ACE Ltd. = Barchart's Chart of the Day

ACE Ltd (ACE) is the Barchart Chart of the Day. The property and casualty insurance stock has a Trend Spotter buy signal, a Weighted Alpha of 20.51+, gained 15.97% in the last year while paying a 2.25% dividend.

The Chart of the Day belongs to ACE Ltd. (ACE).  I found the stock by sorting the All Time High list for the stocks having the most frequent new highs in the last month then used the Flipchart feature to review the charts.  Since the Trend Spotter signaled a buy on 10/24 the stock gained 8.58%.

ACE LTD. provides excess liability insurance for bodily injury, property damage, & wrongful advertising. ACE offers excess liability insurance for corporate directors and officers against wrongful acts and claims and satellite insurance for launch and in-orbit operations.

Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.

Barchart technical indicators:

• 96% Barchart technical buy signals
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 15 new highs and up 5.04% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 81.43%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 114.90
• Recent traded at 116.07 with a 50 day moving average of 108.97

Fundamental factors:

• Market Cap $38.56 billion
• P/E 11.90
• Dividend yield 2.25%
• Revenue expected to increase 4.80% this year and another 3.70% next year
• Earnings estimated to compound annually at the rate of 5.13% for the next 5 years
• Wall Street analysts issued 4 strong buy, 12 buy and 9 hold recommendations on the stock

There hasn't been a consistently accurate  technical trading strategy for this stock so I would use a 10% off the most recent high as an exit point.

Sell Signals - STO,ETR and ACE

Today I dropped Statoil (STO), Entergy (ETR) and Ace Ltd (ACE) from the Barchart Van Meerten New High portfolio for negative price momentum:

Statoil (STO)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 80% Barchart technical sell signals
• Trend Spotter sell signal
• Below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 11.14% off its recent high
• Relative Strength Index 33.58

Entergy (ETR)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 64% Barchart technical sell signals
• Trend Spotter sell signal
• Below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 12.98% below its recent high
• Relative Strength Index 33.24%

Ace Ltd (ACE)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 64% Barchart technical sell signals
• Trend Spotter sell signal
• Below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 7.83% odd its recent high
• Relative Strength Index 31.20%

Stock added to my portfolio

This week I added Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.B), Statoil ASA (STO), Dynegy (DYN) and Ace Limited (ACE) to the Barchart Van Meerten New High portfolio for great technical indicators and price momentum:

Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.B)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 96% Barchart technical buy signals
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 15 new highs and up 10.37% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 86.43%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 85.72%
• Recently traded at 86.76 with a 50 day moving average of 79.23

Statoil ASA (STO)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 96% Barchart technical buy signals
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 13 new highs and up 12.96% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 76.53%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 31.25
• Recently traded at 31.28 with a 50 day moving average of 28.29

Dynegy (DYN)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 96% Barchart technical buy signals
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 14 new highs and up 28.52% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 90.73%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 29.91
• Recently traded at 31.62 with a 50 day moving average of 25.69

Ace Limited (ACE)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 88% Barchart technical buy signals
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 13 new highs and up 4.81% in the last month
• Relative strength Index 61.59%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 101.26
• Recently traded at 102.30 with a 50 day moving average of 99.42

BARCHART MORNING CALL 12/9

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Monday, December 9th, 2013View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ13 +0.10%) this morning are up +0.03%, although European stocks are down -0.13% after German industrial production unexpectedly declined in October for a second month. Asian stocks closed mostly higher: Japan +2.29%, Hong Kong +0.29%, China -0.06%, Taiwan +0.92%, Australia -0.80%, Singapore -0.02%, South Korea +1.15%, India +1.57%. Global stocks received a lift after China Nov exports climbed +12.7% y/y, the most in 7-months. U.S. stocks are also finding support on a possible budget deal after aides to Republican Paul Ryan and Democratic Patty Murray, chief negotiators on a special panel, said they are optimistic for a compromise by Friday's deadline. Commodity prices are mixed. Jan crude oil (CLF14 unch) is down -0.07%. Jan gasoline (RBF14 -0.06%) is down -0.28%. Feb gold (GCG14 -0.07%) is down -0.08%. March copper (HGH14 +0.03%) is down -0.18%. Agricultural prices are higher. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.13%) is down -0.11% at a 5-week low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.08% at a 5-week high. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.16%. March T-note prices (ZNH14 +0.23%) are up +8.5 ticks.
The China Nov trade balance unexpectedly widened to a +$33.8 billion surplus, much bigger than expectations of +$21.2 billion and the most in 4-3/4 years. China Nov exports rose +12.7% y/y, more than expectations of +7.0% y/y and the most in 7-months, while Nov imports rose +5.3% y/y, less than expectations of +7.0% y/y and the least in 5-months.
China Nov CPI rose +3.0% y/y, less than expectations of +3.1% y/y and Nov PPI fell -1.4% y/y, a smaller decline than expectations of -1.5% y/y.
The German Oct trade balance narrowed to a 17.9 billion euro surplus, less than expectations of an 18.3 billion euro surplus. German Oct exports unexpectedly rose +0.2% m/m, better than expectations of a -0.5% m/m decline, and Oct imports rose +2.9% m/m, better than expectations of +1.1% m/m.
German Oct industrial production unexpectedly fell -1.2% m/m, the second monthly decline and weaker than expectations of +0.7% m/m and the biggest decline in 5-months. On an annual basis, Oct industrial production climbed +1.0% y/y, less than expectations of +3.1% y/y.
The Eurozone Dec Sentix investor confidence unexpectedly fell -1.3 to 8.0, weaker than expectations of a +0.7 increase to 10.0.
The Japan Nov eco watchers survey of current conditions rose to a 6-month high of 53.5 from 51.8 in Oct, and the Nov eco watchers survey expectations rose to a 6-month high of 54.8 from 54.5 in Oct.
Japan Q3 GDP was revised lower to +0.3% q/q and +1.1% q/q annualized form +0.4% q/q and +1.6% q/q annualized.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

This week’s U.S. economic calendar is very light with the only key reports including Thursday’s Nov retail sales report (expected +0.6% and +0.2% ex-autos) and Friday’s Nov PPI report (expected +0.8% y/y vs +0.3% in Oct). The Treasury this week will sell $64 billion in 3-year, 10-year, and 30-year securities. There are only 7 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings this week. There are two of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: Forest City Enterprises (consensus -$0.07), and PVH Corp (2.25).
Equity conferences this week include: American Society of Hematology Meeting on Mon, UBS Global Media and Communications Conference on Mon-Wed, Raymond James Systems Semiconductors, Software & Supply Chain Conference on Mon-Tue, Bloomberg Enterprise Technology Summit on Tue,
Jefferies Storage Summit on Tue, BMO Capital MarketsTechnology & Digital Media Conference on Tue, Raymond James Supply Chain Conference on Tue, Oppenheimer Health Care Conference on Tue-Wed, Goldman Sachs Financial Services Conference on Tue-Wed, Bank of America Merrill Lynch US Basic Materials Conference on Tue-Wed, BMO Technology and Digital Media Conference on Tue-Wed, BMO Capital Markets Technology, Media & Entertainment Conference on Tue-Wed, Wells Fargo Energy Symposium on Wed, Wells Fargo Securities Pipeline, MLP, and Energy Symposium on Wed,
Capital One Southcoast Energy Conference on Wed-Thu, Barclays Information and IT Services Forum on Thu, Barclays Select Series Information and IT Series Forum Conference on Thu, and AHIP Exchange Conference 2013 on Thu.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Marathon Petroleum (MPC +4.00%) was upgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Underweight' at JPMorgan.
Mohawk (MHK +1.08%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Neutral' at Credit Suisse who also raised the price target on the stock to $166 from $142.
Dean Foods (DF +0.77%) was downgraded to 'Equal Weight' from 'Overweight' at Morgan Stanley.
Kraft Foods (KFT) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Equal Weight' at Morgan Stanley with a price target of $60.
Manitowoc (MTW -0.05%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Longbow.
Noble Energy (NBL +0.67%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Deutsche Bank.
Valero Energy (VLO +2.71%) and Phillips 66 (PSX +2.17%) were both upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Deutsche Bank.
Monsanto reported a 9.87% passive stake in Evogene (EVGN -2.15%) .
Gilead Sciences (GILD +1.09%) rose nearly 5% in pre-market trading after it announced that the U.S. FDA has approved its Sovaldi 400 mg tablets, a once-daily oral nucleotide analog polymerase inhibitor for the treatment of chronic hepatitis C infection as a component of a combination antiviral treatment regiment.
FJ Capital reported a 8.22% passive stake in Atlantic Coast Financial (ACFC +0.52%) .

MARKET COMMENTS

Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ13 +0.10%) this morning are up +0.50 of a point (+0.03%). The S&P 500 index on Friday settled sharply higher on bullish factors that included (1) the +203,000 increase in U.S. Nov non-farm payrolls, stronger than expectations of +185,000, (2) the -0.3 point decline in the Nov unemployment rate to a 5-year low of 7.0%, a bigger decline than expectations of -0.1 to 7.2%, and (3) the larger-than-expected +7.4 point increase in the Dec University of Michigan U.S. consumer confidence to a 5-month high of 82.5. Closes: S&P 500 +1.12%, Dow Jones +1.26%, Nasdaq 100 +0.76%.
Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH14 +0.23%) this morning are up +8.5 ticks. Mar T-notes on Friday closed lower after the larger-than-expected increase in U.S. Nov non-farm payrolls and the drop in the Nov unemployment rate to a 5-year low raised expectations that the Fed will start to cut its bond purchases sooner rather than later. The 10-year T-note yield posted a 2-3/4 month high of 2.93% but then fell back to close at 2.86%. Closes: TYH4 -4.50, FVH4 -4.50.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.13%) this morning is down -0.090 (-0.11%) at a 5-week low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0011 (+0.08%) at a 5-week high and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.16 (+0.16%). The dollar index on Friday closed higher after the stronger-than-expected U.S. Nov payroll report boosted the speculation the Fed will taper QE3 sooner than earlier expected. EUR/USD posted a 5-week high on carry-over support after the ECB on Thursday refrained from additional stimulus measures. Closes: Dollar index +0.080 (+0.10%), EUR/USD +0.00359 (+0.26%), USD/JPY +1.121 (+1.10%).
Jan WTI crude oil (CLF14 unch) this morning is down -7 cents (-0.07%) and Jan gasoline (RBF14 -0.06%) is down -0.0075 (-0.28%). Jan crude oil and gasoline prices on Friday closed higher. The main bullish factor that pushed Jan crude up to a 5-week high was the larger-than-expected increase in U.S. Nov non-farm payrolls and the drop in the Nov unemployment rate to a 5-year low, which bolsters the outlook for economic growth and energy demand. Closes: CLF4 +0.27 (+0.28%), RBF4 +0.0142 (+0.52%).

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR12/09/2013

US	1100 ET	USDA weekly grain export inspections.
	1230 ET	Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker speaks at the Charlotte Chambers annual economic-outlook luncheon.
	1305 ET	St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speaks on the economic outlook and monetary policy to the CFA Society of St. Louis.
	1830 ET	Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher speaks to the CFA Society Chicago on the global and U.S. economic outlook, how the FOMC deliberates, and his perspective of current U.S. monetary policy.
JPN	0000 ET	Japan Nov eco watchers survey current, Oct 51.8. Nov eco watchers survey outlook, Oct 54.5.
	1850 ET	Japan Oct tertiary industry index expected +0.1% m/m, Sep -0.2% m/m.
	1850 ET	Japan Q4 BSI business conditions of large manufacturing, Q3 15.2.
GER	0200 ET	German Q3 labor costs, Q2 unch q/q and +1.8% y/y.
	0200 ET	German Oct trade balance expected +18.3 billion euros, Sep +20.4 billion euros. Oct exports expected -0.5% m/m, Sep +1.6%. Oct imports expected +1.1% m/m, Sep 1.9%.
	0600 ET	German Oct industrial production expected +0.7% m/m and +3.1% y/y, Sep -0.9% m/m and +1.0% y/y.
EUR	0430 ET	Eurozone Dec Sentix investor confidence expected +0.7 to 10.0, Nov 9.3.
UK	1901 ET	UK Nov RICS house price balance expected 60%, Oct 57%.
CHI	n/a	China Nov new yuan loans expected +577.5 billion yuan, Oct +506.1 billion yuan.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR12/09/2013

Company Name	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Forest City Enterprises Inc	FCE/A US	Bef-mkt	Q3 2014 Earnings Release	Q3 2014	-0.065
Edwards Lifesciences Corp	EW US	8:30	Investor Conference	Y 2013
DaVita HealthCare Partners Inc	DVA US	9:30	Capital Markets Day	Y 2013
Principal Financial Group Inc	PFG US	10:00	FY 2014 Guidance Call	Y 2014
SL Green Realty Corp	SLG US	13:00	Investor Meeting	Y 2013
Forest City Enterprises Inc	FCE/A US	14:00	Q3 2014 Earnings Call	Q3 2014
Texas Instruments Inc	TXN US	17:00	Q4 2013 Guidance Call - Mid Quarter	Q4 2013
PVH Corp	PVH US	Aft-mkt	Q3 2014 Earnings Release	Q3 2014	2.246
McDonald's Corp	MCD US		November 2013 Sales and Revenue Release	2013
ACE Ltd	ACE US		Investor Meeting - Day 8	Y 2013

Barchart Morning Call 1/29

Barchart Morning Call

BC - 37 mins ago

Overnight Developments

• March E-mini S&Ps this morning are mildly lower as the market runs into some long liquidation pressure ahead of today's consumer confidence and Case-Shiller home price reports, a full slate of earnings reports, and the beginning of the 2-day FOMC meeting. The FOMC at tomorrow's post-meeting announcement is unanimously expected to leave its QE3 program unchanged at $85 billion per month. European stocks this morning are down -0.32%. Asian stocks closed mixed today. Japan closed +0.39%, Hong Kong closed -0.07%, and China closed +0.91%. Commodity prices are mildly higher by +0.14%. March crude oil is up +0.03%, March gasoline is down -0.64%, Feb gold is up +0.56%, March copper is up +0.12%, grains are slightly higher, livestock is slightly lower, and softs are mostly higher. The dollar index is little changed while EUR/USD is down -0.15%. USD/JPY is down -0.40%. March 10-year T-notes are up 5 ticks.
• Italy today successfully sold 8.5 billion euros of 6-month bills at 0.731%, the lowest rate in nearly 3 years and down from 0.95% at the last sale of that security in December. The lower 6-month bill rate is another indicator of the containment for the time being of the European debt crisis.
• The German Feb GfK consumer confidence index edged higher to 5.8 from 5.6 in January and was slightly stronger than market expectations of 5.7.
• China's Dec leading index rose to 100.50 from a revised 100.37 in November (preliminary 100.21).
• India cut its key repurchase rate by 25 bp to 7.75% from 8.00%, which was in line with market expectations. That was the first rate cut since April. The Reserve Bank of India was able to cut the rate to give some support to the economy after inflation fell to a 3-year low.
  Market Comments
  • March E-mini S&Ps this morning are down -0.35% on long liquidation pressure after the recent rally and on the -0.32% sell-off in European stocks this morning. The S&P 500 index on Monday opened higher on carry-over strength from a rally in the Shanghai stock index to a 7-month high after Chinese industrial companies' profits gained for a fourth month and after U.S. Dec durable goods a rose more than expected, but stock prices fell back and closed mixed when U.S. Dec pending home sales unexpectedly declined. Closes: S&P 500 -0.18%, Dow Jones -0.10%, Nasdaq +0.21%. U.S. Dec pending home sales fell -4.3% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.1% m/m, while Dec durable goods orders rose +4.6% and +1.3% ex transportation, stronger than expectations of +2.0% and +0.8% ex transportation. Another positive for stocks is strong earnings results as 75% of the 150 S&P 500 companies that have released earnings this quarter have beaten estimates.
  • March 10-year T-notes this morning are up 5 ticks on short-covering after the steep recent losses and on this morning's lower trade in E-mini S&Ps. March 10-year T-note prices on Monday slumped to a 9-month nearest-futures low on reduced safe-haven demand after Dec durable goods orders rose more than expected along with supply pressures as the Treasury auctions $99 billion of T-notes this week. Closes: TYH3 -6.0, FVH3 -4.25. The 10-year T-note yield rose to a 9-month high of 2.003%.
  • The dollar index this morning is slightly higher by +0.02 (+0.03%), while EUR/USD is down -0.0020 (-0.15%). USD/JPY is down -0.36 yen (-0.40%). The dollar index on Monday closed slightly higher as the stronger-than-expected Dec durable goods orders reduced speculation of additional Fed easing, which is dollar supportive. USD/JPY rallied to another fresh 2-1/2 year high as the prospects of further BOJ quantitative easing undercut the yen. Closes: Dollar index +0.051 (+0.06%), EUR/USD -0.00086 (-0.06%), USD/JPY -0.024 (-0.02%).
  • March WTI crude oil this morning is up +0.03 (+0.03%) and March gasoline is -0.0189 (-0.64%). Mar crude oil and gasoline Monday closed higher on economic optimism after Dec durable goods orders increased more than expected, while gasoline jumped to a 3-1/2 month high after Hess Corp. said it was closing its 70,000 barrel-a-day refinery in Port Reading, New Jersey next month. Crude prices also received a boost after OPEC Secretary General Abdalla El-Badri said the cartel sees no price collapse in 2013 on expected global demand growth. Closes: CLH3 +0.56 (+0.58%), RBH3 +0.0511 (+1.77%).
  • For the complete subscription version of this daily report (plus a 13-page big-picture weekly report), along with the earliest possible delivery in the morning, please visit http://www.barchart.com/register/crbfms_usmc.php
    Today's U.S. Earnings ReportsEarnings reports (ranked by market cap): PFE-Pfizer (consensus $0.44), AMZN-Amazon.com (0.79), LLY-Eli Lilly (0.79), EMC-EMC Corp (0.52), F-Ford Motor (0.25), DHR-Danaher (0.86), NEE-Nextera Energy (0.95), ITW-Illinois Tool (0.91), ACE-ACE Ltd (1.28), VLO-Valero Energy (1.20), BRCM-Broadcom (0.74), IP-International Paper (0.65), TROW-T Rowe Price (0.89), GLW-Corning (0.32), BXP-Boston Properties (0.39), NUE-Nucor (0.30), TYC-Tyco International (0.39), HOG-Harley-Davidson (0.33), PNR-Pentair (0.44), VRTX-Vertex Pharm (0.11), BSX-Boston Scientific (0.11).
    Global Financial Calendar

    Tuesday 1/29/13
    United States
    0900 ET	Nov S&P/CaseShiller composite-20 home price index expected +0.7% m/m and +5.5% y/y, Oct +0.66% m/m and +4.31% y/y.
    1000 ET	Jan consumer confidence (Conference Board) expected -1.1 to 64.0, Dec -6.4 to 65.1.
    1300 ET	Treasury auction of $35 billion in 5-year T-notes.
    1630 ET	API weekly U.S. oil statistics.
    n/a	FOMC 2-day meeting begins.
    Germany
    0200 ET	German Feb GfK consumer confidence survey expected 5.7, Jan 5.6.
    Japan
    0000 ET	Japan Jan small business confidence, Dec 43.8.
    1850 ET	Japan Dec retail trade expected +0.4% m/m and +0.3% y/y, Nov -0.1% m/m and +1.2% y/y. Dec large retailer sales expected -1.0% y/y, Nov +0.9% y/y.

Barchart Morning Call 10/23

Barchart Morning Call

BC - Tue Oct 23, 7:00AM CDT

Overnight Developments

• Dec E-mini S&Ps are trading sharply lower by -1.07% on general concern about weaker earnings. European stocks are down -1.35% on another batch of weak European earnings reports today. Asian stocks today closed mixed with Japanese stocks little changed and Chinese stocks down -1.26%. Commodity prices are down -0.72% with Dec crude oil down -1.12%, Dec gold down -0.94%, Dec copper down -1.17%, and agriculture prices trading lower across the board. The dollar index is up +0.23% on increased safe-haven demand while EUR/USD is down -0.42%. USD/JPY is down -0.11% after yesterday's surge. Dec 10-year T-notes are up 5 ticks.
• Spain's Q3 GDP fell -1.2% (qtr-qtr annualized), matching the -1.2% decline seen in Q2 and representing the fifth consecutive quarter of negative growth. However, the report of -1.2% was much better than expectations of -2.8%.
• Spain today successfully sold 3.53 billion euros of bills, exceeding the target amount.
• Moody's cut credit ratings on Catalonia and four other Spanish regions, but left the ratings of the other regions unchanged. Moody's last week gave EUR/USD a boost by leaving the Spanish central government rating unchanged at Baa3, the lowest investment grade rating.
• The Hong Kong Monetary Authority today intervened in the FX market by selling $855 million of Hong Kong dollars, adding to the $603 million of intervention seen last Friday. The Authority is being forced to sell Hong Kong dollars in exchange for U.S. dollars in order to prevent its currency from strengthening beyond the HK$7.75 limit of its HK$7.75 to 7.85 target band. The intervention seen since last Friday is the first since 2009. The Fed's QE3 program is helping to depress the dollar while boosting currencies in a variety of countries. The intervention to suppress the Hong Kong dollar could turn out to be inflationary for Hong Kong.
• Japan's Oct small business confidence index fell to 43.7 from 45.1 in September, providing another negative economic data point for Japan.
  Market Comments
  • Dec E-mini S&Ps this morning are sharply lower by -15.25 points (-1.07%) on concern about weak Q3 earnings. The Euro Stoxx 50 index is sharply lower by -1.35% this morning on another batch of weak earnings reports. The S&P 500 index on Monday closed little changed: S&P 500 +0.04%, Dow Jones +0.02%, Nasdaq 100 +0.61%. Stocks continued to run into weakness on worries about additional poor Q3 earnings reports after last week's batch of disappointing results. The sharp 10.3% y/y drop in Japanese exports was also a negative factor in highlighting the poor export prospects at present for global companies. On the bullish side, the markets were encouraged by outcome of Sunday's Spanish regional elections, which boosted the chances that Spanish Prime Minister Rajoy will soon accept a bailout. U.S. tech stocks received a boost on Monday from a rally in Apple.
  • Dec 10-year T-notes this morning are up 5 ticks on some increased safe-haven demand with today's sell-off in global stock markets. Dec 10-year T-note prices on Monday settled lower: TYZ2 -9, FVZ2 -4. Bearish factors included the stabilization in U.S. stocks after last Friday's sharp sell-off and supply overhang ahead of this week's $99 billion Treasury coupon package. The Treasury today will sell $35 billion in 2-year T-notes.
  • The dollar index this morning is mildly higher by +0.18 points (+0.23%) on increased safe-haven demand. EUR/USD is down -0.0055 (-0.42%) on today's sharp sell-off in European stocks and on Moody's downgrade of five Spanish regions. USD/JPY is down -0.09 (-0.11%). The dollar index on Monday closed little changed: Dollar index +0.03 (+0.04%), EUR/USD +0.0036 (+0.28%), USD/JPY +0.62 (+0.78%). EUR/USD closed mildly higher on Monday on the favorable election results for Spanish Prime Minister Rajoy, which may boost the chances that Mr. Rajoy will soon request the bailout that the markets would like to see. The markets were also encouraged by Ms. Merkel's comments that Ireland is a "special case" regarding its banking bailout, which meant that the door may still be open for some assistance by the ESM for Ireland's massive bailout that covered all bank creditors at the insistence of ECB and Eurozone officials. USD/JPY rallied sharply on the 10.3% y/y drop in Japanese exports, which was bearish for Japan's economic prospects. USD/JPY also received a boost from technical buying with the breakout to a new 3-month high.
  • Nov WTI crude oil prices this morning are down -0.99 (-1.12%) and Nov gasoline is down -0.0248 (-0.94%) on lower global stocks and worries about weak global fuel demand. Nov crude oil and gasoline prices on Monday closed lower: CLX2 -1.32 (-1.47%), RBX2 -0.0488 (-1.81%). Bearish factors included (1) the sharp 10.3% y/y drop in Japanese exports, which was another indicator of weak economic growth in Asia, and (2) news that TransCanada restarted the Keystone pipeline (590,000 bpd) that has been down since last Wednesday due to the need to inspect a possible problem. The Keystone pipeline brings crude oil from Canada down to Illinois and on to Cushing, Oklahoma. However, the Keystone pipeline will not reach its full capacity until November. The market consensus for Wednesday's weekly DOE report is for a 1.8 million barrel rise in crude oil inventories, a 500,000 barrel rise in gasoline inventories, a 1.5 million barrel drop in distillate inventories, and a 0.5 point rise in the refinery utilization rate to 87.9%. The Keystone pipeline shut-down that began last Wednesday should not affect tomorrow's DOE report.
  • For the complete subscription version of this daily report (plus a 13-page big-picture weekly report), along with the earliest possible delivery in the morning, please visit http://www.barchart.com/register/crbfms_usmc.php
    Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (ranked by market cap): UTX-United Technology (Consensus:$1.19), UPS-United Parcel (1.06), AMGN-Amgen (1.47), MMM-3M (1.65), GILD-Gilead Sciences (0.94), FB-Facebook (0.11), DD-DuPont (0.47), VMW-VMWare (0.63), ITW-Illinois Tool (1.06), ACE-ACE Ltd (1.83), RAI-Reynolds America (0.79), AFL-Aflac (1.66), NSC-Norfolk Southern (1.23), BRCM-Broadcom (0.77), BXP-Boston Properties (0.33), PLD-Prologis (0.01), COH-Coach (0.75), ALTR-Altera (0.46), FTI-FMC Technologies (0.57), RF-Regions Financial (0.21), HOG-Harley Davidson (0.59), CHRW-CH Robinson (0.73), JNPR-Juniper Networks (0.17), XRX-Xerox (0.25), VMED-Virgin Media (0.41), SIAL-Sigma-Aldrich (0.94), BCR-CR Bard (1.63), AME-Ametek (0.46).
    Global Financial Calendar
    

    Tuesday 10/23/12
    United States
    0745 ET	ICSC (Int'l Council of Shopping Centers) weekly retailer sales.
    0855 ET	Redbook weekly retailer sales.
    0900 ET	Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan speaks at SIFMA meeting in NY.
    1000 ET	Oct Richmond Fed manufacturing index expected +1 to 5.0, Sep +13.0 to 4.0.
    1130 ET	Weekly 4-week T-bill auction.
    n/a	2-day FOMC meeting begins.
    1300 ET	Treasury auction of $35 billion in 2-year T-notes.
    1630 ET	API weekly U.S. oil statistics.
    Euro-Zone
    1000 ET	Eurozone Oct consumer confidence index expected unch at -25.9, Sep -25.9.
    CHI
    2145 ET	China Oct HSBC flash manufacturing PMI, Sep 47.9.

    Barchart.com provides Financial Quotes, Charts and Technical Analysis for Stock and Commodity Traders.

Barchart Morning Call 7/25

Barchart Morning Call

BC - Wed Jul 25, 7:00AM CDT

Overnight Developments

• Sep E-mini S&Ps are trading mildly higher by +0.41% on the +0.91% rally in European stocks as ECB council member Nowotny floated a possible trial balloon about the ECB giving a banking license to the ESM bailout facility. E-mini S&Ps have been able to shake off the 5% sell-off in Apple this morning on its disappointing quarterly earnings report released late-Tuesday and a weaker-than-expected German IFO business confidence report. Commodity prices are up by an average +0.52% today with crude oil up +0.20%, gold up +0.99%, copper up +0.58%, and agricultural prices trading mostly higher. The dollar index this morning is down -0.44% while EUR/USD is sharply higher by +0.84%. Sep 10-year T-notes are down 6.5 ticks.
• Asian stocks today closed lower almost across the board: Japan -1.44%, Hong Kong -0.14%, China -0.67%, Taiwan -0.42%, Australia -0.22%, Singapore -0.25%, South Korea -0.25%, South Korea -1.34%, India -0.43%, Turkey +0.38%. Chinese stocks today fell to a 3-year low after the IMF warned of downside risks to the economy and on market doubts that the government will loosen property curbs.
• The IMF said the Chinese economy faces significant downside risks but that China is "well placed to respond forcefully, if needed, to a deterioration in the external environment, in particularly through fiscal policy." The IMF said the Chinese economy relies too much on investment and needs to boost consumption and channel investor savings away from housing.
• Apple late Tuesday disappointed the market by reporting iPhone sales of 26 million in fiscal-Q3 that were below the market consensus of 28.4 million. Lagging iPhone sales caused Apple to miss the consensus quarterly revenue and EPS estimates for only the second time since 2003. Fiscal Q3 EPS of $9.32 was well behind the consensus of $10.37. Lagging iPhone sales are due to customers waiting to buy an iPhone until the next model comes in and to increased competition.
• Germany today sold 3 billion euros on 30-year bonds, which was in line with its intended target. The average yield on the bonds was a record low 2.17%, down from 2.41% at the last 30-year bond auction on April 25.
• ECB council member Ewald Nowotny said that he sees arguments in favor of granting the ESM bailout fund a banking license, although he added that he is not aware that the ECB is actively considering the matter. A banking license would allow the ESM to borrow large amounts of cash from the ECB and greatly expand its bailout capacity beyond the current 500 billion euros (100 billion euros of which is going toward the Spanish bailout). The operation of the ESM has been delayed until at least September as the German Constitutional Court considers an initial Sep 12 preliminary ruling on a constitutional challenge to the ESM and the fiscal pact.
• Japan's seasonally adjusted trade balance report was better than expected and that was mildly bullish for the yen and bearish for USD/JPY. Japan's June seasonally adjusted trade deficit was -300.8 billion yen, narrower than the expected deficit of -402 billion yen. June exports fell -2.3% y/y, which was better than market expectations for a -3.0% y/y decline.
• Germany's July IFO business climate index fell to 103.3 from a revised 105.2 in June, which was weaker than market expectations of 104.5. That was the third consecutive monthly decline and the lowest level in more than two years. The July IFO current assessment index fell to 111.6 from 113.9 in June, which was weaker than market expectations of 113.0. The July IFO expectations index fell to 95.6 from a revised 97.2 in June, which was weaker than market expectations of 96.8.
• UK Q2 GDP fell -0.7% q/q and -0.8% y/y, which was substantially weaker than market expectations of -0.2% q/q and -0.3% y/y. Q2 was the worst quarter in three years and added to the -0.3% q/q decline seen in Q1, leaving the UK in a recession. However, part of the reason for the decline was technical and was related to extra holidays due to the Queen's Jubilee and the wettest Q2 on record that helped cause a 5.2% plunge in construction.
  Market Comments
  • Sep E-mini S&Ps this morning are up 5.50 points (+0.41%) thanks to higher European stocks and some short-covering after the 3-session decline. E-mini S&Ps have been able to shake off today's 5% sell-off in Apple and negative German IFO business confidence news. The U.S. stock market on Tuesday closed sharply lower for the third straight session: S&P 500 -0.90%, Dow Jones -0.82%, Nasdaq 100 -0.87%. Bearish factors included (1) the sharp drop in the July Richmond Fed manufacturing index to -17 from a revised -1 in June, (2) weaker-than-expected German PMI reports for manufacturing (-1.7 to 43.3) and services (-0.2 to 49.7), (3) the further rise in the Spanish 10-year bond yield by 12 bp to 7.57% and the 26 bp rise in the Italian bond yield to 6.57%, (4) Moody's late-Monday change to a negative outlook for the Aaa ratings for Germany, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg, (5) the cut in earnings guidance by UPS, which had negative implications for U.S. economic growth, and (6) a Reuters report quoting European officials as saying that Greece is likely to miss its debt reduction targets. Stock prices on Tuesday received some support from (1) the Monday night's news that China's July manufacturing PMI from HSBC/Markit rose by 1.3 points to 49.5 from 48.2 in June, and (2) a Wall Street Journal report on Tuesday saying that the Fed is getting closer to taking additional stimulus steps.
  • Sep 10-year T-notes this morning are down 6.5 ticks on today's rally in E-mini S&Ps and European stocks. Sep 10-year T-note prices on Tuesday closed higher: TYU2 +6.5, FVU2 +1.25. T-notes received another boost on Tuesday on the sharp sell-off in the U.S. stock market and the increased concern about Europe.
  • The dollar index this morning is down -0.37 points (-0.44%) and EUR/USD is up +0.0101 (+0.84%) on technical reactions tied to ECB council member Nowotny's favorable view of giving the ESM a banking license. USD/JPY is slightly higher by +0.05 (+0.06%). The dollar index on Tuesday closed higher: Dollar index +0.299 (+0.36%), EUR/USD -0.0056 (-0.46%), USD/JPY -0.22 (-0.28%). The dollar index on Tuesday posted another new 2-year high and EUR/USD posted a new 2-year low. The dollar index rallied on Tuesday and as crunch time is coming for Greece and as the Spanish bond yield is now above 7.50%.
  • Sep WTI crude oil prices this morning are mildly higher by +0.18 (+0.20%) but Sep gasoline is down -0.0259 (-0.95%). Crude oil and gasoline prices on Tuesday closed mixed: CLU2 +0.36 (+0.41%), RBU2 -0.0308 (-1.37%). Crude oil prices on Tuesday closed mildly higher on some short-covering after the sharp sell-off seen in the previous two sessions. There were no reports of any progress in Tuesday's round of negotiations at the technical level between Iran and the world powers over Iran's nuclear program. The market consensus for Wednesday's weekly DOE report is for a 1.5 million barrel drop in crude oil inventories for the fifth consecutive weekly decline, a 500,000 barrel drop in gasoline inventories, a 1 million barrel increase in distillate inventories, and a 0.5 point drop in the refinery utilization rate to 91.5% of capacity from 92.0% last week.
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    Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (ranked by market cap): Pepsico (Consensus $1.10), V-Visa (1.45), COP-ConocoPhillips (1.19), BMY-Bristol-Myer-Squibb (0.48), BA-Boeing (1.12), CAT-Caterpillar (2.28), LLY-Eli Lilly (-0.77), SO-Southern (0.68), F-Ford Motor (0.29), LVS-Las Vegas Sands (0.60), PX-Praxair (1.42), ACE-ACE Ltd (1.91), GD-General Dynamics (1.74), WLP-Wellpoint (2.08), EQR-Euity Residential (0.12), ALXN-Alexion Pharm (0.36), TMO-Thermo Fisher (1.16), GLW-Corning (0.31), LO-Lorillard (2.32), CCI-Crown Castle (0.17), NOC-Northrop Grumman (1.61), T Rowe Price (0.81), WFM-Whole Foods Market (0.61), HES-Hess Corp (1.38), Citrix Systems (0.60), AVB-Avalonbay (0.65), TEL-TE Connectivity (0.78), MSI-Motorola Solutions (0.69), HCA-HCA Holdings (0.78), REGN-Regeneron Pharm (0.50), ORLY-O'Reilly Automotive (1.14), CBE-Cooper Industries (1.12), AMP-Ameriprise (1.34).
    Global Financial Calendar
    

    Wednesday 7/25/12
    United States
    0700 ET	Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous +16.9%, purchase sub-index -0.1%, refi sub-index +21.6%.
    1000 ET	June new home sales expected +0.4% to 371,000, May +7.6% to 369,000.
    1030 ET	DOE Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
    1300 ET	Treasury sells $35 bln in 5-year T-notes.
    Germany
    0400 ET	Jul German IFO business climate expected -0.8 to 104.5, Jun 105.3. Jul IFO current assessment expected -0.9 to 113.0, Jun 113.9. Jul IFO expectations expected -0.5 to 96.8, Jun 97.3.
    United Kingdom
    0430 ET	UK Q2 GDP expected -0.2% q/q and -0.3% y/y, Q1 -0.3% q/q and -0.2% y/y.
    0600 ET	Jul UK CBI trends total orders expected -10, Jun -11. Jul CBI trends selling prices expected 0, Jun 2. Jul CBI business optimism expected 0, June 22.
    Japan
    1950 ET	Jun Japan corporate service price index expected unch y/y, May +0.1% y/y.

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Barchart Morning Call 4/24

Barchart Morning Call

BC - 1 hr 39 mins ago

Overnight Developments

• Global stock and commodity prices are mostly higher with June E-mini S&Ps up +5.25 points and the Euro Stoxx 50 up +0.38%. Stocks and commodities rose and Treasuries and the dollar fell as yields on Spanish and Dutch government debt declined, which temporarily reduces European sovereign-debt concerns. Sparking a gain in European stocks was the unexpected +1 point increase in Apr French consumer confidence to a 17-month high of 88, stronger than expectations of unchanged at 87. The euro erased its gains against the dollar when Spain auctioned 1.9 billion euros of 84- and 175-day bills, less than the maximum 2 billion-euro target. Stock and euro gains were also limited over political uncertainty after French Socialist presidential candidate Hollande, who leads in the polls ahead the May 6 run-off election with incumbent candidate Sarkozy, pledged to reverse French austerity measures if he's elected. Hollande has repeatedly criticized the German-advocated austerity and said that he'll send a draft proposal of the changes he would like to see to the treaty of the 25 EU leaders who signed the German-inspired treaty on Mar 2.
• Asian stocks today closed mixed with Japan down -0.78%, China -0.04%, Australia +0.18%, South Korea -0.34%, India +0.65%. Asian stocks fluctuated between gains and losses as Australian shares rallied after core consumer prices rose less than expected while political uncertainty in Europe limited gains in other Asian markets. Q1 Australia core consumer prices rose +0.3% q/q, weaker than expectations of +0.6% q/q, and its lowest rate of increase since Q3 of 1998. This sent yields on 5-year Australian bonds to a record low 3.094% and boosted the chance of an RBA interest rate cut at next week's central bank meeting. Chinese stocks finished little changed as the political uncertainty in Europe, China's biggest export market, limited gains in equities, while strength in the yen against the dollar weakened Japanese exporters and led Japanese shares lower.

Overnight U.S. Stock News

• June E-mini S&Ps this morning are trading up +5.25 points on reduced European debt concerns after Spanish and Dutch bond yields declined. The U.S. stock market on Monday followed other global bourses sharply lower on concern that economic growth was weakening after Apr manufacturing activity contracted in China and Europe, along with concern that political turmoil in France and the Netherlands would worsen the European sovereign-debt crisis: Dow Jones -0.78%, S&P 500 -0.84%, Nasdaq Composite -1.00%. The S&P fell to a 1-1/2 week low, the Dow posted a 1-week low and the Nasdaq slumped to a 1-1/2 month low. Bank stocks followed European bank shares lower after credit-default swaps to insure French government debt rose to a 3-month high when French President Sarkozy failed to win the first round of elections and after the extra yield investors demand to hold Dutch 10-year bonds over German bunds rose to a 3-year high on speculation the Netherlands will need to hold early elections after Dutch Prime Minister Rutte offered his cabinet's resignation when his party failed to reach an agreement with a coalition party over austerity measures. Raw-material and energy producers closed lower as well as commodities slumped on demand concerns after Apr Chinese manufacturing data indicates China's production may contract for a sixth and after Apr European manufacturing activity declined more than expected.
• Texas Instruments (TXN) rose 3.5% in European trading after the company said Q2 profit will be 30 cents to 38 cents a share on revenue of $3.22 billion to $3.48 billion, stronger than analysts' estimates of earnings of 32 cents a share on sales of $3.28 billion.

Today's Market Focus

• June 10-year T-notes this morning are down -7 ticks. T-note prices Monday rallied up to a 2-1/2 month high and settled higher on global growth concerns after Chinese and European manufacturing data contracted along with an increase in the safe-haven demand for Treasuries as global equity markets fell on concern the European debt crisis may worsen due to political turmoil in France and the Netherlands: TYM2 +10.0, FVM2 +4.7. Political turmoil in Europe boosted T-note prices after the Dutch government split and French President Sarkozy trailed in first round elections, while increased speculation that Fed Chairman Bernanke may hint at QE 3 following Wednesday's FOMC meeting further supported gains in Treasuries. Another positive was carry-over strength from a rally in German bunds after the 10-year bund yield fell to a euro-era low of 1.633%. Limiting gains in T-notes were supply pressures ahead of $99 billion in T-note auctions this week starting with Tuesday's $35 billion auction of 2-year T-notes.
• The dollar index this morning is lower with USD/JPY +0.03 yen and EUR/USD +0.13 cents. The dollar index on Monday strengthened and settled higher on increased safe-haven demand after global equity markets tumbled along with euro weakness amid political turmoil in Europe: Dollar Index +0.226, USD/JPY -0.334, EUR/USD -0.00661. The euro weakened on concern the European debt crisis may worsen after Dutch Prime Minister Rutte offered his cabinet's resignation after his party failed to win support for austerity measures, while credit-default swaps to insure French government debt rose to a 3-month high after French President Sarkozy failed to win the first round of elections that forces him to a run-off election May 6 with challenger Francois Hollande. Another negative for the euro was the EU data that showed the debt of the 17 Euro-Zone nations climbed to 87.2% of GDP in 2011, the highest since the euro's introduction in 1999, while an unexpected drop in the Apr Euro-Zone composite PMI to its weakest level in 5 months (-1.7 to 47.4) points to contraction in the European economy. Lifting the euro off of its low was comments from ECB Council member Nowotny who said the ECB has contributed "quite a lot" and that he sees "no point" in cutting ECB interest rates or in offering additional 3-year loans to banks.
• Jun crude oil prices this morning are trading up +4 cents a barrel and Jun gasoline is -1.88 cents per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices on Monday settled mixed as contraction in European and Chinese manufacturing activity In Apr indicates global economic weakness that undercut crude, while a report from the Federal Highway Administration that said U.S. miles driven in Feb was up +1.7% y/y lifted gasoline on signs of stronger fuel demand: CLM12 -0.77, RBM2 +3.76. Jun crude slipped to a 1-week low while gasoline tumbled to a 7-week low but recovered its losses and closed higher. Other bearish factors were (1) slowing crude demand in China after Mar China oil demand fell to 9.512 million barrels a day, the slowest in 5-months, (2) and (2) speculation that Sunoco was entering a joint venture with Carlyle Group in a bid to keep Sunoco's 330,000 barrel-a-day Philadelphia refinery open, which reduces gasoline supply concerns on the U.S. East Coast, and (3) a slump in global equities on concern the European debt crisis may worsen and weaken economic growth and energy demand as political uncertainty rose in Europe after Dutch Prime Minister Rutte offered to quit when he failed to reach an agreement with a coalition party over austerity measures and as French President Sarkozy failed to win the first round of elections.

Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (sorted by mkt cap): AAPL-Apple (consensus $9.98), T-AT&T (0.57), UTX-United Technologies (1.19), MMM-3M Co. (1.49), AMGN-Amgen (1.46), BIDU-Baidu (0.86), ITW-Illinois Tool Works (0.95), ACE-Ace Ltd. (1.87), RAI-Reynolds American (0.65), NSC-Norfolk Southern (1.12), COH-Coach (0.75), AFL-Aflac (1.65), APD-Air Products & Chemicals (1.33).
Global Financial Calendar

Tuesday 4/24/12
United States
0745 ET	ICSC (Int?l Council of Shopping Centers) weekly retailer sales.
0855 ET	Redbook weekly retailer sales.
0900 ET	Feb S&P/CaseShiller composite-20 home price index expected +0.2% m/m and -3.5% y/y, Jan unchanged m/m and -3.8% y/y.
0900 ET	FOMC begins 2-day policy meeting.
1000 ET	Apr U.S. consumer confidence (Conference Board) expected -0.6 to 69.6, Mar -1.4 to 70.2.
1000 ET	Apr Richmond Fed manufacturing index expected unchanged at 7, Mar -13 to 7.
1000 ET	Feb FHFA house price purchase only index expected +0.1% m/m, Jan unchanged m/m.
1000 ET	Mar new home sales expected +1.6% to 318,000, Feb -1.6% to 313,000.
1130 ET	Weekly 4-week T-bill auction.
1300 ET	Treasury auctions $35 billion 2-year T-notes.
France
0245 ET	Apr French consumer confidence indicator expected unchanged at 87, Mar +5 to 87.
United Kingdom
0430 ET	Mar U.K. public sector net borrowing expected +14.2 billion pounds, Feb +12.9 billion pounds.
Germany
0500 ET	Germany?s Economy Ministry release new macro-economic forecasts.
Canada
0830 ET	Feb Canada retail sales expected +0.2% and +0.6% less autos, Jan +0.5 and -0.5% less autos.

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Barchart Morning Call 1/31

Barchart Morning Call

Barchart.com - Tue Jan 31, 7:00AM CST

Overnight Developments

• Global stocks this morning are mostly higher with the Euro Stoxx 50 up +0.80% and Mar S&Ps up +5.40 points. The dollar index fell to a 1-1/2 month low while Treasuries and commodities weakened after EU leaders completed a fiscal-discipline treaty that speeds sanctions on high-deficit countries and requires members to enact laws to limit budget shortfalls. Policy makers also decided to bring the region's permanent bailout fund, the European Stability Mechanism, into operation on July 1, a year before schedule. The euro rose against the dollar after Greek Prime Minister Papademos said he's "strongly committed" to reaching a debt-swap pact with bondholders. Yields on Portuguese bonds fell after Prime Minister Coelho said his country's debt has been judged "perfectly sustainable" by the EU and IMF and that there is no risk of writedown on the bonds. Another positive for stocks was the -34,000 drop in Jan German unemployment, bigger than expectations of a -10,000 decline, while the Jan German unemployment rate unexpectedly dipped -0.1 to 6.7%, the lowest since data for a reunified Germany began in 1991. On the negative side, the Dec Euro-Zone unemployment rate remained unchanged at a 13-3/4 year high of 10.4%, while Dec German retail sales unexpectedly fell -1.4% m/m and -0.9% y/y, weaker than expectations of an increase of +0.8% m/m and +0.9% y/y with the -1.4% m/m drop the biggest monthly decline in 2-1/2 years.
• Asian stocks today closed mostly higher with Japan up +0.11%, China +0.14%, Australia -0.24%, South Korea +0.66%, India +1.96%. The yen fell back from a 3-month high against the dollar and lifted Japanese export stocks after Japanese Finance Minister Azumi told reporters that "we are ready to act decisively against excessive and speculative currency moves if needed." Japanese stocks finished higher as optimism rose that European leaders will find a resolution to the region's debt crisis and after Dec Japan industrial production jumped +4.0% m/m, bigger than expectations of +3.0% m/m and the biggest monthly increase in 7 months. Chinese stocks closed higher and received a boost from a Securities Times article that said China may announce methods for local pensions to invest in the stock market as soon as the first quarter with as much as 30% of pension assets, or about 580 billion yuan ($91.6 billion) allowed for stock investments.

Overnight U.S. Stock News

• March S&Ps this morning are trading up +5.40 points. The US stock market on Monday fell back and settled lower on concern the European sovereign-debt crisis may worsen along with concern U.S. economic growth may weaken after consumer spending stalled in Dec: Dow Jones -0.05%, S&P 500 -0.25%, Nasdaq Composite -0.16%. The S&P 500 and the Dow posted 1-1/2 week lows. Bearish factors on Monday included (1) carry-over weakness from a slide in European stocks on concern the region's debt crisis may worsen after Portugal's 10-year bond yield rose to a euro-era record of 17.39% and as Greece debt-swap talks remain unresolved, (2) the unexpected stagnation in Dec U.S. personal spending (unchanged m/m versus expectations of +0.1%), and (3) weakness in energy and raw material producers as a strong dollar fueled a decline in most commodities.
• Bullish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected increase in Dec personal income which posted its biggest gain in 9 months (+0.5% versus expectations of +0.4%), (2) the fall in the 10-year T-note yield to a 1-1/4 month low of 1.811%, and (3) decent Q4 earnings results thus far as 66% of the 170 companies in the S&P 500 that reported earnings results since Jan 9 have beaten analysts' estimates.
• Hologic (HOLX) climbed 7.1% in pre-market trading after the company raised its 2012 profit forecast to as much as $1.38 a share, higher than analysts' estimates of $1.36.

Today's Market Focus

• March 10-year T-notes this morning are down -6.5 ticks. T-note prices on Monday posted a fresh contract high for a second day and settled higher on increased safe-haven demand from the European debt crisis along with concern U.S. economic growth may slow after Dec personal spending unexpectedly stagnated: TYH2 +10.0, FVH2 +2.5, EDM2 unchanged. The 10-year T-note yield fell to a 1-1/4 month low of 1.811%. Bullish factors included (1) the unexpected stagnation in Dec U.S. personal spending (unchanged m/m versus expectations of +0.1%), and (2) increased safe-haven demand for Treasuries on concern the European debt crisis may worsen after Portugal's 10-year bond yield rose to a euro-era record of 17.39% and as Greece debt-swap talks remain unresolved. Bearish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected increase in Dec personal income which posted its biggest gain in 9 months (+0.5% versus expectations of +0.4%) and (2) hawkish comments from Philadelphia Fed President Plosser who said the Fed may have to raise interest rates this year and that last week's post-FOMC statement to keep rates near zero through late 2014 "isn't a firm commitment."
• The dollar index this morning is weaker and at a fresh 1-1/2 month low with the dollar/yen +0.04 yen and the euro/dollar +0.46 cents. The dollar index on Monday rallied and settled higher as the euro weakened on concern the European sovereign debt crisis may worsen after Portuguese government bond yields soared to a euro-era record and Greece debt-swap talks remain unresolved: Dollar Index +0.265, USDJPY -0.333, EURUSD -0.00752. Bullish factors included (1) increased safe-haven demand for the dollar after Portugal's 10-year bond yield rose to a euro-era record of 17.39% on concern investors will have to take losses on their Portuguese bond holdings in the wake of a Greek debt deal, (2) the unresolved Greek debt-swap talks and the report from Der Spiegel that a second Greek bailout now requires 145 billion euros, 15 billion euros more than was agreed to in Oct, and (3) weak demand for Italian government debt after Italy sold 7.5 billion euros of debt due between 2016 and 2022, less than its maximum target of 8 billion euros. Bearish factors Monday included (1) the weaker-than-expected Dec U.S. personal spending, which bolsters concern that economic growth may slow and is dollar negative and (2) concern the foreign exchange market is too one-sided against the euro, which may fuel short covering after CFTC data showed large traders increased their short positions in the euro to a record for the fifth consecutive week as euro short positions climbed to a record 171,347 as of Jan 24.
• Mar crude oil prices this morning are up +$1.40 a barrel and Mar gasoline is +1.86 cents per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices on Monday fell back and settled lower as the dollar strengthened, stocks fell and concerns grew that Greek debt-swap talks will falter and lead to default, which may weaken the European economy: CLH12 -$0.78, RBH12 -5.07. Bearish factors included (1) strength in the dollar, which discourages investment demand in commodities, (2) the slump in the S&P 500 to a 1-week low, which reduces confidence in the economic outlook and energy demand, (3) concern that Greek bailout negotiations will falter and lead to a Greek default, which may slow European economic growth and fuel demand, (4) the weaker-than-expected Dec U.S. personal spending, which bolsters concern that economic growth and fuel demand will slow, and (5) comments from OPEC Secretary General Abdalla El-Badri who said global oil markets are "very well supplied." Bullish factors included (1) comments from the United Steelworkers Union that strikes at U.S. oil refineries may be imminent as negotiations near a Feb 1 deadline, which would reduce U.S. gasoline supplies and (2) the report from the Fars news agency that said Iran's parliament drafted legislation calling for the government to halt oil exports to Europe until the EU cancels its planned ban on Iranian crude.

Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap): XOM-Exxon Mobil (BEST earnings consensus $1.98), PFE-Pfizer (0.47), AMZN-Amazon.com (0.47), UPS-United Parcel Service (1.26), BIDU-Baidu (0.89), LLY-Eli Lilly (0.81), DHR-Danaher (0.78), BIIB-Biogen Idec (1.49), ITW-Illinois Tool Works (0.88), ACE-ACE Ltd. (1.78), AFL-Aflac (1.51), TYC-Tyco International Ltd. (0.79), ADM-Archer-Daniels-Midland (0.76), BRCM-Broadcom (0.65), VLO-Valero Energy (-0.11), MAT-Mattel (1.00).
Global Financial Calendar

Tuesday 1/31/12
United States
0745 ET	ICSC (Int?l Council of Shopping Centers) weekly retailer sales.
0830 ET	Q4 employment cost index expected +0.4%, Q3 +0.3%.
0855 ET	Redbook weekly retailer sales.
0900 ET	Nov S&P/CaseShiller composite-20 home price index expected -0.4% m/m and -3.3% y/y, Oct -0.6% m/m and 3.4% y/y.
0945 ET	Jan Chicago purchasing managers index expected +0.5 to 63.0, Dec -0.1 to 62.5.
1000 ET	Jan U.S. consumer confidence (Conference Board) expected +3.5 to 68.0, Dec +9.3 to 64.5.
1130 ET	Weekly 4-week T-bill auction.
Japan
0000 ET	Dec Japan construction orders, Nov +21.0% y/y.
0000 ET	Dec Japan housing starts expected -1.5% y/y, Nov -0.3% y/y.
2030 ET	Dec Japan labor cash earnings expected -0.4% y/y, Nov -0.2% y/y.
Germany
0200 ET	Dec German retail sales expected +0.8% m/m and +0.9% y/y, Nov -1.0% m/m and +0.8% y/y.
0355 ET	Jan German unemployment change expected -10,000, Dec -22,000. Jan unemployment rate expected unchanged at 6.8%, Dec -0.1 to 6.8%.
France
0245 ET	Dec French producer prices expected -0.1% m/m and +4.7% y/y, Nov +0.4% m/m and +5.6% y/y.
0245 ET	Dec French consumer spending expected +0.2% m/m and -2.1% y/y, Nov -0.1% m/m and -2.1% y/y.
United Kingdom
0430 ET	Dec U.K. net consumer credit expected +0.4 billion pounds, Nov +0.4 billion pounds.
0430 ET	Dec U.K. mortgage approvals expected +54,000, Nov +52,900.
0430 ET	Dec U.K. M4 money supply, Nov -0.6% m/m and -2.6% y/y.
Euro-Zone
0500 ET	Dec Euro-Zone unemployment rate expected +0.1 to 10.4%, Nov unchanged at 10.3%.
Canada
0830 ET	Dec Canada industrial product prices, Nov +0.2% m/m. Dec raw materials price index, Nov +3.8% m/m.
0830 ET	Nov Canada GDP expected +0.2% m/m, Oct unchanged m/m and +2.7% y/y.
CHI
2000 ET	Jan China PMI manufacturing expected -0.7 to 49.6, Dec +1.3 to 50.3.

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Barchart Morning Call 10/25

Barchart Morning Call

Barchart.com - 46 mins ago

Overnight Developments

• U.S. and European stocks this morning are trading higher with the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.17% and Dec S&Ps up 6.20 points (+0.50%). The markets remain optimistic ahead of tomorrow's European summit. German parliament members today will review the two plans that are being proposed to leverage the EFSF. One plan involves partially insuring sovereign bond issuance and the other plan involves the EFSF buying sovereign debt and then selling bonds to finance those purchases. The German parliament will vote on the EFSF expansion tomorrow, the same day as the European summit, and approval is expected. Deutsche Bank today reported net income of 725 million euros, which was substantially better than the consensus of 343 million euros. BP is up more that 4% today on a better than expected earnings report. However, STMicroelectronics, Europe's largest semiconductor producer, fell 7% on weaker-than-expected sales. Forty three of the S&P 500 companies are due to release results today including UPS and Amazon.com. Texas Instruments is down 0.9% in European trading after Q3 results showed lower than expected sales.
• Asian stocks today closed mixed: Japan -0.92%, Hong Kong +1.05%, China +1.89%, Taiwan +0.28%, Australia -0.64%, Singapopre +0.33%, South Korea -0.41%, Bombay +1.86%. India's central bank today raised its repurchase rate by 25 bp to 8.50% from 8.25%, which was generally in line with market expectations. India's central bank has now raised its policy rate by a total of 375 bp since March 2010 in an effort to curb inflation pressures. Indian's wholesale inflation rate hit 9.7% in September. However, the central bank today indicated that another rate hike may not be forthcoming soon since it said that the likelihood of a rate change at its next policy review in December is "relatively low."

Overnight U.S. Stock News

• December S&Ps this morning are up 6.20 points (+0.50%) on continued optimism about Wednesday's European summit cominbed with the recent better-than-expected U.S. economic data and comments by several Fed officials about the possible need for additional support measures. The US stock market on Monday extended last Friday's sharp rally: Dow Jones +0.89%, S&P 500 +1.29%, Nasdaq Composite +2.35%. Bullish factors included (1) the 1.2 point rise in China?s flash Oct purchasing managers index from HSBC/Markit to 5-month high of 51.1 from 49.9 in September, (2) the +2.4% y/y rise in Japanese Sep exports, stronger than expectations of +1% and just below August?s +2.8% y/y gain, (3) a 5% rally in Caterpillar on positive earnings news, which bode well for global demand, (4) the comment by NY Fed President William Dudley that the Fed wants to keep mortgage rates down and that QE3 is "possible," and (5) continued optimism that Europe will get a deal done to address the debt crisis.

Today's Market Focus

• December 10-year T-notes this morning are trading -6 ticks on the continued decline in safe-haven demand with the rally in stocks. T-note prices on Monday closed lower: TYZ11 -10, FVZ11 -4.75, EDH12 +1.5. The main bearish factor was the continued rally in the U.S. stock market and reduced safe-haven demand tied to expectations for a European deal on the debt crisis. However, the T-note market received support from NY Fed President William Dudley's comment that the Fed wants to keep mortgage rates down and that QE3 is "possible." That was the third Fed official in as many business days mentioning further easing moves. Fed Vice Chairman Janet Yellen last Friday said that a third round of quantatitive easing might become warranted and Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo last Thursday said the Fed should consider a program of buying mortgage securities.
• The dollar index this morning is trading down -0.139 points with USDJPY +0.04 yen and EURUSD +0.20 cents. The dollar continued to be undercut by reduced safe-haven demand. The dollar index on Monday continued lower due to the continued rally in the stock market and waning safe-haven demand: Dollar Index -0.367, USDJPY 0.19, EURUSD +0.0033. USDJPY on Monday consolidated mildly above last Friday?s record low of 75.82 yen and failed to get a significant boost from implicit threats from Japanese officials about intervention. The euro continues to rally on expectations that Eurozone leaders are moving towards a deal at their summit on Wednesday that includes bank recapitalization, expansion of the EFSF fund, and a larger haircut for Greek bond holders.
• Dec crude oil prices this morning are up $2.60 but Dec gasoline is down 1.24 cents. Crude oil is higher on improved optimism about global demand while gasoline is lower on expectations for reduced seasonal demand. Crude oil and gasoline prices on Monday rallied with Dec crude oil breaking out out to a new 2-1/2 month high: CLZ11 +$3.87, RBZ11 +0.0121. Bullish factors included (1) the drawdown in inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, the pricing hub for the WTI contract, (2) the 1.2 point rise in China?s flash Oct purchasing managers index from HSBC/Markit to 5-month high of 51.1 from 49.9 in September, which sparked expectations for increased Chinese fuel demand, (3) the rally in U.S. stocks and the improved perception of the U.S. and global economy.

Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap): AMZN-Amazon (BEST earnings consensus $0.54), UPS-United Parcel (1.05), MMM-3M (1.61), DD-DuPont (0.56), SPG-Simon Property (0.68), NOV-National Oilwell Varco (1.16), ACE- ACE Ltd (1.78), ITW-Illinois Tool Works (0.98), RAI-Reynolds (0.73), BRCOM-Broadcom (0.77), ESRX-Express Script (0.76), CMI-Cummins (2.25), MCK-McKesson (1.39), COH-Coach (0.70), PCAR-Paccar (0.70), TROW-T Rowe Price (0.74), BXP-Boston Properties (0.36), CHRW-CH Robinson (0.70).
Global Financial Calendar

Tuesday 10/25/11
United States
0745 ET	ICSC (Int?l Council of Shopping Centers) weekly retailer sales.
0855 ET	Redbook weekly retailer sales.
0900 ET	Aug S&P/CaseShiller composite-20 home price index expected +0.1% m/m and -3.5% y/y, Jul +0.1% m/m and -4.1% y/y.
1000 ET	Oct U.S. consumer confidence expected +0.6 to 46.0, Sep +0.2 to 45.4.
1000 ET	Aug FHFA U.S. house price purchase index expected +0.2% m/m, Jul +0.8% m/m.
1000 ET	Oct Richmond Fed manufacturing index expected +7 to 1, Sep +4 to -6.
1130 ET	Weekly 4-week T-bill auction.
1300 ET	Treasury auctions $35 billion in 2-year T-notes.
Germany
0200 ET	Nov German GfK consumer confidence survey expected -0.1 to 5.1, Oct unchanged at 5.2.
France
0245 ET	Oct French consumer confidence indicator expected -2 to 78, Sep -2 to 80.
Canada
0830 ET	Aug Canada retail sales expected +0.3% m/m and +0.4% ex-autos, Jul -0.6% m/m and unchanged ex-autos.
0900 ET	Bank of Canada interest rate decision (policy rate expected unchanged at 1.00%).
Japan
1950 ET	Sep Japan corporate service price index expected -0.4% y/y, Aug -0.4% y/y.

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