Morning Call 8/22

Barchart Morning Call

Barchart.com - Tue Aug 22, 6:36AM CDT

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU17 +0.13%) this morning are up +0.07% and European stocks are up +0.47%, led by a rally in mining stocks, as Sep COMEX copper (HGU17 +0.70%) climbs +0.67% to a new 2-3/4 year nearest-futures high. Gains in European stocks were limited after a gauge of German investor confidence fell to a 10-month low. The German Aug ZEW survey expectations of economic growth fell -7.5 to 10.0, weaker than expectations of -2.5 to 15.0, amid concern that the diesel scandal at Volkswagen AG along with recent strength in EUR/USD will weigh on the German economy, Europe's largest. Asian stocks settled mostly higher: Japan -0.05%, Hong Kong +0.91%, China +0.10%, Taiwan +0.64%, Australia +0.42%, Singapore +0.52%, South Korea +0.39%, India +0.11%. China's Shanghai Composite erased early losses and rose to a 2-1/2 week high on optimism that Chinese insurance stocks and pharmaceutical companies will report better-than-expected quarterly earnings results. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index fell to a new 3-1/2 month low on a lack of support for stocks in the Nikkei Stock Index as the BOJ has said it will reduce investments in the Nikkei Stock Index and buy more exchange-traded funds tracking the Topix index.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.43%) is up +0.45%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.55% on the weaker-than-expected German Aug ZEW survey. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.32%.

Sep 10-year T-note prices (ZNU17 -0.16%) are down -5 ticks.

The German Aug ZEW survey expectations of economic growth fell -7.5 to 10.0, weaker than expectations of -2.5 to 15.0 and a 10-month low.

UK Jul public sector net borrowing unexpectedly fell -0.8 billion pounds, weaker than expectations of +0.3 billion pounds and the first decline in 5 months.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Jun FHFA house price index (expected +0.4% m/m, May +0.4% m/m), (2) Aug Richmond Fed manufacturing index (expected -3 to 11, Jul +3 to 14), (3) USDA Jul Cold Storage.

Notable Russell 1000 earnings reports today include: Toll Brothers (consensus $0.69), Coty (0.09), Medtronics (1.08), salesforce.com (0.32), Intuit (0.17).

U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: none.

Equity conferences this week: Bank of America Merrill Lynch Industrial, Energy and Infrastructure Conference on Tue, CFA Society of Minnesota Intellisight Conference on Tue-Wed, Healthcare Information & Management Systems Society Southeast Summit on Wed, Heikkinen Energy Conference on Wed, Raymond James SMID Cap Growth Conference on Wed, Southern California Investor Conference on Thu.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Alibaba (BABA +1.04%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Neutral' at Atlantic Equities LLP with a price target of $215.

VMware (VMW +0.77%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Deutsche Bank.

Tempur Sealy (TPX +0.39%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' a Stifel with a price target of $80.

Hain Celestial (HAIN +0.24%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Positive' at Susquehanna Financial.

Inversora Carso reported a 5.1% passive stake in PBF Logistics (PBFX -0.24%) .

Estee Lauder (EL +0.53%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Argus with a price target of $125.

BHP Billiton Ltd (BHP +1.26%) reported full-year underlying profit of $6.7 billion, weaker than consensus of $7.3 billion, and said it was pursuing options to exit onshore U.S. assets.

Nordson (NDSN +0.80%) sank 10% in after-hours trading after it forecast Q4 EPS of $1.18 to $1.32, well below consensus of $1.51.

Fabrinet (FN -0.65%) fell nearly 4% in after-hours trading after it forecast Q1 revenue of $356 million-$360 million, below consensus of $375.6 million.

Zayo Group Holdings (ZAYO -0.24%) dropped over 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted Ebitda of $310.8 million, below consensus of $314.7 million.

Premier Inc. (PINC -0.49%) slid over 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 50 cents, below consensus of 52 cents, and then said it sees full-year adjusted EPS of $1.98 to $2.09, weaker than consensus of $2.11.

Tarena International (TEDU +3.27%) lost over 3% in after-hours trading after it cut its full-year revenue forecast to 1.92 to 2-billion yuan from a May 22 estimate of 1.99 to 2.07 billion yuan.

Global Medical Reit (GMRE -1.75%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at D.A. Davidson.

MARKET COMMENTS

Sep S&P 500 E-mini stock futures (ESU17 +0.13%) this morning are up +1.75 points (+0.07%). Monday's closes: S&P 500 +0.12, Dow Jones +0.13%, Nasdaq -0.08%. The S&P 500 on Monday posted a 1-1/4 month low, but recovered its losses and closed slightly higher. Stocks were supported by strength in mining stocks after the price of copper rose +1.39% to a 2-3/4 year high. There was also optimism about the global economic outlook after the Bundesbank in its monthly report said, "the German economy may grow more strongly this year than was expected in June forecasts." Energy stocks were undercut by the -2.32% sell-off in crude oil prices.

Sep 10-year T-note prices (ZNU17 -0.16%) this morning are down -5 ticks. Monday's closes: TYU7 +3.00, FVU7 +2.25. Sep 10-year T-notes on Monday closed higher on the weaker-than-expected Jul Chicago Fed national activity index (-0.17 to -0.01 versus expectations of -0.03 to 0.10) and on the decline in inflation expectations after the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation rate tumbled to a 1-month low.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.43%) this morning is up +0.422 (+0.45%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0065 (-0.55%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.35 (+0.32%). Monday's closes: Dollar Index -0.339 (-0.36%), EUR/USD +0.0054 (+0.46%), USD/JPY -0.20 (-0.18%). The dollar index on Monday fell to a 1-week low and closed lower on the weaker-than-expected Jul Chicago Fed national activity index and on strength in EUR/USD after the Bundesbank's monthly report stated that "the German economy may grow more strongly this year than was expected in June forecasts."

Oct crude oil (CLV17 +0.04%) this morning is up +2 cents (+0.04%) and Oct gasoline (RBV17 +0.01%) is +0.0023 (+0.15%). Monday's closes: Oct WTI crude -1.13 (-2.22%), Oct gasoline -0.0370 (-2.41%). Oct crude oil and gasoline on Monday closed lower on the fall in the S&P 500 to a new 1-1/4 month high and on concern that the global oil glut will persist after last Wednesday's EIA data showed U.S. crude production rose to a 2-year high.

Metals prices this morning are mixed with Dec gold (GCZ17 -0.46%) -4.9 (-0.38%), Sep silver (SIU17 -0.26%) -0.015(-0.09%) and Sep copper (HGU17 +0.70%) +0.020 (+0.67%) at a new 2-3/4 nearest-futures high. Monday's closes: Dec gold +5.1 (+0.39%), Sep silver +0.015 (+0.09%), Sep copper +0.0410 (+1.39%). Metals on Monday closed higher with Sep copper at a new 2-3/4 year nearest-futures high. Metals prices were boosted by the fall in the dollar index to a 1-week low and by signs of tighter copper supplies after LME copper inventories fell -9,650 MT to a 1-1/2 month low of 261,700 MT.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR08/22/2017

		Tuesday, Aug 21
US	0900 ET	Jun FHFA house price index expected +0.4% m/m, May +0.4% m/m. Q2 house price purchase, Q1 +1.4% q/q.
	1000 ET	Aug Richmond Fed manufacturing index expected -3 to 11, Jul +3 to 14.
	1500 ET	USDA Jul Cold Storage.
		Wednesday, Aug 22
US	0700 ET	Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous +0.1% with purchase sub-index -1.5% and refi sub-index +1.6%.
	0905 ET	Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan speaks before the Permian Basin Petroleum Association Membership Luncheon in Midland, TX.
	0945 ET	Aug Markit manufacturing PMI expected +0.1 to 53.4, Jul +1.3 to 53.3. Aug Markit services PMI expected +0.2 to 54.9, Jul +0.5 to 54.7.
	1000 ET	Jul new home sales expected unch at 610,000, Jun +0.8% to 610,000.
	1030 ET	EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
	1300 ET	Treasury auctions $13 billion 2-year floating-rate notes.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR08/22/2017

Company	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Toll Brothers Inc	TOL US	Bef-mkt	Q3 2017 Earnings Release	Q3 17	0.687
Coty Inc	COTY US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2017 Earnings Release	Q4 17	0.091
Medtronic PLC	MDT US	06:45	Q1 2018 Earnings Release	Q1 18	1.084
Medtronic PLC	MDT US	08:00	Q1 2018 Earnings Call	Q1 18
Coty Inc	COTY US	08:00	Q4 2017 Earnings Call	Q4 17
Nordson Corp	NDSN US	08:30	Q3 2017 Earnings Call	Q3 17
Toll Brothers Inc	TOL US	11:00	Q3 2017 Earnings Call	Q3 17
Cadence Design Systems Inc	CDNS US		Roadshow
Cadence Design Systems Inc	CDNS US		Roadshow
Microchip Technology Inc	MCHP US	12:00	Annual General Meeting
salesforce.com Inc	CRM US	Aft-mkt	Q2 2018 Earnings Release	Q2 18	0.316
Intuit Inc	INTU US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2017 Earnings Release	Q4 17	0.168
Intuit Inc	INTU US	16:30	Q4 2017 Earnings Call	Q4 17
salesforce.com Inc	CRM US	17:00	Q2 2018 Earnings Call	Q2 18

MORNING CALL 4/20

MORNING CALL

Wednesday, April 20th, 2016View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

Jun E-mini S&Ps (ESM16 +0.18%) are unchanged as a nearly 2% decline in Intel in pre-market trading undercuts technology stocks. Also, energy producers are lower and weighing on the overall market as crude oil (CLM16 -1.48%) falls -1.77% in early trade after Kuwait oil workers ended their 3-day strike. Sings of increased M&A activity limited declines in equities after a consortium led by Apex Technology and PAG Asia Capital acquired Lexmark International for $3.6 billion. European stocks are up +0.23%, led by a rally in mining stocks, as both BHP Billiton Ltd. and Rio Tinto Group climbed 3% as the price of iron ore rose after BHP cut its iron ore production forecast for its Australian operations. Asian stocks settled mixed: Japan +0.19%, Hong Kong -0.93%, China -2.31%, Taiwan 01.38%, Australia +0.52%, Singapore -0.06%, South Korea -0.25%, India +0.11%. Chinese stocks tumbled on speculation of reduced stimulus from China's central bank after PBOC research bureau chief economist Ma Jun said that future policy operations will pay attention to heading off macroeconomic risks. Japan’s Nikkei Stock Index rallied to a 3-week high after Japanese trade data showed Japan exports and imports fell less than expected last month.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.05%) is up +0.10%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.11%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.02%.

Jun T-note prices (ZNM16 -0.01%) are up +1 tick.

PBOC research bureau chief economist Ma Jun said that future policy operations, while observing the need to continue to support growth, will also pay attention to heading off macroeconomic risks, especially an over-expansion of corporate leverage. This suggests that the PBOC is satisfied with the results of its current easing measures and may not add to them as that risks creating bubbles in financial markets.

German Mar PPI was unch m/m and fell -3.1% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m and -2.9% y/y, with the -3.1% y/y fall the largest year-on-year decline in 6 years.

Japan’s Mar trade balance was in surplus by 755.0 billion yen, narrower than expectations of a 834.6-billion-yen surplus. Mar exports fell -6.8% y/y, less than expectations of -7.0% y/y and Mar imports fell -14.9% y/y, a smaller decline than expectations of -16.6% y/y.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) weekly MBA mortgage applications (previous +10.0% with purchase sub-index +8.4% and refi sub-index +11.3%), and (2) Mar existing home sales (expected +3.9% to 5.28 million, Feb -7.1% to 5.08 million).

There are 25 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today with notable reports including: American Express (consensus $1.33), Abbott Labs (0.39), Coca-Cola (0.44), Kinder Morgan (0.19), Citrix (0.92), Newmont Mining (0.18), Yum Brands (0.83).

U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: American Rental Associates (ARA).

Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: American Academy Of Neurology Meeting on Mon-Wed, American Association for Cancer Research Meeting on Mon-Wed, Rx Sample Management and logistics Summit on Tue-Wed.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Intel (INTC -0.16%) lost nearly 2% in pre-market trading after it said Q2 net revenue will be about $13.5 billion, below consensus of $14.2 billion, and said it will cut 12,000 jobs, or 11% of its workforce.

Halliburton (HAL +2.69%) declined 1% in pre-market trading as the price of crude oil is down -1.77% in early trade.

Lexmark International (LXK +0.99%) jumped over 10% in pre-market-trading after it was acquired by a consortium led by Apex Technology and PAG Asia Capital for $3.6 billion.

Boeing (BA +0.54%) slipped 2% in pre-market trading after Bank of America downgraded it to 'Underperform' from 'Neutral.'

Yahoo! (YHOO -0.52%) climbed over 1% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 adjusted Ebitda of $147 million, above consensus of $115.9 million.

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG -0.52%) gained nearly 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $4.42, better than consensus of $4.33.

Global Payments (GPN -0.42%) rose over 1% in after-hours trading when it was announced that it will replace GameStop GME in the S&P 500 at the end of trading on Friday, April 22.

Discover Financial Services (DFS +1.15%) climbed 4% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 EPS of $1.35, better than consensus of $1.29.

VMware (VMW -0.44%) jumped over 10% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 86 cents, higher than consensus of 84 cents, and said it authorized a $1.2 billion stock buyback program.

Woodward (WWD +0.04%) slid over 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 65 cents, below consensus of 66 cents.

Interactive Brokers Group (IBKR -0.55%) rose nearly 4% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 comprehensive EPS of 60 cents, well above consensus of 47 cents.

Manhattan Associates (MANH +0.51%) gained over 7% in after-hours trading after it raised guidance on fiscal 2016 adjusted EPS to $1.73-$1.76 from a February 2 estimate of $1.69-$1.72, above consensus of $1.71.

CalAmp (CAMP +1.69%) fell over 7% in after-hours trading after it said it sees fiscal 2017 adjusted EPS from continuing operations of $1.15-$1.35, below consensus of $1.43.

MARKET COMMENTS

June E-mini S&Ps (ESM16 +0.18%) this morning are unchanged. Tuesday's closes: S&P 500 +0.31%, Dow Jones +0.27%, Nasdaq -0.62%. The S&P 500 on Tuesday rose to a 4-1/2 month high and closed higher on strength in energy-producer stocks as crude oil rallied 3%, on a rally in commodity producers after silver surged +4.4% to a 10-1/2 month high, and on a decent start to Q1 corporate earnings season. Stock prices were undercut by the-8.8% decline in U.S. Mar housing starts to a 5-month low of 1.089 million, weaker than expectations of -1.1% to 1.166 million.

June 10-year T-note prices (ZNM16 -0.01%) this morning are up +1 tick. Tuesday's closes: TYM6 -4.50, FVM6 -4.00. Jun T-notes on Tuesday closed lower on reduced safe-haven demand for T-notes with the rally in he S&P 500 to a 4-1/2 month high, on the rise in the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation expectations rate to a 2-week high, and on hawkish comments from Boston Fed President Rosengren who said "we will be raising rates faster than what's reflected in the financial markets."

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.05%) this morning is up +0.096 (+0.10%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0012 (+0.11%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.02 (+0.02%). Tuesday's closes: Dollar Index -0.514 (-0.54%), EUR/USD +0.0045 (+0.40%), USD/JPY +0.39 (+0.36%). The dollar index on Tuesday closed lower on the weaker-than-expected U.S. Mar housing starts report and on strength in EUR/USD after the German Apr ZEW expectations index rose more than expected to a 4-month high.

June WTI crude oil (CLM16 -1.48%) is down -75 cents (-1.77%). June gasoline (RBM16 -0.66%) is down -0.0107 (-0.71%). Tuesday's closes: CLM6 +1.28 (+3.11%), RBM6 +0.0428 (+2.94%). Jun crude oil and gasoline on Tuesday settled higher on a weaker dollar, the third day of the Kuwaiti oil workers strike that has slashed Kuwait oil production by 50%, and the rally in the S&P 500 to a 4-1/2 month high.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR04/20/2016

US	0700 ET	Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous +10.0% with purchase sub-index +8.4% and refi sub-index +11.3%.
	1000 ET	Mar existing home sales expected +3.9% to 5.28 million, Feb -7.1% to 5.08 million.
	1030 ET	EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
JPN	0200 ET	Revised Japan Mar machine tool orders.
GER	0200 ET	German Mar PPI expected +0.2% m/m and -2.9% y/y, Feb -0.5% m/m and -3.0% y/y.
UK	0430 ET	UK Mar jobless claims change expected -10,000, Feb -18,000. Mar claimant count rate expected unch at 2.1%.
	0430 ET	UK Feb avg weekly earnings expected +2.3% 3-mon avg y/y, Jan +2.1% 3-mon avg y/y. Feb avg weekly earnings ex-bonus expected +2.1% 3-mon avg y/y, Jan +2.2% 3-mon avg y/y.
	0430 ET	UK ILO unemployment rate expected +5.1% 3-months through Feb, previous 5.1% 3-months through Jan.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR04/20/2016

Company	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Abbott Laboratories	ABT US	Bef-mkt	Q1 2016 Earnings Release	Q1 2016	0.393
Coca-Cola Co/The	KO US	Bef-mkt	Q1 2016 Earnings Release	Q1 2016	0.444
Textron Inc	TXT US	Bef-mkt	Q1 2016 Earnings Release	Q1 2016	0.516
Huntington Bancshares Inc/OH	HBAN US	Bef-mkt	Q1 2016 Earnings Release	Q1 2016	0.201
US Bancorp	USB US	Bef-mkt	Q1 2016 Earnings Release	Q1 2016	0.758
Amphenol Corp	APH US	Bef-mkt	Q1 2016 Earnings Release	Q1 2016	0.565
TE Connectivity Ltd	TEL US	Bef-mkt	Q2 2016 Earnings Release	Q2 2016	0.891
Nielsen Holdings PLC	NLSN US	Bef-mkt	Q1 2016 Earnings Release	Q1 2016	0.501
EMC Corp/MA	EMC US	7:00	Q1 2016 Earnings Release	Q1 2016	0.334
St Jude Medical Inc	STJ US	7:15	Q1 2016 Earnings Release	Q1 2016	0.885
EQT Corp	EQT US	8:00	Annual General Meeting	Y 2016
Illinois Tool Works Inc	ITW US	8:00	Q1 2016 Earnings Release	Q1 2016	1.259
Textron Inc	TXT US	8:00	Q1 2016 Earnings Call	Q1 2016
St Jude Medical Inc	STJ US	8:00	Q1 2016 Earnings Call	Q1 2016
Navient Corp	NAVI US	8:00	Q1 2016 Earnings Call	Q1 2016
Nielsen Holdings PLC	NLSN US	8:00	Q1 2016 Earnings Call	Q1 2016
EMC Corp/MA	EMC US	8:30	Q1 2016 Earnings Call	Q1 2016
TE Connectivity Ltd	TEL US	8:30	Q2 2016 Earnings Call	Q2 2016
Abbott Laboratories	ABT US	9:00	Q1 2016 Earnings Call	Q1 2016
Coca-Cola Co/The	KO US	9:00	Q1 2016 Earnings Call	Q1 2016
Huntington Bancshares Inc/OH	HBAN US	9:00	Q1 2016 Earnings Call	Q1 2016
US Bancorp	USB US	9:00	Q1 2016 Earnings Call	Q1 2016
Stanley Black & Decker Inc	SWK US	9:30	Annual General Meeting
Illinois Tool Works Inc	ITW US	10:00	Q1 2016 Earnings Call	Q1 2016
SanDisk Corp	SNDK US	10:00	Webinar - GleSYS success story
Newmont Mining Corp	NEM US	11:00	Annual General Meeting	Y 2016
Linear Technology Corp	LLTC US	11:30	Q3 2016 Earnings Call	Q3 2016
Amphenol Corp	APH US	13:00	Q1 2016 Earnings Call	Q1 2016
Stryker Corp	SYK US	16:00	Q1 2016 Earnings Release	Q1 2016	1.202
F5 Networks Inc	FFIV US	16:00	Q2 2016 Earnings Release	Q2 2016	1.627
Kinder Morgan Inc/DE	KMI US	16:00	Q1 2016 Earnings Release	Q1 2016	0.187
Tractor Supply Co	TSCO US	16:01	Q1 2016 Earnings Release	Q1 2016	0.464
Mattel Inc	MAT US	16:05	Q1 2016 Earnings Release	Q1 2016	-0.074
Citrix Systems Inc	CTXS US	16:05	Q1 2016 Earnings Release	Q1 2016	0.924
Stryker Corp	SYK US	16:30	Q1 2016 Earnings Call	Q1 2016
F5 Networks Inc	FFIV US	16:30	Q2 2016 Earnings Call	Q2 2016
Kinder Morgan Inc/DE	KMI US	16:30	Q1 2016 Earnings Call	Q1 2016
QUALCOMM Inc	QCOM US	16:45	Q2 2016 Earnings Call	Q2 2016
Citrix Systems Inc	CTXS US	16:45	Q1 2016 Earnings Call	Q1 2016
American Express Co	AXP US	17:00	Q1 2016 Earnings Call	Q1 2016
Danaher Corp	DHR US	17:00	ITC Final Decision Due in Instradent vs. Danaher Corp. Patent Case
Mattel Inc	MAT US	17:00	Q1 2016 Earnings Call	Q1 2016
Lam Research Corp	LRCX US	17:00	Q3 2016 Earnings Call	Q3 2016
Tractor Supply Co	TSCO US	17:00	Q1 2016 Earnings Call	Q1 2016
American Express Co	AXP US	Aft-mkt	Q1 2016 Earnings Release	Q1 2016	1.331
Newmont Mining Corp	NEM US	Aft-mkt	Q1 2016 Earnings Release	Q1 2016	0.182
Lam Research Corp	LRCX US	Aft-mkt	Q3 2016 Earnings Release	Q3 2016	1.087
QUALCOMM Inc	QCOM US	Aft-mkt	Q2 2016 Earnings Release	Q2 2016	0.962
SL Green Realty Corp	SLG US	Aft-mkt	Q1 2016 Earnings Release	Q1 2016	1.657
Yum! Brands Inc	YUM US	Aft-mkt	Q1 2016 Earnings Release	Q1 2016	0.83
United Rentals Inc	URI US	Aft-mkt	Q1 2016 Earnings Release	Q1 2016	1.201
United Continental Holdings Inc	UAL US	Aft-mkt	Q1 2016 Earnings Release	Q1 2016	1.18
CR Bard Inc	BCR US		Annual General Meeting
Sherwin-Williams Co/The	SHW US		Annual General Meeting

BARCHART MORNING CALL 9/1

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Tuesday, September 1st, 2015View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

September E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 -1.96%) are down sharply by -2.13% and European stocks are down -2.02% on concern the slowdown in China is deepening. Global stock and commodity markets all fell after a gauge of Chinese manufacturing activity last month contracted at the fastest pace in 3 years. European stocks also fell after the Eurozone Aug Markit manufacturing PMI was revised lower, but stock prices recovered from their worst levels after the Eurozone Jul unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to the lowest in 3-1/2 years. Asian stocks closed lower: Japan -3.84%, Hong Kong -2.24%, China -1.23%, Taiwan -1.92%, Australia -2.12%, Singapore -1.32%, South Korea -1.40%, India -2.23%. Emerging market stocks and currencies all declined after the slowdown in Chinese manufacturing activity intensified, although large-capitalization stocks in China's Shanghai Composite rebounded from their lows in late trading on signs of government intervention. Over each of the past four session, government-backed-funds have been seen buying stocks in the last hour of trading as China tries to stabilize the market before a WWII victory parade on Thursday. China's financial markets will be closed on Thursday and Friday to commemorate the event.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.27%) is down -0.32%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.48%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.93% as the slide in global stocks boosts the safe-haven demand for the yen.
Dec T-note prices (ZNZ15 +0.25%) are up +10.5 ticks on a flight to safety.
The China Aug manufacturing PMI fell -0.3 to 49.7 as expected, but still was the steepest pace of contraction in 3 years.
The Eurozone Aug Markit manufacturing PMI was revised lower to 52.3 from the originally reported 52.4.
The Eurozone Jul unemployment rate unexpectedly fell -0.2 to 10.9%, better than expectations of unch at 11.1% and the lowest in 3-1/2 years.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) July construction spending (expected +0.6% m/m, Jun +0.1% m/m), (2) Aug ISM manufacturing index (expected -0.2 to 52.5, Jul -0.8 to 52.7), (3) final-Aug Markit manufacturing PMI (expected unrevised at 52.9, prelim-Aug -0.9 to 52.9), (4) Aug total vehicle sales (expected 17.30 million, Jul 17.46 million).
There are 3 of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: Donaldson (consensus $0.42), Dollar Tree (0.62), H&R Block (-0.40).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today include: none.
Equity conferences this week include: European Society of Cardiology Meeting on Mon-Wed, Longbow Research Industrial Manufacturing & Technology Investor Conference on Tue, Simmons Gleneagles Energy Conference on Tue-Wed, KeyBanc Capital Markets Basic Materials and Packaging Conference on Wed, Global Hunter Securities Industrials Conference on Thu.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Freeport McMoRan (FCX +1.33%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Citi.
Donaldson (DCI -0.82%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 45 cents, better than consensus of 42 cents.
Constellation Brands (STZ +0.05%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Underperform' at CLSA.
McCormick (MKC -0.80%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at BB&T with a price target of $99.
BB&T upgraded Cal-Maine Foods (CALM +5.71%) to 'Buy' with a $62 price target.
American Airlines (AAL +0.93%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Deutsche Bank.
Endo (ENDP -2.16%) was downgraded to 'Equal Weight' from 'Overweight' at Morgan Stanley.
Scientific Games (SGMS -5.16%) was upgraded to 'Hold' from 'Sell' at Deutsche Bank.
VMware (VMW +2.06%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Neutral' at Baird.
Barron's says in its 'Barron's Take' column Berkshire Hathaway's stake in Phillips 66 (PSX +2.38%) drove shares higher and the stock could continue to rise.
Glenhill Advisors reported a 5.3% stake in Allscripts (MDRX -0.22%) .
Adage Capital reported a 5.56% stake in Olin Corp (OLN +0.86%) .
Samuel Zell reported a 5.6% stake in Anixter (AXE +2.50%) .
SunEdison (SUNE +0.97%) rose over 4% in after-hours trading after Point72 reported a 5.1% passive stake in the company.
Trevena (TRVN -0.66%) surged over 30% in after-hours trading after the Phase 2b study of its TRV130 drug achieved its primary endpoint.

MARKET COMMENTS

Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 -1.96%) this morning are down sharply by -42.00 points (-2.13%). Monday's closes: S&P 500 -0.84%, Dow Jones -0.69%, Nasdaq -1.26%. The S&P 500 on Monday closed lower on the -0.82% slide in the China Shanghai Composite and on the -0.3 point decline in the Aug Chicago PMI to 54.4, weaker than expectations of -0.2 to 54.5. Energy producer stocks strengthened as oil prices rallied sharply for the third session to post a new 1-month high.
Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ15 +0.25%) this morning are up +10.5 ticks. Monday's closes: TYZ5 -4.50, FVZ5 -4.00. Dec 10-year T-note prices on Monday posted a 1-week low and closed lower on the slide in German bund prices to a 6-week low (after the Eurozone Aug core CPI rose +1.0% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.9% y/y) and on hawkish weekend comments from Fed Vice Chair Fischer suggesting that he favors raising interest rates sooner rather than later when he said that that there's "good reason" to believe that inflation is poised to move higher. T-notes found underlying support on the weaker-than-expected Aug Chicago PMI and Aug Dallas Fed manufacturing activity report and on safe-haven demand with the sell-off in stocks.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.27%) this morning is down -0.307 (-0.32%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0054 (+0.48%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -1.13 (-0.93%). Monday's closes: Dollar Index -0.282 (-0.29%), EUR/USD +0.00283 (+0.25%), USD/JPY -0.496 (-0.41%). The dollar index on Monday closed lower on (1) the larger-than-expected declines in the Aug Chicago PMI index and the Aug Dallas Fed manufacturing activity index, and (2) strength in EUR/USD after the Eurozone Aug CPI was stronger than expected and dampened speculation of additional ECB stimulus. The dollar found underyling support on the comments from Fed Vice Chair Fischer who left open the door for a Fed rate hike in Sep when he said that there's "good reason" to believe that inflation is poised to move higher.
Oct crude oil (CLV15 -1.91%) this morning is down -$1.10 a barrel (-2.24%) and Oct gasoline (RBV15 -2.94%) is down -0.0457 (-3.05%). Monday's closes: CLV5 +3.98 (+8.80%), RBV5 +0.0699 (+5.00%). Oct crude oil and gasoline on Monday closed sharply higher with Oct crude at a 1-month high and Oct gasoline at a 2-week high. Bullish factors included (1) the weaker dollar, (2) the IEA's downward revision in its U.S. crude production estimate for the first half of 2015 to 9.4 million bpd from a previous estimate of 9.53 million bpd, and (3) OPEC's comment in its monthly magazine that it is ready to talk to other crude producers outside of OPEC in order to achieve "fair prices."

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR09/01/2015

US	0945 ET	Final-Aug Markit manufacturing PMI expected unrevised at 52.9, prelim-Aug -0.9 to 52.9.
	1000 ET	Jul construction spending expected +0.6% m/m, Jun +0.1% m/m.
	1000 ET	Aug ISM manufacturing index expected -0.2 to 52.5, Jul -0.8 to 52.7. Aug ISM new orders, Jul +0.5 to 56.5. Aug ISM employment, Jul -2.8 to 52.7. Aug ISM prices paid expected -5.0 to 39.0, Jul -5.5 to 44.0.
	n/a	Aug total vehicle sales expected 17.30 million, Jul 17.46 million. Aug domestic vehicle sales expected 13.70 million, Jul 13.92 million.
JPN	0100 ET	Japan Aug vehicle sales, Jul -1.3% y/y.
GER	0355 ET	German Aug unemployment change expected -4,000, Jul +9,000. Aug unemployment rate expected unch at 6.4%.
	0355 ET	Revised German Aug Markit/BME manufacturing PMI, previous +1.4 to 53.2.
EUR	0400 ET	Revised Eurozone Aug Market manufacturing PMI, previous unch at 52.4.
	0500 ET	Eurozone Jul unemployment rate expected unch at 11.1%.
UK	0430 ET	UK Jul net consumer credit expected +1.2 billion pounds, Jun +1.2 billion pounds.
	0430 ET	UK Jul mortgage approvals expected 68,100, Jun 66,600.
	0430 ET	UK Jul M4 money supply, Jun -0.5% m/m and -0.3% y/y.
	0430 ET	UK Aug Markit manufacturing PMI expected +0.1 to 52.0, Jul 51.9.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR09/01/2015

Company	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Donaldson Co Inc	DCI US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	0.418
Dollar Tree Inc	DLTR US	Bef-mkt	Q2 2016 Earnings Release	Q2 2016	0.62
Keysight Technologies Inc	KEYS US	8:30	Analyst and Investor Day	Y 2015
Dollar Tree Inc	DLTR US	9:00	Q2 2016 Earnings Call	Q2 2016
Ford Motor Co	F US	9:15	August 2015 Sales and Revenue Release	2015
Donaldson Co Inc	DCI US	10:00	Q4 2015 Earnings Call	Q4 2015
Ford Motor Co	F US	10:00	August 2015 Sales and Revenue Call	2015
H&R Block Inc	HRB US	16:30	Q1 2016 Earnings Call	Q1 2016
H&R Block Inc	HRB US	Aft-mkt	Q1 2016 Earnings Release	Q1 2016	-0.397