Monday, August 31st, 2015View Older Reports
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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
September E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 -0.83%) are down -0.82% and European stocks are down -0.52% as Chinese stocks fell on concern China's efforts to prop up its equity market will fail. Another negative for global stock and commodity markets was hawkish comments from Fed and ECB members at the Kansas City Fed's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Fed Vice Chair Fischer said there's "good reason" to believe that inflation is poised to move higher and ECB Vice President Constancio said that the link between real activity and inflation in the Eurozone has "strengthened." Losses in European stocks were contained after German Jul retail sales came in stronger than expected. Asian stocks closed mostly lower: Japan -1.28%, Hong Kong +0.27%, China -0.82%, Taiwan +1.94%, Australia -1.08%, Singapore -1.17%, South Korea +0.19%, India -0.41%. China's Shanghai Composite fell even after people familiar with the matter said China's securities regulator asked brokerages to increase stock buybacks and step up their support for stock prices by contributing 100 billion yuan ($15.7 billion) to China's market rescue fund. Japanese stock prices were also pressured after Japan Jul industrial production came in weaker than expected.The dollar index (DXY00 -0.14%) is down -0.13%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.21% after Eurozone Aug CPI rose at a faster pace than expected. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.36%.
Sep T-note prices (ZNU15 +0.09%) are up +3 ticks.
Comments from Fed Vice Chair Fischer Saturday at the Kansas City Fed's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, WY, suggest he favors an interest rate increase sooner rather than later when he said "given the apparent stability of inflation expectations, there is good reason to believe that inflation will move higher as the forces holding down inflation dissipate further."
ECB Vice President Constancio said at the Fed's symposium in Jackson Hole, WY, that "the link between inflation and real activity appears to have strengthened in the Eurozone recently."
The Eurozone Aug CPI estimate rose +0.2% y/y, higher than expectations of +0.1% y/y. Aug core CPI rose +1.0% y/y, higher than expectations of +0.9% y/y.
Japan Jul industrial production fell -0.6% m/m and rose +0.2% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.1% m/m and +0.8% y/y.
German Jul retail sales rose +1.4% m/m and +3.3% y/y, stronger than expectations of +1.1% m/m and +1.7% y/y.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Aug Milwaukee ISM (expected +2.88 to 50.00, Jul +0.57 to 47.12), (2) Aug Chicago PMI (expected -0.02 at 54.5, Jul +4.7 to 54.7), (3) Aug Dallas Fed manufacturing activity (expected +0.8 to -3.8, Jul +2.4 to -4.6).None of the Russell 1000 companies report earnings today.
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today include: GC Aesthetics (GCAA), Ardelyx (ARDX), Accelerize (ACLZ), NovaBay Pharmaceuticals (NBY).
Equity conferences this week include: European Society of Cardiology Meeting on Mon-Wed, Longbow Research Industrial Manufacturing & Technology Investor Conference on Tue, Simmons Gleneagles Energy Conference on Tue-Wed, KeyBanc Capital Markets Basic Materials and Packaging Conference on Wed, Global Hunter Securities Industrials Conference on Thu.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
United Technologies (UTX -0.03%) was downgraded to 'Equal Weight' from 'Overweight' at Barclays.Intel (INTC +2.53%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at Northland.
Twitter (TWTR +1.40%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at SunTrust.
Morgan Stanley (MS -0.73%) and Goldman Sachs (GS -0.77%) were both upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Evercore ISI.
J.C. Penney (JCP +5.55%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Deutsche Bank.
CNOOC (CEO -1.67%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at BofA/Merrill Lynch.
Southern Copper (SCCO +1.56%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Overweight' at JPMorgan Chase.
Stanley Black & Decker (SWK -0.23%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Neutral' at Macquarie.
Baidu (BIDU +0.05%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Jefferies.
Freeport McMoRan (FCX +3.04%) , which has fallen over 70% in the past year, looks oversold, according to Barron's.
Barron's said that With its shares down about 50% from all-time highs, Whole Foods Market (WFM -0.88%) looks cheap.
Kopp Investment Advisors reported a 16.1% stake in Superconductor Technologies (SCON unch) .
Apollo Principal Holdings reported a 5.7% stake in RCS Capital (RCAP unch) .
Integrated Core Strategies reported a 4.7% passive stake in Whiting Petroleum (WLL +5.07%) .
MARKET COMMENTS
Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 -0.83%) this morning are down -16.25 points (-0.82%). Friday's closes: S&P 500 +0.063%, Dow Jones -0.07%, Nasdaq +0.10%. The S&P 500 on Friday closed little changed. Stocks were undercut by the +0.3% increase in U.S. Jul personal spending, less than expectations of +0.4%, and by the unexpected -1.0 point decline in U.S. Aug University of Michigan consumer sentiment to 91.0, weaker than expectations of +0.1 to 93.0. Stocks found support on Friday's +4.8% rally in China's Shanghai Composite and strength in energy producers after crude oil rallied to a 2-week high.Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU15 +0.09%) this morning are up +3 ticks. Friday's closes: TYU5 -5.00, FVU5 -7.75. Sep T-notes on Friday closed lower on the stable U.S. stock market and Friday's +4.8% rally in the Chinese Shanghai index. T-notes were also hurt by Cleveland Fed President Mester's comment that the U.S. economy "is solid and could support an increase in interest rates" despite recent market turmoil. T-notes found support on the decline in the U.S. Jul core PCE deflator, the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, to a 4-1/3 year low of +1.2% y/y.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.14%) this morning is down -0.128 (0.13%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0024 (+0.21%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.44 (-0.36%). Friday's closes: Dollar Index +0.496 (+0.52%), EUR/USD -0.00698 (-0.62%), USD/JPY +0.668 (+0.55%). The dollar index on Friday climbed to a 1-week high and closed higher on the increases in U.S. Jul personal spending and income that were close to expectations, and weakness in EUR/USD which fell to a 1-week low on speculation the ECB may expand stimulus after ECB Executive Board member Praet said that policy makers are ready to act if they perceive a material shift in inflation risks.
Oct crude oil (CLV15 -1.77%) this morning is down -89 cents (-1.97%) and Oct gasoline (RBV15 -2.08%) is down -0.0250 (-2.51%). Friday's closes: CLV5 +2.81 (+6.60%), RBV5 +0.0635 (+5.78%). Oct crude and gasoline prices on Friday closed higher with Oct crude at a 2-week high. Crude oil found support on the sharp +4.8% rally in the Shanghai index on Friday and on the close-to-expected increases in U.S. Jul personal spending and income, which were positive for economic growth and energy demand.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR08/31/2015
| US | 0900 ET | Aug Milwaukee ISM expected +2.88 to 50.00, Jul +0.57 to 47.12. |
| 0945 ET | Aug Chicago PMI expected -0.2 at 54.5, Jul +4.7 to 54.7. | |
| 1030 ET | Aug Dallas Fed manufacturing activity expected +0.8 to -3.8, Jul +2.4 to -4.6. | |
| 1100 ET | USDA weekly grain export inspections. | |
| 1600 ET | USDA weekly crop progress. | |
| JPN | 0000 ET | Japan Jul vehicle production, Jun -5.3% y/y. |
| 0100 ET | Japan Jul housing starts expected +11.0% y/y to 938,000 annualized, Jun +16.3% y/y to 1.033 million annualized. | |
| 0100 ET | Japan Jul construction orders, Jun +15.4% y/y. | |
| 1950 ET | Japan Q2 capital spending expected +8.9% y/y, Q1 +7.3% y/y. Q2 capital spending ex-software expected +11.3% y/y, Q1 +8.1% y/y. | |
| 2135 ET | Revised Japan Aug Nikkei manufacturing PMI. | |
| GER | 0200 ET | German Jul retail sales expected +1.3% m/m and +1.7% y/y, Jun -2.3% m/m and +5.1% y/y. |
| EUR | 0500 ET | Eurozone Aug CPI estimate expected +0.1% y/y, Jul +0.2% y/y. Aug core CPI expected +0.9% y/y, Jul +1.0% y/y. |
| CHI | 2100 ET | China Aug manufacturing PMI expected -0.3 to 49.7, Jul 50.0. Aug non-manufacturing PMI, Jul 53.9. |
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