BARCHART MORNING CALL 8/24

BARCHART MORNING CALL 

Monday, August 24th, 2015View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

September E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 -2.88%) are down -2.28% at a 10-month low and European stocks are down -2.86% at a 7-1/4 month low as global stock markets extend last week's plunge. In a broad sell-off that encompasses all industries, technology stocks are weaker with Apple and Netflix down over 4% in pre-market trading, and energy producers and oil service companies are lower with ConocoPhillips and Schlumberger down more than 3% as crude oil (CLV15 -3.14%) is down -3.61% at a 6-1/2 year low. Asian stocks closed sharply lower: Japan -4.61%, Hong Kong -5.17%, China -8.49%, Taiwan -4.84%, Australia -4.09%, Singapore -4.30%, South Korea -2.47%, India -5.94%. China's Shanghai Composite sank to a 6-1/4 month low even after China said it will allow pension funds to buy stocks for the first time as a lack of confidence undermines government attempts to prop up the equity market. More than 800 stocks fell by the daily 10% limit on the Shanghai Composite. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index slid to a 6-month low and emerging market stocks declined as well, led lower by losses in basic-resource producers as the price of copper (HGU15 -3.23%) dropped -2.37% to a new 6-year low.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.95%) is down -0.97% at a 2-month low as the plunge in global stocks bolsters the probability the Fed will delay an interest rate increase. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.93% at a 6-1/2 month high. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -1.61% at a 3-month low as safe haven demand benefits the yen. Emerging market currencies sold off against the dollar with the Russian ruble at a 6-1/2 month low and the Malaysian ringgit at a 17-year low

Sep T-note prices (ZNU15 +0.47%) are up +11.5 ticks at a 3-3/4 month high as the 10-year T-note yield fell below 2.00% as the rout in stocks bolsters the safe-haven of government debt.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Jul Chicago Fed national activity index (expected +0.12 to 0.20, Jun +0.15 to 0.08), and (2) a speech by Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart to the 2015 Public Pension Funding Forum.
There is 1 of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: Premier (consensus $0.36).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today include: none.
Equity conferences this week include: 9th Annual South East Asia Australia Offshore & Onshore Conference on Tue-Wed, 9th Annual Mining the Territory Conference on Wed, Pareto Healthcare Conference on Fri.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Marathon Oil (MRO -2.48%) , Noble Energy (NBL -0.82%) , and Whiting Petroleum (WLL -7.04%) were all downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at BofA/Merrill Lynch.
Bristol-Myers (BMY -2.62%) was upgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Underweight' at Piper Jaffray.
Valero (VLO -9.09%) was downgraded to 'Underperform' from 'Neutral' at BofA/Merrill Lynch.
Chevron (CVX -4.39%) was upgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Underperform' at BofA/Merrill Lynch.
Randgold (GOLD -1.37%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Sector Perform' at RBC Capital.
Grainger (GWW -1.87%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Outperform' at Baird.
AutoZone (AZO -5.06%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at BofA/Merrill Lynch.
Airgas (ARG -3.54%) and Fastenal (FAST -0.51%) were both downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Outperform' at Baird.
Bank of America (BAC -3.71%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at Keefe Bruyette.
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF -3.74%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Neutral" at Piper Jaffray ahead of earnings.
Nike (NKE -4.84%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at Telsey Advisory.
DreamWorks (DWA +5.01%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at B. Riley.
General Motors (GM -4.02%) is recalling 59,474 Chevrolet Cobalt vehicles manufactured January 4, 2010, to June 23, 2010. The affected vehicles may be equipped with an improperly routed Side-Impact Sensor wiring harness in the driver side front door
Francisco Partners reported a 7.2% stake in Mitel (MITL -3.63%) .
Emperey reported a 9.5% passive stake in BG Medicine (BGMD -3.41%) .

MARKET COMMENTS

Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 -2.88%) this morning are down -45.00 points (-2.28%) at a 10-month low. Friday's closes: S&P 500 -3.19%, Dow Jones -3.12%, Nasdaq -4.28%. The S&P 500 on Friday sold off to a 6-1/2 month low and settled sharply lower as the China Aug Caixin manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell -0.7 to a 6-1/2 year low of 47.1. In addition, the U.S. Aug Markit manufacturing PMI fell by -0.9 points to a 1-3/4 year low of 52.9.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU15 +0.47%) this morning are up +11.5 ticks at a 3-3/4 month high. Friday's closes: TYU5 +11.00, FVU5 +8.75. Sep T-notes Friday climbed to a 3-3/4 month high and closed higher on increased safe-haven demand with the plunge in global equity markets and on speculation the Fed may delay raising interest rates on global growth concerns after a gauge of Chinese manufacturing activity contracted at its steepest pace in 6-1/3 years. T-notes also received a boost as crude oil sank to a new 6-1/3 year low and pushed the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation rate down to a 7-1/4 month low.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.95%) this morning is down -0.921 (-0.97%) at a 2-month low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0106 (+0.93%) at a 6-1/2 month high. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -1.97 (-1.61%) at a 3-month low. Friday's closes: Dollar Index -0.972 (-1.01%), EUR/USD +0.01439 (+1.28%), USD/JPY -1.363(-1.10%). The dollar index Friday fell to a 1-1/2 month low and closed lower on (1) the plunge in world equity markets that prompted an increase in safe-haven demand for the yen and sent USD/JPY down to a 1-1/4 month low, and (2) strength in EUR/USD which rose to a 2-month high after Eurozone Aug Markit manufacturing PMI expanded more than expected.
Oct crude oil (CLV15 -3.14%) this morning isdowm -$1.46 a barrel (-3.61%) at a 6-1/2 year low and Oct gasoline (RBV15 -2.62%) is down -0.0418 (-3.02%) at a contract low. Friday's closes: CLV5 -0.87 (-2.11%), RBV5 -0.0085 (-0.61%). Oct crude and gasoline sold off sharply Friday with Oct crude at a 6-1/3 year low and Oct gasoline at a 6-1/2 month low. Crude oil prices were hurt by the plunge in global stock prices and concern the U.S. oil supply glut will persist with U.S. crude supplies nearly 100 million bbl above their 5-year seasonal average.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR08/24/2015

US	0830 ET	Jul Chicago Fed national activity index expected +0.12 to 0.20, Jun +0.15 to 0.08.
	1100 ET	USDA weekly grain export inspections.
	1555 ET	Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart speaks to the 2015 Public Pension Funding Forum.
	1600 ET	USDA weekly crop progress.
JPN	0100 ET	Revised Japan Jun leading index CI, previous 107.2. Revised Jun coincident index, previous 112.0.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR08/24/2015

Company	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Premier Inc	PINC US	17:00	Q4 2015 Earnings Call	Q4 2015
Premier Inc	PINC US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	0.361

BARCHART MORNING ALL 3/5

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Thursday, March 5th, 2015View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

March E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 +0.16%) this morning are up +0.12% and European stocks are up +0.79% at a 6-3/4 year high ahead of today's ECB meeting where ECB President Draghi will announce details of the ECB's bond-buying program. Increased M&A activity is also supportive for stocks after Abbvie agreed to buy Pharmacyclics for $21 billion. As expected, the BOE kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.50% and left its asset purchase target at 375 billion pounds. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +0.26%, Hong Kong -1.11%, China -0.98%, Taiwan -0.28%, Australia +0.04%, Singapore -0.59%, South Korea -0.06%, India +0.23%. Chinese stocks fell after Premier Li Keqiang lowered China's 2015 GDP target to 7.0%, the lowest in more than 15 years, from 7.5% in 2014, and said "the difficulties we are to encounter in the year ahead may be even more formidable than those of last year." Commodity prices are mixed. Apr crude oil (CLJ15 +0.80%) is up +1.01% at a 1-1/2 week high after Libya's National Oil Corp. declared force majeure on oil supplies from 11 Libyan oil fields due to attacks on oil infrastructure from Islamic militants. Apr gasoline (RBJ15 -0.22%) is down -0.24%. Apr gold (GCJ15 +0.02%) is down -0.11%. May copper (HGK15 +0.15%) is up +0.17%. Agriculture prices are weaker. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.22%) is up +0.25% at an 11-1/3 year high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.23% at an 11-1/2 year low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.39%. Jun T-note prices (ZNM15 -0.05%) are down -2 ticks.
German Jan factory orders fell -3.9% m/m, weaker than expectations of -1.0% m/m and the biggest monthly decline in 5 months. On an annual basis, Jan factory orders unexpectedly fell -0.1% y/y, weaker than expectations of +2.6% y/y.
UK Feb Halifax house prices fell -0.3% m/m and rose +8.3% y/y, weaker than expectations of -0.2% m/m and +8.5% y/y.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Today’s Feb ADP employment report is expected to show a respectable increase of +220,000, stronger than the +213,000 increase seen in January. Today’s Feb ISM non-manufacturing index is expected to show a small -0.2 decline to 56.5, thus reversing January’s small +0.2 point increase to 56.7. The Fed today will release its Beige Book report ahead of the March 17-18 FOMC meeting. There are 3 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today: H&R Block (consensus $-0.17), Brown-Forman (0.86), PetSmart (1.37).
Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Cowen & Co. Health Care Conference on Mon-Wed, Citigroup Global Property CEO Conference on Mon-Wed, Raymond James & Associates Institutional Investors Conference on Mon-Wed, Morgan Stanley Technology Media & Telecom Conference on Mon-Thu, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Consumer & Retail Conference on Tue-Wed, J.P. Morgan Aviation, Transportation and Industrials Conference on Tue-Thu, Mitsubishi UFJ Securities 3rd Annual Seattle Consumer Conference on Wed, Morgan Stanley European MedTech & Services Conference on Wed, Simmons Energy Conference on Wed, UBS Natural Gas, Electric Power and MLP Conference on Wed, UBS Utilities and Natural Gas Conference on Wed, UBS Global Consumer Conference on Wed-Thu, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Refining Conference on Thu, Barclays Investment Grade Energy & Pipeline Conference on Thu, Pacific Crest Emerging Technology Summit on Thu, Morgan Stanley MLP/Diversified Natural Gas, Utilities Clean Tech Conference on Thu.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Costo Wholesale (COST -0.14%) reported Q2 EPS of $1.25, more than consensus of $1.18.
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF -15.51%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Nomura.
Exxon Mobil (XOM -0.50%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Evercore ISI.
McDonald's (MCD +0.51%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Overweight' at Piper Jaffray.
Joy Global (JOY -1.95%) reported Q1 EPS of 25 cents, less than consensus of 36 cents, and then lowered guidance on fiscal 2015 adjusted EPS view to $2.50-$3.00 from $3.10-$3.50, well below consensus of $3.20.
Sprouts Farmers Markets (SFM -1.22%) filed to sell 15.85 million shares of common stock for holders.
Darling (DAR -0.23%) rose over 4% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 EPS of 42 cents, double consensus of 21 cents.
Pharmacyclics (PCYC +6.33%) jumped over 7% in pre-market trading after AbbVie agreed to buy the company fpr $21 billion.
Alon USA Partners (ALDW -0.06%) reported Q4 EPS of 67 cents, better than consensus of 60 cents.
Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY +6.06%) announced that the FDA has approved its Opdivo injection, for intravenous use, for the treatment of patients with metastatic squamous non-small cell lung cancer.
Coca-Cola Bottling (COKE -2.00%) reported Q4 EPS of 32 cents, higher than one estimate of 13 cents.
H&R Block (HRB -0.86%) reported a Q3 adjusted EPS loss of -13 cents, a smaller loss than consensus of -17 cents.
Roundy's (RNDY -0.25%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 7 cents, more than twice consensus of 3 cents.

MARKET COMMENTS

Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 +0.16%) this morning are up +2.50 points (+0.12%). The S&P 500 index on Wednesday tumbled to a 1-1/2 week low and closed lower: S&P 500 -0.44%, Dow Jones -0.58%, Nasdaq -0.30%. Bearish factors included (1) the +212,000 increase in Feb ADP employment, less than expectations of +220,000, (2) weakness in industrial companies led by a -5% plunge in Alcoa, and (3) a slide in transportation stocks after railroad companies sold off for a second day. Stocks recovered from their worst levels after the Feb ISM non-manufacturing index unexpectedly rose +0.2 to 56.9, stronger than expectations of -0.2 to 56.5.
Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM15 -0.05%) this morning are down -2 ticks. Jun 10-year T-note futures prices on Wednesday recovered from a 1-week low and closed higher. Closes: TYM5 +3.00, FVM5 +3.50. Bullish factors included (1) the smaller-than-expected increase in Feb ADP employment, and (2) the fall in the S&P 500 to a 1-1/2 week low, which boosted the safe-haven demand for T-notes.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.22%) this morning is up +0.238 (+0.25%) at a fresh 11-1/3 year high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0025 (-0.23%) at an 11-1/2 year low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.47 (+0.39%). The dollar index on Wednesday soared to an 11-1/3 year high and closed higher: Dollar index +0.582 (+0.61%), EUR/USD -0.00975 (-0.87%), USD/JPY -0.063 (-0.05%). Bullish factors included (1) the stronger-than-expected Feb ISM non-manufacturing index, which should keep the Fed on track to raise interest rates later this year, and (2) weakness in EUR/USD/ which fell to a 11-1/3 year low after the Eurozone Feb Markit composite PMI was revised lower.
Apr WTI crude oil (CLJ15 +0.80%) this morning is up +52 cents (+1.01%) at a 1-1/2 week high and Apr gasoline (RBJ15 -0.22%) is down -0.0046 (-0.24%). Apr crude and Apr gasoline prices on Wednesday settled mixed: CLJ5 +1.01 (+2.00%), RBJ5 -0.0274 (-1.41%). Bearish factors included (1) a rally in the dollar index to an 11-1/3 year high, (2) the +10.3 million bbl increase in weekly EIA crude inventories to 444.4 million bbl, far higher than expectations of +4.0 million bbl, and (3) the +0.4% increase in U.S. crude production in the week ended Feb 27 to 9.324 million bpd, the most in over three decades. Crude oil recovered its losses and moved higher after the Fed Beige Book said the U.S. economy continued to expand from Jan through mid Feb.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR03/05/2015

US	0830 ET	Weekly initial unemployment claims expected -18,000 to 295,000, previous +31,000 to 313,000. Weekly continuing claims expected -6,000 to 2.395 million, previous 21,000 to 2.401 million.
	0830 ET	Revised Q4 non-farm productivity expected -2.3%, previous -1.8%. Revised Q4 unit labor costs expected +3.3%, previous +2.7%.
	0830 ET	USDA weekly Export Sales.
	1000 ET	Jan factory orders expected +0.2%, Dec -3.4%.
	1000 ET	San Francisco Fed President John Williams speaks on the economic outlook at the CFA Society Hawaii Economic Forecast Dinner.
	1100 ET	Treasury announces amount of 3-year T-notes (previous $24 billion), 10-year T-notes (previous $24 billion) and 30-year T-bonds (previous $16 billion) to be auctioned Mar 10-12.
	1630 ET	Fed releases results of its latest bank stress tests.
GER	0200 ET	German Jan factory orders expected -1.0% m/m and +2.6% y/y, Dec +4.2% m/m and +3.4% y/y.
UK	0400 ET	UK Feb new car registrations, Jan +6.7% y/y.
	0700 ET	BOE announces interest rate decision and asset purchase target, expected no change to the 0.50% benchmark rate or to the 375 billion pound asset purchase target.
EUR	0745 ET	ECB announces interest rate decision.
	0830 ET	ECB President Mario Draghi holds press conference following ECB meeting.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR03/05/2015

Company	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Joy Global Inc	JOY US	Bef-mkt	Q1 2015 Earnings Release	Q1 2015	0.361
Kroger Co/The	KR US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	0.903
Costco Wholesale Corp	COST US	Bef-mkt	Q2 2015 Earnings Release	Q2 2015	1.179
L Brands Inc	LB US	7:30	February 2015 Sales and Revenue Call	2015
Verisk Analytics Inc	VRSK US	8:30	Investor Day	Y 2015
MDU Resources Group Inc	MDU US	9:00	Investor & Analyst Meeting	Y 2015
TransDigm Group Inc	TDG US	9:00	Annual General Meeting	Y 2015
Kroger Co/The	KR US	10:00	Q4 2015 Earnings Call	Q4 2015
Greif Inc	GEF US	10:00	Q1 2015 Earnings Call	Q1 2015
Joy Global Inc	JOY US	11:00	Q1 2015 Earnings Call	Q1 2015
Costco Wholesale Corp	COST US	11:00	Q2 2015 Earnings Call	Q2 2015
WESCO International Inc	WCC US	13:00	Investor Day	Y 2015
Cooper Cos Inc/The	COO US	16:00	Q1 2015 Earnings Release	Q1 2015	1.535
Fossil Group Inc	FOSL US	16:00	Investor Day	Y 2015
Cooper Cos Inc/The	COO US	17:00	Q1 2015 Earnings Call	Q1 2015
Pandora Media Inc	P US	17:00	Analyst & Investor Day	Y 2015
Paramount Group Inc	PGRE US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	0.18
Equifax Inc	EFX US		Investor Meeting	Y 2015
Gap Inc/The	GPS US		February 2015 Sales and Revenue Release	2015
L Brands Inc	LB US		February 2015 Sales and Revenue Release	2015
Rite Aid Corp	RAD US		February 2015 Sales and Revenue Release	2015
AmerisourceBergen Corp	ABC US		Annual General Meeting
Xcel Energy Inc	XEL US		Investor Meeting - New York	Y 2015
Hospira Inc	HSP US		Trial begins-U.S. Ct of Appeals: Medicines Co. vs. Hospira Patent-Infringement
Riverbed Technology Inc	RVBD US		Special Meeting - M&A Vote

BARCHART MORNING CALL 3/4

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Wednesday, March 4th, 2015View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

March E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 -0.31%) this morning are down -0.32% ahead of Feb ADP employment data and ahead of the Fed Beige Book, while European stock are up +0.06% after Eurozone Jan retail sales rose more than expected. Gains in European stocks were limited after the Eurozone Feb composite PMI grew less than expected. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan -0.59%, Hong Kong -0.96%, China +0.65%, Taiwan +0.17%, Australia -0.54%, Singapore -0.19%, South Korea -0.07%, India -0.72%. Commodity prices are mostly lower due to strength in the dollar. Apr crude oil (CLJ15 +0.79%) is up +0.49% and Apr gasoline (RBJ15 -1.21%) is down -0.96%. Apr gold (GCJ15 +0.05%) is down -0.08%. May copper (HGK15 +0.30%) is down -0.19%. Agriculture prices are weaker. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.25%) is up +0.30% at a fresh 11-1/3 year high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.40% at a 5-week low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.11%. Jun T-note prices (ZNM15 +0.07%) are down -0.50 of a tick.
Eurozone Jan retail sales rose +1.1% m/m and +3.7% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.2% m/m and +2.3% y/y with the +3.7% y/y gain the largest annual increase in nearly 9-1/2 years.
The Eurozone Feb Markit composite PMI was revised downward by -0.2 to 53.3 from the originally reported 53.5, but still is the fastest pace of expansion in 7 months.
The German Feb Markit services PMI was revised lower by -0.8 to 54.7 from the originally reported 55.5.
The UK Feb Markit/CIPS services PMI unexpectedly fell -0.5 to 56.7, weaker than expectations of +0.3 to 57.5.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBA) unexpectedly lowered the benchmark repurchase rate by -25 bp to 7.50% with RBA Governor Rajan saying "given low capacity utilization and still-weak indicators of production and credit off-take, it is appropriate for the RBA to be pre-emptive in its policy action to utilize available space for monetary accommodation."

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Today’s Feb ADP employment report is expected to show a respectable increase of +220,000, stronger than the +213,000 increase seen in January. Today’s Feb ISM non-manufacturing index is expected to show a small -0.2 decline to 56.5, thus reversing January’s small +0.2 point increase to 56.7. The Fed today will release its Beige Book report ahead of the March 17-18 FOMC meeting. There are 3 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today: H&R Block (consensus $-0.17), Brown-Forman (0.86), PetSmart (1.37).
Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Cowen & Co. Health Care Conference on Mon-Wed, Citigroup Global Property CEO Conference on Mon-Wed, Raymond James & Associates Institutional Investors Conference on Mon-Wed, Morgan Stanley Technology Media & Telecom Conference on Mon-Thu, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Consumer & Retail Conference on Tue-Wed, J.P. Morgan Aviation, Transportation and Industrials Conference on Tue-Thu, Mitsubishi UFJ Securities 3rd Annual Seattle Consumer Conference on Wed, Morgan Stanley European MedTech & Services Conference on Wed, Simmons Energy Conference on Wed, UBS Natural Gas, Electric Power and MLP Conference on Wed, UBS Utilities and Natural Gas Conference on Wed, UBS Global Consumer Conference on Wed-Thu, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Refining Conference on Thu, Barclays Investment Grade Energy & Pipeline Conference on Thu, Pacific Crest Emerging Technology Summit on Thu, Morgan Stanley MLP/Diversified Natural Gas, Utilities Clean Tech Conference on Thu.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Alcoa (AA +1.54%) and Century Aluminum (CENX -1.44%) were both downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at BofA/Merrill Lynch.
Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS +1.05%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Needham.
Best Buy (BBY +1.42%) was upgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Underperform' at Wedbush.
Halyard Health (HYH -0.92%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $1.59, well above consensus of 77 cents.
Trina Solar (TSL +1.19%) reported Q4 EPS of 13 cents, right on consensus, although Q4 revenue of $705.04 million was higher than consensus of $642.88 million.
AutoZone (AZO +0.36%) was upgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Underperform' at Sterne Agee.
VWR (VWR -0.76%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 43 cents, higher than consensus of 37 cents.
McDonald's (MCD -0.26%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Sector Perform' at RBC Capital.
ABM Industries (ABM -0.16%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 38 cents, better than consensus of 34 cents, and then raised guidacne on fiscal 2015 adjusted EPS view to $1.75-$1.85, above consensus of $1.75.
Air France-KLM (AFLYY +0.91%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Goldman Sachs.
Cascade Investment reported a 7.9% stake in Strategic Hotels (BEE -1.82%) .
Engility Holdings (EGL -1.40%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 67 cents, less than consensus of 69 cents.
Bob Evans (BOBE +0.27%) plunged over 15% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 EPS of 60 cents, below consensus of 70 cents, and then lowered guidance on fiscal 2015 EPS view to $1.40-$1.60 from $1.90 to $2.10, weaker than consensus of $1.97.

MARKET COMMENTS

Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 -0.31%) this morning are down -6.75 points (-0.32%). The S&P 500 index on Tuesday slipped to a 1-week low and closed lower: S&P 500 -0.45%, Dow Jones -0.47%, Nasdaq -0.54%. Bearish factors included (1) weakness in automakers after Feb auto sales came in below expectations, (2) a sell-off in transportation stocks after railroad companies tumbled, and (3) weakness in healthcare stocks as biotechnology companies slumped after their recent run up.
Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM15 +0.07%) this morning are down -0.50 of a tick. Jun 10-year T-note futures prices on Tuesday fell to a 1-week low and closed lower. Closes: TYM5 -10.00, FVM5 -6.00. The main bearish factor was an increase in corporate supply after Activis Plc launched a $21 billion debt sale, which prompted bond dealers to hedge their purchases by selling long-term Treasuries. Losses were limited after a slide in the S&P 500 to a 1-week low boosted the safe-haven demand for T-notes.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.25%) this morning is up +0.285 (+0.30%) at a fresh 11-1/3 year high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0045 (-0.40%) at a 5-week low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.13 (-0.11%). The dollar index on Tuesday posted a 11-1/3 year high but shed its advance and closed lower: Dollar index -0.079 (-0.08%), EUR/USD -0.00077 (-0.07%), USD/JPY -0.402 (-0.33%). Bearish factors included (1) a rally in USD/JPY after a slide in stocks boosted safe-haven demand for the yen, and (2) the +2.9% m/m increase in German Jan retail sales, the largest monthly increase in 7 years which was supportive for EUR/USD.
Apr WTI crude oil (CLJ15 +0.79%) this morning is up +25 cents (+0.49%) and Apr gasoline (RBJ15 -1.21%) is down -0.0188 (-0.96%). Apr crude and Apr gasoline prices on Tuesday closed higher: CLJ5 +0.93 (+1.88%), RBJ5 +0.0427 (+2.25%). Bullish factors included (1) a weaker dollar, and (2) expectations for Wednesday’s EIA data to show gasoline inventories fell -1.75 million bbl and distillate stockpiles declined -2.0 million bbl. Gains in crude were muted on expectations that Wednesday’s EIA data will show crude supplies rose +4.0 million bbl to the highest since EIA data began in 1982.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR03/04/2015

US	0700 ET	Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous -3.5% with purchase sub-index +4.6% and refi sub-index -7.5%.
	0815 ET	Feb ADP employment change expected +220,000, Jan +213,000. Benchmark revisions.
	0900 ET	Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks on the economic outlook and monetary policy to the Lake Forest-Lake Bluff Rotary Club 2015 Economic Breakfast.
	0945 ET	Final-Feb Markit U.S. services PMI expected unrevised at 57.0, early-Feb +2.8 to 57.0. Final-Feb Markit U.S. composite PMI, prelim-Feb +2.4 to 56.8.
	1000 ET	Feb ISM non-manufacturing index expected -0.2 to 56.5, Jan +0.2 to 56.7.
	1030 ET	EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
	1300 ET	Kansas City Fed President Esther George speaks on the economy at an event in Kansas City, MO.
	1400 ET	Fed Beige Book.
GER	0355 ET	Revised German Feb Markit services PMI, previous +1.5 to 55.5.
EUR	0400 ET	Revised Eurozone Feb Markit composite PMI, previous +0.9 to 53.5.
	0500 ET	Eurozone Jan retail sales expected +0.2% m/m and +2.3% y/y, Dec +0.3% m/m and +2.8% y/y.
UK	0430 ET	UK Feb Markit/CIPS services PMI expected +0.3 to 57.5, Jan 57.2.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR03/04/2015

Company	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
PetSmart Inc	PETM US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	1.373
Halyard Health Inc	HYH US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	0.765
VWR Corp	VWR US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	0.367
Fastenal Co	FAST US	7:00	February 2015 Sales and Revenue Release	2015
Abercrombie & Fitch Co	ANF US	7:30	Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	1.147
Brown-Forman Corp	BF/B US	8:00	Q3 2015 Earnings Release	Q3 2015	0.864
Abercrombie & Fitch Co	ANF US	8:30	Q4 2015 Earnings Call	Q4 2015
VWR Corp	VWR US	8:30	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
Exxon Mobil Corp	XOM US	9:00	Analyst Meeting	Y 2015
Progressive Corp/The	PGR US	9:00	Investor Relations Conference Call
Halyard Health Inc	HYH US	9:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
Cabela's Inc	CAB US	9:30	Analyst & Investor Day	Y 2015
Honeywell International Inc	HON US	10:00	Investor Conference	Y 2015
Brown-Forman Corp	BF/B US	10:00	Q3 2015 Earnings Call	Q3 2015
Tyco International Plc	TYC US	10:00	Annual General Meeting	Y 2015
Middleby Corp/The	MIDD US	10:30	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
H&R Block Inc	HRB US	16:30	Q3 2015 Earnings Call	Q3 2015
H&R Block Inc	HRB US	Aft-mkt	Q3 2015 Earnings Release	Q3 2015	-0.166
Greif Inc	GEF US	Aft-mkt	Q1 2015 Earnings Release	Q1 2015	0.355
Helmerich & Payne Inc	HP US		Annual General Meeting	Y 2015
Hill-Rom Holdings Inc	HRC US		Annual General Meeting
Apple Inc	AAPL US		Trial Begins-U.S. Ct of Appeals: Apple vs. Samsung in Patent-Infringement Case
Manitowoc Co Inc/The	MTW US		ITC Final Decision Due on Manitowoc vs. Sany Heavy Patent-Infringement Case
PTC Inc	PTC US		Annual General Meeting
AutoNation Inc	AN US		February 2015 Sales and Revenue Release	2015
AECOM	ACM US		Annual General Meeting
Xcel Energy Inc	XEL US		Investor Meeting - Boston	Y 2015

BARCHART MORNING CALL 2/9

BARCHART MORNING CALL 

Monday, February 9th, 2015View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

March E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 -0.54%) this morning are down -0.60% and European stocks are down -1.59% on Greek sovereign debt concerns after Greek Prime Minister Tsipras on Sunday vowed to negotiate an end to austerity measures, which fuels concern about a confrontation with Greece's international creditors. EU finance ministers will hold an emergency meeting in Brussels on Wednesday with Greek Finance Minister Varoufakis to discuss Greece's financing needs. Also pressuring stocks was an unexpected decline in China Jan exports, which fell by the most in 10 months and heightens concern about a global economic slowdown. Asian stocks closed mostly lower: Japan +0.36%, Hong Kong -0.64%, China +1.01%, Taiwan -0.37%, Australia -0.09%, Singapore -0.39%, South Korea -0.36%, India -1.71%. Despite the largest drop in China Jan imports in 5-1/2 years, Chinese stocks rose on speculation that the government will boost stimulus measures to revive economic growth. Commodity prices are mostly higher. Mar crude oil (CLH15 +1.66%) is up +1.37% and Mar gasoline (RBH15 +1.12%) is up +0.83%. Apr gold (GCJ15 +0.35%) is up +0.53%. Mar copper (HGH15 -0.35%) is down -0.04%. Agriculture prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 unch) is down -0.03%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.05%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.54%. Mar T-note prices (ZNH15 +0.17%) are up +7.5 ticks.
The China Jan trade balance unexpectedly expanded to a record +$60.03 billion surplus, wider than expectations of a +$48.90 billion surplus. Jan exports unexpectedly fell -3.3% y/y, weaker than expectations of +5.9% y/y and the lowest in 10 months. Jan imports sank -19.9% y/y, more than expectations of -3.2% y/y and the biggest decline in 5-1/2 years.
The Eurozone Feb Sentix investor confidence jumped +11.5 to 12.4, more than expectations of +2.1 to 3.0 and the highest in 9 months.
The German Dec trade balance unexpectedly widened to a surplus of +19.1 billion euros, wider than expectations of +16.0 billion euros. Dec exports rose +3.4% m/m, better than expectations of +1.0% m/m. Dec imports unexpectedly fell -0.8% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m.
The Japan Jan consumer confidence index rose +0.3 to 39.1, less than expectations of +0.5 to 39.3.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

There are no U.S. economic reports today. There are 7 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today: Diamond Offshore Drilling (consensus $0.66), Hasbro (1.20), TECO Energy (0.21), Loews (0.53), Masco (0.20), Computer Sciences (1.12), Dun & Bradstreet (2.62).
Equity conferences this week include: Stifel, Nicolaus Technology, Internet & Media Conference on Mon-Tue, BIO CEO & Investor Conference on Tue, Credit Suisse Financial Services Forum on Tue-Wed, Stifel Transportation and Logistics Conference on Tue-Wed, Goldman Sachs Technology & Internet Conference on Tue-Thu, Aviation Festival Asia on Wed-Thu, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Insurance Conference on Wed-Thu, Leerink Swann Global Health Care Conference on Wed-Thu, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Rates and Currencies Risk Management Conference on Wed-Thu, BB&T Capital Markets Transportation Services Conference on Wed-Thu, and Morgan Stanley Chemicals Corporate Access Day on Thu.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Alcoa (AA -2.93%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Overweight' at JPMorgan Chase.
Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD +7.12%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Miller Tabak.
Pfizer (PFE +0.55%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at BMO Capital.
B. Riley downgraded Skechers (SKX -0.81%) to 'Neutral' from 'Buy.'
Prudential (PRU +3.29%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Deutsche Bank.
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF -0.15%) was downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Hold' at Wunderlich.
TECO Energy (TE -3.26%) reported Q4 EPS of 19 cents, less than consensus of 21 cents.
Loews (L +0.02%) reported Q4 EPS of 59 cents, better than consensus of 53 cents.
Masco (MAS +1.80%) reported Q4 EPS pf 24 cents, more than consensus of 20 cents.
Hasbro (HAS -0.69%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.22, highe than consensus of $1.20.
Diamond Offshore Drilling (DO -0.68%) reported Q4 EPS of 73 cents, better than consensus of 66 cents.
Barron's reports that Hillenbrand (HI +2.81%) , which generates lots of free cash and is modestly valued, could see its shares rise 20% over the next year.
Dominion (D -3.79%) reported Q4 EPS of 84 cents, better than consensus of 83 cents.

MARKET COMMENTS

Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 -0.54%) this morning are down -12.25 points (-0.60%). The S&P 500 index on Friday rallied up to a 1-1/4 month high but gave up its gains and closed lower: S&P 500 -0.34%, Dow Jones -0.34%, Nasdaq -0.65%. Bullish factors included (1) the +257,000 increase in U.S. Jan non-farm payrolls, more than expectations of +230,000, along with the upward revision in Dec payrolls to +329,000 from the originally reported +252,000, and (2) the +0.5% m/m increase in U.S. Jan avg hourly earnings, more than expectations of +0.3% m/m and the largest monthly increase in 6 years. Stocks fell back and closed lower on long liquidation after Philadelphia Fed President Plosser said that stronger U.S. economic data has him "at the cusp" of thinking the time to raise interest rates is now.
Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH15 +0.17%) this morning are up +7.5 ticks. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices on Friday slid to a 1-month low and closed lower. Closes: TYH5 -1-4.5/32, FVH5 -27.25. Bearish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected increase in U.S. Jan non-farm payrolls and Jan hourly earnings, which increases the likelihood the Fed raises interest rates as soon as Jun, and (2) hawkish comments from Philadelphia Fed President Plosser who said "we're fast approaching" the point where it's hard to justify not raising rates.
The dollar index (DXY00 unch) this morning is down -0.028 (-0.03%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0006 (-0.05%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.64 (-0.54%). The dollar index on Friday closed higher: Dollar index +1.129 (+1.21%), EUR/USD -0.01663 (-1.45%), USD/JPY +1.606 (+1.37%). Bullish factors included (1) the stronger-than-expected U.S. Jan payrolls report, which bolsters the outlook for the Fed to raise interest rates sooner rather than later, and (2) weakness in the yen after USD/JPY climbed to a 3-week high as an early rally in the S&P 500 to a 1-1/4 month high reduced the safe-haven demand for the yen.
Mar WTI crude oil (CLH15 +1.66%) this morning is up +71 cents (+1.37%) and Mar gasoline (RBH15 +1.12%) is up +0.0129 (+0.83%). Mar crude oil and Mar gasoline on Friday closed higher: CLH5 +1.21 (+2.40%), RBH5 +0.0402 (+2.64%). Bullish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected increase in U.S. Jan non-farm payrolls, a sign of economic strength, (2) signs that U.S. oil production may fall after data from Baker Hughes that showed operating U.S. oil rigs in the week ended Feb 6 fell to a 3-year low of 1140, and (3) the ongoing strike by the United Steelworkers union, which represents employees at more than 200 refineries and 10% of U.S. refining output, which may lead to reduced gasoline and distillate output.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR02/09/2015

US	1100 ET	USDA weekly grain export inspections.
	n/a	2-day meeting of G-20 finance chiefs begins in Istanbul, Turkey.
JPN	0000 ET	Japan Jan consumer confidence index expected +0.5 to 39.3, Dec 38.8.
	0100 ET	Japan Jan eco-watchers survey current expected +0.6 to 45.8, Dec 45.2. Jan eco-watchers survey outlook expected +0.8 to 47.5, Dec 46.7.
	1850 ET	Japan Dec tertiary industry index expected -0.1% m/m, Nov +0.2% m/m.
GER	0200 ET	German Dec trade balance expected +16.0 billion euros, Nov +17.9 billion euros. Dec exports expected +1.0% m/m, Nov -1.9% m/m. Dec imports expected +0.2% m/m, Nov +1.6% m/m.
EUR	0430 ET	Eurozone Feb Sentix investor confidence expected +2.1 to 3.0, Jan 0.9.
UK	1901 ET	UK Jan BRC sales like-for-like expected +0.5% y/y, Dec -0.4% y/y.
CHI	2030 ET	China Jan CPI expected +1.0% y/y, Dec +1.5% y/y. Jan PPI expected -3.7% y/y, Dec -3.3% y/y.
	n/a	China Jan new yuan loans expected 1.350 trillion yuan, Dec +697.3 billion yuan.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR02/09/2015

Company	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc	DO US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	0.657
Hasbro Inc	HAS US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	1.195
TECO Energy Inc	TE US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	0.211
Loews Corp	L US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	0.53
Masco Corp	MAS US	7:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	0.199
Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc	DO US	8:30	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
Hasbro Inc	HAS US	8:30	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
Masco Corp	MAS US	8:30	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
Dominion Resources Inc/VA	D US	9:00	Analyst Meeting	Y 2015
TECO Energy Inc	TE US	10:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
Loews Corp	L US	11:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
Gap Inc/The	GPS US	16:00	January 2015 Sales and Revenue Release	2015
Computer Sciences Corp	CSC US	16:15	Q3 2015 Earnings Release	Q3 2015	1.115
Computer Sciences Corp	CSC US	17:00	Q3 2015 Earnings Call	Q3 2015
Dun & Bradstreet Corp/The	DNB US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	2.616
Masco Corp	MAS US		Investor Day	Y 2015
McDonald's Corp	MCD US		January 2015 Sales and Revenue Release	2015

BARCHART MORNING CALL 2/2

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Monday, February 2nd, 2015View Older Reports

Everything you need to know about the markets in one free daily newsletter.

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

March E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 +0.25%) this morning are up +0.38% as energy producers and oil service providers gained in pre-market trading after crude oil jumped to a 2-week high, while European stocks are down -0.12%, led by a plunge in Spanish bank stocks, on concern Spain may try to follow Greece in attempting to renegotiate the country's debt. The leader of Spain's anti-austerity party, Podemos, pledged to restructure Spain's debt if his party can convert its opinion-poll lead into victory in elections later this year. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan -0.66%, Hong Kong -0.09%, China -2.34%, Taiwan +0.27%, Australia +0.66%, Singapore +0.95%, South Korea +0.29%, India -0.21%. China's Shanghai Stock Index fell to a 1-1/2 week low after a gauge of Chinese manufacturing signaled contraction for the first time in over two years. Commodity prices are mostly higher. Mar crude oil (CLH15 +0.58%) is up +3.11% at a 2-week high and Mar gasoline (RBH15 +2.84%) is up +5.00% at a 1-month high after a strike by oil workers in refineries that account for 10% of U.S. refining capacity enters its second day. Feb gold (GCG15 -0.24%) is down -0.24%. Mar copper (HGH15 +0.12%) is up +0.80%. Agriculture prices are higher. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.07%) is down -0.12%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.25%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.14%. Mar T-note prices (ZNH15 -0.02%) are down -0.5 of a tick.
The China Jan manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell -0.3 to 49.8, weaker than expectations of +0.1 to 50.2 and the first time manufacturing activity has contracted in 28 months. The Jan non-manufacturing PMI fell -0.4 to 53.7, the slowest pace of expansion in a year.
The German Jan Markit/BME manufacturing PMI was revised downward to 50.9 from the originally reported 51.0.
UK Jan Markit manufacturing PMI rose +0.5 from an upward revised 52.7 in Dec to 53.0, better than expectations of +0.2 to 52.7.
Japan Jan vehicle sales fell -18.9% y/y, the biggest decline in 3-1/3 years and the sixth consecutive month sales have fallen.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Today’s Jan ISM manufacturing index is expected to show a -0.8 decline to 54.7, which would be the third monthly decline in a row. Today’s Dec personal income report is expected to show a small increase of +0.2% and the Dec personal spending report is expected to show a decline of -0.2% m/m. Today’s Dec PCE deflator is expected to fall to +0.8% y/y from +1.2% in November. Meanwhile, today’s Dec core PCE deflator is expected to edge lower to +1.3% y/y from +1.4% in November.
There are 9 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today: Exxon (consensus $1.34), Pitney Bowes (0.51), Sysco (0.41), Avery Dennison (0.80), Anadarko Petroleum (0.86), Owens-Illinois (0.45), Hartford ((0.94), Torchmark (1.00), XL Group (0.88). Equity conferences this week include: ANS Conference on Nuclear Training and Education on Mon-Tue, In-Pharma Osaka 2015 on Tue, Media Insights & Engagement Conference on Tue-Thu, Cowen and Company Aerospace/Defense Conference & Transport Forum on Wed-Thu.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Tenneco (TEN -2.15%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $1.05, higher than consensus of 99 cents.
NuStar Energy (NS +3.11%) upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at UBS.
Western Gas Partners (WES +1.12%) was reinstated with an 'Overweight' at Barclays with a price target of $84.
Delta Air Lines (DAL -5.78%) and Spirit Airlines (SAVE -7.09%) were both upgraded to 'Strong Buy' from 'Outperform' at Raymond James.
Wyndham (WYN -2.07%) was downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Hold' at Deutsche Bank.
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF -2.18%) and Guess (GES -4.86%) were both downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Hold' at Evercore ISI.
1-800-Flowers.com (FLWS +3.14%) reported Q2 EPS of 68 cents, below consensus of 80 cents.
Diamond Foods (DMND -9.93%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at BMO Capital.
Pitney Bowes (PBI -0.29%) reported Q4 EPS of 51 cents, right on expectations
Sysco (SYY -1.83%) reported Q2 EPS of 41 cents, right on consensus.
Shire (SHPG -1.31%) announced that the U.S. FDA approved its Vyvanse Capsules, the first and only medication for the treatment of moderate to severe binge eating disorder in adults.
Nicholas Woodman reported a 44.9% passive stake in GoPro (GPRO -2.14%) .
JPMorgan Chase reported a 6.5% passive stake in Brandywine Realty (BDN -1.66%) .

MARKET COMMENTS

Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 +0.25%) this morning are up +7.50 poinrs (+0.38%). The S&P 500 index on Friday closed lower: S&P 500 -1.30%, Dow Jones -1.45%, Nasdaq -0.79%. Negative factors included (1) carry-over weakness from a slide in European stocks on deflation concerns after the Eurozone Jan CPI estimate fell by -0.6% y/y and matched the July 2009 decline as the biggest drop since the euro currency was introduced in 1999, and (2) U.S. economic concerns after U.S. Q4 GDP rose +2.6% q/q annualized, weaker than expectations of +3.0%.
Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH15 -0.02%) this morning are down -0.5 of a tick. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices on Friday posted a contract high and closed higher and the 10-year T-note yield fell to a 1-1/2 year low of 1.65%. Closes: TYH5 +22.00, FVH5 +14.75. Bullish factors included (1) concern about a slowdown in the U.S. economy after Q4 GDP expanded at a 2.6% pace, weaker expectations of +3.0%, and (2) carry-over support from a rally in German bund prices to a record high on deflation concerns after Eurozone Jan CPI fell -0.6% y/y and matched the biggest drop since the euro currency was introduced in 1999.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.07%) this morning is down -0.111 (-0.12%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0028 (+0.25%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.16 (+0.14%). The dollar index on Friday closed higher: Dollar index +0.022 (+0.02%), EUR/USD -0.00400 (-0.35%), USD/JPY -0.765 (-0.65%). Bullish factors included (1) hawkish comments from St. Louis Fed President Bullard who said it is “reasonable” to expect an interest rate increase in June or July, and (2) weakness in EUR/USD on deflation concerns after Eurozone Jan core CPI rose +0.6% y/y, the slowest pace of increase since the euro currency was introduced in 1999.
Mar WTI crude oil (CLH15 +0.58%) this morning is up $1.50 (+3.11%) at a 2-week high and Mar gasoline (RBH15 +2.84%) is up +0.0739 (+5.00%) at a 1-month high. Mar crude oil and Mar gasoline on Friday closed sharply higher with Mar crude at a 1-week high and Mar gasoline at a 1-month high: CLH5 +3.71 (+8.33%), RBH5 +0.0875 (+6.29%). Bullish factors included (1) concern that the recent plunge in crude prices will curb U.S, oil output after the Baker Hughes operating oil rig count sank to a 3-year low of 1,223, (2) the unexpected increase in the Jan Chicago PMI, which spurred short covering in crude, and (3) the better-than-expected +4.3% increase in Q4 U.S. personal consumption, which signals increased fuel demand.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR02/02/2015

US	0830 ET	Dec personal spending expected -0.2% m/m, Nov +0.6%. Dec personal income expected +0.2% m/m, Nov +0.4%.
	0830 ET	Dec PCE deflator expected -0.3% m/m and +0.8% y/y, Nov -0.2% m/m and +1.2% y/y. Dec PCE core deflator expected unch m/m and +1.3% y/y, Nov unch m/m and +1.4% y/y.
	0945 ET	Final Jan Markit manufacturing PMI, previous -0.2 to 53.7.
	1000 ET	Dec construction spending expected +0.7% m/m, Nov -0.3%.
	1000 ET	Jan ISM manufacturing index expected -0.8 to 54.7, Dec -3.2 to 55.5. Jan ISM new orders sub-index, Dec -8.7 to 57.3. Jan ISM employment sub-index, Dec +1.9 to 56.8. Jan ISM prices paid sub index expected +1.5 to 40.0, Dec -6.0 to 38.5.
	1100 ET	USDA weekly grain export inspections.
JPN	0000 ET	Japan Jan vehicle sales, Dec -8.8% y/y.
GER	0355 ET	Revised German Jan Markit/BME manufacturing PMI, previous -0.3 to 51.0.
EUR	0300 ET	ECB Executive Board member Benoit Coeure and the central bank chiefs of Austria, Turkey, Portugal, Slovenia, Croatia and Finland meet at a conference in Budapest organized by the Bank of Hungary.
	0400 ET	Revised Eurozone Jan Markit manufacturing PMI, previous +0.4 to 51.0.
UK	0430 ET	UK Jan Markit manufacturing PMI expected +0.2 to 52.7, Dec 52.5.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR02/02/2015

Company	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Pitney Bowes Inc	PBI US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	0.505
Sysco Corp	SYY US	Bef-mkt	Q2 2015 Earnings Release	Q2 2015	0.408
Pitney Bowes Inc	PBI US	8:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
Exxon Mobil Corp	XOM US	8:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	1.339
Avery Dennison Corp	AVY US	8:30	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	0.804
Exxon Mobil Corp	XOM US	9:30	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
Sysco Corp	SYY US	10:00	Q2 2015 Earnings Call	Q2 2015
Avery Dennison Corp	AVY US	11:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
XL Group PLC	XL US	17:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
Anadarko Petroleum Corp	APC US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	0.859
Owens-Illinois Inc	OI US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	0.452
Hartford Financial Services Group Inc/The	HIG US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	0.935
Torchmark Corp	TMK US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	1.002
XL Group PLC	XL US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	0.881