Showing posts with label WAG. Show all posts
Showing posts with label WAG. Show all posts

Monday, December 29, 2014

BARCHART MORNING CALL 12/29

BARCHART MORNING CALL

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
March E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 -0.18%) this morning are down -0.14% and European stocks are down -0.83% after Greek Prime Minister Samaras failed in a third and final attempt to get his presidential candidate, Stavros Dimas confirmed, which will trigger early elections in late Jan or early Feb. Greece's stock market plunged over 7% to a 2-year low and the 10-year German bund yield fell to a record low of 0.563% on heightened sovereign debt concerns. Greece's parliament will now be dissolved and general elections called, which raises concern that Syriza, an anti-austerity party that seeks to renegotiate Greek's debt, comes to power just before the EU's 240 billion euro ($292 billion) bailout to Greece expires. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan -0.50%, Hong Kong +1.82%, China +0.28%, Taiwan +0.74%, Australia +1.47%, Singapore +0.42%, South Korea -1.50%, India +0.57%. China's Shanghai Stock Index climbed to a 4-3/4 year high after a plunge in China Nov industrial profits bolstered speculation that the government will boost steps to spur lending and economic growth. Commodity prices are mixed. Feb crude oil (CLG15 +1.15%) is up +1.32%. Feb gasoline (RBG15 +0.63%) is up +0.99%. Feb gold (GCG15 -0.24%) is down -0.18%. Mar copper (HGH15 +0.05%) is down -0.07% at a 4-1/2 year low after China industrial profits fell the most in 2-1/4 years last month, which fueled speculation that demand from China, the world's largest copper consumer, will weaken. Agriculture prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.08%) is down -0.06%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.07%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.11%. Mar T-note prices (ZNH15 +0.20%) are up +6.5 ticks on carryover support from a rally German bunds to a record high.
China Nov industrial profits fell -4.2% y/y, twice as much as the -2.1% y/y decline in Oct and the biggest drop in 2-1/4 years.
ECB Governing Council member Liikanen said the ECB will assess the impact of monetary stimulus, balance sheet growth, and price developments when it meets on Jan 22 and that "we must be ready for new measures if exceptionally low inflation is prolonged and increases risks to price stability and the economy."
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
There are no U.S. economic reports today.  None of the Russell 3000 companies report earnings today.  There are no equity conferences this week.  
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Endologix (ELGX +0.20%) and Towers Watson (TW -0.47%) were identified as top picks at Piper Jaffray for 2015.
MarkWest Energy (MWE +0.33%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Equal Weight' at Stephens.
Manitowoc (MTW +4.29%) jumped over 10% in pre-market trading after activist investor Carl Icahn reported a 7.7% stake in the company.
Macquarie reiterates its 'Outperform' rating on Live Nation (LYV -0.34%) and raises its price target on the stock to $30 from $28.
Gilead ({=GILD =})was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Equal Weight' at Morgan Stanley who raised their price target on the stock to $104 from $100.
RF Micro Devices (RFMD +0.84%) and MacLinear (MXL +0.55%) were both downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Needham.
China Mobile selects Ericsson (ERIC +0.24%) as the sole supplier for its LTE FDD/TDD network.
A weekend article in Barron's said that CarMax (KMX unch) looks to have become a momentum stock and investors should consider buying General Motors (GM +0.90%) or Ford (F +0.98%) instead.
MARKET COMMENTS
Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 -0.18%) this morning are down -3.00 points (-0.14%). The S&P 500 index on Friday posted a fresh record high and closed higher: S&P 500 +0.33%, Dow Jones +0.13%, Nasdaq +0.72%. Bullish factors included (1) carry-over support from a rally in Chinese stocks on speculation the Chinese government will expand measures to spur economic growth, and (2) strength in retailer stocks after the International Council of Shopping Centers reported that early retail estimates showed the best holiday sales in 3 years.
Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH15 +0.20%) this morning are up +6.5 ticks. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices on Friday closed slightly higher: TYH5 +2, FVH5 +0.75. T-notes found carry-over support from a rally in Japan JGBs to a record high on speculation the BOJ may be forced to expand stimulus since Japan Nov CPI was weaker than expected. Limiting gains in T-notes was the rally in the S&P 500 to a new record high, which cut safe-haven demand.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.08%) this morning is down -0.053 (-0.06%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0008 (+0.07%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.13 (+0.11%). The dollar index on Friday closed higher. Closes: Dollar index +0.160 (+0.18%), EUR/USD -0.00404 (-0.33%), USD/JPY +0.275 (+0.23%). Bullish factors included (1) strength in USD/JPY which rose on speculation the BOJ may expand stimulus after Japan Nov CPI rose at its slowest pace in 8 months and after Nov industrial production unexpectedly declined, and (2) weakness in EUR/USD on expectations for the ECB to start QE next year while the Fed begins to raise interest rates.
Feb WTI crude oil (CLG15 +1.15%) this morning is up +72 cents (+1.32%) and Feb gasoline (RBG15 +0.63%) is up +0.0151 (+0.99%). Feb crude and Feb gasoline prices on Friday closed lower with Feb gasoline at a contract low. Closes: CLG5 -0.70 (-1.25%), RBG5 -0.0040 (-0.26%). Bearish factors included (1) a stronger dollar, and (2) a -17.7% y/y decline in Japan Nov oil imports. Losses were limited after fighting intensified between Libyan troops and Islamist militants at the Es Sider oil terminal, Libya’s largest petroleum port.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR12/29/2014
US0830 ETUSDA weekly Export Sales.
1030 ETDec Dallas Fed manufacturing activity expected -1.5 to 9.0, Nov unchanged at 10.5.
1100 ETUSDA weekly grain export inspections.
GERn/aGerman Nov retail sales expected 0.1% m/m and +0.6% y/y, Oct +1.6% m/m and +1.7% y/y.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR12/29/2014
CompanyTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Walgreen CoWAG USExtraordinary Shareholders Meeting - Restructuring VoteY 2014
TCP International Holdings LtdTCPI USSpecial Meeting

Tuesday, September 30, 2014

BARCHART MORNING CALL 9/30

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 +0.34%) this morning are up +0.30% and European stocks are up +0.94% as slower-than-expected Eurozone inflation bolstered speculation the ECB will boost stimulus. Other positives for European stocks included the upward revision to UK Q2 GDP and the surge in German Aug retail sales by the most in 3 years. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan -0.84%, Hong Kong -1.28%, China +0.13%, Taiwan +0.07%, Australia +0.54%, Singapore -0.39%, South Korea -0.46%, India +0.13%. Japanese stocks fell after Japan Aug industrial output unexpectedly declined, while Chinese shares gained after the PBOC loosened property policies for the first time since 2008 in an attempt to boost the housing market. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Stock Index tumbled to a 3-month low as pro-democracy protesters continued to block roads in central Hong Kong in the fifth day of protests. Commodity prices are mixed. Nov crude oil (CLX14 -0.12%) is down -0.04%. Nov gasoline (RBX14 +0.05%) is up +0.12%. Dec gold (GCZ14 -1.07%) is down -0.86%. Dec copper (HGZ14 -1.19%) is down -0.67%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.69%) is up +0.61% at a 4-1/4 year high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.88% at a 2-year low as weak Eurozone inflation data fuels speculation the ECB may expand stimulus to avert deflation. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.22%. Dec T-note prices (ZNZ14 -0.14%) are down -8 ticks.
The Eurozone Sep CPI estimate rose +0.3% y/y, right on expectations and the slowest pace of increase in 4-3/4 years. Sep core CPI rose +0.7% y/y, less than expectations of +0.9% y/y and matched the slowest pace of increase since the data series began in 1997.
The Eurozone Aug unemployment rate remained unchanged at 11.5%, right on expectations and the lowest in 2 years.
The German Sep unemployment change unexpectedly rose +12,000, more than expectations of -2,000. The Sep unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.7%, right on expectations and the lowest since data for a reunified Germany began in 1991.
German Aug retail sales rose +2.5% m/m, five times stronger than expectations of +0.5% m/m and the biggest increase in 3 years. On an annual basis, Aug retail sales rise +0.1% y/y, less than expectations of +0.3% y/y.
The China Sep HSBC manufacturing PMI was revised lower to 50.2 from the originally reported 50.5.
Japan Aug industrial production fell -1.5% m/m and -2.9% y/y, much weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m and -1.1% y/y with the -2.9% y/y fall the largest year-over-year decline in 14 months.
Japan Aug retail sales rose +1.9% m/m and +1.2% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.5% m/m and +0.1% y/y.
The Japan Aug jobless rate unexpectedly fell -0.3 to 3.5%, better than expectations of no change at 3.8% and matched the May low as the lowest in 17 years. The Aug job-to-applicant ratio was unch at 1.10, right on expectations and matched the highest in 25 years.
UK Sep GfK consumer confidence fell -2 to -1, a bigger decline than expectations of -1 to 0.
UK Sep nationwide house prices fell -0.2% m/m and rose +9.4% y/y, less than expectations of +0.5% m/m and +10.4% y/y.
UK Q2 GDP was revised higher to +0.9% q/q from the previously reported +0.8% q/q, but remained unchanged at +3.2% y/y.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today’s Sep U.S. consumer confidence index from the Conference Board is expected to show a small increase of +0.1 to 92.5, which would be a new 6-3/4 year high. Today’s July CaseShiller Composite-20 home price index is expected to show a -0.1 m/m decline, adding to the -0.3% decline in May and the -0.2% decline seen in June. Today’s Sep Chicago PMI index is expected to show a -2.3 point decline to 62.0, giving back a small part of the +11.7 point surge to 64.3 seen in August. There is one of the Russell 1000 companies that reports earnings today: Walgreen ($0.74).
Equity conferences this week include: Oracle OpenWorld 2014 on Mon-Wed, Johnson Rice Energy Conference on Mon-Tue, Bloomberg Canadian Fixed Income Conference on Tue, SACHS ASSOCIATES - Biotech in Europe Forum For Global Partnering & Investment on Tue, Deutsche Bank Leveraged Finance Conference on Tue, Leerink Partners Rare Disease Roundtable on Tue, JMP Securities Financial Services & Real Estate Conference on Tue, TAG Fall Consumer Conference on Tue, Unconventional Resources Conference Canada 2014 on Wed, and Paris Motor Show 2014-Press Days on Thu.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
eBay (EBAY -0.51%) jumped over 10% in pre-market trading after it said it will separate eBay and PayPal into independent publicly traded companies in 2015.
Toyota (TM -0.95%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Neutral' at JPMorgan Chase.
Alcoa (AA -1.61%) and Century Aluminum (CENX -2.89%) were both upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at BofA/Merrill.
Kellogg (K +0.10%) was downgraded to 'Underweight' from 'Equal Weight' at Morgan Stanley.
Teekay (TK +0.72%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Deutsche Bank with a price target of $90.
Walgreen (WAG -0.96%) reported Q4 EPS of 74 cents, right on consensus.
Priceline reported a 5.84% stake in Ctrip.com (CTRP -3.48%) .
Greenlight capital reported a 37.5% stake in Einstein Noah (BAGL +50.49%) .
Lone Pine Capital reported a 5.3% passive stake in Tiffany (TIF -0.79%) .
Cintas (CTAS -0.48%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 78 cents, higher than consensus 75 cents, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2015 EPS view to $3.20-$3.29 from $3.06-$3.15, higher than consensus of $3.09.
Raytheon (RTN -0.62%) and Lockheed Martin (LMT -0.12%) were both upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Stifel.
SYNNEX (SNX +1.20%) reported Q3 EPS of $1.59, better than consensus of $1.48.
Ford (F -7.47%) says it won't achieve 2014 profit goals, sees pre-tax profit of $6 billion, below ealier projection of $7 billion to $8 billion.
MARKET COMMENTS
Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 +0.34%) this morning are up +6.00 points (+0.30%). The S&P 500 index on Monday fell to a 6-week low and closed lower: S&P 500 -0.25%, Dow Jones -0.25%, Nasdaq -0.16%. Bearish factors included (1) increased geopolitical concerns due to civil unrest in Hong Kong after pro-democracy protesters clashed with police, and (2) the -1.0% m/m and -4.1% y/y decline in U.S. Aug pending home sales, weaker than expectations of -0.5% m/m and -1.4% y/y. Stocks rebounded upward from their worst levels after U.S. Aug personal spending rose +0.5%, better than expectations of +0.4%.
Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ14 -0.14%) this morning are down -8 ticks. Dec 10-year T-note futures prices on Monday closed higher. Bullish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected decline in Aug pending home sales, and (2) comments from Chicago Fed President Evans suggesting that he wants to maintain the Fed’s extraordinary monetary policy when he said the labor market recovery is “far from complete” and it’s still premature “to return to business as usual” with traditional monetary policy. Closes: TYZ4 +10.50, FVZ4 +4.50.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.69%) this morning is up +0.518 (+0.61%) at a new 4-1/4 year high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0111 (-0.88%) at a 2-year low and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.24 (+0.22%). The dollar index on Monday retreated from a fresh 4-year high and closed lower. EUR/USD recovered from a 1-3/4 year low and closed higher after German Sep CPI rose +0.8% y/y, higher than expectations of +0.7% y/y, which reduces pressure on the ECB to expand stimulus. Dollar losses were limited after USD/JPY rose to a 6-year high on the divergent monetary policies between the Fed and BOJ. Closes: Dollar index -0.049 (-0.06%), EUR/USD +0.0003 (+0.03%), USD/JPY +0.245 (+0.22%).
Nov WTI crude oil (CLX14 -0.12%) this morning is down -4 cents (-0.04%) and Nov gasoline (RBX14 +0.05%) is up +0.0030 (+0.12%). Nov crude and gasoline prices on Monday closed higher with Nov crude at a 3-week high: CLX4 +1.03 (+1.10%), RBXX4 +0.0261 (+1.05%). Bullish factors included (1) the weaker dollar, and (2) gasoline supply concerns as Irving Oil’s 146,000 bpd St. John, New Brunswick, refinery remains closed for unplanned repairs and as Bloomberg data shows refineries in Texas remain off line for maintenance or unplanned repairs at the highest rate in 3 years.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR09/30/2014
US0900 ETSep Milwaukee ISM expected +1.37 to 61.00, Aug -4.24 to 59.63.
0900 ETJul S&P/CaseShiller composite-20 home price index expected -0.10 m/m and +7.35% y/y, Jun -0.20% m/m and +8.07% y/y.
0945 ETSep Chicago PMI expected -2.3 to 62.0, Aug +11.7 to 64.3.
1000 ETSep consumer confidence (Conference Board) expected +0.1 to 92.5, Aug +2.1 to 92.4.
1045 ETFed Governor Jerome Powell speaks on a panel discussion of Government Debt Management at the Zero Lower Bound at the Brookings Institute.
1200 ETUSDA Q3 Quarterly Grain Stocks.
JPN0000 ETJapan Aug vehicle production, Jul -1.7% y/y.
0100 ETJapan Aug housing starts expected -14.2% y/y to 837,000, Jul -14.1% y/y to 839,000.
1950 ETJapan Q3 Tankan large manufacturing business conditions expected 10, Q2 was 12.
2135 ETRevised Japan Sep Markit/JMMA manufacturing PMI.
UK0200 ETUK Sep nationwide house prices expected +0.5% m/m and +10.4% y/y, Aug +0.8% m/m and +11.0% y/y.
0430 ETRevised UK Q2 GDP, previous +0.8% q/q and +3.2% y/y.
0430 ETUK Jul index of services expected +0.3% m/m and +1.0% 3-mo/3-mo, Jun +0.3% m/m and +1.0% 3-mo/3-mo.
0430 ETUK Sep Lloyds business barometer, Aug 47.
GER0200 ETGerman Aug retail sales expected +0.5% m/m and +0.3% y/y, Jul -1.1% m/m and +1.0% y/y.
0355 ETGerman Sep unemployment change expected -2,000, Aug +2,000. Sep unemployment rate expected unch at 6.7%.
EUR0500 ETEurozone Sep CPI estimate expected +0.3% y/y, Aug +0.3% y/y. Sep core CPI expected +0.9% y/y, Aug +0.9% y/y.
0500 ETEurozone Aug unemployment rate expected unch at 11.5%.
CHI2100 ETChina Sep manufacturing PMI expected -0.1 to 51.0, Aug -0.6 to 51.1.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR09/30/2014
Company NameTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Walgreen CoWAG US7:30Q4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.74
Moody's CorpMCO US8:00Investor DayY 2014
Walgreen CoWAG US8:30Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Intuit IncINTU US11:30Investor DayY 2014
Microsoft CorpMSFT US13:00Microsoft Analyst Update

Wednesday, August 6, 2014

Walgreens Looses 7.91 Billion Dollars after Obama Threats

Walgreens (WAG) was eligible to do a totally legal tax inversion after acquiring some foreign businesses.  After threats from President Obama and Senator Dick Durbin of Illinois the CEO of Walgreens, Greg Wasson was backed into a corner and announced the company would not complete the inversion process they were considering.  Immediately after the announcement the Company's stock tanked 14% causing a loss to stockholders of over $7.91 billion dollars.


LINK TO FULL STORY

Look at the chart:


Stockholders of this and other stocks should follow this story closely as the Obama White House continues it's crusade against stockholders.

Thursday, July 3, 2014

BARCHART MORNING CALL 7/3

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
September E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 +0.09%) this morning are up +0.09% and European stocks are up +0.63% on optimism that today's U.S. Jun payrolls report will show employers added more than 200,000 jobs for a fifth month. The markets will also eagerly interpret comments from ECB President Draghi following today's ECB monetary policy meeting. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan -0.14%, Hong Kong -0.08%, China +0.43%, Taiwan +0.44%, Australia +0.66%, Singapore +0.28%, South Korea -0.35%, India -0.07%. China's Shanghai Stock Index climbed to a 2-week high on signs the Chinese economy is growing after a gauge of manufacturing and service industry activity expanded at the fastest pace in 1-1/4 years. Commodity prices are mixed. Aug crude oil (CLQ14 -0.68%) is down -0.58% at a 3-week low on signs of increased supplies after Libya said it was opening the Es Sider and Ras Lanuf oil export facilities after reaching an agreement with rebels who had blockaded the ports for the past year. Aug gasoline (RBQ14 -0.29%) is down -0.36%. Aug gold (GCQ14 -0.83%) is down -0.66%. Sep copper (HGU14 -0.41%) is down -0.43%. Agriculture and livestock prices are higher with Aug live cattle prices up +1.43% at an all-time high. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.11%) is up +0.11%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.06% on speculation ECB President Draghi will jawbone EUR/USD lower when he speaks later today. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.11% at a 1-week high. Sep T-note prices (ZNU14 unch) are little changed, up +0.5 of a tick.
Eurozone May retail sales were unch m/m and +0.7% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.3% m/m and +1.8% y/y. Apr retail sales were revised down to -0.2% m/m and +1.8% y/y from the originally reported +0.4% m/m and +2.4% y/y.
The German Jun Markit services PMI was revised downward to 54.6 from the originally reported 54.8.
The UK Jun Markit/CIPS services PMI fell -0.9 to 57.7, a bigger drop than expectations of -0.3 to 58.3
The China Jun HSBC composite PMI rose +2.2 to 52.4, the fastest pace expansion in 1-1/4 years.
The China Jun non-manufacturing PMI fell -0.5 to 55.0.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
The market is expecting today’s June payroll report to show a +215,000 increase, close to the +217,000 increase seen in May. The market is expecting today’s June unemployment rate to remain unchanged from the 5-3/4 year low of 6.3% posted in April and May. Today’s weekly initial unemployment claims report is expected to show a small increase of +1,000 to 313,000 following last week’s -2,000 decline to 312,000. Meanwhile, continuing claims are expected to show a decline of -11,000 to 2.560 million, reversing most of last week’s +12,000 increase to 2.571 million. Today’s May U.S. trade deficit report is expected to narrow mildly to -$45.0 billion from -$47.2 billion in April. Today’s June ISM non-manufacturing index is expected to be unchanged at 56.3, stalling after May’s +1.1 point increase to 56.3. There are no Russell 1000 companis that report earnings today. There are no equity conferences this week.








OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Stifel raised its price target for Constellation Brands (STZ +2.34%) to $113 from $90 following the company's Q1 results and keeps a 'Buy' rating on the stock.
International Speedway (ISCA +1.02%) reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 50 cents, better than consensus of 49 cents.
Cree (CREE -0.08%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Perform' at Oppenheimer.
Comerica (CMA -0.42%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Citigroup.
Athlon Energy (ATHL -1.47%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at UBS.
Altai Capital lowered its stake in RealD (RLD -0.85%) to 5.7% from 9.8%.
Billionare activist investor Carl Icahn reported a 9.39% stake in Family Dollar (FDO +1.29%) .
East Rock Capital reported a 15% passive stake in Bay Bank (BYBK +1.57%) .
SYNNEX (SNX +0.18%) reported Q2 EPS of $1.52, well ahead of consensus of $1.36.
MARKET COMMENTS
Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 +0.09%) this morning are up +1.75 points (+0.09%). The S&P 500 index on Wednesday closed higher but remained below Tuesday’s record high. Signs of strength in the U.S. labor market boosted stocks after Jun ADP employment rose +281,000, stronger than expectations of +205,000 and the largest increase in 1-1/2 years. Gains were muted after (1) U.S. May factory orders fell -0.5%, a bigger decline than expectations of -0.3%, and (2) airline stocks tumbled when Delta Air Lines said that excess capacity in some international markets forced air fares down more than expected. Closes: S&P 500 +0.07%, Dow Jones +0.12%, Nasdaq +0.13%.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU14 unch) this morning are up +0.5 of a tick. Sep 10-year T-note futures prices on Wednesday fell to a 1-week low and closed lower on signs the economy is strengthening after the Jun ADP employment change rose by the most in 1-1/2 years. Losses in T-notes were contained after May factory orders fell more than expected. Closes: TYU4 -15.50, FVU4 -9.25.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.11%) this morning is up +0.089 (+0.11%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0008 (-0.06%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.11 (+0.11%) at a 1-week high. The dollar index on Wednesday closed higher on signs the U.S. economy may be gaining traction after Jun ADP employment rose by the most in 1-1/2 years. EUR/USD closed lower on speculation ECB President Draghi may attempt to jawbone EUR/USD lower following Thursday’s ECB meeting as EUR/USD is higher now than when the ECB expanded stimulus measures following last month’s policy meeting. Closes: Dollar index +0.141 (+0.18%), EUR/USD -0.0020 (-0.15%). USD/JPY +0.253 (+0.25%).
Aug WTI crude oil (CLQ14 -0.68%) this morning is down -61 cents (-0.58%) at a 3-week low. Aug gasoline (RBQ14 -0.29%) is down -0.0109 (-0.36%). Aug crude and gasoline prices on Wednesday fell to 2-week lows and closed lower on speculation Tropical Storm Arthur will curb fuel demand on the U.S. East coast over the Fourth of July holiday. Prices recovered from their worst levels on bullish factors that included (1) the -1.359 million bbl drop in crude supplies at Cushing, OK, the delivery point for WTI futures, to a 5-1/4 year low, and (2) the unexpected -1.24 million bbl drop in weekly EIA gasoline inventories vs expectations for a +550,000 bbl build. Closes: CLQ4 -0.86 (-0.82%) RBQ4 -0.0154 (-0.51%).
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR07/03/2014
US0830 ETWeekly initial unemployment claims expected +1,000 to 313,000, previous -2,000 to 312,000. Weekly continuing claims expected -11,000 to 2.560 million, previous +12,000 to 2.571 million.
0830 ETMay trade balance expected -$45.0 billion, Apr -$47.2 billion.
0830 ETJun non-farm payrolls expected +215,000, May +217,000. Jun private payrolls expected +213,000, May 216,000. Jun manufacturing payrolls expected +10,000, May +10,000. Jun unemployment rate expected unch at 6.3%.
0830 ETJun avg hourly earnings expected +0.2% m/m and +1.9% y/y, May +0.2% m/m and +2.1% y/y. Jun avg weekly hours expected unch at 34.5 hours.
0830 ETUSDA weekly Export Sales.
0945 ETJun Markit services PMI expected -0.2 to 61.0, May +3.1 to 61.2. Jun Markit composite PMI, May +2.7 to 61.1.
1000 ETJun ISM non-manufacturing index expected unch at 56.3, May +1.1 to 56.3.
1100 ETTreasury announces amount of 3-year T-notes (previous $28 billion), 10-year T-notes (previous $21 billion) and 30-year T-bonds (previous $13 billion) to be auctioned Jul 8-10.
1300 ETNYSE closes early before the July 4 holiday.
GER0355 ETRevised German Jun Markit/BME services PMI, previous 54.2.
EUR0400 ETRevised Eurozone Jun Markit composite PMI, previous 52.8.
0500 ETEurozone May retail sales expected +0.3% m/m and +1.8% y/y, Apr +0.4% m/m and +2.4% y/y.
0745 ETECB announces interest rate decision.
0830 ETECB President Mario Draghi holds press conference following ECB meeting.
UK0430 ETUK Jun Markit/CIPS services PMI expected -0.3 to 58.3, May 58.6.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR07/03/2014
Company NameTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Rite Aid CorpRAD USJune Sales and Revenue Call
Walgreen CoWAG USJune 2014 Sales and Revenue Release2014

Wednesday, June 25, 2014

BARCHART MORNING CALL 6/25

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
September E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 +0.04%) this morning are up +0.10% and European stocks are down -0.44%. European stocks were undercut on concern that the violence in Ukraine between government forces and rebels may escalate. Ukrainian President Poroshenko called for immediate talks with Russia, Germany and France after pro-Russian rebels shot down a government helicopter in violation of a cease-fire. Three people briefed on the plans said the U.S. is preparing additional sanctions aimed at specific areas of the Russian economy, including energy and technology. On the positive side in Europe, the German Jul Gfk consumer confidence rose more than expected to a 7-1/2 year high. Asian stocks closed lower: Japan -0.71%, Hong Kong -0.06%, China -0.53%, Taiwan -0.04%, Australia -0.57%, Singapore -0.02%, South Korea -0.61%, India -0.22%. China's Shanghai Stock Index closed lower after a gauge of Chinese consumer sentiment tumbled to the lowest in 11 months. Commodity prices are mixed. Aug crude oil (CLQ14 +0.37%) is up +0.51% and surged nearly +$1.50 a barrel in overnight trade after the WSJ reported that federal officials told two U.S. energy companies that they can legally export light crude after minimal processing. Oil prices fell back from their best levels, however, after a spokesman for the U.S. Department of Commerce said that "there has been no change in policy on crude oil exports." U.S. crude oil exports have been banned for the past 41 years and with U.S. crude production at a 27-1/2 year high, the oil industry is pressuring the Obama administration to end the oil export ban. Aug gasoline (RBQ14 -0.67%) is down -0.62%. Aug gold (GCQ14 -0.54%) is down -0.58%. July copper (HGN14 -0.21%) is up +0.02%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mixed, although July lean hog prices are up +0.52% and posted an all-time nearest-futures high of $1.312 a pound in overnight trade. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.01%) is up +0.01%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.02%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.04%. Sep T-note prices (ZNU14 +0.10%) are up +2.5 ticks.
The German Jul GfK consumer confidence rose +0.3 to 8.9, better than expectations of +0.1 to 8.6 and he highest in 7-1/2 years.
UK Jun CBI reported monthly sales unexpectedly fell -12 to 4, weaker than expectations of +7 to 23 and the lowest volume of sales in 7 months.
The China Jun Westpac-MNI consumer sentiment indicator dropped -8.6 to 112.6, the lowest in 11 months.
The Japan May PPI services rose +3.6% y/y, more than expectations of +3.3% y/y and the largest increase in 23-1/2 years.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today’s May durable goods orders report is expected to be unchanged overall and +0.3% ex-transportation following the April report of +0.6% and +0.3% ex-transportation. Today’s Q1 GDP report is expected to show a downward revision to -1.8% (q/q annualized) from the last estimate of -1.0%. The Treasury today will sell $35 billion of 5-year T-notes. The Treasury will then wrap up this week’s T-note package by selling $29 billion of 7-year T-notes on Thursday.
There are four of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: General Mills (consensus $0.72), Apollo Education Group (0.66), Monsanto (1.55), Bed Bath & Beyond (0.95). Equity conferences this week include: Global Hunter Securities LLC Energy Conference on Tue-Wed, Oppenheimer Consumer Conference on Tue-Wed, Mobile Pharma Biztech 2014 on Wed-Thu.








OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Whole Foods Markets (WFM -0.74%) was initiated with an 'Overweight' at Morgan Stanley with a price target of $50.
Harley-Davidson (HOG -0.99%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at KeyBanc.
Walgreens (WAG -1.70%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Jefferies with a price target of $87.
General Mills (GIS -1.05%) reported Q4 EPS of 67 cents, below consensus of 72 cents.
Valmont (VMI -0.27%) lost 5% in after-hours trading after it lowered guidance on fiscal 2014 EPS view to $9.35-$9.65 from a prior view of $10.00-$10.50, well below consensus of $10.37.
Lockheed Martin Space Systems (LMT -0.88%) has been awarded a $1.86 billion government contract modification to a previously awarded contract for Space-Based Infrared Systems Geosynchronous Earth Orbit 5 and 6 satellites, including performance incentives and options for acoustic testing and launch operations.
Affiliated Managers (AMG -0.89%) will replace Forest Labs (FRX +1.31%) in the S&P 500 as of the close on June 30.
Bristol-Myers (BMY +0.62%) rose 2% in after-hours trading after it said that a Phase 3 study of its drug nivolumab given to patients with advanced melanoma conducted by the independent Data Monitoring Committee showed evidence of superior overall survival rates.
Gabelli reported a 5.39% stake in AMC Networks (AMCX -0.07%) .
Hibbett Sports (HIBB +0.07%) was initiated with an 'Outperform' at BMO Capital with a price target of $64.
AK Steel (AKS -0.52%) said it will increase the base prices for for all of its stainless steel products, effective with shipments on July 6, by $40 per ton for automotive grades and by by $200 to $300 per ton for all non-automotive grades, depending on the product.
Team (TISI -1.81%) pre-announced that it expects to report adjusted Q4 EPS of 60 cents, below the company's previously issued adjusted earnings guidance for the current quarter of 65 cents-80 cents per share and below consensus of 71 cents.
MARKET COMMENTS
Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 +0.04%) this morning are up +2.00 points (+0.10%). The S&P 500 index on Tuesday posted a record high early but then fell back the rest of the day and closed lower on concern the violence in Iraq may escalate after the WSJ reported that Syrian warplanes bombed several areas in western Iraq. Bullish factors included (1) the +3.0 point increase in Jun consumer confidence to 85.2, stronger than expectations of +0.5 to 83.5 and the highest in 6-1/3 years, and (2) the +18.6% surge in May new home sales to 504,000, much higher than expectations of +1.4% to 439,000 and the highest in 6 years. Closes: S&P 500 -0.64%, Dow Jones -0.70%, Nasdaq -0.15%.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU14 +0.10%) this morning are up +2.5 ticks. Sep 10-year T-note futures prices on Tuesday closed higher on increased safe-haven demand after the S&P 500 fell back from a record high and closed lower. Bearish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected increase in May new home sales to the highest in 6 years, and (2) the increase in U.S. Jun consumer confidence to the best level in 6-1/3 years. Closes: TYU4 +9.50, FVU4 +4.25.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.01%) this morning is up +0.008 (+0.01%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0003 (-0.02%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.04 (-0.04%). The dollar index on Tuesday closed higher on signs of strength in the U.S. economy after (1) U.S. May new home sales rose to the highest in 6 years and (2) U.S. Jun consumer confidence climbed to the best level in 6-1/3 years. EUR/USD was little changed after the German Jun IFO business climate fell more-than-expected to the lowest level in 6 months. Closes: Dollar Index +0.055 (+0.07%), EUR/USD +0.0004 (+0.03%), USD/JPY +0.017 (+0.02%).
Aug WTI crude oil (CLQ14 +0.37%) this morning is up +54 cent (+0.51%). Aug gasoline (RBQ14 -0.67%) is down -0.0191 (-0.62%). Aug crude and gasoline prices on Tuesday settled mixed. Bullish factors included (1) concern that escalation of violence will lead to reduced oil exports from Iraq, OPEC’s second biggest producer, and (2) better-than-expected U.S. economic data on home sales and consumer confidence, which is positive for fuel demand. Crude oil fell into negative territory after a Saudi official said that Saudi Arabia will respond to any shortage in global oil markets with increased production. Closes: CLQ4 -0.14 (-0.13%) RBQ4 +0.0173 (+0.56%).
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR06/25/2014
US0700 ETWeekly MBA mortgage applications, previous -9.2% with purchase sub-index -4.7% and refi sub-index -12.7%.
0830 ETMay durable goods orders expected unch and +0.3% ex transportation, Apr +0.6% and +0.3% ex transportation. May non-defense capital goods orders ex-aircraft expected +0.5%, April -1.2%.
0830 ETQ1 GDP expected revised weaker to -1.8% from -1.0% (q/q annualized). Q1 personal consumption expected revised to +2.5% from +3.1%. Q1 GDP price index expected unrevised at +1.3%. Q1 core PCE expected unrevised at +1.2%.
0945 ETJune Markit U.S. Services PMI expected -0.1 to 58.0, May +3.1 to 58.1. June U.S. Composite PMI, May +2.8 to 58.4.
1000 ETTreasury Secretary Jacob Lew testifies to the Senate Banking Committee on the Financial Stability Oversight Council annual report.
1030 ETEIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
1300 ETTreasury auctions $35 billion 5-year T-notes.
GER0200 ETGerman July GfK consumer confidence expected +0.1 to 8.6, Jun 8.5.
UK0600 ETUK Jun CBI reported sales expected +7 to 23, May 16.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR06/25/2014
Company NameTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
General Mills IncGIS USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.719
Apollo Education Group IncAPOL USBef-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.661
Monsanto CoMON USBef-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20141.551
CIT Group IncCIT US8:00Investor DayY 2014
General Mills IncGIS US8:30Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Apollo Education Group IncAPOL US8:30Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Advance Auto Parts IncAAP US8:30Investor and Analyst MeetingY 2014
Hanesbrands IncHBI US8:30Acquisition of DBApparel of Sun Capital Partners, Inc by Hanesbrands, Inc Call
McKesson CorpMCK US9:00Investor DayY 2014
Waddell & Reed Financial IncWDR US9:00Investor DayY 2014
Monsanto CoMON US9:30Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
ARIAD Pharmaceuticals IncARIA US10:00Annual General MeetingY 2014
Equinix IncEQIX US10:00Investor DayY 2014
Schlumberger LtdSLB US11:00Investors Conference - Day 2Y 2014
Yahoo! IncYHOO US11:00Annual General MeetingY 2014
SLM CorpSLM US11:00Annual General MeetingY 2014
IHS IncIHS US12:00CABE Presents Energy Rivalry" with Kevin Birn"
Ingram Micro IncIM US12:25Investor DayY 2014
TransDigm Group IncTDG US12:45Analyst DayY 2014
Molson Coors Brewing CoTAP US13:30Analyst MeetingY 2014
Bed Bath & Beyond IncBBBY US16:15Q1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20150.945
Bed Bath & Beyond IncBBBY US17:00Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015
Public Service Enterprise Group IncPEG USInvestor MeetingY 2014
Questar CorpSTR USRoadshow - Day 3Y 2014
Raymond James Financial IncRJF USMay 2014 Sales and Revenue Release - Operating Data2014

Tuesday, June 24, 2014

BARCHART MORNING CALL 6/24

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
September E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 -0.18%) this morning are down -0.18% and European stocks are little changed, up +0.01%, after the German Jun IFO business conditions fell more than expected to a 6-month low, a sign that the European economy may be slowing. Losses in European stocks were limited on a possible short-term truce to the hostilities in Ukraine. The ruble strengthened against the dollar and the Russian Micex Stock Index rallied over 1% after pro-Russian forces in Ukraine called for a cease-fire, matching a truce made earlier by Ukraine President Poroshenko. Russian President Putin also asked the Russian house of parliament to cancel approval granted Mar 1 to use force in Ukraine. Asian stocks closed mostly higher: Japan +0.05%, Hong Kong +0.33%, China +0.50%, Taiwan +0.19%, Australia -0.38%, Singapore +0.14%, South Korea +1.16%, India +1.35%. Commodity prices are mixed. Aug crude oil (CLQ14 +0.13%) is up +0.07%. Aug gasoline (RBQ14 +0.14%) is up +0.07%. Aug gold (GCQ14 +0.52%) is up +0.52% at a 2-1/4 month high. July copper (HGN14 +0.03%) is up +0.13%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mixed with grains lower as U.S. crop conditions continue to be favorable, while livestock prices are higher after the USDA's Cold Storage report, released after the markets closed Monday, signaled lower beef and pork supplies. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.06%) is down -0.06%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.11%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.04%. Sep T-note prices (ZNU14 +0.14%) are up +6.5 ticks.
The German Jun IFO business climate fell -0.7 to 109.7, a bigger decline than expectations of -0.1 to 110.3 and the lowest in 6 months. The Jun IFO current assessment was unchanged at 114.8, weaker than expectations of +0.2 to 115.0. The Jun IFO expectations fell -1.4 to 104.8, a bigger decline than expectations of -0.2 to 106.0 and the lowest in 8 months.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today’s April FHFA home price index is expected to show a solid gain of +0.5% m/m, adding to the +0.7% increase seen in March. Meanwhile, today’s April Case-Shiller composite-20 home price index is expected to show an increase of +0.80% m/m, adding to March’s sharp increase of +1.24% m/m. Today’s May new home sales report is expected to show an increase of +1.6% to 440,000, adding to the +6.4% increase to 433,000 seen in April. Today’s June U.S. consumer confidence index from the Conference Board is expected to show an increase of +0.5 points to 83.5, adding to the +1.3 point increase to 83.0 seen in May. Today’s June Richmond Fed manufacturing index is expected to show a -1 point decline to 6 following the May report of unchanged at 7.
There are two of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: Walgreen (consensus $0.94), Carnival (0.02). Equity conferences this week include: Smart Grid World Conference 2014 on Tue, Global Hunter Securities LLC Energy Conference on Tue-Wed, Oppenheimer Consumer Conference on Tue-Wed, Mobile Pharma Biztech 2014 on Wed-Thu.








OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Walgreen (WAG -1.09%) reported Q3 EPS of 91 cents, below consensus of 94 cents.
IDEXX (IDXX +0.52%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Canaccord.
O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY -0.77%) was initiated with an 'Overweight' at Morgan Stanley with a price target of $175.
Dr Pepper Snapple (DPS -1.18%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Citigroup.
ITG (ITG -3.05%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Overweight' at JPMorgan Chase.
National Retail Properties (NNN -0.85%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at BofA/Merrill Lynch.
Wells Fargo downgraded IntercontinentalExchange (ICE +1.71%) to 'Market Perform' from 'Outperform.'
Aviva (AV -0.23%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at UBS.
Cray (CRAY -0.39%) announced that it has been awarded a $54 million contract to provide the Korea Meteorological Administration with supercomputers.
Dean Foods (DF -0.17%) fell over 7% in after-hours trading after Dow Jones reported that the company received subpoenas from federal authorities in an insider trading probe involving activist investor Carl Icahn.
SAB Capital Advisors reported a 9.4% passive stake in Famous Dave's (DAVE -2.80%) .
Priceline reported a 5.1% stake in OpenTable (OPEN +0.35%) .
Micron (MU -1.85%) reported Q3 EPS of 79 cents, well above consensus of 70 cents.
MARKET COMMENTS
Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 -0.18%) this morning are down -3.50 points (-0.18%). The S&P 500 index on Monday closed little changed as the ongoing crisis in Iraq prompted long liquidation pressure. Losses were muted on bullish factors that included (1) reduced Chinese economic concerns after the Jun China HSBC flash manufacturing PMI rose +1.4 to 50.8, stronger than expectations of +0.3 to 49.7 and the fastest rate of expansion in 7 months, and (2) the +4.9% increase in U.S. May existing home sales to 4.89 million, better than expectations of +1.9% to 4.74 million and the highest level in 7 months. Closes: S&P 500 +0.17%, Dow Jones +0.15%, Nasdaq +0.05%.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU14 +0.14%) this morning are up +6.5 ticks. Sep 10-year T-note futures prices on Monday closed little changed. A supportive factor for T-notes was carry-over support from a rally in German bunds after ECB President Draghi signaled that interest rates will probably remain low for at least another 2-1/2 years when he said “We have prolonged banks’ access to unlimited liquidity up to the end of 2016. That is a signal.” T-notes fell back from their best levels after May existing home sales rose more than expected to the highest level in 7 months. Closes: TYU4 -2.50, FVU4 -1.75.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.06%) this morning is down -0.047 (-0.06%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0015 (+0.11%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.04 (-0.04%). The dollar index on Monday closed lower on carry-over bearish sentiment toward the dollar after Fed Chair Yellen last Wednesday reiterated that the Fed remains committed to low interest rates for a “considerable time.” EUR/USD fell back after ECB President Draghi said that the recovery “is still weak and unevenly distributed across the Eurozone” and that broad-based asset purchases will be “the answer” if the inflation outlook weakens further. Closes: Dollar Index -0.100 (-0.12%), EUR/USD +0.0004 (+0.03%), USD/JPY -0.107 (-0.10%).
Aug WTI crude oil (CLQ14 +0.13%) this morning is up +7 cents (+0.07%). Aug gasoline (RBQ14 +0.14%) is up +0.0022 (+0.07%). Aug crude and gasoline prices on Monday closed lower. The main bearish factor for oil prices was reduced concerns that Iraqi militants will take over the oil-producing regions of Iraq after government forces regained Iraq’s border crossings with Jordan and Syria. Losses were limited on signs of economic strength in China, the world’s second-largest crude oil consumer, after a gauge of Chinese manufacturing activity expanded at the fastest pace in 7 months. Closes: CLQ4 -0.71 (-0.66%) RBQ4 -0.0152 (-0.49%).
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR06/24/2014
US0805 ETPhiladelphia Fed President Charles Plosser speaks to the Economic Club of New York on the economic outlook and monetary policy.
0900 ETApr FHFA house price index expected +0.5% m/m, Mar +0.7% m/m.
0900 ETApr S&P/CaseShiller composite-20 home price index expected +0.80% m/m and +11.50% y/y, Mar +1.24% m/m and +12.37% y/y.
1000 ETU.S. Jun consumer confidence (Conference Board) expected +0.5 to 83.5, May +1.3 to 83.0.
1000 ETJun Richmond Fed manufacturing index expected unch at 7, May unch at 7.
1000 ETMay new home sales expected +1.4% to 440,000, Apr +6.4% to 433,000.
1130 ETTreasury auctions $13 billion 2-year floating rate notes.
1300 ETTreasury auctions $30 billion 2-year T-notes.
GER0400 ETGerman Jun IFO business climate expected -0.1 to 110.3, May 110.4. Jun IFO current assessment expected +0.2 to 115.0, May 114.8. Jun IFO expectations expected -0.2 to 106.0, May 106.2.
JPN1950 ETJapan May corporate service price index expected +3.3% y/y, Apr +3.4% y/y.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR06/24/2014
Company NameTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Aon PLCAON US3:00Annual General MeetingY 2014
Walgreen CoWAG US7:30Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.935
Walgreen CoWAG US8:30Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
NetApp IncNTAP US8:30Analyst DayY 2014
Validus Holdings LtdVR US8:30Acquisition of Western World Insurance Group, Inc by Validus Holdings Ltd Call
Carnival CorpCCL US10:00Q2 2014 Earnings CallQ2 2014
Carnival CorpCCL USQ2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20140.023
Kennametal IncKMT USFinancial Community Meeting - Day 2Y 2014
Questar CorpSTR USRoadshow - Day 2Y 2014
AT&T IncT USAT&T Inc. - DirectTV Merger Testify Hearing
Nu Skin Enterprises IncNUS USAnnual General Meeting
GameStop CorpGME USAnnual General Meeting
DIRECTVDTV USAT&T Inc. - DirectTV Merger Testify Hearing