BARCHART MORNING CALL 8/31

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Monday, August 31st, 2015View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

September E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 -0.83%) are down -0.82% and European stocks are down -0.52% as Chinese stocks fell on concern China's efforts to prop up its equity market will fail. Another negative for global stock and commodity markets was hawkish comments from Fed and ECB members at the Kansas City Fed's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Fed Vice Chair Fischer said there's "good reason" to believe that inflation is poised to move higher and ECB Vice President Constancio said that the link between real activity and inflation in the Eurozone has "strengthened." Losses in European stocks were contained after German Jul retail sales came in stronger than expected. Asian stocks closed mostly lower: Japan -1.28%, Hong Kong +0.27%, China -0.82%, Taiwan +1.94%, Australia -1.08%, Singapore -1.17%, South Korea +0.19%, India -0.41%. China's Shanghai Composite fell even after people familiar with the matter said China's securities regulator asked brokerages to increase stock buybacks and step up their support for stock prices by contributing 100 billion yuan ($15.7 billion) to China's market rescue fund. Japanese stock prices were also pressured after Japan Jul industrial production came in weaker than expected.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.14%) is down -0.13%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.21% after Eurozone Aug CPI rose at a faster pace than expected. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.36%.
Sep T-note prices (ZNU15 +0.09%) are up +3 ticks.
Comments from Fed Vice Chair Fischer Saturday at the Kansas City Fed's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, WY, suggest he favors an interest rate increase sooner rather than later when he said "given the apparent stability of inflation expectations, there is good reason to believe that inflation will move higher as the forces holding down inflation dissipate further."
ECB Vice President Constancio said at the Fed's symposium in Jackson Hole, WY, that "the link between inflation and real activity appears to have strengthened in the Eurozone recently."
The Eurozone Aug CPI estimate rose +0.2% y/y, higher than expectations of +0.1% y/y. Aug core CPI rose +1.0% y/y, higher than expectations of +0.9% y/y.
Japan Jul industrial production fell -0.6% m/m and rose +0.2% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.1% m/m and +0.8% y/y.
German Jul retail sales rose +1.4% m/m and +3.3% y/y, stronger than expectations of +1.1% m/m and +1.7% y/y.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Aug Milwaukee ISM (expected +2.88 to 50.00, Jul +0.57 to 47.12), (2) Aug Chicago PMI (expected -0.02 at 54.5, Jul +4.7 to 54.7), (3) Aug Dallas Fed manufacturing activity (expected +0.8 to -3.8, Jul +2.4 to -4.6).
None of the Russell 1000 companies report earnings today.
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today include: GC Aesthetics (GCAA), Ardelyx (ARDX), Accelerize (ACLZ), NovaBay Pharmaceuticals (NBY).
Equity conferences this week include: European Society of Cardiology Meeting on Mon-Wed, Longbow Research Industrial Manufacturing & Technology Investor Conference on Tue, Simmons Gleneagles Energy Conference on Tue-Wed, KeyBanc Capital Markets Basic Materials and Packaging Conference on Wed, Global Hunter Securities Industrials Conference on Thu.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

United Technologies (UTX -0.03%) was downgraded to 'Equal Weight' from 'Overweight' at Barclays.
Intel (INTC +2.53%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at Northland.
Twitter (TWTR +1.40%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at SunTrust.
Morgan Stanley (MS -0.73%) and Goldman Sachs (GS -0.77%) were both upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Evercore ISI.
J.C. Penney (JCP +5.55%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Deutsche Bank.
CNOOC (CEO -1.67%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at BofA/Merrill Lynch.
Southern Copper (SCCO +1.56%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Overweight' at JPMorgan Chase.
Stanley Black & Decker (SWK -0.23%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Neutral' at Macquarie.
Baidu (BIDU +0.05%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Jefferies.
Freeport McMoRan (FCX +3.04%) , which has fallen over 70% in the past year, looks oversold, according to Barron's.
Barron's said that With its shares down about 50% from all-time highs, Whole Foods Market (WFM -0.88%) looks cheap.
Kopp Investment Advisors reported a 16.1% stake in Superconductor Technologies (SCON unch) .
Apollo Principal Holdings reported a 5.7% stake in RCS Capital (RCAP unch) .
Integrated Core Strategies reported a 4.7% passive stake in Whiting Petroleum (WLL +5.07%) .

MARKET COMMENTS

Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 -0.83%) this morning are down -16.25 points (-0.82%). Friday's closes: S&P 500 +0.063%, Dow Jones -0.07%, Nasdaq +0.10%. The S&P 500 on Friday closed little changed. Stocks were undercut by the +0.3% increase in U.S. Jul personal spending, less than expectations of +0.4%, and by the unexpected -1.0 point decline in U.S. Aug University of Michigan consumer sentiment to 91.0, weaker than expectations of +0.1 to 93.0. Stocks found support on Friday's +4.8% rally in China's Shanghai Composite and strength in energy producers after crude oil rallied to a 2-week high.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU15 +0.09%) this morning are up +3 ticks. Friday's closes: TYU5 -5.00, FVU5 -7.75. Sep T-notes on Friday closed lower on the stable U.S. stock market and Friday's +4.8% rally in the Chinese Shanghai index. T-notes were also hurt by Cleveland Fed President Mester's comment that the U.S. economy "is solid and could support an increase in interest rates" despite recent market turmoil. T-notes found support on the decline in the U.S. Jul core PCE deflator, the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, to a 4-1/3 year low of +1.2% y/y.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.14%) this morning is down -0.128 (0.13%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0024 (+0.21%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.44 (-0.36%). Friday's closes: Dollar Index +0.496 (+0.52%), EUR/USD -0.00698 (-0.62%), USD/JPY +0.668 (+0.55%). The dollar index on Friday climbed to a 1-week high and closed higher on the increases in U.S. Jul personal spending and income that were close to expectations, and weakness in EUR/USD which fell to a 1-week low on speculation the ECB may expand stimulus after ECB Executive Board member Praet said that policy makers are ready to act if they perceive a material shift in inflation risks.
Oct crude oil (CLV15 -1.77%) this morning is down -89 cents (-1.97%) and Oct gasoline (RBV15 -2.08%) is down -0.0250 (-2.51%). Friday's closes: CLV5 +2.81 (+6.60%), RBV5 +0.0635 (+5.78%). Oct crude and gasoline prices on Friday closed higher with Oct crude at a 2-week high. Crude oil found support on the sharp +4.8% rally in the Shanghai index on Friday and on the close-to-expected increases in U.S. Jul personal spending and income, which were positive for economic growth and energy demand.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR08/31/2015

US	0900 ET	Aug Milwaukee ISM expected +2.88 to 50.00, Jul +0.57 to 47.12.
	0945 ET	Aug Chicago PMI expected -0.2 at 54.5, Jul +4.7 to 54.7.
	1030 ET	Aug Dallas Fed manufacturing activity expected +0.8 to -3.8, Jul +2.4 to -4.6.
	1100 ET	USDA weekly grain export inspections.
	1600 ET	USDA weekly crop progress.
JPN	0000 ET	Japan Jul vehicle production, Jun -5.3% y/y.
	0100 ET	Japan Jul housing starts expected +11.0% y/y to 938,000 annualized, Jun +16.3% y/y to 1.033 million annualized.
	0100 ET	Japan Jul construction orders, Jun +15.4% y/y.
	1950 ET	Japan Q2 capital spending expected +8.9% y/y, Q1 +7.3% y/y. Q2 capital spending ex-software expected +11.3% y/y, Q1 +8.1% y/y.
	2135 ET	Revised Japan Aug Nikkei manufacturing PMI.
GER	0200 ET	German Jul retail sales expected +1.3% m/m and +1.7% y/y, Jun -2.3% m/m and +5.1% y/y.
EUR	0500 ET	Eurozone Aug CPI estimate expected +0.1% y/y, Jul +0.2% y/y. Aug core CPI expected +0.9% y/y, Jul +1.0% y/y.
CHI	2100 ET	China Aug manufacturing PMI expected -0.3 to 49.7, Jul 50.0. Aug non-manufacturing PMI, Jul 53.9.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR08/31/2015

Company	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
TCF Financial Corp	TCB US	8:30	Investor Day
Multiple Companies	NEE US	9:00	Business Update Call
VMware Inc	VMW US	15:00	Analyst Day
Genesee & Wyoming Inc	GWR US		Investor Meeting

BARCHART MORNING CALL 7/7

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Monday, July 7th, 2014View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

September E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 -0.05%) this morning are down -0.16% and European stocks are down -0.32% after German May industrial production unexpectedly declined for a third straight month. Also, IMF Managing Director Lagarde hinted that it may cut its global growth forecasts, saying investment is still weak and that risks remain in the U.S. even as its recovery accelerates. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan -0.37%, Hong Kong -0.02%, China -0.11%, Taiwan +0.11%, Australia -0.11%, Singapore +0.59%, South Korea -0.26%, India +0.53%. Commodity prices are mostly lower. Aug crude oil (CLQ14 +0.17%) is down -0.20%. Aug gasoline (RBQ14 -0.18%) is down -0.49%. Aug gold (GCQ14 -0.50%) is down -0.41%. Sep copper (HGU14 -0.58%) is down -0.79%. Agriculture prices are unch. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.02%) is up +0.02% at a 1-week high after Goldman Sachs revised its forecast for the Fed to start raising interest rates in Q3 of 2015 rather than Q1 of 2016, saying the economy is "accelerating to an above-trend pace.". EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.01% at a 2-week low after German May industrial production unexpectedly plunged by the most in 2 years. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.12%. Sep T-note prices (ZNU14 +0.01%) are up +0.5 of a tick.
German May industrial production unexpectedly fell -1.3% m/m, weaker than expectations of unch m/m, the third straight monthly decline and the sharpest drop in 2 years. On an annual basis, May industrial production rose +1.3% y/y, weaker than expectations of +3.6% y/y.
Eurozone Jul Sentix investor confidence unexpectedly rose +1.6 to 10.1, better than expectations of -0.7 to 7.8.
UK Jun Lloyds employment confidence fell -3 points to 1.
The Japan May leading index CI fell -0.8 to 105.7, a bigger decline than expectations of -0.6 to 105.9 and the lowest in 15 months. The May coincident index was unch at 111.1, higher than expectations of -0.1 to 111.0.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

There are no U.S. economic reports today. None of the Russell 1000 companies report earnings today. Equity conferences this week include: MicroStrategy Global User Conference on Tue, SEMICON West Conference on Tue, and Paris Europlace Financial Forum: Europe 2020 a Driver to Global Growth? on Tue-Wed.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY +2.68%) was downgraded to 'Underperform' from 'Neutral' at BofA/Merrill.
Williams-Sonoma (WSM +0.51%) and Ultratech (UTEK -0.61%) were both upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at BofA/Merrill.
Cinemark (CNK +0.45%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at B. Riley.
Southern Copper (SCCO +3.51%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at BMO Capital.
Charles Schwab (SCHW +2.55%) was upgraded to 'Market Perform' from 'Underperform' at Raymond James.
Applied Materials (AMAT +0.09%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Neutral' at JPMorgan.
Devon Energy (DVN +0.80%) and Western Refining (WNR +2.58%) were both upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Citigroup.
Peabody ({=BTU and Coeur Mining ({=CDE were both downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Deutsche Bank.
Deutsche Boerse (DBOEY -0.52%) was downgraded to 'Underperform' from 'Neutral' at Credit Suisse.
DT Advanced Technologies (GTAT -1.11%) slid over 6% in pre-market trading after Canaccord Genuity Group downgraded the stock to 'Hold' from 'Buy.'
Ebay (EBAY +0.77%) rose nearly 1% in pre-market trading after it said it extended a collect-in-store alliance with the UK's Argos chain to 650 outlets from 150.
King Digital Entertainment (KING -2.93%) rose nearly 3% in pre-market trading after Piper Jaffray upgraded the stock to 'Overweight' from 'Neutral.'
Archer-Daniels Midland (ADM +0.99%) rose 0.5% in pre-market trading after it said it will acquire Wild Flowers GmbH for $3 billion.
Sandell reported an 8.4% stake in Bob Evans (BOBE +1.17%) .
Gabelli reported an 8.45% stake in PLX Technology (PLXT unch) .

MARKET COMMENTS

Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 -0.05%) this morning are down -3.25 points (-0.16%). The S&P 500 index on Thursday posted a fresh record high and closed higher. The main bullish factor was the U.S. Jun payrolls report that showed (1) a +288,000 increase in Jun non-farm payrolls, stronger than expectations of +215,000, and (2) an unexpected -0.2 point drop in the Jun unemployment rate to 6.1%, indicating a stronger labor market than expectations of unchanged at 6.3% and the lowest in nearly 6 years. Closes: S&P 500 +0.55%, Dow Jones +0.54%, Nasdaq +0.61%.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU14 +0.01%) this morning are up +0.5 of a tick. Sep 10-year T-note futures prices on Thursday slipped to a 2-week low and closed lower. Bearish factors included (1) the stronger-than-expected Jun payrolls report, and (2) reduced safe-haven demand for T-notes after the S&P 500 rallied to a new record high. Closes: TYU4 -5.50, FVU4 -5.00.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.02%) this morning is up +0.014 (+0.02%) at a 1-week high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0001 (+0.01%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.12 (-0.12%). The dollar index on Thursday closed higher after stronger-than-expected U.S. Jun non-farm payrolls boosted speculation the Fed will bring forward the timing of expected interest rate increases. EUR/USD fell back after ECB President Draghi kept open the possibility of quantitative easing by the ECB when he said “we are strongly determined to safeguard the firm anchoring of inflation expectations over the medium term” and stand ready to embark on broad-based asset purchases if necessary. Closes: Dollar index +0.256 (+0.32%), EUR/USD -0.0048 (-0.35%). USD/JPY +0.408 (+0.40%).
Aug WTI crude oil (CLQ14 +0.17%) this morning is down -21 cents (-0.20%). Aug gasoline (RBQ14 -0.18%) is down -0.0148 (-0.49%). Aug crude and gasoline prices on Thursday tumbled to 3-week lows and closed lower. Negative factors included (1) signs of increased supplies after Libya said it was opening the Es Sider and Ras Lanuf oil export facilities after it reached an agreement with rebels who have blockaded the ports for the past year, and (2) speculation Hurricane Arthur will curb fuel demand on the U.S. East coast over the Fourth of July holiday. Closes: CLQ4 -0.42 (-0.41%) RBQ4 -0.0060 (-0.20%).

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR07/07/2014

US	1100 ET	USDA weekly grain export inspections.
	1600 ET	USDA weekly crop progress.
JPN	0100 ET	Japan May leading index CI expected -0.5 to 106.0, Apr 106.5. May coincident index expected -0.1 to 111.0, Apr 111.1.
GER	0200 ET	German May industrial production expected +0.2% m/m and +3.5% y/y, Apr +0.2% m/m and +1.8% y/y.
EUR	0430 ET	Eurozone Jul Sentix investor confidence, Jun 8.5.
UK	0430 ET	UK Jun Lloyds employment confidence, May 4.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR07/07/2014

Company Name	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Bed Bath & Beyond Inc	BBBY US	9:00	Annual General Meeting	Y 2014
Applied Materials Inc	AMAT US	16:30	Analyst Briefing	Y 2014
Brookdale Senior Living Inc	BKD US		Annual General Meeting

BARCHART MORNING CALL 12/18

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Wednesday, December 18th, 2013View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

March E-mini S&Ps (ESH14 +0.20%) this morning are up +0.23% ahead of the outcome of the FOMC meeting later today and European stocks are up +0.96% after the German Dec IFO business climate rose to the highest in 20-months and after the UK Oct ILO unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to a 4-1/2 year low. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +2.02%, Hong Kong +0.32%, China +0.04%, Taiwan -0.05%, Australia -0.14%, Singapore -0.19%, South Korea +0.49%, India +1.20%. China's Shanghai stock Index closed little changed and erased most its gains on concern the government will implement additional measures to curb growth in the property market after China Nov home prices rose in 69 of 70 cities tracked by the government. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index climbed to a 1-week high after Japan Nov exports rose more than expected and India's Sensex Stock Index also rose to a 1-week high after the RBI unexpectedly kept interest rates unchanged. Commodity prices are mixed. Jan crude oil (CLF14 +0.02%) is up +0.07%. Jan gasoline (RBF14 +0.64%) is up +0.73%. Feb gold (GCG14 +0.13%) is up +0.20%. March copper (HGH14 -0.50%) is down -0.47%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.07%) is up +0.05%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.14%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.28%. March T-note prices (ZNH14 -0.04%) are down -0.5 of a tick.

The German Dec IFO business climate rose +0.2 from Nov to 109.5, right on expectations and the highest in 20-months. The Dec IFO current assessment unexpectedly fell -0.6 to 111.6, weaker than expectations of a +0.3 increase to 112.5, and the Dec IFO expectations rose +1.0 point from a revised 106.4 in Nov to 107.4, better than expectations of an increase to 106.5 and the highest in 2-3/4 years.

UK Dec CBI reported sales surged to 34 from 1 in Nov, much better than expectations of an increase to 10 and matched September's increase as the most in 1-1/2 years.

UK Nov jobless claims fell -36,700, more than expectations for a -35,000 decline. The Nov claimant count rate fell to 3.8%, right on expectations. The Oct ILO unemployment rate for 3-months dropped -0.2 to 7.4%, better than expectations of unch at 7.6% and the lowest in 4-1/2 years.

Eurozone Oct construction output fell -1.2% m/m and -2.4% y/y, the eighth consecutive month output has fallen on an annual basis.

The Japan Nov trade balance widened to a -1.293 trillion yen deficit, a little less than expectations of a -1.351 trillion yen deficit, but still the biggest deficit in 10-months. Nov exports rose +18.4% y/y, better than expectations of +18.0% y/y, while Nov imports climbed +21.1% y/y, less than expectations of +21.4% y/y.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

The 2-day FOMC meeting concludes today with the chance that the FOMC may announce the beginning of QE3 tapering. Today’s Nov housing starts report is expected to show a sharp +8.0% increase to 954,000 from the August level, which was the last level that has been reported. The Sep and Oct housing starts reports will also be released today. The Treasury today will sell $35 billion of 5-year T-notes. The Treasury will then conclude this week’s $112 billion coupon package on Thursday by selling $29 billion of 7-year T-notes and $16 billion of 5-year TIPS. There are 5 of the Russell 1000 companies that release earnings today: General Mills (consensus $0.87), Lennar (0.62), FedEx (1.64), Oracle (0.67), Paycheck (0.42). There are no equity conferences during the remainder of the week.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Intel (INTC +0.86%) was added to the short-term 'Buy' list at Deutsche Bank.

The WSJ reported that British Petroleum (BP -1.11%) will write off $1.08 billion in expenses relating to a failed Brazilian well which found no commercial quantities of oil or gas.

Avon Products (AVP -0.35%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at BofA/Merrill.

Southern Copper (SCCO +0.04%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Citigroup.

Lennar (LEN +0.57%) reported Q4 EPS of 75 cents, well above consensus of 62 cents.

Johnson Controls (JCI +0.73%) lowered guidance on fiscal 2014 EPS to $3.15-$3.30, below consensus of $3.31.

General Mills (GIS -0.66%) reported Q2 EPS of 83 cents, weaker than consensus of 87 cents.

FedEx (FDX -0.54%) reported Q2 EPS of $1.57, below consensus of $1.64.

Deutsche Bank downgraded the Semiconductor sector to 'Neutral' from 'Overweight' saying valuations in the sector are already pricing in a strong 2014 recovery.

Reuters reports that Citigroup (C -0.41%) and Bank of America's (BAC -0.39%) Merrill Lynch unit will face civil fraud charges from the U.S. Department of Justice over the sale of mortgage securities ahead of the financial crisis.

AllThingsD reported that Facebook (FB +1.95%) acquired SportStream. Terms of the deal were not disclosed.

Raytheon (RTN +0.18%) was awarded a$172.68 mllion contract modification to manufacture and deliver the AN/TPY-2 Radar #12 with associated spares.

Jabil Circuit (JBL +0.20%) slumped over 13% in after-hours trading after it said it sees Q2 EPS of 5 cents-15 cents, well below consensus of 52 cents, and said it sees Q2 revenue of $3.5 billion-$3.7 billion, below consensus of $4.28 billion.

VeriFone (PAY +0.08%) slipped over 4% in after-hours trading after it lowered guidance on fiscal 2014 EPS to $1.35-$1.40, well below consensus of $1.56.

MARKET COMMENTS

Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH14 +0.20%) this morning are up +4.00 points (+0.23%). The S&P 500 index on Tuesday closed lower. The Dec NAHB housing market index rose +4 to 58, better than expectations of +1 to 55 and matched the 8-year high from Aug, which bolstered expectations for Fed QE3 tapering. The Nov CPI of +1.2% y/y was slightly weaker than expectations of +1.3% y/y, which could delay a Fed tapering decision. Closes: S&P 500-0.31%, Dow Jones -0.06%, Nasdaq 100 -0.19%.

Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH14 -0.04%) this morning are down -0.5 of a tick. Mar T-notes on Tuesday closed higher on bullish factors that included (1) weak equities, and (2) benign inflation data after Nov CPI rose less than expected. Gains were muted ahead of the conclusion of the FOMC meeting on Tuesday and after the Dec NAHB housing market index rose more than expected to match an 8-year high. Closes: TYH4 +10.00, FVH4 +6.00.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.07%) this morning is up +0.042 (+0.05%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0019 (-0.14%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.29 (+0.28%). The dollar index on Tuesday closed little changed ahead of Wednesday’s conclusion of the 2-day FOMC meeting. A bullish factor for the dollar was the U.S. Q3 account balance that shrank more-than-expected to a 4-year low of -$94.8 billion. Weakness in EUR/USD was limited after the German Dec ZEW survey of economic expectations rose more-than-expected to a 7-1/2 year high. Closes: Dollar index -0.013 (-0.02%), EUR/USD +0.00073 (+0.05%), USD/JPY -0.356 (-0.35%).

Jan WTI crude oil (CLF14 +0.02%) this morning is up +7 cents (+0.07%) and Jan gasoline (RBF14 +0.64%) is up +0.0193 (+0.73%). Jan crude oil and gasoline prices on Tuesday settled mixed. Crude prices were pressured by concern the Fed is close to tapering stimulus, while the jump in the German Dec ZEW survey of economic expectations to a 7-1/2 year high buoyed crude prices along with expectations for a -3.0 million bbl draw in Wednesday’s EIA weekly crude inventory report. Closes: CLF4 -0.26 (-0.27%), RBF4 +0.0035 (+0.13%).

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR12/18/2013

US	0700 ET	Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous +1.0% with purchase sub-index +0.9% and refi sub-index +2.1%.
	0830 ET	Nov housing starts expected 954,000, +8.0% from Augs level of 883,000 (Sep and Oct housing starts have yet to be released). Nov building permits expected -4.7% to 990,000, Oct +6.7% to 1.039 million.
	1030 ET	EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
	1300 ET	Treasury auctions $35 billion 5-year T-notes.
	1400 ET	FOMC announces interest rate decision and pace of asset purchases.
	1400 ET	Fed releases summary of economic projections.
	1430 ET	Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke holds press conference following FOMC meeting.
GER	0400 ET	German Dec IFO business climate expected +0.2 to 109.5, Nov 109.3. Dec IFO current assessment expected +0.3 to 112.5, Nov 112.2. Dec IFO expectations expected +0.2 to 106.5, Nov 106.3.
UK	0430 ET	Minutes of the Dec 4-5 BOE meeting.
	0430 ET	UK Nov jobless claims change expected -35,000, Oct -41,700. Nov claimant count rate expected -0.1 to 3.8%, Oct 3.9%.
	0430 ET	UK Oct ILO unemployment rate expected unch at 7.6% 3-months, Sep 7.6% 3-months. Oct avg weekly earnings expected +0.8% 3-mon avg year-over-year, Sep +0.7% 3-mon avg year-over-year. Oct avg weekly earnings ex-bonus expected +0.8% 3-mon avg year-over-year, Sep +0.8% 3-mon avg year-over-year.
	0600 ET	UK Dec CBI reported sales expected +9 to 10, Nov 1.
EUR	0500 ET	Eurozone Oct construction output, Sep -1.3% m/m and -0.2% y/y.
JPN	2330 ET	Japan Oct all-industry activity index expected -0.3%, Sep +0.4% m/m.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR12/18/2013

Company Name	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
General Mills Inc	GIS US	Bef-mkt	Q2 2014 Earnings Release	Q2 2014	0.874
Lennar Corp	LEN US	6:00	Q4 2013 Earnings Release	Q4 2013	0.624
FedEx Corp	FDX US	7:30	Q2 2014 Earnings Release	Q2 2014	1.642
Johnson Controls Inc	JCI US	8:00	Analyst Meeting	Y 2013
CVS Caremark Corp	CVS US	8:00	Analyst Day	Y 2013
FedEx Corp	FDX US	8:30	Q2 2014 Earnings Call	Q2 2014
General Mills Inc	GIS US	8:30	Q2 2014 Earnings Call	Q2 2014
AutoZone Inc	AZO US	9:00	Annual General Meeting	Y 2013
Ford Motor Co	F US	9:00	Business Update Call
Lennox International Inc	LII US	9:00	Investor Meeting	Y 2013
Lennar Corp	LEN US	11:00	Q4 2013 Earnings Call	Q4 2013
Raymond James Financial Inc	RJF US		November 2013 Sales and Revenue Release - Operating Data Results	2013
Theravance Inc	THRX US		PDUFA, Anoro Ellipta (LAMA/LABA), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
Hudson City Bancorp Inc	HCBK US		Annual General Meeting	Y 2013

Barchart Morning Call 7/31

Barchart Morning Call

BC - Tue Jul 31, 7:00AM CDT

Overnight Developments

• Sep E-mini S&Ps this morning are up by +0.18% and European stocks are also higher with the Euro Stoxx 50 up +0.28% at a 3-month high on speculation central banks will do more to support the global economy. The Fed begins a 2-day policy meeting today in Washington. EUR/USD is +% higher and the dollar index is lower. Commodity prices are mostly higher with crude oil up +0.19% and copper up +1.02%. Copper rose after China increased its railway spending for the second time in a month. Agricultural prices are stronger after Monday afternoon's weekly USDA crop conditions report showed the U.S. corn crop deteriorated for the eighth straight week. Dec corn is up +0.74% at a contract high and Nov soybeans are up +1.13% at a 1-week high. Sep T-notes are up +2 ticks.
• Asian stocks today closed mostly higher: Japan +0.69%, Hong Kong +1.08%, China -0.12%, Australia +0.55%, South Korea +2.25%, India +0.54%. China's Shanghai Stock Index fell to a 3-1/3 year low on concern China's slowing economy will hurt earnings growth.
• German July unemployment rose +7,000, right on expectations, while the German July unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.8%, also right on expectations.
• German Jun retail sales were mixed with the monthly figure unexpectedly falling -0.1% m/m, weaker than expectations of a +0.5% m/m increase, while year-over-year sales climbed +2.9% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.4% y/y.
• The Euro-Zone July CPI estimate rose +2.4% y/y, right on expectations.
• The Euro-Zone Jun unemployment rate rose +0.1 to 11.2%, the highest since data began in 1995, but right on expectations.
• Japan's Jun jobless rate unexpectedly fell -0.1 to 4.3%, a 9-month low and better than expectations of no change at 4.4%.
• Japan Jun overall household spending climbed +1.6% y/y, weaker than expectations of +2.9% y/y.
• For a second time this month, China's Ministry of Railways said it will increase spending on China's railroads and bridges this year after it announced plans to spend 470 billion yuan ($74 billion) on projects this year, 4.8% higher than a July 3 projection.
  Market Comments
  • Sep E-mini S&Ps this morning are up 2.50 points (+0.18%). The U.S. stock market on Monday closed lower: S&P 500 -0.05%, Dow Jones -0.02%, Nasdaq 100 -0.19%. The S&P 500 Index fell back from a 2-3/4 month high and finished lower on profit-taking as investors lightened up on some of their long positions ahead of this week's data on U.S. manufacturing and jobs along with the results of the FOMC and ECB policy meetings. Stocks remain buffeted though on hopes the FOMC at its 2-day meeting Tuesday and Wednesday might implement additional easing moves along with the possibility the ECB may ramp up its buying of European sovereign debt to contain the recent surge in government yields.
  • Sep 10-year T-notes this morning are up +2 ticks. Sep 10-year T-note prices on Monday rebounded from last Friday's sharp losses and closed higher: TYU2 +14, FVU2 +7.2. T-note prices rallied Monday on increased safe-haven demand as stocks faltered along with speculation the ECB may not do enough to stem the European sovereign-debt crisis.
  • The dollar index this morning is lower with EUR/USD +0.18% and USD/JPY +0.03%. The dollar index on Monday closed higher: Dollar index +0.085 (+0.10%), EUR/USD -0.00014 (-0.01%), USD/JPY -0.07 (-0.01%). EUR/USD weakened on speculation the ECB will expand its balance sheet to stem the rise of European government bond yields, which is negative for the euro. Weaker stock prices also prompted a safe-haven bid for dollar assets although a fall in Spain's 10-year bond yield to a 2-week low limited declines in the euro.
  • Sep WTI crude oil prices this morning are higher by +17 cents a barrel (+0.19%). Sep gasoline is down -0.0088 (-0.31%). Crude oil and gasoline prices Monday finished mixed as a strong dollar and weak stocks undercut crude but gasoline settled higher on supply concerns after Enbridge Energy Partners shut down an oil pipeline from Superior, Wisconsin into Chicago and refinery outages were reported in the Chicago area at Citgo Petroleum's Lemont, Illinois plant and at BP's Whiting, Indiana refinery: CLU2 -0.35 (-0.39%), RBU2 +0.0217 (+0.78%).
  • For the complete subscription version of this daily report (plus a 13-page big-picture weekly report), along with the earliest possible delivery in the morning, please visit http://www.barchart.com/register/crbfms_usmc.php
    Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (ranked by market cap): PFE-Pfizer (Consensus $0.54), SCCO-Southern Copper (0.62), TYC-Tyco International Ltd. (0.93), HCP-HCP Inc. (0.47), ECL-Ecolab (0.72), DISCA-Discovery Communications (0.70), ADM-Archer-Daniels Midland (0.61), COH-Coach (0.85), CMI-Cummins (2.38), PEG-Public Service Enterprise Group (0.45), ALL-Allstate (0.52), MPC-Marathon Petroleum (2.51), EIX-Edison International (0.32), VLO-Valero Energy (1.43), ETR-Entergy (1.62), AET-Aetna (1.25).
    Global Financial Calendar
    

    Tuesday 7/31/12
    United States
    0745 ET	ICSC (Int'l Council of Shopping Centers) weekly retailer sales.
    0830 ET	Q2 employment cost index expected +0.5%, Q1 +0.4%.
    0830 ET	June personal income expected +0.4%, May +0.2% m/m. June personal spending expected +0.1% m/m, May unch m/m.
    0830 ET	June PCE deflator expected unch m/m and +1.7% y/y, May -0.2% m/m and +1.5% y/y. June PCE core deflator expected +0.2% m/m and +1.8% y/y, May +0.1% m/m and +1.8% y/y.
    0855 ET	Redbook weekly retailer sales.
    0900 ET	May S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city composite home price index expected +0.4% m/m and -1.5% y/y, Apr +0.67% m/m and -1.9% y/y.
    0945 ET	July Chicago purchasing managers index expected -0.4 to 52.5, June +0.2 to 52.9.
    1000 ET	July U.S. consumer confidence (Conference Board) expected -0.6 to 61.4, June -2.4 to 62.0.
    1130 ET	Weekly 4-week T-bill auction.
    1630 ET	API weekly U.S. oil statistics.
    Japan
    0100 ET	Japan June construction orders, May -0.9% y/y. June annualized housing starts expected 916,00, May 903,000. June housing starts expected +9.4% y/y, May +9.3% y/y.
    Germany
    0200 ET	German June retail sales expected +0.5% m/m and +0.4% y/y, May -0.3% m/m and -1.1% y/y.
    0355 ET	German July unemployment rate expected unch at 6.8%, June 6.8%. July unemployment change expected +7,000, June +7,000.
    Euro-Zone
    0500 ET	Eurozone July CPI estimate expected +2.4% y/y, June +2.4% y/y.
    0500 ET	Eurozone June unemployment rate expected 11.2%, May 11.1%.
    United Kingdom
    1901 ET	UK July BRC Shop Price index, June +1.1% y/y.
    CHI
    2100 ET	China July manufacturing PMI (China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing) expected +0.2 to 50.4, June -0.2 to 50.2.
    2230 ET	China July HSBC manufacturing PMI expected near flash report of +1.3 to 49.5, June -0.2 to 48.2.

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Barchart Morning Call 7/30

Barchart Morning Call

BC - Mon Jul 30, 7:00AM CDT

Overnight Developments

• Sep E-mini S&Ps this morning are down by -0.24%, led by a fall in bank stocks after Deutsche Bank cut its recommendation on JPMorgan Chase to hold from buy. European stocks however, are higher with the Euro Stoxx 50 up +0.96% at a 2-3/4 month high on speculation the ECB will take action to ease Europe's debt crisis. EUR/USD is -0.42% lower and the dollar index is higher. Commodity prices are mostly higher with crude oil up +0.02% and copper down -0.02%. Agriculture prices surged with Dec corn up +2.71% at a record high and Nov soybeans up +2.58% as the drought persists in the U.S. Midwest. Sep T-notes are down -1.5 ticks.
• Asian stocks today closed mostly higher: Japan +0.80%, Hong Kong +1.61%, China -0.57%, Australia +0.85%, South Korea +0.97%, India +1.81%. China's Shanghai Stock Index fell to a 3-1/3 year low on concern China's slowing economy will crimp earnings growth.
• Spain's 10-year government bond yield fell 15 bp to a 2-week low of 6.59% and the cost of the Markit iTraxx SovX Western European Index of credit-default swaps to insure the sovereign debts of 15 European governments fell 6 bp to a 4-1/2 month low 259 on speculation the ECB will resume bond buying of European sovereign debt to contain borrowing costs. ECB President Draghi meets U.S. Treasury Secretary Geithner in Frankfurt later today as they attempt to garner the support of Bundesbank President Weidman, a critic of ECB bond purchases.
• Euro-Zone July business confidence fell to -1.27, weaker than expectations of -1.09, and July Euro-Zone economic confidence dropped to 87.9, also weaker than expectations of 88.9. Both measures of confidence fell to their lowest levels in 2-3/4 years.
• U.K. Jun M4 money supply fell -1.6% m/m and -5.2% y/y, the biggest annual decline since the BOE began money supply data in 1983.
• Japan Jun industrial production unexpectedly fell -0.1% m/m, its third consecutive monthly decline and weaker than expectations of a +1.5% m/m increase.
  Market Comments
  • Sep E-mini S&Ps this morning are down -0.24% on weak bank stocks after Deutsche Bank lowered its rating on JPMorgan Chase. The U.S. stock market on Friday closed sharply higher for the second straight session: S&P 500 +1.91%, Dow Jones +1.46%, Nasdaq 100 +2.41%. The U.S. stock market continued to rally on optimism about ECB President Draghi's push for a bond purchase program for Spain and Italy to keep their bond yields down to manageable levels. Friday's U.S. Q2 GDP report of +1.5% was line with market expectations and was strong enough to avert concerns that the U.S. economy might be headed toward recession. The U.S. stock market also continued to receive support from hopes that the FOMC at its meeting on July 31-Aug 1 might implement additional easing moves.
  • Sep 10-year T-notes this morning are down -1.5 ticks. Sep 10-year T-note prices on Friday closed sharply lower: TYU2 -29, FVU2 -12. T-note prices plunged on reduced safe-haven support as ECB President Draghi pushes for a significant bond purchase program. In addition, Friday's U.S. Q2 GDP report of +1.5% was strong enough to avert recent worries about recession and deflation and to dampen hopes for further FOMC easing moves or QE3.
  • The dollar index this morning is stronger with EUR/USD -0.42% and USD/JPY -0.29%. The dollar index on Friday closed mildly lower: Dollar index -0.099 (-0.12%), EUR/USD +0.0039 (+0.32%), USD/JPY +0.25 (+0.32%). The dollar index on Friday posted a new 1-month low and EUR/USD posted a new 1-month high. The dollar index on Friday closed lower on reduced safe-haven support from ECB President Draghi's push for a new bond purchase program and on the U.S. GDP report of +1.5% that was no worse than market expectations. The Spanish 10-year bond yield last week fell 53 bp to 6.70% while Italian bond yield fell by 21 bp to 5.94%.
  • Sep WTI crude oil prices this morning are up +2 cents a barrel (+0.02%). Sep gasoline is up +0.62 of a cent per gallon (+0.22%). Crude oil and gasoline prices on Friday closed moderately higher: CLU2 +0.74 (+0.83%), RBU2 +0.0597 (+2.18%). Crude oil rallied on Friday on hopes for improved global economic growth and improved fuel demand if Europe can contain its debt crisis. The crude oil market was also relieved by the U.S. Q2 GDP report of +1.5%.
  • For the complete subscription version of this daily report (plus a 13-page big-picture weekly report), along with the earliest possible delivery in the morning, please visit http://www.barchart.com/register/crbfms_usmc.php
    Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (ranked by market cap): APC-Anadarko Petroleum (Consensus $0.77), SCCO-Southern Copper (0.61), BEN-Franklin Res (2.05), L-Lowes (0.76), STX-Seagate (2.43), VRTX-Vertex Pharm (0.69), FISV-Fiserv (1.26), ROP-Roper Industries (1.15), EEP-Enbridge Energy (0.30), CNA-CNA Financial (0.56), EMN-Eastman Chemical (1.30), CIT-CIT Group (-0.53), UDR-UDR Corp (-0.08), PCL-Plum Creek Timber (0.18), FLS-Flowserve (1.91), MLF-Herbalife (0.96).
    Global Financial Calendar
    

    Monday 7/30/12
    United States
    1030 ET	July Dallas Fed manufacturing activity index expected 2.0, June 5.8.
    1100 ET	USDA weekly grain export inspections.
    1130 ET	Weekly 3-mo and 6-mo T-bill auctions.
    1600 ET	USDA Crop Progress
    Japan
    0000 ET	Japan June vehicle production, May +59.5% y/y.
    1930 ET	Japan June jobless rate expected 4.4%, May 4.4%. June job-to-applicant ratio expected 0.82, May 0.81.
    1930 ET	Japan June overall household spending expected +2.9% y/y, May +4.0% y/y.
    2130 ET	Japan June labor cash earnings expected unch y/y, May -1.1% y/y.
    United Kingdom
    0430 ET	UK June net consumer credit expected +0.4 bln pounds, May +0.7 bln pounds. June net lending secured on dwellings expected +0.4 bln pounds, May +0.6 bln pounds.
    0430 ET	UK June mortgage approvals expected +48,000, May 51,100.
    0430 ET	UK June M4 money supply, May -0.1% m/m and -4.1% y/y.
    1901 ET	UK July GfK consumer confidence survey expected -29, June -29.
    Euro-Zone
    0500 ET	Eurozone July business climate indicator expected -1.09, June -0.94. Final-July Eurozone consumer confidence expected -21.6, previous -21.6. July Eurozone economic confidence expected 88.9, June 89.9. July Eurozone industrial confidence expected -14.0, June -12.7. July Eurozone services confidence expected -8.0, June -7.4.

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Barchart Morning Call 4/27

Barchart Morning Call

BC - 2 hrs 53 mins ago

Overnight Developments

• Global stock and commodity prices are mixed with June E-mini S&Ps up +1.50 points and the Euro Stoxx 50 up +0/22%. The euro rose from its worst levels and European stocks recovered from early losses after Italy sold 4.92 billion of 2017 and 202 bonds, close to its maximum target, while earnings results from Vinci SA and Sandvik AB beat analysts' forecasts. 10-year Treasury futures climbed to an all-time high and stocks and commodities slumped earlier after Standard & Poor's cut Spain's long-term credit rating by 2-steps to BBB+ from A with a negative outlook on concern it will have to provide further fiscal support to its banks as the economy contracts. Stocks fell further and the yield on Spain's 10-year bond rose to 6% after Spain's Q1 unemployment rate rose +1.5 to 24.4%, an 18-year high. After S&P downgraded Spain's sovereign-debt rating for the second time this year, Spain's Economy Minister Luis de Guindos said Spanish banks won't need external aid, nor will Spain need a bailout from its European partners. The British pound rose to a 7-1/2 month high against the dollar and a 22-month high against the euro on increased safe-haven demand on concern the European debt crisis is spreading. Other negatives for European stocks and the euro were the unexpected -0.2 point decline in the May German GfK consumer confidence survey to a 6-month low of 4.6 and the sharper-than-expected decline in Mar French consumer spending which fell -2.9% m/m and -2.0% y/y, weaker than expectations of -1.9% m/m and -0.2% y/y.
• Asian stocks today closed mostly lower with Japan down -0.43%, China -0.20%, Australia -0.30%, South Korea +0.73%, and India +0.02%. Most Asian stocks settled lower on concern that the European debt crisis will worsen and slow global economic growth after Spain had its credit rating cut by S&P. The yen rose to a 1-1/2 week high against the dollar, which undercut exporter stocks, despite the action by the BOJ to boost its asset-purchase program by 10 trillion yen ($125 billion), near the high side of expectations, after industrial production rose less than expected. Mar Japan industrial production increased +1.0% m/m and +13.9% y/y, weaker than expectations of +2.3% m/m and +15.5% y/y. Chinese stocks finished lower as well, as slumping corporate earnings overshadowed speculation the PBOC will ease monetary policy to boost economic growth.

Overnight U.S. Stock News

• June E-mini S&Ps this morning are trading up +1.50 points after recovering from earlier losses when S&P cut Spain's credit rating. The U.S. stock market on Thursday overcame early weakness from disappointing weekly U.S. jobless claims and shed its losses and moved higher the rest of the day on decent company earnings results and stronger-than-expected Mar U.S. pending home sales: Dow Jones +0.87%, S&P 500 +0.67%, Nasdaq Composite +0.69%. The S&P 500 and the Dow posted 3-week highs. Strong earnings results continue to support stocks as 75% of the S&P 500 companies that reported earnings results from Apr 10 have beaten estimates. Limiting gains in stocks were the larger-than-expected weekly initial U.S. unemployment claims (-1,000 to 388,000 versus expectations of -11,000 to 375,000), the decline in the Mar Chicago Fed national activity index to its weakest level in 7-months (-0.36 to -0.29), and carry-over weakness from a decline in European stocks after Apr Euro-Zone economic confidence fell to its lowest level in 2-1/2 years (-1.7 to 92.8).
• Starbucks (SBUX) fell 4.6% in European trading after the company reported Q2 same-store sales rose 7% globally, weaker than analysts' estimates of 8.2%.

Today's Market Focus

• June 10-year T-notes this morning are up +7 ticks as they posted a new all-time nearest futures high of 132-170. T-note prices Thursday strengthened after higher-than-expected weekly U.S. jobless claims added to speculation the Fed was far from cutting back on monetary stimulus: TYM2 +7.5, FVM2 +3.7. Dealer short-covering and hedge-lifting also boosted Treasuries after the conclusion of $99 billion of T-note auctions this week along with the larger-than-expected decline in the Mar Chicago Fed national activity index to its lowest level in 7 months (-0.36 to -0.29). Limiting gains in T-notes was stock market strength that sapped the safe-haven demand for Treasuries along with the larger-than-expected increase in Mar pending home sales (+4.1% m/m) and strong demand for the Treasury's $35 billion 5-year T-note auction that had a 3.09 bid-to-cover ratio, stronger than the 12-auction average of 2.90.
• The dollar index this morning is little changed with USD/JPY -0.27 yen and EUR/USD +0.11 cents. The dollar index on Thursday extended this week's decline to a fresh 3-week low and settled lower on reduced safe-haven demand after the S&P 500 rose to a 3-week high along with strength in the yen which rose to a 1-week high and the British pound which posted a 7-1/2 month high against the dollar: Dollar Index -0.093, USD/JPY -0.353, EUR/USD +0.00065. The yen strengthened on safe-haven demand and euro gains were limited after Apr Euro-Zone economic confidence fell to a 2-1/2 year low while the British pound rallied after Mar U.K. nationwide consumer confidence unexpectedly jumped +9 to a 10-month high of 53. The dollar also weakened on speculation Friday's Q1 U.S. GDP will show a slowdown in economic growth that prompts the Fed to keep its overly easy monetary policy in place.
• Jun crude oil prices this morning are trading down -24 cents a barrel and Jun gasoline is -0.92 of a cent per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices on Thursday erased early losses and moved higher as the dollar index slipped to a 3-week low and after a larger-than-expected increase in Mar U.S. pending home sales reduced economic concerns: CLM12 +0.43, RBM2 +1.37. Jun crude posted a 1-week high. A rally in stocks bolstered confidence in the economic outlook and was another positive for crude, while gains in crude were limited after Apr Euro-Zone economic confidence fell to its lowest level in 2-1/2 years.

Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (sorted by mkt cap): CVX-Chevron (consensus $3.23), PG-Procter & Gamble (0.92), MRK-Merk (0.98), SPG-Simon Property Group (0.65), F-Ford Motor (0.35), SCCO-Southern Copper (0.60), COV-Covidien Plc (1.03), NEM-Newmont Mining (1.13), VTR-Ventas (0.32), VFC-VF Corp. (1.88), IP-International Paper (0.50), WY-Weyerhaeuser (0.00), KKR-KKR & Co. LP (0.71), DTE-DTE Energy (1.09), CPN-Calpine (-0.13).
Global Financial Calendar

Friday 4/27/12
United States
0830 ET	Q1 employment cost index expected +0.5%, Q4 +0.4%.
0830 ET	Q1 GDP expected +2.5% annualized, Q4 +3.0% annualized. Q1 personal consumption expected +2.3%, Q4 +2.1%. Q1 GDP price index expected +2.1%, Q4 +0.9%. Q1 core PCE deflator expected +2.1% q/q, Q4 +1.3% q/q.
0955 ET	Final Apr U.S. University of Michigan consumer confidence expected unchanged at 75.7, previous -0.5 to 75.7.
Japan
0100 ET	Mar Japan construction orders, Feb -1.8% y/y.
0100 ET	Mar Japan housing starts expected +8.2% y/y to 875,000, Feb +7.5% y/y to 917,000.
Germany
0200 ET	May German GfK consumer confidence survey expected unchanged at 5.9, Apr -0.1 to 5.9.
0200 ET	Mar German import price index expected +0.9% m/m and +3.3% y/y, Feb +1.0% m/m and +3.5% y/y.
France
0245 ET	Mar French producer prices expected +0.6% m/m and +4.0% y/y, Feb +0.8% m/m and +4.3% y/y.
0245 ET	Mar French consumer spending expected -1.9% m/m and -0.2% y/y, Feb +3.0% m/m and +0.5% y/y.

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Barchart Morning Call 4/18

Barchart Morning Call

BC - 2 hrs 22 mins ago

Overnight Developments

• Global stock and commodity prices are mixed with June E-mini S&Ps down -3.50 points and the Euro Stoxx 50 down -0.33%. The dollar strengthened and most commodities fell, with May gasoline cascading to a 1-1/2 month low, on concern Spain may be the next Euro-Zone nation to need a bailout. Feb Spain non-performing loans as a proportion of total lending jumped to 8.16%, up from 7.91% in Jan and the highest level in 18 years. Data from the Bank of Spain show that Spanish banks are burdened with about 176 billion euros of "troubled" real estate assets and that 21% of the 298 billion euros of loans linked to property developers are non-performing. Despite the increase in the country's bad loans, the yield on Spain's 10-year bond fell to a 1-1/2 week low of 5.72% on optimism over tomorrows auctions of 2-year and 10-year Spanish securities. Another negative for European stocks was the drop in Feb Euro-Zone construction output for a third month after it fell -7.1% m/m and -12.9% y/y. The British pound climbed to a 2-week high against the dollar after the minutes of the Apr 4-5 BOE policy meeting showed that policy maker Posen ended his push for further stimulus. The pound also rallied after Mar U.K. jobless claims rose +3,600, less than expectations of +6,000, and after the ILO unemployment rate unexpectedly fell -0.1 to 8.3% in the quarter through Feb.
• Asian stocks today closed higher with Japan up +2.14%, China +2.28%, Australia +1.40%, South Korea +1.10%, India +0.20%. Asian stocks rose after the IMF raised its global economic forecasts and after Spain sold more bills than the maximum target. The yen slipped to a 1-week low against the dollar and boosted Japanese exporters after BOJ Deputy Governor Nishimura said that the BOJ is "committed to implementing additional easing measures, if deemed necessary." His comments bolster the view that the BOJ will expand its asset-purchase fund for the second time in 3 months at the BOJ's next policy meeting on Apr 27. China's Shanghai Stock Index climbed to a 3-1/2 week high on speculation the PBOC may cut banks' reserve requirement ratios after Mar China home prices fell in a record 37 of 70 cities tracked by the government.

Overnight U.S. Stock News

• June E-mini S&Ps this morning are trading down -3.50 points on disappointing earnings results from IBM and Intel along with concerns over Spains debt. The U.S. stock market on Tuesday rallied throughout the day and settled sharply higher as European debt concerns eased after Spain raised more than its maximum target at a bill auction and after the IMF hiked its 2012 and 2013 GDP forecasts: Dow Jones +1.50%, S&P 500 +1.55%, Nasdaq Composite +1.82%. The S&P 500 posted a 1-week high and the Dow Jones climbed to a 1-1/2 week high. Additional bullish factors were carry-over strength from a rally in European equities after Apr German ZEW investor confidence unexpectedly rose to a 22-month high and after Mar U.S. building permits unexpectedly rose to their best level in 3-1/2 years (+4.5% to 747,000 versus expectations of -0.7% to 710,000). Negatives for stocks were the decline in Mar U.S. housing starts to a 5-month low (-5.8% to 654,000) and the unexpected stagnation in Mar industrial production (unchanged versus expectations of +0.3%).
• International Business Machines (IBM) slipped 1.6% in European trading after the company reported late yesterday Q1 sales of $24.7 billion, below analysts' predictions of $24.8 billion.
• Intel (INTC) fell 3% in pre-market trading after the company late yesterday predicted that gross margins, or the percentage of sales remaining after deductng costs of production, will be about 62% in Q2, below analysts' projections of 63.5%.

Today's Market Focus

• June 10-year T-notes this morning are up +3 ticks. T-note prices Tuesday settled lower on reduced safe-haven demand as stocks rallied when the IMF raised its global GDP forecasts and after European debt concerns eased when Spain raised more than its maximum target at a bill auction: TYM2 -8.5, FVM2 -3.2. Other bearish factors included carry-over weakness from a slide in bund prices after the Apr German ZEW economic sentiment unexpectedly rose to a 22-month high and after St. Louis Fed President Bullard said that U.S. economic growth will quicken from a range of 2.5% to 2.7% during Q1 of 2012 to 3.0% for the entire year and that the Fed will probably need to tighten policy during the "last part of 2013." Limiting declines in T-note prices was the unexpected fall in Mar housing starts (-5.8% to 654,000 versus expectations of +1.0% to 705,000) which fell to a 5-month low.
• The dollar index this morning is higher with USD/JPY +0.54 yen and EUR/USD -0.50 cents. The dollar index Tuesday retreated and closed lower on reduced safe-haven demand after global stocks rallied sharply when the IMF hiked its global GDP forecasts along with reduced European debt concerns after Spain sold more than its maximum target of bills at auction: Dollar Index -0.079, USD/JPY +0.437, EUR/USD -0.00144. Other bearish factors for the dollar included the unexpected increase in the Apr German ZEW economic sentiment survey which rose to a 22-month high, and after weaker then expected U.S. economic data on Mar U.S. housing starts and Mar U.S. industrial production indicated uneven U.S. economic growth.
• May crude oil prices this morning are trading down -12 cents a barrel and May gasoline is -4.27 cents per gallon at a 1-1/2 month low. Crude oil prices on Tuesday settled mixed as crude gained on reduced European debt concerns after Spanish bond yields fell along with the action by the IMF to hike its global GDP forecast, but gasoline weakened on unwinding of crack spreads and the Brent-WTI spread, which prompted liquidation of long gasoline futures positions: CLM12 +1.27, RBM2 -3.30. May crude rallied up to a 2-week high. Bullish factors included an easing of European sovereign-debt concerns after Spain sold more than its maximum target of bills and after the IMF raised its global GDP outlook for 2012 and 2013. Bearish factors included liquidation of long gasoline positions as crack spreads were unwound along with the outlook for Wednesday's weekly DOE inventory report to show that U.S. crude supplies rose to a 10-month high. Expectations for the weekly DOE inventory report on Wednesday are for crude oil stockpiles to climb +1.6 million bbl, gasoline supplies to fall -1.0 million bbl, distillate inventories to remain unchanged and the refinery utilization rate to increase +0.7 to 84.5% of capacity.

Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (sorted by mkt cap): QCOM-Qualcomm (consensus $0.96), ABT-Abbott Labs (1.00), AXP-American Express (1.01), VMW-VMware (0.60), EBAY-Ebay (0.52), BLK-BlackRock (3.04), YUM-Yum! Brands (0.73), PNC-PNC Financial Services Group (1.48), KMI-Kinder Morgan (0.31), HAL-Halliburton (0.86), BK-Bank of New York Mellon (0.52), KMP-Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (0.64), SCCO-Southern Copper (0.61), SWK-Stanley Black & Decker (1.12), MAR-Marriott International (0.29).
Global Financial Calendar

Wednesday 4/18/12
United States
0700 ET	Weekly MBA mortgage applications.
United Kingdom
0430 ET	Minutes of the Apr 4-5 BOE policy meeting.
0430 ET	Mar U.K. jobless claims change expected +6,000, Feb +7,200. Mar claimant count rate expected 5.0%, Feb 5.0%.
0430 ET	Feb U.K. avg weekly earnings expected +1.2% 3-mo/year-over-year, Jan +1.4% 3-mo/year-over-year.
0430 ET	Feb U.K. ILO unemployment rate expected unchanged at 8.4%, Jan unchanged at 8.4%.
Euro-Zone
0500 ET	Feb Euro-Zone construction output, Jan -0.8% m/m and -1.4% y/y.
0700 ET	European Commission releases a statement on growth and jobs in Greece.
Canada
1030 ET	BOC releases its monetary policy report.
Japan
1830 ET	BOJ Governor Shirakawa speaks at an event in New York.
1950 ET	Mar Japan exports expected +0.2% y/y, Feb -2.7% y/y. Mar imports expected +7.0% y/y, Feb +9.2% y/y.

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