BARCHART MORNING CALL 3/11

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Wednesday, March 11th, 2015View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

March E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 +0.37%) this morning are up +0.44% as the market recovers from yesterday's plunge and European stocks are up +1.74% after a plunge in EUR/USD to an 11-3/4 year low has fueled a rally in European exporters as the slide in EUR/USD boosts their earnings prospects. European government bond yields continue to fall as the 10-year German bund yield dropped to a record low 0.198% as the ECB buys Eurozone sovereign debt for a third day. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +0.31%, Hong Kong -0.75%, China +0.11%, Taiwan -0.14%, Australia -0.53%, Singapore -0.58%, South Korea +0.16%, India -0.18%. Chinese stocks rebounded from early losses and closed higher on speculation the government may boost stimulus measures to support the economy after Chinese Feb industrial production and retail sales rose less-than-expected. Japanese stocks recovered from losses and closed higher as the rally in USD/JPY Tuesday to a 7-1/2 year high improved the earnings prospects of Japanese exporters. Commodity prices are mixed. Apr crude oil (CLJ15 +0.39%) is up +0.08%. Apr gasoline (RBJ15 -0.83%) is down -0.92% at a 2-1/2 week low. Apr gold (GCJ15 -0.19%) is down -0.24%. May copper (HGK15 +0.32%) is up +0.36%. Agriculture prices are higher. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.85%) is up +0.78% at an 11-1/2 year high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -1.17% at an 11-3/4 year low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.35%. Jun T-note prices (ZNM15 -0.16%) are down -5 ticks.
ECB President Draghi said the aim of QE is to return inflation to the ECB's goal of 2.0% and "we can deploy and will deploy monetary policy in a way that can and will stabilize inflation in line with our objective."
China Feb retail sales rose +10.7% year-to-date, weaker than expectations of +11.6% year-to-date and the slowest pace of increase in 11 years.
China Feb industrial production rose +6.8% year-to-date, weaker than expectations of +7.7% year-to-date and the slowest pace of increase in 5-3/4 years.
UK Jan industrial production unexpectedly fell -0.1% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m. On an annual basis, Jan industrial production rose +1.3% y/y, right on expectations. UK Jan manufacturing production fell -0.5% m/m and rose +1.9% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m and +2.6% y/y.
Japan Feb PPI was unch m/m and rose +0.5% y/y, slightly stronger than expectations of unch m/m and +0.4% y/y.
Japan Jan machine orders fell -1.7% m/m and rose +1.9% y/y, stronger than expectations of -4.0% m/m and -1.0% y/y.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

The Treasury today will sell $21 billion of 10-year T-notes. There are three of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: Memorial Resource Development (consensus $0.13), Axalta Coating Systems (0.23), Tahoe Resources (0.10).
Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Deutsche Bank Media, Internet & Telecom Conference on Mon-Wed, 11th Annual Private Banking Asia 2015 on Mon-Wed, Piper Jaffray Technology, Media and Telecommunications Conference on Tue-Wed, RBC Capital Markets Financial Institutions Conference on Tue-Wed, Credit Agricole Global High Yield Conference on Wed, Goldman Sachs TMT Leveraged Finance Conference on Wed, Barclays Capital Health Care Conference on Tue-Thu, Deutsche Bank Regional Banks Summit on Thu, Nomura - Conference: US Software Conference - New York on Thu.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Brown Shoe (BWS +0.25%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 20 cents, better than consensus of 16 cents.
Tiffany (TIF -1.15%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Neutral' at Atlantic Equities.
Citigroup kept its 'Buy' rating on Actavis (ACT -2.04%) and raised its price target on the stock to $360 from $325.
Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG -0.50%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at SunTrust.
Credit Suisse (CS +6.67%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Underweight' at JPMorgan Chase.
Skyworks (SWKS -0.99%) will replace PetSmart (PETM -0.01%) in the S&P 500 as of today's close.
EMC (EMC -3.27%) was downgraded to 'Market Perform' from 'Outperform' at Wells Fargo.
L-3 Communications (LLL -1.91%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at Buckingham with a price target of $155.
Credit Suisse initiated Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD -1.77%) with an 'Underperform' and a price target of $175.
Credit Suisse initiated YUM! Brands (YUM -1.96%) with an 'Underperform' and a price target of $74.
Credit Suisse initiated Dunkin' Brands (DNKN +0.21%) with an 'Outperform' and named it a Top Pick with a $56 price target.
Verifone (PAY -2.75%) reported Q1 EPS of 44 cents, better than consensus of 41 cents, but then lowered guidance on fiscal 2015 EPS view to $1.78-1.82 from $1.85-$1.90, below consensus of $1.90.

MARKET COMMENTS

Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 +0.37%) this morning are up +9.00 points (+0.44%). The S&P 500 index on Tuesday sold off to a 1-month low and closed sharply lower: S&P 500 -1.70%, Dow Jones -1.85%, Nasdaq -1.90%. Bearish factors included (1) comments from Dallas Fed President Fisher who said the Fed should raise interest rates before the economy reaches full employment as policy makers are better off tightening monetary policy earlier and more gradually than later and more quickly, (2) deflation concerns in China after China Feb PPI fell -4.8% y/y, weaker than expectations of -4.3% y/y and the fastest pace of decline in 5-1/3 years, and (3) concern that the 12% rally in the dollar index over the past 3 months to an 11-1/2 year high will undercut the profitability of multi-national U.S. companies.
Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM15 -0.16%) this morning are down -5 ticks. Jun 10-year T-note futures prices on Tuesday closed higher. Closes: TYM5 +16.00, FVM5 +7.00. Bullish factors included (1) carry-over support from a rally in German bunds to an all-time high as the ECB bought European government bonds in the second day of its QE program, (2) reduced inflation expectations after the 10-year T-note inflation breakeven rate fell to a 2-week low, and (3) increased safe-haven demand for T-notes after the S&P 500 tumbled to a 1-month low.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.85%) this morning is up +0.767 (+0.78%) at an 11-1/2 year high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0125 (-1.17%) at an 11-3.4 year low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.43 (+0.35%). The dollar index on Tuesday surged to an 11-1/2 year high and closed higher: Dollar index +1.030 (+1.06%), EUR/USD -0.01541 (-1.42%), USD/JPY -0.022 (-0.02%). Bullish factors included (1) hawkish comments from Dallas Fed President Fisher who said the Fed should raise interest rates before the economy reaches full employment, and (2) weakness in EUR/USD which slumped to an 11-3/4 year low as the ECB bought European government bonds on the second day of its QE program. USD/JPY fell back from a 7-1/2 year high and closed lower as the slide in stocks fueled safe-haven demand for the yen.
Apr WTI crude oil (CLJ15 +0.39%) this morning is up +4 cents (+0.08%) and Apr gasoline (RBJ15 -0.83%) is down -0.0167 (-0.92%) at a 2-1/2 week low. Apr crude oil and gasoline prices on Tuesday closed lower with Apr crude at a 1-week low and Apr gasoline at a 1-1/2 week low: CLJ5 -1.71 (-3.42%), RBJ5 -0.0602 (-3.21%). Bearish factors included (1) the rally in the dollar index to an 11-1/2 year high, (2) the slump in the S&P 500 to a 1-month low, and (3) expectations for Wednesday’s weekly EIA crude inventories to increase by +4.5 million bbl.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR03/11/2015

US	0700 ET	Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous +0.1% with purchase sub-index -0.2% and refi sub-index +0.5%.
	1030 ET	EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
	1300 ET	Treasury auctions $21 billion 10-year T-notes.
	1630 ET	Fed releases bank stress test results.
GER	0300 ET	German Q4 labor costs, Q3 +0.2% q/q and +2.3% y/y.
EUR	0400 ET	ECB President Mario Draghi speaks at a conference in Frankfurt, GE.
UK	0530 ET	UK Jan industrial production expected +0.2% m/m and +1.3% y/y, Dec -0.2% m/m and +0.5% y/y.
	0530 ET	UK Jan manufacturing production expected +0.2% m/m and +2.6% y/y, Dec +0.1% m/m and +2.4% y/y.
	2001 ET	UK Feb RICS house price balance expected 6%, Jan 7%.
JPN	1950 ET	Japan Jan tertiary index expected +0.5% m/m, Dec -0.3% m/m.
	1950 ET	Japan Q1 BSI large manufacturing business conditions, Q4 8.1. Q1 BSI large all-industry business conditions expected 6.0, Q4 5.0.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR03/11/2015

Company	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Memorial Resource Development Corp	MRD US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	0.131
Axalta Coating Systems Ltd	AXTA US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	0.225
Principal Financial Group Inc	PFG US	7:30	Investor Conference	Y 2015
Axalta Coating Systems Ltd	AXTA US	8:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
General Electric Co	GE US	8:30	Investor Meeting - Technology	Y 2015
Analog Devices Inc	ADI US	9:00	Annual General Meeting
NextEra Energy Inc	NEE US	13:00	Investor Conference	Y 2015
MetLife Inc	MET US	14:30	Investor Meeting	Y 2015
Memorial Resource Development Corp	MRD US	15:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
Skyworks Solutions Inc	SWKS US	Aft-mkt	Skyworks Solutions Replaces PetSmart Inc. in S&P 500
Skyworks Solutions Inc	SWKS US	Aft-mkt	Maximus Inc. Replaces Skyworks Solutions in S&P MidCap 400
PetSmart Inc	PETM US	Aft-mkt	Skyworks Solutions Replaces PetSmart Inc. in S&P 500
Tahoe Resources Inc	THO CN	Aft-mkt	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	0.103
Energen Corp	EGN US		Investment Community Meeting - Day 3	Y 2015
Franklin Resources Inc	BEN US		Annual General Meeting

BARCHART MORNING CALL 3/6

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Friday, March 6th, 2015View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

March E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 -0.02%) this morning are down -0.06% ahead of the release of the U.S. Feb payrolls report, which may offer clues to the timing of U.S. interest rate increases, while European stocks are up +0.01% as the ECB prepares to begin asset purchases on Monday and after German Jan industrial production was stronger than expected. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +1.17%, Hong Kong -0.12%, China -0.51%, Taiwan +0.53%, Australia -0.09%, Singapore +0.66%, South Korea +0.71%, India closed for holiday. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index climbed to a 14-3/4 year high as USD/JPY held above 120 yen per dollar, near a 3-week high, which fueled a rally in exporters. Commodity prices are mixed. Apr crude oil (CLJ15 +0.37%) is up +0.39%. Apr gasoline (RBJ15 +0.61%) is up +0.59%. Apr gold (GCJ15 -0.08%) is down -0.20% at a 1-week low as the dollar strengthened to an 11-1/3 year high. May copper (HGK15 -0.38%) is down -0.47% on increased global supplies after weekly Shanghai copper inventories jumped +19,194 MT to a 1-3/4 year high of 224,340 MT and LME copper supplies rose +4,675 MT to a 13-month high of 323,050 MT. Agriculture prices are weaker. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.42%) is up +0.45% at an 11-1/3 year high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.80% at an 11-1/2 year low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.07%. GBP/USD slipped to a 1-month low after the BOE's quarterly inflation survey showed inflation expectations plummeted to a 13-year low. Jun T-note prices (ZNM15 -0.02%) are down -0.5 of a tick.
In its quarterly Inflation Attitudes survey, the BOE said inflation expectations in Feb fell to 1.9% over the next 12 months from 2.5% in Nov, below the BOE's 2.0% inflation target and the lowest in 13 years.
San Francisco Fed President Williams said mid-year may be time for a "serious discussion" about raising interest rates as the labor market nears full employment and inflation rebounds.
German Jan industrial production rose +0.6% m/m and +0.9% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.5% m/m and -0.2% y/y.
The Japan Jan leading index CI unexpectedly fell -0.2 to 105.1, weaker than expectations of +0.2 to 105.8. The Jan coincident index rose +2.4 to 113.0, stronger than expectations of +1.5 to 112.2 and the highest in 10 months.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Today’s Feb unemployment report is expected to show decent strength with a payroll increase of +235,000. Meanwhile, today’s Feb unemployment rate is expected to fall by -0.1 point to 5.6%, thus matching the 6-1/2 year low originally posted in Dec 2014. Today’s U.S. Jan trade deficit is expected to narrow to -$41.5 billion from -$46.6 billion in December. Today’s Jan consumer credit report is expected to show another strong increase of +$14.500 billion. There are 4 of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: Staples (consensus $0.30), Foot Locker (0.91), Big Lots (1.75), Thor Industries (0.42). There are no equity conferences today.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Foot Locker (FL -0.80%) reported Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $1.00, higher than consensus of 91 cents.
Textron (TXT +0.85%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Nomura.
Esterline (ESL +0.63%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Outperform' at Credit Suisse.
Host Hotels (HST -1.15%) was downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Neutral' at Goldman Sachs.
Staples (SPLS -0.54%) reported Q4 EPS of 31 cents, better than consensus of 30 cents.
Airbus (EADSY +3.80%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Goldman Sachs.
The Fed announced that all 31 banks passed their stress tests with Tier 1 capital above the required levels.
Alon USA Energy (ALJ +0.50%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 0 cents, better than consensus of a -9 cent loss.
Devon Park Bioventures reported a 20.42% stake in Inotek Pharmaceuticals (ITEK unch) .
Thor Industries (THO -1.52%) reported Q2 EPS of 57 cents, well above consensus of 42 cents.
The Fresh Market (TFM +2.27%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 55 cents, better than consensus of 51 cents.
Cooper Companies (COO +0.61%) reported Q1 EPS of $1.75, higher than consensus of $1.54.
The Gap (GPS -1.43%) fell 2% in after-hours trading after it reported February same-store-sales fell 4% y/y.

MARKET COMMENTS

Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 -0.02%) this morning are down -1.25 points (-0.06%). The S&P 500 index on Thursday closed higher: S&P 500 +0.12%, Dow Jones +0.21%, Nasdaq +0.15%. Bullish factors included (1) carry-over support from a rally in European stocks after the ECB raised its Eurozone 2015 GDP forecast to 1.5% from a Dec projection of 1.0% and unveiled its plan to purchase 60 billion euros a month of sovereign debt, and (2) increased M&A activity after AbbVie bought Pharmacyclics for $21 billion and Mallinckrodt purchased Ikaria for $2.3 billion. Bearish factors included (1) the unexpected +7,000 increase in U.S. weekly jobless claims to a 9-1/2 month high of 320,000, more than expectations for a decline of -18,000 to 295,000, and (2) the unexpected -0.2% decline in U.S. Jan factory orders, weaker than expectations of a +0.2% increase.
Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM15 -0.02%) this morning are down -0.5 of a tick. Jun 10-year T-note futures prices on Thursday closed higher. Closes: TYM5 +5.00, FVM5 +4.75. Bullish factors included (1) the unexpected increase in U.S. weekly jobless claims to a 9-1/2 month high, and (2) the unexpected decline in U.S. Jan factory orders. Bearish factors included (1) a rally in stocks, and (2) the action by the ECB to raise its Eurozone 2015 GDP estimate, which reduced global growth concerns and curbed safe-haven demand for T-notes.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.42%) this morning is up +0.429 (+0.45%) at a fresh 11-1/3 year high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0088 (-0.80%) at a new 11-1/2 year low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.08 (-0.07%). The dollar index on Thursday climbed to an 11-1/3 year high and closed higher: Dollar index +0.413 (+0.43%), EUR/USD -0.00486 (-0.44%), USD/JPY +0.468 (+0.39%). Bullish factors included (1) weakness in EUR/USD which sank to a 11-1/2 year low after the ECB cut its Eurozone 2015 inflation forecast to 0.0% from a Dec estimate of +0.7% and said it will begin 60 billion euros worth of monthly sovereign debt purchases on Mar 9, and (2) the rally in USD/JPY to a 2-week high as a rally in stocks reduced the safe-haven demand for the yen.
Apr WTI crude oil (CLJ15 +0.37%) this morning is up +20 cents (+0.39%) and Apr gasoline (RBJ15 +0.61%) is up +0.0112 (+0.59%). Apr crude and Apr gasoline prices on Thursday closed lower: CLJ5 -0.77 (-1.49%), RBJ5 -0.0314 (-1.63%). Bearish factors included (1) a rally in the dollar index to an 11-1/3 year high, and (2) demand concerns from China, the world's second-largest crude consumer, after China lowered its 2015 GDP target to 7.0%, the lowest in more than 15 years, from 7.5% in 2014. Apr crude posted a 1-1/2 week high on bullish factors that included (1) the action by Libya's National Oil Corp. to declare force majeure on oil supplies from 11 Libyan oil fields due to attacks on oil infrastructure from Islamic militants, and (2) the action by the ECB to raise its Eurozone 2015 GDP forecast to 1.5% from a Dec projection of 1.0%.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR03/06/2015

US	0830 ET	Feb non-farm payrolls expected +235,000, Jan +257,000. Feb private payrolls expected +225,000, Jan +267,000. Feb manufacturing payrolls expected +11,000, Jan +22,000. Feb unemployment rate expected -0.1 to 5.6%, Jan +0.1 to 5.7%.
	0830 ET	Feb avg hourly earnings expected +0.2% m/m and +2.1% y/y, Jan +0.5% m/m and +2.2% y/y. Feb avg weekly hours all-employees expected unch at 34.6 hours.
	0830 ET	Jan trade balance expected -$41.5 billion, Dec -$46.6 billion.
	1500 ET	Jan consumer credit expected +$14.500 billion, Dec +$14.755 billion.
JPN	0000 ET	Japan Jan leading index CI expected +0.2 to 105.8, Dec 105.6. Jan coincident index expected +1.5 to 112.2, Dec 110.7.
GER	0200 ET	German Jan industrial production expected +0.5% m/m and -0.2% y/y, Dec +0.1% m/m and -0.7% y/y.
EUR	0500 ET	Revised Eurozone Q4 GDP, previous +0.3% q/q and +0.9% y/y.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR03/06/2015

Company	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Foot Locker Inc	FL US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	0.907
Big Lots Inc	BIG US	8:00	Q4 2015 Earnings Call	Q4 2015
Staples Inc	SPLS US	8:00	Q4 2015 Earnings Call	C4 2015
Staples Inc	SPLS US	8:00	Q4 2015 Earnings Call	Q4 2015
Foot Locker Inc	FL US	9:00	Q4 2015 Earnings Call	Q4 2015
Paramount Group Inc	PGRE US	10:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
Big Lots Inc	BIG US		Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	1.749
Thor Industries Inc	THO US		Q2 2015 Earnings Release	Q2 2015	0.42
Staples Inc	SPLS US		Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	0.3
PetSmart Inc	PETM US		Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting - M&A Vote	Y 2015

BARCHART MORNING CALL 3/4

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Wednesday, March 4th, 2015View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

March E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 -0.31%) this morning are down -0.32% ahead of Feb ADP employment data and ahead of the Fed Beige Book, while European stock are up +0.06% after Eurozone Jan retail sales rose more than expected. Gains in European stocks were limited after the Eurozone Feb composite PMI grew less than expected. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan -0.59%, Hong Kong -0.96%, China +0.65%, Taiwan +0.17%, Australia -0.54%, Singapore -0.19%, South Korea -0.07%, India -0.72%. Commodity prices are mostly lower due to strength in the dollar. Apr crude oil (CLJ15 +0.79%) is up +0.49% and Apr gasoline (RBJ15 -1.21%) is down -0.96%. Apr gold (GCJ15 +0.05%) is down -0.08%. May copper (HGK15 +0.30%) is down -0.19%. Agriculture prices are weaker. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.25%) is up +0.30% at a fresh 11-1/3 year high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.40% at a 5-week low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.11%. Jun T-note prices (ZNM15 +0.07%) are down -0.50 of a tick.
Eurozone Jan retail sales rose +1.1% m/m and +3.7% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.2% m/m and +2.3% y/y with the +3.7% y/y gain the largest annual increase in nearly 9-1/2 years.
The Eurozone Feb Markit composite PMI was revised downward by -0.2 to 53.3 from the originally reported 53.5, but still is the fastest pace of expansion in 7 months.
The German Feb Markit services PMI was revised lower by -0.8 to 54.7 from the originally reported 55.5.
The UK Feb Markit/CIPS services PMI unexpectedly fell -0.5 to 56.7, weaker than expectations of +0.3 to 57.5.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBA) unexpectedly lowered the benchmark repurchase rate by -25 bp to 7.50% with RBA Governor Rajan saying "given low capacity utilization and still-weak indicators of production and credit off-take, it is appropriate for the RBA to be pre-emptive in its policy action to utilize available space for monetary accommodation."

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Today’s Feb ADP employment report is expected to show a respectable increase of +220,000, stronger than the +213,000 increase seen in January. Today’s Feb ISM non-manufacturing index is expected to show a small -0.2 decline to 56.5, thus reversing January’s small +0.2 point increase to 56.7. The Fed today will release its Beige Book report ahead of the March 17-18 FOMC meeting. There are 3 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today: H&R Block (consensus $-0.17), Brown-Forman (0.86), PetSmart (1.37).
Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Cowen & Co. Health Care Conference on Mon-Wed, Citigroup Global Property CEO Conference on Mon-Wed, Raymond James & Associates Institutional Investors Conference on Mon-Wed, Morgan Stanley Technology Media & Telecom Conference on Mon-Thu, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Consumer & Retail Conference on Tue-Wed, J.P. Morgan Aviation, Transportation and Industrials Conference on Tue-Thu, Mitsubishi UFJ Securities 3rd Annual Seattle Consumer Conference on Wed, Morgan Stanley European MedTech & Services Conference on Wed, Simmons Energy Conference on Wed, UBS Natural Gas, Electric Power and MLP Conference on Wed, UBS Utilities and Natural Gas Conference on Wed, UBS Global Consumer Conference on Wed-Thu, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Refining Conference on Thu, Barclays Investment Grade Energy & Pipeline Conference on Thu, Pacific Crest Emerging Technology Summit on Thu, Morgan Stanley MLP/Diversified Natural Gas, Utilities Clean Tech Conference on Thu.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Alcoa (AA +1.54%) and Century Aluminum (CENX -1.44%) were both downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at BofA/Merrill Lynch.
Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS +1.05%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Needham.
Best Buy (BBY +1.42%) was upgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Underperform' at Wedbush.
Halyard Health (HYH -0.92%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $1.59, well above consensus of 77 cents.
Trina Solar (TSL +1.19%) reported Q4 EPS of 13 cents, right on consensus, although Q4 revenue of $705.04 million was higher than consensus of $642.88 million.
AutoZone (AZO +0.36%) was upgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Underperform' at Sterne Agee.
VWR (VWR -0.76%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 43 cents, higher than consensus of 37 cents.
McDonald's (MCD -0.26%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Sector Perform' at RBC Capital.
ABM Industries (ABM -0.16%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 38 cents, better than consensus of 34 cents, and then raised guidacne on fiscal 2015 adjusted EPS view to $1.75-$1.85, above consensus of $1.75.
Air France-KLM (AFLYY +0.91%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Goldman Sachs.
Cascade Investment reported a 7.9% stake in Strategic Hotels (BEE -1.82%) .
Engility Holdings (EGL -1.40%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 67 cents, less than consensus of 69 cents.
Bob Evans (BOBE +0.27%) plunged over 15% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 EPS of 60 cents, below consensus of 70 cents, and then lowered guidance on fiscal 2015 EPS view to $1.40-$1.60 from $1.90 to $2.10, weaker than consensus of $1.97.

MARKET COMMENTS

Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 -0.31%) this morning are down -6.75 points (-0.32%). The S&P 500 index on Tuesday slipped to a 1-week low and closed lower: S&P 500 -0.45%, Dow Jones -0.47%, Nasdaq -0.54%. Bearish factors included (1) weakness in automakers after Feb auto sales came in below expectations, (2) a sell-off in transportation stocks after railroad companies tumbled, and (3) weakness in healthcare stocks as biotechnology companies slumped after their recent run up.
Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM15 +0.07%) this morning are down -0.50 of a tick. Jun 10-year T-note futures prices on Tuesday fell to a 1-week low and closed lower. Closes: TYM5 -10.00, FVM5 -6.00. The main bearish factor was an increase in corporate supply after Activis Plc launched a $21 billion debt sale, which prompted bond dealers to hedge their purchases by selling long-term Treasuries. Losses were limited after a slide in the S&P 500 to a 1-week low boosted the safe-haven demand for T-notes.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.25%) this morning is up +0.285 (+0.30%) at a fresh 11-1/3 year high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0045 (-0.40%) at a 5-week low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.13 (-0.11%). The dollar index on Tuesday posted a 11-1/3 year high but shed its advance and closed lower: Dollar index -0.079 (-0.08%), EUR/USD -0.00077 (-0.07%), USD/JPY -0.402 (-0.33%). Bearish factors included (1) a rally in USD/JPY after a slide in stocks boosted safe-haven demand for the yen, and (2) the +2.9% m/m increase in German Jan retail sales, the largest monthly increase in 7 years which was supportive for EUR/USD.
Apr WTI crude oil (CLJ15 +0.79%) this morning is up +25 cents (+0.49%) and Apr gasoline (RBJ15 -1.21%) is down -0.0188 (-0.96%). Apr crude and Apr gasoline prices on Tuesday closed higher: CLJ5 +0.93 (+1.88%), RBJ5 +0.0427 (+2.25%). Bullish factors included (1) a weaker dollar, and (2) expectations for Wednesday’s EIA data to show gasoline inventories fell -1.75 million bbl and distillate stockpiles declined -2.0 million bbl. Gains in crude were muted on expectations that Wednesday’s EIA data will show crude supplies rose +4.0 million bbl to the highest since EIA data began in 1982.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR03/04/2015

US	0700 ET	Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous -3.5% with purchase sub-index +4.6% and refi sub-index -7.5%.
	0815 ET	Feb ADP employment change expected +220,000, Jan +213,000. Benchmark revisions.
	0900 ET	Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks on the economic outlook and monetary policy to the Lake Forest-Lake Bluff Rotary Club 2015 Economic Breakfast.
	0945 ET	Final-Feb Markit U.S. services PMI expected unrevised at 57.0, early-Feb +2.8 to 57.0. Final-Feb Markit U.S. composite PMI, prelim-Feb +2.4 to 56.8.
	1000 ET	Feb ISM non-manufacturing index expected -0.2 to 56.5, Jan +0.2 to 56.7.
	1030 ET	EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
	1300 ET	Kansas City Fed President Esther George speaks on the economy at an event in Kansas City, MO.
	1400 ET	Fed Beige Book.
GER	0355 ET	Revised German Feb Markit services PMI, previous +1.5 to 55.5.
EUR	0400 ET	Revised Eurozone Feb Markit composite PMI, previous +0.9 to 53.5.
	0500 ET	Eurozone Jan retail sales expected +0.2% m/m and +2.3% y/y, Dec +0.3% m/m and +2.8% y/y.
UK	0430 ET	UK Feb Markit/CIPS services PMI expected +0.3 to 57.5, Jan 57.2.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR03/04/2015

Company	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
PetSmart Inc	PETM US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	1.373
Halyard Health Inc	HYH US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	0.765
VWR Corp	VWR US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	0.367
Fastenal Co	FAST US	7:00	February 2015 Sales and Revenue Release	2015
Abercrombie & Fitch Co	ANF US	7:30	Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	1.147
Brown-Forman Corp	BF/B US	8:00	Q3 2015 Earnings Release	Q3 2015	0.864
Abercrombie & Fitch Co	ANF US	8:30	Q4 2015 Earnings Call	Q4 2015
VWR Corp	VWR US	8:30	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
Exxon Mobil Corp	XOM US	9:00	Analyst Meeting	Y 2015
Progressive Corp/The	PGR US	9:00	Investor Relations Conference Call
Halyard Health Inc	HYH US	9:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
Cabela's Inc	CAB US	9:30	Analyst & Investor Day	Y 2015
Honeywell International Inc	HON US	10:00	Investor Conference	Y 2015
Brown-Forman Corp	BF/B US	10:00	Q3 2015 Earnings Call	Q3 2015
Tyco International Plc	TYC US	10:00	Annual General Meeting	Y 2015
Middleby Corp/The	MIDD US	10:30	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
H&R Block Inc	HRB US	16:30	Q3 2015 Earnings Call	Q3 2015
H&R Block Inc	HRB US	Aft-mkt	Q3 2015 Earnings Release	Q3 2015	-0.166
Greif Inc	GEF US	Aft-mkt	Q1 2015 Earnings Release	Q1 2015	0.355
Helmerich & Payne Inc	HP US		Annual General Meeting	Y 2015
Hill-Rom Holdings Inc	HRC US		Annual General Meeting
Apple Inc	AAPL US		Trial Begins-U.S. Ct of Appeals: Apple vs. Samsung in Patent-Infringement Case
Manitowoc Co Inc/The	MTW US		ITC Final Decision Due on Manitowoc vs. Sany Heavy Patent-Infringement Case
PTC Inc	PTC US		Annual General Meeting
AutoNation Inc	AN US		February 2015 Sales and Revenue Release	2015
AECOM	ACM US		Annual General Meeting
Xcel Energy Inc	XEL US		Investor Meeting - Boston	Y 2015

BARCHART MORNING CALL 12/15

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Monday, December 15th, 2014View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

March E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 +0.72%) this morning are up +0.80% and European stocks are up +0.46% as energy producers gained after the price of crude oil rebounded from a 5-1/2 year low. An increase in M&A activity is also pushing stock prices higher as PetSmart jumped nearly 6% in premarket trading after it agreed to be purchased by a group led by BC Partners for $8.3 billion. The Russian ruble plunged to yet another record low of 59.7684 per dollar on concern that sinking oil prices and economic sanctions against Russia may tip the Russian economy into recession. Asian stocks closed mostly lower: Japan -1.57%, Hong Kong -0.95%, China +0.75%, Taiwan -0.46%, Australia -0.64%, Singapore -0.90%, South Korea -0.07%, India -0.11%. Japanese stocks fell after Japan's quarterly Tankan business conditions index for large manufacturers unexpectedly fell, while Chinese stocks rose, led by a rally in construction and railway companies, on speculation the government will take more steps to support growth. Commodity prices are mixed. Jan crude oil (CLF15 +0.81%) is up +0.61% and rebounded from a fresh 5-1/2 year low after Libya's National Oil Corp. declared force majeure at the ports of Es Sider and Ras Lanuf with a combined capacity of 560,000 bpd after clashes with rebels at the oil ports forced their closure. Jan gasoline (RBF15 +1.19%) is up +1.03%. Feb gold (GCG15 -0.78%) is down -0.89%. Mar copper (HGH15 +0.09%) is up +0.07%. Agriculture prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.15%) is up +0.15%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.24%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.01%. Mar T-note prices (ZNH15 -0.22%) are down -10 ticks.
The UAE energy minister said that OPEC will stand by its decision not to cut oil output even if crude prices fall as low as $40 a barrel and will wait at least three months before considering an emergency meeting.
The Japan Q4 Tankan large manufacturing business conditions unexpectedly fell to 12 from 13 in Q3, weaker than expectations of unchanged at 13.
ECB Governing Council member Nowotny said the "prospect of missing our target on price stability in the longer term" in connection with low growth would be a condition that could trigger quantitative easing.
UK Dec Rightmove house prices fell -3.3% m/m and matched the Dec 2012 decline as the biggest drop in 12 3/4 years. On an annual basis, Dec Rightmove house prices rose +7.0% y/y.
The UK Dec CBI trends total orders unexpectedly rose +2 to 5, stronger than expectations of unch at 3, Dec CBI trends selling prices unexpectedly rose +8 to 7, more than expectations of -2 to -3 and the highest in 8 months.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Today’s Nov industrial production report is expected to show a strong increase of +0.7%, rebounding from October’s weak report of -0.1% m/m.  Today’s Dec Empire manufacturing index is expected to show a small +1.84 point increase to 12.00, adding to the +3.99 point increase to 10.16 seen in November.  Today’s Dec NAHB housing market index is expected to show a +1 point increase to 59, adding to November’s +4 point increase to 58.  There is only one of the Russell 1000 companies that reports earnings today:  VeriFone (consensus $0.41).  Equity conferences this week include: Macquarie Mobile Corporate Day on Tue, and Sanford C. Bernstein Technology Innovation Summit on Tue-Wed.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Exxon Mobil (XOM -2.91%) was upgraded to 'Market Perform' from 'Underperform' at BMO Capital.
Oracle (ORCL -1.99%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Equal Weight' at Morgan Stanley.
PG&E (PCG -1.62%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Neutral' at JPMorgan Chase.
Citigroup keeps a 'Buy' rating on Marriot (MAR -1.11%) and raises its price target on the stock to $88 from $76.
Entergy (ETR +1.78%) was upgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Sell' at Citigroup.
Darden Restaurants (DRI -0.78%) was upgraded to 'Market Perform' from 'Underperform' at Telsey Advisory.
United Parcel Service (UPS -0.57%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Deutsche Bank.
Encore Capital (ECPG -0.99%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Neutral' at Piper Jaffray.
Cirrus Logic (CRUS -0.63%) was upgraded two notches to 'Overweight' from 'Underweight' at Barclays.
Bob Evans (BOBE +0.42%) said that CEO Steve Davis will step down.
PetSmart (PETM -0.98%) is up nearly 6% in premarket trading after a group led by BC Partners agreed to buy the company for $8.3 billion.
Point72 Asset reported a 5.1% passive stake in Jones Energy (JONE -1.90%) .
Discovery Capital reported a 8.9% passive stake in Bob Evans (BOBE +0.42%) .
Fitch downgraded France's long-term foreign and local currency issuer default ratings to 'AA' from 'AA+' with a stable outlook.

MARKET COMMENTS

Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 +0.72%) this morning are up +16.00 points (+0.80%). The S&P 500 index on Friday dropped to a 5-week low and closed sharply lower: S&P 500 -1.62%, Dow Jones -1.79%, Nasdaq -1.11%. Negative factors included (1) concerns about a global economic slowdown after China’s Nov industrial production and the Eurozone’s Oct industrial output reports were both weaker than expected, and (2) weakness in energy producers after crude oil slumped to a 5-1/2 year low. Stock prices briefly pared losses after the University of Michigan’s early-Dec U.S. consumer confidence rose +5.0 to 93.8, more than expectations of +0.7 to 89.5 and the highest in 8 years.
Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH15 -0.22%) this morning are down -10 ticks. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices on Friday climbed to a 1-3/4 month high and closed higher: TYH5 +21.50, FVH5 +12.75. Bullish factors included (1) the plunge in crude oil to a 5-1/2 year low, which prompted the 10-year breakeven inflation expectations rate to tumble to a 4-1/4 year low, (2) increased safe-haven demand for Treasuries after the S&P 500 fell to a 5-week low, and (3) carry-over support from a rally in German bund prices to an all-time high.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.15%) this morning is up +0.136 (+0.15%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0030 (-0.24%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.01 (-0.01%). The dollar index on Friday closed lower. Closes: Dollar index -0.300 (-0.34%), EUR/USD +0.00481 (+0.39%), USD/JPY +0.101 (+0.09%). The main bearish factor was short-covering in the yen ahead of Sunday’s elections in Japan where Prime Minister Abe’s party is expected to win in a landslide, which will allow him to push ahead with his fiscal policies. The dollar rebounded from its worst levels after the University of Michigan’s early-Dec U.S. consumer confidence index unexpected rose sharply to an 8-year high.
Jan WTI crude oil (CLF15 +0.81%) this morning is up +35 cents (+0.61%) and Jan gasoline (RBF15 +1.19%) is up +0.0164 (+1.03%). Jan crude and Jan gasoline prices Friday sold off with Jan crude at a 5-1/2 year low and Jan gasoline at a 5-1/4 year low. Closes: CLF5 -2.14 (-3.57%), RBF5 -0.0271 (-1.67%). Bearish factors included (1) the IEA’s cut in its global oil demand forecast for the fourth time in five months as the IEA said 2015 global oil demand will grow by only 900,000 bpd to 93.3 million bpd, -230,000 bpd less than previously forecast, and (2) energy demand concerns in China, the world’s second-largest crude oil consumer, after the weaker-than-expected Chinese Nov industrial production report.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR12/15/2014

US	0830 ET	Dec Empire manufacturing index expected +1.84 to 12.00, Nov +3.99 to 10.16.
	0915 ET	Nov industrial production expected +0.7%, Oct -0.1% m/m. Nov capacity utilization expected +0.5 to 79.4%, Oct -0.3 to 78.9%.
	1000 ET	Dec NAHB housing market index expected +1 to 59, Nov +4 to 58.
	1100 ET	USDA weekly grain export inspections.
UK	0600 ET	UK Dec CBI trends total orders expected unch at 3. Dec CBI trends selling prices expected -2 to -3, Nov -1.
CHI	2045 ET	China Dec HSBC flash manufacturing PMI expected -0.2 to 49.8, Nov -0.4 to 50.0.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR12/15/2014

Company	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
AGCO Corp	AGCO US	8:30	Analyst Meeting	Y 2014
Honeywell International Inc	HON US	9:00	Q4 2015 Guidance Call	Q4 2015
American Water Works Co Inc	AWK US	11:00	FY 2014 Analyst, Investor and Sha	Y 2014
Hewlett-Packard Co	HPQ US	12:00	Business Update Call
VeriFone Systems Inc	PAY US	16:01	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	0.41
Coca-Cola Co/The	KO US	16:30	Business Update Call
VeriFone Systems Inc	PAY US	16:30	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014

BARCHART MORNING CALL 11/19

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Wednesday, November 19th, 2014View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 +0.04%) this morning are down -0.05% ahead of the minutes of the Oct 28-29 FOMC meeting, while European stocks are up +0.24% at a 1-1/2 week high as health-care stocks gained on speculation of increased M&A activity. Yields on European government bonds rose after ECB policy maker Knot said he was skeptical about the benefits of quantitative easing. Asian stocks closed mostly lower: Japan -0.32%, Hong Kong -0.66%, China -0.16%, Taiwan +1.18%, Australia -0.57%, Singapore +0.63%, South Korea -0.13%, India -0.46%. Commodity prices are mixed. Dec crude oil (CLZ14 +0.20%) is up +0.27%. Dec gasoline (RBZ14 +0.90%) is up +0.75%. Dec gold (GCZ14 -0.18%) is up +0.06%. Dec copper (HGZ14 +0.38%) is up +0.32%. Agriculture prices are weaker with Dec corn and Jan soybeans at 1-week lows as the U.S. harvest nears completion. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.13%) is up +0.10%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is unch. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.64% at a fresh 7-year high after the BOJ concluded a 2-day policy meeting and maintained record stimulus and after BOJ Governor Kuroda warned that it's possible that core inflation may fall below 1%. Dec T-note prices (ZNZ14 -0.15%) are down -6.5 ticks.
Eurozone Sep construction output fell -1.8% m/m, the biggest decline in 20 months. On an annual basis Sep construction output fell -1.7% y/y, the most in 11 months.
Japan Oct nationwide department store sales fell-2.2% y/y, the seventh consecutive month that sales have declined year-over-year.
The Japan Sep all-industry activity index rose +1.0% m/m, right on expectations and the most in 6 months.
The Japan Sep leading index CI was left unrevised at 105.6. The Sep coincident index was revised upward to 109.8 from the originally reported 109.7.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Today’s Oct housing starts report is expected to show a +0.8% increase to 1.025 million, adding to the +6.3% increase to 1.017 million seen in September. The markets suspect that today’s minutes from the Oct 28-29 FOMC meeting may be a bit bearish since the FOMC at that meeting ended QE3, upgraded its assessment of the labor market, and slightly revised its interest rate guidance language. There are 11 of the Russell 1000 companies report earnings today with notable reports including: Target (consensus $0.47), Lowe's (0.58), Staples (0.36), L Brands (0.40), Williams-Sonoma (0.63), Salesforce.com (0.13).
Equity conferences during the remainder of the week include: Morgan Stanley Global Consumer & Retail Conference on Tue-Wed, Stifel Healthcare Conference on Tue-Wed, UBS Global Technology Conference on Tue-Wed, Los Angeles Auto Show-Press & Trade Days on Tue-Thu, Citi Financial Technology Conference on Wed, Jefferies Global Healthcare Conference on Wed, World Internet Conference on Wed, Keefe, Bruyette, & Woods Securities Brokerage & Market Structure Conference on Wed, Vertical Research Partners Paper and Packaging Conference on Wed, Barclays Global Automotive Conference on Wed-Thu, Citigroup Global Financial Conference on Wed-Thu, Goldman Sachs Global Metals & Mining/Steel Conference on Thu, Wells Fargo Securities E-Cig Conference on Thu, Morgan Stanley European Technology, Media & Telecoms Conference on Fri.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Consolidated Edison (ED +0.78%) was downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Neutral' at UBS.
Columbia Sportswear (COLM +0.48%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Citigroup.
JM Smucker (SJM +0.44%) reported Q2 EPS of $1.53, right on consensus, although Q2 revenue of $1.48 billion was less than consensus of $1.49 billion.
Lowe's (LOW -0.61%) rose 2% in pre-market trading after it reported Q3 EPS of 59 cents, better than consensus of 58 cents,and then raised guidance on fiscal 2014 EPS to $2.68, above consensus of $2.63.
Staples (SPLS -1.62%) climbed 2% in pre-market trading after it reported Q3 EPS of 37 cents, higher than consensus of 36 cents.
Mallinckrodt PLC (MNK +0.42%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.68, well above consensus of $1.41.
Integrated Core Strategies reported a 5.1% passive stake in Aegerion (AEGR +2.86%) .
PetSmart (PETM +0.01%) rose nearly 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 EPS of $1.02, higher than consensus of 94 cents, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2014 EPS to $4.39-$4.43, above consensus of $4.33.
La-Z-Boy (LZB -0.70%) jumped over 4% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 EPS of 36 cents, better than consensus of 34 cents.
Jack in the Box (JACK +1.72%) rose over 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 operating EPS of 54 cents, above consensus of 53 cents.
Vipshop (VIPS -1.17%) reported Q3 EPS of 8 cents, better than consensus of 7 cents.

MARKET COMMENTS

Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 +0.04%) this morning are down -1.00 point (-0.05%). The S&P 500 index on Tuesday pushed up to a new record high and closed higher: S&P 500 +0.51%, Dow Jones +0.23%, Nasdaq +0.67%. Supportive factors included (1) carry-over support from a rally in European equity markets after the German Nov ZEW survey expectations of economic growth rose for the first time in 11 months and posted a 4-month high, and (2) strength in homebuilders after the NAHB Nov housing market index rose +4 to 58, better than expectations of +1 to 55.
Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ14 -0.15%) this morning are down -6.5 ticks. Dec 10-year T-note futures prices on Tuesday closed higher: TYZ4 +5.50, FVZ4 +3.25. Bullish factors included (1) increased safe-haven demand on concern about escalation of the crisis in Ukraine after Ukraine President Poroshenko said his country is ready for “total war” with Russian President Putin’s troops, and (2) carry-over support from a rally in European government bonds when ECB President Draghi said that sovereign-bond buying could be a stimulus measure to improve the Eurozone’s “abysmal” economic performance.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.13%) this morning is up +0.086 (+0.10%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is unch. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.75 (+0.64%) at a fresh 7-year high. The dollar index on Tuesday closed lower. Closes: Dollar index -0.351 (-0.40%), EUR/USD +0.00859 (+0.69%), USD/JPY +0.209 (+0.18%). Bearish factors included (1) strength in EUR/USD after the German Nov ZEW survey pf expectations of economic growth rose to a 4-month high, and (2) weakness in the yen as USD/JPY posted a new 7-year high after Japanese Prime Minister Abe called for an early election and suspended a planned sales-tax increase.
Dec WTI crude oil (CLZ14 +0.20%) this morning is up +20 cents (+0.27%) and Dec gasoline (RBZ14 +0.90%) is up +0.0153 (+0.75%). Dec crude and Dec gasoline on Tuesday settled mixed. Closes: CLZ4 -1.03 (-1.36%), RBZ4 +0.0169 (+0.83%). Supportive factors included (1) a weak dollar, and (2) the rally in the S&P 500 to a record high, which may boost confidence in the economic outlook and energy demand. Negative factors included (1) speculation that OPEC will be unable to agree on production cuts at next week’s meeting, and (2) a report from Goldman Sachs that said a “large” production cut by OPEC to prop up prices isn’t in the cartel’s interest as it would likely bolster an expansion of U.S. shale oil production.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR11/19/2014

US	0700 ET	Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous -0.9% with purchase sub-index +1.1% and refi sub-index -1.9%.
	0830 ET	Oct housing starts expected +0.8% to 1.025 million, Sep +6.3% to 1.017 million. Oct building permits expected +0.9% to 1.040 million, Sep +2.8% to 1.031 million.
	1030 ET	EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
	1400 ET	Minutes of the Oct 28-29 FOMC meeting.
JPN	0000 ET	Revised Japan Sep leading index CI, previous 105.6. Revised Sep coincident index, previous 109.7.
	1950 ET	Japan Oct trade balance expected -1.027 trillion yen, Sep -960.6 billion yen. Oct exports expected +4.5% y/y, Sep +6.9% y/y. Oct imports expected +3.4% y/y, Sep +6.2% y/y.
	2035 ET	Japan Nov Markit/JMMA manufacturing PMI expected +0.3 to 52.7, Oct 52.4.
	n/a	BOJ announces interest rate decision after 2-day meeting.
UK	0430 ET	Minutes of the Nov 5-6 BOE meeting.
EUR	0500 ET	Eurozone Sep construction output, Aug +1.5% m/m and -0.3% y/y.
CHI	2045 ET	China Nov HSBC manufacturing PMI expected -0.2 to 50.2, Oct 50.4.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR11/19/2014

Company Name	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Target Corp	TGT US	Bef-mkt	Q3 2015 Earnings Release	Q3 2015	0.469
Lowe's Cos Inc	LOW US	Bef-mkt	Q3 2015 Earnings Release	Q3 2015	0.582
JM Smucker Co/The	SJM US	Bef-mkt	Q2 2015 Earnings Release	Q2 2015	1.532
Staples Inc	SPLS US	Bef-mkt	Q3 2015 Earnings Release	Q3 2015	0.362
Staples Inc	SPLS US	8:00	Q3 2015 Earnings Call	C3 2015
Staples Inc	SPLS US	8:00	Q3 2015 Earnings Call	Q3 2015
JM Smucker Co/The	SJM US	8:30	Q2 2015 Earnings Call	Q2 2015
Mallinckrodt PLC	MNK US	8:30	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
Atmos Energy Corp	ATO US	9:00	Analyst Meeting	Y 2014
Lowe's Cos Inc	LOW US	9:00	Q3 2015 Earnings Call	Q3 2015
National Oilwell Varco Inc	NOV US	9:00	Analyst Day - Day 2	Y 2014
CBRE Group Inc	CBG US	9:00	Business Review Day	Y 2014
Liberty Interactive Corp	QVCA US	9:00	Investor Meeting	Y 2014
QUALCOMM Inc	QCOM US	10:00	Analyst Meeting	Y 2014
PetSmart Inc	PETM US	10:00	Q3 2015 Earnings Call	Q3 2015
Crown Castle International Corp	CCI US	10:00	Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting - M&A Vote	Y 2014
Target Corp	TGT US	10:30	Q3 2015 Earnings Call	Q3 2015
Sysco Corp	SYY US	11:00	Annual General Meeting	Y 2014
Clorox Co/The	CLX US	12:00	Annual General Meeting
Liberty Media Corp	LMCA US	12:30	Investor Meeting	Y 2014
Liberty Broadband Corp	LBRDA US	13:35	Investor Meeting	Y 2014
Charter Communications Inc	CHTR US	13:40	Investor Meeting	Y 2014
Alliant Techsystems Inc	ATK US	16:30	Business Update Call
Manitowoc Co Inc/The	MTW US	17:00	ITC Final Decision Due on Manitowoc vs. Sany Heavy Patent-Infringement Case
Williams-Sonoma Inc	WSM US	17:00	Q3 2015 Earnings Call	Q3 2015
Keurig Green Mountain Inc	GMCR US	17:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
salesforce.com inc	CRM US	17:00	Q3 2015 Earnings Call	Q3 2015
L Brands Inc	LB US	Aft-mkt	Q3 2015 Earnings Release	Q3 2015	0.396
Williams-Sonoma Inc	WSM US	Aft-mkt	Q3 2015 Earnings Release	Q3 2015	0.631
Keurig Green Mountain Inc	GMCR US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	0.772
salesforce.com inc	CRM US	Aft-mkt	Q3 2015 Earnings Release	Q3 2015	0.128
Copa Holdings SA	CPA US	Aft-mkt	Q3 2014 Earnings Release	Q3 2014	1.997
ResMed Inc	RMD US	18:00	Annual General Meeting	Y 2014
Campbell Soup Co	CPB US		Annual General Meeting
Questar Corp	STR US		Roadshow - Northwest	Y 2014
Raymond James Financial Inc	RJF US		October 2014 Sales and Revenue Release - Operating Data	2014
Terex Corp	TEX US		Investor Day
Concur Technologies Inc	CNQR US		Special Meeting - M&A Vote
Global Payments Inc	GPN US		Annual General Meeting
TRW Automotive Holdings Corp	TRW US		Special Meeting - M&A Vote
SandRidge Energy Inc	SD US		Q3 2014 Earnings Release	Q3 2014	0.042
Mallinckrodt PLC	MNK US		Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014