NASDAQ 100 Signal Caution

Today I sorted the NASDAQ 100 Index to find the 5 with the best Barchart technical indicators and charts and did not like what I saw.  I am giving a big signal of caution to all technical and momentum investors.  This is a declining market and I do not buy into declining markets.

Look at this hourly chart of the Value Line Index over the last 28 days and you can see the hourly declines:

On the close Friday 55.06% of all the stocks traded below their 20 day moving averages and there were 2856 declines to 977 advances - That's a 3 to 1 decline in the market.  Sit on the side line and be ready to jump in when the market reverses.

These are not buy recommendations but are just given for information.  They are the 5 with the highest Barchart technical indicators but NONE has a score of 100%.  The list includes Fastenal (FAST), Virgin Media (VMED), Akamai Technologies (AKAM), Expeditor's International of Washington (EXPD), and Oracle (ORCL):

Fastenal (FAST)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 80% Barchart technical buy signal
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 12 new highs and up 12.58% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 70.84%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 45.49
• Recently traded at 46.18 with a 50 day moving average of 43.07

Virgin Media (VMED)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 80% Barchart technical buy signal
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 6 new highs and up 6.96% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 63.25%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 36.05
• Recently traded at 36.41 with a 50 day moving average of 34.08

Akamai Technologies (AKAM)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 72% Barchart technical buy signal
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and100 day moving averages
• 9 new highs and up 12.60% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 58.15%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 39.95
• Recently traded at 40.40 with a 50 day moving average of 37.90

Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 64% Barchart technical buy signal
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 9 new highs and up 5.40% in the past month
• Relative Strength Index 58.74%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 38.53
• Recently traded at 39.03 with a 50 day moving average of 37.29

Oracle (ORCL)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 64% Barchart technical buy signal
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 6 new highs and up 3.84% in the past month
• Relative Strength Index 57.74%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 32.68
• Recently traded at 33.02 with a 50 day moving average of 31.55

Be patient and keep your powder dry!

I D Systems - IDSY - sell signal

Today I deleted I D Systems (IDSY) for the Barchart Van Meerten Speculative portfolio for negative price momentum:

Barchart technical indicators:

• 60% Barchart short term sell signal
• Trend Spotter sell signal
• Below its 20 and 50 day moving averages
• 13.58% off its 1 month high
• 14.57% off its 1 year high
• Relative Strength Index 41.67%

5 Small Cap Picks

Today I sorted the S & P 600 Small Cap Index to find the 5 with the best Barchart indicators and charts.  My list includes Surmodics (SRDX), Standard Motor Products (SMP), Olympic Steel (ZEUS), Watts Water Technologies (WTS) and Winnebago Industries (WGO)

Surmodics (SRDX)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 100% Barchart technical buy signal
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 12 new highs and up 15.56% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 74.42%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 21.33
• Recently traded at 22.20 with a 50 day moving average of 19.61

Standard Motor Products (SMP)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 100% Barchart technical buy signal
• Trend spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 18 new highs and up 13.87% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 80.72%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 21.21
• Recently traded at 22.09 with a 50 day moving average of 19.28

Olympic Steel (ZEUS)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 96% Barchart technical buy signals
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 6 new highs and up 12.96% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 67.07%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 20.57
• Recently traded at 21.25 with a 50 day moving average of 18.95

Watts Water Technologies (WTS)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 96% Barchart technical buy signals
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 10 new highs and up 5.44% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 66.16%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 41.82
• Recently traded at 42.46 with a 50 day moving average of 39.91

Winnebago Industries (WGO)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 96% Barchart technical buy signals
• Trend Sp[otter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 3 new highs and up 18.91% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 75.26%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 16.29
• Recently traded at 16.74 with a 50 day moving average of 13.84

5 Mid Cap Picks

Note:  Today I am not investing.  I'm sitting on the sidelines.  I may trim a few under performing stocks but I will not add to my positions.  The market as measured by the Value Line  Index is down.  Please observe this hourly trading chart of the Value Line Index over the past month to see the overall market trend:

That being said today I sorted the S & P 400 Mid Cap Index to find the 5 with the best Barchart technical indicators.  Although these are the best, please note that no stock in the index has a 100% score today - another reason for my caution and sitting on the sidelines.  The list today includes Worthington Industries (WOR), Domtar (UFS), Senior Housing Properties Trust (SNH), SEI Investments (SEIC) and Rackspace Hosting (RAX):

Worthington Industries (WOR)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 96% Barchart technical buy signal
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 9 new highs and up 9.56% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 64.46%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 24.69
• Recently traded at 25.24 with a 50 day moving average of 22.90

Domtar (UFS)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 96% Barchart technical buy signal
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 7 new highs and up 4.81% in the past month
• Relative Strength Index 67.84%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 82.91
• Recently traded at 23.62 with a 50 day moving average of 22.52

Senior Housing Properties Trust (SNH)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 96% Barchart technical buy signal
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 16 new highs and up 6.35% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 67.97%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 23.25
• Recently traded at 23.62 with a 50 day moving average of 22.52

SEI Investments (SEIC)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 88% Barchart technical buy signals
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 6 new highs and up 4.35% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 59.54%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 23.03
• Recently traded at 23.12 with a 50 day moving average of 22.11

Rackspace Hosting (RAX)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 96% Barchart technical buy signals
• Trend spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 4 new highs and up 6.34% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 66.83%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 69.20
• Recently traded at 72.86 with a 50 day moving average of 66.65

Barchart Moring Call 12/28

Barchart Morning Call

BC - Fri Dec 28, 7:00AM CST

Overnight Developments

• March E-mini S&Ps are trading mildly lower ahead of Monday's fiscal cliff deadline. European stocks today are down -0.86%. Asian stocks closed higher today with Japan up +0.70%, Hong Kong up +0.21%, and China up +1.45%. Commodity prices are unchanged on average. Feb crude oil is up +0.28%, Feb gasoline is down -0.40%, Feb gold is down -0.19%, March copper is up +0.04%, and agriculture prices are trading mostly higher. The dollar index is up +0.29% on increased safe-haven demand going into Monday's fiscal cliff deadline. EUR/USD is down -0.44% and USD/JPY is down -0.03%. March 10-year T-note prices are up 1.5 ticks.
• President Obama this afternoon will meet with Congressional leaders at the White House to see if there is any way to avert going over the fiscal cliff. The House will convene on Sunday night for a session that can be used for a vote on any last minute compromise. Washington is generally pessimistic about a deal getting done before Monday night's deadline when tax rates rise and automatic spending cuts begin.
• Iran today began 6-day military exercises around the Strait of Hormuz as pre-announced earlier this week.
• Italy today successfully sold 5.9 billion euros of 5-year and 10-year bonds. The 10-year bond carried a bid cover ratio of 1.47, higher than 1.18 seen at the last 10-year auction on Nov 29.
• Japan's Nov industrial production fell -1.7% m/m and -5.8% y/y, which was weaker than market expectations of -0.5% m/m and -4.6% y/y.
• Japan's Nov jobless rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2% in October and showed a slightly stronger labor market than market expectations for an unchanged rate at 4.2%.
• Japan's Nov national CPI rose to -0.2% y/y from -0.4% y/y in October, which was in line with market expectations. The Tokyo Dec CPI fell to -0.6% y/y from -0.5% y/y in October and was in line with market expectations. Both CPI reports illustrated that Japan continues to struggle with deflation.
  Market Comments
  • March E-mini S&Ps this morning are down -4.75 (-0.34%) on fiscal cliff concerns. The S&P 500 index on Thursday slumped to a 3-week low and closed lower after U.S. Dec consumer confidence fell more than expected and as concerns increased that the U.S. economy may go over the fiscal cliff. Stock prices however, rose from their worst levels in mid-afternoon after Speaker Boehner said that the House of Representatives will reconvene this Sunday in an attempt to resolve the budget standoff. Stocks had opened higher after European stocks rallied on favorable Italian and French confidence indexes and after U.S. weekly jobless claims fell by a more than expected -12,000 to 350,000. Closes: S&P 500 -0.12%, Dow Jones -0.14%, Nasdaq -0.16%.
  • March 10-year T-notes this morning are up +1.5 ticks on fiscal cliff concerns. March 10-year T-note prices on Thursday rallied to a 2-week high and closed higher after U.S. Dec consumer confidence fell more than expected to a 4-month low and on concern the lack of a resolution to U.S. budget talks may push the economy into recession. Closes: TYH3 +13.5, FVH3 +6.5.
  • The dollar index this morning is up +0.23 points (+0.29%) on increased safe-haven demand as the market is now discounting a better than 50-50 chance of going over the fiscal cliff. EUR/USD is down -0.0058 (-0.44%) and USD/JPY is down -0.03 (-0.03%). The dollar index on Thursday shook off early losses and closed little changed as the larger-than-expected decline in U.S. Dec consumer confidence offset an increase in safe-haven demand for the dollar after stocks tumbled on U.S. fiscal cliff concerns. The yen posted a 2-year low against the dollar on expectations that newly sworn in Japanese prime minister Abe will begin his campaign against the BOJ to force it to ease further, a bearish factor for the yen. Closes: Dollar index -0.01 (unch), EUR/USD -0.0046 (-0.03%), USD/JPY +0.161 (+0.19%).
  • Feb WTI crude oil prices this morning are up +0.25 (+0.28%) and Feb gasoline is down -0.0111 (-0.40%). Feb crude oil and gasoline prices on Thursday posted 2-month highs early but then fell back and closed little changed after U.S. Dec consumer confidence fell more than expected to a 4-month low and after stock prices sank when Senate Majority leader Reid said "nothing's happening" in budget talks in Washington. Closes: CLG3 -0.11 (-0.12%), RBG3 +0.0008 (+0.03%). Bullish factors included (1) the favorable Italian and French confidence indexes, (2) the larger-than-expected drop in weekly U.S. initial unemployment claims, and (3) the increase in U.S. Nov new home sales to their best level in 2-1/2 years. The market consensus for Friday's weekly DOE report is for a 1.7 mln bbl decline in crude oil inventories, a +700,000 bbl rise in gasoline inventories, a 1 mln bbl decline in distillate inventories, and a 0.3 point drop in the refinery utilization rate to 91.2%. The DOE is releasing the report two days later in than usual due to the Christmas holiday.
  • For the complete subscription version of this daily report (plus a 13-page big-picture weekly report), along with the earliest possible delivery in the morning, please visit http://www.barchart.com/register/crbfms_usmc.php
    Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (ranked by market cap): None.
    Global Financial Calendar
    

    Friday 12/28/12
    United States
    0830 ET	USDA weekly Export Sales.
    0945 ET	Dec Chicago purchasing managers index expected +0.6 to 51.0, Nov +0.5 to 50.4.
    1000 ET	Nov pending home sales expected +1.0% m/m and +10.5% y/y, Oct +5.2% m/m and +18.0% y/y.
    1100 ET	DOE Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
    1500 ET	USDA quarterly Hogs & Pigs report.

    Barchart.com provides Financial Quotes, Charts and Technical Analysis for Stock and Commodity Traders.

Domino's Pizza - DPZ - Barchart Chart of the Day

Barchart.com's Chart of the Day - Domino's Pizza (DPZ)

Barchart Research Team - BC - Thu Dec 27, 5:53PM CST

The "Chart of the Day" is Domino's Pizza (DPZ), which showed up on Thursday's Barchart "All-Time High" list. Domino's posted an all-time Thursday at $43.74 and closed up +1.10%. TrendSpotter has been long since Dec 11 at $42.40. In recent news on the stock, Oppenheimer yesterday maintained an "Outperform" rating on Domino's Pizza and raised its target price to $50 from $44, saying the company could benefit from easing U.S. comps, accelerating international profits, and higher-than-expected share repurchases. Domino's Pizza, with a market cap of $2.4 billion, is is the recognized world leader in pizza delivery. Through its primarily franchised system, Domino's operates franchised and company-owned stores in the U.S. and in more than 50 countries.


How we found the Chart of the Day:
We found the "Chart of the Day" by scanning the Barchart "All-Time High" list. In order to get to that list, we first clicked on the Stocks menu item on the Barchart home page, then on the "All-Time Highs" menu item on the left menu bar. We then sorted the list by percentage gainers by clicking on the "Percent" column title. A stock that has posted a new all-time high is typically showing strong upside momentum.
The status of Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.

• TrendSpotter: Buy
• Short-Term Indicators: 80% Buy
• Medium-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
• Long-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
• Overall Average 96% Buy

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Chart of the Day Archive
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5 Large Cap Break-Outs

Today I sorted the S & P 500 Large Cap Index to see which stocks have great Barchart technical indicators and charts.  My list includes Praxair (PX), Meadwestvaco (MWV), Monsanto (MON),  Ford (F), and United States Steel (X):

Praxair (PX)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 100% Barchart technical buy signals
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 10 new highs and up 3.47% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 62.42%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 106.63
• Recently traded at 110.39 with a 50 day moving average of 106.96

Meadwestvaco (MWV)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 100% Barchart technical buy signal
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 10 new highs and up 7.30% in the last month
• Relative strength Index 65.93%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 31.01
• Recently traded at 31.73 with a 50 day moving average of 30.19

Monsanto (MON)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 100% Barchart technical buy signals
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 4 new highs and up 3.25 \% in the past month
• Relative Strength Index 67.98%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 90.04
• Recently traded at 94.22 with a 50 day moving average of 89.04

Ford (F)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 100% Barchart technical buy signal
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 8 new highs and up 13.59% in the past month
• Relative Strength Index 78.22%
• Barchart computes  a technical support level at 11.43
• Recently traded at 12.61 with a 50 day moving average of 11.05

United States Steel (X)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 96% Barhart technical buy signals
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 10 new highs and up 12.63% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 66.96^
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 23.48
• Recently traded at 24.369 with a 50 day moving average of 22.60