Morning Call 8/22

Barchart Morning Call

Barchart.com - Tue Aug 22, 6:36AM CDT

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU17 +0.13%) this morning are up +0.07% and European stocks are up +0.47%, led by a rally in mining stocks, as Sep COMEX copper (HGU17 +0.70%) climbs +0.67% to a new 2-3/4 year nearest-futures high. Gains in European stocks were limited after a gauge of German investor confidence fell to a 10-month low. The German Aug ZEW survey expectations of economic growth fell -7.5 to 10.0, weaker than expectations of -2.5 to 15.0, amid concern that the diesel scandal at Volkswagen AG along with recent strength in EUR/USD will weigh on the German economy, Europe's largest. Asian stocks settled mostly higher: Japan -0.05%, Hong Kong +0.91%, China +0.10%, Taiwan +0.64%, Australia +0.42%, Singapore +0.52%, South Korea +0.39%, India +0.11%. China's Shanghai Composite erased early losses and rose to a 2-1/2 week high on optimism that Chinese insurance stocks and pharmaceutical companies will report better-than-expected quarterly earnings results. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index fell to a new 3-1/2 month low on a lack of support for stocks in the Nikkei Stock Index as the BOJ has said it will reduce investments in the Nikkei Stock Index and buy more exchange-traded funds tracking the Topix index.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.43%) is up +0.45%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.55% on the weaker-than-expected German Aug ZEW survey. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.32%.

Sep 10-year T-note prices (ZNU17 -0.16%) are down -5 ticks.

The German Aug ZEW survey expectations of economic growth fell -7.5 to 10.0, weaker than expectations of -2.5 to 15.0 and a 10-month low.

UK Jul public sector net borrowing unexpectedly fell -0.8 billion pounds, weaker than expectations of +0.3 billion pounds and the first decline in 5 months.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Jun FHFA house price index (expected +0.4% m/m, May +0.4% m/m), (2) Aug Richmond Fed manufacturing index (expected -3 to 11, Jul +3 to 14), (3) USDA Jul Cold Storage.

Notable Russell 1000 earnings reports today include: Toll Brothers (consensus $0.69), Coty (0.09), Medtronics (1.08), salesforce.com (0.32), Intuit (0.17).

U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: none.

Equity conferences this week: Bank of America Merrill Lynch Industrial, Energy and Infrastructure Conference on Tue, CFA Society of Minnesota Intellisight Conference on Tue-Wed, Healthcare Information & Management Systems Society Southeast Summit on Wed, Heikkinen Energy Conference on Wed, Raymond James SMID Cap Growth Conference on Wed, Southern California Investor Conference on Thu.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Alibaba (BABA +1.04%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Neutral' at Atlantic Equities LLP with a price target of $215.

VMware (VMW +0.77%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Deutsche Bank.

Tempur Sealy (TPX +0.39%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' a Stifel with a price target of $80.

Hain Celestial (HAIN +0.24%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Positive' at Susquehanna Financial.

Inversora Carso reported a 5.1% passive stake in PBF Logistics (PBFX -0.24%) .

Estee Lauder (EL +0.53%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Argus with a price target of $125.

BHP Billiton Ltd (BHP +1.26%) reported full-year underlying profit of $6.7 billion, weaker than consensus of $7.3 billion, and said it was pursuing options to exit onshore U.S. assets.

Nordson (NDSN +0.80%) sank 10% in after-hours trading after it forecast Q4 EPS of $1.18 to $1.32, well below consensus of $1.51.

Fabrinet (FN -0.65%) fell nearly 4% in after-hours trading after it forecast Q1 revenue of $356 million-$360 million, below consensus of $375.6 million.

Zayo Group Holdings (ZAYO -0.24%) dropped over 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted Ebitda of $310.8 million, below consensus of $314.7 million.

Premier Inc. (PINC -0.49%) slid over 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 50 cents, below consensus of 52 cents, and then said it sees full-year adjusted EPS of $1.98 to $2.09, weaker than consensus of $2.11.

Tarena International (TEDU +3.27%) lost over 3% in after-hours trading after it cut its full-year revenue forecast to 1.92 to 2-billion yuan from a May 22 estimate of 1.99 to 2.07 billion yuan.

Global Medical Reit (GMRE -1.75%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at D.A. Davidson.

MARKET COMMENTS

Sep S&P 500 E-mini stock futures (ESU17 +0.13%) this morning are up +1.75 points (+0.07%). Monday's closes: S&P 500 +0.12, Dow Jones +0.13%, Nasdaq -0.08%. The S&P 500 on Monday posted a 1-1/4 month low, but recovered its losses and closed slightly higher. Stocks were supported by strength in mining stocks after the price of copper rose +1.39% to a 2-3/4 year high. There was also optimism about the global economic outlook after the Bundesbank in its monthly report said, "the German economy may grow more strongly this year than was expected in June forecasts." Energy stocks were undercut by the -2.32% sell-off in crude oil prices.

Sep 10-year T-note prices (ZNU17 -0.16%) this morning are down -5 ticks. Monday's closes: TYU7 +3.00, FVU7 +2.25. Sep 10-year T-notes on Monday closed higher on the weaker-than-expected Jul Chicago Fed national activity index (-0.17 to -0.01 versus expectations of -0.03 to 0.10) and on the decline in inflation expectations after the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation rate tumbled to a 1-month low.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.43%) this morning is up +0.422 (+0.45%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0065 (-0.55%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.35 (+0.32%). Monday's closes: Dollar Index -0.339 (-0.36%), EUR/USD +0.0054 (+0.46%), USD/JPY -0.20 (-0.18%). The dollar index on Monday fell to a 1-week low and closed lower on the weaker-than-expected Jul Chicago Fed national activity index and on strength in EUR/USD after the Bundesbank's monthly report stated that "the German economy may grow more strongly this year than was expected in June forecasts."

Oct crude oil (CLV17 +0.04%) this morning is up +2 cents (+0.04%) and Oct gasoline (RBV17 +0.01%) is +0.0023 (+0.15%). Monday's closes: Oct WTI crude -1.13 (-2.22%), Oct gasoline -0.0370 (-2.41%). Oct crude oil and gasoline on Monday closed lower on the fall in the S&P 500 to a new 1-1/4 month high and on concern that the global oil glut will persist after last Wednesday's EIA data showed U.S. crude production rose to a 2-year high.

Metals prices this morning are mixed with Dec gold (GCZ17 -0.46%) -4.9 (-0.38%), Sep silver (SIU17 -0.26%) -0.015(-0.09%) and Sep copper (HGU17 +0.70%) +0.020 (+0.67%) at a new 2-3/4 nearest-futures high. Monday's closes: Dec gold +5.1 (+0.39%), Sep silver +0.015 (+0.09%), Sep copper +0.0410 (+1.39%). Metals on Monday closed higher with Sep copper at a new 2-3/4 year nearest-futures high. Metals prices were boosted by the fall in the dollar index to a 1-week low and by signs of tighter copper supplies after LME copper inventories fell -9,650 MT to a 1-1/2 month low of 261,700 MT.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR08/22/2017

		Tuesday, Aug 21
US	0900 ET	Jun FHFA house price index expected +0.4% m/m, May +0.4% m/m. Q2 house price purchase, Q1 +1.4% q/q.
	1000 ET	Aug Richmond Fed manufacturing index expected -3 to 11, Jul +3 to 14.
	1500 ET	USDA Jul Cold Storage.
		Wednesday, Aug 22
US	0700 ET	Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous +0.1% with purchase sub-index -1.5% and refi sub-index +1.6%.
	0905 ET	Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan speaks before the Permian Basin Petroleum Association Membership Luncheon in Midland, TX.
	0945 ET	Aug Markit manufacturing PMI expected +0.1 to 53.4, Jul +1.3 to 53.3. Aug Markit services PMI expected +0.2 to 54.9, Jul +0.5 to 54.7.
	1000 ET	Jul new home sales expected unch at 610,000, Jun +0.8% to 610,000.
	1030 ET	EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
	1300 ET	Treasury auctions $13 billion 2-year floating-rate notes.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR08/22/2017

Company	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Toll Brothers Inc	TOL US	Bef-mkt	Q3 2017 Earnings Release	Q3 17	0.687
Coty Inc	COTY US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2017 Earnings Release	Q4 17	0.091
Medtronic PLC	MDT US	06:45	Q1 2018 Earnings Release	Q1 18	1.084
Medtronic PLC	MDT US	08:00	Q1 2018 Earnings Call	Q1 18
Coty Inc	COTY US	08:00	Q4 2017 Earnings Call	Q4 17
Nordson Corp	NDSN US	08:30	Q3 2017 Earnings Call	Q3 17
Toll Brothers Inc	TOL US	11:00	Q3 2017 Earnings Call	Q3 17
Cadence Design Systems Inc	CDNS US		Roadshow
Cadence Design Systems Inc	CDNS US		Roadshow
Microchip Technology Inc	MCHP US	12:00	Annual General Meeting
salesforce.com Inc	CRM US	Aft-mkt	Q2 2018 Earnings Release	Q2 18	0.316
Intuit Inc	INTU US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2017 Earnings Release	Q4 17	0.168
Intuit Inc	INTU US	16:30	Q4 2017 Earnings Call	Q4 17
salesforce.com Inc	CRM US	17:00	Q2 2018 Earnings Call	Q2 18

BARCHART MORNING CALL 10/6

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Tuesday, October 6th, 2015View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ15 -0.32%) are down -0.15% as prices consolidate following Monday's sharp rally to a 2-week high. European stocks are up +0.61% at a 2-week high after German Aug factory orders unexpectedly fell and bolstered speculation the ECB may expand monetary stimulus. Gains were limited as basic resource companies and energy producers fell after the price of copper and crude oil declined. Asian stocks settled mostly higher: Japan +1.00%, Hong Kong -0.10%, China closed for holiday, Taiwan +0.50%, Australia +0.33%, Singapore +1.62%, South Korea +0.92%, India +0.55%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index rallied up to a 2-week high on the prospects for increased trade after Japan, the U.S. and other Pacific-rim countries that make up nearly 40% of the world economy finalized the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement on Monday. If lawmakers in each country approve the accord, it will guarantee intellectual property rights for drugmakers and reduce tariffs on goods from food to cars and should boost the prospects for increase global trade.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.23%) is down -0.20%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.25%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.08%.

Dec T-note prices (ZNZ15 +0.11%) are up +1 tick.

German Aug factory orders unexpectedly fell -1.8% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.5% m/m. On an annual basis, Aug factory orders rose +1.9% y/y, weaker than expectations of +5.6% y/y.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Aug U.S. trade deficit (expected -$48.0 billion, Jul -$41.86 billion), (2) Kansas City Fed President Esther George's appearance as keynote speaker at “The Faster Payments Imperative: Transforming the Market” at an event in Chicago, (3) the Treasury's auction of $24 billion of 3-year T-notes, (4) San Francisco Fed President John Williams' speech to the Urban Land Institute, and (5) the IMF's release of its World Economic Outlook.

There are two of the Russell 2000 companies report earnings today: Pepsico (consensus $1.26), Yum Brands (1.06).

U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: Pure Storage (PSIG), Aclaris Therapeutics (ACRS).

Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: The China-Russia E-Commerce Summit on Mon, Oil & Money Conference on Tue, Barclays Select Series Biosimilars Symposium on Wed, Capital Link Shipping Marine Services and Offshore Forum on Wed, and Goldman Sachs EMEA Leveraged Finance Conference on Thu.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Comerica (CMA +1.61%) was cut to 'Neutral' from 'Overweight' at JPMorgan Chase.

Pepsico (PEP +1.75%) climbed nearly 3% in pre-market trading after it reported Q3 EPS of $1.35, higher than consensus of $1.26.

Greatbatch (GB -0.14%) lowered guidance on fiscal 2015 sales to $685 million-$695 million, weaker than consensus of $714.7 million.

DuPont (DD +4.10%) rose 4% in pre-market trading after the company said Edward Breen will replace Ellen Kullman as chairman and CEO.

PMC-Sierra (PMCS +3.50%) surged 32% in pre-market trading after Skywork Solutions agreed to buy the company for $2 billion.

Computer Sciences Corp. (CSC +1.39%) said it will acquire Australia's UXC for $428 million.

Haemonetics (HAE -2.17%) tumbled over 12% in after-hours trading after it lowered guidance on fiscal 2015 adjusted EPS to $1.65-$1.75 from a Jul projection of $1.98-$2.08, well below consensus of $2.02.

Petrobras (PBR +5.39%) said it will cut its 2015 operating expenses forecast to $29 billion from $30 billion and cut its 2016 operating expenses forecast to $21 billion from $27 billion.

Ruckus Wireless (RKUS +4.25%) climbed 4% in after-hours trading when it was announced the company will join the S&P Smallcap 600 Index as of the close of trading on Wednesday, October 7.

Regulus Therapeutics (RGLS +0.77%) surged over 20% in after-hours trading after it presented new data that demonstrated a favorable pre-clinical profile for its RG-012 drug in treatment of Alport syndrome, a life-threatening genetic kidney disease.

Ilumina (ILMN -0.27%) slumped over 15% in after-hours trading after it lowered guidance on Q3 revenue to $550 million, below consensus of $569.1 million, and also lowered guidance on its Q4 revenue estimate to $570 million, weaker than consensus of $603.2 million.

The Container Store Group (TCS +2.84%) fell 4% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 6 cents, below consensus of 7 cents.

MARKET COMMENTS

Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ15 -0.32%) this morning are down -3.00 points. Monday's closes: S&P 500 +1.83%, Dow Jones +1.85%, Nasdaq +1.50%. The S&P 500 on Monday climbed to a 2-week high and closed sharply higher on carryover support from Friday's weaker-than-expected U.S. Sep payrolls report that pushed back Fed interest rate increase expectations from this year into Q1 of 2016 at the earliest. In addition, basic-resource stocks and energy producers rallied as the price of copper and crude oil moved higher. Stocks were able to shake off the -2.1 point decline in the Sep ISM non-manufacturing PMI, which was weaker than expectations of -1.5 to 57.5.

Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ15 +0.11%) this morning are up +1 tick. Monday's closes: TYZ5 -16.50, FVZ5 -9.50. Dec T-notes on Monday closed lower on the rally in the S&P 500 to a 2-week high, which reduced the safe-haven demand for T-notes, and on an increase in inflation expectations after the 10-year T-note breakeven rate rose to a 1-week high.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.23%) this morning is down -0.194 (-0.20%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD)is up +0.0028 (+0.25%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down-0.10 (-0.08%). Monday's closes: Dollar Index +0.276 (+0.29%), EUR/USD -0.0020 (-0.25%), USD/JPY +0.55 (+0.46%). The dollar index on Monday closed higher on strength in USD/JPY after a rally in stocks reduced the safe-haven demand for the yen. In addition, EUR/USD saw weakness on the downward revision in the Eurozone Sep Markit composite PMI and the decline in Eurozone Oct Sentix investor confidence to a 9-month low, which bolstered speculation the ECB may expand stimulus.

Nov crude oil (CLX15 -0.69%) this morning is down -11 cents (-0.24%) and Nov gasoline (RBX15 -0.15%) is up (+0.36%). Monday's closes: CLX5 +0.72 (+1.58%), RBX5 +0.0441 (+3.29%). Nov crude oil and gasoline on Monday closed higher on last Friday's Baker Hughes report showing that the number of active U.S. oil rigs as of Oct 2 fell -26 to a 5-year low of 614 rigs. Crude oil also closed higher on the escalation of Middle Eastern hostilities after Russian fighter jets flew into Turkish airspace and Turkey warned it would protect its airspace "at any cost."

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR10/06/2015

US	0830 ET	Aug trade balance expected -$48.0 billion, Jul -$41.86 billion.
	0915 ET	Kansas City Fed President Esther George is keynote speaker at The Faster Payments Imperative: Transforming the Market at an event in Chicago.
	1300 ET	Treasury auctions $24 billion of 3-year T-notes.
	1730 ET	San Francisco Fed President John Williams delivers an outlook speech to the Urban Land Institute.
	n/a	IMF releases its World Economic Outlook.
GER	0200 ET	German Aug factory orders expected +0.5% m/m and +5.6% y/y, Jul -1.4% m/m and -0.6% y/y.
UK	0400 ET	UK Sep new car registrations, Aug +9.6% y/y.
	1901 ET	UK Sep BRC shop price index, Aug -1.4% y/y.
EUR	1300 ET	ECB President Mario Draghi speaks at an event organized by the ECB in Frankfurt.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR10/06/2015

Company	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
PepsiCo Inc	PEP US	6:30	Q3 2015 Earnings Release	Q3 2015	1.263
PepsiCo Inc	PEP US	8:00	Q3 2015 Earnings Call	Q3 2015
Premier Inc	PINC US	9:00	Investor Day	Y 2015
Microsoft Corp	MSFT US	10:00	Special Media Event: Windows 10 Devices
Digital Realty Trust Inc	DLR US	10:00	Investor Day	Y 2015
Digital Realty Trust Inc	DLR US	13:00	Investor Day - Afternoon Session	Y 2015
Adobe Systems Inc	ADBE US	17:00	Analyst Meeting	Y 2015
Yum! Brands Inc	YUM US	Aft-mkt	Q3 2015 Earnings Release	Q3 2015	1.06
Altera Corp	ALTR US	17:30	Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting
McDonald's Corp	MCD US		McDonald's Corp. Begins Offering All-Day Breakfast in U.S. Locations
Altera Corp	ALTR US		Special Meeting - M&A Vote

BARCHART MORNING CALL 8/24

BARCHART MORNING CALL 

Monday, August 24th, 2015View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

September E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 -2.88%) are down -2.28% at a 10-month low and European stocks are down -2.86% at a 7-1/4 month low as global stock markets extend last week's plunge. In a broad sell-off that encompasses all industries, technology stocks are weaker with Apple and Netflix down over 4% in pre-market trading, and energy producers and oil service companies are lower with ConocoPhillips and Schlumberger down more than 3% as crude oil (CLV15 -3.14%) is down -3.61% at a 6-1/2 year low. Asian stocks closed sharply lower: Japan -4.61%, Hong Kong -5.17%, China -8.49%, Taiwan -4.84%, Australia -4.09%, Singapore -4.30%, South Korea -2.47%, India -5.94%. China's Shanghai Composite sank to a 6-1/4 month low even after China said it will allow pension funds to buy stocks for the first time as a lack of confidence undermines government attempts to prop up the equity market. More than 800 stocks fell by the daily 10% limit on the Shanghai Composite. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index slid to a 6-month low and emerging market stocks declined as well, led lower by losses in basic-resource producers as the price of copper (HGU15 -3.23%) dropped -2.37% to a new 6-year low.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.95%) is down -0.97% at a 2-month low as the plunge in global stocks bolsters the probability the Fed will delay an interest rate increase. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.93% at a 6-1/2 month high. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -1.61% at a 3-month low as safe haven demand benefits the yen. Emerging market currencies sold off against the dollar with the Russian ruble at a 6-1/2 month low and the Malaysian ringgit at a 17-year low

Sep T-note prices (ZNU15 +0.47%) are up +11.5 ticks at a 3-3/4 month high as the 10-year T-note yield fell below 2.00% as the rout in stocks bolsters the safe-haven of government debt.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Jul Chicago Fed national activity index (expected +0.12 to 0.20, Jun +0.15 to 0.08), and (2) a speech by Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart to the 2015 Public Pension Funding Forum.
There is 1 of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: Premier (consensus $0.36).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today include: none.
Equity conferences this week include: 9th Annual South East Asia Australia Offshore & Onshore Conference on Tue-Wed, 9th Annual Mining the Territory Conference on Wed, Pareto Healthcare Conference on Fri.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Marathon Oil (MRO -2.48%) , Noble Energy (NBL -0.82%) , and Whiting Petroleum (WLL -7.04%) were all downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at BofA/Merrill Lynch.
Bristol-Myers (BMY -2.62%) was upgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Underweight' at Piper Jaffray.
Valero (VLO -9.09%) was downgraded to 'Underperform' from 'Neutral' at BofA/Merrill Lynch.
Chevron (CVX -4.39%) was upgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Underperform' at BofA/Merrill Lynch.
Randgold (GOLD -1.37%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Sector Perform' at RBC Capital.
Grainger (GWW -1.87%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Outperform' at Baird.
AutoZone (AZO -5.06%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at BofA/Merrill Lynch.
Airgas (ARG -3.54%) and Fastenal (FAST -0.51%) were both downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Outperform' at Baird.
Bank of America (BAC -3.71%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at Keefe Bruyette.
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF -3.74%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Neutral" at Piper Jaffray ahead of earnings.
Nike (NKE -4.84%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at Telsey Advisory.
DreamWorks (DWA +5.01%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at B. Riley.
General Motors (GM -4.02%) is recalling 59,474 Chevrolet Cobalt vehicles manufactured January 4, 2010, to June 23, 2010. The affected vehicles may be equipped with an improperly routed Side-Impact Sensor wiring harness in the driver side front door
Francisco Partners reported a 7.2% stake in Mitel (MITL -3.63%) .
Emperey reported a 9.5% passive stake in BG Medicine (BGMD -3.41%) .

MARKET COMMENTS

Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 -2.88%) this morning are down -45.00 points (-2.28%) at a 10-month low. Friday's closes: S&P 500 -3.19%, Dow Jones -3.12%, Nasdaq -4.28%. The S&P 500 on Friday sold off to a 6-1/2 month low and settled sharply lower as the China Aug Caixin manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell -0.7 to a 6-1/2 year low of 47.1. In addition, the U.S. Aug Markit manufacturing PMI fell by -0.9 points to a 1-3/4 year low of 52.9.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU15 +0.47%) this morning are up +11.5 ticks at a 3-3/4 month high. Friday's closes: TYU5 +11.00, FVU5 +8.75. Sep T-notes Friday climbed to a 3-3/4 month high and closed higher on increased safe-haven demand with the plunge in global equity markets and on speculation the Fed may delay raising interest rates on global growth concerns after a gauge of Chinese manufacturing activity contracted at its steepest pace in 6-1/3 years. T-notes also received a boost as crude oil sank to a new 6-1/3 year low and pushed the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation rate down to a 7-1/4 month low.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.95%) this morning is down -0.921 (-0.97%) at a 2-month low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0106 (+0.93%) at a 6-1/2 month high. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -1.97 (-1.61%) at a 3-month low. Friday's closes: Dollar Index -0.972 (-1.01%), EUR/USD +0.01439 (+1.28%), USD/JPY -1.363(-1.10%). The dollar index Friday fell to a 1-1/2 month low and closed lower on (1) the plunge in world equity markets that prompted an increase in safe-haven demand for the yen and sent USD/JPY down to a 1-1/4 month low, and (2) strength in EUR/USD which rose to a 2-month high after Eurozone Aug Markit manufacturing PMI expanded more than expected.
Oct crude oil (CLV15 -3.14%) this morning isdowm -$1.46 a barrel (-3.61%) at a 6-1/2 year low and Oct gasoline (RBV15 -2.62%) is down -0.0418 (-3.02%) at a contract low. Friday's closes: CLV5 -0.87 (-2.11%), RBV5 -0.0085 (-0.61%). Oct crude and gasoline sold off sharply Friday with Oct crude at a 6-1/3 year low and Oct gasoline at a 6-1/2 month low. Crude oil prices were hurt by the plunge in global stock prices and concern the U.S. oil supply glut will persist with U.S. crude supplies nearly 100 million bbl above their 5-year seasonal average.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR08/24/2015

US	0830 ET	Jul Chicago Fed national activity index expected +0.12 to 0.20, Jun +0.15 to 0.08.
	1100 ET	USDA weekly grain export inspections.
	1555 ET	Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart speaks to the 2015 Public Pension Funding Forum.
	1600 ET	USDA weekly crop progress.
JPN	0100 ET	Revised Japan Jun leading index CI, previous 107.2. Revised Jun coincident index, previous 112.0.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR08/24/2015

Company	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Premier Inc	PINC US	17:00	Q4 2015 Earnings Call	Q4 2015
Premier Inc	PINC US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	0.361

BARCHART MORNING CALL 8/25

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Monday, August 25th, 2014View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

September E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 +0.35%) this morning are up +0.31% at a record high and European stocks are up +1.06% at a 3-week high on increased M&A activity. Burger King Worldwide gained over 5% in pre-market trading after saying it is in talks to acquire Tim Hortons Inc., which would make it the third-largest fast-food chain if the merger takes place. Intermune surged 35% in pre-market trading after Roche Holding AG said it purchased the biotechnology company for $8.3 billion. European stocks also received support on speculation the ECB may boost stimulus measures to support growth after a gauge of German business confidence fell for a fourth month and after ECB President Draghi said late last Friday at a Fed symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming that ECB policy makers "stand ready to adjust our policy stance further" and will us all available instruments to "ensure price stability over the medium term." Asian stocks closed mostly higher: Japan +0.48%, Hong Kong +0.22%, China -0.95%, Taiwan +0.11%, Australia -0.19%, Singapore +0.14%, South Korea +0.08%, India +0.07%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index rose as exporters rallied on the prospects of improved earnings after the yen tumbled to a 7-month low against the dollar when BOJ Governor Kuroda said at Jackson Hole that BOJ monetary policy was "having its intended effect" and that global central banks must fight deflation by any and all means. Commodity prices are mixed. Oct crude oil (CLV14 +0.20%) is up +0.15%. Oct gasoline (RBV14 +0.20%) is up +0.14%. Dec gold (GCZ14 -0.02%) is down -0.13%. Sep copper (HGU14 +0.34%) is down -0.05%. Agriculture prices are mixed with Nov soybeans down -0.58% at a contract low on expectations for a bumper U.S. soybean harvest. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.21%) is up +0.18% at a fresh 11-1/2 month high amid speculation the Fed will raise interest rates before the ECB or the BOJ. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.32% at an 11-1/2 month low after German Aug IFO business confidence fell more than expected to a 13-month low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.05% as it fell back from a 7-month high. The yen had slumped to a 7-month low after comments over the weekend at Jackson Hole, Wyoming from BOJ Governor Kuroda signaled the BOJ will maintain record stimulus. Sep T-note prices (ZNU14 +0.14%) are up +4.5 ticks on carry-over support from a rally in German bunds as the yield on Germany's 10-year bund tumbled to a record low 0.931%.
The German Aug IFO business climate fell -1.7 to 106.3, a larger decline than expectations of -1.0 to 107.0 and the lowest in 13 months. The Aug IFO current assessment fell -1.8 to 111.1, more than expectations of -0.9 to 112.0 and the lowest in 13 months. The Aug IFO expectations fell -1.7 to 101.7, more than expectations of -1.3 to 102.1 and the lowest in 15 months.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

The market is expecting today’s July new home sales report to show a +5.4% increase to 428,000. There is one Russell 1000 company that reports earnings today: Premier (consensus $0.32). Equity conferences this week include: ONS 2014 Conference on Mon-Thu, Latin Markets 3rd Annual Peru Capital Projects & Infrastructure Summit on Wed, Simmons European Energy Conference on Wed, Jefferies Semiconductors, Hardware & Communications Infrastructure Summit on Wed, and MIT Sloan Latin America-China Conference on Fri.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Burger King Worldwide (BKW +1.01%) is up over 5% in pre-market trading after saying it is in talks to acquire Tim Hortons Inc.
Texas Roadhouse (TXRH +1.12%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Equal Weight' at Stephens.
Foot Locker (FL +2.95%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Overweight' at Piper Jaffray.
Boeing (BA -0.03%) announced an order by BOC Aviation for 82 airplanes worth $8.8 billion.
CBOE Holdings (CBOE +0.10%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at Raymond James.
U.S. Steel (X +2.66%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Underperform' at Credit Suisse.
Goldman Sachs (GS +0.18%) announced an agreement with FHFA to repurchase $3.15 billion in residential mortgage-backed securities, or RMBS, purchased by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac over the 2005-2007 period to resolve all federal and state securities law claims brought by FHFA with respect to RMBS.
Zilkha Investments reported a 5.38% passive stake in Higher One (ONE -1.99%) .
JAT Capital reported a 6.73% stake in Madison Square Garden (MSG +2.28%) .
OrbiMed Advisors reported an 11.1% stake in Otonomy (OTIC +5.58%) .

MARKET COMMENTS

Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 +0.35%) this morning are up +6.25 points (+0.31%) at a fresh all-time high. The S&P 500 index on Friday closed lower: S&P 500 -0.20%, Dow Jones -0.22%, Nasdaq +0.14%. Negative factors for stocks included (1) balanced comments from Fed Chair Yellen that prompted profit-taking in stocks after she wasn’t as dovish as expected, and (2) increased tensions in Ukraine after Interfax reported that Ukraine sees a Russian aid convoy into the eastern part of its country as an invasion and after NATO said it sees an “alarming build-up” of Russian troops on the Ukraine border.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU14 +0.14%) this morning are up +4.5 icks on carry-over support from a rally in German bunds to a record high. Sep 10-year T-note futures prices Friday fell to a 1-week low and closed lower. The main bearish factor for T-notes Friday was the balanced tone of Fed Chair Yellen’s speech at Jackson Hole, which fueled long liquidation pressures since she was not as dovish as the market had expected. T-notes saw support from heightened tensions in Ukraine after NATO said it sees an “alarming build-up” of Russian troops on the Ukraine border. Closes: TYU4 -4.0, FVU4 -5.25.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.21%) this morning is up +0.148 (+0.18%) at an 11-1/2 month high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0043 (-0.32%) at an 11-1/2 month low and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.05 (-0.05%). The dollar index on Friday climbed to an 11-1/2 month high and closed higher. Supportive factors for the dollar included (1) balanced comments from Fed Chair Yellen that boosted the likelihood the Fed will continue to taper QE3 and eventually begin to raise interest rates, and (2) the slide in EUR/USD to an 11-1/2 month low and the rally in USD/JPY to a 7-month high. Closes: Dollar index +0.182 (+0.22%), EUR/USD -0.0039 (-0.29%), USD/JPY +0.063 (+0.06%).
Oct WTI crude oil (CLV14 +0.20%) this morning is up +14 cents (+0.15%) and Oct gasoline (RBV14 +0.20%) is up +0.0035 (+0.14%). Oct crude and gasoline prices on Friday closed lower: CLV4 -0.51 (-0.33%), RBV4 -0.0102 (-0.39%). Bearish factors included (1) the rally in the dollar index to an 11-1/2 month high, which undercuts most commodities priced in dollars, and (2) comments from Fed Chair Yellen that raised demand concerns when she said “underutilization of labor resources still remains significant.”

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR08/25/2014

US	0830 ET	Jul Chicago Fed national activity index expected +0.08 to 0.20, Jun 0.12.
	0945 ET	Prelim-Aug Markit U.S. services PMI expected -3.8 to 57.0, July -0.2 to 60.8. Prelim-Aug Markit U.S. composite PMI, July -0.4 to 60.6.
	1000 ET	Jul new home sales expected +5.4% to 428,000, Jun -8.1% to 406,000.
	1030 ET	Aug Dallas Fed manufacturing activity expected +0.3 to 13.0, Jul +1.30 to 12.7.
	1100 ET	USDA weekly grain export inspections.
	1600 ET	USDA weekly crop progress.
GER	0400 ET	German Aug IFO business climate expected -1.0 to 107.0, Jul 108.0. Aug IFO current assessment expected -0.9 to 112.0, Jul 112.9. Aug IFO expectations expected -1.4 to 102.0, Jul 103.4.
JPN	1950 ET	Japan Jul PPI services expected +3.7% y/y, Jun +3.6% y/y.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR08/25/2014

Company Name	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Allied World Assurance Co Holdings AG	AWH US	9:00	Acquisition of Hong Kong and Singapore Operations of Royal & Sun Alliance Insur
Microchip Technology Inc	MCHP US	12:00	Annual General Meeting	Y 2014
VMware Inc	VMW US	14:45	Analyst Day	Y 2014
Premier Inc	PINC US	17:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
Premier Inc	PINC US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	0.324
Bristol-Myers Squibb Co	BMY US		PDUFA, Eliquis, trmt of venous thromboembolism & prevention of recurrent VTE
Equifax Inc	EFX US		Investor Meeting - Paris	Y 2014
Equifax Inc	EFX US		Investor Meeting - Amsterdam	Y 2014
Pfizer Inc	PFE US		PDUFA, Eliquis, trmt of venous thromboembolism & prevention of recurrent VTE
Microchip Technology Inc	MCHP US		Annual General Meeting