Thursday, June 23rd, 2016View Older Reports
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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU16 +0.99%) are up sharply by +0.99% at a 1-1/2 week high and European stocks are up +2.34% at a 3-week high as the UK referendum on membership in the European Union is under way. Optimism is high that Britain will vote to remain in the EU as GBP/USD soared +1.13% to a 5-3/4 month high. Global government bonds and the price of gold tumbled to 2-week lows with the surge in equity markets. Copper prices (HGN16+0.61%) jumped to a 1-1/2 month high and European stocks also found support on an unexpected increase in the Eurozone Jun Markit manufacturing PMI to its fastest pace of expansion in 6 months. Asian stocks settled mixed: Japan +1.07%, Hong Kong +0.35%, China -0.47%, Taiwan -0.45%, Australia +0.18%, Singapore +0.28%, South Korea -0.18%, India +0.88%.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.54%) is down -0.60% at a 1-1/2 month low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.91% at a 2-week high. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +1.34% at a 1-week high.
The Eurozone Jun Markit manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose +1.1 to 52.6, stronger than expectations of -0.1 to 51.4 and the fastest pace of expansion in 6 months.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) today's Brexit vote in the UK, (2) weekly initial unemployment claims (expected -7,000 to 270,000, previous +13,000 to 277,000) and continuing claims (expected -13,000 to 2.144 million, previous +45,000 to 2.157 million), (3) May Chicago Fed national activity index (expected +0.01 to 0.11, Apr +0.65 to 0.10), (4) preliminary Jun Markit U.S. manufacturing PMI (expected +0.2 to 50.9, May -0.1 to 50.7), (5) May new home sales (expected -9.5% to 560,000, Apr +16.6% to 619,000), (6) May leading indicators (expected +0.1%, Apr +0.6%), (7) Jun Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity (expected unch at -5, May -1 to -5), (8) Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan (non-voter) speaks at a Money Marketeers dinner un New York, and (9) USDA weekly Export Sales.
There is 1 of the Russell 1000 companies that reports earnings today: Accenture (consensus $1.41).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: none.
Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Citigroup Insurance Conference on Thu.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Herman Miller (MLHR -0.86%) climbed over 5% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 56 cents, higher than consensus of 52 cents, and said it sees Q1 adjusted EPS of 60 cents-64 cents, above consensus of 60 cents.
Amazon.com (AMZN -0.73%) was rated a new 'Buy' at Maxim Group with a 12-month price target of $825.
Home Depot (HD -0.11%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Nomura with a price target of $155.
Intuit (INTU -1.34%) was added to America's 'COnviction Buy List' at Goldman Sachs.
CACI International (CACI -0.57%) said it sees fiscal 2017 EPS of $6.02-$6.43, below consensus of $6.50.
Steelcase (SCS -0.87%) slid 4% in after-hours trading after it said it sees Q2 adjusted EPS of 29 cents-33 cents, below consensus of 37 cents.
Apogee Enterprises (APOG -4.22%) jumped over 9% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 EPS of 61 cents, well above consensus of 49 cents, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2017 EPS to $2.70-$2.85 from an April 6 view of $2.65-$2.80.
Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY -0.35%) fell nearly 6% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 EPS of 80 cents, below consensus of 86 cents.
Red Hat (RHT -0.80%) dropped over 5% in after-hours trading after it lowered guidance on fiscal 2017 adjusted EPS to $2.19-$2.23 from a March 22 view of $2.22-$2.26.
H.B. Fuller (FUL -0.45%) reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 67 cents, weaker than consensus of 68 cents.
CubeSmart (CUBE +0.57%) was rated a new 'Outperform' at FBR Capital Markets with a 12-month price target of $35.
The U.S. Department of Defense said Harris Corp. (HRS -0.13%) won a $1.7 billion army contract for radios, ancillaries, spare parts and services for Afghanistan.
Weyerhaeuser (WY +0.14%) said it will close 2 of its 3 lumber and plywood mills in Columbia Falls, Montana this summer and approximately 100 positions will be eliminated.
SolarCity (SCTY +3.26%) fell over 2% in after-hours trading after Citron Research founder Andrew Left said that SolarCity "is not even technology. It's a subprime lender" and that he sees the stock price going to zero.
MARKET COMMENTS
September E-mini S&Ps (ESU16 +0.99%) this morning are up sharply by +20.50 points (+0.99%) at a 1-1/2 week high. Wednesday's closes: S&P 500-0.17%, Dow Jones -0.27%, Nasdaq -0.20%. The S&P 500 on Wednesday closed lower on the IMF's cut in its U.S. 2016 GDP estimate to 2.2% from 2.4% and on long liquidation pressure ahead of Thursday's UK Brexit vote. Stocks found support on the +1.8% increase in U.S. May existing home sales to a 9-1/4 year high of 5.53 million.
Sep 10-year T-note prices (ZNU16 -0.31%) this morning are down -13.5 ticks at a 2-week low. Wednesday's closes: TYU6 +3.00, FVU6 +2.25. Sep T-notes on Wednesday closed higher on economic concerns after the IMF cut its U.S. 2016 GDP forecast and on decent demand for the Treasury's $28 billion 7-year T-note auction that had a 2.56 bid-to-cover ratio, above the 12-auction average of 2.49.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.54%) this morning is down -0.565 (-0.60%) at a 1-1/2 month low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0103 (+0.91%) at a 2-week high. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +1.40 (+1.34%) at a 1-week high. Wednesday's closes: Dollar Index -0.301 (-0.32%), EUR/USD +0.0054 (+0.48%), USD/JPY -0.34 (-0.32%). The dollar index on Wednesday closed lower on strength in GBP/USD as Brexit concerns eased on optimism the UK will vote Thursday to remain in the European Union. The dollar was also undercut by cautious comments from Fed Chair Yellen that signal the Fed may be slow to raise interest rates when she said the "headwinds" of weak productivity growth and tepid business investment may only slowly fade over time.
Aug WTI crude oil (CLQ16 +1.47%) this morning is up +64 cents (+1.30%). Aug gasoline (RBQ16 +0.88%) is up +0.0087 (+0.55%). Wednesday's closes: CLQ6 -0.72 (-1.44%), RBQ6 -0.0086 (-0.54%). Aug crude and gasoline on Wednesday both fell back from 1-week highs and closed lower. Crude oil prices were undercut by the -917,000 bbl decline in EIA crude inventories (less than expectations of -1.5 million bbl) and the unexpected +627,000 bbl increase in EIA gasoline inventories, more than expectations of -1.0 million bbl. Crude oil found support on a weaker dollar and the -0.4%decline in U.S. crude production in the week ended Jun 17 to a 1-3/4 year low of 8.677 million bpd.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR06/23/2016
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR06/23/2016
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Showing posts with label TDG. Show all posts
Showing posts with label TDG. Show all posts
Thursday, June 23, 2016
MORNING CALL 6/23
MORNING CALL
Tuesday, May 31, 2016
MORNING CALL 5/31
MORNING CALL
Tuesday, May 31st, 2016View Older Reports
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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
Jun E-mini S&Ps (ESM16 +0.11%)are up +0.04% at a 1-1/4 month high on optimism that a strengthening U.S. economy could handle another 25 bp rate hike from the Fed. Fed Chair Yellen said Friday afternoon that an improving economy would probably warrant another rate increase "in the coming months." Strength in crude oil prices is lifting energy producers, while European stocks are down -0.33% as automakers declined after Volkswagen dropped over 3% when it reported an 86% plunge in quarterly profit due to its emissions-cheating scandal. European stocks were also undercut after an unexpected decline in German Apr retail sales. Asian stocks settled mostly higher: Japan +0.98%, Hong Kong +0.90%, China +3.34%, Taiwan unch, Australia -0.54%, Singapore -0.20%, South Korea +0.79%, India -0.22%. China's Shanghai Composite climbed to a 3-week high after Goldman Sachs said that it was likely that the stocks in the Shanghai Composite would be included in MSCI Inc.'s global benchmark indexes. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index rose to a 1-month high on optimism the Japanese government will delay an increase in the sales tax after senior officials from Prime Minister Abe's ruling party and its coalition partner said that Prime Minister Abe wants to put off a planned national sale tax increase for 2-1/2 years.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.01%) is up +0.09%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.13%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.04%.
German Apr retail sales unexpectedly fell -0.9% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.9% m/m.
The Eurozone May CPI estimate fell -0.1% y/y, right on expectations. The May core CPI rose +0.8% y/y, right on expectations.
The Eurozone Apr unemployment rate was unch at 10.2%, right on expectations.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Apr personal spending (expected +0.7%, Mar +0.1%) and Apr personal income (expected +0.4%, Mar +0.4%), (2) Apr PCE deflator expected (+0.3% m/m and +1.1% y/y, Mar +0.1% m/m and +0.8% y/y) and Apr core PCE deflator (expected +0.2% m/m and +1.6% y/y, Mar +0.2% m/m and +1.6% y/y), (3) S&P/CaseShiller composite-20 home price index (expected +0.7% m/m and +5.06% y/y, Feb +0.66% m/m and +5.38% y/y), (4) May Chicago PMI (expected +0.1 to 50.5, Apr -3.2 to 50.4), (5) May Conference Board U.S. consumer confidence (expected +2.1 to 96.3, Apr-1.9 to 94.2), (6) May Dallas Fed manufacturing activity (expected +5.9 to -8.0, Apr -13.9), (7) USDA weekly grain export inspections, and (8) USDA Weekly Crop Progress.
There are 3 of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: Golar LNG (consensus -$0.42), Medtronic (1.26), Workday (-0.02).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: Cancer Preventation Pharmaceuticals (CPP).
Equity conferences this week include: Deutsche Bank Global Financial Services Investor Conference on Tue-Wed, BMO Capital Markets Energy & Power Conference on Wed, D. A. Davidson & Co Technology Forum on Wed, Stifel Dental & Veterinary Conference on Wed, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Technology Conference on Wed-Thu, Cowen and Company Technology, Media & Telecom Conference on Wed-Thu, RBC Capital Markets Consumer & Retail Conference on Wed-Thu, Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference on Wed-Fri, Credit Suisse Engineering & Construction Conference on Thu, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Asset Management Conference on Thu, American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) Meeting on Fri.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Celator Pharmaceuticals (CPXX +0.17%) soared over 70% in pre-market trading after it agreed to a $1.5 billion takeover offer from Jazz Pharmaceuticals.
Lockheed Martin (LMT -0.60%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Berenberg.
Marathon Oil (MRO -2.05%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Neutral' at Piper Jaffray.
Deere & Co. (DE +0.29%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at UBS with a 12-month price target of $94.
Micron (MU +3.01%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Neutral' at Robert Baird.
Dril-Quip (DRQ +1.12%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Accumulate' at KLR Group with a price target of $70.
Signature Bank/New York (SBNY +0.85%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Overweight' at Piper Jaffray with a 12-month price target of $146.
TransDigm Group (TDG +0.47%) jumped 4% in after-hours trading after it was announced that it will replace Baxalta in the S&P 500 after the close of trading Thursday, June 2.
Brocade (BRCD +0.23%) rose 3% in after-hours trading after it was announced that it will replace MDC Holdings in the MidCap 400 after the close of trading on Tuesday, May 31.
The FDA approved Zinbryta, made by Biogen (BIIB +0.28%) and Abbvie (ABBV +1.31%) , for the treatment of adults with relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis.
Reuters reports that Williams Cos (WMB +3.22%) has informed Energy Transfer Equity ETE that it is open to considering a new offer that would replace the $6 billion portion of the deal with shares in the acquisition vehicle that Energy Transfer will create.
Osiris Therapeutics (OSIR +1.43%) slumped 10% in after-hours trading after it said a criminal probe against the company was started by the U.S. Attorney's Office for the Southern District of New York.
MARKET COMMENTS
June E-mini S&Ps (ESM16 +0.11%) this morning up +0.75 of a point (+0.04%) at a 1-1/4 month high. Friday's closes: S&P 500 +0.43%, Dow Jones +0.25%, Nasdaq +0.55%. The S&P 500 Friday rallied to a 1-1/4 month high and closed higher on the upward revision to U.S. Q1 GDP to +0.8% from +0.5% and on optimism that the U.S. economy is strong enough to handle further Fed rate hikes. Stocks were undercut by the -1.1 point decline in final-May University of Michigan U.S. consumer sentiment index to 94.7, weaker than expectations of -0.4 to 95.4.
June 10-year T-note prices (ZNM16 -0.24%) this morning are down -12.5 ticks. Friday's closes: TYM6 -3.50, FVM6 -3.00. Jun T-notes on Friday closed lower on the upward revision to U.S. Q1 GDP to +0.8% from +0.5%, hawkish comments from Fed Chair Yellen who said a Fed rate hike in coming months may be "appropriate," and reduced safe-haven demand with the rally in stocks.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.01%) this morning is up +0.085 (+0.09%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0014 (+0.13%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down-0.05 (-0.04%). Friday's closes: Dollar Index +0.353 (+0.37%), EUR/USD -0.0079 (-0.71%), USD/JPY +0.55 (+0.50%). The dollar index on Friday rallied to a 2-month high and closed higher on the upward revision in U.S. Q1 GDP to +0.8% from +0.5% and hawkish comments from Fed Chair Yellen who said a Fed rate hike in coming months may be "appropriate." The dollar was also boosted by weakness in EUR/USD which tumbled to a 2-1/2 month low on divergent central bank policies with the Fed expected to further tighten monetary policy while the ECB maintains or even expands its monetary policy.
July WTI crude oil (CLN16 +0.47%) this morning is up +14 cents (+0.28%). July gasoline (RBN16 -0.90%) is down -0.0192 (-1.17%). Friday's closes: CLN6 -0.15 (-0.30%), RBN6 +0.0111 (+0.68%). July crude oil and gasoline prices on Friday settled mixed as July gasoline rebounded from a 1-week low. Crude oil prices were undercut by the rally in the dollar index to a 2-month high and by the restart of oil-sands facilities in Alberta as wildfire risks abated. Gasoline prices were boosted by signs of stronger demand as the AAA estimates that 38 million Americans will travel 50 miles or more this Memorial holiday weekend, up +2.2% y/y and the second-highest ever.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR05/31/2016
| US | 0830 ET | Apr personal spending expected +0.7%, Mar +0.1%. Apr personal income expected +0.4%, Mar +0.4%. |
| 0830 ET | Apr PCE deflator expected +0.3% m/m and +1.1% y/y, Mar +0.1% m/m and +0.8% y/y. Apr core PCE deflator expected +0.2% m/m and +1.6% y/y, Mar +0.2% m/m and +1.6% y/y. | |
| 0900 ET | Mar S&P/CaseShiller composite-20 home price index expected +0.7% m/m and +5.06% y/y, Feb +0.66% m/m and +5.38% y/y. | |
| 0945 ET | May Chicago PMI expected +0.1 to 50.5, Apr -3.2 to 50.4. | |
| 1000 ET | May U.S. consumer confidence (Conference Board) expected +2.1 to 96.3, Apr -1.9 to 94.2. | |
| 1030 ET | May Dallas Fed manufacturing activity expected +5.9 to -8.0, Apr -13.9. | |
| 1100 ET | USDA weekly grain export inspections. | |
| 1600 ET | USDA Weekly Crop Progress. | |
| JPN | 0000 ET | Japan Apr vehicle production, Mar +1.2% y/y. |
| 0100 ET | Japan Apr housing starts expected +4.0% to 950,000 annualized, Mar +8.4% y/y to 993,000 annualized. | |
| 0100 ET | Japan Apr construction orders, Mar +19.8% y/y. | |
| 1950 ET | Japan Q1 capital spending expected +1.9% y/y, Q4 +8.5% y/y. Q1 capital spending ex software expected +4.1% y/y, Q4 +8.9% y/y. | |
| 2200 ET | Revised Japan May Nikkei manufacturing PMI. | |
| GER | 0200 ET | German Apr retail sales expected +1.0% m/m and +1.9% y/y, Mar -1.4% m/m and +0.7% y/y. |
| 0355 ET | German May unemployment change expected -5,000, Apr -16,000. May unemployment rate, Apr 6.2%. | |
| EUR | 0400 ET | Eurozone Apr M3 money supply expected +5.0% y/y, Mar +5.0% y/y. |
| 0500 ET | Eurozone Apr unemployment rate expected unch at 10.2%, Mar -0.2 to 10.2%. | |
| 0500 ET | Eurozone May CPI estimate expected -0.1% y/y, Apr -0.2% y/y. May core CPI expected +0.8% y/y, Apr +0.7% y/y. | |
| UK | 1901 ET | UK May BRC shop price index, Apr -1.7% y/y. |
| CHI | 2100 ET | China May manufacturing PMI expected -0.1 to 50.0, Apr -0.1 to 50.1. May non-manufacturing PMI, Apr -0.3 to 53.5. |
| 2145 ET | China May Caixin manufacturing PMI expected -0.2 to 49.2, Apr -0.3 to 49.4. |
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR05/31/2016
| Company | Ticker | Time | Event Description | Period | Estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golar LNG Ltd | GLNG US | Bef-mkt | Q1 2016 Earnings Release | Q1 2016 | -0.424 |
| Medtronic PLC | MDT US | 6:45 | Q4 2016 Earnings Release | Q4 2016 | 1.264 |
| Medtronic PLC | MDT US | 8:00 | Q4 2016 Earnings Call | Q4 2016 | |
| Golar LNG Ltd | GLNG US | 10:00 | Q1 2016 Earnings Call | Q1 2016 | |
| Workday Inc | WDAY US | 17:00 | Q1 2017 Earnings Call | Q1 2017 | |
| Workday Inc | WDAY US | Aft-mkt | Q1 2017 Earnings Release | Q1 2017 | -0.021 |
| Henry Schein Inc | HSIC US | Annual General Meeting | |||
| Tesla Motors Inc | TSLA US | Annual General Meeting | |||
| Empire State Realty Trust Inc | ESRT US | Annual General Meeting |
Wednesday, March 2, 2016
MORNING CALL 3/2
MORNING CALL
Dollar Tree (DLTR +2.22%) was downgraded to 'Market Perform' from 'Strong Buy' at Raymond James.
Wednesday, March 2nd, 2016View Older Reports
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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
March E-mini S&Ps (ESH16 -0.14%) are down -0.28% as they follow crude oil prices lower, although European stocks are up +0.39% at a 1-month high as miners and commodity producers rallied and led the overall market higher after the price of copper jumped to a 3-1/2 month high. Crude oil is down -1.95% after data late yesterday from API showed U.S. crude inventories surged +9.9 million bbl last week. Asian stocks settled higher: Japan +4.11%, Hong Kong +3.07%, China +4.26%, Taiwan +0.69%, Australia +2.01%, Singapore +1.66%, South Korea +1.70%, India +1.95%. Chinese stocks rallied on speculation the government will announce measures to boost growth at legislative meetings that begin Saturday. China's National People's Congress will begin a 2-week meeting starting March 5 where delegates will sign off on a new 5-year economic plan. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index climbed to a 3-week high as exporter stocks rallied after the yen fell to a 2-week low against eh dollar, which improves earnings prospects of exporters
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.10%) is up +0.10%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.12%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.32% at a 2-week high.
Jun T-note prices (ZNM16 -0.12%) are down -4 ticks at a 4-week low on hawkish comments from San Francisco Fed President Williams who said the U.S. economy is set to "power ahead." which increases the chance of a Fed rate hike at the Mar 15-16 FOMC meeting.
In a telephone interview with the Financial Times, San Francisco Fed President Williams said "he doesn't see any signs in the data of any slackening of domestic demand" and that the U.S. economy is set to "power ahead" and push inflation back to target as positive U.S. domestic demand outweighs weakness from abroad.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) weekly MBA mortgage applications (previous -4.3% with purchase sub-index +2.2% and refi sub-index -7.7%), (2) Feb ADP employment change (expected +188,000, Jan +205,000), (3) Feb New York ISM (Jan -7.4 to 54.6), (4) San Francisco Fed President John Williams' speech at the Bishop Ranch Forum in San Ramon, CA, and (5) Fed Beige Book.
There are 2 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today: Costco Wholesale (consensus $1.28), Brown-Forman (0.94).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: Syndax Pharmaceuticals (SNDX).
Equity conferences this week include: Morgan Stanley Technology Media & Technology Conference on Mon-Thu, Pacific Crest Securities Emerging Technology Summit on Tue-Wed, UBS Natural Gas & Electric Utilities Conference on Wed, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Agriculture and Chemicals Conference on Wed-Thu, Bank of America Refining Conference on Thu, Citi Asset Management, Broker Dealer & Exchanges Investor Conference on Thu, Gabelli & Company Waste & Environmental Services Conference on Thu, Simmons Energy Conference on Thu-Fri.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Dollar Tree (DLTR +2.22%) was downgraded to 'Market Perform' from 'Strong Buy' at Raymond James.
Amazon.com (AMZN +4.80%) was rated a new 'Outperform' at BMO with a price target of $700.
Weatherford International PLC (WFT -3.28%) dropped over 3% in after-hours trading after it announced an offering of 80 million shares of common stock.
Ross Stores (ROST +2.27%) gained almost 1% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 EPS of 66 cents, higher than consensus of 64 cents.
Ascena Retail Group (ASNA +4.73%) slid over 4% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 revenue of $1.84 billion, weaker than consensus of $1.88 billion, and then lowered guidance in Q3 EPS to 10 cents-14 cents, below consensus of 19 cents.
Veeva Systems (VEEV +3.25%) dropped over 2% in after-hours trading after it lowered guidance on fiscal 2016 adjusted EPS to 54 cents-56 cents, below consensus of 57 cents.
Bob Evans Farms BOBE reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 62 cents, better than consensus of 55 cents.
NeoPhotonics (NPTN +5.75%) rose over 5% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 16 cents, better than consensus of 10 cents.
Chuy's Holdings (CHUY +2.34%) climbed over 6% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 18 cents, higher than consensus of 13 cents.
Guidewire Software (GWRE +2.62%) jumped 8% in after-hours trading after it raised guidance on fiscal 2016 adjusted EPS to 64 cents-71 cents from a prior view of 57 cents-66 cents, above consensus of 64 cents.
Darling Ingredients (DAR +1.44%) rose over 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 pro forma adjusted Ebitda of $103.1 million, above estimates of $97.1 million.
Big 5 Sporting Goods (BGFV -2.99%) slumped over 12% in after-hours trading after it lowered guidance for Q1 EPS to between a net -5 cent loss to a 2 cent profit, below consensus of a 6 cent profit.
MARKET COMMENTS
Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH16 -0.14%) this morning are down -5.50 points (-0.28%). Tuesday's closes: S&P 500 +2.39%, Dow Jones +2.11%, Nasdaq +3.15%. The S&P 500 on Tuesday rose to a 1-3/4 month high and closed sharply higher on the strong U.S. economic reports, which included the +1.3 point increase in the U.S. Feb ISM manufacturing index to 49.5 (stronger than expectations of +0.3 to 48.5) and the +1.5% jump in U.S Jan construction spending (stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m and the largest increase in 8 months). Stocks were undercut by the -0.4 point decline in the China Feb manufacturing PMI to 49.0, weaker than expectations of unch at 49.4 and matched Nov 2011 as the steepest pace of contraction in 7 years.
Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM16 -0.12%) this morning are down -4 ticks at a 4-week low. Tuesday's closes: TYM6 -29.50, FVM6 -16.00. Jun T-notes on Tuesday sold off to a 3-week low and closed lower on strength in the U.S. Feb ISM manufacturing and Jan construction spending reports, reduced safe-haven demand with the rally in stocks, and an increase in inflation expectations after the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation rate climbed to a 1-1/2 month high.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.10%) this morning is up +0.101 (+0.10%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0013 (-0.12%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.36 (+0.32%) at a 2-week high. Tuesday's closes: Dollar Index +0.141 (+0.14%), EUR/USD -0.00051 (-0.05%), USD/JPY +1.32 (+1.17%). The dollar index on Tuesday rose to a 4-week high and settled higher on the stronger-than-expected U.S. Feb ISM manufacturing and Jan construction spending reports, which may accelerate a Fed rate hike. In addition, EUR/USD slumped to a 1-month low on expectations for the ECB to expand stimulus at next week's policy meeting.
Apr WTI crude (CLJ16 -1.37%) this morning is down -67 cents (-1.95%) and Apr gasoline (RBJ16 +0.61%) is up +0.0007 (+0.05%). Tuesday's closes: CLJ6 +0.65 (+1.93%), RBJ6 -0.0202 (-1.53%). Apr crude oil and gasoline on Tuesday settled mixed. Metals prices were boosted by the rally in global stocks and the stronger-than-expected U.S. Feb ISM manufacturing and Jan construction spending reports, which were positive for energy demand. Metals prices were undercut by the rally in the dollar index to a 4-week high and by expectations for U.S. crude supplies to increase by +2.75 million bbl in Wednesday's EIA inventory report.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR03/02/2016
| US | 0700 ET | Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous -4.3% with purchase sub-index +2.2% and refi sub-index -7.7%. |
| 0815 ET | Feb ADP employment change expected +188,000, Jan +205,000. | |
| 0945 ET | Feb New York ISM, Jan -7.4 to 54.6. | |
| 1000 ET | San Francisco Fed President John Williams speaks at the Bishop Ranch Forum in San Ramon, CA. | |
| 1030 ET | EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report. | |
| 1400 ET | Fed Beige Book. | |
| UK | 0430 ET | UK Feb Markit/CIPS construction PMI expected +0.5 to 55.5, Jan 55.0. |
| EUR | 0500 ET | Eurozone Jan PPI expected -1.0% m/m and -2.9% y/y, Dec -0.8% m/m and -3.0% y/y. |
| CHI | 2045 ET | China Feb Caixin composite PMI, Jan +0.7 to 50.1. |
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR03/02/2016
| Company | Ticker | Time | Event Description | Period | Estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brown-Forman Corp | BF/B US | 8:00 | Q3 2016 Earnings Release | Q3 2016 | 0.94 |
| Huntsman Corp | HUN US | 8:00 | Investor Day | Y 2016 | |
| Exxon Mobil Corp | XOM US | 9:00 | Analyst Meeting | Y 2016 | |
| Progressive Corp/The | PGR US | 9:00 | Investor Relations Conference Call | ||
| TransDigm Group Inc | TDG US | 9:00 | Annual General Meeting | Y 2016 | |
| Honeywell International Inc | HON US | 10:00 | Investor Conference | Y 2016 | |
| Brown-Forman Corp | BF/B US | 10:00 | Q3 2016 Earnings Call | Q3 2016 | |
| Middleby Corp/The | MIDD US | 11:00 | Q4 2015 Earnings Call | Q4 2015 | |
| Cerner Corp | CERN US | 12:00 | Investment Community Meeting | Y 2016 | |
| WESCO International Inc | WCC US | 13:00 | Investor Day | Y 2016 | |
| Target Corp | TGT US | 14:30 | Financial Community Meeting | Y 2016 | |
| Cable One Inc | CABO US | Aft-mkt | Q4 2015 Earnings Release | Q4 2015 | 3.33 |
| Costco Wholesale Corp | COST US | 21:00 | Q2 2016 Earnings Release | Q2 2016 | 1.281 |
| Helmerich & Payne Inc | HP US | Annual General Meeting | |||
| Costco Wholesale Corp | COST US | February 2016 Sales and Revenue Release | 2016 | ||
| Hologic Inc | HOLX US | Annual General Meeting | |||
| PTC Inc | PTC US | Annual General Meeting | |||
| AECOM | ACM US | Annual General Meeting | |||
| Mallinckrodt PLC | MNK US | Annual General Meeting | Y 2016 |
Thursday, March 5, 2015
BARCHART MORNING ALL 3/5
BARCHART MORNING CALL
German Jan factory orders fell -3.9% m/m, weaker than expectations of -1.0% m/m and the biggest monthly decline in 5 months. On an annual basis, Jan factory orders unexpectedly fell -0.1% y/y, weaker than expectations of +2.6% y/y.
UK Feb Halifax house prices fell -0.3% m/m and rose +8.3% y/y, weaker than expectations of -0.2% m/m and +8.5% y/y.
Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Cowen & Co. Health Care Conference on Mon-Wed, Citigroup Global Property CEO Conference on Mon-Wed, Raymond James & Associates Institutional Investors Conference on Mon-Wed, Morgan Stanley Technology Media & Telecom Conference on Mon-Thu, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Consumer & Retail Conference on Tue-Wed, J.P. Morgan Aviation, Transportation and Industrials Conference on Tue-Thu, Mitsubishi UFJ Securities 3rd Annual Seattle Consumer Conference on Wed, Morgan Stanley European MedTech & Services Conference on Wed, Simmons Energy Conference on Wed, UBS Natural Gas, Electric Power and MLP Conference on Wed, UBS Utilities and Natural Gas Conference on Wed, UBS Global Consumer Conference on Wed-Thu, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Refining Conference on Thu, Barclays Investment Grade Energy & Pipeline Conference on Thu, Pacific Crest Emerging Technology Summit on Thu, Morgan Stanley MLP/Diversified Natural Gas, Utilities Clean Tech Conference on Thu.
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF -15.51%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Nomura.
Exxon Mobil (XOM -0.50%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Evercore ISI.
McDonald's (MCD +0.51%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Overweight' at Piper Jaffray.
Joy Global (JOY -1.95%) reported Q1 EPS of 25 cents, less than consensus of 36 cents, and then lowered guidance on fiscal 2015 adjusted EPS view to $2.50-$3.00 from $3.10-$3.50, well below consensus of $3.20.
Sprouts Farmers Markets (SFM -1.22%) filed to sell 15.85 million shares of common stock for holders.
Darling (DAR -0.23%) rose over 4% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 EPS of 42 cents, double consensus of 21 cents.
Pharmacyclics (PCYC +6.33%) jumped over 7% in pre-market trading after AbbVie agreed to buy the company fpr $21 billion.
Alon USA Partners (ALDW -0.06%) reported Q4 EPS of 67 cents, better than consensus of 60 cents.
Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY +6.06%) announced that the FDA has approved its Opdivo injection, for intravenous use, for the treatment of patients with metastatic squamous non-small cell lung cancer.
Coca-Cola Bottling (COKE -2.00%) reported Q4 EPS of 32 cents, higher than one estimate of 13 cents.
H&R Block (HRB -0.86%) reported a Q3 adjusted EPS loss of -13 cents, a smaller loss than consensus of -17 cents.
Roundy's (RNDY -0.25%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 7 cents, more than twice consensus of 3 cents.
Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM15 -0.05%) this morning are down -2 ticks. Jun 10-year T-note futures prices on Wednesday recovered from a 1-week low and closed higher. Closes: TYM5 +3.00, FVM5 +3.50. Bullish factors included (1) the smaller-than-expected increase in Feb ADP employment, and (2) the fall in the S&P 500 to a 1-1/2 week low, which boosted the safe-haven demand for T-notes.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.22%) this morning is up +0.238 (+0.25%) at a fresh 11-1/3 year high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0025 (-0.23%) at an 11-1/2 year low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.47 (+0.39%). The dollar index on Wednesday soared to an 11-1/3 year high and closed higher: Dollar index +0.582 (+0.61%), EUR/USD -0.00975 (-0.87%), USD/JPY -0.063 (-0.05%). Bullish factors included (1) the stronger-than-expected Feb ISM non-manufacturing index, which should keep the Fed on track to raise interest rates later this year, and (2) weakness in EUR/USD/ which fell to a 11-1/3 year low after the Eurozone Feb Markit composite PMI was revised lower.
Apr WTI crude oil (CLJ15 +0.80%) this morning is up +52 cents (+1.01%) at a 1-1/2 week high and Apr gasoline (RBJ15 -0.22%) is down -0.0046 (-0.24%). Apr crude and Apr gasoline prices on Wednesday settled mixed: CLJ5 +1.01 (+2.00%), RBJ5 -0.0274 (-1.41%). Bearish factors included (1) a rally in the dollar index to an 11-1/3 year high, (2) the +10.3 million bbl increase in weekly EIA crude inventories to 444.4 million bbl, far higher than expectations of +4.0 million bbl, and (3) the +0.4% increase in U.S. crude production in the week ended Feb 27 to 9.324 million bpd, the most in over three decades. Crude oil recovered its losses and moved higher after the Fed Beige Book said the U.S. economy continued to expand from Jan through mid Feb.
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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
March E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 +0.16%) this morning are up +0.12% and European stocks are up +0.79% at a 6-3/4 year high ahead of today's ECB meeting where ECB President Draghi will announce details of the ECB's bond-buying program. Increased M&A activity is also supportive for stocks after Abbvie agreed to buy Pharmacyclics for $21 billion. As expected, the BOE kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.50% and left its asset purchase target at 375 billion pounds. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +0.26%, Hong Kong -1.11%, China -0.98%, Taiwan -0.28%, Australia +0.04%, Singapore -0.59%, South Korea -0.06%, India +0.23%. Chinese stocks fell after Premier Li Keqiang lowered China's 2015 GDP target to 7.0%, the lowest in more than 15 years, from 7.5% in 2014, and said "the difficulties we are to encounter in the year ahead may be even more formidable than those of last year." Commodity prices are mixed. Apr crude oil (CLJ15 +0.80%) is up +1.01% at a 1-1/2 week high after Libya's National Oil Corp. declared force majeure on oil supplies from 11 Libyan oil fields due to attacks on oil infrastructure from Islamic militants. Apr gasoline (RBJ15 -0.22%) is down -0.24%. Apr gold (GCJ15 +0.02%) is down -0.11%. May copper (HGK15 +0.15%) is up +0.17%. Agriculture prices are weaker. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.22%) is up +0.25% at an 11-1/3 year high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.23% at an 11-1/2 year low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.39%. Jun T-note prices (ZNM15 -0.05%) are down -2 ticks.German Jan factory orders fell -3.9% m/m, weaker than expectations of -1.0% m/m and the biggest monthly decline in 5 months. On an annual basis, Jan factory orders unexpectedly fell -0.1% y/y, weaker than expectations of +2.6% y/y.
UK Feb Halifax house prices fell -0.3% m/m and rose +8.3% y/y, weaker than expectations of -0.2% m/m and +8.5% y/y.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today’s Feb ADP employment report is expected to show a respectable increase of +220,000, stronger than the +213,000 increase seen in January. Today’s Feb ISM non-manufacturing index is expected to show a small -0.2 decline to 56.5, thus reversing January’s small +0.2 point increase to 56.7. The Fed today will release its Beige Book report ahead of the March 17-18 FOMC meeting. There are 3 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today: H&R Block (consensus $-0.17), Brown-Forman (0.86), PetSmart (1.37).Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Cowen & Co. Health Care Conference on Mon-Wed, Citigroup Global Property CEO Conference on Mon-Wed, Raymond James & Associates Institutional Investors Conference on Mon-Wed, Morgan Stanley Technology Media & Telecom Conference on Mon-Thu, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Consumer & Retail Conference on Tue-Wed, J.P. Morgan Aviation, Transportation and Industrials Conference on Tue-Thu, Mitsubishi UFJ Securities 3rd Annual Seattle Consumer Conference on Wed, Morgan Stanley European MedTech & Services Conference on Wed, Simmons Energy Conference on Wed, UBS Natural Gas, Electric Power and MLP Conference on Wed, UBS Utilities and Natural Gas Conference on Wed, UBS Global Consumer Conference on Wed-Thu, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Refining Conference on Thu, Barclays Investment Grade Energy & Pipeline Conference on Thu, Pacific Crest Emerging Technology Summit on Thu, Morgan Stanley MLP/Diversified Natural Gas, Utilities Clean Tech Conference on Thu.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Costo Wholesale (COST -0.14%) reported Q2 EPS of $1.25, more than consensus of $1.18.Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF -15.51%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Nomura.
Exxon Mobil (XOM -0.50%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Evercore ISI.
McDonald's (MCD +0.51%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Overweight' at Piper Jaffray.
Joy Global (JOY -1.95%) reported Q1 EPS of 25 cents, less than consensus of 36 cents, and then lowered guidance on fiscal 2015 adjusted EPS view to $2.50-$3.00 from $3.10-$3.50, well below consensus of $3.20.
Sprouts Farmers Markets (SFM -1.22%) filed to sell 15.85 million shares of common stock for holders.
Darling (DAR -0.23%) rose over 4% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 EPS of 42 cents, double consensus of 21 cents.
Pharmacyclics (PCYC +6.33%) jumped over 7% in pre-market trading after AbbVie agreed to buy the company fpr $21 billion.
Alon USA Partners (ALDW -0.06%) reported Q4 EPS of 67 cents, better than consensus of 60 cents.
Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY +6.06%) announced that the FDA has approved its Opdivo injection, for intravenous use, for the treatment of patients with metastatic squamous non-small cell lung cancer.
Coca-Cola Bottling (COKE -2.00%) reported Q4 EPS of 32 cents, higher than one estimate of 13 cents.
H&R Block (HRB -0.86%) reported a Q3 adjusted EPS loss of -13 cents, a smaller loss than consensus of -17 cents.
Roundy's (RNDY -0.25%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 7 cents, more than twice consensus of 3 cents.
MARKET COMMENTS
Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 +0.16%) this morning are up +2.50 points (+0.12%). The S&P 500 index on Wednesday tumbled to a 1-1/2 week low and closed lower: S&P 500 -0.44%, Dow Jones -0.58%, Nasdaq -0.30%. Bearish factors included (1) the +212,000 increase in Feb ADP employment, less than expectations of +220,000, (2) weakness in industrial companies led by a -5% plunge in Alcoa, and (3) a slide in transportation stocks after railroad companies sold off for a second day. Stocks recovered from their worst levels after the Feb ISM non-manufacturing index unexpectedly rose +0.2 to 56.9, stronger than expectations of -0.2 to 56.5.Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM15 -0.05%) this morning are down -2 ticks. Jun 10-year T-note futures prices on Wednesday recovered from a 1-week low and closed higher. Closes: TYM5 +3.00, FVM5 +3.50. Bullish factors included (1) the smaller-than-expected increase in Feb ADP employment, and (2) the fall in the S&P 500 to a 1-1/2 week low, which boosted the safe-haven demand for T-notes.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.22%) this morning is up +0.238 (+0.25%) at a fresh 11-1/3 year high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0025 (-0.23%) at an 11-1/2 year low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.47 (+0.39%). The dollar index on Wednesday soared to an 11-1/3 year high and closed higher: Dollar index +0.582 (+0.61%), EUR/USD -0.00975 (-0.87%), USD/JPY -0.063 (-0.05%). Bullish factors included (1) the stronger-than-expected Feb ISM non-manufacturing index, which should keep the Fed on track to raise interest rates later this year, and (2) weakness in EUR/USD/ which fell to a 11-1/3 year low after the Eurozone Feb Markit composite PMI was revised lower.
Apr WTI crude oil (CLJ15 +0.80%) this morning is up +52 cents (+1.01%) at a 1-1/2 week high and Apr gasoline (RBJ15 -0.22%) is down -0.0046 (-0.24%). Apr crude and Apr gasoline prices on Wednesday settled mixed: CLJ5 +1.01 (+2.00%), RBJ5 -0.0274 (-1.41%). Bearish factors included (1) a rally in the dollar index to an 11-1/3 year high, (2) the +10.3 million bbl increase in weekly EIA crude inventories to 444.4 million bbl, far higher than expectations of +4.0 million bbl, and (3) the +0.4% increase in U.S. crude production in the week ended Feb 27 to 9.324 million bpd, the most in over three decades. Crude oil recovered its losses and moved higher after the Fed Beige Book said the U.S. economy continued to expand from Jan through mid Feb.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR03/05/2015
| US | 0830 ET | Weekly initial unemployment claims expected -18,000 to 295,000, previous +31,000 to 313,000. Weekly continuing claims expected -6,000 to 2.395 million, previous 21,000 to 2.401 million. |
| 0830 ET | Revised Q4 non-farm productivity expected -2.3%, previous -1.8%. Revised Q4 unit labor costs expected +3.3%, previous +2.7%. | |
| 0830 ET | USDA weekly Export Sales. | |
| 1000 ET | Jan factory orders expected +0.2%, Dec -3.4%. | |
| 1000 ET | San Francisco Fed President John Williams speaks on the economic outlook at the CFA Society Hawaii Economic Forecast Dinner. | |
| 1100 ET | Treasury announces amount of 3-year T-notes (previous $24 billion), 10-year T-notes (previous $24 billion) and 30-year T-bonds (previous $16 billion) to be auctioned Mar 10-12. | |
| 1630 ET | Fed releases results of its latest bank stress tests. | |
| GER | 0200 ET | German Jan factory orders expected -1.0% m/m and +2.6% y/y, Dec +4.2% m/m and +3.4% y/y. |
| UK | 0400 ET | UK Feb new car registrations, Jan +6.7% y/y. |
| 0700 ET | BOE announces interest rate decision and asset purchase target, expected no change to the 0.50% benchmark rate or to the 375 billion pound asset purchase target. | |
| EUR | 0745 ET | ECB announces interest rate decision. |
| 0830 ET | ECB President Mario Draghi holds press conference following ECB meeting. |
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR03/05/2015
| Company | Ticker | Time | Event Description | Period | Estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joy Global Inc | JOY US | Bef-mkt | Q1 2015 Earnings Release | Q1 2015 | 0.361 |
| Kroger Co/The | KR US | Bef-mkt | Q4 2015 Earnings Release | Q4 2015 | 0.903 |
| Costco Wholesale Corp | COST US | Bef-mkt | Q2 2015 Earnings Release | Q2 2015 | 1.179 |
| L Brands Inc | LB US | 7:30 | February 2015 Sales and Revenue Call | 2015 | |
| Verisk Analytics Inc | VRSK US | 8:30 | Investor Day | Y 2015 | |
| MDU Resources Group Inc | MDU US | 9:00 | Investor & Analyst Meeting | Y 2015 | |
| TransDigm Group Inc | TDG US | 9:00 | Annual General Meeting | Y 2015 | |
| Kroger Co/The | KR US | 10:00 | Q4 2015 Earnings Call | Q4 2015 | |
| Greif Inc | GEF US | 10:00 | Q1 2015 Earnings Call | Q1 2015 | |
| Joy Global Inc | JOY US | 11:00 | Q1 2015 Earnings Call | Q1 2015 | |
| Costco Wholesale Corp | COST US | 11:00 | Q2 2015 Earnings Call | Q2 2015 | |
| WESCO International Inc | WCC US | 13:00 | Investor Day | Y 2015 | |
| Cooper Cos Inc/The | COO US | 16:00 | Q1 2015 Earnings Release | Q1 2015 | 1.535 |
| Fossil Group Inc | FOSL US | 16:00 | Investor Day | Y 2015 | |
| Cooper Cos Inc/The | COO US | 17:00 | Q1 2015 Earnings Call | Q1 2015 | |
| Pandora Media Inc | P US | 17:00 | Analyst & Investor Day | Y 2015 | |
| Paramount Group Inc | PGRE US | Aft-mkt | Q4 2014 Earnings Release | Q4 2014 | 0.18 |
| Equifax Inc | EFX US | Investor Meeting | Y 2015 | ||
| Gap Inc/The | GPS US | February 2015 Sales and Revenue Release | 2015 | ||
| L Brands Inc | LB US | February 2015 Sales and Revenue Release | 2015 | ||
| Rite Aid Corp | RAD US | February 2015 Sales and Revenue Release | 2015 | ||
| AmerisourceBergen Corp | ABC US | Annual General Meeting | |||
| Xcel Energy Inc | XEL US | Investor Meeting - New York | Y 2015 | ||
| Hospira Inc | HSP US | Trial begins-U.S. Ct of Appeals: Medicines Co. vs. Hospira Patent-Infringement | |||
| Riverbed Technology Inc | RVBD US | Special Meeting - M&A Vote |
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