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan -0.56%, Hong Kong +0.27%, China -0.27%, Taiwan +0.79%, Australia +0.22%, Singapore -0.18%, South Korea +0.12%, India -0.28%. Commodity prices are mixed. Aug crude oil (CLQ14 -0.42%) is down -0.53% and Aug gasoline (RBQ14 +0.06%) is down -0.09%, both at 1-month lows. Aug gold (GCQ14 +1.43%) is up +1.46% at a 3-1/2 month high as a slide in global stocks boosts the safe-haven demand for gold. Sep copper (HGU14 -0.28%) is down -0.28% at a 1-week low on Chinese demand concerns after China Jun exports rose less than expected. Agriculture and livestock prices are mixed with Aug live hog prices down -0.96% at a 2-week low on fund liquidation. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.16%) is up +0.14%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.18%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.33% at a 1-week low as the slide in stocks boosts the safe-haven demand for the yen. Sep T-note prices (ZNU14 +0.33%) are up +12 ticks at a 5-week high and the yield on the 10-year German bund dropped to a 14-month low of 1.171% on increased safe-haven demand amid signs of financial stress in Portugal.
The China Jun trade balance unexpectedly shrank to a +$31.56 billion surplus, narrower than expectations of a +$36.95 billion surplus. Jun exports rose +7.2% y/y, less than expectations of +10.4% y/y, and Jun imports climbed +5.5% y/y, less than expectations of +6.0% y/y.
St. Louis Fed President Bullard said that a rapid drop in unemployment will fuel inflation saying "I think we are going to overshoot here on inflation" as he predicts inflation of 2.4% at the end of next year, "well above" the Fed's 2% target. Bullard, who calls himself the "North Pole of inflation hawks," estimates full employment at about 6% and after U.S. Jun unemployment dropped to 6.1% he said the Fed will need to raise interest rates sooner than estimated.
Japan Jun consumer confidence rose +1.8 to 41.1, better than expectations of +0.7 to 40.0 and the best level in 6 months.
The Japan Jun PPI rose +0.2% m/m and +4.6% y/y, higher than expectations of +0.1% m/m and +4.5% y/y with the +4.6% y/y gain the fastest annual increase in 5-3/4 years.
The Japan May tertiary industry index rose +0.9% m/m, less than expectations of +1.7% m/m.
Japan May machine orders unexpectedly plunged -19.5% m/m, the biggest monthly decline since the data series began in 1987. On an annual basis, May machine orders fell -14.3% y/y, weaker than expectations of +10.1% y/y and the largest y/y drop in 4-1/2 years.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Today’s weekly initial unemployment claims report is expected to be unchanged at 315,000 following last week’s small increase of +2,000 to 315,000. Meanwhile, continuing claims are expected to show a -14,000 decline to 2.565 million, more than reversing last week’s increase of +11,000 to 2.579 million. The Treasury today will sell $13 billion of 30-year T-bonds, concluding this week’s $61 billion coupon package. There are two S&P 500 companies that report earnings today: Progressive Corp (consensus $0.49), and Family Dollar Stores (0.89). There are no equity conferences during the remainder of the week.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Family Dollar Stores (FDO -0.22%) reported Q3 EPS of 85 cents, below consensus of 89 cents.
UnitedHealth (UNH +0.99%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Jefferies.
Starwood (HOT +1.90%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at MLV & Co.
Allscripts (MDRX -0.39%) was upgraded to 'Strong Buy' from 'Buy' at ISI Group.
Alcoa (AA +5.66%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Equal Weight' at Morgan Stanley.
Billionare activist investor Carl Icahn reported a 9.98% stake in Seventy Seven Energy (SSE -2.30%) .
PrivateBancorp (PVTB -0.82%) and MB Financial (MBFI -0.49%) were both upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Sterne Agee.
Lumber Liquidators (LL -8.06%) slumped 16% in after-hours trading after it cut guidance on fiscal 2014 EPS view to $2.65-$3.00 from $3.25-$3.60, well below consensus of $3.34.
Republic Airways (RJET -1.87%) raised guidance on Q2 EPS view to 35 cents-40 cents from 30 cents-35 cents, above consensus of 34 cents.
Potbelly (PBPB -2.92%) sank 18% in after-hours trading after it lowered guidance on Q2 adjusted EPS to approximately 6 cents, only half of consensus of 12 cents, and then lowered guidance on fiscal 2014 adjusted EPS to 18 cents-21 cents, well below consensus of 34 cents.
Ruta Zandman reported a 7.6% stake in Vishay (VSH +0.26%) .

MARKET COMMENTS

Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 -0.84%) this morning are down -18.75 points (-0.95%) at a 1-week low. The S&P 500 index on Thursday closed higher. Supportive factors included (1) optimism about Q2 earnings as Alcoa rose over 3% after it kicked off Q2 earnings season by reporting better-than-expected Q2 profit and sales, and (2) the Jun 17-18 FOMC meeting minutes that stated that “monetary policy needed to continue to promote the favorable financial conditions required to support the economic expansion.” Closes: S&P 500 +0.46%, Dow Jones +0.47%, Nasdaq +0.75%.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU14 +0.33%) this morning are up +12 ticks at a 5-week high. Sep 10-year T-note futures prices on Wednesday erased early losses and closed higher after the Jun 17-18 FOMC meetings signaled the Fed was in no hurry to raise interest rates. T-notes had traded lower early on bearish factors that included (1) supply pressures as the Treasury auctions $61 billion in T-notes and T-bonds this week and (2) reduced safe-haven demand for T-notes after stocks rallied. Closes: TYU4 +7.50, FVU4 +3.50.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.16%) this morning is up +0.115 (+0.14%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0024 (-0.18%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.34 (-0.33%). The dollar index on Wednesday closed lower. Negative factors included (1) strength in the Chinese yuan which rose to a 3-month high against the dollar ahead of 2 days of U.S.-Chinese trade talks in Beijing, and (2) the Jun 17-18 FOMC meeting minutes that failed to provide an indication of when the Fed would start to raise interest rates. Closes: Dollar index -0.186 (-0.23%), EUR/USD +0.0029 (+0.22%). USD/JPY +0.071 (+0.07%).
Aug WTI crude oil (CLQ14 -0.42%) this morning is down -54 cents (-0.53%) and Aug gasoline (RBQ14 +0.06%) is down -0.0025 (-0.09%), both at 1-month lows. Aug crude and gasoline prices on Wednesday sold off to 1-month lows and closed lower. Bearish factors included (1) the +447,000 bbl increase in crude supplies at Cushing, OK, the delivery point of WTI futures, (2) the unexpected +579,000 bbl increase in weekly EIA gasoline stockpiles vs. expectations of a -500,000 bbl draw, and (3) the +0.9% increase in U.S. crude production in the week ended Jul 4 to 8.514 million bpd, a new 27-1/2 yr high. Closes: CLQ4 -1.11 (-1.07%) RBQ4 -0.0352 (-1.18%).

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR07/10/2014

US	0830 ET	Weekly initial unemployment claims expected unchanged at 315,000, previous +2,000 to 315,000. Weekly continuing claims expected -14,000 to 2.565 million, previous +11,000 to 2.579 million.
	0830 ET	USDA weekly Export Sales.
	1000 ET	May wholesale inventories expected +0.6% m/m, Apr +1.1% m/m. May wholesale sales expected +0.9%, Apr +1.3% m/m.
	1300 ET	Treasury auctions $13 billion 30-year T-bonds.
	1315 ET	Kansas City Fed President Esther George speaks on the economy and monetary policy to business and community leaders in Shawnee, OK.
	1630 ET	Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fisher speaks on financial reform at an event hosted by the NBER.
JPN	0100 ET	Japan Jun consumer confidence index expected +0.7 to 40.0, May 39.3.
EUR	0400 ET	ECB publishes monthly report for July.
UK	0700 ET	BOE announces interest rate decision and asset purchase target, expected no change to the 0.50% benchmark rate or to the 375 billion pound asset purchase target.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR07/10/2014

Company Name	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Family Dollar Stores Inc	FDO US	Bef-mkt	Q3 2014 Earnings Release	Q3 2014	0.889
Progressive Corp/The	PGR US	Bef-mkt	Q2 2014 Earnings Release	Q2 2014	0.485
L Brands Inc	LB US	7:30	June 2014 Sales and Revenue Call	2014
Foster Wheeler AG	FWLT US	8:00	Extraordinary General Meeting
Johnson & Johnson	JNJ US	8:00	FDA Adcomm, Safety of Laparoscopic Power Morcellator Devices
Family Dollar Stores Inc	FDO US	10:00	Q3 2014 Earnings Call	Q3 2014
Stratasys Ltd	SSYS US	10:00	Annual General Meeting	Y 2014
Chevron Corp	CVX US	17:00	Q2 2014 Sales and Revenue Release	Q2 2014
Gap Inc/The	GPS US		June 2014 Sales and Revenue Release	2014
L Brands Inc	LB US		June 2014 Sales and Revenue Release	2014
Costco Wholesale Corp	COST US		June 2014 Sales and Revenue Release	2014
Brookdale Senior Living Inc	BKD US		Special Meeting - M&A Vote

Wednesday, July 9, 2014

Argan is Barchart's Chart of the Day

Argan (AGX) is the Barchart Chart of the Day. The specialty construction stock has a Trend Spotter buy signal, a Weighted Alpha o 134.00+ and gained 148.25% in the last year.

The Chart of the Day belongs to Argan (AGX). I found the stock by sorting today's All Time High list for the stock that had gained the most in the last 12 month. Argan gained 148.25%. Since the Trend Spotter signaled a buy on 5/9 the stock gained 34.07%,

96% Barchart technical buy signals
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
8 new highs and up 12.92% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 78.12%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 35.81
Recently traded at 38.15 with a 50 day moving average of 31.70

Fundamental factors:

Market Cap $546.12 million
P/E 14.19
Revenue expected to grow 62.50% this year and another 21.70% next year
Earnings estimated to increase 13.80% next year
The one Wall Street analysts that follows the stock has a strength buy call

Interesting buy relies on government contracts. Watch the 50 day moving average and exit at the 100 day moving average.

The S&P 600 Small Cap YTD winners

Today I used Barchart to sort the S&P 600 Small Cap Index stocks to find who were the YTD price gainers. Some have some steam left, and some are beginning to run out of steam.
The list includes Pioneer Energy Services (PES), Albany Molecular Research (AMRI), Triquint Semiconductor (TQNT), GT Advanced Technologies (GTAT), Green Plains Renewable Energy (GPRE):

Pioneer Energy Services (PES) 124.47%

Barchart technical indicators:

96% Barcart technical buy signals
Trend Spotter buy signals
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
9 new highs and up 9.02% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 68.13%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 16.69
Recently traded at 17.88 with a 50 day moving average of 15.94

Albany Molecular Research (AMRI) 108.33%

Barchart technical indicators:

88% Barchart technical buy signals
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 2, 50 and 100 day moving averages
9 new highs and up 20.31% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 69.23%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 20.71
Recently traded at 21.14 with a 50 day moving average of 17.64

Triquint Semiconductor (TQNT) 89.81%

Barchart technical indicators:

40% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Below its 20 day moving average but above it's 50 and 100 day moving averages
5 new highs but down 1.67% for the month
Relative Strength Index 49.83%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 15.35
Recently traded at 15.81 with a 50 day moving average of 15.52

Advanced Technologies (GTAT) 87.61%

Barchart technical indicators:

40 % Barchart technical sell signal
Trend Spotter sell signal
Below ts 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
8 new highs but down .12% for the month
Relative Strength Index 40.10%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 15.16
Recently traded at 16.13 with a 50 day moving average of 16.60

Green Plain Renewable Energy (GPRE) 81.89%

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical buy signals
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
10 new highs and up 12.97% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 77.16%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 32.19
Recently traded at 35.37 with a 50 day moving average of 30.08

BARCHART MORNING CALL 7/9

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Wednesday, July 9th, 2014View Older Reports

Everything you need to know about the markets in one free daily newsletter.

You will also receive a free subscription to the Barchart family of newsletters.

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

September E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 +0.06%) this morning are unchanged and European stocks are up +0.14% ahead of the minutes of the Jun 17-18 FOMC meeting. A slide in Portuguese bank stocks is limiting gains in European stocks with Banco Espirito Santo SA, Portugal's second-biggest bank by market value, down nearly 8% and Espirito Santo Financial Group down 11% after payments were missed on some corporate notes. Banque Privee Espirito Santo, a unit of Espirito Santo Financial Group SA, said Tuesday that there was a delay in payments on some short-term debt securities issued by Espirito Santo International. Tuesday's fall in the S&P 500 to a 1-week low undercut Asian stocks that closed lower with Japan's Nikkei Stock Index and China's Shanghai Stock Index at 1-week lows: Japan -0.08%, Hong Kong -1.55%, China -1.46%, Taiwan -0.43%, Australia -1.06%, Singapore -0.24%, South Korea -0.41%, India -0.54%. Commodity prices are mixed. Aug crude oil (CLQ14 -0.11%) is down -0.11%. Aug gasoline (RBQ14 -0.50%) is down -0.49% at a 4-week low. Aug gold (GCQ14 +0.70%) is up +0.73%. Sep copper (HGU14 +0.34%) is up +0.45%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mixed with Dec corn down -0.49% at a contract low and Nov soybeans down -0.56% at a fresh 5-month low. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.03%) is down -0.01%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.02%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.08%. Sep T-note prices (ZNU14 -0.01%) are up +1 tick.
China Jun CPI rose +2.3% y/y, less than expectations of +2.4% y/y. Jun PPI fell -1.1% y/y, slightly more than expectations of -1.0% y/y, but still the slowest pace of decline in 2 years.
UK Jun Halifax house prices fell -0.6% m/m and rose +8.8% 3-months/year-over-year, weaker than expectations of -0.3% m/m and +8.9% 3-months/year-over-year.
The UK Jun BRC shop price index fell -1.8% y/y, a bigger slide than the -1.4% y/y drop in May and the fastest pace of decline since the data series began in 2006.
Japan Jun machine tool orders surged +34.2% y/y, a larger increase than May's +24.1% y/y gain.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

The FOMC today will release the minutes from its last meeting on June 17-18. The Treasury today will sell $21 billion of 10-year T-notes. There is one Russell 1000 company that reports earnings today: MSC Industrial (consensus $1.07). Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Europe 2020 a Driver to Global Growth? on Tue-Wed.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

American Express (AXP -0.87%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Guggenheim.
Schlumberger (SLB -0.58%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Neutral' at HSBC.
Louisiana-Pacific (LPX -2.65%) was downgraded to 'Sector Perform' from 'Outperform' at RBC Capital.
BNP Paribas (BNPQY -2.04%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Overweight' at JPMorgan Chase.
Deutsche Bank (DB -1.78%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Neutral' at JPMorgan Chase.
Potash (POT -0.72%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Overweight' at JPMorgan Chase.
Marvell (MRVL +0.76%) was downgraded to 'Underperform' from 'Perform' at Oppenheimer.
Broadcom (BRCM +0.05%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Perform' at Oppenheimer.
British Petroleum (BP -0.46%) was downgraded to 'Hold from 'Buy at Deutsche Bank.
Davidson Kempner Partners reported a 7.89% passive stake in Jason Industries (JASN -0.19%) .
Healthcare Services (HCSG -0.76%) reported Q2 EPS of 20 cents, weaker than consensus of 22 cents.
Bob Evans (BOBE -0.70%) reported Q4 EPS of 48 cents, better than consensus of 41 cents.
Alcoa (AA +0.75%) rose nearly 2% in pre-market trading after it reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 18 cents, well above consensus of 12 cents.
International Paper (IP -0.83%) announced its board has authorized an additional $1.5 billion share buyback program to supplement the $1.5 billion share repurchase program authorized in September 2013.

MARKET COMMENTS

Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 +0.06%) this morning are unch. The S&P 500 index on Tuesday fell to a 1-week low and closed lower. Bearish factors for stocks included (1) negative carry-over from a slide in European stocks to a 1-1/2 month low on European economic concerns after German May exports fell more than expected and after UK manufacturing unexpectedly contracted by the most in 16 months, and (2) valuation concerns with stocks in the S&P 500 trading at 16.5 times projected earnings, above the 5-yr average of 14.3. Closes: S&P 500 -0.70%, Dow Jones -0.69%, Nasdaq -1.19%.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU14 -0.01%) this morning are up +1 tick. Sep 10-year T-note futures prices on Tuesday closed higher. The main bullish factor Tuesday was the slide in stocks which prompted short-covering in Treasuries on increased safe-haven demand for U.S. government debt. Closes: TYU4 +11.50, FVU4 +5.75.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.03%) this morning is down -0.005 (-0.01%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0003 (-0.02%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.08 (+0.08%). The dollar index on Tuesday closed lower. Negative factors included (1) weakness in USD/JPY as the fall in the S&P 500 to a 1-week low boosted safe-haven demand for the yen, and (2) the drop in the 10-year T-note yield which reduces the dollar’s interest rate differentials. Strength in EUR/USD was limited on European economic concerns after German May exports fell more than expected. Closes: Dollar index -0.039 (-0.05%), EUR/USD +0.0007 (+0.05%). USD/JPY -0.29 (-0.28%).
Aug WTI crude oil (CLQ14 -0.11%) this morning is down -11 cents (-0.11%). Aug gasoline (RBQ14 -0.50%) is down -0.0146 (-0.49%) at a 4-week low. Aug crude and gasoline prices on Tuesday posted 3-week lows and closed lower. Bearish factors included (1) the slide in stocks, which reduces confidence in the economic outlook and energy demand, and (2) a lack of disruption to oil exports in Iraq, OPEC’s second-largest producer, as militants have so far failed to extend their insurgency to southern Iraq, where 75% of the country’s oil output is located. Losses were limited on expectations that weekly EIA inventory data on Wed will show crude stockpiles fell -2.5 mln bbl. Closes: CLQ4 -0.13 (-0.13%) RBQ4 -0.0181 (-0.61%).

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR07/09/2014

US	0700 ET	Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous -0.2% with purchase sub-index -0.7% and refi sub-index +0.1%.
	1030 ET	EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
	1300 ET	Treasury auctions $21 billion 10-year T-notes.
	1400 ET	Jun 17-18 FOMC meeting minutes.
UK	0300 ET	UK Jun Halifax house prices expected -0.3% m/m and +8.9% y/y 3-mo/year-over-year, May +3.9% m/m and +8.7% 3-mo/year-over-year.
	1901 ET	UK Jun RICS house price balance expected 55%, May 57%.
JPN	1950 ET	Japan Jun PPI expected +0.1% m/m and +4.5% y/y, May +0.3% m/m and +4.4% y/y.
	1950 ET	Japan May tertiary industry index expected +178% m/m, Apr -5.4% m/m.
	1950 ET	Japan May machine orders expected +0.7% m/m and +10.1% y/y, Apr -9.1% m/m and +17.6% y/y.
CHI	n/a	China Jun new yuan loans expected 955.0 billion yuan, May 870.8 billion yuan.
	n/a	China Jun trade balance expected +$36.95 billion, May +$35.92 billion. Jun exports expected +10.4% y/y, May +7.0% y/y. Jun imports expected +6.0% y/y, May -1.6% y/y.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR07/09/2014

Company Name	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
MSC Industrial Direct Co Inc	MSM US	Bef-mkt	Q3 2014 Earnings Release	Q3 2014	1.066
MSC Industrial Direct Co Inc	MSM US	8:30	Q3 2014 Earnings Call	Q3 2014
Salix Pharmaceuticals Ltd	SLXP US	10:00	Investor Day	Y 2014
Healthcare Trust of America Inc	HTA US		Annual General Meeting

Tuesday, July 8, 2014

Asbury Automotive Group - Barchart's Chart of the Day

Asbury Automotive Group (ABG) is the Barchart Chart of the Day. The huge automotive retailer has a Trend Spotter buy signal, a Weighted Alpha of 67.80+ and gained 65.62% over the past year.

The Chart of the Day belongs to Asbury Automotive Group (ABG). I found the stock by sorting the New All Time High list for Weighted Alpha then used the Flipchart function to review the charts. Since the Trend Spotter signaled a buy on 6/20 the stock gained 8.35%

Asbury Automotive Group is one of the largest automotive retailers in the United States. They sell, finance and service a diverse range of foreign and domestic automobile brands.

96% Barchart technical buy signals
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
11 new highs and up 8.61% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 77.79%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 70.22
Recently traded at 71.18 with a 50 day moving average of 64.68

Fundametal factors:

Market Cap $2.20 billion
P/E 18.70
Revenue expected to grow 8.30% this year and another 6.10% next year
Earnings estimated to increase by 16.70% this year, an additional 11.90% next year and continue to increase at an annual rate of 16.1% for the next 5 years
Wall Street analysts issued 4 strong buy, 3 buy, 2 hold, 1 under perform and a single sell recommendation on the stock

As the economy recovers auto sales should increase too. Use the 50 day moving average as a sign of weakness and exit at the 100 day moving average.

S&P 400 Mid Cap YTD Winners

Today I used Barchart to sort the S&P 400 Mid Cap Stock Index to see which stocks were the YTD winners. I then use the Flipchart feature to review the charts and noted that some of them seem to have run our of gas or in the case of Hillshire Brands made good acquisition targets.

The list includes Hillshire Brands (HSH) 87.65%, RF Micro Devices (RFMD) 83.14%, SunEdison (SUNE) 65.21%, Royal Gold (RGLD) 62.64%, and Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) 61.17%:

Hillshire Brands (HSH)

Barchart technical indicators:

80% Barchart technical buy signals
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20,050 and 100 day moving averages
8 new highs and up 6.50% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 88.48%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 62.60
Recently traded at 62.78 with a 50 day moving average of 50.30

RF Micro Devices (RFMD)

Barchart technical indicators:

16% Barchart technical buy signals
Trend Spotter buy signal
Below its 20 day moving averages
4 new highs but down 1.56% for the last month
Relative Strength Index 4753%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 9.54
Recently traded at 9.48 with a 50 day moving average of 9.31

SunEdison (SUNE)

Barchart technical indicators:

72% Barchart technical buy signals
Trend Spotter buy signal
Below its 20 day moving average
9 new highs and up 9.89% for the last month
Relative Strength Index 51.66%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 21.21
Recently traded at 21.28 with a 50 day moving average of 20.08

Royal Gold (RGLD)

Barchart technical indicators:

72% Barchart technical buy signals
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above ts 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
12 new highs and up 16.88% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 65.20%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 73.51
Recently traded at 74.66 with a 50 day moving average of 67.30

Skyworks Solutions (SWKS)

Barchart technical indicators:

32% Barchart technical buy signals
Trend Spotter buy signal
Below its 20 day moving averages
4 new highs and up 1.67% for the last month
Relative Strength Index 48.79%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 46.48
Recently traded at 43.32 with a 50 day moving average of 44.39

BARCHART MORNING CALL 7/8

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Tuesday, July 8th, 2014View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

September E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 -0.16%) this morning are down -0.14% and European stocks are down -0.40% on concern the economic recovery is slowing in Europe after German May exports fell more than expected and after UK manufacturing unexpectedly contracted by the most in 16 months. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan -0.42%, Hong Kong unchanged, China +0.19%, Taiwan +0.11%, Australia -0.14%, Singapore -0.25%, South Korea -0.01%, India -1.98%. Commodity prices are mixed. Aug crude oil (CLQ14 -0.12%) is down -0.15%. Aug gasoline (RBQ14 -0.38%) is down -0.45% at a 3-week low. Aug gold (GCQ14 +0.55%) is up +0.28%. Sep copper (HGU14 +0.17%) is up +0.20%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mostly higher. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.04%) is up +0.08%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.08%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.13%. Sep T-note prices (ZNU14 +0.15%) are up +6.5 ticks.
The German May trade balance widened to a surplus of +17.8 billion euros, more than expectations of +16.2 billion euros and the largest surplus in 6 months. May exports fell -1.1% m/m, more than expectations of -0.4% m/m, and May imports unexpectedly dropped -3.4% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.5% m/m and the biggest decline in 1-1/2 years.
The German May current account balance shrank to a surplus of +13.2 billion euros, less than expectations of +14.5 billion euros and the smallest surplus in 9 months.
UK May industrial production unexpectedly fell -0.7% m/m, weaker than expectations of a +0.3% m/m increase and the largest decline in 9 months. On an annual basis, May industrial production rose +2.3% y/y, less than expectations of +3.2% y/y.
UK May manufacturing production unexpectedly fell -1.3% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.4% and the largest decline in 16 months. On an annual basis May manufacturing production rose +3.7% y/y, less than expectations of +5.6% y/y.
The Japan Jun eco watchers survey outlook unexpectedly fell -0.5 to 53.3 when expectations were for a +0.7 point increase to 54.5. The Jun eco watchers survey current rose +2.6 to 47.7, a smaller increase than expectations of +3.8 to 48.9.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Today’s May consumer credit report is expected to show another large increase of +$20.0 billion following the April surge of +$26.847 billion. The Treasury today will sell $27 billion of 3-year T-notes. There are two of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: Alcoa (consensus $0.12), and Hertz Global Holdings (0.08). Equity conferences this week include: MicroStrategy Global User Conference on Tue, SEMICON West Conference on Tue, and Paris Europlace Financial Forum: Europe 2020 a Driver to Global Growth? on Tue-Wed.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

The Fresh Market (TFM -3.34%) was downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Neutral' at Goldman Sachs.
3M Company (MMM -0.34%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Argus.
Range Resources (RRC -2.05%) was upgraded to 'Hold' from 'Reduce' at KLR Group.
Covidien (COV -1.05%) and Medtronic (MDT -1.46%) were both added to short-term buy list at Deutsche Bank.
Groupon (GRPN -3.30%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at B. Riley.
Guess (GES -0.47%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Neutral' at Piper Jaffray with a price target of $32.
Rio Tinto (RIO -0.97%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Equal Weight' at Barclays.
CA Technologies (CA +0.10%) lowered guidance on fiscal 2015 EPS view to $2.42-$2.49 from $2.45-$2.52, below consensus of $2.50.
683 Capital reported an 18.9% stake in Body Central (BODY -3.75%) .
Full Moon reported a 15.4% passive stake in Cellular Biomedicine (CBMG +1.72%) .
Vertex (VRTX -1.98%) was downgraded to 'Perform' from 'Outperform' at Oppenheimer.
Novel Century Ventures reported a 15.46% passive stake in ExOne (XONE -10.76%) .

MARKET COMMENTS

Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 -0.16%) this morning are down -2.75 points (-0.14%). The S&P 500 index on Monday closed lower. Bearish factors for stocks included (1) negative carry-over from a slide in European stocks after German May industrial production unexpectedly fell -1.3% m/m, the sharpest drop in 2 years, and (2) interest rate concerns after Goldman Sachs moved up its forecast for the Fed to start raising interest rates to Q3-2015 from Q1-2016, saying the economy is “accelerating to an above-trend pace.” Closes: S&P 500 -0.39%, Dow Jones -0.26%, Nasdaq -0.31%.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU14 +0.15%) this morning are up +6.5 ticks. Sep 10-year T-note futures prices on Monday closed higher. Supportive factors included (1) concerns about the global economy after IMF Managing Director Lagarde hinted that the IMF may cut its global growth forecasts, saying investment is still weak, and (2) increased safe-haven demand for T-notes after stock prices faltered. Closes: TYU4 +5.00, FVU4 +0.25.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.04%) this morning is up +0.065 (+0.08%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0011 (-0.08%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.13 (-0.13%). The dollar index on Monday retreated from a 1-week high and closed lower as a drop in the 10-year T-note yield reduced the dollar’s interest rate differentials. The dollar earlier posted a 1-week high on speculation the Fed may raise interest rates sooner than the market expects after Goldman Sachs moved up its forecast for the Fed to start raising interest rates to Q3-2015 from Q1-2016. EUR/USD had slipped to a 2-week low after German May industrial production unexpectedly plunged by the most in 2 years. Closes: Dollar index -0.051 (-0.06%), EUR/USD +0.00108 (+0.08%). USD/JPY -0.215 (-0.21%).
Aug WTI crude oil (CLQ14 -0.12%) this morning is down -16 cents (-0.15%). Aug gasoline (RBQ14 -0.38%) is down -0.0134 (-0.45%) at a new 3-week low. Aug crude and gasoline prices on Monday fell to 3-week lows and closed lower. Bearish factors included (1) reduced gasoline demand after Hurricane Arthur swept up the East Coast over the Fourth of July holiday, a typically strong time of year for gasoline consumption, and (2) increased supplies when Libya’s Oil Minister said his country has 7.5 million bbl of oil ready for export after the Es Sider and Ras Lanuf oil export facilities were reopened when the government reached an agreement with rebels who had blockaded the ports for the past year. Closes: CLQ4 -0.24 (-0.23%) RBQ4 -0.0306 (-1.02%).

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR07/08/2014

US	1300 ET	Treasury auctions $27 billion 3-year T-notes.
	1300 ET	Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker speaks on the economic outlook to the Rotary Club of Charlotte.
	1345 ET	Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota speaks on monetary policy and the economy to the Minnesota Business Partnership.
	1500 ET	May consumer credit expected +$20.0 billion, Apr +$26.847 billion.
JPN	0100 ET	Japan Jun eco watchers survey outlook expected +0.7 to 54.5, May 53.8. Jun eco watchers survey current expected +3.8 to 48.9, May 45.1.
	0200 ET	Japan Jun bankruptcies, May -20.19% y/y.
GER	0200 ET	German May trade balance expected +16.2 billion euros, Apr +17.4 billion euros. May exports expected -0.4% m/m, Apr +2.9% m/m. May imports expected +0.5% m/m, Apr +0.2% m/m.
UK	0430 ET	UK May industrial production expected +0.3% m/m and +3.2% y/y, Apr +0.4% m/m and +3.0% y/y.
	0430 ET	UK May manufacturing production expected +0.4% m/m and +5.6% y/y, Apr +0.4% m/m and +4.4% y/y.
	1901 ET	UK Jun BRC shop price index, May -1.4% y/y.
CHI	2130 ET	China Jun CPI expected +2.4% y/y, May +2.5% y/y. Jun PPI expected -1.0% y/y, May -1.4% y/y.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR07/08/2014

Company Name	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
General Mills Inc	GIS US	10:00	Investor Day	Y 2014
Lam Research Corp	LRCX US	12:00	Analyst and Investor Meeting	Y 2014
ServiceNow Inc	NOW US	14:30	Annual General Meeting
Alcoa Inc	AA US	17:00	Q2 2014 Earnings Call	Q2 2014
Alcoa Inc	AA US	Aft-mkt	Q2 2014 Earnings Release	Q2 2014	0.124
Hertz Global Holdings Inc	HTZ US		Q1 2014 Earnings Release	Q1 2014	0.078