Showing posts with label MAS. Show all posts
Showing posts with label MAS. Show all posts

Tuesday, July 26, 2016

MORNING CALL 7/26

MORNING CALL
OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU16 -0.08%) this morning are little changed as the market awaits tomorrow's outcome of the 2-day FOMC meeting that begins today. The chances are virtually zero for a Fed rate hike but the market is still a little nervous that the FOMC may adopt slightly more hawkish language in its post-meeting statement. The Euro Stoxx 50 index this morning is mildly lower by -0.19%. Japanese stocks today closed down -1.43% after Japanese Finance Aso poured cold water on hopes for a big fiscal stimulus program when he said that the government will "leave actual policy measures to the BOJ." Other Asian stock markets today closed mostly higher: Hong Kong +0.62%, China Shanghai +1.14%, Taiwan +0.37%, Australia +0.07%, Singapore +0.12%, South Korea +0.83%, India -0.42%, Turkey -0.48%.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.23%) this morning is mildly lower by -0.27% this morning. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0012 (+0.11%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is sharply lower by -1.42 yen (-1.34%) on Japanese Finance Minister Aso's comments that dampened hopes for an aggressive new round of Japanese fiscal stimulus. The BOJ meets later this week. Sterling is down -0.1% this morning after BOE MPC member Martin Weale said in an interview with the Financial Times that he favors immediate monetary stimulus because Brexit has shaken the UK economy more than he expected. The market is widely expecting the BOE at its meeting next week to cut interest rates by 25 bp from 0.50% in response to Brexit.
Sep 10-year T-note prices (ZNU16 +0.09%) this morning are up +3 ticks as the market awaits Wednesday's FOMC announcement.
Commodity prices this morning are little changed on net. Sep WTI crude oil (CLU16 -1.16%) is down -0.43 (-1.00%) and Sep gasoline (RBU16 -1.44%) is down -0.0174 (-1.30%) on a continued slide on high crude oil and product inventories and the 2-month rise in U.S. active oil rigs that will boost U.S. oil production. Metals prices are mixed with some support from the weaker dollar index. Aug gold (GCQ16 +0.01%) is up +0.9 (+0.07), Sep silver (SIU16+0.24%) is up +0.068 (+0.35%), and Sep copper (HGU16 -0.43%) is down -0.007 (-0.32%). Grains this morning are mixed with Dec corn down -0.25(-0.07%), Sep soybeans up +7.00 (+0.72%), and Sep wheat down -2.75 (-0.64%). Softs this morning are trading higher with some support from the weaker dollar: Oct sugar +0.11 (+0.55%), Sep coffee +1.10 (+0.78%), Sep cocoa +6 (+0.21%), and Dec cotton +0.35 (+0.48%).
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) May S&P/CaseShiller composite-20 home price index (expected +0.2% m/m and +5.6% y/y, Apr +0.45% m/m and +5.44% y/y), (2) prelim-Jul Markit services PMI (expected +0.6 to 52.0, Jun 51.4. Jul Markit composite PMI, Jun 51.2), (3) Jul consumer confidence from the Conference Board (expected -2.5 to 95.5, Jun +5.6 to 98.0), (4) Jul Richmond Fed manufacturing survey (expected +3 to -4, Jun -6 to -7), (5) Jun new home sales (expected +1.6% to 560,000, May -6.0% to 551,000), (6) FOMC begins 2-day meeting, and (7) Treasury auctions $34 billion of 5-year T-notes.
There are 46 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today with notable reports including: Apple (consensus $1.39), Caterpillar (0.96), Verizon (0.92), McDonalds (1.39), Under Amour (0.03).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: Kadmon Holdings (KDMN).
Equity conferences this week include: none.
Sep E-mini S&Ps this morning are little changed as the market awaits the results of the 2-day FOMC meeting that begins today. Monday's closes: S&P 500-0.30%, Dow Jones -0.42%, Nasdaq -0.05%. The S&P 500 on Monday closed lower on concern that the FOMC at its Tue-Wed meeting might adopt more hawkish language and on long liquidation pressure after the sharp rally seen in the first half of July. Stocks were also undercut by weakness in energy producers after the -2.4% sell-off in Sep crude oil prices.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
  • Today is a big day for earnings results with 46 of the SPX companies scheduled to report.
  • Positive earnings results so far this morning include du Pont (DD +0.66%) (1.24 vs consensus of 1.10), Centene (CNC -0.17%) (1.10 vs 1.09), Avery Denison (AVY -0.47%) (1.09 vs 1.01), Waters Corp (WAT -0.64%) (1.58 vs 1.45), DTE Energy (DTE -0.59%) (0.98 vs 0.89), United Technologies ({=UTX) (1.82 vs 1.68), Baxter (BAX -0.47%) (0.46 vs 0.40), Verizon (VZ -0.41%) (0.94 vs 0.92), Masco (MAS +1.30%) (0.46 vs 0.43), Fidelity National Information Services (FIS -0.10%) (0.90 vs 0.87), Valero (VLO +0.82%) (1.07 vs 0.99).
  • Negative earnings results this morning include Reynolds American (RAI +0.04%) (0.58 vs 0.61), Starwood (HOT +0.18%) (0.71 vs 0.73), KeyCorp (KEY-1.10%) (0.27 vs 0.28), Nielsen (NLSN -1.06%) (0.71 vs 0.715), and Under Armour (UA +1.73%) (0.01 vs 0.04).
  • Annheuser-Busch InBev (ABI Euronext) raised its offer for SABMiller Plc (SAB London) by 2.3% to 79 billion pounds to account for the Brexit-related plunge in sterling.
  • Commerzbank AG (CMZB) is down nearly 5% this morning after reporting a deterioration of a capital strength ratio and helped drag down other European banks ahead of Friday's stress-test results.
  • CoreLogic (CLGX -0.69%) rallied +6% in after-hours trading on positive earnings results along with higher 2016 guidance and a boost in full-year repurchase target.
  • Texas Instruments (TXN +1.11%) rallied +5% in after-hours trading on positive earnings results of 76 cents vs expectations of 72 cents.
  • Celgene (CELG +0.38%) fell -3% in after-hours trading on disappointing news about its "Remarc" product.
  • Las Vegas Sands (LVS +1.01%) rallied +3% in after-hours trading despite weaker-than-expected earnings results as the company indicated a possible turnaround in Macau.
  • Gilead Sciences (GILD +2.31%) fell -4% in after-hours trading after reducing its 2016 sales forecast.
  • MB Financial (MBFI +0.26%) will replace First Niagra (FNFG) in the S&P MidCap 400.
MARKET COMMENTS
Sep 10-year T-note prices this morning up 3 ticks. Monday's closes: TYU6 -2, FVU6 -3. Sep 10-year T-notes on Monday closed mildly lower on supply overhang amidst this week's $103 billion T-note package and on some concern that the FOMC at its Tue-Wed meeting might adopt more hawkish language in its post-meeting statement. T-notes found some support from the mild sell-off in stocks and on the -2.6% drop in crude oil prices, which pushed the 10-year breakeven inflation expectations rate lower by -2 bp to 1.50%.
The dollar index this morning is mildly lower by -0.27% mainly due to yen strength as USD/JPY fell sharply by -1.42 yen (-1.34%) on reduced hopes for a large Japanese fiscal stimulus package. Monday's closes: Dollar index -0.18 (-0.19%), EUR/USD +0.0018 (+0.16%), USD/JPY -0.32 (-0.30%). The dollar index on Monday edged to a new 4-1/2 month high but fell back and closed mildly lower. The dollar was undercut by some long liquidation pressure in the dollar index after posting a new 4-1/2 month high. In addition, EUR/USD saw some strength on the stronger-than-expected German IFO business climate index, which fell -0.4 points to 108.3, stronger than market expectations of -1.2 to 107.5. The dollar index found some support on the possibility that the FOMC in its post-meeting statement to be released on Wednesday might adopt slightly more hawkish language.
Sep WTI crude oil is down -0.43 (-1.00%) and Sep gasoline is down -0.0174 (-1.30%) on a continued slide on high crude oil and product inventories and the 2-month rise in U.S. active oil rigs that will boost U.S. oil production. Monday's closes: CLU6 -1.06 (-2.40%), RBU6 -0.0280 (-2.06%). Sep crude oil and gasoline closed sharply lower on Monday on technical selling with a new 3-month low in Sep crude oil and on carry-over pressure from last Friday's Baker Hughes report that the number of active U.S. oil rigs rose by +14 rigs to 371, bringing the 8-week upward rebound to a total of +55 rigs (+17.4%).
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR07/26/2016
Tuesday, July 26
US0900 ETMay S&P/CaseShiller composite-20 home price index expected +0.2% m/m and +5.6% y/y, Apr +0.45% m/m and +5.44% y/y.
0945 ETPrelim-Jul Markit services PMI expected +0.6 to 52.0, Jun 51.4. Jul Markit composite PMI, Jun 51.2.
1000 ETJul consumer confidence (Conference Board) expected -2.5 to 95.5, Jun +5.6 to 98.0.
1000 ETJul Richmond Fed manufacturing survey expected +3 to -4, Jun -6 to -7.
1000 ETJun new home sales expected +1.6% to 560,000, May -6.0% to 551,000.
1030 ETFOMC begins 2-day meeting.
1300 ETTreasury auctions $34 billion of 5-year T-notes.
CHI2130 ETChina Jun industrial profits, Jun +3.7% y/y.
2145 ETChina Jul Westpac-MNI consumer sentiment, Jun +1.7 to 115.9.
Wednesday, July 27
US0700 ETWeekly MBA mortgage applications, previous -1.3% with purchase sub-index -2.0% and refi sub-index down -0.9%.
0830 ETJun durable goods orders expected -1.1% and +0.3% ex-transportation, May -2.3% and -0.3% ex-transportation. Jun capital goods orders nondefense ex-aircraft expected +0.4%, May -0.4%.
1000 ETJun pending home sales expected +1.2% m/m and +3.0% y/y, May -3.7% m/m and +2.4% y/y.
1030 ETEIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
1130 ETTreasury auctions $15 billion of 2-year floating-rate notes.
1400 ETFOMC announces interest rate decision; 0.25%-0.50% fed funds rate target expected unchanged.
GER0200 ETGerman Jun import price index expected +0.6% m/m and -4.6% y/y, May +0.9% m/m and -5.5% y/y.
0200 ETGerman Aug GfK consumer confidence expected -0.2 to 9.9, Jul +0.3 to 10.1.
EUR0400 ETEurozone Jun M3 money supply, May +4.9% y/y.
UK0430 ETUK Q2 GDP expected +0.5% q/q and +2.1% y/y, Q1 +0.4% q/q and +2.0% y/y.
0430 ETUK May index of services expected +0.1% m/m and +0.3% 3-mo/3-mo, Apr +0.6% m/m and +0.5% 3-mo/3-mo.
0600 ETUK Jul CBI retailing reported sales expected -3 to 1, Jun -3 to 4
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR07/26/2016
CompanyTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Baxter International IncBAXBef-mktQ2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20160.396
Freeport-McMoRan IncFCXBef-mktQ2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 2016-0.008
TEGNA IncTGNABef-mktQ2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20160.474
McDonald's CorpMCDBef-mktQ2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20161.385
United Technologies CorpUTXBef-mktQ2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20161.681
KeyCorpKEYBef-mktQ2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20160.276
Waters CorpWATBef-mktQ2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20161.447
Valero Energy CorpVLOBef-mktQ2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20160.993
Reynolds American IncRAIBef-mktQ2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20160.608
DTE Energy CoDTEBef-mktQ2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20160.888
Fidelity National Information Services IncFISBef-mktQ2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20160.867
Nielsen Holdings PLCNLSNBef-mktQ2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20160.716
EI du Pont de Nemours & CoDD6:00Q2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20161.101
Centene CorpCNC6:00Q2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20161.084
Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide IncHOT6:30Q2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20160.733
Eli Lilly & CoLLY6:30Q2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20160.856
Avery Dennison CorpAVY6:45Q2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20161.014
Masco CorpMAS7:00Q2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20160.426
Under Armour IncUA7:15Q2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20160.032
Verizon Communications IncVZ7:30Q2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20160.921
Caterpillar IncCAT7:30Q2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20160.959
3M CoMMM7:30Q2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20162.063
T Rowe Price Group IncTROW7:30Q2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20160.725
EI du Pont de Nemours & CoDD8:00Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
Masco CorpMAS8:00Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
PACCAR IncPCAR8:00Q2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20161.023
Waters CorpWAT8:00Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
Nielsen Holdings PLCNLSN8:00Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
Baxter International IncBAX8:30Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
Verizon Communications IncVZ8:30Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
United Technologies CorpUTX8:30Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
Express Scripts Holding CoESRX8:30Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
Centene CorpCNC8:30Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
Fidelity National Information Services IncFIS8:30Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
Under Armour IncUA8:30Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
Eli Lilly & CoLLY9:00Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
3M CoMMM9:00Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
KeyCorpKEY9:00Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
Reynolds American IncRAI9:00Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
DTE Energy CoDTE9:00Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
Freeport-McMoRan IncFCX10:00Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
TEGNA IncTGNA10:00Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
Legg Mason IncLM10:00Annual General Meeting
Avery Dennison CorpAVY11:00Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
Caterpillar IncCAT11:00Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
McDonald's CorpMCD11:00Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
AvalonBay Communities IncAVB11:00Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
Valero Energy CorpVLO11:00Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
PACCAR IncPCAR12:00Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
Akamai Technologies IncAKAM16:01Q2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20160.636
Anadarko Petroleum CorpAPC16:05Q2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 2016-0.743
Robert Half International IncRHI16:15Q2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20160.733
Edwards Lifesciences CorpEW16:15Q2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20160.699
Ameriprise Financial IncAMP16:15Q2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20162.26
Apple IncAAPL16:30Q3 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20161.389
Akamai Technologies IncAKAM16:30Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
CR Bard IncBCR17:00Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
Robert Half International IncRHI17:00Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
Total System Services IncTSS17:00Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
Apple IncAAPL17:00Q3 2016 Earnings CallQ3 2016
Illumina IncILMN17:00Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
Juniper Networks IncJNPR17:00Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
Edwards Lifesciences CorpEW17:00Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
CR Bard IncBCRAft-mktQ2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20162.469
Total System Services IncTSSAft-mktQ2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20160.72
UDR IncUDRAft-mktQ2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20160.442
Universal Health Services IncUHSAft-mktQ2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20161.938
Cincinnati Financial CorpCINFAft-mktQ2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20160.467
Linear Technology CorpLLTCAft-mktQ4 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20160.534
Range Resources CorpRRCAft-mktQ2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 2016-0.185
Zions BancorporationZIONAft-mktQ2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20160.411
Chubb LtdCBAft-mktQ2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20162.211
Equity ResidentialEQRAft-mktQ2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20160.76
Citrix Systems IncCTXSAft-mktQ2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20161.142
CH Robinson Worldwide IncCHRWAft-mktQ2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20161.003
Illumina IncILMNAft-mktQ2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20160.733
Juniper Networks IncJNPRAft-mktQ2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20160.47
Assurant IncAIZAft-mktQ2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20161.388
Citrix Systems IncCTXS17:15Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
Zions BancorporationZION17:30Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
Boston Properties IncBXP18:00Q2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20161.391
Alaska Air Group IncALKExtraordinary Shareholders MeetingY 2016

Monday, May 9, 2016

MORNING CALL 5/9

MORNING CALL

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
Jun E-mini S&Ps (ESM16 +0.29%) are up +0.24% and European stocks are up +1.48% as a +2.15% rally in crude oil (CLM16 +1.34%) boosts energy producing stocks. The ongoing wildfire in Alberta, Canada has cut Canadian oil production by about 1 million bpd and has underpinned oil prices. Another positive for European stocks was the bigger-than-expected increase in Eurozone May Sentix investor confidence. On the negative side, however, copper prices (HGN16 -1.51%) dropped -1.53% to a 3-1/2 week low which has undercut mining stocks with Rio Tinto Group and Glencore Plc both down at last 3%. In addition, China Apr exports unexpectedly fell and China Apr imports fell for the 18th month in a row. Asian stocks settled mixed: Japan +0.68%, Hong Kong +0.23%, China -2.79%, Taiwan -0.18%, Australia +0.54%, Singapore +1.29%, South Korea -0.44%, India +1.82%. Chinese stocks were pressured by the weak Chinese trade data as the Shanghai Composite fell to a 1-3/4 month low, while Japanese stocks finished higher as exporters rallied after USD/JPY climbed to a 1-week high, which improves the earnings prospects of exporter companies.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.19%) is up +0.13% at a 1-week high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.13% at a 1-week low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.88% at a 1-week high.
Jun T-note prices (ZNM16 +0.12%) are up +1.5 ticks.
Speaking at the International Financial Services Forum in London, Chicago Fed President Evans said that U.S. economic fundamentals are "good" and "wait and see" stance for monetary policy is appropriate. He said the U.S. economy should grow at a 2.5% pace for the rest of 2016, which "should support a gradual resumption of U.S. policy rate increases later this year."
New York Fed President Dudley said that while Friday's U.S. employment report was "a touch softer," it won't affect his economic outlook and that it remains a "reasonable expectation" that the Fed will raise interest rates twice this year.
The Eurozone May Sentix investor confidence rose +0.5 to 6.2, stronger than expectations of +0.3 to 6.0.
The China Apr trade balance widened to a surplus of +$45.56 billion, bigger than expectations of +$40.00 billion. Apr exports unexpectedly fell -1.8%y/y weaker than expectations of no change, and Apr imports fell -10.9% y/y, weaker than expectations of -4.0% y/y.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks on a panel with ECB Vice President Vitor Constancio at the International Financial Services Forum in London, (2) Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari speaks at an Economic Club of Minnesota luncheon.
There are 6 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today: Tyson Foods (consensus $0.96), HCP (0.69), AES (0.20), Xcel Energy (0.47), International Flavors & Fragrances (1.40), Dun & Bradstreet (0.97).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: none.
Equity conferences this week include: Morgan Stanley E&P and Oil Services Conference on Mon, Deutsche Bank Clean Tech, Utilities and Power Conference on Mon, Goldman Sachs Global Staples Forum on Tue, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Metals, Mining & Steel Conference on Tue, Credit Suisse REIT Conference on Tue, Wells Fargo Securities Gaming, Leisure & Restaurants Conference on Tue, Sterne Agee CRT Business Services Conference on Tue, The Boston Industrial and Environmental Services Conference on Tue, Citi Global Energy and Utilities Conference on Tue-Wed, Oppenheimer Industrial Growth Conference on Tue-Wed, Wells Fargo Industrial and Construction Conference on Tue-Wed, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Health Care Conference on Tue-Thu, Jefferies Technology, Media and Telecom Conference on Wed-Thu, Mitsubishi UFJ Oil & Gas Conference on Thu, Morgan Stanley Refining Corporate Access Day on Thu, RBC Capital Markets Aerospace & Defense Investor Day on Thu.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Tyson Foods (TSN +1.31%) rose nearly 3% in pre-market trading after it reported Q2 adjusted EPS of $1.07, higher than consensus of 96 cents, and then raised guidance on full-year adjusted EPS to $4.20-$4.30 from a prior estimate of $3.85-$3.95, above consensus of $4.06.
Altria Group (MO +0.14%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Argus Research with a price target of $68.
LabStyle Innovations (DRIO +3.45%) was rated a new 'Buy' at Rodman & Renshaw with a 12-month price target of $12.
Silver Wheaton (SLW +2.74%) reported Q1 EPS of 10 cents, below consensus of 12 cents.
LendingClub (LC +3.65%) slumped 16% in pre-market trading after CEO Renaud Laplanch resigned following an internal review of $22 million in near-prime loans to a single investor.
Flotek Industries (FTK +1.13%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Speculative Buy' ay Seaport Global Securities with a 12-month price target of $13.
Comerica (CMA unch) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at Raymond James.
Kronos Worldwide (KRO +4.38%) reported a Q1 EPS loss of -3 cents, a smaller loss than consensus of -13 cents,
Apollo Education Group (APOL +1.47%) climbed nearly 2% in after-hours trading after Apollo Education shareholders approved a $10 a share offer from a group led by Apollo Global Management.
Beazer Homes (BZH +0.42%) gained over 1% in after-hours trading after the chairman of the company, Stephen Zelnak, disclosed a purchase of 55,000 shares May 4-5.
NorthStar Realty Finance (NRF +2.28%) jumped almost 6% in after-hours trading after Colony Capital said it is in exclusive negotiations with NorthStar Asset Management Group and NRF for a tri-party all stock "at the market" business combination.
NorthStar Asset Management Group (NSAM +1.01%) surged over 15% in after-hours trading after Colony Capital said it is in exclusive negotiations with NSAM and NorthStar Realty for a tri-party all stock "at the market" business combination.
MARKET COMMENTS
June E-mini S&Ps (ESM16 +0.29%) this morning are up +5.00 points (+0.24%). Friday's closes: S&P 500 +0.32%, Dow Jones +0.45%, Nasdaq +0.48%. The S&P 500 on Friday rebounded from a 1-month low and closed higher on reduced interest rate concerns as the weaker than expected U.S. Apr non-farm payrolls may keep the Fed from raising interest rates this year. Stocks also received a boost from the +$29.647 billion increase in U.S. Mar consumer credit, much stronger than expectations of +$16.0 billion and the largest increase on record (data from 1943). Stocks were undercut by the weak +160,000 April payroll report and by Friday's -2.82% drop in the Shanghai Composite to a 2-week low.
June 10-year T-note prices (ZNM16 +0.12%) this morning are up +1.5 ticks. Friday's closes: TYM6 -6.50, FVM6 -3.50. Jun T-notes on Friday retreated from a 3-1/2 week high and closed lower on reduced safe-haven demand after stocks recovered from an early 1-month low. T-notes initially rallied to a 3-1/2 week high after U.S. Apr non-farm payrolls rose less than expected.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.19%) this morning is up +0.126 (+0.13% at a 1-week high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0015 (-0.13%) at a 1-week low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.94 (+0.88%) at a 1-week high. Friday's closes: Dollar Index +0.601 (+0.64%), EUR/USD -0.0001 (-0.01%), USD/JPY-0.14 (-0.13%). The dollar index on Friday closed higher on the stronger-than-expected U.S. Apr average hourly earnings report and the stronger-than-expected U.S. Mar consumer credit report of +$29.674 billion.
June WTI crude oil (CLM16 +1.34%) this morning is up +96 cents (+2.15%). June gasoline (RBM16 +0.29%) is up +0.0126 (+0.84%). Friday's closes: CLM6 +0.34 (+0.77%), RBM6 +0.0048 (+0.32%). Jun crude oil and gasoline on Friday recovered from early losses and closed higher on the outlook for reduced U.S. oil production after Baker Hughes reported a -4 rig drop in the number of active U.S. oil rigs to a 6-1/2 year low of 328 rigs. Gains were limited by the weak U.S. payroll report.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR05/09/2016
US0510 ETChicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks on a panel with ECB Vice President Vitor Constancio at the International Financial Services Forum in London.
1100 ETUSDA weekly grain export inspections.
1300 ETMinneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari speaks at an Economic Club of Minnesota luncheon.
1600 ETUSDA Weekly Crop Progress.
JPN0100 ETJapan Apr consumer confidence index expected -1.0 to 40.7, Mar 41.7.
GER0200 ETGerman Mar factory orders expected +0.6% m/m and +0.1% y/y, Feb -1.2% m/m and +0.5% y/y.
EUR0430 ETEurozone May Sentix investor confidence expected +0.3 to 6.0, Apr 5.7.
UK0330 ETUK Apr Halifax house prices expected -0.3% m/m and +9.6% 3-mon y/y, Mar +2.6% m/m and +10.1% 3-mon y/y.
1901 ETUK Apr BRC sales like-for-like expected +0.5% y/y, Mar -0.7% y/y.
CHI2130 ETChina Apr CPI expected +2.3% y/y, Mar +2.3% y/y. Apr PPI expected -3.7% y/y, Mar -4.3% y/y.
n/aChina Apr new yuan loans expected +815.0 billion yuan, Mar +1.37 trillion yuan.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR05/09/2016
CompanyTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
HCP IncHCP USBef-mktQ1 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20160.69
AES Corp/VAAES USBef-mktQ1 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20160.203
Xcel Energy IncXEL USBef-mktQ1 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20160.465
Tyson Foods IncTSN US7:30Q2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20160.955
Pitney Bowes IncPBI US9:00Annual General MeetingY 2016
AES Corp/VAAES US9:00Q1 2016 Earnings CallQ1 2016
Tyson Foods IncTSN US9:00Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
Masco CorpMAS US10:00Annual General Meeting
Xcel Energy IncXEL US10:00Q1 2016 Earnings CallQ1 2016
Martin Marietta Materials IncMLM US11:00Analyst and Investor DayY 2016
HCP IncHCP US12:00Q1 2016 Earnings CallQ1 2016
International Paper CoIP US12:00Annual General Meeting
Baxter International IncBAX US13:00Investor ConferenceY 2016
Gap Inc/TheGPS US16:15April 2016 Sales and Revenue Release2016
International Flavors & Fragrances IncIFF USAft-mktQ1 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20161.4
Dun & Bradstreet Corp/TheDNB USAft-mktQ1 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20160.969

Tuesday, July 28, 2015

BARCHART MORNING CALL 7/28

BARCHART MORNING CALL

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 +0.48%) this morning are up +0.52% and the EuroStoxx 50 index is up +1.35% on relief that the Chinese stock market today closed only -1.68% lower. U.S. and European stock indexes are also higher today on positive European takeover news today in the European pharma, utility and insurance industries. In one of the $15 billion worth of deals announced today, Melrose Industries Plc is up 10% after a deal to sell its metering-company Elster to Honeywell for $3.3 billion in cash. In another European deal announced today, Hikma Pharmaceutricals Plc announced that it agreed to buy Boehringer Ingelheim GmbH's Roxane business for $2.7 billion. Mining companies are higher in European trading after the sharp sell-off seen in the past 1-1/2 weeks.
The Chinese Shanghai Composite index on Monday plunged by -8.5% and was down by -5.1% on today's low, but the market was able to recover somewhat during the remainder of the session to close the day down by only -1.68%. The markets remain concerned that the Chinese government may have given up on some of its support measures but so far the Shanghai index has been able to remain well above the 4-1/2 month low posted on July 9. The markets were somewhat relieved that the Chinese Securities Regulatory Commission late Monday released a statement on its website saying that the agency will continue to "stabilize" the market and "prevent systemic risk." Chinese stocks are down sharply this week on weekend news that the China July Markit flash manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell by -1.2 points to a 15-month low of 48.2 and that Chinese June industrial profits fell by -0.3% y/y.
Asian stocks today closed mixed despite continued bearish overhang from the Chinese stock market: Japan -0.10%, Hong Kong +0.62%, China -1.68%, Taiwan +0.30%, Australia -0.09%, Singapore -0.98%, South Korea +0.09%, India -0.37%, Turkey +1.37%.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.47%) this morning is up +0.406 (+0.42%) as some confidence returns with the upward rebound in U.S. and European stock indexes. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0056 (-0.51%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.51 (+0.41%). Sep 10-year T-note prices (ZNU15 -0.17%) are down 9 ticks on reduced safe-haven demand with the upward rebound in the U.S. and European stock indexes.
Commodity prices are little changed on net this morning. Sep crude oil (CLU15 -0.55%) is down -0.34 (-0.72%), Sep Brent is down -0.73 (-1.37%), and Sep gasoline (RBU15 -1.22%) is down -0.0227 (-1.28%) as concerns continue about a worsening glut later this year if Iranian sanctions are dropped as expected. Precious metals are down on the upward rebound in the dollar index today with Aug gold (GCQ15 -0.39%) down -4.9 (-0.45%) and Sep silver (SIU15 -0.62%) down -0.040 (-0.27%). However, Sep copper (HGU15 +1.00%) is up +0.024 (+1.02%) on some relief that global stock markets have stabilized today. Grains are mixed today after yesterday's sharp declines. Sugar, cocoa and cotton are trading higher this morning but cocoa is mildly lower.
Today's UK Q2 GDP report of +0.7% q/q and +2.6% y/y was in line with market expectations and the quarter-on-quarter report of +0.7% strengthened from Q1's report of +0.4% q/q.
Greek bailout negotiations are scheduled to begin today in Athens as technical experts from the ECB, EC and IMF meet with their Greek counterparts. EU officials said today there is "no fixed deadline" for an agreement but that they see a deal in the second half of August. Meanwhile a dispute has arisen whether the Greek parliament must take additional measures to qualify for the bailout with the EU Commission saying that more measures will be necessary while the Greek Finance Ministry says that all measures have been taken. However, the Greek finance minister today said that Greece will fully implement the Eurogroup agreements to the last detail.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) May S&P-CaseShiller composite-20 home price index (expected +0.3% m/m and +5.6% y/y after April's +0.30% m/m and +4.91% y/y), (2) preliminary-July Markit services PMI (expected +0.2 to 55.0 after June's -1.4 to 54.8), (3) July U.S. consumer confidence index from the Conference Board (expected -1.4 to 100.0 after June's +6.8 to 101.4), (4) Jul Richmond Fed manufacturing index (expected +1 to 7 after June's +5 to 6), and (5) the Treasury's auction of $26 billion of 2-year T-notes.
There are 41 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today with notable reports including: UPS (consensus $1.26), Ford (0.37), Du Pont (1.22), Nielsen (0.64), Merck (0.81), Cummings (2.55), Pfizer (0.52), Citrix (0.82).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today include: EyeGate Pharmaceuticals (EYEG), Builders FirstSource (BLDR).
Equity conferences this week: none.

Sep E-mini S&Ps this morning are up +0.52% on European takeover deals and relief that the Chinese stock market was able to stabilize today. Monday's closes: S&P 500 -0.58%, Dow Jones -0.73%, Nasdaq -0.96%. The S&P 500 on Monday extended last week’s losses to post a new 2-week low on the -8.5% plunge in the Shanghai index and technical selling ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting, which could produce a more hawkish FOMC post-meeting statement warning of a Fed rate hike as soon as the next meeting in September.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
  • Baidu Inc (BIDU -4.16%) is down more than 7% in pre-market trading after the biggest Chinese search engine company missed its quarterly sales estimates. In addition, Deutsche bank today downgraded Baidu to Hold from Buy due to expectations for reduced profit margins on a "massive" increase in spending costs.
  • SPX earnings reports this morning have been a bit better than expected on balance. Positive reports include Corning (GLW -0.70%) ($0.38 vs consensus of $0.37), Airgas (ARG -1.72%) (1.16 vs 1.15), Textron (TXT -1.41%) (0.60 vs 0.59), Wyndham (WYN -1.76%) (1.32 vs 1.26), Nielsen (NLSN -0.82%) (0.66 vs 0.64), Reynolds American (RAI -0.45%) (1.02 vs 0.96), Ford (F +1.11%) (0.47 vs 0.37), Merck (MRK -0.73%) (0.86 vs 0.81), Pfizer (PFE +0.23%) (0.56 vs 0.52), DR Horton (DHI +0.04%) (0.63 vs 0.50), Waters (WAT -0.66%) (1.32 vs 1.27), National Oilwell Varco (NOV -1.35%) (0.77 vs 0.64), Cummins (CMI -0.47%) (2.62 vs 2.55).
  • Negative earnings reports this morning include: Precision Castparts (PCP -0.72%) (2.87 vs 3.00), du Pont (DD -0.37%) (1.18 vs 1.21), CONSOL Energy (CNX -1.64%) (-0.37 vs 0.0), Intersoll-Rand (IR -1.52%) (1.20 vs 1.23), Marsh & McLennan (MMC -0.31%) (0.79 vs 0.794), Lab Corp of America (LH -0.38%) (1.79 vs 2.03), Masco (MAS -0.90%) (0.31 vs 0.34).
  • GM (GM -0.03%) will spend $5 billion in global growth markets, according to the Financial Times.
  • Procter & Gamble (PG -0.40%) will name David Taylor as next CEO, according to Dow Jones.
MARKET COMMENTS
Sep 10-year T-note prices are down 9 ticks on reduced safe-haven demand with the upward rebound in the U.S. and European stock indexes. Monday's closes: TYU5 +14, FVU5 +9. Sep T-notes on Monday rallied to a 2-1/2 week high on the mixed U.S. durable goods orders report that featured downward revisions for May, and on increased safe-haven demand as the Chinese stock market threatened to resume its free-fall and as the U.S. Dow Jones Industrials index fell to a new 6-month low.
The dollar index this morning is up +0.406 (+0.42%) as some confidence returns with the upward rebound in U.S. and European stock indexes. EUR/USD is down -0.0056 (-0.51%) and USD/JPY is up +0.51 (+0.41%). Monday's closes: Dollar Index -0.710 (-0.73%), EUR/USD +0.0104 (+0.95%), USD/JPY -0.56 (-0.45%). The dollar index on Monday settled with a fairly sharp loss on long liquidation pressure in the dollar index after its sharp month-long rally, the reduced chance for Fed tightening as Chinese stocks plunged on Monday, and strength in EUR/USD as the chances for Grexit diminish as negotiations begin on Tuesday on the 3-year Greek bailout.
Sep crude oil is down -0.34 (-0.72%), Sep Brent is down -0.73 (-1.37%), and Sep gasoline is down -0.0227 (-1.28%) as concerns continue about a worsening glut later this year as Iranian oil exports step up. Monday's closes: CLU5 -0.75 (-1.56%), RBU5 -0.0158 (-0.89%). Sep crude oil and gasoline on Monday closed sharply lower on the plunge in the Chinese stock market and renewed concern about the Chinese economy and on ongoing worries that the world oil glut will worsen as Iran rebuilds its oil exports later this year if sanctions are dropped in December as expected.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR07/28/2015
US0900 ETMay S&P/CaseShiller composite-20 home price index expected +0.3% m/m and +5.6% y/y, Apr +0.30% m/m and +4.91% y/y.
0945 ETPreliminary Jul Markit services PMI expected +0.2 to 55.0, Jun -1.4 to 54.8. Preliminary Jul Markit composite PMI, Jun -1.4 to 54.6.
1000 ETJul consumer confidence (Conference Board) expected -1.4 to 100.0, Jun +6.8 to 101.4.
1000 ETJul Richmond Fed manufacturing outlook survey expected +1 to 7, Jun +5 to 6.
1300 ETTreasury auctions $26 billion of 2-year T-notes.
UK0430 ETUK Q2 GDP expected +0.7% q/q and +2.6% y/y, Q1 +0.4% q/q and +2.9% y/y.
0430 ETUK May index of services expected +0.3% m/m and +0.5% 3-mo/3-mo, Apr +0.2% m/m and +0.5% 3-mo/3-mo.
JPN1950 ETJapan Jun retail sales expected -0.9% m/m and +1.0% y/y, May +1.7% m/m and +3.0% y/y.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR07/28/2015
CompanyTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Airgas IncARG USBef-mktQ1 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20161.154
Corning IncGLW USBef-mktQ2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20150.369
Ecolab IncECL USBef-mktQ2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20151.079
Jacobs Engineering Group IncJEC USBef-mktQ3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20150.741
Marsh & McLennan Cos IncMMC USBef-mktQ2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20150.794
Merck & Co IncMRK USBef-mktQ2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20150.81
Laboratory Corp of America HoldingsLH USBef-mktQ2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20152.033
Precision Castparts CorpPCP USBef-mktQ1 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20163.002
Textron IncTXT USBef-mktQ2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20150.589
Waters CorpWAT USBef-mktQ2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20151.271
Affiliated Managers Group IncAMG USBef-mktQ2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20153.017
Reynolds American IncRAI USBef-mktQ2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20150.964
LyondellBasell Industries NVLYB USBef-mktQ2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20152.717
Nielsen NVNLSN USBef-mktQ2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20150.639
EI du Pont de Nemours & CoDD US6:00Q2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20151.217
Wyndham Worldwide CorpWYN US6:30Q2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20151.258
CONSOL Energy IncCNX US6:45Q2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20150.007
Ford Motor CoF US7:00Q2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20150.368
Ingersoll-Rand PLCIR US7:00Q2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20151.223
Masco CorpMAS US7:00Q2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20150.343
Pfizer IncPFE US7:00Q2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20150.518
DR Horton IncDHI US7:00Q3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20150.499
National Oilwell Varco IncNOV US7:00Q2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20150.646
Cummins IncCMI US7:30Q2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20152.554
United Parcel Service IncUPS US7:45Q2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20151.264
Masco CorpMAS US8:00Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
Merck & Co IncMRK US8:00Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
Textron IncTXT US8:00Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
PACCAR IncPCAR US8:00Q2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20151.153
Eastman Chemical CoEMN US8:00Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
Nielsen NVNLSN US8:00Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
Corning IncGLW US8:30Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
Marsh & McLennan Cos IncMMC US8:30Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
United Parcel Service IncUPS US8:30Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
Waters CorpWAT US8:30Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
Wyndham Worldwide CorpWYN US8:30Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
EI du Pont de Nemours & CoDD US9:00Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
Ford Motor CoF US9:00Q2 2015 Earnings CallC2 2015
Laboratory Corp of America HoldingsLH US9:00Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
Hartford Financial Services Group Inc/TheHIG US9:00Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
National Oilwell Varco IncNOV US9:00Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
Reynolds American IncRAI US9:00Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
Airgas IncARG US10:00Q1 2016 Earnings CallQ1 2016
Cummins IncCMI US10:00Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
Ingersoll-Rand PLCIR US10:00Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
Pfizer IncPFE US10:00Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
Southwestern Energy CoSWN US10:00Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
DR Horton IncDHI US10:00Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
CONSOL Energy IncCNX US10:00Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
Ford Motor CoF US11:00Q2 2015 Earnings Call - Fixed IncomeQ2 2015
Jacobs Engineering Group IncJEC US11:00Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Precision Castparts CorpPCP US11:00Q1 2016 Earnings CallQ1 2016
Torchmark CorpTMK US11:00Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
AvalonBay Communities IncAVB US11:00Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
Affiliated Managers Group IncAMG US11:00Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
LyondellBasell Industries NVLYB US11:00Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
Intel CorpINTC US12:00Analyst MeetingY 2015
PACCAR IncPCAR US12:00Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
Ecolab IncECL US13:00Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
Total System Services IncTSS US16:00Q2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20150.535
Edwards Lifesciences CorpEW US16:00Q2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20151.051
Gilead Sciences IncGILD US16:05Q2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20152.705
Citrix Systems IncCTXS US16:05Q2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20150.821
American Express CoAXP US16:30Q2 2015 Earnings Call - Fixed Income CallC2 2015
Gilead Sciences IncGILD US16:30Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
Akamai Technologies IncAKAM US16:30Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
Citrix Systems IncCTXS US16:45Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
Total System Services IncTSS US17:00Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
Edwards Lifesciences CorpEW US17:00Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
Aflac IncAFL USAft-mktQ2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20151.524
Anadarko Petroleum CorpAPC USAft-mktQ2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 2015-0.53
AGL Resources IncGAS USAft-mktQ2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20150.428
Kimco Realty CorpKIM USAft-mktQ2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20150.381
Cincinnati Financial CorpCINF USAft-mktQ2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20150.41
Express Scripts Holding CoESRX USAft-mktQ2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20151.401
Range Resources CorpRRC USAft-mktQ2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20150.033
Equity ResidentialEQR USAft-mktQ2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20150.855
CH Robinson Worldwide IncCHRW USAft-mktQ2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20150.863
Akamai Technologies IncAKAM USAft-mktQ2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20150.582
Assurant IncAIZ USAft-mktQ2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20151.603
Ball CorpBLL USExtraordinary Shareholders Meeting - M&A VoteY 2015
Equifax IncEFX USInvestors Meeting - Kansas CityY 2015
Legg Mason IncLM USAnnual General MeetingY 2015
Pall CorpPLL USSpecial Meeting - M&A Vote