BARCHART MORNING CALL 12/10

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Tuesday, December 10th, 2013View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ13 -0.01%) this morning are up +0.10% and European stocks are up +0.19%. Asian stocks closed mostly lower: Japan -0.25%, Hong Kong -0.28%, China +0.10%, Taiwan -0.01%, Australia -0.02%, Singapore -1.03%, South Korea -0.39%, India -0.33%. Asian stocks were mostly lower after China Nov industrial production rose less than expected, while European stocks gained after UK industrial output rose as expected. Reduced European sovereign debt concerns were another positive for European shares after the yield spread between Spanish 10-year bonds and German bunds narrowed to as low as 220 bp, the least in 2-1/2 years. Commodity prices are mostly higher. Jan crude oil (CLF14 +1.28%) is up +1.19% at a 6-week high. Jan gasoline (RBF14 +0.93%) is up +1.06%. Feb gold (GCG14 +1.17%) is up +0.96%. March copper (HGH14 +0.37%) is up +0.48% at a 2-week high after LME copper inventories tumbled -3,225 MT to a 9-3/4 month low of 402,050 MT. Agricultural and livestock prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.08%) is down -0.04% at a 5-week low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.04% at a 5-week high after ECB Executive Board member Coeure said the Eurozone "is nowhere near deflation," which signals the ECB may not expand its stimulus measures. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.17%. March T-note prices (ZNH14 +0.28%) are up +10 ticks.
China Nov industrial production rose +10.0% y/y, weaker than expectations of +10.1% y/y and the slowest pace in 4-months, although Nov retail sales climbed at a +13.7% y/y pace, better than expectations of +13.2% y/y and the fastest pace in 11-months.
ECB Executive Board member Coeure said that while price gains are low, the Eurozone "is nowhere near deflation" and that inflation rates will come back to 2% "at some later point but not so long after" the ECB's forecast horizon of 2015.
Japan Nov machine tool orders climbed +15.4% y/y, the fastest pace in 23-months.
The Japan Oct tertiary industry index unexpectedly fell -0.7% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.1% m/m.
The Japan Q3 BSI large all industry business conditions fell back to 8.3 from 12.0 in Q3 and the Q4 BSI large manufacturing business conditions dropped to 9.7 from 15.2 in Q3.
Japan Nov consumer confidence rose +1.3 to 42.5, a smaller increase than expectations of +1.8 to 43.0.
UK Oct industrial production rose +0.4% m/m and +3.2% y/y, right on expectations, and Oct manufacturing production rose +0.4% m/m and +2.7% y/y, slightly weaker than expectations of +0.4% m/m and +2.9% y/y.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

The Treasury today will kick off this week’s $64 billion auction package by selling $30 billion in 3-year T-notes. The Treasury will then sell $21 billion of reopened 10-year T-notes on Wednesday and $13 billion of opened 30-year bonds on Thursday. There are 7 of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: Toll Brothers (consensus $0.43), Greif (0.83), HD Supply (0.36), Leidos Holdings (0.40), Autozone (6.28), John Wiley (0.73), H&R Block (-0.37).
Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: UBS Global Media and Communications Conference on Mon-Wed, Raymond James Systems Semiconductors, Software & Supply Chain Conference on Mon-Tue, Bloomberg Enterprise Technology Summit on Tue,
Jefferies Storage Summit on Tue, BMO Capital MarketsTechnology & Digital Media Conference on Tue, Raymond James Supply Chain Conference on Tue, Oppenheimer Health Care Conference on Tue-Wed, Goldman Sachs Financial Services Conference on Tue-Wed, Bank of America Merrill Lynch US Basic Materials Conference on Tue-Wed, BMO Technology and Digital Media Conference on Tue-Wed, BMO Capital Markets Technology, Media & Entertainment Conference on Tue-Wed, Wells Fargo Energy Symposium on Wed, Wells Fargo Securities Pipeline, MLP, and Energy Symposium on Wed, Capital One Southcoast Energy Conference on Wed-Thu, Barclays Information and IT Services Forum on Thu, Barclays Select Series Information and IT Series Forum Conference on Thu, and AHIP Exchange Conference 2013 on Thu.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Citigroup keeps a 'Buy' rating on FedEx (FDX +0.30%) and raised its price target on the stock to $170 from $140.
Celgene (CELG +2.15%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Neutral' at Credit Suisse.
Burlington Stores (BURL +0.29%) reported a Q3 adjusted EPS loss of -5 cents, smaller than consensus of -6 cents.
AutoZone (AZO -0.49%) reported Q1 EPS of $6.29, stronger than consensus of $6.27.
Toll Brothers (TOL +2.10%) reported Q4 EPS of 54 cents, better than consensus of 43 cents
Harman (HAR -0.36%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at Wells Fargo who also raised their price target on the stock to $95-$100 from $74-$78.
Vivendi (VIVHY -0.31%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Deutsche Bank.
Vail Resorts (MTN +1.44%) reported a Q1 EPS loss of -$2.04, a bigger loss than consensus of -$1.91.
Casey's General Stores (CASY -1.43%) reported Q2 EPS of $1.06, below consensus of $1.14.
Pep Boys (PBY -0.22%) slumped over 12% in pre-market trading after it reported Q3 EPS of 2 cents, well below consensus of 14 cents.

MARKET COMMENTS

Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ13 -0.01%) this morning are up +1.75 points (+0.10%). The S&P 500 index on Monday rose to a 1-week high and closed higher on carry-over support from Friday’s stronger-than-expected Nov non-farm payrolls report, which bolstered speculation the economy is strong enough to handle QE3 tapering. Stocks also received a boost on signs of strength in the global economy after China Nov exports rose +12.7% y/y, more than expectations of +7.0% y/y and the most in 7 months. Closes: S&P 500 +0.18%, Dow Jones +0.03%, Nasdaq 100 +0.34%.
Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH14 +0.28%) this morning are up +10 ticks. Mar T-notes on Monday closed higher on signs the Fed may limit its reduction of bond purchases after St. Louis Fed President Bullard said any reduction in bond buying should be modest to account for low inflation. Bullard also said “should inflation not return toward the Fed’s 2% target, the FOMC could pause tapering at subsequent meetings.” Closes: TYH4 +4.00, FVH4 +1.25.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.08%) this morning is down -0.033 (-0.04%) at a fresh 5-week low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0006 (+0.04%) at a 5-week high and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.18 (-0.17%). The dollar index on Monday fell to a 5-week low and closed lower as strength in stocks reduced the safe-haven demand for the dollar. EUR/USD posted a 5-week high on signs of stronger economic growth in Europe after German Oct exports unexpectedly rose +0.2% m/m, better than expectations of a -0.5% m/m decline. Closes: Dollar index -0.181 (-0.23%), EUR/USD +0.00356 (+0.26%), USD/JPY +0.344 (+0.33%).
Jan WTI crude oil (CLF14 +1.28%) this morning is up +$1.16 a barrel (+1.19%) at a 6-week high and Jan gasoline (RBF14 +0.93%) is up +2.84 cents a gallon (+1.06%). Jan crude oil and gasoline prices on Monday closed lower. Crude prices fell on concern about global demand after German Oct industrial production unexpectedly declined. Gasoline was dragged lower on signs that U.S. refiners will continue to boost gasoline output after the utilization rate for U.S. refiners in the week ended Nov 29 rose to 92.4%, the highest seasonal level in 9 years. Closes: CLF4 -0.31 (-0.03%), RBF4 -0.0571 (-2.09%).

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR12/10/2013

US	1000 ET	Oct wholesale inventories expected +0.3%, Sep +0.4%. Oct wholesale trade sales expected +0.2%, Sep +0.6%.
	1200 ET	Dec WASDE crop production report.
	1300 ET	Treasury auctions $30 billion 3-year T-notes.
	1630 ET	API weekly U.S. oil statistics.
JPN	0000 ET	Japan Nov consumer confidence index expected +2.3 to 43.4, Oct 41.2.
	0100 ET	Japan Nov machine tool orders, Oct +8.4% y/y
	1850 ET	Japan Oct machine orders expected +0.7% m/m and +15.0% y/y, Sep -2.1% m/m and +11.4% y/y.
	1850 ET	Japan Nov domestic CGPI expected +0.1% m/m and +2.7% y/y, Oct -0.1% m/m and +2.5% y/y.
CHI	0030 ET	China Nov industrial production expected +10.1% y/y, Oct +10.3% y/y.
	0030 ET	China Nov retail sales expected +13.2% y/y, Oct +13.3% y/y.
UK	0430 ET	UK Oct industrial production expected +0.4% m/m and +3.2% y/y, Sep +0.9% m/m and +2.2% y/y.
	0430 ET	UK Oct manufacturing production expected +0.4% m/m and +2.9% y/y, Sep +1.2% m/m and +0.8% y/y.
EUR	0700 ET	ECB President Mario Draghi speaks at a conference in Rome.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR12/10/2013

Company Name	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Toll Brothers Inc	TOL US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2013 Earnings Release	Q4 2013	0.426
Greif Inc	GEF US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2013 Earnings Release	Q4 2013	0.826
HD Supply Holdings Inc	HDS US	6:00	Q3 2014 Earnings Release	Q3 2014	0.361
Leidos Holdings Inc	LDOS US	6:01	Q3 2014 Earnings Release	Q3 2014	0.403
AutoZone Inc	AZO US	7:00	Q1 2014 Earnings Release	Q1 2014	6.277
Cardinal Health Inc	CAH US	8:00	Investor and Analyst Day	Y 2013
John Wiley & Sons Inc	JW/A US	8:00	Q2 2014 Earnings Release	Q2 2014	0.725
Leidos Holdings Inc	LDOS US	8:00	Q3 2014 Earnings Call	Q3 2014
HD Supply Holdings Inc	HDS US	8:00	Q3 2014 Earnings Call	Q3 2014
TD Ameritrade Holding Corp	AMTD US	8:30	November 2013 Sales and Revenue Release	2013
Broadcom Corp	BRCM US	8:30	Analyst Day	Y 2013
Harsco Corp	HSC US	9:00	Investor Day	Y 2013
PVH Corp	PVH US	9:00	Q3 2014 Earnings Call	Q3 2014
Tesoro Corp	TSO US	9:00	Analyst and Investor Meeting	Y 2013
Fiserv Inc	FISV US	9:30	Investor Conference	Y 2013
AutoZone Inc	AZO US	10:00	Q1 2014 Earnings Call	Q1 2014
John Wiley & Sons Inc	JW/A US	10:00	Q2 2014 Earnings Call	Q2 2014
Thor Industries Inc	THO US	13:00	Annual General Meeting	Y 2013
Toll Brothers Inc	TOL US	14:00	Q4 2013 Earnings Call	Q4 2013
Greif Inc	GEF US	15:00	Q4 2013 Earnings Call	Q4 2013
H&R Block Inc	HRB US	Aft-mkt	Q2 2014 Earnings Release	Q2 2014	-0.37
Equifax Inc	EFX US		Investor Meeting - Los Angeles	Y 2013

Barchart Morning call 9/11

Barchart Morning Call

BC - Wed Sep 11, 6:43AM CDT

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

September E-mini S&Ps (ESU13 -0.06%) this morning are little changed, down -0.01%, while European stocks are up +0.40%. Asian stocks closed mostly higher: Japan +0.01%, Hong Kong -0.17%, China +0.32%, Taiwan unch, Australia +0.64%, Singapore -0.50%, South Korea +0.45%, India unch. Most global stocks are higher on reduced concern of a U.S. military strike against Syria after President Obama Tuesday night said he will pursue a Russian proposal to have Syria surrender its stockpiles of chemical weapons to international authorities. Commodity prices are mixed. Oct crude oil (CLV13 -0.09%) is down -0.07% and Oct gasoline (RBV13 +0.16%) is up +0.22%. Dec gold (GCZ13 -0.28%) is down -0.28% and Dec copper (HGZ13 +0.46%) is up +0.41%. Agricultural and livestock prices are higher. The dollar index (DXY00 unch) is unch. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.09% and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.09%. The British pound surged to a 7-month high against the dollar after the UK unemployment rate unexpectedly fell. December T-note prices (ZNZ13 +0.13%) are up +5.5 ticks.
UK Aug jobless claims fell -32,600, a bigger decline than expectations of -21,000, while Jun was revised to show a -36,300 decline, more than the originally reported -29,200. The Aug claimant count rate unexpectedly fell -0.1 to 4.2%, better than expectations of unch at 4.3% and the lowest in 4-1/2 years.
The UK July ILO unemployment rate averaged over 3-months unexpectedly fell -0.1 to 7.7%, better than expectations of unch at 7.8% and matched a 4-year low.
ECB Governing Council member Coene raised concern that Greece will need additional aid when he said that "It's clear that we haven't reached the end of the Greece problem for the moment, and that additional efforts will have to be made, one time for certain, possibly two times."
Japan Q3 BSI business condition large all industry jumped to 12.0 from 5.9 in Q2, the highest since data began in 2004. The Q3 BSI business condition large manufacturing climbed to 15.2 from 5.0 in Q2, the highest since Q3 2009.
The Japan Aug domestic CGPI rose +0.3% m/m and +2.4% y/y, close to expectations of +0.4% m/m and +2.4% y/y, while July was revised upward to +0.6% m/m and +2.3% y/y from the originally reported +0.5% m/m and +2.2% y/y.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

The global stock markets are benefiting as the chances recede for a U.S. military attack on Syria with Congressional opposition combined with the new Russian plan for Syria to give up control of its chemical weapons. The focus is shifting to the continuing resolution that is necessary by Oct 1 as House Republican leaders have a plan for getting a continuing resolution through the House, except that Tea Party members of the House are not happy about the plan. The Treasury today will sell $21 billion in 10-year T-notes as this week's $66 billion coupon package continues. There are no major earnings reports today.
Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include the following: Barclays Global Financial Services Conference on Mon-Wed, Morgan Stanley Healthcare Conference on Mon-Wed, Vertical Research Partners Industrial Conference on Mon-Wed, Clinical Trial Supply USA on Tue-Wed, Rodman & Renshaw Health Care Conference on Tue-Wed, DA Davidson & Co Engineering & Construction Conference on Tue-Wed, Robert W Baird and Co Health Care Conference on Tue-Wed, KeyBanc Capital Markets Basic Materials & Packaging Conference on Tue-Wed, Goldman Sachs Global Retailing Conference on Tue-Wed, Deutsche Bank Access Technology Conference on Tue-Wed, RBC Capital Markets Global Industrials Conference on Tue-Wed, Stifel Nicolaus & Co Health Care Conference on Tue-Thu, Biofuels International 2013 Conference on Wed, Credit Suisse Asian Technology Conference on Wed, UBS Global Paper & Forest Products Conference on Thu, UBS Best of Americas Conference on Thu-Fri, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Real Estate Conference on Wed-Fri, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Healthcare Conference on Wed-Thu, Goldman Sachs Global Commodities Conference on Wed-Thu, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Media, Communications & Entertainment Conference on Wed-Thu, Barclays Capital CEO Energy - Power Conference on Wed-Thu, Barclays CEO Energy Power Conference on Wed-Thu, CL King & Associates Inc Best Ideas Conference on Wed-Thu, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Canada Mining Conference on Thu, and Bloomberg Canadian Fixed Income Conference on Thu.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Morgan Stanley (MS +2.19%) was upgraded to "Buy" from "Neutral" at UBS.
Procter & Gamble (PG -0.27%) was downgraded to "Neutral" from "Buy" at SunTrust.
Nokia (NOK +2.54%) was upgraded to "Buy" from "Neutral" at BofA/Merrill.
Apple (AAPL -2.28%) was downgraded to "Neutral" from "Buy" at BofA/Merrill and was downgraded to "Neutral" from "Outperform" at Credit Suisse.
Brocade (BRCD -0.13%) said it will cut 300 jobs, consolidate facilities, and take $30 million-$40 million in charges in Q4.
Raytheon (RTN +1.37%) was awarded a $136.25 million government contract for MK15 Phalanx Close-In Weapon System upgrades and conversions, system overhauls and associated hardware.
Bloomberg reported that Verizon (VZ +1.22%) plans to sell between $45 billion-$49 billion of debt to finance its acquisition of Vodafone's (VOD -0.99%) stake in Verizon Wireless.
S&P cuts Argentina's debt rating to CCC+ from B- with a Negative Outlook.
Southeastern Asset reported a 11.9% passive stake in News Corp (NWSA +1.41%) .
International Paper (IP +0.24%) announced a $1.5 billion share repurchase plan and raised its quarterly dividend to 35 cents from 30 cents.
Waddell & Reed reported a 10.1% passive stake in Harman (HAR +0.98%) .
Cohen & Steers reported a 10.47% passive stake in Healthcare Trust (HTA -0.09%) .
Restoration Hardware (RH -0.96%) reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 49 cents, stronger than consensus of 43 cents, and raised guidance on fiscal 2013 EPS view to $1.65-$1.70, better than consensus of $1.48.
Select Equity Group reported a 11.7% passive stake in PBF Energy (PBF +0.09%) .
Oxford Industries (OXM +1.35%) reported Q2 adjusted EPS of $1.01, better than consensus of 98 cents, but then lowered guidance on fiscal 2013 EPS view to $2.90-$3.05 from $3.00-$3.15, lower than consensus of $3.12.

MARKET COMMENTS

Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU13 -0.06%) this morning are down -0.25 of a point (-0.01%). The S&P 500 index on Tuesday rose to a 3-1/2 week high and closed higher. Bullish factors included (1) strong Chinese economic data that boosted global economic prospects after China Aug industrial production climbed +10.4% y/y, the most in 17 months, and after China Aug retail sales rose +13.4% y/y, the fastest pace in 8 months, and (2) hopes that a U.S. attack on Syria will be averted with Russia’s proposal for Syria to relinquish control of its chemical weapons and with no assurance of Congressional approval of a U.S. attack in any case. Closes: S&P 500 +0.73%, Dow Jones +0.85%, Nasdaq 100 +0.48%.
Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ13 +0.13%) this morning are up +5.5 ticks. Dec 10-year T-note prices on Tuesday closed lower on reduced safe-haven demand as the S&P 500 rallied to a 3-1/2 week high on strong Chinese economic data and speculation that a Russian proposal for Syria to put its chemical weapons under international control will avert a U.S. military strike. Closes: TYZ3 -13.50, FVZ3 -9.25.
The dollar index (DXY00 unch) this morning is unch. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0012 (-0.09%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.09 (-0.09%). The dollar index on Tuesday closed slightly higher. The dollar rose on expectations that the Fed will taper QE3 at next week’s FOMC meeting along with weakness in the yen after USD/JPY climbed to a 1-1/2 month high after the minutes of the BOJ’s Aug 7-8 policy meeting showed policy board members said BOJ bond purchases were putting downward pressure on yields and that consumer-price expectations had turned positive. Closes: Dollar index +0.016 (+0.02%), EUR/USD +0.00127 (+0.10%), USD/JPY +0.801 (+0.80%).
Oct WTI crude oil (CLV13 -0.09%) this morning is down -8 cents (-0.07%) and Oct gasoline (RBV13 +0.16%) is up +0.0059 (+0.22%). Oct crude oil and gasoline prices on Tuesday closed lower with Oct gasoline at a 1-month low. The main bearish factor for crude prices was the report that Syria will agree to a Russian proposal that Syria puts its chemical weapons stockpiles under international control, which reduces concern of a U.S. military strike on Syria that could cause wider conflict in the Middle East and possibly disrupt oil shipments. Closes: CLV3 -2.13 (-1.94%), RBV3 -0.0655 (-2.34%).

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR09/11/2013

US	0700 ET	Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous +1.3% with purchase sub-index -0.4% and refi sub-index +2.4%.
	1000 ET	July wholesale inventories expected +0.3%, Jun -0.2%. July wholesales trade sales expected +0.5%, Jun +0.4%.
	1030 ET	EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
	1300 ET	Treasury auctions $21 billion 10-year T-notes.
GER	0200 ET	Revised German Aug CPI (EU harmonized), previous unch m/m and +1.6% y/y.
UK	0430 ET	UK Aug jobless claims change expected -21,000, July -29,200. Aug claimant count rate expected unch at 4.3%, July 4.3%.
	0430 ET	UK July avg weekly earnings expected +1.3% 3-mo/year-over-year, Jun +2.1% 3-mo/year-over-year. July weekly earnings ex-bonus expected +1.0% 3-mo/year-over-year, Jun +1.1% 3-mo/year-over-year.
	0430 ET	UK July ILO unemployment rate expected 7.8% 3-mo, June 7.8% 3-mo.
JPN	1950 ET	Japan July machine orders expected +2.4% m/m and +7.7% y/y, Jun -2.7% m/m and +4.9% y/y.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR09/11/2013

Company Name	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
SAIC Inc	SAI US	8:30	Investor Day	Y 2013
Apple Inc	AAPL US	10:00	US Court of Appeals Hears Arguments on Apple vs Motorola Mobility
Google Inc	GOOG US	10:00	US Court of Appeals Hears Arguments on Apple vs Motorola Mobility
Mastercard Inc	MA US	10:00	Investment Community Meeting	Y 2013
Legg Mason Inc	LM US	12:30	Investors and Analysts Meeting	Y 2013
United Parcel Service Inc	UPS US		Roadshow - Baltimore	Y 2013

5 Large Cap Winners

Today I used Barchart to sort the  S&P 500 Large Cap Index to find the stocks that have increased the most in the last 3 months.  The list includes Flir Systems (FLIR) 29.27%,  Harmon International Industries (HAR) 28.61%, Goodyear Tire and Rubber (GT) 26.72%, Tyson Foods (TSN) 26.25% and E-Trade Financial (ETFC) 26.11%:

Flir Systems (FLIR)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 16% Barchart technical buy signals
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 50 and 100 daily average but below its 20 DMA
• 17 new highs and up 29.27% in the last 3 months
• Relative Strength Index 58.39%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 31.63
• Recently traded at 32.18 with a 50 day moving average of 29.12

Harman International Industries (HAR)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 88% Barchart technical buy signals
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 20 new highs and up 28.61% in the last 3 months
• Relative Strength Index 66.53%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 66.38
• Recently traded at 66.99 with a 50 day moving average of 57.04

Goodyear Tire and Rubber (GT)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 72% Barchart technical buy signals
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 16 new highs and up 26.72% in the last 3 months
• Relative Strength Index 60.51%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 18.33
• Recently traded at 18.60 with a 50 day moving average of 16.78

Tyson Foods (TSN)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 96% Barchart technical buy signals
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 26 new highs and up 26.25% in the last 3 months
• Relative Strength Index 80.23%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 31.21
• Recently traded at 31.53 with a 50 day moving average of 27.45

E-Trade Financial (ETFC)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 16% Barchart technical buy signals
• Trend Spotter hold signal
• Above its 50 and 100 day moving averages but below its 20 DMA
• 23 new highs and up 26.11% in the last  3 month
• Relative Strength Index 57.61%
• Barchatrt computes a technical support level at 14.23
• Recently traded at 14.56 with a 50 day moving average of 13.46

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Barchart Morning Call 8/8

Barchart Morning Call

BC - 1 hr 34 mins ago

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

September E-mini S&Ps (ESU13 +0.39%) this morning are up +0.36% and European stocks are up +0.72% after China's exports and imports rose more than expected last month, a sign the Chinese economy is stabilizing. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan -1.59%, Hong Kong +0.31%, China -0.17%, Taiwan -0.17%, Australia +1.07%, South Korea +0.26%, India +0.67%. Commodity prices are higher. Sep crude oil (CLU13 -0.21%) is up +0.05%, Sep gasoline (RBU13 +0.11%) is up +0.17%, Dec gold (GCZ13 +0.25%) is up +0.26%, and Sep copper (HGU13 +2.51%) is up +2.74% at a 1-3/4 month high on stronger-than-expected trade data from China, the biggest copper consumer. Agricultural and livestock prices are higher with Oct cattle up +2.41% at a 4-month high after Tyson Foods, the top U.S. meat processor, said it plans to stop buying animals fed with the feed supplement Zilmax, made by Merk & Co., after discovering lame livestock at factories. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.16%) is down -0.17% at a 1-1/2 month low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.17% at a 1-1/2 month high after German exports rose in July and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.02% at a 1-1/2 month low after the yen strengthened when the BOJ refrained from adding additional stimulus. September T-note prices (ZNU13 +0.02%) are unchanged.
China's July trade balance was a $17.82 billion surplus, smaller than expectations of $26.90 billion. July exports rose +5.1% y/y, stronger than expectations of +2.0% y/y and July imports jumped +10.9% y/y, stronger than expectations of +1.0% y/y.
Germany's Jun trade balance was in surplus by 16.9 billion euros, more than expectations of 15.0 billion euros. Jun exports rose +0.6% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.9% m/m and Jun imports unexpectedly fell -0.8% m/m, weaker than expectations of a +0.5% m/m increase.
The Japan July eco watchers survey current unexpectedly fell to a 6-month low of 52.3 from 53.0 in Jun, weaker than expectations of a +0.5 point increase to 53.5. The July eco watchers survey outlook was unchanged at 53.6 from Jun, also weaker than expectations of a +0.5 point increase to 54.1.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

The Treasury today will sell $16 billion in 30-year T-bonds, concluding this week's $72 billion Treasury coupon package. Today’s weekly initial unemployment claims report is expected to show an increase of +9,000 to 335,000, reversing part of last week’s decline of -19,000 to 326,000. Meanwhile, continuing claims are expected to show a small +2,000 increase to 2.953 million following last week’s decline of -52,000 to 2.951 million. There are 8 of the S&P 500 companies that are scheduled to report earnings today: Scripps (consensus $1.05), Windstream (0.09), NVIDIA (0.19), Monster Beverage (0.64), CareFushion (0.56), Priceline.com (9.43), Beam (0.60), AES (0.28).
Conferences during the remainder of this week include the Mitsubishi Technology Tour on Mon-Thu, Goldman Sachs Power and Utility Conferenceon Thu, and Nasdaq Summer Analyst Conference on Fri.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Scripps Networks Interactive (SNI +1.13%) reported Q2 EPS of $1.08, better than consensus of $1.05.
Windstream (WIN +0.35%) reported Q2 EPS of 8 cents, weaker than consensus of 9 cents.
CenturyLink (CTL +0.58%) reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 69 cents, above consensus of 67 cents.
American Water (AWK +0.26%) reported Q2 EPS of 57 cents, below consensus of 61 cents.
Jack in the Box (JACK +0.27%) reported Q3 EPS ex-items of 41 cents, better than consensus of 38 cents, and raised guidance on fiscal 2013 EPS ex-items to $1.72-$1.78, above consensus of $1.65.
Arris (ARRS +2.02%) reported Q2 EPS adjusted EPS of 46 cents, well ahead of consensus of 26 cents, and said the order backlog at the end of Q2 was $534.9 million.
Mondelez (MDLZ -1.88%) reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 37 cents, stronger than consensus of 34 cents.
Matson (MATX -1.61%) reported Q2 EPS of 47 cents, better than consensus of 44 cents.
RealD (RLD -2.82%) signed an exclusive 10-year deal with Mexico's Cinemex that calls for approximately 700 auditoriums across the Cinemex circuit in Mexico to be equipped with RealD 3D technology, including the removal of approximately 540 alternative 3D systems that will be replaced with RealD 3D within the next two years.
Prudential (PRU -1.68%) reported Q2 adjusted EPS of $2.30, stronger than consensus of $1.99.
Tesla (TSLA -5.57%) rose 7% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 comparable EPS of 5 cents, well ahead of consensus of a -17 cents loss.
Green Mountain (GMCR -2.53%) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 82 cents, better than consensus of 77 cents, and raised its fiscal 2013 EPS view to $3.19-$3.24 from $3.05-$3.15, higher than consensus of $3.18.

MARKET COMMENTS

Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU13 +0.39%) this morning are up +6.00 points (+0.36%). The S&P 500 index on Wednesday fell to a 1-week low and closed lower as heightened speculation the Fed may be nearer to cutting QE3 fueled long liquidation and profit-taking in stocks. On the positive side, 72% of the 432 S&P 500 companies that have reported Q2 earnings results thus far have beaten expectations. Closes: S&P 500 -0.38%, Dow Jones -0.31%, Nasdaq 100 -0.11%.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU13 +0.02%) this morning are unchanged. Sep 10-year T-note prices on Wednesday closed higher after a slide in the S&P 500 to a 1-week low boosted the safe-haven demand for Treasuries. Closes: TYU3 +9.00, FVU3 +2.75.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.16%) this morning is down -0.136 (-0.17%) at a 1-1/2 month low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0023 (+0.16%) at a 1-1/2 month high and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.02 (-0.02%) at a 1-1/2 month low. The dollar index on Wednesday fell to a 1-1/2 month low and closed lower. EUR/USD closed higher after German Jun industrial production rose +2.4% m/m, the biggest increase in 23 months. USD/JPY dropped to a 1-1/2 month low on speculation the BOJ probably won't expand stimulus measures at its 2-day meeting that ends Thursday. Closes: Dollar index -0.316 (-0.39%), EUR/USD +0.0031 (+0.23%), USD/JPY -1.403 (-1.44%).
Sep WTI crude oil (CLU13 -0.21%) this morning is up +5 cents a barrel (+0.05%) and Sep gasoline (RBU13 +0.11%) is up +0.0049 (+0.17%). Sep crude oil and gasoline prices on Wednesday closed lower. Bearish factors included (1) weekly EIA data that showed U.S. crude production rose +0.2% to 7.56 million barrels a day in the week ended Aug 2, the most in 23-1/2 years, and (2) the slide in gasoline to a 4-week low after weekly EIA gasoline inventories unexpectedly rose +135,000 bbl, higher than expectations for a -500,000 bbl draw. Limiting declines in crude was (1) the slide in the dollar index to a 1-1/2 month low, and (2) the -2.245 million bbl drop in crude oil stockpiles at Cushing, OK, the delivery point for WTI futures, to a 16-month low of 39.874 million bbl. Closes: CLU3 -0.93 (-0.88%), RBU3 -0.0440 (-1.51%).

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR08/08/2013

US	0830 ET	Weekly initial unemployment claims expected +9,000 to 335,000, previous -19,000 to 326,000. Weekly continuing claims expected +2,000 to 2.953 mln, previous -52,000 to 2.951 mln.
	0830 ET	USDA weekly Export Sales.
	1300 ET	Treasury auctions $16 billion 30-year T-bonds.
JPN	0030 ET	Japan July bankruptcies, Jun -8.0% y/y.
	0100 ET	Japan July eco watchers survey current expected 53.5, Jun 53.0, July eco watchers survey outlook expected 54.1, Jun 53.6.
	1950 ET	Japan Jun tertiary industry index expected -0.4%, May +1.2% m/m.
	n/a	BOJ announces interest rate decision.
GER	0200 ET	German Jun trade balance expected +15.0 billion euros, May +13.1 billion euros. Jun exports expected +0.9% m/m, May -2.0% m/m. Jun imports expected +0.5%, May +1.4% m/m.
CHI	2130 ET	China July PPI expected -2.1% y/y, Jun -2.7% y/y. July CPI expected +2.8% y/y, Jun +2.7% y/y.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR08/08/2013

Company Name	Symbol	Time	Event Description	Period	EPS Est (US$)
Scripps Networks Interactive Inc	SNI US	Bef-mkt	Q2 2013 Earnings Release	Q2 2013	1.053
Windstream Corp	WIN US	Bef-mkt	Q2 2013 Earnings Release	Q2 2013	0.088
L Brands Inc	LTD US	7:30	July 2013 Sales and Revenue Call	2013
Twenty-First Century Fox Inc	FOXA US	8:00	Investor Day	Y 2013
Windstream Corp	WIN US	8:30	Q2 2013 Earnings Call	Q2 2013
Progressive Corp/The	PGR US	9:00	Investor Relations Conferece Call
Harman International Industries Inc	HAR US	9:00	Investor Day	Y 2013
Scripps Networks Interactive Inc	SNI US	10:00	Q2 2013 Earnings Call	Q2 2013
Beam Inc	BEAM US	10:00	Q2 2013 Earnings Call	Q2 2013
AES Corp/VA	AES US	10:00	Q2 2013 Earnings Call	Q2 2013
Monster Beverage Corp	MNST US	Aft-mkt	Q2 2013 Earnings Release	Q2 2013	0.639
CareFusion Corp	CFN US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2013 Earnings Release	Q4 2013	0.555
priceline.com Inc	PCLN US	Aft-mkt	Q2 2013 Earnings Release	Q2 2013	9.433
Beam Inc	BEAM US		Q2 2013 Earnings Release	Q2 2013	0.601
Red Hat Inc	RHT US		Annual General Meeting
Ralph Lauren Corp	RL US		Annual General Meeting
Gap Inc/The	GPS US		July 2013 Sales and Revenue Release	2013
AES Corp/VA	AES US		Q2 2013 Earnings Release	Q2 2013	0.278
Costco Wholesale Corp	COST US		July 2013 Sales and Revenue Release	2013
Costco Wholesale Corp	COST US		July 2013 Sales and Revenue Call	2013
Humana Inc	HUM US		Investor Meeting	Y 2013
L Brands Inc	LTD US		July 2013 Sales and Revenue Release	2013
McDonald's Corp	MCD US		July 2013 Sales and Revenue Release	2013

Barchart Morning Call 8/10

Barchart Morning Call

BC - Fri Aug 10, 7:00AM CDT

Overnight Developments

• Sep E-mini S&Ps this morning are down -0.45% due to the -0.77% sell-off in European stocks and a much weaker-than-expected Chinese export report that indicated further deceleration in China's economy. Commodity prices are down by an average -0.34% this morning with Sep crude oil down -1.21%, Dec gold down -0.52%, Sep copper down -1.31%, and agricultural prices trading mostly higher. The grain markets are looking ahead to this morning's key USDA WASDE report where the USDA is expected to slash its corn and soybean estimates due to this summer's severe drought. The dollar index this morning is up +0.11 (+0.13%) on increased safe-haven demand, while EUR/USD is down -0.0037 (-0.30%). USD/JPY is down -0.20%. Sep 10-year T-notes are up +11 ticks this morning.
• Asian stocks today closed mostly lower due to the alarming Chinese export news: Japan -0.97%, Hong Kong -0.66%, China -0.50%, Taiwan +0.10%, Australia -0.72%, Singapore +0.06%, South Korea +0.32%, India -0.02%, Turkey -0.27%.
• China's July trade surplus fell to $25.15 billion from $31.72 billion in June and was substantially narrower than market expectations for a surplus of $35.05 billion. July exports rose by only +1.0% y/y, which was sharply below expectations of +8.0% y/y and +11.3% in June. July imports rose by +4.7%, down from +6.3% in June and well below expectations of +$7.0% y/y. The sharply lower level of export growth indicated that the Chinese economy is quickly losing its growth capacity due to poor overseas demand for Chinese exports. In fact, Chinese exports to Europe fell -16.2% y/y and Chinese exports to the U.S. were very weak at +0.6% y/y vs +10.6% y/y in June. The report bolstered expectations that the Chinese government will soon step in with additional growth measures such as a bank reserve ratio cut, a possible interest rate cut, and possibly new fiscal stimulus spending.
• China's July new loan report of 540.1 billion yuan was down sharply from June's 919.8 bln and was well below market expectations of 700 billion yuan. The weak level of bank lending was another indicator of slower Chinese economic growth.
• French June industrial production was unchanged m/m and -2.3% y/y, which was weaker than market expectations of +0.1% m/m and -1.8% y/y but an improvement from May's revised report of -2.1% m/m and -3.7% y/y.
• The UK PPI report was close to market expectations. The UK July input PPI rose by +1.3% m/m, the July output PPI was unchanged m/m, and the July core output PPI was unchanged m/m.
• The Russian central bank today after its policy meeting left rates unchanged and highlighted that there are "significant" inflation risks from a weaker harvest and that higher interbank rates are constraining lending growth.
• The International Energy Agency cut its estimate for oil use growth to +0.9% y/y in 2013, down from growth of +1.0% in 2012 and less than its prediction last month for 2013 growth of +1.1% y/y.
• Japan's upper house of Parliament approved an increase in the sales tax for the first time since 1997 in a victory for Prime Minister Noda who is trying to rein in Japan's massive budget deficit and debt load. The new law will double the 5% sales tax by 2015. Japan's lower house already passed the sales tax increase in June.
  Market Comments
  • Sep E-mini S&Ps this morning are down -0.45% thanks to the -0.77% sell-off in the Euro Stoxx 50, the very weak Chinese export growth report of +1.0%, the weak Chinese new loan report, and a slightly weaker than expected French industrial production report. The stock market on Thursday closed narrowly mixed: S&P 500 +0.04%, Dow Jones -0.08%, Nasdaq 100 +0.21%. Stocks were supported by the unexpected 6,000 decline in initial unemployment claims to 361,000, which was only 9,000 above the 4-1/3 year low of 352,000 posted in early July. The report was particularly encouraging since a Labor Department official said that the data was free of distortions from auto plant closures for retooling, which indicated the labor market is in better shape than earlier thought. The stock market was able to shake off bearish overnight news that included a weaker-than-expected Chinese July industrial production report +9.2% y/y (vs market expectations of +9.7% y/y), Chinese July retail sales +13.1% y/y (vs expectations of +13.5% y/y), India industrial production of -1.8% y/y (vs expectations of +0.4% y/y), and Japan June machine orders of +5.6% m/m (vs expectations of +12.0% m/m).
  • Sep 10-year T-notes this morning are sharply higher by +11 ticks due to poor Chinese export report, the sell-off in global stocks, and some supply relief after the conclusion of this week's $72 billion refunding operation. T-note prices on Thursday closed slightly lower: TYU2 -1, FVU2 -0.5. T-note prices were pressured by the decline in initial unemployment claims, which provided more evidence of a stronger-than-expected labor market following last Friday's news that July payrolls rose by +163,000.
  • The dollar index this morning is up +0.11 (+0.13%) on increased safe-haven demand with the sell-off in global stocks. EUR/USD is down -0.0037 (-0.30%) and USD/JPY is down -0.16 (-0.20%). The dollar index on Thursday closed mildly higher: Dollar index +0.24 (+0.29%), EUR/USD -0.0059 (-0.48%), USD/JPY +0.14 (+0.18%). The dollar was supported by the positive U.S. labor market data as seen in the 6,000 decline in initial unemployment claims. EUR/USD was undercut by the news in the ECB's monthly report that the ECB's survey of private forecasters found expectations for a -0.3% decline in 2012 Eurozone GDP, a slightly larger decline than its previous survey of -0.2%. Spanish and Italian bond yields were little changed on Thursday.
  • Sep WTI crude oil prices this morning are down -1.13 (-1.21%) and Sep gasoline is down -0.0322 (-1.07%) on pessimism about Chinese economic growth. Crude oil and gasoline prices on Thursday closed mildly lower: CLU2 +0.01 (+0.01%), RBU2 +0.0204 (+0.68%). Crude oil and gasoline saw support from the positive U.S. economic data as seen with the drop in initial unemployment claims. Meanwhile, a new tropical depression formed in the Atlantic that appears to be headed along roughly the same path as Ernesto, i.e., towards Central America and Mexico, and not towards the Gulf of Mexico. The storm may be designated as Tropical Storm Gordon by today. Gasoline prices in California continue to see upward pressure from the August 6 fire at Chevron's refinery in Richmond, California.
  • For the complete subscription version of this daily report (plus a 13-page big-picture weekly report), along with the earliest possible delivery in the morning, please visit http://www.barchart.com/register/crbfms_usmc.php
    Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (ranked by market cap): JC Penney (Consensus $-0.15), HAR-Harman Intl (0.64), HRG-Harbinger Group (na), EEQ-Enbridge Energy (na), RNF-Rentech Nitrogen (0.98).
    Global Financial Calendar
    

    Friday 8/10/12
    United States
    0830 ET	Jul import price index expected +0.2% m/m and -2.4% y/y, Jun -2.7% m/m and -2.6% y/y.
    1400 ET	Jul monthly budget statement expected -$103.0 billion, Jun -$59.741 billion.
    Japan
    0030 ET	Japan revised Jun industrial production, previous -0.1% m/m and -2.0% y/y. Revised June capacity utilization, previous -2.2% m/m.
    Germany
    0200 ET	German revised July CPI (EU harmonized) expected no change at +0.4% m/m and +2.0% y/y.
    United Kingdom
    0430 ET	U.K. July PPI input prices expected +1.3% m/m and -1.5% y/y, June -2.2% m/m and -2.3% y/y.

    Barchart.com provides Financial Quotes, Charts and Technical Analysis for Stock and Commodity Traders.

Harmon International - HAR - new highs

On Barchart's S&P 500 new highs list today:  Harmon (HAR)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 96% Barchart technical buy signal
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 14 new highs and up 16.73% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 69.05%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 42.48
• Recently traded at 43.88 with a 50 day moving average of 39.45

Harman (HAR) Sounds Great

Harman International (HAR) should be a name you immediately recognize. It is a high end, high quality manufacturer of audio and electronic products. This stock is a holding in my Marketocracy S&P 500 Fund (see disclosure below). HAR makes products for the automotive, consumer and professional markets. Their products are found in theaters, stadiums, homes and automobiles around the world.

J P Morgan has recently projected favorable sales estimates for the industry and had upgraded their recommendation to Overweight. 4 other analyst have also upped their future earnings estimates for HAR. The industry is projecting increasing sales and since their major competition in Bose, Boston Acoustics and Pioneer all of which are private and not traded, HAR is the only major play you can make in this industry.

On a technical analysis basis BarChart's TA indicators are 13 for 13 for a 100% BUY rating. The stock has hit 4 new highs in the last 20 trading sessions and 3 new highs in the last 5 trading sessions. The 65 day price appreciation has been 80%.