BARCHART MORNING CALL 7/15

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Wednesday, July 15th, 2015View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

September E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 +0.11%) are up %+0.08 and European stocks are up +0.19%, both at 2-1/2 week highs ahead of testimony later this morning from Fed Chair Yellen to the House Financial Services Committee. The Greek Parliament votes today on a package of reforms needed in order to obtain bailout funds. Stronger-than-expected Chinese economic data on Q2 GDP and Jun industrial production gave global stocks a boost, although China's Shanghai Composite closed lower as sentiment towards Chinese stocks remains weak. 701 stocks on China's mainland exchanges remain halted by trading curbs and with another 1,240 stocks falling by the 10% daily limit, sellers were locked out of about 67% of the Chinese market. Asian stocks closed mostly higher: Japan +0.38%, Hong Kong -0.26%, China -3.03%, Taiwan +0.14%, Australia +1.05%, Singapore +0.67%, South Korea +0.41%, India +0.95%.
Commodity prices are mixed. Aug crude oil (CLQ15 -0.68%) is down -0.68%. Aug gasoline (RBQ15 -0.75%) is down -0.42%. Metals prices are mixed. Aug gold (GCQ15 +0.04%) is up +0.02%. Sep copper (HGU15 +0.83%) is up +1.16%. Agricultural prices are weaker.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.03%) is up +0.01%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.08%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.12%.

Sep T-note prices (ZNU15 +0.05%) are up +1 tick.
The IMF released an analysis on Greece's debt situation which said that Greece's public debt has become highly unsustainable due to the easing of policies during the past year and the recent deterioration in the domestic macroeconomic and financial environment because of the closure of the banking system. The IMF estimates Greece's financing need through mid-2018 will be 85 billion euros and debt is expected to peak at close to 200% GDP in the next 2 years. The IMF said Greece's debt can only be made sustainable through debt relief measures that go far beyond what Europe has been willing to consider so far.
Speaking last night in Kansas City at an agricultural symposium, Kansas City Fed President George said that the economy is "back on track" in Q2 after a soft Q1 and that the Fed should begin to think about raising interest rates, though the U.S. will need accommodative policy for some time.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Fed Chair Janet Yellen's semi-annual testimony to the House Financial Services Committee, (2) weekly MBA mortgage applications (last week +4.6% with purchase sub-index +6.6% and refi sub-index +2.7%), (3) July Empire manufacturing index (expected +5.23 to 3.25 after June's -5.07 to -1.98), (4) June final-demand PPI (expected +0.2% m/m and -0.9% y/y after May's +0.5% m/m and -1.1% y/y) and June core PPI (expected +0.1% m/m and +0.7% y/y after May's +0.1% m/m and +0.6% y/y), (5) June industrial production (expected +0.2% after May's -0.2%), (6) the Fed's Beige Book report, (7) San Francisco Fed President John Williams' speech on the economic outlook to the Mesa Chamber of Commerce, (8) Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester's speech on the economic outlook at the Columbus Metropolitan Club, (9) San Francisco Fed President John Williams' speech on the economic outlook to the Mesa Chamber of Commerce.
There are 8 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today: Bank of America (consensus $0.36), Intel (0.50), PNC Finanical (1.76), US Bancorp (0.80), Blackrock (4.79), Kinder Morgan (0.19), Netflix (0.29), Delta Airlines (1.21).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today include: Pronai Therapeutics (DNAI), Jupai Holdings (JP), Innovation Economy (MYIE), Farmland Partners (FPI), Cymabay Therapeutics (CBAY).
Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: SEMICON West CEO Investor Summit on Tue-Wed, 2015 International Stewardship Symposium on Wed, Delivering Alpha Conference on Wed.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Bank of America (BAC +0.65%) reported Q2 EPS of 45 cents, better than consensus of 36 cents.
BlackRock (BLK -0.44%) reported Q2 EPS of $4.96, higher than consensus of $4.79.
PNC Financial Services Group (PNC +0.59%) reported Q2 EPS of $1.75, less than consensus of $1.76.
Delta Air Lines (DAL +0.67%) reported Q2 EPS of $1.27, above consensus of $1.21.
Eli Lilly (LLY -0.07%) was downgraded to 'Equal Weight' from 'Overweight' at Morgan Stanley.
Health Care REIT (HCN -0.48%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at SunTrust with a price target of $76.
Seagate (STX +2.87%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Craig-Hallum.
Avis Budget (CAR +0.76%) and Hertz (HTZ +0.71%) were both upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Deutsche Bank.
Vodafone (VOD +1.12%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Goldman Sachs.
PayPal (PYPLV +0.41%) will replace Noble Corp. (NE +0.34%) in the S&P 500 as of the close of trading on Friday, July 17.
Celgene (CELG +1.62%) climbed 5% and Receptos (RCPT +5.11%) jumped 10% in after-hours trading after Celgene said it will acquire Receptos for $232 per share in cash, or about $7.2 billion.
Gabelli reported a 5.43% stake in DealerTrack (TRAK -0.11%) .
Yum! Brands (YUM +0.97%) reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 69 cents, better than consensus of 63 cents, although it reported its Q2 China Division same-store-sales were down 10%.
CSX (CSX +0.53%) reported Q2 EPS of 56 cents, higher than consensus of 53 cents.

MARKET COMMENTS

September E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 +0.11%) this morning are up +1.75 points (+0.08%) at a 2-1/2 week high. Tuesday's closes: S&P 500 +0.44%, Dow Jones +0.42%, Nasdaq +0.65%. The S&P 500 index on Tuesday rallied to a 2-1/2 week high on (1) strength in chipmaker stocks after reports that China's Tsinghua Unigroup Ltd will offer $23 billion for Micron Technology, and (2) strength in energy producers after crude oil shook off early losses and moved higher. Stocks were undercut by the unexpected decline in U.S. Jun retail sales of -0.3% and -0.1% ex autos, weaker than expectations of +0.3% and +0.5% ex autos.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU15 +0.05%) this morning are up +1 tick. Tuesday's closes: TYU5 +11.00, FVU5 +6.50. Sep T-notes on Tuesday settled higher on speculation the Fed will delay raising interest rates after U.S. Jun retail sales unexpectedly declined.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.03%) this morning is up +0.009 (+0.01%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0009 (+0.08%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.15 (+0.12%). Tuesday's closes: Dollar Index -0.215 (-0.22%), EUR/USD +0.00074 (+0.07%), USD/JPY -0.043 (-0.03%). The dollar index on Tuesday closed lower on (1) the unexpected decline in U.S. Jun retail sales, which may prompt the Fed to delay an interest rate increase, and (2) strength in EUR/USD after the German Jul ZEW survey of investor confidence fell less than expected.
Aug WTI crude oil (CLQ15 -0.68%) this morning is down -36 cents (-0.68%). Aug gasoline (RBQ15 -0.75%) is down -0.0081 (-0.42%). Tuesday's closes: CLQ5 +0.84 (+1.61%), RBQ5 -0.0155 (-0.80%). Aug crude and gasoline on Tuesday settled mixed with Aug gasoline at a 2-1/2 month low. Crude oil closed higher on dollar weakness and expectations that Wednesday's weekly EIA crude inventories report will fall -2.75 million bbl. Bearish factors included (1) the Iranian nuclear agreement, which will likely result in a surge of Iranian oil production in 2016 after sanctions are potentially dropped in December, and (2) the fall in Aug gasoline to a 2-1/2 month low on concern about U.S. consumer spending after Jun retail sales unexpectedly declined.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR07/15/2015

US	0700 ET	Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous +4.6% with purchase sub-index +6.6% and refi sub-index +2.7%.
	0830 ET	Jul Empire manufacturing survey of general business conditions expected +5.23 to 3.25, Jun -5.07 to -1.98.
	0830 ET	Jun PPI final demand expected +0.2% m/m and -0.9% y/y, May +0.5% m/m and -1.1% y/y. Jun PPI ex food & energy expected +0.1% m/m and +0.7% y/y, May +0.1% m/m and +0.6% y/y.
	0915 ET	Jun industrial production expected +0.2%, May -0.2%. Jun capacity utilization expected unch at 78.1%, May was -0.2 to 78.1%.
	1000 ET	Fed Chair Janet Yellen delivers semi-annual testimony to the House Financial Services Committee.
	1030 ET	EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
	1200 ET	San Francisco Fed President John Williams speaks on the economic outlook to the Mesa Chamber of Commerce.
	1225 ET	Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester speaks on the economic outlook at the Columbus Metropolitan Club.
	1400 ET	Fed releases Beige Book.
	1500 ET	San Francisco Fed President John Williams delivers a speech on the economic outlook to the Mesa Chamber of Commerce.
UK	0430 ET	UK Jun jobless claims change expected -9,000, May -6,500. Jun claimant count rate expected unch at 2.3%.
	0430 ET	UK May avg weekly earnings expected +3.3% 3-mon avg y/y, Apr +2.7% 3-mon avg y/y. May weekly earnings ex-bonus expected +3.0% 3-mon avg y/y, Apr +2.7% 3-mon avg y/y.
	0430 ET	UK May ILO unemployment rate expected unch at +5.5 in the three months through May, previous +5.5% in the three months through Apr.
JPN	n/a	BOJ announces interest rate decision and asset purchase target following 2-day policy meeting.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR07/15/2015

Company	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
PNC Financial Services Group Inc/The	PNC US	Bef-mkt	Q2 2015 Earnings Release	Q2 2015	1.756
US Bancorp	USB US	Bef-mkt	Q2 2015 Earnings Release	Q2 2015	0.8
BlackRock Inc	BLK US	Bef-mkt	Q2 2015 Earnings Release	Q2 2015	4.792
Bank of America Corp	BAC US	7:00	Q2 2015 Earnings Release	Q2 2015	0.361
CSX Corp	CSX US	8:30	Q2 2015 Earnings Call	Q2 2015
Bank of America Corp	BAC US	8:30	Q2 2015 Earnings Call	Q2 2015
BlackRock Inc	BLK US	8:30	Q2 2015 Earnings Call	Q2 2015
Yum! Brands Inc	YUM US	9:15	Q2 2015 Earnings Call	Q2 2015
US Bancorp	USB US	9:30	Q2 2015 Earnings Call	Q2 2015
Delta Air Lines Inc	DAL US	10:00	Q2 2015 Earnings Call	Q2 2015
PNC Financial Services Group Inc/The	PNC US	10:30	Q2 2015 Earnings Call	Q2 2015
Paychex Inc	PAYX US	11:30	Investor Day	Y 2015
Kinder Morgan Inc/DE	KMI US	16:00	Q2 2015 Earnings Release	Q2 2015	0.189
Netflix Inc	NFLX US	16:05	Q2 2015 Earnings Release	Q2 2015	0.293
Netflix Inc	NFLX US	16:30	Q2 2015 Earnings Call	Q2 2015
Kinder Morgan Inc/DE	KMI US	16:30	Q2 2015 Earnings Call	Q2 2015
Intel Corp	INTC US	17:00	Q2 2015 Earnings Call	Q2 2015
Intel Corp	INTC US	Aft-mkt	Q2 2015 Earnings Release	Q2 2015	0.499
Iron Mountain Inc	IRM US		Roadshow - Baltimore - Day 2	Y 2015
Amazon.com Inc	AMZN US		Amazon's Prime Day" Sales Event"
Delta Air Lines Inc	DAL US		Q2 2015 Earnings Release	Q2 2015	1.213

BARCHART MORNING CALL 12/5

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Friday, December 5th, 2014View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 +0.10%) this morning are up +0.08% ahead of U.S. Nov payrolls data and European stocks are up +1.63% after German Oct factory orders exceeded expectations. Stocks also rose and European government bonds rallied, with Italy's 10-year bond yield falling to a record low 1.948%, on speculation the ECB was preparing a package of asset purchases. According to 2 central bank officials familiar with the deliberations, the ECB Governing Council expects to consider a proposal for broad-based asset purchases including sovereign debt at the next meeting on Jan 22. European stocks gained despite the action by the Bundesbank to cut its German GDP and inflation forecasts for this year and next. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +0.19%, Hong Kong +0.71%, China +0.66%, Taiwan -0.20%, Australia -0.62%, Singapore +0.59%, South Korea +0.07%, India -0.37%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index advanced to a 7-1/3 year high as exporters rallied as the yen weakened past 120 yen per dollar for the first time in 7-1/3 years. China's Shanghai Stock Index climbed to a new 3-1/2 year high and is up +9.5% this week amid speculation the PBOC will cut reserve-requirement ratios for banks after lowering interest rate for the first time in 2 years in an attempt to revive economic growth. Commodity prices are mostly lower. Jan crude oil (CLF15 -0.72%) is down -0.99%. Jan gasoline (RBF15 -0.91%) is down -1.08%. Feb gold (GCG15 -0.60%) is down -0.46%. Mar copper (HGH15 +0.55%) is up +0.65%. Agriculture prices are weaker. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.19%) is up +0.20%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.23%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.73% at a fresh 7-1/3 year high. Mar T-note prices (ZNH15 -0.06%) are down -2.5 ticks.
In its biannual report, the Bundesbank cut its 2014 German GDP forecast to +1.4% from a Jun estimate of +1.9% and lowered its 2015 GDP forecast to +1.0% from +2.0%. The Bundesbank also lowered its German 2014 inflation forecast to +0.9% from a Jun projection of +1.1% and cut its 2015 inflation forecast to +1.1% from +1.5%.
German Oct factory orders rose +2.5% m/m and +2.4% y/y, much more than expectations of +0.5% m/m and unch y/y and the strongest in 3 months.
Eurozone Q3 GDP was left unrevised at +0.2% q/q and +0.8% y/y.
The Japan Oct leading index CI fell -1.6 to 104.0, a slightly bigger decline than expectations of -1.5 to 104.1 and the lowest in 1-3/4 years. The Oct coincident index rose +0.4 to 110.2, a larger increase than expectations of +0.2 to 110.0 and the highest in 5 months.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Today’s Nov payroll report is expected to show an increase of +230,000, which would be a bit better than October’s report of +214,000. Today’s Nov unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged from October’s 6-1/3 year low of 5.8%. Today’s Oct U.S. trade deficit is expected to narrow to -$41.2 billion from -$43.0 billion in September. Today’s Oct factory orders report is expected to show a decline of -0.2%, adding to the -0.6% decline seen in September. Today’s Oct consumer credit report is expected to show another strong increase of +$16.5 billion following the September increase of +$15.924 billion. There is only 1 of the Russell 1000 companies that reports earnings today: Big Lots (consensus $-0.05). There are no equity conferences today.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Tyson Foods (TSN -1.93%) was upgraded to 'Conviction Buy' from 'Buy' at Goldman Sachs.
AMC Entertainment (AMC +1.02%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at B. Riley.
IntercontinentalExchange (ICE +0.32%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Citigroup.
Thor Industries (THO -5.68%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at SunTrust.
Big Lots (BIG -1.22%) reported a Q3 EPS loss of -6 cents, a bigger loss than consensus of -5 cents.
Vodafone (VOD -1.04%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Goldman Sachs.
Cormorant Global Healthcare reported a 8.94% passive stake in Quotient (QTNT -0.17%) .
Fiat Chrysler (FCAU -2.51%) slid over 3% in after-hours trading after it filed to sell $2.5 billion of mandatory convertible securities due 2016.
Gabelli reported a 12.37% stake in Cincinnati Bell (CBB -0.88%) .
Synaptics (SYNA -1.15%) soared over 7% in after-hours trading after it raised guidance on Q2 revenue view to $440 million-$460 million from $415 million-$450 million, above consensus of $433.12 million.
Northrop Grumman (NOC -0.80%) announced a new $3 billion share repurchase authorization, and then the company was upgraded to 'Conviction Buy' from 'Buy' at Goldman Sachs.
Ulta Salon (ULTA +0.85%) climbed over 5% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 EPS of 91 cents, higher than consensus of 84 cents.
Cooper Companies (COO -0.45%) dropped over 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 EPS of $1.95, less than consensus of $2.03, and then lowered guidance on fiscal 2015 EPS view to $7.30-$7.70 from $8.20-$8.60, well below consensus of $8.24.
American Eagle (AEO -3.83%) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 22 cents, right on consensus, although Q3 revenue of $854 million was above consensus of $845.95 million.
The Gap (GPS -0.10%) jumped over 2% in after-hours trading after it reported November same-store-sales of $1.72 billion, up 6% y/y.

MARKET COMMENTS

Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 +0.10%) this morning are up +1.75 points (+0.08%). The S&P 500 index on Thursday closed lower: S&P 500 -0.12%, Dow Jones -0.07%, Nasdaq -0.02%. Bearish factors included (1) disappointment the ECB didn’t expand stimulus after ECB President Draghi said the ECB will reassess the effects of existing monetary stimulus “early next year,” and (2) the ECB’s cut in its Eurozone 2014-2016 GDP forecasts. Stocks rebounded from their worst levels after two Eurozone central-bank officials familiar with the deliberations said the ECB was planning for a broad-based asset purchase program next month that includes purchases of sovereign debt.
Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH15 -0.06%) this morning are down -2.5 ticks. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices on Thursday rebounded from a 1-week low and closed higher: TYH5 +7.00, FVH5 +3.25. Supportive factors included (1) European economic concerns after the ECB lowered its Eurozone GDP and inflation forecasts for 2014-2016, and (2) increased safe-haven demand for T-notes as stocks retreated.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.19%) this morning is up +0.176 (+0.20%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0028 (-0.23%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.87 (+0.73%) at a 7-1/3 year high. The dollar index on Thursday retreated from a 5-1/2 year high and closed lower. Closes: Dollar index -0.252 (-0.28%), EUR/USD +0.00679 (+0.55%), USD/JPY unch. The main bearish factor was short-covering in EUR/USD which rebounded from a 2-1/4 year low after ECB President Draghi said policy makers will wait until next quarter to assess whether additional stimulus measures are required. USD/JPY soared to a 7-1/3 year high after the Nikkei and Yomiuri newspapers reported that Prime Minister Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party will boost its majority at the Dec 14 election, which will give Abe a mandate to continue his inflationary and yen-negative fiscal policies.
Jan WTI crude oil (CLF15 -0.72%) this morning is down -66 cents (-0.99%) and Jan gasoline (RBF15 -0.91%) is down -0.0193 (-1.08%). Jan crude and Jan gasoline on Thursday closed lower. Closes: CLF5 -0.57 (-0.85%), RBF5 -0.0112 (-0.68%). Bearish factors included (1) comments from an unnamed person from the Saudi Oil Ministry who said Saudi Arabia has no target for crude prices and will let the market decide at what level oil should trade for now, and (2) the ECB’s cut in its Eurozone 2014 and 2015 GDP forecasts, which signals reduced energy consumption and demand.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR12/05/2014

US	0830 ET	Nov non-farm payrolls expected +230,000, Oct +214,000. Nov private payrolls expected +225,000, Oct +209,000. Nov manufacturing payrolls expected +15,000, Oct +15,000. Nov unemployment rate expected unch at 5.8%.
	0830 ET	Nov avg hourly earnings expected +0.2% m/m and +2.1% y/y, Oct +0.1% m/m and +2.0% y/y. Nov avg weekly hours all-employees expected unch at 34.6 hours.
	0830 ET	Oct trade balance expected -$41.2 billion, Sep -$43.0 billion.
	0845 ET	Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester gives keynote address at the Office of Financial Research 2014 Financial Stability Conference in Washington D.C.
	1000 ET	Oct factory orders expected unch, Sep -0.6%.
	1445 ET	Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer speaks via video to an IMF conference in Washington D.C. on Fiscal Affairs, Past and Future.
	1500 ET	Oct consumer credit expected +$16.450 billion, Sep +$15.924 billion.
JPN	0000 ET	Japan Oct leading index CI expected -1.5 to 104.1, Sep 105.6. Oct coincident index expected +0.2 to 110.0, Sep 109.8.
GER	0200 ET	German Oct factory orders expected +0.5% m/m and unch y/y, Sep +0.8% m/m and -1.0% y/y.
UK	0430 ET	BOE quarterly inflation expectations, Aug +2.8%.
EUR	0500 ET	Revised Eurozone Q3 GDP, previous +0.2% q/q and +0.8% y/y.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR12/05/2014

Company Name	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Sonoco Products Co	SON US	7:50	Investor Meeting	Y 2014
Big Lots Inc	BIG US	8:00	Q3 2015 Earnings Call	Q3 2015
Illinois Tool Works Inc	ITW US	9:00	Investor and Analyst Day	Y 2014
Sigma-Aldrich Corp	SIAL US	10:00	Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting - M&A Vote	Y 2014
JDS Uniphase Corp	JDSU US	12:00	Annual General Meeting	Y 2014
Big Lots Inc	BIG US		Q3 2015 Earnings Release	Q3 2015	-0.053
Twenty-First Century Fox Inc	FOXA US		U.S. Box Office Release of Movie The Pyramid""
Public Service Enterprise Group Inc	PEG US		Investor Meeting	Y 2014
Actavis plc	ACT US		FDA Adcomm, ceftazidime/avibactam, urinary tract and intra-abdominal infections
Incyte Corp	INCY US		PDUFA, Jakafi, polycythemia vera (PV)
Premier Inc	PINC US		Annual General Meeting

BARCHART MORNING CALL 4/4

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Friday, April 4th, 2014View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

June E-mini (ESM14 +0.20%) S&Ps this morning are up +0.16% and European stocks are up +0.15% on optimism that today's U.S. payrolls data for Mar may signal the economy is strengthening. Another positive for European stocks is signs of strength in German factory output after German Feb factory orders rose more than expected. Yesterday's comments from ECB President Draghi that the ECB may use quantitative easing to ward off deflation has boosted European government bonds as yields on Spanish, Italian and Irish securities all declined to record lows. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan -0.05%, Hong Kong -0.24%, China +0.95%, Taiwan closed for holiday, Australia +0.24%, Singapore -0.23%, South Korea +0.05%, India -0.66%. Commodity prices are mixed. May crude oil (CLK14 +0.88%) is up +0.76%. May gasoline (RBK14 +0.31%) is up +0.15%. Jun gold (GCM14 +0.61%) is up +0.53%. May copper (HGK14 +0.66%) is up +0.69%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.02%) is up +0.03% at a 5-week high on expectations that today's U.S. Mar payrolls data will show employers added the most jobs in 4 months, which will bolster the case for further Fed tapering of QE3. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.12% at a 5-week low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.02%. June T-note prices (ZNM14 -0.04%) are down -1.5 ticks.
German Feb factory orders rose +0.6% m/m, three times better than expectations of +0.2% m/m, while on an annual basis Feb factory orders rose +6.1% y/y, less than expectations of +6.8% y/y. Jan Factory orders were revised down to +0.1% m/m and +7.0% y/y, well below the previously reported +1.2% m/m and +8.4% y/y.
The German Mar Markit retail PMI fell -0.9 to 50.2, the slowest rate of expansion in 11 months.
The Eurozone Mar Markit retail PMI climbed +0.7 to 49.2
UK Mar Halifax house prices unexpectedly fell -1.1% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.6% m/m and the biggest monthly decline in 1-3/4 years. On an annual basis, prices rose +8.7% y/y, less than expectations of +9.4% y/y.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Unemployment report – Today’s March payroll report is expected to show an increase of +200,000, improving substantially from the weak average monthly increase of +129,000 seen in the previous three months (Dec +84,000, Jan +129,000, Feb +175,000). Meanwhile, today’s March unemployment rate is expected to show a -0.1 point decline to 6.6%, thus matching the 5-1/2 year low posted in January. There is one of the Russell 1000 companies that reports earnings today: CarMax (consensus $0.54). There are no equity conferences today.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

JPMorgan Chase (JPM +0.30%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Neutral' at Macquarie.
CarMax (KMX -0.67%) reported Q4 EPS of 44 cents, weaker than consensus of 54 cents.
Genesco (GCO -0.62%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Sterne Agee.
General Mills (GIS +1.18%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Argus.
Hasbro (HAS -0.92%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Needham.
GameStop (GME +2.35%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at BofA/Merrill.
Anadarko (APC +14.51%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Underweight' at JPMorgan Chase.
Fiat (FIATY +0.17%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at UBS.
Vodafone (VOD -1.25%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Nomura.
David E. Lazovsky reported a 5.7% passive stake in Intermolecular (IMI +0.36%) .
SAC Capital lowered its passive stake in E-House (EJ -2.98%) to 2.2% from 5.6%.
Micron (MU -1.44%) reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 85 cents, better than consensus of 76 cents.
SYNNEX (SNX -1.53%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.25, well ahead of consensus of 94 cents.
Global Payments (GPN -0.31%) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 96 cents, higher than consensus of 95 cents, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2014 EPS view to $4.06-$4.11 from $4.03-$4.10; consensus $4.10.

MARKET COMMENTS

June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 +0.20%) this morning are up +3.00 points (+0.16%). The S&P 500 on Thursday posted a fresh record high but fell back and closed lower. Negative factors included (1) U.S. weekly jobless claims that rose +16,000 to 326,000, more than expectations of +8,000 to 319,000 and the most in 5-weeks, and (2) the U.S. Feb trade balance that widened to a -$42.3 billion deficit, more than expectations of -$38.5 billion and the biggest trade deficit in 5 months, which is negative for U.S. Q1 GDP. Closes: S&P 500 -0.11, Dow Jones unch, Nasdaq -0.77%.
Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM14 -0.04%) this morning are down -1.5 ticks. Jun 10-year T-note futures prices on Thursday closed slightly higher. Supportive factors for T-notes included (1) the larger-than-expected increase in U.S. weekly initial unemployment claims to the most in 5 weeks, and (2) the widening of U.S. Feb trade deficit to a 5-month high, which has negative implications for U.S. Q1 GDP. Closes: TYM4 +1.50, FVM4 +0.50.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.02%) this morning is up +0.024 (+0.03%) at a 5-week high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0016 (-0.12%) at a 5-week low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.02 (-0.02%). The dollar index on Thursday rallied to a 5-week high and closed higher. Supportive factors for the dollar included (1) weakness in EUR/USD which fell to a 5-week low on signs the ECB is considering additional stimulus measures after ECB President Draghi said that “we do not exclude further monetary policy easing” to prevent “too prolonged a period of low inflation.” Also, the dollar rose on expectations that strength in Friday’s U.S. Mar payrolls report will keep the Fed’s tapering regime intact. Closes: Dollar index +0.260 (+0.32%), EUR/USD -0.00474 (-0.34%), USD/JPY +0.045 (+0.04%).
May WTI crude oil (CLK14 +0.88%) this morning is up +76 cents (+0.76%) and May gasoline (RBK14 +0.31%) is up +0.0043 (+0.15%). May crude and gasoline prices on Thursday closed higher after comments from ECB President Draghi suggested the ECB may provide additional stimulus to fight deflation risks, which may boost economic growth and energy demand. Gains were limited after the dollar index rallied to a 5-week high. Gasoline also found support on supply concerns after Wednesday’s EIA inventory data showed gasoline stockpiles dropped to a 4-month low. Closes: CLK4 +0.67 (+0.67%). RBK4 +0.0450 (+1.57%).

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR04/04/2014

US	0030 ET	Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher speaks on monetary policy at the Asia Society Hong Kong Center.
	0830 ET	Mar non-farm payrolls expected +200,000, Feb +175,000. Mar private payrolls expected +200,000, Feb +162,000. Mar manufacturing payrolls expected +6,000, Feb +6,000. Mar unemployment rate expected -0.1 to 6.6%, Feb +0.1 to 6.7%.
	0830 ET	Mar avg hourly earnings expected +0.2% m/m and +2.3% y/y, Feb +0.4% m/m and +2.2% y/y. Mar avg weekly hours expected +0.2 to 34.4 hours, Feb 34.2.
GER	0400 ET	German Feb factory orders expected +0.2% m/m and +6.8% y/y, Jan +1.0% m/m and +8.4% y/y.
	0410 ET	German Mar Markit retail PMI, Feb 52.1.
EUR	0410 ET	Eurozone Mar Markit retail PMI, Feb 48.5.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR04/04/2014

Company Name	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
CarMax Inc	KMX US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	0.537
CarMax Inc	KMX US	9:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
Walt Disney Co/The	DIS US		U.S. Box Office Release of Movie Captain America: The Winter Soldier""

Barchart Morning call 9/11

Barchart Morning Call

BC - Wed Sep 11, 6:43AM CDT

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

September E-mini S&Ps (ESU13 -0.06%) this morning are little changed, down -0.01%, while European stocks are up +0.40%. Asian stocks closed mostly higher: Japan +0.01%, Hong Kong -0.17%, China +0.32%, Taiwan unch, Australia +0.64%, Singapore -0.50%, South Korea +0.45%, India unch. Most global stocks are higher on reduced concern of a U.S. military strike against Syria after President Obama Tuesday night said he will pursue a Russian proposal to have Syria surrender its stockpiles of chemical weapons to international authorities. Commodity prices are mixed. Oct crude oil (CLV13 -0.09%) is down -0.07% and Oct gasoline (RBV13 +0.16%) is up +0.22%. Dec gold (GCZ13 -0.28%) is down -0.28% and Dec copper (HGZ13 +0.46%) is up +0.41%. Agricultural and livestock prices are higher. The dollar index (DXY00 unch) is unch. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.09% and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.09%. The British pound surged to a 7-month high against the dollar after the UK unemployment rate unexpectedly fell. December T-note prices (ZNZ13 +0.13%) are up +5.5 ticks.
UK Aug jobless claims fell -32,600, a bigger decline than expectations of -21,000, while Jun was revised to show a -36,300 decline, more than the originally reported -29,200. The Aug claimant count rate unexpectedly fell -0.1 to 4.2%, better than expectations of unch at 4.3% and the lowest in 4-1/2 years.
The UK July ILO unemployment rate averaged over 3-months unexpectedly fell -0.1 to 7.7%, better than expectations of unch at 7.8% and matched a 4-year low.
ECB Governing Council member Coene raised concern that Greece will need additional aid when he said that "It's clear that we haven't reached the end of the Greece problem for the moment, and that additional efforts will have to be made, one time for certain, possibly two times."
Japan Q3 BSI business condition large all industry jumped to 12.0 from 5.9 in Q2, the highest since data began in 2004. The Q3 BSI business condition large manufacturing climbed to 15.2 from 5.0 in Q2, the highest since Q3 2009.
The Japan Aug domestic CGPI rose +0.3% m/m and +2.4% y/y, close to expectations of +0.4% m/m and +2.4% y/y, while July was revised upward to +0.6% m/m and +2.3% y/y from the originally reported +0.5% m/m and +2.2% y/y.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

The global stock markets are benefiting as the chances recede for a U.S. military attack on Syria with Congressional opposition combined with the new Russian plan for Syria to give up control of its chemical weapons. The focus is shifting to the continuing resolution that is necessary by Oct 1 as House Republican leaders have a plan for getting a continuing resolution through the House, except that Tea Party members of the House are not happy about the plan. The Treasury today will sell $21 billion in 10-year T-notes as this week's $66 billion coupon package continues. There are no major earnings reports today.
Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include the following: Barclays Global Financial Services Conference on Mon-Wed, Morgan Stanley Healthcare Conference on Mon-Wed, Vertical Research Partners Industrial Conference on Mon-Wed, Clinical Trial Supply USA on Tue-Wed, Rodman & Renshaw Health Care Conference on Tue-Wed, DA Davidson & Co Engineering & Construction Conference on Tue-Wed, Robert W Baird and Co Health Care Conference on Tue-Wed, KeyBanc Capital Markets Basic Materials & Packaging Conference on Tue-Wed, Goldman Sachs Global Retailing Conference on Tue-Wed, Deutsche Bank Access Technology Conference on Tue-Wed, RBC Capital Markets Global Industrials Conference on Tue-Wed, Stifel Nicolaus & Co Health Care Conference on Tue-Thu, Biofuels International 2013 Conference on Wed, Credit Suisse Asian Technology Conference on Wed, UBS Global Paper & Forest Products Conference on Thu, UBS Best of Americas Conference on Thu-Fri, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Real Estate Conference on Wed-Fri, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Healthcare Conference on Wed-Thu, Goldman Sachs Global Commodities Conference on Wed-Thu, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Media, Communications & Entertainment Conference on Wed-Thu, Barclays Capital CEO Energy - Power Conference on Wed-Thu, Barclays CEO Energy Power Conference on Wed-Thu, CL King & Associates Inc Best Ideas Conference on Wed-Thu, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Canada Mining Conference on Thu, and Bloomberg Canadian Fixed Income Conference on Thu.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Morgan Stanley (MS +2.19%) was upgraded to "Buy" from "Neutral" at UBS.
Procter & Gamble (PG -0.27%) was downgraded to "Neutral" from "Buy" at SunTrust.
Nokia (NOK +2.54%) was upgraded to "Buy" from "Neutral" at BofA/Merrill.
Apple (AAPL -2.28%) was downgraded to "Neutral" from "Buy" at BofA/Merrill and was downgraded to "Neutral" from "Outperform" at Credit Suisse.
Brocade (BRCD -0.13%) said it will cut 300 jobs, consolidate facilities, and take $30 million-$40 million in charges in Q4.
Raytheon (RTN +1.37%) was awarded a $136.25 million government contract for MK15 Phalanx Close-In Weapon System upgrades and conversions, system overhauls and associated hardware.
Bloomberg reported that Verizon (VZ +1.22%) plans to sell between $45 billion-$49 billion of debt to finance its acquisition of Vodafone's (VOD -0.99%) stake in Verizon Wireless.
S&P cuts Argentina's debt rating to CCC+ from B- with a Negative Outlook.
Southeastern Asset reported a 11.9% passive stake in News Corp (NWSA +1.41%) .
International Paper (IP +0.24%) announced a $1.5 billion share repurchase plan and raised its quarterly dividend to 35 cents from 30 cents.
Waddell & Reed reported a 10.1% passive stake in Harman (HAR +0.98%) .
Cohen & Steers reported a 10.47% passive stake in Healthcare Trust (HTA -0.09%) .
Restoration Hardware (RH -0.96%) reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 49 cents, stronger than consensus of 43 cents, and raised guidance on fiscal 2013 EPS view to $1.65-$1.70, better than consensus of $1.48.
Select Equity Group reported a 11.7% passive stake in PBF Energy (PBF +0.09%) .
Oxford Industries (OXM +1.35%) reported Q2 adjusted EPS of $1.01, better than consensus of 98 cents, but then lowered guidance on fiscal 2013 EPS view to $2.90-$3.05 from $3.00-$3.15, lower than consensus of $3.12.

MARKET COMMENTS

Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU13 -0.06%) this morning are down -0.25 of a point (-0.01%). The S&P 500 index on Tuesday rose to a 3-1/2 week high and closed higher. Bullish factors included (1) strong Chinese economic data that boosted global economic prospects after China Aug industrial production climbed +10.4% y/y, the most in 17 months, and after China Aug retail sales rose +13.4% y/y, the fastest pace in 8 months, and (2) hopes that a U.S. attack on Syria will be averted with Russia’s proposal for Syria to relinquish control of its chemical weapons and with no assurance of Congressional approval of a U.S. attack in any case. Closes: S&P 500 +0.73%, Dow Jones +0.85%, Nasdaq 100 +0.48%.
Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ13 +0.13%) this morning are up +5.5 ticks. Dec 10-year T-note prices on Tuesday closed lower on reduced safe-haven demand as the S&P 500 rallied to a 3-1/2 week high on strong Chinese economic data and speculation that a Russian proposal for Syria to put its chemical weapons under international control will avert a U.S. military strike. Closes: TYZ3 -13.50, FVZ3 -9.25.
The dollar index (DXY00 unch) this morning is unch. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0012 (-0.09%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.09 (-0.09%). The dollar index on Tuesday closed slightly higher. The dollar rose on expectations that the Fed will taper QE3 at next week’s FOMC meeting along with weakness in the yen after USD/JPY climbed to a 1-1/2 month high after the minutes of the BOJ’s Aug 7-8 policy meeting showed policy board members said BOJ bond purchases were putting downward pressure on yields and that consumer-price expectations had turned positive. Closes: Dollar index +0.016 (+0.02%), EUR/USD +0.00127 (+0.10%), USD/JPY +0.801 (+0.80%).
Oct WTI crude oil (CLV13 -0.09%) this morning is down -8 cents (-0.07%) and Oct gasoline (RBV13 +0.16%) is up +0.0059 (+0.22%). Oct crude oil and gasoline prices on Tuesday closed lower with Oct gasoline at a 1-month low. The main bearish factor for crude prices was the report that Syria will agree to a Russian proposal that Syria puts its chemical weapons stockpiles under international control, which reduces concern of a U.S. military strike on Syria that could cause wider conflict in the Middle East and possibly disrupt oil shipments. Closes: CLV3 -2.13 (-1.94%), RBV3 -0.0655 (-2.34%).

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR09/11/2013

US	0700 ET	Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous +1.3% with purchase sub-index -0.4% and refi sub-index +2.4%.
	1000 ET	July wholesale inventories expected +0.3%, Jun -0.2%. July wholesales trade sales expected +0.5%, Jun +0.4%.
	1030 ET	EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
	1300 ET	Treasury auctions $21 billion 10-year T-notes.
GER	0200 ET	Revised German Aug CPI (EU harmonized), previous unch m/m and +1.6% y/y.
UK	0430 ET	UK Aug jobless claims change expected -21,000, July -29,200. Aug claimant count rate expected unch at 4.3%, July 4.3%.
	0430 ET	UK July avg weekly earnings expected +1.3% 3-mo/year-over-year, Jun +2.1% 3-mo/year-over-year. July weekly earnings ex-bonus expected +1.0% 3-mo/year-over-year, Jun +1.1% 3-mo/year-over-year.
	0430 ET	UK July ILO unemployment rate expected 7.8% 3-mo, June 7.8% 3-mo.
JPN	1950 ET	Japan July machine orders expected +2.4% m/m and +7.7% y/y, Jun -2.7% m/m and +4.9% y/y.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR09/11/2013

Company Name	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
SAIC Inc	SAI US	8:30	Investor Day	Y 2013
Apple Inc	AAPL US	10:00	US Court of Appeals Hears Arguments on Apple vs Motorola Mobility
Google Inc	GOOG US	10:00	US Court of Appeals Hears Arguments on Apple vs Motorola Mobility
Mastercard Inc	MA US	10:00	Investment Community Meeting	Y 2013
Legg Mason Inc	LM US	12:30	Investors and Analysts Meeting	Y 2013
United Parcel Service Inc	UPS US		Roadshow - Baltimore	Y 2013

Barchart Morning Call 4/3

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Wednesday, April 3rd, 2013View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

June E-mini S&Ps (ESM13 +0.16%) are trading slightly higher by +0.11% as the market looks ahead to a positive ADP report today with a consensus of +200,000. The Euro Stoxx 50 index is down -0.49% today on some long liquidation pressure after recent gains. European stocks received some underlying support today as the IMF reached an agreement with Cyprus for a 1 billion euro contribution to its bailout. Asian stocks today closed mostly lower with the Hang Seng down -0.14% and China's CSI 300 index down -0.11%, but Japan's Nikkei index rallied sharply by +2.99% today. Chinese stocks were supported by solid increases in its non-manufacturing PMI reports but were undercut by the new cases of bird flu. Commodity prices are slightly lower by -0.06%. May crude oil (CLK13 -0.48%) is down -0.50%, May gasoline (RBK13 -1.00%) is down -1.23%, June gold (GCM13 -0.25%) is down -0.32%, May copper (HGK13 -0.43%) is down -0.61%, and agriculture prices are mostly higher. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.11%) and EUR/USD
(^EURUSD) this morning are virtually unchanged. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is slightly higher by +0.07%. June 10-year T-note (ZNM13 -0.05%) prices are up +0.5 tick.
North Korea today prevented South Korean workers from entering the Gaeseong joint industrial zone, ratcheting up tensions another notch. North Korea earns about $100 million in profits from the business operations in the joint industrial park and South Korea makes about $400 million. So far North Korea has only halted South Koreans from traveling to the site but has not started to shut down the site entirely. There are still South Koreans who are effectively trapped in the zone and are unable to leave. There have still been no reports of unusual military movements in North Korea.
The Bank of Japan on Thursday will announce the outcome of its 2-day meeting. The market consensus is that new BOJ chief Kuroda will engineer a broad expansion of the BOJ's asset purchase program to meet its new goal of hitting a 2% inflation rate within two years.
The IMF today said that it reached a staff-level agreement with Cyprus to contribute 1 billion euros toward the 10 billion euro bailout. Italian 10-year bond yields today fell by another 3 bp to 4.59%, adding to yesterday's sharp decline of 14 bp. Spanish 10-year bond yields today fell by 4 bp to 4.91%.
Germany today successfully sold 3.29 billion of 5-year bonds at an average yield of 0.33%, down from 0.45% its last sale of 5-year bonds on March 6.
The March Eurozone CPI eased to +1.7% y/y from +1.8% in Feb but did not fall as far as the consensus of +1.6% y/y.
China's March non-manufacturing PMI from the National Bureau of Statistics rose by +1.1 point to 55.6 from 54.5 in Feb. Meanwhile, the March HSBC services PMI rose by +2.2 points to 54.3 from 52.1 in Feb. The increase in the non-manufacturing PMIs indicated that the non-manufacturing sectors of the Chinese economy picked up a little steam in March.
The UK March construction PMI rose by +1.4 points to 47.2 from 46.8 in Feb but was weaker than market expectations for a +1.2 point increase to 48.0.
Chinese investors became a little more concerned after a new H7N9 strain of bird flu killed two people in Shanghai. Five other people are infected with the virus and are in critical condition. WHO is investigating.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Today’s March ADP employment report is expected to show a solid increase of +200,000, which would be very close to the +198,000 increase seen in February. Today’s March ISM non-manufacturing index is expected to show a small decline of -0.2 to 55.8. There are only two major earnings reports today. ConAgra this morning reported Q3 earnings of 55 cents, slightly below the consensus of 56 cents. Monsanto reported Q2 earnings of $2.73, well above the consensus of $2.57.
Conferences through the rest of this week include Boston Biotech Business Development Conference on Tue-Wed, J.P. Morgan Private Builder/Private Equity Conference on Thursday, China Business Conference 2013 in NY on Friday, and Women in the World Summit 2013 on Friday.

June E-mini S&Ps (ESM13 +0.16%) are slightly higher by +1.75 points (+0.11%) on expectations for a strong ADP report this morning of +200,000 and on some optimism about a further decline in Italian and Spanish bond yields and solid increases in today's Chinese non-manufactuturing indexes. The S&P 500 index on Tuesday closed moderately higher on the stronger-than-expected U.S. Feb factory orders report and the sharp -14 bp drop in the Italian 10-year bond yield. Closes: S&P 500 +0.52%, Dow Jones +0.61%, Nasdaq 100 +0.84%.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

• Monsanto (MON -1.69%) reported Q2 adjusted EPS of $2.73, well above the consensus of $2.58.
• ConAgra (CAG -0.22%) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 55 cents, slightly below the consensus of 56 cents.
• Japanese auto makers (TM -1.25%, HMC -1.00%, NSANY -0.75%) continued to see a Chinese sales slump in Q1, allowing rivals to pick up market share, according to a Reuters report.
• Caterpillar (CAT -0.89%) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman Sachs on a reduced outlook for iron ore prices and a cut in equipment capital spending.
• Six Flags (SIX +0.63%) was initiated with a Conviction Buy with a target of $83.50 by Goldman Sachs
• BP (BP +0.31%) is putting its U.S. wind power unit up for sale, according to FT
• Oxford Industries (OXM -0.54%) fell 3% in after-hours trading after reporting Q4 EPS of 65 cents, below the consensus of 70 cents.
• Vodafone (VOD +3.78% fell 3% in after-hours trading after Verizon (VZ) disclosed in a regulatory filing that it is interested in buying Vodafone's stake in Verizon Wireless, but not in buying Vodafone itself.
• MagicJack (CALL +6.94%) rallied 13% in after-hours trading after announcing positive earnings.
• Zynga (ZNGA -2.85%) rallied 8% in after-hours trading after the company announced its first games involving real money in the U.K.
• Newfield (NFX +0.78%) rallied 7% in after-hours trading after announcing a natural gas discovery.
• Zoltek (ZOLT -0.16%) rallied 5% in after-hours trading after announcing it would conduct a review of strategic alternatives.
• Global Payments (GPN -0.26%) fell 6% in after-hours trading after announcing negative earnings.
• Tesla (TSLA +0.93%) fell 2% in after-hours trading after announcing a new financing product for its Model S. electric vehicle.

MARKET COMMENTS

June 10-year T-notes (ZNM13 -0.05%) are up by +0.5 tick. June 10-year T-note prices on Tuesday closed mildly higher on reduced safe-haven demand with the rally in U.S. stocks and the sharp drop in the Italian 10-year bond yield. Closes: TYM3 -4.5, FVM3 -1.75.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.11%) and EUR/USD (^EURUSD) are virtually unchanged this morning. EUR/USD (^USDJPY) received a little underlying support from news that the IMF reached an agreement with Cyprus for a 1 billion euro contribution to its bailout. USD/JPY is slightly higher by +0.07 yen (+0.07%) as the market looks ahead to Thursday's expected QE expansion announcement from the BOJ after its 2-day meeting. The dollar index on Monday closed mildly higher on the stronger-than-expected factory orders report while EUR/USD fell on worries that there may be a dovish outcome at Thursday’s ECB meeting considering that the Eurozone Feb unemployment rate yesterday rose to a new record high of 12.0%. Closes: Dollar index +0.191 (+0.23%), EUR/USD -0.0029 (-0.23%), USD/JPY +0.21 (+0.23%).
May WTI crude oil (CLK13 -0.48%) is down -0.49 (-0.50%) and May gasoline (RBK13 -1.00%) is down -0.0373 (-1.23%) as bearish sentiment continues. Crude oil on Tuesday closed slightly higher but gasoline fell sharply as the market expects the surge in the refinery operation rate in the past two weeks to translate soon into higher gasoline production and higher inventories. Gasoline also saw technical selling as it appeared headed for a test of the recent 2-month low and a further correction of the Dec-Feb rally. Closes: CLK3 +0.12 (+0.12%), RBK3 -0.0607 (-1.96%).

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR04/03/2013

US	0700 ET	Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous +7.7% with purchase sub-index +6.7% and refi sub-index +8.0%.
	0815 ET	March ADP employment change expected +200,000, Feb +198,000.
	1000 ET	March ISM non-manufacturing index expected -0.2 to 55.8, Feb +0.8 to 56.0.
	1030 ET	DOE Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
	1530 ET	San Francisco Fed President John Williams speaks on economy and monetary policy to Town Hall in Los Angeles.
	1700 ET	St. Louis Fed President James Bullard introduces lecture by Glenn Hubbard, former Chairman of Economic Advisors, in St. Louis.
UK	0430 ET	UK March construction PMI expected +1.2 to 48.0, Feb 46.8.
EUR	0500 ET	Eurozone March CPI expected +1.6% y/y, Feb +1.8% y/y.
JPN	n/a	BOJ 2-day meeting begins.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR04/03/2013

Company Name	Symbol	Time	Event Description	Period	EPS Est (US$)
Monsanto Co	MON US	Bef-mkt	Q2 2013 Earnings Release	Q2 2013	2.565
ConAgra Foods Inc	CAG US	7:30	Q3 2013 Earnings Release	Q3 2013	0.563
ConAgra Foods Inc	CAG US	9:30	Q3 2013 Earnings Call	Q3 2013
Monsanto Co	MON US	9:30	Q2 2013 Earnings Call	Q2 2013
McCormick & Co Inc/MD	MKC US	10:00	Annual General Meeting	Y 2013
Hanesbrands Inc	HBI US	18:30	Annual General Meeting
Walgreen Co	WAG US		March 2013 Sales and Revenue Release	2013
AutoNation Inc	AN US		March 2013 Sales and Revenue Release	2013
IntercontinentalExchange Inc	ICE US		March 2013 Sales and Revenue Release	2013