MORNING CALL 2/16

MORNING CALL

Tuesday, February 16th, 2016View Older Reports

Everything you need to know about the markets in one free daily newsletter.

E-mail:  

You will also receive a free subscription to the Barchart family of newsletters.

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

March E-mini S&Ps (ESH16 +1.41%) are up +1.20% at a 1-week high, led by a rally in energy producers, with ConocoPhilips and Marathon Oil up at least 2% in pre-market trading as crude oil gains +0.95%. A rally in bank stocks is also pushing stock index futures higher with Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley all up over 1% in pre-market trading. European stocks are down -0.28%, led by weakness in commodity producers, as Anglo American Plc dropped over 6% after the company said it would sell more mines and raise its debt-reduction target following a fourth year of losses. European stocks were also undercut after German Feb ZEW expectations of economic growth fell to the lowest in 16 months. Asian stocks settled mostly higher: Japan +0.20%, Hong Kong +1.08%, China +3.29%, Taiwan +1.80%, Australia +1.37%, Singapore +1.41%, South Korea +1.37%, India -1.54%. China's Shanghai Composite climbed to a 3-week high after Chinese data showed a record jump in new credit last month. Also, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said Monday that China will take decisive actions if needed amid recent global economic headwinds and slumping equity markets.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.65%) is up +0.69%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.03%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.48%.

Mar T-note prices (ZNH16 -0.21%) are down -4.5 ticks.

The German Feb ZEW survey expectations of economic growth fell -9.2 to 1.0, stronger than expectations of -10.2 to 0, but still the lowest in 16 months.

China Jan new yuan loans surged by a record 2.51 trillion yuan, stronger than expectations of +1.90 trillion yuan. Jan aggregate financing, the broadest measure of new credit, jumped a record +3.42 trillion yuan, stronger than expectations of +2.20 trillion yuan.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Feb Empire manufacturing index (expected +9.37 to -10.00, Jan -13.16 to -19.37), (2) Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker's speech on the 2016 economic forecast at the University of Delaware’s Center for Economic Education and Entrepreneurship, and (3) Feb NAHB housing market index (expected unch at 60, Jan unch at 60).

There are 14 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today with notable reports including: Agilent Technologies (consensus $0.43), Genuine Parts (1.01), Hormel Foods (0.36), Pulbic Storage (2.42), FirstEnergy (0.57).

U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: none.

Equity conferences this week include: Consumer Analysts Group of New York Investor Conference on Tue.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

ADT Corp. (ADT +1.90%) surged over 40% in pre-market trading after it agreed to be purchased by Apollo Global affiliates for $6.9 billion or $42 a share.

Freeport McMoRan (FCX +13.09%) jumped almost 8% in pre-market trading after it agreed to sell an additional stake n one of its biggest mines to Sumitomo Metal Mining for $1 billion.

Goldman Sachs (GS +3.87%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Underweight' at JPMorgan Chase.

Hormel Foods (HRL -0.46%) reported Q1 EPS of 43 cents, better than consensus of 39 cents.

Flowers Foods (FLO -6.54%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at BB&T Capital Markets.

AutoZone (AZO +2.37%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Neutral' at Wedbush.

Peabody Energy (BTU +2.97%) was downgraded to 'Underweight' from 'Hold' at BB&T Capital Markets.

EMC Corp. (EMC -0.12%) gained over 1% in after-hours trading after Baupost Group LLC Holdings reported that it purchased 29.2 million shares in the company.

USG Corp. (USG +7.05%) fell over 1% in after-hours trading after Appaloosa Management LP Holdings said it sold its stake in USG.

Groupon (GRPN +29.02%) climbed over 2% in after-hours trading after BABA reported a 5.6% stake in the company.

Energy Transfer Partners LP (ETP +8.38%) rose 1% in after-hours trading after Perry Corporation Holdings and Appaloosa Management LP Holdings reported new stakes in the company.

Waterstone Financial (WSBF +0.81%) CFO Allan Hosack will resign effective March 1 and Mark Gerke was named interim CFO.

Anworth Mortgage (ANH +0.24%) reported Q4 core EPS of 15 cents, better than consensus of 14 cents.

MARKET COMMENTS

Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH16 +1.41%) this morning are up +22.25 points (+1.20%) at a 1-week high. Friday's closes: S&P 500 +1.95%, Dow Jones +2.00%, Nasdaq +1.44%. The S&P 500 on Friday closed sharply higher on stronger-than-expected U.S. Jan retail sales (+0.2% and +0.1% ex autos vs. expectations of +0.1% and unchanged ex autos), and after New York Fed President Dudley said that key sectors of the U.S. economy "seem to be in good shape." Another bullish factor for stocks was the sharp 12% rally in crude oil which supported gains in energy stocks.

Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH16 -0.21%) this morning are down -4.5 ticks. Friday's closes: TYH6 -31.00, FVH6 -15.75. Mar T-notes on Friday closed lower after U.S. Jan retail sales rose more than expected (+0.2% and +0.1% ex autos vs. expectations of +0.1% and unch ex autos), and after stocks rallied sharply, which reduced the safe-haven demand for T-notes.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.65%) this morning is up +0.662 (+0.69%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0003 (+0.03%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.55(-0.48%). Friday's closes: Dollar Index +0.378 (+0.40%), EUR/USD -0.0067 (-0.59%), USD/JPY +0.83 (+0.74%). The dollar index on Friday closed higher on strength in U.S. Jan retail sales along with weakness in EUR/USD after Dec industrial production unexpectedly fell by the most in 16 months (-1.0% m/m vs. expectations of +0.3% m/m).

Mar WTI crude (CLH16 +2.24%) this morning is up +28 cents (+0.95%) and Mar gasoline (RBH16 -0.57%) is down -0.0148 (-1.42%). Friday's closes: CLH6 +3.23 (+12.32%), RBH6 +0.0914 (+9.71%). Mar crude oil and gasoline on Friday settled sharply higher on short-covering after U.A.E. Oil Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei said that oil "prices are not appropriate" and that producers are ready to work together and won't make production cuts unless there is complete cooperation. Energy prices strengthened further after data from Baker Hughes showed that active U.S. oil rigs fell by 28 in the week ended Feb 12 to 439, a 6-year low.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR02/16/2016

US	0830 ET	Feb Empire manufacturing survey of general business conditions expected +9.37 to -10.00, Jan -13.16 to -19.37.
	0830 ET	Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker delivers a speech on the 2016 economic forecast at the University of Delawares Center for Economic Education and Entrepreneurship.
	1000 ET	Feb NAHB housing market index expected unch at 60, Jan unch at 60.
	1100 ET	USDA weekly grain export inspections.
EUR	0200 ET	Eurozone Jan new car registrations, Dec +16.6% y/y.
UK	0430 ET	UK Jan CPI expected -0.7% m/m and +0.3% y/y, Dec +0.1% m/m and +0.2% y/y. Jan core CPI expected +1.3% y/y, Dec +1.4% y/y.
	0430 ET	UK Jan RPI expected -0.6% m/m and +1.4% y/y, Dec +0.3% m/m and +1.2% y/y. Jan RPI ex-mortgage interest payments expected +1.4% y/y, Dec +1.3% y/y.
	0430 ET	UK Jan PPI input prices expected -1.3% m/m and -8.7% y/y, Dec -0.8% m/m and -10.8% y/y.
	0430 ET	UK Jan PPI output prices expected -0.2% m/m and -0.9% y/y, Dec -0.2% m/m and -1.2% y/y. Jan PPI output core expected +0.1% m/m and unch y/y, Dec +0.2% m/m and +0.1% y/y.
	0430 ET	UK Dec ONS house prices, Nov +7.7% y/y.
GER	0500 ET	German Feb ZEW survey expectations of economic growth expected -10.2 to 0, Jan 10.2. Feb ZEW survey current situation expected -4.7to 55.0, Jan 59.7.
JPN	1850 ET	Japan Dec machine orders expected +4.7% m/m and -2.8% y/y, Nov -14.4% m/m and +1.2% y/y.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR02/16/2016

Company	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
TEGNA Inc	TGNA US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	0.457
Genuine Parts Co	GPC US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	1.013
Hormel Foods Corp	HRL US	Bef-mkt	Q1 2016 Earnings Release	Q1 2016	0.348
Zoetis Inc	ZTS US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	0.385
Baxalta Inc	BXLT US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	0.555
Public Storage	PSA US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	2.421
Vornado Realty Trust	VNO US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	1.303
Cerner Corp	CERN US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	0.568
Express Scripts Holding Co	ESRX US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	1.556
FirstEnergy Corp	FE US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	0.568
Devon Energy Corp	DVN US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	0.707
Agilent Technologies Inc	A US	Aft-mkt	Q1 2016 Earnings Release	Q1 2016	0.433
FMC Technologies Inc	FTI US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	0.483
Cimarex Energy Co	XEC US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	-0.221

MORNING CALL 11/23

MORNING CALL

Monday, November 23rd, 2015View Older Reports

Everything you need to know about the markets in one free daily newsletter.

E-mail:  

You will also receive a free subscription to the Barchart family of newsletters.

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ15 -0.01%) are down -0.14% and European stocks are down -0.36% after weekend comments from San Francisco Fed President Williams that there's a "strong case" for a Fed rate hike next month sparked a sell-off in commodity prices. Crude oil (CLF16 +0.62%) is down-1.74%, which undercut energy and raw material producers, while the price of copper (HGZ15 -1.44%) dropped -1.95% to a fresh 6-1/2 year low, which also pressured mining stocks with Freeport McMoRan and BHP Billiton both down nearly 2%. U.S. stock futures rebounded from their worst levels on increased M&A activity after Pfizer and Allergan announced that they will merge in a deal valued at over $150 billion. Losses in European stocks were contained after the Eurozone Nov Markit composite PMI expanded at its fastest pace in 4-1/2 years. Asian stocks settled mixed: Japan closed for holiday, Hong Kong -0.39%, China -0.56%, Taiwan +0.24%, Australia +0.39%, Singapore -0.49%, South Korea +0.46%, India -0.19%.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.14%) is up +0.30% at a 7-1/4 month high after comments from San Francisco Fed President Williams bolstered the case for a Fed rate hike next month. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.20% at a 7-1/4 month low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.30%.

Dec T-note prices (ZNZ15 -0.21%) are down -7 ticks.

San Francisco Fed President Williams said there's a "strong case" for a Federal Reserve interest rate increase in December assuming U.S. economic data continues to be encouraging.

The Eurozone Nov Markit composite PMI rose +0.5 to 54.4, stronger than expectations of +0.1 to 54.0 and the fastest pace of expansion in 4-1/2 years.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Oct Chicago Fed national activity index (expected +0.45 to 0.08, Sep +0.02 to -0.37), (2) preliminary Nov Markit manufacturing PMI (expected -0.1 to 54.0, Oct +1.0 to 54.1), (3) Oct existing home sales (expected -2.7% to 5.40 million, Sep +4.7% to 5.55 million), and (4) the Treasury's auction of $26 billion 2-year T-notes.

There are 7 of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: Tyson Foods (consensus $0.88), Jacobs Engineering (0.77), GameStop (0.59), Mallinckrodt (1.76), Copart (0.43), Brocade Communications (0.24), Palo Alto Networks (0.32).

U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: Adnina Acquisition Corp II (ANDAU).

Equity conferences this week include: J.P. Morgan Asia Rising Dragons One-on-One Forum on Mon-Tue, INTERGAS VII Oil, Gas & Petrochemicals Conference & Exhibition on Wed.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Freeport McMoRan (FCX -1.90%) and Royal Gold (RGLD -2.99%) are both down nearly 2% in pre-market trading as metals prices plunged in early trade on Monday, with Dec copper falling to a fresh 6-1/2 year low.

Tyson Foods (TSN -1.82%) reported Q4 EPS of 83 cents, below consensus of 88 cents.

Chipolte Mexican Grill (CMG -12.32%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Sterne Agee CRT.

Novartis (NVS -0.25%) was cut to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Vontobel.

Kellog (K -0.33%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Neutral' at Credit Suisse with a price target of $76.

Allergan Plc (AGN +3.45%) is up over 5% in pre-market trading on speculation that Pfizer may acknowledge, as soon as today, a deal that it will acquire the company in an agreement worth more than $150 billion.

Panerea Bread (PNRA +0.20%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Maxim Group with a 12-month price target of $210.

Hewlett Packard (HPQ +1.96%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Maxim Group with a 2-month price target of $17.

Peabody Energy (BTU -4.65%) will sell New Mexico and Colorado coal assets for $358 million to Bowie Resource Partners LLC, which will also assume $105 million in liabilities.

Novacure (NVCR -1.65%) jumped over 10% in after-hours trading after Phase 3 data showed brain cancer patients who were treated with its Tumor Treating Fields therapy lived longer than patients who received chemotherapy alone.

TerraForm Power (TERP +9.65%) rose over 1% in after-hours trading after BlueMountain Capital raised its stake in the company to 10.1% from 7.3%.

MARKET COMMENTS

Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ15 -0.01%) this morning are down -3.00 points (-0.14%). Friday's closes: S&P 500 +0.38%, Dow Jones +0.51%, Nasdaq +0.67%. The S&P 500 on Friday posted a 2-week high and closed higher on ECB President Draghi's indication that the ECB may expand stimulus when it meets next month when he said the ECB will do what's necessary to raise inflation "as quickly as possible." In addition, there were upbeat comments from St. Louis Fed President Bullard who said that U.S. financial conditions have improved and the probability for a hard landing in China's economy has not risen.

Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ15 -0.21%) this morning are down -7 ticks. Friday's closes: TYZ5 -3.50, FVZ5 -1.75. Dec T-notes on Friday rallied to a 2-week high but erased their gains and closed lower. T-note prices were undercut by the rally in the S&P 500 to a 2-week high, which reduced the safe-haven demand for T-notes. T-notes were also undercut by the rise in the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation expectations rate to a 2-1/2 month high.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.14%) this morning is up +0.302 (+0.30%) at a 7-1/4 month high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0021 (-0.20%) at a 7-1/4 month low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.37 (+0.30%). Friday's closes: Dollar Index +0.576 (+0.58%), EUR/USD -0.0088 (-0.82%), USD/JPY -0.06(-0.05%). The dollar index on Friday closed higher on St. Louis Fed President Bullard's comment that the probabilities of an end to zero interest rates in the U.S. "have increased." In addition, there was weakness in EUR/USD sparked by ECB President Draghi's suggestion that the ECB will expand QE at the Dec 3 ECB meeting when he said that policy makers will do what they must to raise inflation "as quickly as possible."

Jan crude oil (CLF16 +0.62%) this morning is down -73 cents (-1.74%) and Jan gasoline (RBF16 +1.59%) is down -0.0025 (-0.20%). Friday's closes: CLF6 +0.18 (+0.43%), RBF6 -0.0008 (-0.06%). Jan crude oil and gasoline on Friday settled mixed. Metals were boosted by the rally in the S&P 500 to a 2-week high, which bolsters confidence in the economic outlook and energy demand, and by expectations for U.S. oil production to fall after Baker Hughes reported that active U.S. oil rigs fell by 10 rigs in the week ended Nov 20 to a 5-1/3 year low of 564 rigs. Crude prices were undercut by the stronger dollar and the ongoing crude oil supply glut with U.S. crude supplies over 100 million bbl above the seasonal 5-year average.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR11/23/2015

US	0830 ET	Oct Chicago Fed national activity index expected +0.45 to 0.08, Sep +0.02 to -0.37.
	0945 ET	Preliminary Nov Markit manufacturing PMI expected -0.1 to 54.0, Oct +1.0 to 54.1.
	1000 ET	Oct existing home sales expected -2.7% to 5.40 million, Sep +4.7% to 5.55 million.
	1100 ET	USDA weekly grain export inspections.
	1300 ET	Treasury auctions $26 billion 2-year T-notes.
	1500 ET	USDA Oct Cold Storage.
	1600 ET	USDA weekly crop progress.
GER	0330 ET	German Nov Markit/BME manufacturing PMI expected -0.1 to 52.0, Oct 52.1. Nov Markit services PMI expected -0.1 to 54.4, Oct 54.5.
EUR	0400 ET	Eurozone Nov Markit manufacturing PMI expected unch at 52.3. Nov Markit composite PMI expected +0.1 to 54.0, Oct 53.9.
JPN	2035 ET	Japan Nov Nikkei manufacturing PMI, Oct 52.4.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR11/23/2015

Company	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Jacobs Engineering Group Inc	JEC US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	0.772
GameStop Corp	GME US	Bef-mkt	Q3 2016 Earnings Release	Q3 2016	0.593
Mallinckrodt PLC	MNK US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	1.763
Tyson Foods Inc	TSN US	7:30	Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	0.881
Mallinckrodt PLC	MNK US	8:30	Q4 2015 Earnings Call	Q4 2015
Tyson Foods Inc	TSN US	9:00	Q4 2015 Earnings Call	Q4 2015
Jacobs Engineering Group Inc	JEC US	11:00	Q4 2015 Earnings Call	Q4 2015
GameStop Corp	GME US	11:00	Q3 2016 Earnings Call	Q3 2016
Palo Alto Networks Inc	PANW US	16:30	Q1 2016 Earnings Call	Q1 2016
Copart Inc	CPRT US	Aft-mkt	Q1 2016 Earnings Release	Q1 2016	0.426
Brocade Communications Systems Inc	BRCD US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	0.244
Palo Alto Networks Inc	PANW US	Aft-mkt	Q1 2016 Earnings Release	Q1 2016	0.318
Brocade Communications Systems Inc	BRCD US	17:30	Q4 2015 Earnings Call	Q4 2015

BARCHART MORNING CALL 3/10

BARCHART MORNING CALL

March E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 -0.87%) this morning are down -0.59% at a 1-3/4 month low and European stocks are down -0.78% after Dallas Fed President Fisher said that the Fed should raise interest rates before the economy reaches full employment to avoid triggering a recession. The yield on the German 10-year bund fell to a record low of 0.279% as the ECB bought Eurozone government bonds in the second day of its quantitative easing program. Asian stocks closed mostly lower: Japan -0.67%, Hong Kong -0.94%, China -0.48%, Taiwan -0.28%, Australia +0.05%, Singapore -0.19%, South Korea -0.40%, India -0.47%. Asian stocks fell back on China deflation concerns after China's producer prices extended a record stretch of declines to 36 months after Chine Feb PPI fell -4.8% y/y, the biggest decline in over 5 years. Commodity prices are mostly lower on a rally in the dollar. Apr crude oil (CLJ15 -0.98%) is down -0.48%. Apr gasoline (RBJ15 -1.07%) is down -0.94%. Apr gold (GCJ15 -0.37%) is down -0.45% at a 3-month low as the dollar strengthens. May copper (HGK15 -2.38%) is down -1.85%. Agriculture prices are lower ahead of the USDA's Mar WASDE crop production report. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.82%) is up +0.71% at an 11-1/2 year high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.84% at an 11-3/4 year low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.41% at a 7-1/2 year high. Jun T-note prices (ZNM15 +0.21%) are up +5 ticks.
Dallas Fed President Fisher said the Fed should raise interest rates before the economy reaches full employment as policy makers are better off tightening monetary policy earlier and more gradually than later and more quickly. He added that "every time the Fed tightened policy after achieving full employment, it has driven the economy into recession."
China Feb CPI rose +1.4% y/y, stronger than expectations of +1.0% y/y. Feb PPI fell -4.8% y/y, weaker than expectations of -4.3% y/y and the fastest pace of decline in 5-1/3 years.
Japan Feb machine tool orders jumped +28.9% y/y, the seventeenth consecutive month that machine tool orders have increased.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Today’s Jan JOLTS job openings report is expected to show a +22,000 increase to 5.050 million, adding to December’s +181,000 increase to 5.028 million. The Treasury today will sell $24 billion of 3-year T-notes. There are two of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: John Wiley (consensus $0.97), VeriFone Systems (0.41).
Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Deutsche Bank Media, Internet & Telecom Conference on Mon-Wed, 11th Annual Private Banking Asia 2015 on Mon-Wed, Citigroup Asset Manager, Broker Dealer & Exchanges Conference on Tue, KBW Cards, Payments & Financial Technology Conference on Tue, Mitsubishi UFJ Securities Oil & Gas Conference on Tue, ROTH Growth Stock Conference on Tue, Susquehanna Chemical Conference, Keefe Bruyette & Woods Cards Payments & Financial Technology Symposium on Tue, Piper Jaffray Technology, Media and Telecommunications Conference on Tue-Wed, RBC Capital Markets Financial Institutions Conference on Tue-Wed, Credit Agricole Global High Yield Conference on Wed, Goldman Sachs TMT Leveraged Finance Conference on Wed, Barclays Capital Health Care Conference on Tue-Thu, Deutsche Bank Regional Banks Summit on Thu, Nomura - Conference: US Software Conference - New York on Thu.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Peabody Coal (BTU -0.78%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Jefferies.
AutoZone (AZO +0.88%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Argus.
NVIDIA (NVDA +0.27%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at BofA/Merrill Lynch.
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ -0.69%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at UBS.
Qihoo 360 (QIHU -1.88%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 75 cents, better than consensus of 71 cents.
Skyworks (SWKS +1.50%) will replace PetSmart (PETM +0.06%) in the S&P 500 as of the close of trading on Wednesday.
Mindray Medical (MR -1.90%) reported Q4 non-GAAP EPS of 49 cents, less than consensus of 52 cents.
Guggenheim Partners reported a 10.9% stake in Merge Healthcare (MRGE -9.19%) .
Illumina (ILMN -0.04%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at UBS with a price target of $240.
OrbiMed reported a 13.57% passive stake in Synergy Pharmaceuticals (SGYP +2.57%) .
Titan Machinery (TITN -5.90%) slid over 8% in after-hours trading after it reported preliminary a Q4 ex-items EPS loss of -18 cents to -23 cents, well below consensus of 9 cents. The company also said it will reduce its workforce by 14%.
United Natural Foods (UNFI +2.18%) reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 65 cents, below consensus of 67 cents, and then lowered guidance on fiscal 2015 revenue to $8.19 billion-$8.29 billion, less than consensus of $8.33 billion.
Casey's General Stores (CASY +3.72%) reported Q3 EPS of $1.01, well above consensus of 82 cents.
Qualcomm (QCOM +1.69%) authorized a repurchase of $15 billion in common stock.
Urban Outfitters (URBN +1.59%) reported Q4 EPS of 60 cents, better than consensus of 58 cents.

MARKET COMMENTS

Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 -0.87%) this morning are down -12.25 points (-0.59%) at a 1-3/4 month low. The S&P 500 index on Monday closed higher: S&P 500 +0.39%, Dow Jones +0.78%, Nasdaq +0.31%. Bullish factors included (1) increased M&A activity after Simon Property Group offered to buy Macerich for $22.4 billion and after Alcoa bought RTI International Metals for $1.26 billion, and (2) strength in energy producers after crude oil rallied.
Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM15 +0.21%) this morning are up +5 ticks. Jun 10-year T-note futures prices on Monday closed higher. Closes: TYM5 +11.50, FVM5 +7.00. Bullish factors included (1) carry-over support from a rally in German bunds which rose to a 1-week high as the ECB began its QE program, and (2) increased safe-haven demand for T-notes after the yield on the 10-year Greek bond rose to a 2-week high of 10.06% on revived Greek debt concerns when European officials said Greece’s latest proposals were “far” from complete.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.82%) this morning is up +0.696 *+0.71%) at an 11-1/2 year high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0091 (-0.84%) at an 11-3/4 year low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.50 (+0.41%) at a 7-1/2 year high. The dollar index on Monday posted an 11-1/2 year high but fell back and closed slightly lower: Dollar index -0.027 (-0.03%), EUR/USD +0.00069 (+0.06%), USD/JPY +0.357 (+0.30%). Bullish factors included (1) carry-over support from Friday’s stronger-than-expected U.S. Feb payrolls report, and (2) weakness in EUR/USD which fell to a 11-1/2 year low as the ECB began its QE program. EUR/USD recovered from an 11-1/2 year low and closed higher after the Eurozone Mar Sentix investor confidence rose more than expected to a 7-1/2 year high.
Apr WTI crude oil (CLJ15 -0.98%) this morning is down -24 cents (-0.48%) and Apr gasoline (RBJ15 -1.07%) is down -0.0176 (-0.94%). Apr crude oil and gasoline prices on Monday settled mixed: CLJ5 +0.39 (+0.79%), RBJ5 -0.0054 (-0.29%). Supportive factors included (1) Genscape’s forecast that Wednesday’s weekly EIA data will show crude supplies at Cushing, OK, delivery point for WTI futures, rose at a slower pace in the week ended Mar 6 than the prior week’s increase of +536,000 bbl, and (2) strength in stocks. A bearish factor was the rally in the dollar index to an 11-1/2 year high.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR03/10/2015

US	1000 ET	Jan wholesale inventories expected -0.1% m/m, Dec +0.1% m/m. Jan wholesale trade sales expected -0.5%, Dec -0.4% m/m.
	1000 ET	Jan JOLTS job openings expected +22,000 to 5.050 million, Dec +181,000 to 5.028 million.
	1200 ET	USDA Mar WASDE crop production.
	1300 ET	Treasury auctions $24 billion 3-year T-notes.
JPN	0200 ET	Japan Feb machine tool orders, Jan +20.4% y/y.
	1950 ET	Japan Feb PPI expected unch m/m and +0.5% y/y, Jan -1.3% m/m and +0.3% y/y.
	1950 ET	Japan Jan machine orders expected -4.0% m/m and -1.0% y/y, Dec +8.3% m/m and +11.4% y/y.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR03/10/2015

Company	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Actavis plc	ACT US	4:30	Shareholders Meeting - M&A Vote	Y 2015
John Wiley & Sons Inc	JW/A US	Bef-mkt	Q3 2015 Earnings Release	Q3 2015	0.97
Bemis Co Inc	BMS US	9:00	Investor Day	Y 2015
Whole Foods Market Inc	WFM US	9:30	Annual General Meeting
Chevron Corp	CVX US	10:00	Analyst Meeting	Y 2015
John Wiley & Sons Inc	JW/A US	10:00	Q3 2015 Earnings Call	Q3 2015
Allergan Inc/United States	AGN US	13:00	Shareholders Meeting - M&A Vote	Y 2015
Landstar System Inc	LSTR US	14:00	Q1 2015 Guidance Call	Q1 2015
Xilinx Inc	XLNX US	15:00	Investor & Analyst Meeting	Y 2015
VeriFone Systems Inc	PAY US	16:30	Q1 2015 Earnings Call	Q1 2015
Adobe Systems Inc	ADBE US	17:00	Analyst Briefing	Y 2015
VeriFone Systems Inc	PAY US	Aft-mkt	Q1 2015 Earnings Release	Q1 2015	0.409
Energen Corp	EGN US		Investment Community Meeting - Day 2	Y 2015
Joy Global Inc	JOY US		Annual General Meeting
Toll Brothers Inc	TOL US		Annual General Meeting
Apple Inc	AAPL US		Annual General Meeting

BARCHART MORNING CALL 9/18

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Thursday, September 18th, 2014View Older Reports

Everything you need to know about the markets in one free daily newsletter.

E-mail:

You will also receive a free subscription to the Barchart family of newsletters.

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 +0.41%) this morning are up +0.40% and European stocks are up +0.77% on positive carry-over from yesterday's FOMC meeting where policy makes kept their pledge to keep interest rates near zero for a "considerable period" after completing asset purchases. Asian stocks closed mostly higher: Japan +1.13%, Hong Kong -0.85%, China +0.31%, Taiwan +0.46%, Australia +0.16%, Singapore +0.02%, South Korea -0.87%, India +1.81%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index climbed to an 8-1/4 month high after Japan's trade balance unexpectedly shrunk last month and after exporters rallied when they yen plunged to a 6-year low against the dollar. Commodity prices are mostly lower on dollar strength. Oct crude oil (CLV14 +0.08%) is down -0.14%. Oct gasoline (RBV14 +0.19%) is up +0.04%. Dec gold (GCZ14 -1.05%) is down -0.93% at an 8-1/4 month low on fund selling after the FOMC yesterday increased its estimates for interest rates. Liquidation by funds cut long gold positions in ETF's to 1,706 MT today, the lowest in 4-3/4 years. Dec copper (HGZ14 -0.67%) is down -0.29% on Chinese demand concerns after China's new-home prices fell last month. Agriculture and livestock prices are mostly lower. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.20%) is up +0.22%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.12%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.28% at a fresh 6-year high. Dec T-note prices (ZNZ14 -0.21%) are down -8.5 ticks at a 1-1/2 month low.
China Aug new-home prices fell from a month earlier in 68 of 70 cities tracked by the National Bureau of Statistics, the most since Jan 2011 when the government changed the way it compiles the data.
The Japan Aug trade balance unexpectedly shrank to a deficit of -948.5 billion yen, better than expectations of an increase in the deficit to -1.028 trillion yen, Aug exports fell -1.3% y/y, better than expectations of -2.6% y/y. Aug imports fell -1.5% y/y, a bigger decline than expectations of -1.2% y/y.
UK Sep CBI trends total orders fell -15 to -4, a bigger decline than expectations of -2 to 9 and the lowest in a year. The Sep CBI trends selling prices unexpectedly rose +2 to 1, higher than expectations of unch at -1.
UK Aug retail sales ex autos rose +0.2% m/m and +4.5% y/y, less than expectations of +0.3% m/m and +4.8% y/y. Aug retail sales including autos rose +0.4% m/m and +3.9% y/y, slightly less than expectations of +0.4% m/m and +4.0% y/y.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

The market is looking for today’s weekly initial unemployment claims report to show a -10,000 decline to 305,000, reversing nearly all of last week’s rise of +11,000 to 315,000. Meanwhile, the market is expecting today’s continuing claims report to show a -21,000 decline to 2.466 million, more than reversing last week’s increase of +9,000 to 2.487 million. The market is expecting today’s Aug housing starts report to show a decline of -5.2% to 1.037 million, giving back about one-third of July’s surge of +15.7% to 1.093 million. The market is expecting today’s Sep Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index to show a decline of -5.0 to 23.0, more than reversing the +4.1 point increase to 28.0 seen in August. There are 6 earnings reports today from the Russell 1000 companies: IHS (consensus $1.44), Rite Aid (0.06), ConAgra Foods (0.35), Oracle (0.64), Red Hat (0.38), TIBCO Software (0.18).
Equity conferences this week include: Credit Suisse Basic Materials Conference on Tue-Thu, Wolfe Research Power & Gas Leaders Conference on Wed-Thu, Morningstar Management Behind the Moat Conference on Wed-Thu, UBS Houston Energy Bus-less Tour on Wed-Thu, Credit Suisse Chemical & Ag Science Conference on Thu, Imperial Capital Global Opportunities Conference on Thu, MKM Partners Entertainment, Leisure & Internet Conference on Thu, 5th Annual Summit Internal Audit on Thu-Fri, GTC 7th CNS Partnering & Deal-Making on Thu-Fri, Imperial Capital Global Opportunities Conference on Thu, Tokyo Game Show 2014 on Fri, and Zelman & Associates Housing Summit on Fri.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Kohl's (KSS +0.67%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Citigroup.
Rite Aid (RAD +3.59%) reported Q2 EPS of 13 cents, more than double consensus of 6 cents, but then lowered guidance on fiscal 2015 EPS view to 22 cents-33 cents, weaker than consensus of 34 cents.
DuPont (DD +5.20%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Neutral' at JPMorgan Chase.
ArcelorMittal (MT +2.14%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at BofA/Merrill Lynch.
Citigroup keeps its 'Buy' rating on FedEx (FDX +3.27%) and raises its price target on the stock to $180 from $170.
Monsanto (MON -0.20%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Stifel.
Peabody (BTU -1.94%) was downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Neutral' at Goldman Sachs.
IHS Inc. (IHS -0.56%) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $1.49, stronger than consensus of $1.44.
Clarcor (CLC -0.22%) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 83 cents, better than consensus of 78 cents, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2014 adjusted EPS to $2.92-$2.98, well above consensus of $2.82.
Credit Suisse initiated InterOil (IOC -0.96%) with an 'Outperform' and a $71 price target.
Pier 1 Imports (PIR +0.91%) slid over 9% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 EPS of 10 cents, weaker than consensus of 14 cents.
United Natural Foods (UNFI +0.68%) rose 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 EPS of 67 cents, higher than consensus of 65 cents, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2015 GAAP EPS to $2.88-$3.01, above consensus of $2.88.
Herman Miller (MLHR +1.61%) climbed 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 47 cents, right on consensus, although Q1 revenue of $509.7 million was better than consensus of $505.27 million.

MARKET COMMENTS

Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 +0.41%) this morning are up +800 points (+0.40%). The S&P 500 index on Wednesday posted a 1-week high and closed higher: S&P 500 +0.13%, Dow Jones +0.15%, Nasdaq +0.15%. Bullish factors included (1) benign inflation pressures after Aug CPI unexpectedly fell -0.2% m/m, weaker than expectations of unch m/m and the first decline in 16 months, and (2) reduced interest rate concerns after the Fed retained its “considerable time” interest rate guidance.
Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ14 -0.21%) this morning are down -8.5 ticks at a 1-1/2 month low. Dec 10-year T-note futures prices on Wednesday closed lower. Bearish factors included (1) the Fed’s hike in its year-end 2015 fed funds rate forecast to 1.375% from a Jun estimate of 1.125%, and (2) the rise in the Sep NAHB housing market index to the highest level in 8-3/4 years. Closes: TYZ4 -5.50, FVZ4 -5.25.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.20%) this morning is up +0.188 (+0.22%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0015 (+0.12%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.30 (+0.28%) at a fresh 6-year high. The dollar index on Wednesday closed higher. Bullish factors included (1) the Fed’s hike in its year-end 2015 fed funds rate forecast to 1.375% from a Jun estimate of 1.125%, and (2) weakness in the yen as USD/JPY soared to a 6-year high as the Fed raised its interest rate forecast while the market expects the BOJ to keep expanding stimulus. Closes: Dollar index +0.568 (+0.68%), EUR/USD -0.00946 (-0.70%), USD/JPY +1.242 (+1.16%).
Oct WTI crude oil (CLV14 +0.08%) this morning is down -13 cents (-0.14%) and Oct gasoline (RBV14 +0.19%) is up +0.0011 (+0.04%). Oct crude and gasoline prices on Wednesday settled mixed: CLV4 -0.82 (-0.86%), RBV4 +0.0062 (+0.24%). Bearish factors included (1) the unexpected +3.67 million bbl increase in weekly EIA crude inventories vs expectations for a -1.5 million bbl decline, and (2) the +2.6% w/w increase in U.S. crude production in the week ended Sep 12 to 8.838 million bpd, a 28-1/3 year high. Gasoline closed higher after the Fed pledge to keep interest rates low for a “considerable time” after QE3 ends.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR09/18/2014

US	0830 ET	Weekly initial unemployment claims expected -10,000 to 305,000, previous +11,000 to 315,000. Weekly continuing claims expected -21,000 to 2.466 million, previous +9,000 to 2.487 million.
	0830 ET	USDA weekly Export Sales.
	0830 ET	Aug housing starts expected -5.2% to 1.037 million, Jul +15.7% to 1.093 million. Aug building permits expected -1.6% to 1.040 million, Jul +8.6% to 1.057 million.
	0845 ET	Fed Chair Janet Yellen speaks to a conference in Washington D.C. via prerecorded video on The Importance of Asset Building for Low and Middle Income Households
	1000 ET	Sep Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index expected -5.0 to 23.0, Aug +4.1 to 28.0.
	1100 ET	Treasury announces amount of 2-year T-notes to be auctioned (previous $29 billion), 2-year floating-rate notes (previous $13 billion), 5-year T-notes (previous $35 billion and 7-year T-notes (previous $29 billion) to be auctioned Aug 23-25.
	1200 ET	Q2 FOF household net worth change, Q1 +$1.49 trillion.
	1300 ET	Treasury auctions $13 billion of 10-year TIPS.
JPN	0200 ET	Revised Japan Aug machine tool orders.
UK	0430 ET	UK Aug retail sales ex autos expected +0.3% m/m and +4.8% y/y, Jul +0.5% m/m and +3.4% y/y. Aug retail sales including autos expected +0.4% m/m and +4.0% y/y, Jul +0.1% m/m and +2.6% y/y.
	0600 ET	UK Sep CBI trends of total orders expected -2 to 9, Aug 11. Sep CBI trends selling prices expected unch at -1.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR09/18/2014

Company Name	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
IHS Inc	IHS US	6:00	Q3 2014 Earnings Release	Q3 2014	1.439
Rite Aid Corp	RAD US	7:00	Q2 2015 Earnings Release	Q2 2015	0.062
ConAgra Foods Inc	CAG US	7:30	Q1 2015 Earnings Release	Q1 2015	0.35
IHS Inc	IHS US	8:00	Q3 2014 Earnings Call	Q3 2014
Rite Aid Corp	RAD US	8:30	Q2 2015 Earnings Call	Q2 2015
Prologis Inc	PLD US	9:00	Investor Analyst Meeting	Y 2014
Continental Resources Inc/OK	CLR US	9:00	Investor & Analyst Day	Y 2014
ConAgra Foods Inc	CAG US	9:30	Q1 2015 Earnings Call	Q1 2015
NIKE Inc	NKE US	13:00	Annual General Meeting	Y 2014
Citigroup Inc	C US	14:00	U.S. Appeals Court Hears Arguments from Citigroup on Argentine Bonds
TIBCO Software Inc	TIBX US	16:30	Q3 2014 Earnings Call	Q3 2014
Oracle Corp	ORCL US	17:00	Q1 2015 Earnings Call	Q1 2015
Red Hat Inc	RHT US	17:00	Q2 2015 Earnings Call	Q2 2015
Oracle Corp	ORCL US	Aft-mkt	Q1 2015 Earnings Release	Q1 2015	0.639
Red Hat Inc	RHT US	Aft-mkt	Q2 2015 Earnings Release	Q2 2015	0.379
TIBCO Software Inc	TIBX US	Aft-mkt	Q3 2014 Earnings Release	Q3 2014	0.176
Equifax Inc	EFX US		Investor Meeting	Y 2014
John Wiley & Sons Inc	JW/A US		Annual General Meeting

BARCHART MORNING CALL 9/15

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Monday, September 15th, 2014View Older Reports

Everything you need to know about the markets in one free daily newsletter.

E-mail:

You will also receive a free subscription to the Barchart family of newsletters.

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 -0.09%) this morning are down -0.16% at a 3-week low and European stocks are down -0.07% on concern a slowdown of China's economy will undercut global economic prospects after China Aug industrial output rose at the slowest pace in 5-1/2 years. The Russian ruble slipped to a record low of 38.1016 per dollar on concern Russia's economy will slow further after the U.S. and EU expanded economic sanctions against Russia last Friday. Stocks recovered from their worst levels on increased M&A activity after Cognizant Technology Solutions bought TriZetto Corp. for $2.7 billion and after Danaher acquired Nobel Biocare Holding AG for $2.2 billion. Asian stocks closed lower: Japan closed for holiday, Hong Kong -0.97%, China -0.05%, Taiwan -0.06%, Australia -1.04%, Singapore -0.99%, South Korea -0.32%, India -0.90%. Commodity prices are mixed. Oct crude oil (CLV14 -1.09%) is down -0.82%. Oct gasoline (RBV14 -0.61%) is down -0.17%. Dec gold (GCZ14 +0.38%) is up +0.40%. Dec copper (HGZ14 -0.60%) is down -0.79%. Agriculture prices are weaker with Dec wheat down -1.00% at a fresh contract low. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.11%) is up +0.12%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.32%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY)is down -0.07%. Dec T-note prices (ZNZ14 +0.09%) are up +4 ticks.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said it sees "significant risks" to the global economic recovery and cut its 2014 U.S. GDP forecast to 2.1% from a May estimate of 2.6% and cut its 2014 Eurozone GDP forecast to 0.8% from a May forecast of 1.2%.
China Aug industrial production rose +6.9% y/y, less than expectations of +8.8% y/y and the smallest pace of increase in 5-1/2 years.
China Aug retail sales rose +11.9% y/y, less than expectations of +12.1% y/y and matched Apr's increase as the slowest pace in 5-1/2 years.
China Aug fixed asset investment growth rose +16.5% y/y, less than expectations of +16.9% y/y and the slowest pace of increase in 12-1/2 years.
UK Sep Rightmove house prices rose +0.9% m/m, the first increase in 3 months, and on an annual basis house prices rose +7.9% y/y, the most in 4 months.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

The market is expecting today’s Aug industrial production report to show an increase of +0.3%, adding to the +0.4% increase seen in July. Meanwhile, the market is expecting today’s Sep Empire manufacturing index to show a +1.31 point increase to 16.0, recovering some ground after Aug’s decline of -10.91 to 14.69 and remaining in relatively strong territory. There are no earnings reports today from the Russell 1000 companies.
Equity conferences this week include: Citi Investment Research Investor Meetings on Mon, Morgan Stanley Industrials Conference on Mon-Tue, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Consumer & Retail Conference on Tue, J.P. Morgan U.S. All Stars Conference on Tue, J.P. Morgan U.S. All Stars Conference on Tue, Morgan Stanley Marcellus-Utica Summit on Tue, RBC Capital Markets Financial Institutions Conference on Tue, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Media, Communications & Entertainment Conference on Tue-Wed, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Power & Gas Leaders Conference on Tue-Wed, Deutsche Bank Access Energy Conference on Tue-Wed, Credit Suisse Basic Materials Conference on Tue-Thu, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Healthcare Conference on Wed, Capital Link Global Commodities Energy & Freight Forum on Wed, Wolfe Research Power & Gas Leaders Conference on Wed-Thu, Morningstar Management Behind the Moat Conference on Wed-Thu, UBS Houston Energy Bus-less Tour on Wed-Thu, Credit Suisse Chemical & Ag Science Conference on Thu, Imperial Capital Global Opportunities Conference on Thu, MKM Partners Entertainment, Leisure & Internet Conference on Thu, 5th Annual Summit Internal Audit on Thu-Fri, GTC 7th CNS Partnering & Deal-Making on Thu-Fri, Imperial Capital Global Opportunities Conference on Thu, Tokyo Game Show 2014 on Fri, and Zelman & Associates Housing Summit on Fri.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH -0.62%) will acquire Trizetto for $2.7 billion in cash.
Barrick Gold (ABX -2.02%) was upgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Underweight' at HSBC.
Acuity Brands (AYI -0.03%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Goldman Sachs.
Cree (CREE -1.32%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Goldman Sachs.
Yahoo! (YHOO +3.93%) rose nearly 3% in pre-market trading after Alibaba, the Chinese e-commerce company in which Yahoo is the second-biggest shareholder, said it plans to increase the top end of its IPO price range to above $70 amid stong investor demand.
Chuy's (CHUY -0.66%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at KeyBanc.
Universal Health (UHS -1.36%) will replace Peabody Coal (BTU unch) in the S&P 500 as of the close of trading on Sep 19.
United Rentals (URI +0.43%) will replace Graham Holdings (GHC -0.38%) in the S&P 500 as of the close of trading on Sep 19.
HSBC (HSBC +0.55%) confirms it will pay the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) $550 million to settle the claims brought by FHFA in 2011 related to residential mortgage-backed securities that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac purchased from HSBC between 2005 and 2007.
P2 Capital Partners reported a 5.4% stake in Blackhawk (HAWK -0.18%) .

MARKET COMMENTS

Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 -0.09%) this morning are down -3.25 points (-0.16%) at a new 3-week low. The S&P 500 Index on Friday fell to a 3-week low and closed lower: S&P 500 -0.60%, Dow Jones -0.36%, Nasdaq -0.57%. The main bearish factor for stocks was long-liquidation pressures spurred by concern that recent strength in U.S. economic data may prompt the Fed to raise interest rates sooner than currently thought. Bullish factors included (1) the U.S. Aug retail sales report of +0.6% and +0.3% ex autos, right on expectations, and (2) the +2.1 increase in U.S. Sep University of Michigan consumer confidence to 84.6, better than expectations of +0.8 to 83.5 and the highest in 14 months.
Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ14 +0.09%) this morning are up +4 ticks. Dec 10-year T-note futures prices on Friday slid to a 1-1/2 month low. Bearish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected jump in U.S. Sep University of Michigan U.S. consumer confidence to a 14-month high, and (2) speculation the FOMC will be more hawkish at the Sep 16-17 FOMC meeting in order to prepare the markets for interest rate hikes. Closes: TYZ4 -16.50, FVZ4 -4.75.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.11%) this morning is up +0.102 (+0.12%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0042 (-0.32%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.07 (-0.07%). The dollar index on Friday closed lower. Bearish factors included (1) strength in EUR/USD after Eurozone Jul industrial production rose more than expected, and (2) pre-weekend profit-taking after the recent run-up in the dollar index to a 14-month high. Supportive factors for the dollar included (1) the rise in the Sep U.S. consumer confidence index to a 14-month high, and (2) weakness in the yen as USD/JPY climbed to a new 5-3/4 year high. Closes: Dollar index -0.058 (-0.07%), EUR/USD +0.0038 (+0.30%), USD/JPY +0.232 (+0.22%).
Oct WTI crude oil (CLV14 -1.09%) this morning is down -76 cents (-0.82%) and Oct gasoline (RBV14 -0.61%) is down -0.0042 (-0.17%). Oct crude and gasoline prices on Friday closed lower: CLV4 -0.56 (-0.60%), RBV4 -0.0053 (-0.21%). Bearish factors included (1) carry-over weakness from Thursday after the IEA cut its 2014 global oil demand forecast by -150,000 bpd to 92.6 million bpd and cut its 2015 global oil demand forecast by -165,000 bpd to 93.8 million bpd, and (2) concern that Europe’s economy may slow further after the EU and the U.S. both announced additional economic sanctions on Russia, and (3) the increase in Libyan oil production to 850,000 bpd as of Sep 11 from 400,000 bpd in July.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR09/15/2014

US	0830 ET	Sep Empire manufacturing index expected +1.31 to 16.00, Aug -10.91 to 14.69.
	0915 ET	Aug industrial production expected +0.3%, Jul +0.4%. Aug manufacturing production expected +0.2%, Jul +1.0%. Aug capacity utilization expected +0.1 to 79.3%, Jul +0.1 to 79.2%.
	1100 ET	USDA weekly grain export inspections.
	1600 ET	USDA weekly crop progress.
EUR	0500 ET	Eurozone Jul trade balance, Jun +16.8 billion euros (nsa).

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR09/15/2014

Company Name	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Aflac Inc	AFL US	20:00	Analyst Briefing - Tokyo	Y 2014
Salix Pharmaceuticals Ltd	SLXP US		PDUFA, budesonide rectal foam, distal ulcerative colitis
Yum! Brands Inc	YUM US		Investor & Analyst Conference - Day 1	Y 2014