Barchart Morning Call 12/17

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Tuesday, December 17th, 2013View Older Reports

Everything you need to know about the markets in one free daily newsletter.

E-mail:

You will also receive a free subscription to the Barchart family of newsletters.

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

March E-mini S&Ps (ESH14 unch) this morning are down -0.04% and European equities are down -0.52% ahead of the start of the 2-day FOMC meeting today where expectations are for the Fed to maintain its $85 billion pace of monthly bond purchases. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +0.83%, Hong Kong -0.20%, China -0.49%, Taiwan +0.47%, Australia +0.27%, Singapore +0.45%, South Korea +0.32%, India -0.23%. European stocks shrugged off the increase in German investor confidence for a fifth month after the Dec ZEW survey of expectations for economic growth soared to a 7-1/2 year high. Commodity prices are mostly lower. Jan crude oil (CLF14 -0.28%) is down -0.24%. Jan gasoline (RBF14 -0.21%) is down -0.23%. Feb gold (GCG14 -0.48%) is down -0.55%. March copper (HGH14 -0.17%) is down -0.06% as it fell back from a 1-3/4 month high that was made in overnight trade after copper stockpiles available for withdrawal from LME-licensed warehouses tumbled to a 5-year low of 130,825 MT. Agriculture and livestock prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.05%) is up +0.03%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.09%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.05%. March T-note prices (ZNH14 +0.13%) are up +4.5 ticks.
The German Dec ZEW survey expectations of economic growth jumped +7.4 to 62.0, much stronger than expectations of +0.4 to 55.0 and the highest level in 7-1/2 years. The Dec ZEW survey current situation rose +3.7 to 32.4, better than expectations of +1.2 to 29.9 and the best level in 1-1/2 years.
Eurozone Nov CPI fell -0.1% m/m and was left unrevised at +0.9% y/y, while core Nov CPI was revised down to a +0.9% y/y increase from the originally reported +1.0% y/y gain.
Eurozone Nov new car registrations rose +1.2%, the third consecutive monthly increase which is the most in 4 years.
UK Dec CBI trends full volume of total orders rose to 12, better than expectations of no change at 11 and the highest in 18-3/4 years. Dec CBI trends of selling prices rose to 11, stronger than expectations of no change at 5 and the strongest pace of increase in 10-months.
UK Nov CPI rose +0.1% m/m and +2.1% y/y, less than expectations of +0.2% m/m and +2.2% y/y, with the +2.1% y/y increase the slowest annual gain in 4-years.
The final Japan Nov machine tool orders were left unrevised at +15.4% y/y, the biggest increase in 23-months.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Today’s Nov CPI is expected to strengthen a bit to +1.3% y/y from +1.0% in October. Meanwhile, the Nov core CPI is expected to be unchanged from Oct at +1.7% y/y. Today’s Dec NAHB housing market index is expected to show a +1 point increase to 55 following the November report of unchanged 54. Today’s Q3 current account deficit is expected to widen slightly to -$100.2 billion from -$98.9 billion in Q2. The FOMC today begins its 2-day meeting that has a chance of producing the Fed's initial QE3 tapering move. The Treasury today will sell $32 billion of 2-year T-notes. There are three of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: FactSet (consensus $1.22), Jabil Circuit (0.54), VeriFone (0.26). Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Citi Group Connected Car & Telematics Mini-Conference on Tuesday.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Adobe (ADBE -3.93%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Argus.
Honeywell (HON +0.88%) lowered guidance on fiscal 2014 EPS to $5.35-$5.55, at the lower end of consensus of $5.55.
AT&T (T +0.89%) will sell Connecticut wireline operations to Frontier (FTR -0.90%) for $2 billion.
Facebook (FB +0.92%) was upgraded to 'Positive' from 'Neutral' at Susquehanna.
Public Storage (PSA +0.98%) was downgraded to 'Underperform' from 'Market Perform' at BMO Capital.
Medtronic (MDT +0.81%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Goldman.
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ +0.49%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Neutral' at JPMorgan.
Western Digital (WDC +3.30%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Neutral' at JPMorgan with a price target of $100.
Citigroup keeps its 'Buy' rating on Yahoo! (YHOO unch) and raised its price target on the stock to $46 from $39.
Huntington Ingalls (HII +1.73%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Deutsche Bank who also raised their price target on the stock to $100 from $78.
Plains All American (PAA -0.29%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Deutsche Bank who also lowered their price target on the stock to $55 fom $66.
Williams (WMB +3.15%) climbed over 2% in after-hours trading after Corvex disclosed a 5.28% stake in Williams.
KKR Financial (KFN -0.84%) surged over 30% in after-hours trading after it was acquired by KKR (KKR +0.40%) for $2.6 billion.
Boeing (BA +0.67%) rose 3% in after-hours trading after it raised its quarterly dividend by 50% to 73 cents per share and authorized a $10 billion share repurchase plan.

MARKET COMMENTS

Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH14 unch) this morning are little changed, down -0.75 of a point (-0.04%). The S&P 500 index on Monday closed higher on hopes that the stronger-than-expected economic data means the economy will keep on rolling even after the Fed starts to taper QE3. U.S. Nov industrial production rose +1.1% m/m, greater than expectations of +0.6% m/m and the biggest increase in a year. Strength in stocks was limited by Chinese growth concerns after the China Dec HSBC/Markit flash manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell -0.3 to a 3-month low of 50.5, weaker than expectations of +0.1 to 50.9. Closes: S&P 500 +0.63%, Dow Jones +0.82%, Nasdaq 100 +0.56%.
Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH14 +0.13%) this morning are up +4.5 ticks. Mar T-notes on Monday closed little changed as strength in stocks offset Chinese growth concerns. A positive for T-note prices was the larger-than-expected upward revision in U.S. Q3 non-farm productivity to 3.0%, the best level in 3-3/4 years and a sign that inflation may remain subdued. Gains in T-notes were limited after Nov industrial production rose sharply by +1.1%. Closes: TYH4 +0.50, FVH4 -0.25.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.05%) this morning is up +0.026 (+0.03%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0012 (-0.09%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.05 (-0.05%). The dollar index on Monday closed lower. EUR/USD rose after Eurozone Dec PMI manufacturing expanded at the fastest pace in 2-1/2 years and USD/JPY fell back as the yen strengthened on speculation the BOJ may not expand its stimulus measures after the Japan Q4 Tankan business conditions of large manufacturers rose to 16, the highest level in 7 years. Closes: Dollar index -0.140 (-0.17%), EUR/USD +0.00179 (+0.13%), USD/JPY -0.197 (-0.19%).
Jan WTI crude oil (CLF14 -0.28%) this morning is down -23 cents (-0.24%) and Jan gasoline (RBF14 -0.21%) is down -0.0060 (-0.23%). Jan crude oil and gasoline prices on Monday closed higher. Jan crude rebounded from a 2-week low and closed higher on bullish factors that included (1) the +1.1% m/m increase in U.S. Nov industrial production, the biggest increase in a year and a sign of economic growth and energy demand, and (2) reduced oil output in Libya after Libyan rebels refused to hand over three oil ports to the government that have been shut since July and have cut Libyan Nov oil production to 210,000 barrels a day, the least since 2011. Closes: CLF4 +0.88 (+0.91%), RBF4 +0.0144 (+0.55%).

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR12/17/2013

US	0830 ET	Nov CPI expected +0.1% m/m and +1.3% y/y, Oct -0.1% m/m and +1.0% y/y. Nov CPI ex food & energy expected +0.1% m/m and +1.7% y/y, Oct +0.1% m/m and +1.7% y/y.
	0830 ET	Q3 current account balance expected -$100.2 billion, Q2 -$98.9 billion.
	1000 ET	Dec NAHB housing market index expected +1 to 55, Nov unch at 54.
	1300 ET	Treasury auctions $32 billion 2-year T-notes.
	1630 ET	API weekly U.S. oil statistics.
	n/a	FOMC begins 2-day policy meeting.
JPN	0100 ET	Revised Japan Nov machine tool orders.
	1850 ET	Japan Nov trade balance expected -1.351 trillion yen, Oct -1.092 trillion yen. Nov exports expected +18.0% y/y, Oct +18.6% y/y. Nov imports expected +21.4% y/y, Oct +26.2% y/y.
EUR	0200 ET	Eurozone Nov new car registrations, Oct +4.7%.
	0500 ET	Eurozone Q3 labor costs, Q2 +0.9% y/y.
	0500 ET	Revised Eurozone Nov CPI, previous -0.1% m/m and +0.9% y/y. Revised Nov CPI core, previous +1.0% y/y.
UK	0430 ET	UK Nov PPI input prices expected -0.5% m/m and -1.0% y/y, Oct -0.6% m/m and -0.3% y/y.
	0430 ET	UK Nov PPI output prices expected unch m/m and +0.9% y/y, Oct -0.3% m/m and +0.8% y/y. Nov output core prices expected unch m/m and +0.9% y/y, Oct +0.1% m/m and +0.9% y/y.
	0430 ET	UK Nov CPI expected +0.2% m/m and +2.2% y/y, Oct +0.1% m/m and +2.2% y/y. Nov core CPI expected +1.8% y/y, Oct +1.7% y/y.
	0430 ET	UK Nov RPI expected +0.1% m/m and +2.7% y/y, Oct unch m/m and +2.6% y/y. Nov RPI ex mortgage interest payments expected +2.7% y/y, Oct +2.7% y/y.
	0600 ET	UK Dec CBI trends total orders expected unch at 11, Nov 11. Dec CBI trends selling prices expected unch at 5, Nov 5.
GER	0500 ET	German Dec ZEW survey expectations expected +0.4 to 55.0, Nov 54.6. Dec ZEW current situation expected +1.2 to 29.9, Nov 28.7.
CHI	2030 ET	China Nov property prices.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR12/17/2013

Company Name	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
FactSet Research Systems Inc	FDS US	Bef-mkt	Q1 2014 Earnings Release	Q1 2014	1.223
Weyerhaeuser Co	WY US	8:30	Investor Meeting	Y 2013
AGCO Corp	AGCO US	8:30	Analyst Meeting	Y 2013
Pentair Ltd	PNR US	8:30	FY 2014 Guidance Call	Y 2014
Honeywell International Inc	HON US	9:00	FY 2014 Guidance Call	Y 2014
Noble Energy Inc	NBL US	9:00	Analyst Day	Y 2013
Teleflex Inc	TFX US	9:00	Investor and Analyst Day	Y 2013
Jabil Circuit Inc	JBL US	Aft-mkt	Q1 2014 Earnings Release	Q1 2014	0.543
VeriFone Systems Inc	PAY US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2013 Earnings Release	Q4 2013	0.257

Barchart Morning Call 7/27

Barchart Morning Call

BC - 23 mins ago

Overnight Developments

• Sep E-mini S&Ps this morning are slightly higher by +0.24% on continued optimism that the ECB appears ready to restart its bond buying program, although the Bundesbank today restated its opposition to the program. European stocks are trading mildly higher by +0.21%. Commodity prices are trading up +0.58% on average with crude oil up +0.34%, gold up +0.39%, copper up +1.06%, and agricultural prices trading mostly higher. The dollar index is trading slightly lower while EUR/USD is up +0.17%. Sep 10-year T-notes are down 7.5 ticks.
• Asian stocks today closed higher on support from Thursday's sharp rally in the U.S. stock market: Japan +1.46%, Hong Kong +2.02%, china +0.07%, Taiwan +2.21%, Australia +1.50%, Singapore -0.20%, South Korea +2.93%, India +1.20%, Turkey +0.06%.
• France's Le Monde today reported that that ECB is preparing to restart its Securities Market Program and start buying bonds again of troubled countries such as Spain and Italy. That will be followed by bond purchases in the secondary market by the Eurozone's bailout facilities. However, the Bundesbank's spokesman today said that restarting the ECB's bond buying program is not the best way to resolve the crisis. Bundesbank officials in the past have opposed the ECB's bond purchase program because it blurs the line between monetary and fiscal policy, takes the pressure off countries to make the necessary fiscal consolidation to regain the trust of bond investors, and puts impaired securities on the ECB's balance sheet.
• German Chancellor Merkel and French President Hollande plan to speak today at 1PM Paris time by telephone to discuss how to help Spain as quickly as possible and to implement last month's summit agreements.
• Spain's Q2 unemployment rate rose by 0.2 points to a new record high of 24.6%, underlining the severe state of the Spanish economy.
• Chinese industrial company earnings in Jan-June fell 2.2% y/y, underlining the profit pressure that companies are under due to slower Chinese GDP growth.
• Japan's July CPI fell -0.2% y/y, down from +0.2% y/y in June and weaker than market expectations of unchanged. The report highlighted that Japan remains subject to deflationary pressure despite years of near-zero interest rates and large quantitative easing programs. Separately, Japan's June retail trade fell -1.2% m/m, which was much weaker than market expectations for a gain of +0.2% m/m and a reversal from the +0.7% m/m gain seen in May.
  Market Comments
  • Sep E-mini S&Ps this morning are up +3.25 points (+0.24%) on continued optimism that the ECB appears ready to start buying Spanish and Italian bonds in the secondary market. Facebook is down 10% in European trading this morning after reporting slower sales growth and narrower profit margins late yesterday afternoon. Starbucks is down 10% in European trading after fiscal Q4 earnings guidance was weaker than expected. The U.S. stock market on Thursday closed sharply higher: S&P 500 +1.65%, Dow Jones +1.67%, Nasdaq 100 +1.40%. Bullish factors centered on ECB President Draghi's strong statement that the ECB will do whatever it needs to do to support the euro and his implicit promise to push peripheral bond yields lower. Spanish and Italian bond yields plunged on Mr. Draghi's comments, making funding costs a little more reasonable for Spain and Italy. U.S. stock market participants are also hopeful that the Fed may announce a QE3 program at either next week's FOMC meeting or the next meeting in September.
  • Sep 10-year T-notes this morning are down 7.5 ticks on reduced safe-haven demand. Sep 10-year T-note prices on Thursday closed moderately lower: -6.5, FVU2 -2.25. T-note prices fell on reduced safe-haven demand with the sharp rally in stocks and the sharp decline in Spanish and Italian bond yields.
  • The dollar index this morning is slightly lower by -0.082 points (-0.10%) while EUR/USD is up +0.0021 (+0.17%) on the ECB's apparent intention to restart its bond buying program. USD/JPY is down -0.09 (-0.12%). The dollar index on Thursday closed sharply lower: Dollar index -0.716 (-0.86%), EUR/USD +0.0125 (+1.03%), USD/JPY +0.05 (+0.06%). The dollar index fell and EUR/USD rallied on Mr. Draghi's strong promise of support for the Eurozone and his implication that something big might be in the works. The ECB meets next Thursday and could be ready to announce new support measures for the Eurozone.
  • Sep WTI crude oil prices this morning are mildly higher by +0.30 (+0.34%) and Sep gasoline is up +0.0164 +0.60%) on some optimism about Europe with the ECB stepping in to try to reduce Spanish and Italian bond yields. Crude oil and gasoline prices on Thursday closed moderately higher: CLU2 +0.42 (+0.47%), RBU2 +0.0208 (+0.77%). Bullish factors centered on the sharp sell-off in the dollar index and the improved economic sentiment that came with ECB President Draghi's strong statement of support for the Eurozone.
  • For the complete subscription version of this daily report (plus a 13-page big-picture weekly report), along with the earliest possible delivery in the morning, please visit http://www.barchart.com/register/crbfms_usmc.php
    Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (ranked by market cap): Chevron (Consensus $3.22), MRK-Merck (1.01), LYB-Lyndellbasell (1.40), Newmont Mining (0.93), AON-Aon Plc (1.02), WY-Weyerhaeuser (0.10), DTE-DTE Energy (0.70), KKR-KKR & Co (0.16), CPN-Calpine (0.01), DHI-DR Horton (0.20), NWL-Newell Rubbermaid (0.45), HP-Helmerich & Payne (1.15), CVH-Coventry Health (0.64), NVE-NV Energy (0.18), BOKF-BOK Financial (1.13), NS-Nustar Energy (0.30).
    Global Financial Calendar
    

    Friday 7/27/12
    United States
    0830 ET	Q2 GDP expected +1.4% annualized, Q1 +1.9% q/q annualized. Q2 personal consumption expected +1.3%, Q1 +2.5%. Q2 GDP price index expected +1.6%, Q1 +2.0%. Q2 PCE expected +1.8% q/q, Q1 +2.3% q/q.
    0955 ET	Final-July U.S. consumer confidence index (University of Michigan) unchanged from early-July at 72.0, early-July -1.2 to 72.0.
    Germany
    0800 ET	Jul German CPI (EU harmonized) expected +0.4% m/m and +1.9% y/y, Jun -0.2% m/m and +2.0% y/y. German state July CPIs.

    Barchart.com provides Financial Quotes, Charts and Technical Analysis for Stock and Commodity Traders.

Barchart Morning Call 4/27

Barchart Morning Call

BC - 2 hrs 53 mins ago

Overnight Developments

• Global stock and commodity prices are mixed with June E-mini S&Ps up +1.50 points and the Euro Stoxx 50 up +0/22%. The euro rose from its worst levels and European stocks recovered from early losses after Italy sold 4.92 billion of 2017 and 202 bonds, close to its maximum target, while earnings results from Vinci SA and Sandvik AB beat analysts' forecasts. 10-year Treasury futures climbed to an all-time high and stocks and commodities slumped earlier after Standard & Poor's cut Spain's long-term credit rating by 2-steps to BBB+ from A with a negative outlook on concern it will have to provide further fiscal support to its banks as the economy contracts. Stocks fell further and the yield on Spain's 10-year bond rose to 6% after Spain's Q1 unemployment rate rose +1.5 to 24.4%, an 18-year high. After S&P downgraded Spain's sovereign-debt rating for the second time this year, Spain's Economy Minister Luis de Guindos said Spanish banks won't need external aid, nor will Spain need a bailout from its European partners. The British pound rose to a 7-1/2 month high against the dollar and a 22-month high against the euro on increased safe-haven demand on concern the European debt crisis is spreading. Other negatives for European stocks and the euro were the unexpected -0.2 point decline in the May German GfK consumer confidence survey to a 6-month low of 4.6 and the sharper-than-expected decline in Mar French consumer spending which fell -2.9% m/m and -2.0% y/y, weaker than expectations of -1.9% m/m and -0.2% y/y.
• Asian stocks today closed mostly lower with Japan down -0.43%, China -0.20%, Australia -0.30%, South Korea +0.73%, and India +0.02%. Most Asian stocks settled lower on concern that the European debt crisis will worsen and slow global economic growth after Spain had its credit rating cut by S&P. The yen rose to a 1-1/2 week high against the dollar, which undercut exporter stocks, despite the action by the BOJ to boost its asset-purchase program by 10 trillion yen ($125 billion), near the high side of expectations, after industrial production rose less than expected. Mar Japan industrial production increased +1.0% m/m and +13.9% y/y, weaker than expectations of +2.3% m/m and +15.5% y/y. Chinese stocks finished lower as well, as slumping corporate earnings overshadowed speculation the PBOC will ease monetary policy to boost economic growth.

Overnight U.S. Stock News

• June E-mini S&Ps this morning are trading up +1.50 points after recovering from earlier losses when S&P cut Spain's credit rating. The U.S. stock market on Thursday overcame early weakness from disappointing weekly U.S. jobless claims and shed its losses and moved higher the rest of the day on decent company earnings results and stronger-than-expected Mar U.S. pending home sales: Dow Jones +0.87%, S&P 500 +0.67%, Nasdaq Composite +0.69%. The S&P 500 and the Dow posted 3-week highs. Strong earnings results continue to support stocks as 75% of the S&P 500 companies that reported earnings results from Apr 10 have beaten estimates. Limiting gains in stocks were the larger-than-expected weekly initial U.S. unemployment claims (-1,000 to 388,000 versus expectations of -11,000 to 375,000), the decline in the Mar Chicago Fed national activity index to its weakest level in 7-months (-0.36 to -0.29), and carry-over weakness from a decline in European stocks after Apr Euro-Zone economic confidence fell to its lowest level in 2-1/2 years (-1.7 to 92.8).
• Starbucks (SBUX) fell 4.6% in European trading after the company reported Q2 same-store sales rose 7% globally, weaker than analysts' estimates of 8.2%.

Today's Market Focus

• June 10-year T-notes this morning are up +7 ticks as they posted a new all-time nearest futures high of 132-170. T-note prices Thursday strengthened after higher-than-expected weekly U.S. jobless claims added to speculation the Fed was far from cutting back on monetary stimulus: TYM2 +7.5, FVM2 +3.7. Dealer short-covering and hedge-lifting also boosted Treasuries after the conclusion of $99 billion of T-note auctions this week along with the larger-than-expected decline in the Mar Chicago Fed national activity index to its lowest level in 7 months (-0.36 to -0.29). Limiting gains in T-notes was stock market strength that sapped the safe-haven demand for Treasuries along with the larger-than-expected increase in Mar pending home sales (+4.1% m/m) and strong demand for the Treasury's $35 billion 5-year T-note auction that had a 3.09 bid-to-cover ratio, stronger than the 12-auction average of 2.90.
• The dollar index this morning is little changed with USD/JPY -0.27 yen and EUR/USD +0.11 cents. The dollar index on Thursday extended this week's decline to a fresh 3-week low and settled lower on reduced safe-haven demand after the S&P 500 rose to a 3-week high along with strength in the yen which rose to a 1-week high and the British pound which posted a 7-1/2 month high against the dollar: Dollar Index -0.093, USD/JPY -0.353, EUR/USD +0.00065. The yen strengthened on safe-haven demand and euro gains were limited after Apr Euro-Zone economic confidence fell to a 2-1/2 year low while the British pound rallied after Mar U.K. nationwide consumer confidence unexpectedly jumped +9 to a 10-month high of 53. The dollar also weakened on speculation Friday's Q1 U.S. GDP will show a slowdown in economic growth that prompts the Fed to keep its overly easy monetary policy in place.
• Jun crude oil prices this morning are trading down -24 cents a barrel and Jun gasoline is -0.92 of a cent per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices on Thursday erased early losses and moved higher as the dollar index slipped to a 3-week low and after a larger-than-expected increase in Mar U.S. pending home sales reduced economic concerns: CLM12 +0.43, RBM2 +1.37. Jun crude posted a 1-week high. A rally in stocks bolstered confidence in the economic outlook and was another positive for crude, while gains in crude were limited after Apr Euro-Zone economic confidence fell to its lowest level in 2-1/2 years.

Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (sorted by mkt cap): CVX-Chevron (consensus $3.23), PG-Procter & Gamble (0.92), MRK-Merk (0.98), SPG-Simon Property Group (0.65), F-Ford Motor (0.35), SCCO-Southern Copper (0.60), COV-Covidien Plc (1.03), NEM-Newmont Mining (1.13), VTR-Ventas (0.32), VFC-VF Corp. (1.88), IP-International Paper (0.50), WY-Weyerhaeuser (0.00), KKR-KKR & Co. LP (0.71), DTE-DTE Energy (1.09), CPN-Calpine (-0.13).
Global Financial Calendar

Friday 4/27/12
United States
0830 ET	Q1 employment cost index expected +0.5%, Q4 +0.4%.
0830 ET	Q1 GDP expected +2.5% annualized, Q4 +3.0% annualized. Q1 personal consumption expected +2.3%, Q4 +2.1%. Q1 GDP price index expected +2.1%, Q4 +0.9%. Q1 core PCE deflator expected +2.1% q/q, Q4 +1.3% q/q.
0955 ET	Final Apr U.S. University of Michigan consumer confidence expected unchanged at 75.7, previous -0.5 to 75.7.
Japan
0100 ET	Mar Japan construction orders, Feb -1.8% y/y.
0100 ET	Mar Japan housing starts expected +8.2% y/y to 875,000, Feb +7.5% y/y to 917,000.
Germany
0200 ET	May German GfK consumer confidence survey expected unchanged at 5.9, Apr -0.1 to 5.9.
0200 ET	Mar German import price index expected +0.9% m/m and +3.3% y/y, Feb +1.0% m/m and +3.5% y/y.
France
0245 ET	Mar French producer prices expected +0.6% m/m and +4.0% y/y, Feb +0.8% m/m and +4.3% y/y.
0245 ET	Mar French consumer spending expected -1.9% m/m and -0.2% y/y, Feb +3.0% m/m and +0.5% y/y.

Barchart.comhttp://www.barchart.com/ provides Financial Quotes, Charts and Technical Analysis for Stock and Commodity Traders.

Barchart Morning Call 2/9

Barchart Morning Call

Barchart.com - 1 hr 43 mins ago

Overnight Developments

• Global stocks this morning are mixed with the Euro Stoxx 50 up +0.14% and Mar S&Ps down -3.00 points. The euro rose and lifted European stocks as Greek Finance Minister Venizelos meets with Euro-Zone finance ministers today in Brussels who will decide if Greece has done enough to receive a bailout package needed to stave off default. Greek Prime Minister Papademos said the leaders of the three parties supporting his government "agreed on all the points of the program with the exception of one which requires further elaboration and discussion" with the lenders. Talks between Greece's political leaders stumbled over pensions and officials from the EU and the IMF gave Greece 15 more days to identify measures totaling 300 million euros. A rally in European carmakers boosted the overall stock market with Daimler AG up 3.7% after it reported Q4 earnings before interest and taxes of 2.18 billion euros, beating analysts' estimates of 2.17 billion euros. Another positive for equities was the +0.5% m/m increase in Dec U.K. industrial production, stronger than expectations of +0.2% m/m. Limiting gains in stocks is weakness in banking shares with Credit Suisse down 3.3% after it reported an unexpected Q4 loss of 637 million francs ($698 million), much weaker than analysts' estimates of a 446 million-franc profit and its first quarterly loss since 2008. As expected, the BOE kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.50% and raised the asset purchase target by 50 billion pounds to 325 billion pounds and said it expects a "significant" shortfall in the U.K. economy to persist.
• Asian stocks today closed mixed with Japan down -0.15%, China +0.04%, Australia -0.18%, South Korea +0.59%, India +0.70%. Japanese stocks closed lower after Dec Japan machine orders fell -7.1% m/m, weaker than expectations of -5.0% m/m and the biggest decline in 3 months as a faltering global economy and a strong yen dimmed the earnings outlook for exporters. Losses in Japanese stocks were limited however, as the yen tumbled to a 1-1/2 week low against the dollar. Chinese stocks finished higher, despite Jan China CPI rising a more than-expected +4.5% y/y, when the National Development and Reform Commission said China's rate of inflation will "steadily decline" as the effects of the New Year holiday and other "temporary factors" fade. Jan China PPI rose an as-expected +0.7% y/y, its smallest increase in over 2 years.

Overnight U.S. Stock News

• March S&Ps this morning are trading down -3.00 points. The US stock market on Wednesday was whipsawed by Greek debt news headlines and finally closed higher: Dow Jones +0.04%, S&P 500 +0.22%, Nasdaq Composite +0.41%. The S&P 500 climbed to a 7-month high and the Nasdaq posted a 10-3/4 year high. Bullish factors included (1) the possibility of QE3 from the Fed after San Francisco Fed President Williams said the Fed may have to buy additional mortgage bonds if the economic expansion falters or inflation slows too much and (2) decent Q4 earnings results thus far as 68% of the 304 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported quarterly results since Jan 9 have beaten earnings projections.
• Bearish factors Wednesday included (1) carry-over weakness from a late sell-off in European stocks which gave up early gains and closed lower on concern Greek debt-swap negotiations will fail after Reuters reported that 2 unidentified ECB sources said the ECB is still divided on what contribution to make as part of a Greek debt restructuring and (2) concern that growth in Germany, Europe's biggest economy, may be slowing after Dec German exports fell -4.3% m/m, the biggest monthly decline in nearly 3 years.

Today's Market Focus

• March 10-year T-notes this morning are down -1 tick. T-note prices on Wednesday closed lower on supply concerns although they settled well above their worst levels on increased safe-haven demand on concern Greek debt-swap talks will fail: TYH2 -2.0, FVH2 -1.2, EDM2 +1.5. Bearish factors Wednesday included (1) slack demand for the Treasury's $24 billion auction of 10-year T-notes that had a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.05, below the 12-auction average of 3.14, and indirect bidders, a proxy for foreign buying, took only 38.9% of the T-notes, below the 12-auction average of 47.3% and (2) supply pressures ahead of the Treasury's $16 billion 30-year T-bond auction on Thursday. Bullish factors included (1) comments from San Francisco Fed President Williams who said "we may still need to provide more policy accommodation if the economy loses momentum of inflation remains well below 2%," which keeps the door open for the Fed to implement QE3, and (2) increased safe-haven demand for Treasuries on concern Greek debt-swap negotiations will fail after Reuters reported that 2 unidentified ECB sources said the ECB is still divided on what contribution to make as part of a Greek debt restructuring.
• The dollar index this morning is weaker and at a 2-month low with the dollar/yen +0.12 yen and the euro/dollar -0.13 cents. The dollar index on Wednesday recovered from a 1-3/4 month low and settled higher after optimism over a resolution to the Greek debt-swap talks faded: Dollar Index +0.065, USDJPY +0.272, EURUSD +0.00003. The euro climbed to a 1-3/4 month high but shed its gains and closed little changed. Bullish factors included (1) increased safe-haven demand for the dollar after the euro relinquished early gains on speculation Greek debt-swap negotiations will fail after Reuters reported that 2 unidentified ECB sources said the ECB is still divided on what contribution to make as part of a Greek debt restructuring, (2) the slide in the yen to a 1-1/2 week low against the dollar after Japan's 2011 current-account surplus shrank -44% from 2010 to 9.63 trillion yen ($125 billion), the lowest in 15 years, and (3) the larger-than-expected -4.3% m/m decline in Dec German exports, the biggest monthly drop in nearly 3 years, which may lead to slower economic growth and is euro negative. Bearish factors Wednesday included (1) the -2 bp decline in the Markit iTraxx SovX Western Index of credit-default swaps to a 3-1/4 month low of 316 bp, which reduces European default concerns and is euro supportive and (2) dollar negative comments from San Francisco Fed President Williams who said the Fed may have to buy additional mortgage bonds if the economic expansion falters or inflation shows too much.
• Mar crude oil prices this morning are up +64 cents a barrel and Mar gasoline is +0.97 cents per gallon at a 5-1/4 month high. Crude oil and gasoline prices on Wednesday settled higher but well off of their best levels as a rebound in the dollar and a jump in weekly DOE gasoline inventories erased most of a morning rally: CLH12 +$0.30, RBH12 +4.77. Mar crude posted a 1-week high and Mar gasoline soared to a 5-1/2 month high. Bullish factors included (1) the smaller-than-expected increase in weekly DOE crude inventories (+304,000 bbl versus expectations of +2.5 million bbl), and (2) strength in gasoline on speculation that refinery shutdowns in the U.S. and Europe will trigger a supply crunch during the upcoming spring and summer driving season. Bearish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected increase in weekly DOE gasoline supplies to their highest level in 11 months (+1.63 million bbl to 231.8 million bbl versus expectations of +625,000 bbl), (2) the unexpected increase in weekly DOE distillate supplies (+1.17 million bbl versus expectations of -875,000 bbl), and (3) the rebound in the dollar which bounced back from a 1-3/4 month low to close higher, which reduces investment demand in commodities.

Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap): PM-Philip Morris International (BEST earnings consensus $1.09), PEP-Pepsico (1.12), NBL-Noble Energy (1.16), LO-Lorillard (1.96), ALXN-Alexion Pharmaceuticals (0.34), ATVI-Activision Blizzard (0.56), RSG-Republic Services (0.45), KKR-KKR & Co. LP (0.75), TDC-Teradata (0.62), NUAN-Nuance Communications (0.36), SIAL-Sigma-Aldrich (0.89), BG-Bunge Ltd. (1.53), CCE-Coca-Cola Enterprises (0.36), SIRI-Sirius XM Radio (0.01), LNKD-LinkedIn (0.07).
Global Financial Calendar

Thursday 2/9/12
United States
0830 ET	Weekly initial unemployment claims expected +3,000 to 370,000, previous -12,000 to 367,000. Weekly continuing claims expected +63,000 to 3.500 million, previous 130,000 to 3.437 million.
1000 ET	Dec wholesale inventories expected +0.4%, Nov +0.1%.
1100 ET	Treasury announces amount of 30-year TIPS to be auctioned on Feb 16 (previous $7 billion).
1300 ET	Treasury auctions $16 billion 30-year T-bonds.
1630 ET	Weekly money supply report and Fed balance sheet.
Japan
0000 ET	Jan Japan consumer confidence expected -0.4 to 38.5, Dec +0.8 to 38.9.
1850 ET	Jan Japan domestic CGPI expected +0.1% m/m and +0.8% y/y, Dec +0.1% m/m and +1.3% y/y.
United Kingdom
0430 ET	Dec U.K. industrial production expected +0.2% m/m and -3.1% y/y, Nov -0.7% m/m and -3.1% y/y.
0430 ET	Dec U.K. manufacturing production expected +0.2% m/m and +0.3% y/y, Nov -0.2% m/m and -0.6% y/y.
0700 ET	BOE announces interest rate decision and asset purchase target (expected no change to the 0.50% benchmark rate but asset purchase target increased 50 billion pounds to 325 billion pounds).
Euro-Zone
0745 ET	ECB announces interest rate decision (expected no change to the 1.00% 2-week refinancing rate).
0830 ET	ECB President Mario Draghi speaks at monthly press conference.
Canada
0830 ET	Dec Canada new housing price index, Nov +0.3% m/m and +2.5% y/y.
CHI
n/a	Jan China trade balance expected +$10.70 billion, Dec +$16.52 billion. Jan exports expected -1.5% y/y, Dec +13.4% y/y. Jan imports expected -5.0% y/y, Dec +11.8% y/y.

Barchart.com provides Financial Quotes, Charts and Technical Analysis for Stock and Commodity Traders.