BARCHART MORNING CALL 3/26

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Thursday, March 26th, 2015View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

June E-mini S&Ps (ESM15 -0.66%) this morning are down -0.63% and European stocks are down -1.17%, both at 1-1/2 week lows, after Saudi Arabia led a coalition of 10 Sunni-ruled nations in air strikes against Shiite Houthi rebels in Yemen. Airline stocks are lower in pre-market trading as crude oil surged to a 2-1/2 week high. Asian stocks closed mostly lower: Japan -1.39%, Hong Kong -0.13%, China +0.24%, Taiwan -0.50%, Australia -1.58%, Singapore +0.37%, South Korea -1.14%, India -2.33%. Commodity prices are mostly higher. May crude oil (CLK15 +4.10%) is up +3.70% and May gasoline (RBK15 +2.07%) is up +1.77%, both at 2-1/2 week highs, on concern the Yemen conflict could disrupt global crude oil supplies. Yemen is located on the Bab el-Mandeb strait that links the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea, the fourth-biggest chokepoint for crude supplies in the world. According to the EIA, about 3.8 million bpd passed through Bab el-Mandeb in 2013 and a closure of the strait would force tankers to sail around the southern tip of Africa to reach European, North American and South American markets. Apr gold (GCJ15 +0.94%) is up +0.86% at a 3-week high on increased safe-haven demand due to an escalation of violence in Yemen. May copper (HGK15 +1.50%) is up +1.49%. Agriculture prices are higher. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.47%) is down -0.51% at a 3-week low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.35% at a 3-week high. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.65% at a 1-month low as the conflict in Yemen boosted the safe-haven demand for the yen. Jun T-note prices (ZNM15 +0.02%) are up +4.5 ticks.
German Apr GfK consumer confidence rose +0.3 to 10.0, stronger than expectations of +0.1 to 9.8 and the highest since the data series began in 2005.
Eurozone Feb M3 money supply rose +4.0% y/y and +3.8% 3-mon avg, weaker than expectations of +4.3% y/y and +4.0% 3-mon avg.
UK Feb retail sales ex-autos rose +0.7% m/m and +5.1% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.4% m/m and +4.2% y/y. Feb retail sales including autos rose +0.7% m/m and +5.7% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.4% m/m and +4.7% y/y.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

U.S. economic reports today include (1) today's weekly unemployment claims report (initial claims expected -1,000 to 290,000 and continuing claims expected -17,000 to 2.400 million), and (2) today's preliminary-March Markit U.S. services PMI (expected -0.1 to 57.0). There are 4 of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: Accenture (consensus $1.07), ConAgra Foods (0.52), Signet Jewelers (3.04), GameStop (2.16). U.S. IPOs that price today include: SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG), and Jernigan Capital (JCAP). U.S. IPOs that start trading today include: Franklin Financial Network (FRFN). Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Leerink Booth Tours At American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons on Wed-Thu, CIBC Real Estate Conference on Thu, Nomura - Conference: Global Chemicals Industry Leaders Conference - London on Thu, Jefferies Animal Health Summit on Thu, Gabelli Specialty Chemicals Conference on Thu.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

SanDisk (SNDK -4.21%) lowered Q1 revenue guidance to $1.3 billion from $1.4 billion-$1.45 billion, below consensus of $1.44 billion.
ConAgra Foods (CAG +0.90%) reported Q3 EPS of 59 cents, higher thah consensus of 52 cents.
Accenture PLC (ACN -1.34%) reported Q2 EPS of $1.08, better than consensus of $1.07.
Charles Schwab (SCHW -1.95%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Underweight' at Barclays.
Dr Pepper Snapple (DPS -0.57%) and Con-way (CNW -1.50%) were both upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Stifel.
lululemon (LULU -3.70%) reported Q4 EPS of 78 cents, higher than consensus of 73 cents, but then lowered guidance on fiscal 2015 EPS to $1.85-$1.90, below consensus of $2.06.
ASML ({=ASML was downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Hold' at Deutsche Bank.
Man Group reported a 5.6% passive stake in 1-800-Flowers.com (FLWS -4.83%) .
LifePoint (LPNT -2.30%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Mizuho.
Red Hat (RHT -1.37%) reported Q4 EPS of 43 cents, above consensus of 41 cents.
Verint Systems (VRNT -1.08%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.19, better than consensus of $1.15, but thenlowered guidance on fiscal 2015 EPS to $3.55-$3.75, below consensus of $3.76.
PVH Corp. (PVH +0.43%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.76, higher than consensus of $1.73, but then lowered guidance on fiscal 2015 EPS to $6.75-$6.90, below consensus of $7.37.

MARKET COMMENTS

Jun E-mini S&Ps (ESM15 -0.66%) this morning are down -13.00 points (-0.63%) at a 1-1/2 week low. Wednesday's Closes: S&P 500 -1.46%, Dow Jones -1.62%, Nasdaq -2.30%. The stock market on Wednesday sold-off sharply with the S&P 500 at a 1-week low after U.S. Feb durable goods orders unexpectedly declined (-1.4% and -0.4% ex transportation vs. expectations of +0.2% and +0.2% ex transportation). Another negative for equites was the slide in technology stocks led by losses in Microsoft, Intel and Micron Technology.
Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM15 +0.02%) this morning are up +4.5 ticks. Wednesday's Closes: TYM5 -9.00, FVM5 -6.00. Jun T-notes climbed to a 1-1/2 month high after U.S. Feb durable goods orders unexpectedly declined and after Chicago Fed President Evans said he sees no compelling reason for us to be in a hurry to tighten financial conditions until" it's clear that inflation will reach the Fed's 2.0% target within one or two years. T-note prices erased their gains and closed lower, however, on weak demand for the Treasury's $35 billion auction of 5-year T-notes that had a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.35, below the 12-auction average of 2.68 and the lowest since July 2009.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.47%) this morning is down -0.494 (-0.51%) at a 3-week low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +00038 (+0.35%) at a 3-week high. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.78 (-0.65%) at a 1-month low. Wednesday's closes: Dollar index -0.214 (-0.22%), EUR/USD +0.00458 (+0.42%), USD/JPY -0.263 (-0.22%). The dollar closed lower yesterday on negative factors that included (1) the unexpected decline in U.S. Feb durable goods orders, which may delay Fed rate hikes, and (2) comments from Chicago Fed President Evans who said inflation remains too low to justify an interest rate increase this year.
May WTI crude oil (CLK15 +4.10%) this morning is up +$1.82 a barrel (+3.70%) and May gasoline (RBK15 +2.07%) is up +0.0324 (+1.77%), both at 2-1/2 week highs. Wednesday's closes: CLK5 +1.70 (+3.58), RBK5 +0.0302 (+1.68%). May crude and gasoline posted 1-1/2 week highs and closed higher. A weaker dollar boosted energy prices despite bearish factors that included (1) the +8.17 million bbl increase in weekly EIA crude inventories to 466.7 million bbl, more than expectations of +4.75 million bbl and the most since weekly EIA data began in 1982, and (2) the +1.9 million bbl increase in crude supplies at Cushing, OK, delivery point of WTI futures, to a record 56.3 million bbl (data since 2004).

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR03/26/2015

US	0435 ET	St. Louis Fed President James Bullard delivers a public lecture at an event in Frankfurt on the U.S. economy and monetary policy.
	0830 ET	Weekly initial unemployment claims expected -1,000 to 290,000, previous +1,000 to 291,000. Weekly continuing claims expected -17,000 to 2.400 million, previous -11,000 to 2.417 million.
	0830 ET	USDA weekly Export Sales.
	0900 ET	Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart speaks on monetary policy and the economic outlook at the Engage International Investment Education Symposium in Detroit.
	0945 ET	Preliminary Markit Mar services PMI expected -0.1 to 57.0, Feb +2.9 to 57.1.
	1100 ET	Mar Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity survey expected unch at 1, Feb -2 to 1.
	1300 ET	Treasury auctions $29 billion 7-year T-notes.
GER	0300 ET	German Apr GfK consumer confidence expected +0.1 to 9.8, Mar 9.7.
EUR	0500 ET	Eurozone Feb M3 money supply expected +4.3% y/y and 4.0% 3-mon avg, Jan +4.1% y/y and +3.6% 3-mon avg.
	n/a	ECB President Mario Draghi will address Italys Lower House Finance, Budget and European Affairs Committees.
UK	0530 ET	UK Feb retail sales ex-autos expected +0.4% m/m and +4.2% y/y, Jan -0.7% m/m and +4.8% y/y. Feb retail sales including autos expected +0.4% m/m and +4.7% y/y, Jan -0.3% m/m and +5.4% y/y.
	0700 ET	UK Mar CBI reported sales expected +17 to 18, Feb 1.
JPN	1930 ET	Japan Feb jobless rate expected -0.1 to 3.5%, Jan 3.6%. Feb job-to-applicant ratio expected +0.01 to 1.15, Jan 1.14.
	1930 ET	Japan Feb overall household spending expected -3.2% y/y, Jan -5.1% y/y.
	1930 ET	Japan Feb national CPI expected +2.3% y/y, Jan +2.4% y/y. Feb national CPI ex-fresh food expected +2.1% y/y, Jan +2.2% y/y. Feb national CPI ex food & energy expected +2.1% y/y, Jan +2.1% y/y.
	1930 ET	Japan Mar Tokyo CPI expected +2.3% y/y, Feb +2.3% y/y. Mar Tokyo CPI ex-fresh food expected +2.2% y/y, Feb +2.2% y/y. Mar Tokyo CPI ex food & energy expected +1.7% y/y, Feb 1.7% y/y.
	1950 ET	Japan Feb retail sales expected +0.9% m/m and -1.5% y/y, Jan -1.9% m/m and -2.0% y/y.
CHI	2130 ET	China Feb industrial profits, Jan -8.0% y/y.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR03/26/2015

Company	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Signet Jewelers Ltd	SIG US	7:00	Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	3.038
Accenture PLC	ACN US	7:01	Q2 2015 Earnings Release	Q2 2015	1.072
ConAgra Foods Inc	CAG US	7:30	Q3 2015 Earnings Release	Q3 2015	0.52
Accenture PLC	ACN US	8:00	Q2 2015 Earnings Call	Q2 2015
Signet Jewelers Ltd	SIG US	8:30	Q4 2015 Earnings Call	Q4 2015
PVH Corp	PVH US	9:00	Q4 2015 Earnings Call	Q4 2015
ConAgra Foods Inc	CAG US	9:30	Q3 2015 Earnings Call	Q3 2015
Sempra Energy	SRE US	13:00	Analyst Conference	Y 2015
GameStop Corp	GME US	17:00	Q4 2015 Earnings Call	Q4 2015
GameStop Corp	GME US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	2.164
VeriFone Systems Inc	PAY US		Annual General Meeting

BARCHART MORNING CALL 3/12

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Thursday, March 12th, 2015View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

March E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 +0.21%) this morning are up +0.28% led by a rally in U.S. bank stocks after 29 banks passed stress tests Wednesday and several lenders boosted their share buyback programs. European stocks are down -0.05% after Eurozone Jan industrial production unexpectedly declined. Yields on European government bonds fell to record lows, with the yield on Germany's 10-year bund sliding to an all-time low of 0.186%, after ECB Executive Board member Coeure said the ECB has bought 9.8 billion-euros of assets during the first three days of its QE program with an average maturity of 9 years. Asian stocks closed mostly higher: Japan +1.43%, Hong Kong +0.34%, China +1.93%, Taiwan +0.76%, Australia +0.98%, Singapore -0.15%, South Korea -0.75%, India +0.95%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index rose to the highest in 14-3/4 years, led by strength in exporters, as the yen held near a 7-1/2 year low against the dollar. China’s Shanghai Stock Index climbed to a 6-week high on signs that monetary easing is spurring demand for loans after data showed China Feb aggregate financing, China's broadest measure of new credit, rose more than expected. Commodity prices are mostly higher. Apr crude oil (CLJ15 +0.91%) is up +0.50%. Apr gasoline (RBJ15 +1.45%) is up +1.16%. Apr gold (GCJ15 +0.73%) is up +0.82%. May copper (HGK15 +2.84%) is up +2.57%. Agriculture prices are mostly higher. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.77%) is down -0.66%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.62%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.31%. Jun T-note prices (ZNM15 +0.22%) are up +11 ticks.
China Feb new yuan loans were 1.020 trillion yuan, more than expectations of 1.000 trillion yuan, Feb aggregate financing, China's broadest measure of new credit, was 1.35 trillion yuan ($215.5 billion), above expectations of 1.00 trillion yuan.
ECB Executive Board member Coeure said the ECB has bought 9.8 billion-euros of assets during the first three days of its QE program with an average maturity of 9 years, which is "very important" because it will affect the yield curve. He also said the ECB's QE program could go beyond Sep 2016 "if needed."
Eurozone Jan industrial production unexpectedly fell -0.1% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m. On an annual basis, Jan industrial production rose +1.2% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.1% y/y.
The Japan Feb consumer confidence index rose +1.6 to 40.7, stronger than expectations of +0.4 to 39.5 and the highest in 6 months.
The Japan Q1 BSI all-industry business conditions was 1.9, weaker than expectations of 6.0 and the lowest since Q1 of 2013. The Q1 BSI large manufacturing business conditions fell to 2.4 from 8.1 in Q4.
The Japan Jan tertiary industry index rose +1.4% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.5% m/m and the largest increase in 10 months.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Today’s Feb retail sales report is expected to show a fairly strong +0.5% increase ex-autos but increases of only +0.3% for both the headline report and the ex-gasoline report. Today's initial unemployment claims report is expected to show a decline of -15,000 while continuing claims are expected to show a decline of -21,000. Today’s Feb import price index is expected to show a small +0.2% m/m rebound after the plunge of -2.8% m/m seen in January. The Treasury today will sell $13 billion of 30-year T-bonds, concluding this week’s $58 billion coupon package.
There are three of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: Dollar General (consensus $1.17), Rice Energy (0.04), Ulta Salon (1.27). Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Barclays Capital Health Care Conference on Tue-Thu, Deutsche Bank Regional Banks Summit on Thu, Nomura - Conference: US Software Conference - New York on Thu.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Citigroup (C +2.15%) rose 3% in pre-market trading after it announced a $7.8 billion share buyback plan.
Morgan Stanley (MS +0.20%) gained over 2% in pre-market trading after it announced a $3.1 billion share repurchase plan.
Lumber Liquidators (LL +10.65%) lowered guidance on Q1 revenue to $253.6 million-$265.6 million, below consensus of $275.98 million.
The Children's Place (PLCE -0.41%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 94 cents, higher than consensus of 93 cents, but then said it sees fiscal 2015 same-store-sales flat to up 1% as it lowered guidance on fiscal 2015 adjusted EPS to $3.15-$3.30, below consensus of $3.41.
Men's Wearhouse (MW +0.33%) rose over 5% in after-hours trading after it reported a Q4 adjusted EPS loss of -3 cents, a smaller loss than consensus of -7 cents.
State Street (STT +1.51%) announced a $1.8 billion share buyback program.
JP Energy (JPEP +2.19%) reported a Q4 EPS loss of -51 cents, weaker than consensus of a 1 cent profit.
JPMorgan Chase (JPM +0.47%) announced a $6.4 billion share repurchase program.
Bank of America (BAC +2.03%) announced a $4 billion share repurchase program.
The Federal Reserve objected to the capital plans of Deutsche Bank Trust Corporation (DB +1.35%) and Banco Santander's (SAN +0.15%) Santander Holdings USA on qualitative concerns.
Scientific Games (SGMS -1.56%) reported a Q4 EPS loss of -55 cents, a smaller loss than consensus of -60 cents.
1-800-Flowers.com (FLWS +2.18%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at B. Riley with a price target of $15.
JetBlue (JBLU +0.94%) reported its traffic in February increased 10.0% from February 2014.

MARKET COMMENTS

Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 +0.21%) this morning are up +5.75 points (+0.28%). The S&P 500 index on Wednesday slid to a 1-month low and closed lower: S&P 500 -0.19%, Dow Jones -0.16%, Nasdaq -0.55%. Bearish factors included (1) concern about a Chinese economic slowdown after China Feb industrial production rose only +6.8% year-to-date, weaker than expectations of +7.7% and at the slowest pace of increase in 5-3/4 years, and (2) weakness in energy producers after crude oil fell to a 5-week low.
Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM15 +0.22%) this morning are up +11 ticks. Jun 10-year T-note futures prices on Wednesday closed higher. Closes: TYM5 +2.00, FVM5 -0.25. Bullish factors included (1) carry-over support from a rally in German bund prices to all-time highs, and (2) strong foreign demand for the Treasury’s $21 billion 10-year T-note auction where indirect bidders, a proxy for foreign buyers, bought 58.6% of the notes at auction, way above the 10-auction average of 47.1%.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.77%) this morning is down -0.663 (-0.66%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0065 (+0.62%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.38 (-0.31%). The dollar index on Wednesday posted a new 11-1/2 year high and closed higher: Dollar index +1.177 (+1.19%), EUR/USD -0.01504 (-1.41%), USD/JPY +0.317 (+0.26%). Bullish factors included (1) weakness in EUR/USD which slid to a new 11-3/4 year low as the ECB bought European government bonds on the third day of its QE program, and (2) heightened Greek default concerns which boosted the safe-haven demand for the dollar after the 10-year Greek bond yield rose to a 1-month high.
Apr WTI crude oil (CLJ15 +0.91%) this morning is up +24 cents (+0.50%) and Apr gasoline (RBJ15 +1.45%) is up +0.0211 (+1.16%). Apr crude oil and gasoline prices on Wednesday settled mixed with Apr crude at a 5-week low and Apr gasoline at a 2-1/2 week low: CLJ5 -0.12 (-0.25), RBJ5 +0.0081 (+0.45%). Bearish factors included (1) continued strength in the dollar as the dollar index rose to a new 11-1/2 year high, and (2) the +4.51 million bbl increase in weekly EIA crude inventories to 448.9 million bbl, the highest since EIA data began in 1982. Gasoline recovered its losses and closed higher on supply concerns due to the partial closure of the Houston Ship Channel for a third day because of a crash that has slowed output at 5 refineries with 1.34 million bpd of capacity.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR03/12/2015

US	0830 ET	Weekly initial unemployment claims expected -15,000 to 305,000, previous +7,000 to 320,000. Weekly continuing claims expected -21,000 to 2.400 million, previous +17,000 to 2.421 million.
	0830 ET	Feb retail sales expected +0.3% and +0.5% ex autos, Jan -0.8% and -0.9% ex autos. Feb retail sales ex-auto and gas expected +0.3%, Jan +0.2%.
	0830 ET	Feb import price index expected +0.2% m/m and -8.9% y/y, Jan -2.8% m/m and -8.0% y/y.
	0830 ET	USDA weekly Export Sales.
	1000 ET	Jan business inventories expected +0.1%, Dec +0.1%.
	1100 ET	Treasury announces amount of 10-year TIPS to be auctioned Mar 19, previous $15 billion.
	1200 ET	Q4 household change in net worth, Q4 -$141 billion.
	1300 ET	Treasury auctions $13 billion 30-year T-bonds.
	1400 ET	Feb monthly budget statement expected -$191.0 billion, Jan -$17.5 billion.
JPN	0100 ET	Japan Feb consumer confidence index expected +0.4 to 39.5, Jan 39.1.
GER	0300 ET	Revised German Feb CPI (EU harmonized), previous +1.0% m/m and -0.1% y/y.
EUR	0600 ET	Eurozone Jan industrial production expected +0.2% m/m and +0.1% y/y, Dec unch m/m and -0.2% y/y.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR03/12/2015

Company	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Dollar General Corp	DG US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	1.171
Rice Energy Inc	RICE US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	0.041
WW Grainger Inc	GWW US	8:00	February 2015 Sales and Revenue Call	2015
WW Grainger Inc	GWW US	8:00	February 2015 Sales and Revenue Release	2015
Rice Energy Inc	RICE US	9:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
National Fuel Gas Co	NFG US	9:30	Annual General Meeting	Y 2015
Walt Disney Co/The	DIS US	10:00	Annual General Meeting	Y 2015
Dollar General Corp	DG US	10:00	Q4 2015 Earnings Call	Q4 2015
Tahoe Resources Inc	THO CN	11:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
United Technologies Corp	UTX US	13:00	Investor and Analyst Meeting	Y 2015
Alere Inc	ALR US	13:00	Investor Meeting	Y 2015
F5 Networks Inc	FFIV US	14:00	Annual General Meeting	Y 2015
Cabot Corp	CBT US	16:00	Annual General Meeting	Y 2015
Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance Inc	ULTA US	17:00	Q4 2015 Earnings Call	Q4 2015
Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance Inc	ULTA US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	1.266

BARCHART MORNING CALL 2/2

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Monday, February 2nd, 2015View Older Reports

Everything you need to know about the markets in one free daily newsletter.

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

March E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 +0.25%) this morning are up +0.38% as energy producers and oil service providers gained in pre-market trading after crude oil jumped to a 2-week high, while European stocks are down -0.12%, led by a plunge in Spanish bank stocks, on concern Spain may try to follow Greece in attempting to renegotiate the country's debt. The leader of Spain's anti-austerity party, Podemos, pledged to restructure Spain's debt if his party can convert its opinion-poll lead into victory in elections later this year. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan -0.66%, Hong Kong -0.09%, China -2.34%, Taiwan +0.27%, Australia +0.66%, Singapore +0.95%, South Korea +0.29%, India -0.21%. China's Shanghai Stock Index fell to a 1-1/2 week low after a gauge of Chinese manufacturing signaled contraction for the first time in over two years. Commodity prices are mostly higher. Mar crude oil (CLH15 +0.58%) is up +3.11% at a 2-week high and Mar gasoline (RBH15 +2.84%) is up +5.00% at a 1-month high after a strike by oil workers in refineries that account for 10% of U.S. refining capacity enters its second day. Feb gold (GCG15 -0.24%) is down -0.24%. Mar copper (HGH15 +0.12%) is up +0.80%. Agriculture prices are higher. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.07%) is down -0.12%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.25%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.14%. Mar T-note prices (ZNH15 -0.02%) are down -0.5 of a tick.
The China Jan manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell -0.3 to 49.8, weaker than expectations of +0.1 to 50.2 and the first time manufacturing activity has contracted in 28 months. The Jan non-manufacturing PMI fell -0.4 to 53.7, the slowest pace of expansion in a year.
The German Jan Markit/BME manufacturing PMI was revised downward to 50.9 from the originally reported 51.0.
UK Jan Markit manufacturing PMI rose +0.5 from an upward revised 52.7 in Dec to 53.0, better than expectations of +0.2 to 52.7.
Japan Jan vehicle sales fell -18.9% y/y, the biggest decline in 3-1/3 years and the sixth consecutive month sales have fallen.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Today’s Jan ISM manufacturing index is expected to show a -0.8 decline to 54.7, which would be the third monthly decline in a row. Today’s Dec personal income report is expected to show a small increase of +0.2% and the Dec personal spending report is expected to show a decline of -0.2% m/m. Today’s Dec PCE deflator is expected to fall to +0.8% y/y from +1.2% in November. Meanwhile, today’s Dec core PCE deflator is expected to edge lower to +1.3% y/y from +1.4% in November.
There are 9 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today: Exxon (consensus $1.34), Pitney Bowes (0.51), Sysco (0.41), Avery Dennison (0.80), Anadarko Petroleum (0.86), Owens-Illinois (0.45), Hartford ((0.94), Torchmark (1.00), XL Group (0.88). Equity conferences this week include: ANS Conference on Nuclear Training and Education on Mon-Tue, In-Pharma Osaka 2015 on Tue, Media Insights & Engagement Conference on Tue-Thu, Cowen and Company Aerospace/Defense Conference & Transport Forum on Wed-Thu.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Tenneco (TEN -2.15%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $1.05, higher than consensus of 99 cents.
NuStar Energy (NS +3.11%) upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at UBS.
Western Gas Partners (WES +1.12%) was reinstated with an 'Overweight' at Barclays with a price target of $84.
Delta Air Lines (DAL -5.78%) and Spirit Airlines (SAVE -7.09%) were both upgraded to 'Strong Buy' from 'Outperform' at Raymond James.
Wyndham (WYN -2.07%) was downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Hold' at Deutsche Bank.
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF -2.18%) and Guess (GES -4.86%) were both downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Hold' at Evercore ISI.
1-800-Flowers.com (FLWS +3.14%) reported Q2 EPS of 68 cents, below consensus of 80 cents.
Diamond Foods (DMND -9.93%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at BMO Capital.
Pitney Bowes (PBI -0.29%) reported Q4 EPS of 51 cents, right on expectations
Sysco (SYY -1.83%) reported Q2 EPS of 41 cents, right on consensus.
Shire (SHPG -1.31%) announced that the U.S. FDA approved its Vyvanse Capsules, the first and only medication for the treatment of moderate to severe binge eating disorder in adults.
Nicholas Woodman reported a 44.9% passive stake in GoPro (GPRO -2.14%) .
JPMorgan Chase reported a 6.5% passive stake in Brandywine Realty (BDN -1.66%) .

MARKET COMMENTS

Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 +0.25%) this morning are up +7.50 poinrs (+0.38%). The S&P 500 index on Friday closed lower: S&P 500 -1.30%, Dow Jones -1.45%, Nasdaq -0.79%. Negative factors included (1) carry-over weakness from a slide in European stocks on deflation concerns after the Eurozone Jan CPI estimate fell by -0.6% y/y and matched the July 2009 decline as the biggest drop since the euro currency was introduced in 1999, and (2) U.S. economic concerns after U.S. Q4 GDP rose +2.6% q/q annualized, weaker than expectations of +3.0%.
Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH15 -0.02%) this morning are down -0.5 of a tick. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices on Friday posted a contract high and closed higher and the 10-year T-note yield fell to a 1-1/2 year low of 1.65%. Closes: TYH5 +22.00, FVH5 +14.75. Bullish factors included (1) concern about a slowdown in the U.S. economy after Q4 GDP expanded at a 2.6% pace, weaker expectations of +3.0%, and (2) carry-over support from a rally in German bund prices to a record high on deflation concerns after Eurozone Jan CPI fell -0.6% y/y and matched the biggest drop since the euro currency was introduced in 1999.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.07%) this morning is down -0.111 (-0.12%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0028 (+0.25%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.16 (+0.14%). The dollar index on Friday closed higher: Dollar index +0.022 (+0.02%), EUR/USD -0.00400 (-0.35%), USD/JPY -0.765 (-0.65%). Bullish factors included (1) hawkish comments from St. Louis Fed President Bullard who said it is “reasonable” to expect an interest rate increase in June or July, and (2) weakness in EUR/USD on deflation concerns after Eurozone Jan core CPI rose +0.6% y/y, the slowest pace of increase since the euro currency was introduced in 1999.
Mar WTI crude oil (CLH15 +0.58%) this morning is up $1.50 (+3.11%) at a 2-week high and Mar gasoline (RBH15 +2.84%) is up +0.0739 (+5.00%) at a 1-month high. Mar crude oil and Mar gasoline on Friday closed sharply higher with Mar crude at a 1-week high and Mar gasoline at a 1-month high: CLH5 +3.71 (+8.33%), RBH5 +0.0875 (+6.29%). Bullish factors included (1) concern that the recent plunge in crude prices will curb U.S, oil output after the Baker Hughes operating oil rig count sank to a 3-year low of 1,223, (2) the unexpected increase in the Jan Chicago PMI, which spurred short covering in crude, and (3) the better-than-expected +4.3% increase in Q4 U.S. personal consumption, which signals increased fuel demand.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR02/02/2015

US	0830 ET	Dec personal spending expected -0.2% m/m, Nov +0.6%. Dec personal income expected +0.2% m/m, Nov +0.4%.
	0830 ET	Dec PCE deflator expected -0.3% m/m and +0.8% y/y, Nov -0.2% m/m and +1.2% y/y. Dec PCE core deflator expected unch m/m and +1.3% y/y, Nov unch m/m and +1.4% y/y.
	0945 ET	Final Jan Markit manufacturing PMI, previous -0.2 to 53.7.
	1000 ET	Dec construction spending expected +0.7% m/m, Nov -0.3%.
	1000 ET	Jan ISM manufacturing index expected -0.8 to 54.7, Dec -3.2 to 55.5. Jan ISM new orders sub-index, Dec -8.7 to 57.3. Jan ISM employment sub-index, Dec +1.9 to 56.8. Jan ISM prices paid sub index expected +1.5 to 40.0, Dec -6.0 to 38.5.
	1100 ET	USDA weekly grain export inspections.
JPN	0000 ET	Japan Jan vehicle sales, Dec -8.8% y/y.
GER	0355 ET	Revised German Jan Markit/BME manufacturing PMI, previous -0.3 to 51.0.
EUR	0300 ET	ECB Executive Board member Benoit Coeure and the central bank chiefs of Austria, Turkey, Portugal, Slovenia, Croatia and Finland meet at a conference in Budapest organized by the Bank of Hungary.
	0400 ET	Revised Eurozone Jan Markit manufacturing PMI, previous +0.4 to 51.0.
UK	0430 ET	UK Jan Markit manufacturing PMI expected +0.2 to 52.7, Dec 52.5.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR02/02/2015

Company	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Pitney Bowes Inc	PBI US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	0.505
Sysco Corp	SYY US	Bef-mkt	Q2 2015 Earnings Release	Q2 2015	0.408
Pitney Bowes Inc	PBI US	8:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
Exxon Mobil Corp	XOM US	8:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	1.339
Avery Dennison Corp	AVY US	8:30	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	0.804
Exxon Mobil Corp	XOM US	9:30	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
Sysco Corp	SYY US	10:00	Q2 2015 Earnings Call	Q2 2015
Avery Dennison Corp	AVY US	11:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
XL Group PLC	XL US	17:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
Anadarko Petroleum Corp	APC US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	0.859
Owens-Illinois Inc	OI US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	0.452
Hartford Financial Services Group Inc/The	HIG US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	0.935
Torchmark Corp	TMK US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	1.002
XL Group PLC	XL US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	0.881