Showing posts with label WRB. Show all posts
Showing posts with label WRB. Show all posts

Wednesday, July 8, 2015

BARCHART MORNING CALL 7/8

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
September E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 -0.75%) are down -0.65% on concern that a sell-off in Chinese stocks will spread across the globe. European stocks are up +0.87% on optimism that the ECB will be able to contain fallout from the Greek debt crisis after ECB Governing Council member Visco said that the ECB is ready to use all means at its disposal in the Greek financial crisis. European leaders on Tuesday ordered Greece to accept a rescue package by Sunday or face expulsion from the Eurozone. Weakness in European automakers is limiting gains in the overall market after China Jun passenger-vehicle sales dropped for the first time in more than 2 years. Asian stocks closed sharply lower: Japan -3.14%, Hong Kong -5.84%, China -5.90%, Taiwan -2.96%, Australia -2.00%, Singapore -1.67%, South Korea -1.25%, India -1.72%. The rout on Chinese stocks continued today with the Shanghai Composite falling to a fresh 3-1/2 month low as government measures to arrest the slide have so far proven ineffective. The sell-off in Chinese shares has spread throughout Asia with Japan's Nikkei Stock Index falling to a 1-1/2 month low.
Commodity prices are mixed. Aug crude oil (CLQ15 +0.52%) is up +0.71%, Aug gasoline (RBQ15 +1.78%) is up +1.79%. Metals prices are mixed. Aug gold (GCQ15 +0.32%) is up +0.08%. Sep copper (HGU15 -0.18%) is down -0.10% at a fresh 6-year low. Agricultural prices are weaker.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.28%) is down -0.180 (-0.19%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0006 (+0.05%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.89 (-0.73%) at a 1-1/2 month low.

Sep T-note prices (ZNU15 +0.06%) are up +1.5 ticks at a 5-week high as the slump in stocks boosts the safe-haven demand for Treasuries.
Investors trying to get out of Chinese stocks have found that 1,331 companies, or 72% of stocks on mainland exchanges have halted trading as trading curbs make it impossible to sell the stocks. Another 747 companies fell by their 10% limit on Wednesday as buyers were nowhere to be found. That suggests that today's 5.9% plunge in the Shanghai Composite Index was understated. Actions taken by the government thus far have been unable to stabilize the market as the Shanghai Composite has fallen 32% from its 7-1/3 year high on Jun 12.
China Jun passenger-vehicle sales fell -3.2% y/y to 1.43 million units, the first decline in more than 2 years.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) weekly MBA mortgage applications (last week -4.7% with purchase sub-index -4.1% and refi sub-index -5.2%), (2) the Treasury's auction of $21 billion of 10-year T-notes, (3) the minutes of the Jun 16-17 FOMC meeting, (4) a speech by San Francisco Fed President John Williams on the economic outlook to the International Conference of Commercial Bank Economists in Los Angeles, (5) May consumer credit (expected +$18.5 billion after April's +$20.541 billion), and (6) EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
One of the Russell 1000 companies reports earnings today: Alcoa (consensus $0.23).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today include: Clovis Oncology (CLVS).
Equity conferences this week: none.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Navistar (NAV -1.53%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at BB&T.
Harley-Davidson (HOG +0.37%) was downgraded to 'Sector Perform' from 'Outperform' at RBC Capital.
Reuters reported that JPMorgan Chase (JPM -0.79%) agreed to pay at least $125 million to settle probes that the bank sought to improperly collect and sell consumer credit card data.
W. R. Berkley (WRB +1.80%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Goldman Sachs.
Advance Auto Parts (AAP +0.07%) will replace Family Dollar (FDO +0.05%) in the S&P 500 as of the close of trading today.
St. Jude Medical (STJ +1.38%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at Wells Fargo.
Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS +0.13%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'In-Line' at Imperial Capital.
Rolls-Royce (RYCEY -5.32%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Outperform' at Exane BNP Paribas.
Pearson (PSO -0.16%) was downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Hold' at Berenberg.
Tourbillon reported a 14.9% passive stake in Green Plains Partners (GPP +1.39%) .
Vanda Pharmaceuticals (VNDA -1.91%) announced that the European Commission approved its Hetlioz drug for the treatment of Non-24-Hour Sleep-Wake Disorder in totally blind adults in the European Union.
Novartis' (NVS +0.56%) Entresto drug was approved by FDA for treatment of heart failure.
Gilder, Gagnon, Howe & Co. reported a 13.18% passive stake in Papa Murphy's (FRSH +3.15%) .
MARKET COMMENTS
September E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 -0.75%) this morning are down -13.50 points (-0.65%). Tuesday's closes: S&P 500 +0.61%, Dow Jones +0.53%, Nasdaq +0.243%. The S&P 500 on Tuesday recovered from a 3-1/2 month low and closed higher on supportive factors including hopes that a Greek bailout agreement will be reached by Sunday and the unexpected +29,000 increase in U.S. May JOLTS job openings to 5.363 million, stronger than expectations of 5.300 million and the most since the data series began in 2000. Bearish factors included a plunge in European stocks to a 5-1/2 month low on Grexit concerns and weakness in commodity producers after crude oil dropped to a 3-month low and copper sank to a 5-month low.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU15 +0.06%) this morning are up +1.5 ticks at a new 5-week high. Tuesday's closes: TYU5 +11.50, FVU5 +4.75. Sep T-notes on Tuesday rallied to a 5-week high on (1) safe-haven concerns sparked by Grexit and the Chinese stock market melt-down, and (2) reduced inflation concerns as a plunge in commodity prices pushed the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation rate down to a 3-week low.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.28%) this morning is down -0.180 (-0.19%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0006 (+0.05%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.89 (-0.73%) at a 1-1/2 month low. Tuesday's closes: Dollar Index -0.118 (-0.12%), EUR/USD -0.00446 (-0.40%), USD/JPY -0.036 (-0.03%). The dollar index on Tuesday fell back from a 5-week high and closed lower on reduced safe-haven demand after a recovery in U.S. stocks. The dollar posted a 5-week high early in the session on signs of strength in the U.S. labor market that may push the Fed to raise interest rates after U.S. May JOLTS job openings rose to their highest since the data began in 2000.
Aug WTI crude oil (CLQ15 +0.52%) this morning is up +37 cents (+0.71%). Aug gasoline (RBQ15 +1.78%) is up +0.0348 (+1.79%). Tuesday's closes: CLQ5 -0.68 (-1.28%), RBQ5 +0.0257 (+1.32%). Aug crude oil and gasoline Tuesday settled mixed. Crude oil fell to a 3-month low on (1) the EIA's hike in its 2015 U.S. crude production estimate to 9.47 million bpd from a 9.43 million bpd estimate last month, and (2) speculation that a nuclear deal with Iran may be imminent, which would pave the way for at least a doubling of Iranian oil exports.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR07/08/2015
US0700 ETWeekly MBA mortgage applications, previous -4.7% with purchase sub-index -4.1% and refi sub-index -5.2%.
1030 ETEIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
1300 ETTreasury auctions $21 billion of 10-year T-notes.
1400 ETMinutes of the Jun 16-17 FOMC meeting.
1400 ETSan Francisco Fed President John Williams speaks on the economic outlook to the International Conference of Commercial Bank Economists in Los Angeles.
1500 ETMay consumer credit expected +$18.5 billion, Apr +$20.541 billion.
JPN0030 ETJapan Jun bankruptcies, May -13.18% y/y.
0100 ETJapan Jun eco-watchers survey current expected -0.3 to 53.0, May 53.3. Jun eco-watchers survey outlook expected -0.5 to 54.0. May 54.5
1950 ETJapan May machine orders expected -4.9% m/m and +16.7% y/y, Apr +3.8% m/m and +3.0% y/y.
EUR0500 ETECB Executive Board member Benoit Coeure speaks on The International Role of the Euro at an event in Frankfurt.
UK1901 ETUK Jun RICS house price balance, May 34%.
CHI2130 ETChina Jun CPI expected +1.3% y/y, May +1.2% y/y. China Jun PPI expected -4.6% y/y, May -4.6% y/y.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR07/08/2015
CompanyTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Alcoa IncAA US17:00Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
United Continental Holdings IncUAL US17:00June 2015 Sales and Revenue Release - Operational Performance2015
Alcoa IncAA USAft-mktQ2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20150.226
Costco Wholesale CorpCOST USAft-mktJune 2015 Sales and Revenue Release2015
Advance Auto Parts IncAAP USAft-mktAdvanced Auto Parts Inc. Replaces Family Dollar Stores in S&P 500
Advance Auto Parts IncAAP USAft-mktJack in the Box Replaces Advanced Auto Parts in S&P MidCap 400
Healthcare Trust of America IncHTA USAnnual General Meeting
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Tuesday, July 7, 2015

BARCHART MORNING CALL 7/7

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
September E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 -0.10%) are up +0.25%, although European stocks are down -0.57% at a fresh 4-3/4 month low as European leaders prepare to meet to discuss Greece's economic crisis. The ECB maintained the level of Emergency Liquidity Assistance to Greek banks at 88.6 billion euros on Monday, while tightening terms related to collateral as it raised the haircut on Greek debt to 45%. Greek banks and its stock market will remain shut through Wednesday. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +1.31%, Hong Kong -1.03%, China -1.29%, Taiwan -0.06%, Australia +1.94%, Singapore +0.24%, South Korea -0.10%, India -0.13%. The sell-off in Chinese stocks continued for the fourth time in five days as the Shanghai Composite fell to a 3-1/2 month low. Deleveraging of stocks purchased on margin has fueled declines as traders cut 93.6 billion yuan worth of stock bought on margin on the Shanghai Stock exchange since Monday, the most since at least 2010. Also, foreign investors are exiting Chinese stocks at a record pace as net selling through the Hong Kong-Shanghai exchange link reached 10.3 billion yuan today, extending sales to 23.7 billion yuan in the past 2 days, the most since the link started in November.
Commodity prices are mixed. Aug crude oil (CLQ15 -0.70%) is up +0.78%, Aug gasoline (RBQ15 -0.24%) is up +0.95%. Metals prices are weaker. Aug gold (GCQ15 -0.17%) is down -0.72%. Sep copper (HGU15 -1.98%) is down -2.44% at a new 5-month low. Agricultural prices are lower.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.57%) is up +0.54% at a 1-month high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.77% at a 1-week low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.06%.

Sep T-note prices (ZNU15 +0.39%) are up +10.5 ticks on carry-over support from a rally in German bunds to a 1-month high.
In a document published on its website today, the ECB added "moral hazard" to its Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) rules in an attempt to clarify the conditions to which banks may access emergency aid. The ECB warned that "moral hazard" could be a reason to object to ELA it allows banks to access saying that "the objective of ELA is to support solvent credit institutions facing temporary liquidity problems. It is not a monetary-policy instrument." The reference to moral hazard indicates the ECB is worried that bending the liquidity rules for Greece may lead future Eurozone members to act less responsibly.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) May U.S. trade deficit (expected -$42.75 billion after April's -$40.90 billion), (2) May JOLTS job openings (expected -76,000 to 5.300 million after April's +267,000 to 5.376 million), and (3) the Treasury's auction of $24 billion of 3-year T-notes.
One of the Russell 1000 companies reports earnings today: MSC Industrial Direct (consensus $0.96).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today include: none.
Equity conferences this week: none.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Lloyds Banking (LYG -2.03%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Canaccord.
Broadcom (BRCM -1.34%) was downgraded to 'Perform' from 'Outperform' at Oppenheimer.
Marvell (MRVL -1.19%) was upgraded to 'Perform' from 'Underperform' at Oppenheimer.
Dillard's (DDS -0.39%) was downgraded to 'Underperform' from 'Neutral' at BofA/Merrill Lynch.
Disney (DIS +0.63%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Neutral' at Atlantic Equities.
BTIG initiated Teva (TEVA +0.16%) with a 'Buy' rating and a $77 price target.
Baxter (BAX -0.68%) was downgraded to 'Market Perform' from 'Outperform' at BMO Capital.
W. R. Berkley (WRB +1.19%) was upgraded to 'Hold' from 'Sell' at Deutsche Bank.
Electronic Arts (EA +0.31%) and Kansas City Southern (KSU -0.82%) were both upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at UBS.
Tesla (TSLA -0.11%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Deutsche Bank.
Advance Auto Parts (AAP +0.81%) will replace Family Dollar (FDO +0.05%) in the S&P 500 as of the close of trading on Wednesday July 8.
A. Schulman (SHLM -2.25%) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 72 cents, below consensus of 77 cents, and then lowered guidance on 2015 EPS to$2.37-$2.42, weaker than consensus of $2.47.
Luxor Capital Group reported a 5.03% passive stake in Northstar Realty (NRF -1.14%) .
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD -2.37%) lowered guidance on Q2 revenue view to down 8% versus Q1, weaker than an earlier estimate of down 3%, plus or minus 3%.
MARKET COMMENTS
September E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 -0.10%) this morning are up +5.25 points (+0.25%). Monday's closes: S&P 500 -0.39%, Dow Jones -0.26%, Nasdaq -0.33%. The S&P 500 on Monday closed lower on (1) a slide in European stocks to a 4-3/4 month low as financial stocks plunged on Grexit concerns after Greece voters decisively voted No in Sunday's referendum, (2) the +0.3 point increase in the U.S. Jun ISM non-manufacturing index to 56.0, weaker than expectations of +0.7 to 56.4, and (3) weakness in oil producers on the plunge in oil prices. Stocks recovered from their worst levels after Greek Finance Minster Varoufakis resigned, which raised hopes that Prime Minister Tsipras may be ready to accede to a bailout deal.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU15 +0.39%) this morning are up +10.5 ticks. Monday's closes: TYU5 +28.50, FVU5 +15.25. Sep T-notes on Monday gapped up to a 2-week high and closed higher on (1) Grexit concerns after Sunday's referendum vote, and (2) ideas that the Fed might be forced to delay a rate hike by the Greek crisis. T-notes fell back from their best levels after stocks recovered on speculation the ECB will contain any negative fallout from the Greek crisis.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.57%) this morning is up +0.523 (+0.54%) at a fresh 1-month high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0085 (-0.77%) at a 1-week low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.07 (-0.06%). Monday's closes: Dollar Index +0.185 (+0.19%), EUR/USD -0.0028 (-0.25%), USD/JPY -0.486 (-0.39%). The dollar index on Monday climbed to a 1-month high and settled higher on the decline in EUR/USD to a 1-week low on Grexit concerns. However, the rally in the dollar index was curbed by safe-haven demand for the yen and by news that Greek Finance Minster Varoufakis resigned, which means that Prime Minister Tsipras may be ready for a bailout deal.
Aug WTI crude oil (CLQ15 -0.70%) this morning is up +41 cents (+0.78%). Aug gasoline (RBQ15 -0.24%) is up +0.0183 (+0.95%). Monday's closes: CLQ5 -2.99 (-5.39%), RBQ5 -0.0651 (-3.25%). Aug crude oil and gasoline gapped lower Monday and finished sharply lower with Aug crude at a 2-1/2 month low and Aug gasoline at a 1-month low. Negative factors included dollar strength, Grexit concerns, and the possibility of an Iran nuclear deal this week, which would pave the way for at least a doubling of Iranian oil exports.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR07/07/2015
US0830 ETMay trade balance expected -$42.75 billion, Apr -$40.90 billion.
1000 ETMay JOLTS job openings expected -76,000 to 5.300 million, Apr +267,000 to 5.376 million.
1300 ETTreasury auctions $24 billion of 3-year T-notes.
GER0200 ETGerman May industrial production expected +0.1% m/m and +2.6% y/y, Apr +0.9% m/m and +1.4% y/y.
UK0430 ETUK May industrial production expected -0.2% m/m and +1.6% y/y, Apr +0.4% m/m and +1.2% y/y.
0430 ETUK May manufacturing production expected +0.1% m/m and +1.8% y/y, Apr -0.4% m/m and +0.2% y/y.
1901 ETUK Jun BRC shop price index, May -1.9% y/y.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR07/07/2015
CompanyTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
MSC Industrial Direct Co IncMSM US7:00Q3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20150.962
MSC Industrial Direct Co IncMSM US8:30Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Columbus McKinnon Corp/NYCMCO US9:00Investor and Analyst DayY 2015
A Schulman IncSHLM US10:00Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Stifel Financial CorpSF US12:00Annual General Meeting
Navidea Biopharmaceuticals IncNAVB US13:00Business Update Call
Container Store Group Inc/TheTCS US16:30Q1 2016 Earnings CallQ1 2016
Container Store Group Inc/TheTCS USAft-mktQ1 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ1 2016-0.124
Allegiant Travel CoALGT USJune 2015 Sales and Revenue Release - Traffic Results2015
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Friday, October 24, 2014

BARCHART MORNING CALL 10/24

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 -0.35%) this morning are down -0.33% and European stocks are down -0.44% as Amazon.com dropped 10% in pre-market trading after lowering Q4 revenue guidance and as BASF SE is down nearly 3% after it cut profit targets and abandoned its sales goal for next year. Travel and leisure companies are also on the defensive after a New York City doctor tested positive for the Ebola virus after returning from aid work in West Africa. The Russian ruble fell to a record low of 41.99 per dollar on speculation that Standard & Poor's will cut Russia's credit rating later today. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +1.01%, Hong Kong -0.13%, China -0.22%, Taiwan -0.97%, Australia +0.54%, Singapore -0.43%, South Korea -0.19%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index rose to a 2-week high amid optimism for U.S. earnings and European growth, while China's Shanghai Stock Index fell to a 1-month low after China new home prices last month fell in 69 of 70 cities tracked by the government, the most on record and a sign that the slump in China's property market continues. Commodity prices are mixed. Dec crude oil (CLZ14 -0.83%) is down -0.89%. Dec gasoline (RBZ14 -0.86%) is down -0.94%. Dec gold (GCZ14 +0.28%) is up +0.21%. Dec copper (HGZ14 +0.26%) is down -0.10% on signs of increased supplies after LME copper inventories rose +2,050 MT to 159,550 MT, a 3-1/4 month high. Agriculture and livestock prices are mostly higher. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.04%) is down -0.03%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.05%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.10%. Dec T-note prices (ZNZ14 +0.21%) are up +6.5 ticks.
China Sep new home prices fell in 69 of 70 cities tracked by the government, the most since Jan 2011 and a sign that the downturn in China's property market continues.
The German Nov GfK consumer confidence unexpectedly rose +0.1 to 8.5, better than expectations of -0.3 to 8.0.
UK Q3 GDP rose +0.7% q/q and +3.0% y/y, right on expectations and down from the Q2 increase of +0.9% q/q and +3.2% y/y.
The UK Aug index of services was unch m/m and up +0.8% 3-mo/3-mo, less than expectations of +0.3% m/m and +0.9% 3-mo/3-mo.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today’s Sep new home sales report is expected to fall by -6.8% to 470,000 units, which would not be surprising given the +18.0% surge to the 6-1/3 year high of 504,000 seen in August.  There are 17 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today with notable reports including:  UPS (consensus $1.28), State Street (1.21), Procter & Gamble (1.07), Moody's (0.90), Ford (0.19), Nasdaq (0.70), and Wynn Resorts (1.82).  There are no equity conferences today.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Amazon.com (AMZN +0.07%) fell 10% in pre-market trading after it reported a Q3 EPS loss of -95 cents, a bigger loss than consensus of -74 cents, and then lowered guidance on Q4 revenue to $27.3 billion-$30.3 billion, below consensus of $30.89 billion.
Microsoft (MSFT +1.44%) climbed over 3% in pre-market trading after it reported Q1 EPS of 54 cents, higher than consensus of 49 cents.
Ford Motor (F +1.91%) reported Q3 EPS of 24 cents, better than consensus of 19 cents.
Cabot Oil & Gas (COG +3.12%) reported Q3 EPS of 20 cents, less than consensus of 21 cents.
Colgate-Palmolive (CL -0.41%) reported Q3 EPS of 76 cents, higher than consensus of 75 cents.
Flowserve (FLS +3.25%) reported Q3 EPS of 93 cents, below consensus of $1.00.
Chubb (CB +0.12%) reported Q3 operating EPS of $2.17, stronger than consensus of $1.95, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2014 operating EPS view to $7.35-$7.45 from $6.75-$6.95, above consensus of $7.17.
Edwards Lifesciences (EW -0.07%) reported Q3 EPS of 80 cents, better than consensus of 73 cents.
Hub Group (HUBG +1.59%) reported Q3 EPS of 49 cents, weaker than consensus of 54 cents.
Juniper (JNPR +3.25%) rose 1% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 EPS of 36 cents, above consensus of 35 cents, and then announced a +$1.1 billion increase in the company's share repurchase program.
NCR Corp. (NCR -0.36%) reported Q3 EPS of 67 cents, below consensus of 70 cents, and then lowered guidance on fiscal 2014 EPS to $2.60-$2.70 from $3.00-$3.10, well below consensus of $2.88.
Chicago Bridge & Iron (CBI +4.19%) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $1.51, stronger than consensus of $1.41.
Swift Transport (SWFT -0.18%) rose over 5% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 39 cents, better than consensus of 35 cents, and hen raised guidance on fiscal 2014 adjusted EPS to $1.29-$1.33, above consensus of $1.27.
W. R. Berkley (WRB +0.81%) reported Q3 EPS of $1.42, well above consensus of 90 cents.
MARKET COMMENTS
Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 -0.35%) this morning are down -6.50 points (-0.33%). The S&P 500 index on Thursday climbed to a 2-week high and closed higher: S&P 500 +1.23%, Dow Jones +1.32%, Nasdaq +1.59%. Bullish factors included (1) stellar Q3 stock earnings results with 80% of reporting S&P 500 companies beating estimates, and (2) reduced global economic concerns after the China Oct HSBC manufacturing PMI unexpectedly climbed +0.2 to 50.4, stronger than expectations of unchanged at 50.2, and after the Eurozone Oct Markit manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose +0.4 to 50.7, stronger than expectations of -0.4 to 49.9.
Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ14 +0.21%) this morning are up +6.5 ticks. Dec 10-year T-note futures prices on Thursday fell to a 1-1/2 week low and closed lower. Closes: TYZ4 -13.00, FVZ4 -7.50. Bearish factors included (1) signs of strength in the U.S. labor market after weekly continuing unemployment claims fell to a 13-3/4 year low, and (2) the rally in the S&P 500 to a 2-week high, which curbed safe-haven demand for T-notes.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.04%) this morning is down -0.024 (-0.03%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0006 (+0.05%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.11 (-0.10%). The dollar index on Thursday rose to a 1-week high and closed higher. Closes: Dollar index +0.102 (+0.12%), EUR/USD -0.00017 (-0.01%), USD/JPY +1.124 (+1.05%). Supportive factors for the dollar included (1) signs of strength in the U.S. economy that dampened speculation the Fed will delay raising interest rates after U.S weekly continuing unemployment claims fell to a 13-3/4 year low, and (2) a rally in USD/JPY to a 2-week high as strength in stocks reduced the safe-haven demand for the yen.
Dec WTI crude oil (CLZ14 -0.83%) this morning is down -73 cents (-0.89%) and Dec gasoline (RBZ14 -0.86%) is down -0.0203 (-0.94%). Dec crude and Dec gasoline on Thursday closed higher. Closes: CLZ4 +1.57 (+1.95%), RBZ4 +0.0505 (+2.39%). Bullish factors included (1) signs of strength in the U.S. economy after Sep leading indicators rose more than expected, and (2) reduced global economic concerns after both the China Oct HSBC manufacturing PMI and the Eurozone Oct Markit manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR10/24/2014
US1000 ETSep new home sales expected -6.8% to 470,000, Aug +18.0% to 504,000.
1500 ETUSDA Sep Cattle on Feed.
GER0200 ETGerman Nov GfK consumer confidence expected -0.3 to 8.0, Oct 8.3.
UK0430 ETUK Q3 GDP expected +0.7% q/q and +3.0% y/y, Q2 +0.9% q/q and +3.2% y/y.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR10/24/2014
Company NameTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
LyondellBasell Industries NVLYB USBef-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20142.302
Cabot Oil & Gas CorpCOG USBef-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.214
Ventas IncVTR USBef-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20141.106
State Street CorpSTT USBef-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20141.207
Delphi Automotive PLCDLPH USBef-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20141.133
Wyndham Worldwide CorpWYN US6:30Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20141.632
Procter & Gamble Co/ThePG US7:00Q1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20151.073
Colgate-Palmolive CoCL US7:00Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.753
Moody's CorpMCO US7:00Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.896
Ford Motor CoF US7:00Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.191
NASDAQ OMX Group Inc/TheNDAQ US7:00Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.697
DTE Energy CoDTE US7:15Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20141.054
Bristol-Myers Squibb CoBMY US7:30Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.419
FLIR Systems IncFLIR US7:30Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.352
United Parcel Service IncUPS US7:45Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20141.282
NASDAQ OMX Group Inc/TheNDAQ US8:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Avery Dennison CorpAVY US8:30Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.737
Procter & Gamble Co/ThePG US8:30Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015
Wyndham Worldwide CorpWYN US8:30Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
United Parcel Service IncUPS US8:30Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
DTE Energy CoDTE US9:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Ford Motor CoF US9:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallC3 2014
Avery Dennison CorpAVY US9:30Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Cabot Oil & Gas CorpCOG US9:30Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
State Street CorpSTT US9:30Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Southwestern Energy CoSWN US10:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Ventas IncVTR US10:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Principal Financial Group IncPFG US10:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Delphi Automotive PLCDLPH US10:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Bristol-Myers Squibb CoBMY US10:30Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
LyondellBasell Industries NVLYB US11:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Colgate-Palmolive CoCL US11:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Flowserve CorpFLS US11:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
FLIR Systems IncFLIR US11:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Ford Motor CoF US11:00Q3 2014 Earnings Call - Fixed Income CallQ3 2014
Moody's CorpMCO US11:30Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Rockwell Collins IncCOL USQ4 2014 Earnings Release
Wynn Resorts LtdWYNN USQ3 2014 Earnings Release
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Tuesday, July 29, 2014

BARCHART MORNING CALL 7/29

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
September E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 +0.15%) this morning are up +0.01% and European stocks are up +0.46% as optimism over Q2 corporate earnings results offsets concern about the geopolitical crisis' in Ukraine and the Middle East. Gains in European stocks were muted as the EU and the U.S. prepare new sanctions against Russia. Concern that new sanctions against Russia may slow European economic growth has fueled a rally in European government bond markets with the yield on the 10-year German bund falling to 1.119%, the lowest since Bloomberg began tracking the data in 1989. Asian stocks closed mostly higher: Japan +0.57%, Hong Kong +0.87%, China +0.32%, Taiwan -0.30%, Australia +0.20%, Singapore +0.18%, South Korea +0.93%, India closed for holiday. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index climbed to a 6-month high as exporter stocks rallied after the yen fell to a 3-week low against the dollar, which improves the earnings prospects for exporters. China's Shanghai Stock Index rose to a 7-month high as property developers rallied after the Shanghai Securities News reported that banks in Shanghai, Beijing and Guangzhou may shorten their mortgage-approval process to 1 month from 3 months, which may boost China's home sales in the second half of this year. Commodity prices are mixed. Sep crude oil (CLU14 -0.26%) is down -0.23%. Sep gasoline (RBU14 +0.45%) is up +0.44%. Aug gold (GCQ14 +0.36%) is up +0.32%. Sep copper (HGU14 -0.29%) is down -0.28%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mostly lower. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.04%) is up +0.03%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.03%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.12% at a 3-week high. Sep T-note prices (ZNU14 +0.07%) are up +4 ticks on catty-over support from a rally in European bond markets.
The Japan Jun jobless rate unexpectedly rose +0.2 to 3.7%, higher than expectations of unch at 3.5% and the highest in 5 months. The Jun job-to-applicant ratio unexpectedly rose +0.01 to 1.10, higher than expectations of unch at 1.09 and the highest in 22 years.
Japan Jun retail sales rose +0.4% m/m and fell -0.6% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.8% m/m and -0.5% y/y.
Japan Jun overall household spending fell -3.0% y/y, less than expectations of -4.0% y/y.
UK Jun mortgage approvals rose 67,200, more than expectations of 63,000.
UK Jun net consumer credit rose +0.4 billion pounds, less than expectations of +0.8 billion pounds and the smallest increase in 17 months.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
The 2-day FOMC meeting begins today and will conclude tomorrow with a policy announcement. Today’s May S&P/CaseShiller Composite-20 home price index is expected to show an increase of +0.3% m/m, strengthening a bit from the +0.2% increase seen in April. April’s report of +0.2% m/m marked the smallest advance for the series since it started rising in February 2012. Today’s July U.S. consumer confidence from the Conference Board is expected to show a small increase of +0.2 to 85.4, edging higher after the sharp +3.0 point increase to 85.2 seen in June. The Treasury today will sell $35 billion of 5-year T-notes.
There are 46 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today with notable reports including: UPS (consensus $1.25), Newmont Mining (0.19), Aflac (1.59), Pfizer (0.57), Martin Marietta Materials (1.29), Corning (0.38), Wynn Resorts (2.03), International Paper (0.83), Merck (0.81). Equity conferences this week include the following: Institute of Validation technology on Tue-Thu, and Marcus Evans 13th Annual Outage Management for Power Plants Conference on Tue-Thu.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Merck & Co. (MRK -0.31%) reported Q2 EPS of 85 cents, better than consensus of 81 cents.
Aetna (AET +1.71%) reported Q2 EPS of $1.69, higher than consensus of $1.60.
Eastman Chemical (EMN -0.05%) reported Q2 EPS of $1.92, above consensus of $1.84.
Range Resources (RRC -0.57%) reported Q2 EPS of 36 cents, weaker than consensus of 40 cents.
Masco (MAS -3.01%) climbed 6% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 32 cents, stronger than consensus of 28 cents.
Luxor Capital Group reported a 5.4% passive stake in Orbitz (OWW unch) .
Herbalife (HLF +2.15%) fell over 10% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 EPS of $1.55, below consensus of $1.57.
HealthSouth (HLS +1.21%) reported Q2 EPS of 81 cents with items, well above consensus of 47 cents, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2014 EPS view to $2.25-$2.31 from $1.86-$1.91, well above consensus of $1.91.
Amkor Technology (AMKR +0.10%) jumped over 10% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 EPS of 21 cents, higher than consensus of 15 cents.
Lloyd Miller reported a 5.4% passive stake in Learning Tree (LTRE +1.28%) .
CNO Financial (CNO +0.17%) reported Q2 EPS of 29 cents, weaker than consensus of 31 cents.
W. R. Berkley (WRB -0.25%) reported Q2 operating EPS of 82 cents, stronger than consensus of 77 cents.
Plum Creek Timber (PCL +0.32%) reported Q2 EPS of 31 cents, higher than consensus of 30 cents, but then lowered guidance on fiscal 2014 EPS view to $1.05-$1.25 from $1.30-$1.50, well below consensus of $1.39.
Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH +1.11%) reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 58 cents, better than consensus of 57 cents.
MARKET COMMENTS
Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 +0.15%) this morning are up +0.25 of a point (+0.01%). The S&P 500 index on Monday erased early losses and closed higher on increased M&A activity after Dollar Tree agreed to buy rival Family Dollar Stores in a cash-and-stock deal valued at about $8.5 billion and after Zillow agreed to purchase Trulia for $3.5 billion: S&P 500 +0.08%, Dow Jones +0.03%, Nasdaq +0.13%. Negative factors that kept gains in check included (1) the -1.1% m/m decline in June pending home sales, weaker than expectations of a +0.5% m/m increase and the biggest monthly decline in 6 months, and (2) geopolitical concerns with the escalation of violence in the Middle East and Ukraine and with impending new Russian sanctions.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU14 +0.07%) this morning are up +4 ticks. Sep 10-year T-note futures prices on Monday closed lower. Negative factors included (1) supply pressures as the Treasury auctions $108 billion of T-notes this week, and (2) expectations for the Fed to further reduce its monthly bond purchases by $10 billion when it convenes at this week’s 2-day FOMC meeting. Losses were limited as stocks fell after Jun pending home sales unexpectedly fell by the most in 6 months. Closes: TYU4 -6.0, FVU4 -4.00.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.04%) this morning is up +0.026 (+0.03%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0004 (-0.03%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.12 (+0.12%) a a 3-week high. The dollar index on Monday closed little changed on signs of economic weakness after U.S. Jun pending home sales unexpectedly declined. EUR/USD was undercut by comments from ECB Vice President Constancio who said that inflation rates in the Eurozone “remained too low” in the second quarter. Closes: Dollar index unch, EUR/USD -0.0034 (-0.25%), USD/JPY +0.02 (+0.02%).
Sep WTI crude oil (CLU14 -0.26%) this morning is down -23 cents (-0.23%) and Sep gasoline (RBU14 +0.45%) is up +0.0125 (+0.44%). Sep crude and gasoline prices Monday closed lower with Sep crude at a 2-week low: CLU4 -0.42 (-0.41%), RBU4 -0.0129 (-0.45%). Bearish factors for crude oil and gasoline included (1) signs of economic weakness after U.S. Jun pending home sales unexpectedly declined by the most in 6 months, and (2) reduced geopolitical concerns as the flow of crude oil from the Middle East remains unaffected by the surge of violence in Libya and Iraq.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR07/29/2014
US0900 ETMay S&P/CaseShiller Composite-20 home price index expected +0.3% m/m and +10.0% y/y, Apr +0.19% m/m and +10.82% y/y.
1000 ETJul U.S. consumer confidence (Conference Board) expected +0.2 to 85.4, Jun +3.0 to 85.2.
1100 ETFOMC begins 2-day policy meeting.
1300 ETTreasury auctions $35 billion of 5-year T-notes.
UK0430 ETUK Jun net consumer credit expected +0.8 billion pounds, May +0.7 billion pounds.
0430 ETUK Jun mortgage approvals expected 63,000, May 61,700.
0430 ETUK Jun M4 money supply expected -0.6% y/y, May -0.1% m/m and -0.9% y/y.
JPN1950 ETJapan Jun industrial production expected -1.2% m/m and +5.2% y/y, May +0.7% m/m and +1.0% y/y.
GER0200 ETGerman Jun import price index expected +0.3% m/m and -1.2% y/y, May unch m/m and -2.1% y/y.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR07/29/2014
Company NameTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Martin Marietta Materials IncMLM USBef-mktQ2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20141.292
Pfizer IncPFE USBef-mktQ2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20140.567
Nielsen NVNLSN USBef-mktQ2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20140.612
Waste Management IncWM USBef-mktQ2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20140.593
Corning IncGLW USBef-mktQ2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20140.376
Eaton Corp PLCETN USBef-mktQ2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20141.118
Ecolab IncECL USBef-mktQ2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20141.022
Entergy CorpETR USBef-mktQ2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20141.103
Wynn Resorts LtdWYNN USBef-mktQ2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20142.026
National Oilwell Varco IncNOV USBef-mktQ2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20141.437
PACCAR IncPCAR USBef-mktQ2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20140.891
Fidelity National Information Services IncFIS USBef-mktQ2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20140.739
Affiliated Managers Group IncAMG USBef-mktQ2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20142.599
International Paper CoIP USBef-mktQ2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20140.832
Reynolds American IncRAI USBef-mktQ2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20140.867
Marsh & McLennan Cos IncMMC USBef-mktQ2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20140.744
Merck & Co IncMRK USBef-mktQ2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20140.81
Aetna IncAET US6:00Q2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20141.604
Harris CorpHRS US6:30Q4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20141.284
CONSOL Energy IncCNX US6:45Q2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20140.245
Xylem Inc/NYXYL US7:00Q2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20140.444
McGraw Hill Financial IncMHFI US7:15Q2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20140.98
NextEra Energy IncNEE US7:30Q2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20141.44
United Parcel Service IncUPS US7:45Q2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20141.248
Illinois Tool Works IncITW US8:00Q2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20141.201
Masco CorpMAS US8:00Q2 2014 Earnings CallQ2 2014
Eastman Chemical CoEMN US8:00Q2 2014 Earnings CallQ2 2014
Merck & Co IncMRK US8:00Q2 2014 Earnings CallQ2 2014
Nielsen NVNLSN US8:30Q2 2014 Earnings CallQ2 2014
Corning IncGLW US8:30Q2 2014 Earnings CallQ2 2014
Wynn Resorts LtdWYNN US8:30Q2 2014 Earnings CallQ2 2014
Harris CorpHRS US8:30Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
United Parcel Service IncUPS US8:30Q2 2014 Earnings CallQ2 2014
Fidelity National Information Services IncFIS US8:30Q2 2014 Earnings CallQ2 2014
Aetna IncAET US8:30Q2 2014 Earnings CallQ2 2014
Marsh & McLennan Cos IncMMC US8:30Q2 2014 Earnings CallQ2 2014
McGraw Hill Financial IncMHFI US8:30Q2 2014 Earnings CallQ2 2014
Xylem Inc/NYXYL US9:00Q2 2014 Earnings CallQ2 2014
NextEra Energy IncNEE US9:00Q2 2014 Earnings CallQ2 2014
National Oilwell Varco IncNOV US9:00Q2 2014 Earnings CallQ2 2014
International Paper CoIP US9:00Q2 2014 Earnings CallQ2 2014
Reynolds American IncRAI US9:00Q2 2014 Earnings CallQ2 2014
Range Resources CorpRRC US9:00Q2 2014 Earnings CallQ2 2014
Pfizer IncPFE US10:00Q2 2014 Earnings CallQ2 2014
Waste Management IncWM US10:00Q2 2014 Earnings CallQ2 2014
CONSOL Energy IncCNX US10:00Q2 2014 Earnings CallQ2 2014
General Growth Properties IncGGP US10:00Q2 2014 Earnings CallQ2 2014
Eaton Corp PLCETN US10:00Q2 2014 Earnings CallQ2 2014
Illinois Tool Works IncITW US10:00Q2 2014 Earnings CallQ2 2014
Entergy CorpETR US11:00Q2 2014 Earnings CallQ2 2014
Affiliated Managers Group IncAMG US11:00Q2 2014 Earnings CallQ2 2014
Jacobs Engineering Group IncJEC US11:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
PACCAR IncPCAR US12:00Q2 2014 Earnings CallQ2 2014
Ecolab IncECL US13:00Q2 2014 Earnings CallQ2 2014
Martin Marietta Materials IncMLM US14:00Q2 2014 Earnings CallQ2 2014
Edwards Lifesciences CorpEW US16:00Q2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20140.769
CBRE Group IncCBG US16:00Q2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20140.356
CH Robinson Worldwide IncCHRW US16:15Q2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20140.765
American Express CoAXP US17:00Q2 2014 Earnings CallQ2 2014
Marriott International Inc/DEMAR US17:00Q2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20140.67
Edwards Lifesciences CorpEW US17:00Q2 2014 Earnings CallQ2 2014
Vertex Pharmaceuticals IncVRTX US17:00Q2 2014 Earnings CallQ2 2014
CBRE Group IncCBG US17:00Q2 2014 Earnings CallQ2 2014
Amgen IncAMGN US17:00Q2 2014 Earnings CallQ2 2014
Fiserv IncFISV US17:00Q2 2014 Earnings CallQ2 2014
Equity ResidentialEQR USAft-mktQ2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20140.768
Aflac IncAFL USAft-mktQ2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20141.592
Newmont Mining CorpNEM USAft-mktQ2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20140.191
American Express CoAXP USAft-mktQ2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20141.381
Anadarko Petroleum CorpAPC USAft-mktQ2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20141.296
Owens-Illinois IncOI USAft-mktQ2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20140.824
AGL Resources IncGAS USAft-mktQ2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20140.428
Newfield Exploration CoNFX USAft-mktQ2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20140.528
Vertex Pharmaceuticals IncVRTX USAft-mktQ2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 2014-0.762
Boston Properties IncBXP USAft-mktQ2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20141.331
Genworth Financial IncGNW USAft-mktQ2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20140.349
Express Scripts Holding CoESRX USAft-mktQ2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20141.216
Amgen IncAMGN USAft-mktQ2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20142.064
Fiserv IncFISV USAft-mktQ2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20140.808
Ameriprise Financial IncAMP USAft-mktQ2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20142.01
Kimco Realty CorpKIM USAft-mktQ2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20140.344
Cincinnati Financial CorpCINF USAft-mktQ2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20140.455
Legg Mason IncLM USAnnual General MeetingY 2014
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