Wednesday, July 15th, 2015View Older Reports
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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
September E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 +0.11%) are up %+0.08 and European stocks are up +0.19%, both at 2-1/2 week highs ahead of testimony later this morning from Fed Chair Yellen to the House Financial Services Committee. The Greek Parliament votes today on a package of reforms needed in order to obtain bailout funds. Stronger-than-expected Chinese economic data on Q2 GDP and Jun industrial production gave global stocks a boost, although China's Shanghai Composite closed lower as sentiment towards Chinese stocks remains weak. 701 stocks on China's mainland exchanges remain halted by trading curbs and with another 1,240 stocks falling by the 10% daily limit, sellers were locked out of about 67% of the Chinese market. Asian stocks closed mostly higher: Japan +0.38%, Hong Kong -0.26%, China -3.03%, Taiwan +0.14%, Australia +1.05%, Singapore +0.67%, South Korea +0.41%, India +0.95%.Commodity prices are mixed. Aug crude oil (CLQ15 -0.68%) is down -0.68%. Aug gasoline (RBQ15 -0.75%) is down -0.42%. Metals prices are mixed. Aug gold (GCQ15 +0.04%) is up +0.02%. Sep copper (HGU15 +0.83%) is up +1.16%. Agricultural prices are weaker.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.03%) is up +0.01%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.08%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.12%.
Sep T-note prices (ZNU15 +0.05%) are up +1 tick.
The IMF released an analysis on Greece's debt situation which said that Greece's public debt has become highly unsustainable due to the easing of policies during the past year and the recent deterioration in the domestic macroeconomic and financial environment because of the closure of the banking system. The IMF estimates Greece's financing need through mid-2018 will be 85 billion euros and debt is expected to peak at close to 200% GDP in the next 2 years. The IMF said Greece's debt can only be made sustainable through debt relief measures that go far beyond what Europe has been willing to consider so far.
Speaking last night in Kansas City at an agricultural symposium, Kansas City Fed President George said that the economy is "back on track" in Q2 after a soft Q1 and that the Fed should begin to think about raising interest rates, though the U.S. will need accommodative policy for some time.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Fed Chair Janet Yellen's semi-annual testimony to the House Financial Services Committee, (2) weekly MBA mortgage applications (last week +4.6% with purchase sub-index +6.6% and refi sub-index +2.7%), (3) July Empire manufacturing index (expected +5.23 to 3.25 after June's -5.07 to -1.98), (4) June final-demand PPI (expected +0.2% m/m and -0.9% y/y after May's +0.5% m/m and -1.1% y/y) and June core PPI (expected +0.1% m/m and +0.7% y/y after May's +0.1% m/m and +0.6% y/y), (5) June industrial production (expected +0.2% after May's -0.2%), (6) the Fed's Beige Book report, (7) San Francisco Fed President John Williams' speech on the economic outlook to the Mesa Chamber of Commerce, (8) Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester's speech on the economic outlook at the Columbus Metropolitan Club, (9) San Francisco Fed President John Williams' speech on the economic outlook to the Mesa Chamber of Commerce.There are 8 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today: Bank of America (consensus $0.36), Intel (0.50), PNC Finanical (1.76), US Bancorp (0.80), Blackrock (4.79), Kinder Morgan (0.19), Netflix (0.29), Delta Airlines (1.21).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today include: Pronai Therapeutics (DNAI), Jupai Holdings (JP), Innovation Economy (MYIE), Farmland Partners (FPI), Cymabay Therapeutics (CBAY).
Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: SEMICON West CEO Investor Summit on Tue-Wed, 2015 International Stewardship Symposium on Wed, Delivering Alpha Conference on Wed.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Bank of America (BAC +0.65%) reported Q2 EPS of 45 cents, better than consensus of 36 cents.BlackRock (BLK -0.44%) reported Q2 EPS of $4.96, higher than consensus of $4.79.
PNC Financial Services Group (PNC +0.59%) reported Q2 EPS of $1.75, less than consensus of $1.76.
Delta Air Lines (DAL +0.67%) reported Q2 EPS of $1.27, above consensus of $1.21.
Eli Lilly (LLY -0.07%) was downgraded to 'Equal Weight' from 'Overweight' at Morgan Stanley.
Health Care REIT (HCN -0.48%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at SunTrust with a price target of $76.
Seagate (STX +2.87%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Craig-Hallum.
Avis Budget (CAR +0.76%) and Hertz (HTZ +0.71%) were both upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Deutsche Bank.
Vodafone (VOD +1.12%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Goldman Sachs.
PayPal (PYPLV +0.41%) will replace Noble Corp. (NE +0.34%) in the S&P 500 as of the close of trading on Friday, July 17.
Celgene (CELG +1.62%) climbed 5% and Receptos (RCPT +5.11%) jumped 10% in after-hours trading after Celgene said it will acquire Receptos for $232 per share in cash, or about $7.2 billion.
Gabelli reported a 5.43% stake in DealerTrack (TRAK -0.11%) .
Yum! Brands (YUM +0.97%) reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 69 cents, better than consensus of 63 cents, although it reported its Q2 China Division same-store-sales were down 10%.
CSX (CSX +0.53%) reported Q2 EPS of 56 cents, higher than consensus of 53 cents.
MARKET COMMENTS
September E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 +0.11%) this morning are up +1.75 points (+0.08%) at a 2-1/2 week high. Tuesday's closes: S&P 500 +0.44%, Dow Jones +0.42%, Nasdaq +0.65%. The S&P 500 index on Tuesday rallied to a 2-1/2 week high on (1) strength in chipmaker stocks after reports that China's Tsinghua Unigroup Ltd will offer $23 billion for Micron Technology, and (2) strength in energy producers after crude oil shook off early losses and moved higher. Stocks were undercut by the unexpected decline in U.S. Jun retail sales of -0.3% and -0.1% ex autos, weaker than expectations of +0.3% and +0.5% ex autos.Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU15 +0.05%) this morning are up +1 tick. Tuesday's closes: TYU5 +11.00, FVU5 +6.50. Sep T-notes on Tuesday settled higher on speculation the Fed will delay raising interest rates after U.S. Jun retail sales unexpectedly declined.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.03%) this morning is up +0.009 (+0.01%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0009 (+0.08%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.15 (+0.12%). Tuesday's closes: Dollar Index -0.215 (-0.22%), EUR/USD +0.00074 (+0.07%), USD/JPY -0.043 (-0.03%). The dollar index on Tuesday closed lower on (1) the unexpected decline in U.S. Jun retail sales, which may prompt the Fed to delay an interest rate increase, and (2) strength in EUR/USD after the German Jul ZEW survey of investor confidence fell less than expected.
Aug WTI crude oil (CLQ15 -0.68%) this morning is down -36 cents (-0.68%). Aug gasoline (RBQ15 -0.75%) is down -0.0081 (-0.42%). Tuesday's closes: CLQ5 +0.84 (+1.61%), RBQ5 -0.0155 (-0.80%). Aug crude and gasoline on Tuesday settled mixed with Aug gasoline at a 2-1/2 month low. Crude oil closed higher on dollar weakness and expectations that Wednesday's weekly EIA crude inventories report will fall -2.75 million bbl. Bearish factors included (1) the Iranian nuclear agreement, which will likely result in a surge of Iranian oil production in 2016 after sanctions are potentially dropped in December, and (2) the fall in Aug gasoline to a 2-1/2 month low on concern about U.S. consumer spending after Jun retail sales unexpectedly declined.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR07/15/2015
| US | 0700 ET | Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous +4.6% with purchase sub-index +6.6% and refi sub-index +2.7%. |
| 0830 ET | Jul Empire manufacturing survey of general business conditions expected +5.23 to 3.25, Jun -5.07 to -1.98. | |
| 0830 ET | Jun PPI final demand expected +0.2% m/m and -0.9% y/y, May +0.5% m/m and -1.1% y/y. Jun PPI ex food & energy expected +0.1% m/m and +0.7% y/y, May +0.1% m/m and +0.6% y/y. | |
| 0915 ET | Jun industrial production expected +0.2%, May -0.2%. Jun capacity utilization expected unch at 78.1%, May was -0.2 to 78.1%. | |
| 1000 ET | Fed Chair Janet Yellen delivers semi-annual testimony to the House Financial Services Committee. | |
| 1030 ET | EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report. | |
| 1200 ET | San Francisco Fed President John Williams speaks on the economic outlook to the Mesa Chamber of Commerce. | |
| 1225 ET | Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester speaks on the economic outlook at the Columbus Metropolitan Club. | |
| 1400 ET | Fed releases Beige Book. | |
| 1500 ET | San Francisco Fed President John Williams delivers a speech on the economic outlook to the Mesa Chamber of Commerce. | |
| UK | 0430 ET | UK Jun jobless claims change expected -9,000, May -6,500. Jun claimant count rate expected unch at 2.3%. |
| 0430 ET | UK May avg weekly earnings expected +3.3% 3-mon avg y/y, Apr +2.7% 3-mon avg y/y. May weekly earnings ex-bonus expected +3.0% 3-mon avg y/y, Apr +2.7% 3-mon avg y/y. | |
| 0430 ET | UK May ILO unemployment rate expected unch at +5.5 in the three months through May, previous +5.5% in the three months through Apr. | |
| JPN | n/a | BOJ announces interest rate decision and asset purchase target following 2-day policy meeting. |
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR07/15/2015
| Company | Ticker | Time | Event Description | Period | Estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PNC Financial Services Group Inc/The | PNC US | Bef-mkt | Q2 2015 Earnings Release | Q2 2015 | 1.756 |
| US Bancorp | USB US | Bef-mkt | Q2 2015 Earnings Release | Q2 2015 | 0.8 |
| BlackRock Inc | BLK US | Bef-mkt | Q2 2015 Earnings Release | Q2 2015 | 4.792 |
| Bank of America Corp | BAC US | 7:00 | Q2 2015 Earnings Release | Q2 2015 | 0.361 |
| CSX Corp | CSX US | 8:30 | Q2 2015 Earnings Call | Q2 2015 | |
| Bank of America Corp | BAC US | 8:30 | Q2 2015 Earnings Call | Q2 2015 | |
| BlackRock Inc | BLK US | 8:30 | Q2 2015 Earnings Call | Q2 2015 | |
| Yum! Brands Inc | YUM US | 9:15 | Q2 2015 Earnings Call | Q2 2015 | |
| US Bancorp | USB US | 9:30 | Q2 2015 Earnings Call | Q2 2015 | |
| Delta Air Lines Inc | DAL US | 10:00 | Q2 2015 Earnings Call | Q2 2015 | |
| PNC Financial Services Group Inc/The | PNC US | 10:30 | Q2 2015 Earnings Call | Q2 2015 | |
| Paychex Inc | PAYX US | 11:30 | Investor Day | Y 2015 | |
| Kinder Morgan Inc/DE | KMI US | 16:00 | Q2 2015 Earnings Release | Q2 2015 | 0.189 |
| Netflix Inc | NFLX US | 16:05 | Q2 2015 Earnings Release | Q2 2015 | 0.293 |
| Netflix Inc | NFLX US | 16:30 | Q2 2015 Earnings Call | Q2 2015 | |
| Kinder Morgan Inc/DE | KMI US | 16:30 | Q2 2015 Earnings Call | Q2 2015 | |
| Intel Corp | INTC US | 17:00 | Q2 2015 Earnings Call | Q2 2015 | |
| Intel Corp | INTC US | Aft-mkt | Q2 2015 Earnings Release | Q2 2015 | 0.499 |
| Iron Mountain Inc | IRM US | Roadshow - Baltimore - Day 2 | Y 2015 | ||
| Amazon.com Inc | AMZN US | Amazon's Prime Day" Sales Event" | |||
| Delta Air Lines Inc | DAL US | Q2 2015 Earnings Release | Q2 2015 | 1.213 |
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