BARCHART MORNING CALL 7/7

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Monday, July 7th, 2014View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

September E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 -0.05%) this morning are down -0.16% and European stocks are down -0.32% after German May industrial production unexpectedly declined for a third straight month. Also, IMF Managing Director Lagarde hinted that it may cut its global growth forecasts, saying investment is still weak and that risks remain in the U.S. even as its recovery accelerates. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan -0.37%, Hong Kong -0.02%, China -0.11%, Taiwan +0.11%, Australia -0.11%, Singapore +0.59%, South Korea -0.26%, India +0.53%. Commodity prices are mostly lower. Aug crude oil (CLQ14 +0.17%) is down -0.20%. Aug gasoline (RBQ14 -0.18%) is down -0.49%. Aug gold (GCQ14 -0.50%) is down -0.41%. Sep copper (HGU14 -0.58%) is down -0.79%. Agriculture prices are unch. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.02%) is up +0.02% at a 1-week high after Goldman Sachs revised its forecast for the Fed to start raising interest rates in Q3 of 2015 rather than Q1 of 2016, saying the economy is "accelerating to an above-trend pace.". EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.01% at a 2-week low after German May industrial production unexpectedly plunged by the most in 2 years. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.12%. Sep T-note prices (ZNU14 +0.01%) are up +0.5 of a tick.
German May industrial production unexpectedly fell -1.3% m/m, weaker than expectations of unch m/m, the third straight monthly decline and the sharpest drop in 2 years. On an annual basis, May industrial production rose +1.3% y/y, weaker than expectations of +3.6% y/y.
Eurozone Jul Sentix investor confidence unexpectedly rose +1.6 to 10.1, better than expectations of -0.7 to 7.8.
UK Jun Lloyds employment confidence fell -3 points to 1.
The Japan May leading index CI fell -0.8 to 105.7, a bigger decline than expectations of -0.6 to 105.9 and the lowest in 15 months. The May coincident index was unch at 111.1, higher than expectations of -0.1 to 111.0.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

There are no U.S. economic reports today. None of the Russell 1000 companies report earnings today. Equity conferences this week include: MicroStrategy Global User Conference on Tue, SEMICON West Conference on Tue, and Paris Europlace Financial Forum: Europe 2020 a Driver to Global Growth? on Tue-Wed.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY +2.68%) was downgraded to 'Underperform' from 'Neutral' at BofA/Merrill.
Williams-Sonoma (WSM +0.51%) and Ultratech (UTEK -0.61%) were both upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at BofA/Merrill.
Cinemark (CNK +0.45%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at B. Riley.
Southern Copper (SCCO +3.51%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at BMO Capital.
Charles Schwab (SCHW +2.55%) was upgraded to 'Market Perform' from 'Underperform' at Raymond James.
Applied Materials (AMAT +0.09%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Neutral' at JPMorgan.
Devon Energy (DVN +0.80%) and Western Refining (WNR +2.58%) were both upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Citigroup.
Peabody ({=BTU and Coeur Mining ({=CDE were both downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Deutsche Bank.
Deutsche Boerse (DBOEY -0.52%) was downgraded to 'Underperform' from 'Neutral' at Credit Suisse.
DT Advanced Technologies (GTAT -1.11%) slid over 6% in pre-market trading after Canaccord Genuity Group downgraded the stock to 'Hold' from 'Buy.'
Ebay (EBAY +0.77%) rose nearly 1% in pre-market trading after it said it extended a collect-in-store alliance with the UK's Argos chain to 650 outlets from 150.
King Digital Entertainment (KING -2.93%) rose nearly 3% in pre-market trading after Piper Jaffray upgraded the stock to 'Overweight' from 'Neutral.'
Archer-Daniels Midland (ADM +0.99%) rose 0.5% in pre-market trading after it said it will acquire Wild Flowers GmbH for $3 billion.
Sandell reported an 8.4% stake in Bob Evans (BOBE +1.17%) .
Gabelli reported an 8.45% stake in PLX Technology (PLXT unch) .

MARKET COMMENTS

Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 -0.05%) this morning are down -3.25 points (-0.16%). The S&P 500 index on Thursday posted a fresh record high and closed higher. The main bullish factor was the U.S. Jun payrolls report that showed (1) a +288,000 increase in Jun non-farm payrolls, stronger than expectations of +215,000, and (2) an unexpected -0.2 point drop in the Jun unemployment rate to 6.1%, indicating a stronger labor market than expectations of unchanged at 6.3% and the lowest in nearly 6 years. Closes: S&P 500 +0.55%, Dow Jones +0.54%, Nasdaq +0.61%.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU14 +0.01%) this morning are up +0.5 of a tick. Sep 10-year T-note futures prices on Thursday slipped to a 2-week low and closed lower. Bearish factors included (1) the stronger-than-expected Jun payrolls report, and (2) reduced safe-haven demand for T-notes after the S&P 500 rallied to a new record high. Closes: TYU4 -5.50, FVU4 -5.00.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.02%) this morning is up +0.014 (+0.02%) at a 1-week high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0001 (+0.01%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.12 (-0.12%). The dollar index on Thursday closed higher after stronger-than-expected U.S. Jun non-farm payrolls boosted speculation the Fed will bring forward the timing of expected interest rate increases. EUR/USD fell back after ECB President Draghi kept open the possibility of quantitative easing by the ECB when he said “we are strongly determined to safeguard the firm anchoring of inflation expectations over the medium term” and stand ready to embark on broad-based asset purchases if necessary. Closes: Dollar index +0.256 (+0.32%), EUR/USD -0.0048 (-0.35%). USD/JPY +0.408 (+0.40%).
Aug WTI crude oil (CLQ14 +0.17%) this morning is down -21 cents (-0.20%). Aug gasoline (RBQ14 -0.18%) is down -0.0148 (-0.49%). Aug crude and gasoline prices on Thursday tumbled to 3-week lows and closed lower. Negative factors included (1) signs of increased supplies after Libya said it was opening the Es Sider and Ras Lanuf oil export facilities after it reached an agreement with rebels who have blockaded the ports for the past year, and (2) speculation Hurricane Arthur will curb fuel demand on the U.S. East coast over the Fourth of July holiday. Closes: CLQ4 -0.42 (-0.41%) RBQ4 -0.0060 (-0.20%).

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR07/07/2014

US	1100 ET	USDA weekly grain export inspections.
	1600 ET	USDA weekly crop progress.
JPN	0100 ET	Japan May leading index CI expected -0.5 to 106.0, Apr 106.5. May coincident index expected -0.1 to 111.0, Apr 111.1.
GER	0200 ET	German May industrial production expected +0.2% m/m and +3.5% y/y, Apr +0.2% m/m and +1.8% y/y.
EUR	0430 ET	Eurozone Jul Sentix investor confidence, Jun 8.5.
UK	0430 ET	UK Jun Lloyds employment confidence, May 4.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR07/07/2014

Company Name	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Bed Bath & Beyond Inc	BBBY US	9:00	Annual General Meeting	Y 2014
Applied Materials Inc	AMAT US	16:30	Analyst Briefing	Y 2014
Brookdale Senior Living Inc	BKD US		Annual General Meeting

BARCHART MORNING CALL 4/22

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Tuesday, April 22nd, 2014View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 +0.01%) this morning are up +0.01% and European stocks are up +0.95% after drug maker stocks rallied as more than $28 billion in M&A deals has bolstered speculation of more takeovers. GlaxoSmithKline Plc and AstraZeneca Plc jumped more than 5% after Novartis AG agreed to buy Glaxo's cancer-drug business for as much as $16 billion, and after reports surfaced about a potential AstraZeneca acquisition by Pfizer. The Ukraine deal nears collapse after pro-Russian forces who seized buildings in at least 10 eastern Ukrainian cities said they are not bound by the deal reached last Thursday by Ukraine. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan -0.85%, Hong Kong -0.13%, China +0.44%, Taiwan +0.26%, Australia +0.46%, Singapore +0.67%, South Korea +0.25%, India -0.03%. Commodity prices are mixed. Jun crude oil (CLM14 -0.37%) is down -0.36%. Jun gasoline (RBM14 -0.43%) is down -0.46%. Jun gold (GCM14 +0.23%) is up +0.26%. May copper (HGK14 -0.36%) is down -0.35%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.12%) is down -0.14%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) recovered from a 1-1/2 week low and is up +0.19% on expectations for Eurozone Apr consumer confidence, scheduled to be released later today, will remain unchanged. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.04%. June T-note prices (ZNM14 +0.03%) are up +2 ticks.
The chairman of China Huarong Asset Management, China's largest manager of bad debt, said that China's bad-loan ratio rose "significantly" in Q1 as the business environment this year has been "grim and complicated" as lenders face pressures on asset quality, liquidity and lending margins. This increases the risks for China's entire banking industry.
ECB Executive Board member Coeure said that "all things being equal, a stronger euro justifies accommodative monetary policy, and that the ECB could cut the benchmark rate and/or deposit rate if necessary to counter the strength from the currency."
Eurozone Feb construction output rose +0.1% m/m and +6.7% y/y, weaker than Jan which was revised to +1.6% m/m and +8.0% y/y from the originally reported +1.5% m/m and +8.8% y/y.
The Japan Feb leading index CI was revised upward to 108.9 from the originally reported 108.5. The Feb coincident index was revised down to 113.0 from the originally reported 113.4.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Today’s March existing home sales report is expected to show a -1.1% decline to 4.55 million, adding to the -0.4% decline to 4.60 million seen in February. Today’s Feb FHFA house price index is expected to show an increase of +0.5% m/m, matching the +0.5% m/m increase seen in January. Today’s Apr Richmond Fed manufacturing index is expected to show a +9 point increase to 2 following the -1 point decline to -7 seen in March. The Treasury today will sell $32 billion in 2-year T-notes.
There are 30 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today. Notable reports include AT&T (consensus $0.70), Yum Brands (0.84), Amgen (1.94), Discover (1.25), Comcast (0.64), Lockheed Martin (2.54), and McDonalds (1.24). The only equity conference this week is the Barclays Chicago Energy CFO Corporate Day on Tuesday.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Lockheed Martin (LMT +0.77%) reported Q1 EPS of $2.87, higher than consensus of $2.54.
Comcast (CMCSA +1.59%) reported Q1 EPS of 68 cents, better than consensus of 64 cents.
Harley-Davidson (HOG +1.35%) reported Q1 EPS of $1.21, stronger than consensus of $1.08.
Travelers (TRV -0.32%) reported Q1 EPS of $2.95, well ahead of consensus of $2.16.
Celanese (CE +0.96%) reported Q1 EPS of $1.33, well above consensus of $1.21.
Allergan (AGN +6.03%) surged 19% in European trading after Pershing Square reported a 9.7% stake in the company and then said that Valeant (VRX +3.24%) intends to propose a merger with Allergan.
Lone Pine Capital reported a 5.5% passive stake in Michael Kors (KORS +0.83%) .
Rent-A-Center (RCII -1.38%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 57 cents, better than consensus of 55 cents, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2014 EPS to $2.30-$2.50, higher than consensus of $2.29.
Werner (WERN -0.08%) reported Q1 EPS of 20 cents, below consensus of 21 cents.
Visium Asset reported a 5.1% passive stake in Brookdale Senior Living (BKD +0.41%) .
Polaris Venture Partners V reported a 17.3% stake in Cerulean (CERU +6.72%) .
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved Eli Lilly's (LLY +0.71%) Cyramza drug to treat patients with advanced stomach cancer or gastroesophageal junction adenocarcinoma.
Hexcel (HXL unch) reported Q1 EPS of 50 cents, better than consensus of 49 cents.
Waste Connections (WCN -0.02%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 44 cents, higher than consensus of 41 cents.
Facebook (FB +3.90%) climbed over 2% in after-hours trading after it was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Neutral' at Credit Suisse.
Netflix (NFLX +0.80%) rose 7% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 EPS of 86 cents, higher than consensus of 83 cents, and said it expects Q2 EPS of $1.12, better than consensus of $1.00.

MARKET COMMENTS

June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 +0.01%) this morning are up +0.25 of a point (+0.01%). The S&P 500 index on Monday rose to a 1-week high and closed higher. Bullish factors included (1) the +0.8% increase in U.S. Mar leading indicators, stronger than expectations of +0.7% and the largest increase in 4 months, and (2) optimism that U.S. Q1 company earnings results will continue to surprise on the upside as 70% of the 86 S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings results thus far have beaten expectations. Closes: S&P 500 +0.38%, Dow Jones +0.25%, Nasdaq +0.72%.
Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM14 +0.03%) this morning are up +2 ticks. Jun 10-year T-note futures prices on Monday rebounded from a 2-week low and closed little changed. Bullish factors included (1) concerns over the global economy after Japan Mar exports rose at the slowest pace in a year, and (2) increased safe-haven demand for Treasuries on concern the crisis in Ukraine may escalate after three people were killed in a clash between pro-Russian militants and Ukraine forces in the Ukraine city of Slovyansk. T-note prices fell back from their best levels after strength in stocks undercut safe-haven demand for Treasuries. Closes: TYM4 -20.00, FVM4 -11.00.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.12%) this morning is down -0.109 (-0.14%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0026 (+0.19%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.04 (-0.04%). The dollar index on Monday rallied up to a 1-1/2 week high and closed higher. Supportive factors for the dollar included (1) the stronger-than-expected U.S. Mar leading indicators, which boosts the outlook for the Fed to continue to taper QE3, and (2) weakness in the yen after USD/JPY climbed to a 1-1/2 week high when Japan Mar exports rose +1.8% y/y, weaker than expectations of +6.5% y/y and the slowest pace of increase in a year, which bolsters speculation the BOJ may increase its stimulus measures. Closes: Dollar index +0.109 (+0.14%), EUR/USD -0.00206 (-0.15%), USD/JPY +0.211 (+0.21%).
Jun WTI crude oil (CLM14 -0.37%) this morning is down -37 cents (-0.36%) and Jun gasoline (RBM14 -0.43%) is down -0.0141 (-0.46%). Jun crude and gasoline prices on Monday closed higher with Jun gasoline at a 7-1/2 month high. Bullish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected +0.8% increase in U.S. Mar leading indicators, which signals strength in the U.S. economy and energy demand, (2) the ongoing Ukraine crisis and concern any further escalation of hostilities could lead to a disruption of energy supplies throughout Europe. Closes: CLM4 +0.28 (+0.27%). RBM4 +0.0221 (+0.73%).

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR04/22/2014

US	0900 ET	Feb FHFA house price index expected +0.5% m/m, Jan +0.5% m/m.
	1000 ET	Apr Richmond Fed manufacturing index expected +9 to 2, Mar -1 to -7.
	1000 ET	Mar existing home sales expected -1.1% to 4.55 million, Feb -0.4% to 4.60 million.
	1145 ET	Former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks at the Economic Club of Canada on 8 Years of Crisis Management at the Federal Reserve and the Way Forward.
	1300 ET	Treasury auctions $32 billion 2-year T-notes.
	1500 ET	USDA Mar Cold Storage.
JPN	0100 ET	Revised Japan Fed leading index CI, previous 108.5. Revised Feb coincident index CI, previous 113.4.
EUR	0500 ET	Eurozone Feb construction output, Jan +1.5% m/m and +8.8% y/y.
	1000 ET	Eurozone Apr consumer confidence expected unch at -9.3, Mar -9.3.
CHI	2145 ET	China HSBC Apr manufacturing PMI expected +0.3 to 48.3, Mar -0.5 to 48.0.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR04/22/2014

Company Name	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Pentair Ltd	PNR US	Bef-mkt	Q1 2014 Earnings Release	Q1 2014	0.728
Omnicom Group Inc	OMC US	Bef-mkt	Q1 2014 Earnings Release	Q1 2014	0.789
Lockheed Martin Corp	LMT US	Bef-mkt	Q1 2014 Earnings Release	Q1 2014	2.535
Allegheny Technologies Inc	ATI US	Bef-mkt	Q1 2014 Earnings Release	Q1 2014	-0.07
Regions Financial Corp	RF US	Bef-mkt	Q1 2014 Earnings Release	Q1 2014	0.195
Prologis Inc	PLD US	Bef-mkt	Q1 2014 Earnings Release	Q1 2014	0.42
Genuine Parts Co	GPC US	Bef-mkt	Q1 2014 Earnings Release	Q1 2014	1.019
Harley-Davidson Inc	HOG US	Bef-mkt	Q1 2014 Earnings Release	Q1 2014	1.082
Simon Property Group Inc	SPG US	Bef-mkt	Q1 2014 Earnings Release	Q1 2014	2.243
Interpublic Group of Cos Inc/The	IPG US	Bef-mkt	Q1 2014 Earnings Release	Q1 2014	-0.081
McDonald's Corp	MCD US	Bef-mkt	Q1 2014 Earnings Release	Q1 2014	1.238
Bank of New York Mellon Corp/The	BK US	6:30	Q1 2014 Earnings Release	Q1 2014	0.535
United Technologies Corp	UTX US	6:59	Q1 2014 Earnings Release	Q1 2014	1.273
Xerox Corp	XRX US	7:15	Q1 2014 Earnings Release	Q1 2014	0.238
Bank of New York Mellon Corp/The	BK US	8:00	Q1 2014 Earnings Call	Q1 2014
Coca-Cola Enterprises Inc	CCE US	8:00	Annual General Meeting	Y 2014
Illinois Tool Works Inc	ITW US	8:00	Q1 2014 Earnings Release	Q1 2014	0.978
Omnicom Group Inc	OMC US	8:30	Q1 2014 Earnings Call	Q1 2014
Allegheny Technologies Inc	ATI US	8:30	Q1 2014 Earnings Call	Q1 2014
Comcast Corp	CMCSA US	8:30	Q1 2014 Earnings Call	Q1 2014
Interpublic Group of Cos Inc/The	IPG US	8:30	Q1 2014 Earnings Call	Q1 2014
Pentair Ltd	PNR US	9:00	Q1 2014 Earnings Call	Q1 2014
Travelers Cos Inc/The	TRV US	9:00	Q1 2014 Earnings Call	Q1 2014
United Technologies Corp	UTX US	9:00	Q1 2014 Earnings Call	Q1 2014
Harley-Davidson Inc	HOG US	9:00	Q1 2014 Earnings Call	Q1 2014
SunTrust Banks Inc	STI US	9:30	Annual General Meeting
Citigroup Inc	C US	10:00	Annual General Meeting	Y 2014
Xerox Corp	XRX US	10:00	Q1 2014 Earnings Call	Q1 2014
Illinois Tool Works Inc	ITW US	10:00	Q1 2014 Earnings Call	Q1 2014
CR Bard Inc	BCR US	Aft-mkt	Q1 2014 Earnings Release	Q1 2014	1.862
Yum! Brands Inc	YUM US	Aft-mkt	Q1 2014 Earnings Release	Q1 2014	0.837
AT&T Inc	T US	Aft-mkt	Q1 2014 Earnings Release	Q1 2014	0.698
Torchmark Corp	TMK US	Aft-mkt	Q1 2014 Earnings Release	Q1 2014	1.507
Nabors Industries Ltd	NBR US	Aft-mkt	Q1 2014 Earnings Release	Q1 2014	0.152
FMC Technologies Inc	FTI US	Aft-mkt	Q1 2014 Earnings Release	Q1 2014	0.5
Intuitive Surgical Inc	ISRG US	Aft-mkt	Q1 2014 Earnings Release	Q1 2014	2.7
Amgen Inc	AMGN US	Aft-mkt	Q1 2014 Earnings Release	Q1 2014	1.94
Juniper Networks Inc	JNPR US	Aft-mkt	Q1 2014 Earnings Release	Q1 2014	0.29
International Game Technology	IGT US	Aft-mkt	Q2 2014 Earnings Release	Q2 2014	0.189
Discover Financial Services	DFS US	Aft-mkt	Q1 2014 Earnings Release	Q1 2014	1.254
Noble Energy Inc	NBL US		Annual General Meeting	Y 2014
American Electric Power Co Inc	AEP US		Annual General Meeting
Travelers Cos Inc/The	TRV US		Q1 2014 Earnings Release	Q1 2014	2.155
Comerica Inc	CMA US		Annual General Meeting	Y 2014
PerkinElmer Inc	PKI US		Annual General Meeting
Actavis plc	ACT US		FDA Adcomm, Moxduo (morphine/oxycodone fixed-ratio combo), acute pain
VF Corp	VFC US		Annual General Meeting
Comcast Corp	CMCSA US		Q1 2014 Earnings Release	Q1 2014	0.644
Stryker Corp	SYK US		Annual General Meeting

BARCHART MORNING CALL 2/6

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Thursday, February 6th, 2014View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

March E-mini S&Ps (ESH14 +0.33%) this morning are up +0.50% and European stocks are up +1.12% ahead of the results of the ECB's policy meeting. As expected, the BOE kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.50% and maintained its asset purchase target at 375 billion pounds. Asian stocks closed mostly higher: Japan -0.18%, Hong Kong +0.72%, China closed for holiday, Taiwan +0.56%, Australia +1.20%, Singapore +0.95%, South Korea +1.02%, India +0.25%. Emerging-market stocks stabilized and a rally in the Turkish lira has led emerging-market currencies higher ahead of an expected dovish stance by ECB President Draghi at his press conference later today. Commodity prices are mostly higher. Mar crude oil (CLH14 +1.02%) is up +0.54%. Mar gasoline (RBH14 +1.20%) is up +0.62%. Apr gold (GCJ14 +0.49%) is up +0.33%. March copper (HGH14 +0.50%) is up +0.60%. Agriculture and livestock prices are higher. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.09%) is up +0.09%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.10% after German Dec factory orders unexpectedly declined. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.03%. March T-note prices (ZNH14 -0.10%) are down -4 ticks.
German Dec factory orders unexpectedly fell -0.5% m/m, weaker than expectations of a +0.2% m/m increase, and on an annual basis Dec factory orders rose +6.0% y/y, a slower pace than expectations of +7.2% y/y.
UK Jan Halifax house prices rose +1.1% m/m and +7.3% y/y, slightly higher than expectations of +1.0% m/m and +7.2% y/y.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Today’s weekly initial unemployment claims report is expected to show a decline of -13,000 to 335,000, reversing most of last week’s increase of +19,000 to 348,000. Weekly continuing claims are expected to show a small increase of +3,000 to 2.994 million following last week’s decline of -16,000 to 2.991 million. Today’s Dec trade deficit is expected to widen slightly to -$36.0 billion from -$34.3 billion in November.
There are 25 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today. Notable reports include General Motors (consensus $0.87), Kellogg (0.82), Aetna (1.36), Cummins (1.97), News Corp (0.19), FMC Technologies (0.65), VeriSign (0.60), and Expedia (0.85). Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include Cowen and Company Aerospace Defense & Transportation Conference on Wed-Thu, Wind Power Finance & Investment Summit 2014 on Wed-Thu, UBS Industrials Conference on Thu, and India Auto Expo 2014 on Fri.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Aetna (AET +1.50%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.34, below consensus of $1.36.
O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY +0.05%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.40, higher than consensus of $1.34.
Assurant (AIZ +0.74%) reported Q4 operating EPS of $1.42, better than consensus of $1.41.
Green Mountain (GMCR +0.92%) soared over 40% in after-hours trading after Coca-Cola (KO +0.35%) said it will buy a 10% stake in the company for $1.25 billion.
Everest Re (RE +0.11%) reported Q4 EPS ex-items of $6.28, well above consensus of $4.97.
Con-way (CNW -0.51%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 23 cents, stronger than consensus of 21 cents.
Standard Pacific (SPF +0.12%) reported Q4 EPS of 16 cents, higher than consensus of 14 cents.
CBRE Group (CBG -0.22%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 67 cents, better than consensus of 66 cents.
Disney (DIS +1.00%) rose nearly 4% in pre-market trading after it reported Q1 EPS ex-items of $1.04, well ahead of consensus of 92 cents.
Brookdale Senior Living (BKD +0.60%) reported a Q4 EPS loss of -1 cents, worse than consensus of a 2 cent gain.
Mettler-Toledo (MTD -0.82%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $3.82, better than consensus of $3.74.
Allstate (ALL -0.70%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.76, well above consensus of $1.38.
Prudential (PRU +0.24%) reported Q4 EPS of $2.20, weaker than consensus of $2.23.
Akamai (AKAM +2.00%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 55 cents, higher than consensus of 52 cents.
Twitter (TWTR -0.53%) reported Q4 EPS of 2 cents, better than consensus of a -2 cent loss and then said it sees 2014 revenue of $1.15 billion-$1.2 billion, above consensus $1.13 billion.
Cincinnati Financial (CINF -0.32%) reported Q4 EPS of 74 cents, better than consensus of 69 cents.
Fiserv FISV reported Q4 EPS of 79 cents, below consensus of 81 cents.

MARKET COMMENTS

Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH14 +0.33%) this morning are up +8.75 points (+0.50%). The S&P 500 on Wednesday fell to a 3-1/4 month low after Jan ADP employment rose +175,000, less than expectations of +185,000 and the smallest increase in 5 months. Stock prices recovered, however, and settled only modestly lower after the Jan ISM non-manufacturing index rose +1.0 to 54.0, better than expectations of +0.7 to 53.7. Another negative for stocks was the hawkish comment from Philadelphia Fed President Plosser that the Fed may have to quicken the pace of tapering QE3 if the economy improves as he expects. Closes: S&P 500 -0.20%, Dow Jones -0.03%, Nasdaq 100 -0.44%.
Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH14 -0.10%) this morning are down -4 ticks. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices on Wednesday closed lower on reduced safe-haven demand for T-notes as stocks erased an early decline and moved higher. T-note prices were also hurt by the hawkish comment from Philadelphia Fed President Plosser that an improving U.S. economy may “warrant a quicker tapering of bond purchases” by the Fed. Closes: TYH4 -8.50, FVH4 -3.75.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.09%) this morning is up +0.074 (+0.09%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0014 (-0.10%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.03 (+0.03%). The dollar index on Wednesday closed lower. Bearish factors included (1) the smaller-than-expected Jan ADP employment report of +175,000, and (2) a rebound in stock prices from their worst levels, which reduced safe-haven demand for the dollar. Closes: Dollar index -0.085 (-0.10%), EUR/USD +0.00154 (+0.11%), USD/JPY -0.204 (-0.20%).
Mar WTI crude oil (CLH14 +1.02%) this morning is up +53 cents (+0.34%) and Mar gasoline (RBH14 +1.20%) is up +0.0165 (+0.62%). Mar crude oil and gasoline prices on Wednesday closed higher. Supportive factors for crude included (1) the +440,000 bbl increase in weekly EIA crude inventories, well below expectations for a +2.270 million bbl build, (2) the +505,000 bbl increase in weekly gasoline stockpiles, only about half of expectations of +920,000 bbl, and (3) the fall in Jan OPEC crude production to a 2-1/2 yr low of 29.888 million bpd. Closes: CLH4 +0.19 (+0.20%), RBH4 +0.0382 (+1.47%).

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR02/06/2014

US	0730 ET	Jan Challenger job cuts, Dec -5.9% y/y.
	0830 ET	Weekly initial unemployment claims expected -13,000 to 335,000, previous +19,000 to 348,000. Weekly continuing claims expected +7,000 to 2.998 million, previous 16,000 to 2.991 million.
	0830 ET	Q4 non-farm productivity expected +2.8%, Q3 +3.0%. Q4 unit labor costs expected -0.7%, Q3 -1.4%.
	0830 ET	Dec trade balance expected -$36.0 billion, Nov -$34.3 billion.
	0830 ET	USDA weekly Export Sales.
	1000 ET	Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo testifies before the Senate Banking Committee on Oversight of Financial Stability and Data Security.
	1730 ET	Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren speaks on the economic outlook at New College in Sarasota, FL.
GER	0600 ET	German Dec factory orders expected +0.2% m/m and +6.3% y/y, Nov +2.1% m/m and +6.8% y/y.
UK	0700 ET	BOE announces interest rate decision and asset purchase target, no change expected to the 0.50% benchmark rate or to the 375 billion pound asset target.
EUR	0745 ET	ECB announces interest rate decision.
	0830 ET	ECB President Mario Draghi speaks at monthly press conference.
CHI	n/a	Chinese markets are closed Monday-Thursday for Lunar New Year holiday.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR02/06/2014

Company Name	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Noble Energy Inc	NBL US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2013 Earnings Release	Q4 2013	0.588
PPL Corp	PPL US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2013 Earnings Release	Q4 2013	0.503
Exelon Corp	EXC US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2013 Earnings Release	Q4 2013	0.535
Teradata Corp	TDC US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2013 Earnings Release	Q4 2013	0.845
Philip Morris International Inc	PM US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2013 Earnings Release	Q4 2013	1.367
Vulcan Materials Co	VMC US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2013 Earnings Release	Q4 2013	-0.028
Alliance Data Systems Corp	ADS US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2013 Earnings Release	Q4 2013	2.331
Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc	DO US	6:00	Q4 2013 Earnings Release	Q4 2013	0.806
Aetna Inc	AET US	6:00	Q4 2013 Earnings Release	Q4 2013	1.359
Snap-on Inc	SNA US	7:00	Q4 2013 Earnings Release	Q4 2013	1.557
Wisconsin Energy Corp	WEC US	7:00	Q4 2013 Earnings Release	Q4 2013	0.589
Sigma-Aldrich Corp	SIAL US	7:00	Q4 2013 Earnings Release	Q4 2013	1.013
Cummins Inc	CMI US	7:30	Q4 2013 Earnings Release	Q4 2013	1.965
Sealed Air Corp	SEE US	7:30	Q4 2013 Earnings Release	Q4 2013	0.372
General Motors Co	GM US	7:30	Q4 2013 Earnings Release	Q4 2013	0.866
L Brands Inc	LB US	7:30	January 2014 Sales and Revenue Call	2014
Twenty-First Century Fox Inc	FOXA US	8:00	Q2 2014 Earnings Release	Q2 2014	0.33
Perrigo Co Plc	PRGO US	8:00	Q2 2014 Earnings Release	Q2 2014	1.595
Kellogg Co	K US	8:00	Q4 2013 Earnings Release	Q4 2013	0.82
Assurant Inc	AIZ US	8:00	Q4 2013 Earnings Call	Q4 2013
Twenty-First Century Fox Inc	FOXA US	8:30	Q2 2014 Earnings Call	Q2 2014
PPL Corp	PPL US	8:30	Q4 2013 Earnings Call	Q4 2013
Teradata Corp	TDC US	8:30	Q4 2013 Earnings Call	Q4 2013
Tesoro Corp	TSO US	8:30	Q4 2013 Earnings Call	Q4 2013
Aetna Inc	AET US	8:30	Q4 2013 Earnings Call	Q4 2013
Alliance Data Systems Corp	ADS US	8:30	Q4 2013 Earnings Call	Q4 2013
Chesapeake Energy Corp	CHK US	9:00	FY 2014 Guidance Call	Y 2014
Marathon Oil Corp	MRO US	9:00	Q4 2013 Earnings Call	Q4 2013
Allstate Corp/The	ALL US	9:00	Q4 2013 Earnings Call	Q4 2013
Kellogg Co	K US	9:30	Q4 2013 Earnings Call	Q4 2013
Noble Energy Inc	NBL US	10:00	Q4 2013 Earnings Call	Q4 2013
Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc	DO US	10:00	Q4 2013 Earnings Call	Q4 2013
Snap-on Inc	SNA US	10:00	Q4 2013 Earnings Call	Q4 2013
Cummins Inc	CMI US	10:00	Q4 2013 Earnings Call	Q4 2013
Sealed Air Corp	SEE US	10:00	Q4 2013 Earnings Call	Q4 2013
Perrigo Co Plc	PRGO US	10:00	Q2 2014 Earnings Call	Q2 2014
General Motors Co	GM US	10:00	Q4 2013 Earnings Call	Q4 2013
Kimco Realty Corp	KIM US	10:00	Q4 2013 Earnings Call	Q4 2013
Lincoln National Corp	LNC US	10:00	Q4 2013 Earnings Call	Q4 2013
Northeast Utilities	NU US	10:30	Analyst Day	Y 2014
Exelon Corp	EXC US	11:00	Q4 2013 Earnings Call	Q4 2013
Vulcan Materials Co	VMC US	11:00	Q4 2013 Earnings Call	Q4 2013
FMC Corp	FMC US	11:00	Q4 2013 Earnings Call	Q4 2013
O'Reilly Automotive Inc	ORLY US	11:00	Q4 2013 Earnings Call	Q4 2013
Sigma-Aldrich Corp	SIAL US	11:00	Q4 2013 Earnings Call	Q4 2013
Prudential Financial Inc	PRU US	11:00	Q4 2013 Earnings Call	Q4 2013
Cincinnati Financial Corp	CINF US	11:00	Q4 2013 Earnings Call	Q4 2013
Philip Morris International Inc	PM US	13:00	Q4 2013 Earnings Call	Q4 2013
Wisconsin Energy Corp	WEC US	14:00	Q4 2013 Earnings Call	Q4 2013
Expedia Inc	EXPE US	16:00	Q4 2013 Earnings Release	Q4 2013	0.85
VeriSign Inc	VRSN US	16:05	Q4 2013 Earnings Release	Q4 2013	0.596
Expedia Inc	EXPE US	16:30	Q4 2013 Earnings Call	Q4 2013
News Corp	NWSA US	16:30	Q2 2014 Earnings Call	Q2 2014
VeriSign Inc	VRSN US	16:30	Q4 2013 Earnings Call	Q4 2013
Republic Services Inc	RSG US	17:00	Q4 2013 Earnings Call	Q4 2013
Republic Services Inc	RSG US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2013 Earnings Release	Q4 2013	0.464
FMC Technologies Inc	FTI US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2013 Earnings Release	Q4 2013	0.651
Apartment Investment & Management Co	AIV US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2013 Earnings Release	Q4 2013	0.564
News Corp	NWSA US	Aft-mkt	Q2 2014 Earnings Release	Q2 2014	0.194
Rockwell Collins Inc	COL US		Annual General Meeting	Y 2014
Consolidated Edison Inc	ED US		Q4 2013 Earnings Release	Q4 2013	0.654
Gap Inc/The	GPS US		January 2014 Sales and Revenue Release	2014
Costco Wholesale Corp	COST US		January 2014 Sales and Revenue Release	2014
L Brands Inc	LB US		January 2014 Sales and Revenue Release	2014

Barchart Morning Call 4/18

Barchart Morning Call

BC - 2 hrs 22 mins ago

Overnight Developments

• Global stock and commodity prices are mixed with June E-mini S&Ps down -3.50 points and the Euro Stoxx 50 down -0.33%. The dollar strengthened and most commodities fell, with May gasoline cascading to a 1-1/2 month low, on concern Spain may be the next Euro-Zone nation to need a bailout. Feb Spain non-performing loans as a proportion of total lending jumped to 8.16%, up from 7.91% in Jan and the highest level in 18 years. Data from the Bank of Spain show that Spanish banks are burdened with about 176 billion euros of "troubled" real estate assets and that 21% of the 298 billion euros of loans linked to property developers are non-performing. Despite the increase in the country's bad loans, the yield on Spain's 10-year bond fell to a 1-1/2 week low of 5.72% on optimism over tomorrows auctions of 2-year and 10-year Spanish securities. Another negative for European stocks was the drop in Feb Euro-Zone construction output for a third month after it fell -7.1% m/m and -12.9% y/y. The British pound climbed to a 2-week high against the dollar after the minutes of the Apr 4-5 BOE policy meeting showed that policy maker Posen ended his push for further stimulus. The pound also rallied after Mar U.K. jobless claims rose +3,600, less than expectations of +6,000, and after the ILO unemployment rate unexpectedly fell -0.1 to 8.3% in the quarter through Feb.
• Asian stocks today closed higher with Japan up +2.14%, China +2.28%, Australia +1.40%, South Korea +1.10%, India +0.20%. Asian stocks rose after the IMF raised its global economic forecasts and after Spain sold more bills than the maximum target. The yen slipped to a 1-week low against the dollar and boosted Japanese exporters after BOJ Deputy Governor Nishimura said that the BOJ is "committed to implementing additional easing measures, if deemed necessary." His comments bolster the view that the BOJ will expand its asset-purchase fund for the second time in 3 months at the BOJ's next policy meeting on Apr 27. China's Shanghai Stock Index climbed to a 3-1/2 week high on speculation the PBOC may cut banks' reserve requirement ratios after Mar China home prices fell in a record 37 of 70 cities tracked by the government.

Overnight U.S. Stock News

• June E-mini S&Ps this morning are trading down -3.50 points on disappointing earnings results from IBM and Intel along with concerns over Spains debt. The U.S. stock market on Tuesday rallied throughout the day and settled sharply higher as European debt concerns eased after Spain raised more than its maximum target at a bill auction and after the IMF hiked its 2012 and 2013 GDP forecasts: Dow Jones +1.50%, S&P 500 +1.55%, Nasdaq Composite +1.82%. The S&P 500 posted a 1-week high and the Dow Jones climbed to a 1-1/2 week high. Additional bullish factors were carry-over strength from a rally in European equities after Apr German ZEW investor confidence unexpectedly rose to a 22-month high and after Mar U.S. building permits unexpectedly rose to their best level in 3-1/2 years (+4.5% to 747,000 versus expectations of -0.7% to 710,000). Negatives for stocks were the decline in Mar U.S. housing starts to a 5-month low (-5.8% to 654,000) and the unexpected stagnation in Mar industrial production (unchanged versus expectations of +0.3%).
• International Business Machines (IBM) slipped 1.6% in European trading after the company reported late yesterday Q1 sales of $24.7 billion, below analysts' predictions of $24.8 billion.
• Intel (INTC) fell 3% in pre-market trading after the company late yesterday predicted that gross margins, or the percentage of sales remaining after deductng costs of production, will be about 62% in Q2, below analysts' projections of 63.5%.

Today's Market Focus

• June 10-year T-notes this morning are up +3 ticks. T-note prices Tuesday settled lower on reduced safe-haven demand as stocks rallied when the IMF raised its global GDP forecasts and after European debt concerns eased when Spain raised more than its maximum target at a bill auction: TYM2 -8.5, FVM2 -3.2. Other bearish factors included carry-over weakness from a slide in bund prices after the Apr German ZEW economic sentiment unexpectedly rose to a 22-month high and after St. Louis Fed President Bullard said that U.S. economic growth will quicken from a range of 2.5% to 2.7% during Q1 of 2012 to 3.0% for the entire year and that the Fed will probably need to tighten policy during the "last part of 2013." Limiting declines in T-note prices was the unexpected fall in Mar housing starts (-5.8% to 654,000 versus expectations of +1.0% to 705,000) which fell to a 5-month low.
• The dollar index this morning is higher with USD/JPY +0.54 yen and EUR/USD -0.50 cents. The dollar index Tuesday retreated and closed lower on reduced safe-haven demand after global stocks rallied sharply when the IMF hiked its global GDP forecasts along with reduced European debt concerns after Spain sold more than its maximum target of bills at auction: Dollar Index -0.079, USD/JPY +0.437, EUR/USD -0.00144. Other bearish factors for the dollar included the unexpected increase in the Apr German ZEW economic sentiment survey which rose to a 22-month high, and after weaker then expected U.S. economic data on Mar U.S. housing starts and Mar U.S. industrial production indicated uneven U.S. economic growth.
• May crude oil prices this morning are trading down -12 cents a barrel and May gasoline is -4.27 cents per gallon at a 1-1/2 month low. Crude oil prices on Tuesday settled mixed as crude gained on reduced European debt concerns after Spanish bond yields fell along with the action by the IMF to hike its global GDP forecast, but gasoline weakened on unwinding of crack spreads and the Brent-WTI spread, which prompted liquidation of long gasoline futures positions: CLM12 +1.27, RBM2 -3.30. May crude rallied up to a 2-week high. Bullish factors included an easing of European sovereign-debt concerns after Spain sold more than its maximum target of bills and after the IMF raised its global GDP outlook for 2012 and 2013. Bearish factors included liquidation of long gasoline positions as crack spreads were unwound along with the outlook for Wednesday's weekly DOE inventory report to show that U.S. crude supplies rose to a 10-month high. Expectations for the weekly DOE inventory report on Wednesday are for crude oil stockpiles to climb +1.6 million bbl, gasoline supplies to fall -1.0 million bbl, distillate inventories to remain unchanged and the refinery utilization rate to increase +0.7 to 84.5% of capacity.

Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (sorted by mkt cap): QCOM-Qualcomm (consensus $0.96), ABT-Abbott Labs (1.00), AXP-American Express (1.01), VMW-VMware (0.60), EBAY-Ebay (0.52), BLK-BlackRock (3.04), YUM-Yum! Brands (0.73), PNC-PNC Financial Services Group (1.48), KMI-Kinder Morgan (0.31), HAL-Halliburton (0.86), BK-Bank of New York Mellon (0.52), KMP-Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (0.64), SCCO-Southern Copper (0.61), SWK-Stanley Black & Decker (1.12), MAR-Marriott International (0.29).
Global Financial Calendar

Wednesday 4/18/12
United States
0700 ET	Weekly MBA mortgage applications.
United Kingdom
0430 ET	Minutes of the Apr 4-5 BOE policy meeting.
0430 ET	Mar U.K. jobless claims change expected +6,000, Feb +7,200. Mar claimant count rate expected 5.0%, Feb 5.0%.
0430 ET	Feb U.K. avg weekly earnings expected +1.2% 3-mo/year-over-year, Jan +1.4% 3-mo/year-over-year.
0430 ET	Feb U.K. ILO unemployment rate expected unchanged at 8.4%, Jan unchanged at 8.4%.
Euro-Zone
0500 ET	Feb Euro-Zone construction output, Jan -0.8% m/m and -1.4% y/y.
0700 ET	European Commission releases a statement on growth and jobs in Greece.
Canada
1030 ET	BOC releases its monetary policy report.
Japan
1830 ET	BOJ Governor Shirakawa speaks at an event in New York.
1950 ET	Mar Japan exports expected +0.2% y/y, Feb -2.7% y/y. Mar imports expected +7.0% y/y, Feb +9.2% y/y.

Barchart.com provides Financial Quotes, Charts and Technical Analysis for Stock and Commodity Traders.

Barchart Morning Call 1/18

Barchart Morning Call

Barchart.com - Wed Jan 18, 7:00AM CST

Overnight Developments

• Global stocks this morning are mixed with the Euro Stoxx 50 down -0.06% and Mar S&Ps up +2.40 points. The dollar and Treasuries are lower and most commodities rose after the IMF proposed a $500 billion expansion of its lending resources to insulate the global economy against any worsening of Europe's debt crisis. The IMF is pushing China, Brazil, Russia, India, Japan and oil exporting nations to be the top contributors to the bailout fund that may be initiated at the Feb 25-26 meeting of G-20 finance ministers and central bankers in Mexico City. The IMF currently has $385 billion available for lending and wants to boost that amount to $885 billion. A positive for European bank stocks was the decline in the 3-month cross-currency basis swap, the rate banks pay to convert euro interest payments into dollars, to 78 bp below the euro interbank offered rate, a 5-1/4 month low. Limiting gains in stocks and the euro was the action by Germany's Economy Ministry to cut its 2012 German GDP forecast to +0.7%, down from an Oct forecast of +1.0% as the debt crisis dampens the outlook for sustaining exports. The World Bank also cut its growth estimates as they reduced their 2012 global growth forecast to +2.5% from a June estimate of +3.6%, saying a recession in the Euro-Zone threatens to exacerbate a slowdown in emerging markets.
• Asian stocks today closed mixed with Japan up +0.99%, China -1.56%, Australia +0.05%, South Korea unchnaged, India -0.09%. Asian stocks found support after German investor confidence rose to a 6-month high, which suggests concern over the European debt crisis is receding. Energy and raw-material producers gained as most commodities rallied, while Japanese makers of factory equipment rose after Japan's Machine Tool Builders' Association said that Japan Dec orders for machine tools climbed +17.4% y/y, a number Credit Suisse AG said was "unexpectedly firm." Chinese stocks closed lower as property developers slid on concern a property-market slowdown will crimp demand for building materials and consumer goods. China's 7-day repurchase rate, a gauge of funding availability in the financial system, jumped 58 bp to 7.72%, the highest in 6-3/4 months as banks hoard cash in the run up to the Lunar New Year holiday next week.

Overnight U.S. Stock News

• March S&Ps this morning are trading up +2.40 points. The US stock market on Monday settled higher on speculation a slowdown in Chinese growth will prompt its government to ease monetary policy, while European debt concerns eased after German business sentiment surged and Spanish and Greek borrowing costs declined: Dow Jones +0.48%, S&P 500 +0.36%, Nasdaq Composite +0.64%. The S&P 500 and the Dow posted 5-1/2 month highs and the Nasdaq climbed to a 2-1/2 month high. Bullish factors included (1) speculation that China will avoid a hard landing after Q4 China GDP expanded at a +8.9% y/y pace, although stronger than expectations of +8.7% y/y, was the slowest pace of growth in 2-1/2 years and also bolstered speculation the Chinese government will ease monetary policy, (2) reduced European debt concerns after the Jan German ZEW survey of economic sentiment surged to its best level in 6-months (+32.8 to -21.6) and as borrowing costs for Spain and Greece declined when their yields fell at auctions of government debt, and (3) the stronger-than-expected Jan Empire manufacturing index which expanded at its fastest pace in 9-months (+5.3 to 13.5 versus expectations of +1.0 to 10.5).
• Bearish factors on Monday included (1) the action by Standard & Poor's to downgrade the European Financial Stability Facility to AA+ from AAA, which may reduce the lending capacity of the bailout fund, (2) concern the European sovereign debt crisis may worsen after the Managing Director of Fitch Ratings said Greece is insolvent and will default on its debts as it is unlikely to be able to honor a Mar 20 bond payment of 14.5 billion euros, and (3) weakness in cruise-line companies after Barclays Capital said the action by Carnival's Costa Concordia to run aground off the coast of Italy will hurt the cruise industry as the incident happened at the start of the industry's peak booking season.
• Yahoo! (YHOO) climbed 4.1% in pre-market trading after co-founder Jerry Yang stepped down, which fueled speculation that the company will sell its Asian assets valued at more than $10 billion.

Today's Market Focus

• March 10-year T-notes this morning are up +3 ticks. T-note prices on Tuesday settled slightly higher as European debt concerns and Fed buying of long-term Treasuries offset reduced safe-haven demand after the S&P 500 rose to a 5-1/2 month high: TYH2 +1.5, FVH2 +0.7, EDM2 +1.0. Bullish factors included (1) the action by the Fed to purchase $2.75 billion of Treasuries maturing between 2036 and 2041 as part of its Operation Twist program to replace $400 billion of shorter-maturity Treasuries in its holdings with longer-term debt to keep long-term rates low and (2) increased safe-haven demand for Treasuries on concern the European sovereign debt crisis may worsen after the Managing Director of Fitch Ratings said Greece is insolvent and will default on its debts as it is unlikely to be able to honor a Mar 20 bond payment of 14.5 billion euros. Bearish factors included (1) decreased safe-haven demand for Treasuries after stocks rallied when Q4 China GDP expanded at a +8.9% y/y pace, stronger than expectations of +8.7% y/y which reduced concerns of a hard-landing for China, (2) reduced European debt concerns after the Jan German ZEW survey of economic sentiment surged to its best level in 6-months and as borrowing costs for Spain and Greece declined when their yields fell at auctions of government debt, and (3) the stronger-than-expected Jan Empire manufacturing index which expanded at its fastest pace in 9-months (+5.3 to 13.5 versus expectations of +1.0 to 10.5).
• The dollar index this morning is lower with the dollar/yen unchanged and the euro/dollar +0.49 cents. The dollar index on Tuesday settled lower after the euro gained when Jan German business sentiment surged and as Spanish and Greek borrowing costs declined: Dollar Index +0.745, USDJPY +0.204, EURUSD -0.01352. Bearish factors included (1) the surge in the Jan German ZEW survey of economic sentiment to its best level in 6 months, (2) the decline in the borrowing costs of Spain and Greece when yields fell at auctions of government debt, which reduces concern that the indebted European countries will be able to finance their debts, and (3) reduced safe-haven demand for the dollar after the S&P 500 rallied to a 5-1/2 month high. Bullish factors included (1) increased safe-haven demand for the dollar when the Managing Director of Fitch Ratings said Greece is insolvent and will default on its debts as it is unlikely to be able to honor a Mar 20 bond payment of 14.5 billion euros, (2) the action by Standard & Poor's to downgrade the European Financial Stability Facility to AA+ from AAA, which may reduce the lending capacity of the bailout fund, and (3) concern about the European banking system as lenders continue to refrain from lending due to counter-party risk after Euro-Zone banks parked 501.9 billion euros in overnight funds at the ECB on Monday, the most since the euro was introduced in 1999.
• Feb crude oil prices this morning are up +45 cents a barrel and Feb gasoline is +0.25 of a cent per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices Tuesday settled sharply higher as the dollar weakened, Jan German investor confidence surged and as France pushed for faster enforcement of the EU's proposed ban on oil imports from Iran: CLG12 +$2.01, RBG12 +3.71. Bullish factors included (1) the weaker dollar, (2) the greater-than-expected increase in the Jan German ZEW survey of economic sentiment to its best level in 6 months, which reduces concern the European debt crisis will hinder economic growth and energy demand, (3) comments from 2 unnamed French officials who said that France wants the embargo on Iranian crude to be delayed by no more than 3 months rather than the 6-month delay other EU members are seeking, (4) comments from Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi who said that Saudi Arabia aims to stabilize the average crude price worldwide at $100 a barrel in 2012, and (5) the rally in the S&P 500 to a 5-1/2 month high, which bolsters confidence in the economic outlook and fuel demand. Bearish factors included (1) the decline in Q4 China GDP to +8.9% y/y, the weakest pace of growth in 2-1/2 years and signals reduced fuel demand in China, the world's second-largest crude consumer, (2) concern the European debt crisis may worsen after the Managing Director of Fitch Ratings said that Greece is insolvent and will default on its debts as it is unlikely to be able to honor a Mar 20 bond payment of 14.5 billion euros, and (3) carry-over weakness from a fall in natural gas prices to a 10-year nearest-futures low as a milder-than-normal U.S. winter reduces heating demand.

Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap): USB-US Bancorp (BEST earnings consensus $0.63), GS-Goldman Sachs Group (1.23), EBAY-Ebay (0.57), PNC-PNC Financial Services (1.49), KMP-Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (0.61), KMI-Kinder Morgan Inc. (0.29), BK-Bank of New York Mellon (0.53), STT-State Street Corp. (0.94), SCHW-Charles Schwab (0.13), FAST-Fastenal (0.29), NTRS-Northern Trust (0.68), XLNX-Xilinx (0.38), FFIV-F5 Networks (1.01), SLM-SLM Corp. (0.49), CLC-CLARCOR (0.67).
Global Financial Calendar

Wednesday 1/18/12
United States
0700 ET	Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous +4.5% with purchase mortgage sub-index +8.1% and refinancing sub-index +3.3%.
0745 ET	ICSC (Int?l Council of Shopping Centers) weekly retailer sales.
0830 ET	Dec PPI expected +0.1% m/m and +5.1% y/y, Nov +0.3% m/m and +5.7% y/y. Dec PPI ex food & energy expected +0.1% m/m and +2.8% y/y, Nov +0.1% m/m and +2.9% y/y.
0855 ET	Redbook weekly retailer sales.
0900 ET	Nov net long-term TIC flows expected +$40.0 billion, Oct +$4.8 billion.
0915 ET	Dec industrial production expected +0.5%, Nov -0.2%. Dec capacity utilization expected +0.3 to 78.1%, Nov 0.2 to 77.8%.
0930 ET	Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo testifies before the Financial Services Committee on the proposed Volcker Rule and its impact on the economy.
1000 ET	Jan NAHB housing market index expected +1 to 22, Dec +2 to 21.
1130 ET	Weekly 4-week T-bill auction.
United Kingdom
0430 ET	Dec U.K. jobless claims change expected +7,000, Nov +3,000. Dec claimant count rate expected 5.0%, Nov 5.0%.
0430 ET	Nov U.K. avg weekly earnings expected +2.0% 3-mo/year-over-year, Oct +2.0% 3-mo/year-over-year.
0430 ET	Nov U.K. weekly earnings ex-bonus expected +1.9% 3-mo/year-over-year, Oct +1.8% 3-mo/year-over-year.
0430 ET	Nov U.K. ILO unemployment rate expected 8.3% 3-months, Oct 8.3% 3-months.
1901 ET	Dec U.K. nationwide consumer confidence expected -2 to 38, Nov +4 to 40.
Euro-Zone
0500 ET	Nov Euro-Zone construction output, Oct -1.4% m/m and -2.8% y/y.

Barchart.com provides Financial Quotes, Charts and Technical Analysis for Stock and Commodity Traders.