MORNING CALL 12/15

MORNING CALL

Tuesday, December 15th, 2015View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

March E-mini S&Ps (ESH16 +0.81%) are up +0.83% and European stocks are up +2.37% as a rally in crude oil gives energy producers a lift. Also, European automakers moved higher after Eurozone Nov new car registrations rose more than expected at the fastest pace in 5 months. Mining stocks gained as well, led by a nearly 5% increase in Glencore Plc, after JPMorgan Chase upgraded the stock to a 'Buy,' citing its "credible" strategy update. Asian stocks settled mixed: Japan -1.68%, Hong Kong -0.17%, China -0.29%, Taiwan +0.41%, Australia -0.39%, Singapore +0.02%, South Korea +0.26%, India +0.68%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index fell to a 1-3/4 month low as exporter stocks declined after USD/JPY slipped to a 6-week low, which reduces exporters' earnings prospects.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.02%) is down -0.07% at a 5-week low on speculation the Fed will reiterate that it sees a gradual pace of interest rate increases even after it raises interest rates tomorrow. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.14% at a 1-1/2 month high. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.10%.

Mar T-note prices (ZNH16 -0.10%) are down -7 ticks.

Eurozone Nov new car registrations rose +13.7% y/y to 1.085 million units, the biggest increase in 5 months.

The German Dec ZEW survey expectations of economic growth rose +5.7 to 16.1, stronger than expectations of +4.6 to 15.0.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: Dec Empire manufacturing survey of general business conditions (expected +3.74 to -7.00, Nov +0.62 to -10.74), (2) Nov CPI (expected unch m/m and +0.5% y/y, Oct +0.2% m/m and +0.2% y/y) and core CPI (expected +0.2% m/m and+2.0% y/y, Oct +0.2% m/m and +1.9% y/y), (3) the first day of the 2-day FOMC meeting where the market is discounting a three-quarters chance of a 25 bp rate hike, and (4) Dec NAHB housing market index (expected +1 to 63, Nov -3 to 62).

There is 1 of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: FactSet Research Systems (1.46).

U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: none.

Equity conferences: European Society for Medical Oncology Asia Congress on Fri.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Amgen (AMGN +1.91%) rose nearly 2% in pre-market trading after it said it reacquired all product rights to Prolia, Xgeva and Vectibix from Glaxo in 48 countries.

Lumber Liquidators (LL +1.22%) surged over 15% in after-hours trading when short seller Whitney Tilson said he covered his short position in the company after he said he received new information that shows management wasn't aware it was selling Chinese-made laminate with high levels of formaldehyde.

Amazon.com (AMZN +2.77%) was rated a new 'Buy' at MKM Partners with a price target of $800.

Verizon Communications (VZ +1.41%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at BTIG.

Occidental Petroleum (OXY +0.94%) was rated a new 'Buy' at CLSA with a price target of $83.

Chevron (CVX +3.34%) was rated a new 'Outperform' at CLSA with a price target of $95 and ConocoPhillips (COP +2.91%) was also rated a new 'Outperform' at CLSA with a price target of $52.

VeriFone Systems (PAY unch) climbed nearly 2% in after-hours trading after it raised guidance on fiscal 2016 adjusted EPS to $2.15-$2.17, higher than consensus of $2.12.

Xerox (XRX -1.79%) rose over 1% in after-hours trading after Carl Icahn reported he raised his stake in the company to 8.1% from 7.1%.

Lockheed Martin (LMT -0.29%) was awarded a $1.09 billion U.S. Army pact modification to foreign military sales for Patriot PAC-3 production.

Boeing (BA -1.12%) raised its quarterly dividend to $1.09 a share from 91 cents, higher than expectations of a hike to $1.02, and then raised its stock buyback authorization to $14 billion from $12 billion.

Kennametal (KMT -0.12%) slumped over 20% in after-hours trading after it said it expects its fiscal 2016 revenue may fall as much as 30% to 60% due to weakness in China's auto market and in U.S. coal mining.

MARKET COMMENTS

Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH16 +0.81%) this morning are up +16.75 points (+0.83%). Monday's closes: S&P 500 +0.48%, Dow Jones +0.60%, Nasdaq +0.72%. The S&P 500 on Monday recovered from a 2-month low and closed higher. Stocks received a boost from reduced Chinese economic concerns after China Nov industrial production rose +6.2% y/y, stronger than expectations of +5.7% y/y and the fastest pace of increase in 5 months. In addition, energy producers saw some strength after crude oil prices rebounded from a 6-3/4 year low and closed higher.

Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH16 -0.10%) this morning are down -7 ticks. Monday's closes: TYH6 -23.50, FVH6 -13.50. Mar T-notes on Monday closed lower on long liquidation on expectations for the FOMC to raise the federal funds rate by 25 bp on Wednesday and on carryover weakness from a slide in German bund prices after ECB President Draghi said he expects inflation to return to target "without delay."

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.02%) this morning is down -0.067 (-0.07%) at a 5-week low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0015 (+0.14%) at a 1-1/2 month high. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.12 (+0.10%). Monday's closes: Dollar Index +0.039 (+0.04%), EUR/USD +0.0006 (+0.05%), USD/JPY +0.02 (+0.02%). The dollar index on Monday closed slightly higher on expectations for the Fed to raise interest rates at the conclusion of Wednesday's FOMC meeting and on the rally in stocks, which caused USD/JPY to recover from a 5-week low and close higher on reduced safe-haven demand or the yen. The dollar was undercut as EUR/USD which rose to 5-week high after Eurozone Oct industrial production rose more than expected and after ECB President Draghi said he expects inflation to return to target "without delay."

Jan crude oil (CLF16 +0.77%) this morning is up +47 cents (+1.29%) and Jan gasoline (RBF16 -1.50%) is down -0.0199 (-1.58%). Monday's closes: CLF6 +0.65 (+1.82%), RBF6 -0.0386 (-3.01%). Jan crude oil and gasoline on Monday settled mixed as Jan crude recovered from a 6-3/4 year low. Crude oil prices received a boost from short-covering on news that China Nov industrial production and retail sales rose more than expected, and optimism that Congress may lift the 40-year old U.S. crude export ban. Crude prices earlier slumped to a fresh 6-3/4 year low after Iran's deputy oil minister said that there's "absolutely no chance" Iran will delay its plan to increase crude exports even as prices decline.

 China Nov industrial production rose +6.2% y/y, stronger than expectations of +5.7% y/y and the fastest pace of increase in 5 months. In addition, energy producers saw some strength after crude oil prices rebounded from a 6-3/4 year low and closed higher.

Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH16 -0.10%) this morning are down -7 ticks. Monday's closes: TYH6 -23.50, FVH6 -13.50. Mar T-notes on Monday closed lower on long liquidation on expectations for the FOMC to raise the federal funds rate by 25 bp on Wednesday and on carryover weakness from a slide in German bund prices after ECB President Draghi said he expects inflation to return to target "without delay."

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.02%) this morning is down -0.067 (-0.07%) at a 5-week low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0015 (+0.14%) at a 1-1/2 month high. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.12 (+0.10%). Monday's closes: Dollar Index +0.039 (+0.04%), EUR/USD +0.0006 (+0.05%), USD/JPY +0.02 (+0.02%). The dollar index on Monday closed slightly higher on expectations for the Fed to raise interest rates at the conclusion of Wednesday's FOMC meeting and on the rally in stocks, which caused USD/JPY to recover from a 5-week low and close higher on reduced safe-haven demand or the yen. The dollar was undercut as EUR/USD which rose to 5-week high after Eurozone Oct industrial production rose more than expected and after ECB President Draghi said he expects inflation to return to target "without delay."

Jan crude oil (CLF16 +0.77%) this morning is up +47 cents (+1.29%) and Jan gasoline (RBF16 -1.50%) is down -0.0199 (-1.58%). Monday's closes: CLF6 +0.65 (+1.82%), RBF6 -0.0386 (-3.01%). Jan crude oil and gasoline on Monday settled mixed as Jan crude recovered from a 6-3/4 year low. Crude oil prices received a boost from short-covering on news that China Nov industrial production and retail sales rose more than expected, and optimism that Congress may lift the 40-year old U.S. crude export ban. Crude prices earlier slumped to a fresh 6-3/4 year low after Iran's deputy oil minister said that there's "absolutely no chance" Iran will delay its plan to increase crude exports even as prices decline.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR12/15/2015

US	0830 ET	Dec Empire manufacturing survey of general business conditions expected +3.74 to -7.00, Nov +0.62 to -10.74.
	0830 ET	Nov CPI expected unch m/m and +0.5% y/y, Oct +0.2% m/m and +0.2% y/y. Nov CPI ex food & energy expected +0.2% m/m and+2.0% y/y, Oct +0.2% m/m and +1.9% y/y.
	0930 ET	FOMC begins 2-day policy meeting.
	1000 ET	Dec NAHB housing market index expected +1 to 63, Nov -3 to 62.
EUR	0200 ET	Eurozone Nov new car registrations, Oct +2.9% y/y.
	0500 ET	Eurozone Q3 employment, Q2 +0.3% q/q and +0.8% y/y.
UK	0430 ET	UK Nov CPI expected -0.1% m/m and +0.1% y/y, Oct +0.1% m/m and -0.1% y/y. Nov core CPI expected +1.2% y/y, Oct +1.1% y/y.
	0430 ET	UK Nov RPI expected unch m/m and +0.9% y/y, Oct unch m/m and +0.7% y/y. Nov RPI ex mortgage interest payments expected +1.0% y/y, Oct +0.8% y/y.
	0430 ET	UK Nov PPI input prices expected -1.0% m/m and -12.4% y/y, Oct +0.2% m/m and -12.1% y/y.
	0430 ET	UK Nov PPI output prices expected -0.1% m/m and -1.3% y/y, Oct unch m/m and -1.3% y/y. Nov PPI output core expected unch m/m and +0.1% y/y, Oct -0.1% m/m and +0.3% y/y.
	0430 ET	UK Oct ONS house prices, Sep +6.1% y/y.
GER	0500 ET	German Dec ZEW expectations of economic growth survey expected +4.6 to 15.0, Nov 10.4. Dec ZEW survey current situation expected-0.2 to 54.2, Nov 54.4.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR12/15/2015

Company	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
FactSet Research Systems Inc	FDS US	7:00	Q1 2016 Earnings Release	Q1 2016	1.463
AGCO Corp	AGCO US	8:30	Analyst Meeting	Y 2015
Kennametal Inc	KMT US	9:00	Analyst Day	Y 2015
3M Co	MMM US	9:00	Q4 2016 Guidance Call	Q4 2016
AECOM	ACM US	9:00	Investor Day	Y 2015
American Water Works Co Inc	AWK US	9:00	Analyst Day	Y 2015
Liberty Property Trust	LPT US	10:00	Q4 2016 Guidance Call	Q4 2016
AmTrust Financial Services Inc	AFSI US	10:00	Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting
FactSet Research Systems Inc	FDS US	11:00	Q1 2016 Earnings Call	Q1 2016
WESCO International Inc	WCC US	11:00	Q4 2016 Guidance Call	Q4 2016
SolarCity Corp	SCTY US	12:30	Analyst Day	Y 2015
FactSet Research Systems Inc	FDS US	15:00	Annual General Meeting	Y 2015
Dover Corp	DOV US	18:30	Investor Meeting	Y 2015
American Express Co	AXP US		Credit-card Charge-offs and Delinquencies
Baker Hughes Inc	BHI US		U.S. Justice Department Deadline on Decision of Halliburton's Takeover of Baker
JPMorgan Chase & Co	JPM US		Credit-card Charge-offs and Delinquencies
Equifax Inc	EFX US		Investor Meeting - Baltimore	Y 2015
Halliburton Co	HAL US		U.S. Justice Department Deadline on Decision of Halliburton's Takeover of Baker
Bank of America Corp	BAC US		Credit-card Charge-offs and Delinquencies
Citigroup Inc	C US		Credit-card Charge-offs and Delinquencies
Questar Corp	STR US		Roadshow - Los Angeles	Y 2015
Morgan Stanley	MS US		Credit-card Charge-offs and Delinquencies
Capital One Financial Corp	COF US		Credit-card Charge-offs and Delinquencies
AmTrust Financial Services Inc	AFSI US		Special Meeting
Discover Financial Services	DFS US		Credit-card Charge-offs and Delinquencies
Synchrony Financial	SYF US		Credit-card Charge-offs and Delinquencies

BARCHART MORNING CALL 12/10

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Wednesday, December 10th, 2014View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 -0.10%) this morning are down -0.06% and European stocks are up +0.56% after Die Zeit reported that ECB President Draghi called German Finance Minister Schaeuble after the Dec 4 ECB meeting in an attempt to garner support in Germany for a government-bond purchase plan to be decided as soon as next month. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan -2.25%, Hong Kong +0.16%, China +3.69%, Taiwan -1.06%, Australia -0.45%, Singapore +0.18%, South Korea -1.52%, India +0.12%. Chinese stocks rallied nearly 4% after a slowdown in inflation bolstered the case for more monetary easing after China Nov CPI rose less than expected at the slowest pace in 5 years. Commodity prices are mostly lower. Jan crude oil (CLF15 -1.91%) is down -1.93% after OPEC cut its 2015 global demand forecast for its crude to a 12-year low. Jan gasoline (RBF15 -2.09%) is down -2.16% at a fresh 5-year low. Feb gold (GCG15 -0.34%) is down -0.33%. Mar copper (HGH15 -0.92%) is down -0.70%. Agriculture prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 unch) is down -0.02%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is unch. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.33%. Mar T-note prices (ZNH15 unch) are unch.
China Nov CPI rose +1.4% y/y, less than expectations of +1.6% y/y and the smallest pace of increase in 5 years. China Nov PPI fell -2.7% y/y, a larger decline than expectations of -2.4% y/y and the steepest drop in 1-1/2 years.
The Japan Nov consumer confidence index unexpectedly fell -1.2 to 37.7, weaker than expectations of +0.6 to 39.5 and the lowest in 7 months.
The Japan Q4 BSI large all-industry business conditions fell -6.1 to 5.0, a bigger decline than expectations of -1.1 to 10.0. Q4 BSI large manufacturing business conditions fell -4.6 to 8.1.
Japan Nov PPI fell -0.2% m/m, a smaller decline than expectations of -0.3% m/m. On an annual basis, Nov PPI rose +2.7% y/y, more than expectations of +2.6% y/y but still the slowest pace of increase in 8 months.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Today’s Nov monthly Treasury budget statement is expected to show a deficit of -$65.0 billion, which would be substantially better than the -$135.2 billion deficit seen a year ago in Nov 2013. The Treasury today will sell $21 billion of 10-year T-notes in a reopening of last month’s 2-1/4% 10-year note of Nov 2024. There are 2 of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: Toll Brothers (consensus $0.73), Costco (1.09).
Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Goldman Sachs Financial Services Conference on Tue-Wed, Barclays Capital Global Technology Conference on Tue-Wed, Wells Fargo Energy Symposium on Tue-Wed, Barclays Real Estate Conference on Wed, BMO Technology Conference on Wed, Mitsubishi UFJ Securities Property REIT Conference on Wed, Wells Fargo Securities Research, Economics & Strategy Energy Symposium on Wed, Credit Lyonnais Securities Asia Ltd Americas Innovation Summit on Wed, Oppenheimer Healthcare Conference on Wed, Bank of America Merrill Lynch US Basic Materials Conference on Wed-Thu, Capital One Southcoast Energy Conference on Wed-Thu, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Animal & Dental Health Summit on Thu, and Desjardins Securities Materials Conference on Thu.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Goldman Sachs (GS +0.14%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Positive' at Susquehanna.
Disney (DIS -0.92%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Topeka due to valuation.
Genesco (GCO +1.16%) was upgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Sell' at Goldman Sachs.
British Petroleum (BP -0.90%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Deutsche Bank.
Costco Wholesale (COST +0.50%) reported Q1 EPS of $1.12, higher than consensus of $1.09.
Yum! Brands (YUM -1.62%) fell nearly 5% in pre-market trading after the company said 2014 EPS, excluding some items, wil rise by a mid-single-figit percentage, well below a previous forecast of 20% growth.
Krispy Kreme (KKD +0.50%) fell over 4% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 18 cents, less than consensus of 19 cents.
Korn/Ferry (KFY +1.71%) rose over 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 EPS of 51 cents, better than consensus of 45 ccents.
Lazard reported a 5.072% passive stake in Mobile TeleSystems (MBT -0.31%) .
CHC Group (HELI +7.35%) reported a Q3 EPS loss of -31 cents, a smaller loss than consensus of -38 cents.

MARKET COMMENTS

Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 -0.10%) this morning are down -1.25 points (-0.06%). The S&P 500 index on Tuesday fell to a 3-week low and closed lower, although stocks recovered from their worst levels after energy producers and technology companies rose: S&P 500 -0.02%, Dow Jones -0.29%, Nasdaq +0.38%. Bearish factors included (1) carry-over weakness from a slide in world equity markets after China tightened collateral rules for short-term loans and sparked a sharp sell-off in Chinese stocks, and (2) renewed Greek debt concerns after the Greek government brought forward the process for choosing a new President this month, a move that risks triggering parliamentary elections that could put a party in power that opposes the terms of Greece’s bailout by the EU.
Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH15 unch) this morning are unch. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices on Tuesday closed higher: TYH5 +12.00, FVH5 +6.75. Bullish factors included (1) reduced inflation expectations after the 10-year break-even rate fell to a new low, and (2) increased safe-haven demand for Treasuries after the S&P 500 tumbled to a 3-week low.
The dollar index (DXY00 unch) this morning is down -0.022 (-0.02%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is unch. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.39 (-0.33%). The dollar index on Tuesday closed lower. Closes: Dollar index -0.351 (-0.39%), EUR/USD +0.00571 (+0.46%), USD/JPY -0.99 (-0.82%). Bearish factors included (1) strength in the yen as USD/JPY fell to a 1-week low after a slide in global equity markets boosted the safe-haven demand for the yen, and (2) strength in EUR/USD which rallied after German Nov exports were a bit stronger than expected.
Jan WTI crude oil (CLF15 -1.91%) this morning is down -$1.23 a barrel (-1.93%) and Jan gasoline (RBF15 -2.09%) is down -0.0372 (-2.16%) at a 5-year low. Jan crude Tuesday rebounded from a 5-1/3 year low and Jan gasoline prices recovered from a 5-year low and closed higher. Closes: CLF5 +0.77 (+1.22%), RBF5 +0.017 (+1.00%). Supportive factors included (1) short covering in most commodities after the dollar index fell, and (2) expectations for Wednesday’s weekly EIA crude inventories to fall -2.7 million bbl.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR12/10/2014

US	0700 ET	Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous -7.3% with purchase sub-index +2.5% and refi sub-index -13.4%.
	1030 ET	EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
	1200 ET	USDA Dec WASDE crop production.
	1300 ET	Treasury auctions $21 billion 10-year T-notes.
	1400 ET	Nov monthly budget statement expected -$65.0 billion, Nov-2013 -$135.2 billion.
JPN	0000 ET	Japan Nov consumer confidence index expected +0.6 to 39.5, Oct 38.9.
	1850 ET	Japan Oct tertiary industry index expected -0.2% m/m, Sep +1.0% m/m.
	1850 ET	Japan Oct machine orders expected -1.7% m/m and -0.3% y/y, Sep +2.9% m/m and +7.3% y/y.
UK	1901 ET	UK Nov RICS house price balance expected 15%, Oct 20%.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR12/10/2014

Company	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Toll Brothers Inc	TOL US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	0.727
Costco Wholesale Corp	COST US	Bef-mkt	Q1 2015 Earnings Release	Q1 2015	1.091
BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc	BMRN US	8:00	Investor Day	Y 2014
Diebold Inc	DBD US	9:00	Investment Community Conference	Y 2014
Tyson Foods Inc	TSN US	9:30	Investor Day	Y 2014
McDonald's Corp	MCD US	11:00	Investor Meeting	Y 2014
Costco Wholesale Corp	COST US	11:00	Q1 2015 Earnings Call	Q1 2015
Brown-Forman Corp	BF/B US	13:00	Analyst Meeting	Y 2014
Pall Corp	PLL US	13:00	Annual General Meeting
Bunge Ltd	BG US	13:00	Investor Day	Y 2014
Toll Brothers Inc	TOL US	14:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
Altera Corp	ALTR US	16:45	Q4 2015 Guidance Call	Q4 2015
Kennametal Inc	KMT US		November 2014 Monthly Orders Release
Progressive Corp/The	PGR US		November 2014 Sales and Revenue Release	2014
Charles Schwab Corp/The	SCHW US		November 2014 Sales and Revenue Release - Activity Report	2014

BARCHART MORNING CALL 12/1

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Monday, December 1st, 2014View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 -0.40%) this morning are down -0.41% and European stocks are down -0.67% on global growth concerns after manufacturing data from China and the Eurozone disappointed. A slump in crude oil prices to a 4-1/3 year low has also undercut energy producers and oil service operators with Exxon Mobile and Schlumberger both down -1.3% in pre-market trading. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +0.75%, Hong Kong -2.58%, China +0.39%, Taiwan -0.76%, Australia -1.98%, Singapore -1.34%, South Korea -0.83%, India -0.47%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index surged to a 7-1/3 year high as exporters rallied after the yen fell to a 7-1/3 year low against the dollar. USD/JPY gave up its advance, however, after Moody's Investors Service cut Japan's credit rating after the Asian equity markets closed. Commodity prices are mostly lower. Jan crude oil (CLF15 -0.51%) is down -0.95% at a 4-1/3 year low on negative carry-over from OPEC's inaction Thursday to cut oil production. Jan gasoline (RBF15 -0.69%) is down -1.03% at a 4-1/4 year low. Feb gold (GCG15 -0.19%) is down -0.18% at a 3-week low. Mar copper (HGH15 -0.23%) is down -0.70% at a contract low. Agriculture prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.33%) is down -0.31%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.06. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.12%. Mar T-note prices (ZNH15 +0.23%) are up +6.5 ticks at a 5-week high.
The China Nov manufacturing PMI fell-0.5 to 50.3, a bigger decline than expectations of -0.3 to 50.5 and the slowest pace of expansion in 9 months.
The German Nov Markit/BME manufacturing PMI was revised lower to 49.5 from the originally reported 50.0, the slowest pace of expansion in 17 months.
The Eurozone Nov Markit manufacturing PMI was revised lower to 50.1 from the previously reported 50.4, the slowest pace of expansion in 17 months.
The UK Nov Markit manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose +0.3 to 53.5, stronger than expectations of -0.2 to 53.0 and the fastest pace of expansion in 4 months.
Moody's Investors Service downgraded Japan's credit rating one notch to A1 from Aa3 citing "heightened uncertainty" about the government's ability to meet its debt reduction goals and uncertainty about the timing and effectiveness of measures to boost economic growth.
Japan Q3 capital spending ex-software rose +5.6% y/y, much more than expectations of +1.5% y/y. Q3 capital spending rose +5.5% y/y, over three times expectations of +1.8% y/y.
Japan Nov vehicle sales fell -13.5% y/y, the largest drop in 17 months and the fourth consecutive month sales have declined.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Today’s Nov U.S. ISM manufacturing index is expected to show a -1.0 point decline to 58.0, reversing nearly one-half of October’s +2.4 point increase to a 3-1/2 year high of 59.0. There is one of the Russell 1000 companies that reports earnings today: Thor Industries (consensus $0.82).
Equity conference this week include: Capital Link Greek Investor Forum on Mon, Deutsche Bank BioFEST Conference on Mon-Tue, NASDAQ OMX Investor Program on Mon-Wed, Cowen Ultimate Energy Conference on Tue, Real Estate Mexico Forum on Tue, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Leveraged Finance Conference on Tue-Wed, Big Data & Analytics for Banking Summit on Tue-Wed, Citi Basic Materials Conference on Tue-Wed, Piper Jaffray Health Care Conference on Tue-Wed, Credit Suisse Global Industrials Conference on Tue-Wed, Credit Suisse Technology Conference on Tue-Thu, Goldman Sachs Global Automotive Conference on Thu, and SEMICON Japan 2014 on Thu.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

CSX (CSX -3.75%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at TD Securities.
Exxon Mobile (XOM -4.17%) and Schlumberger (SLM +0.41%) both fell 1.3% in pre-market trading after the price of crude oil slid to a 4-1/3 year low.
Transocean (RIG -9.71%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Guggenheim.
Diamond Offshore (DO -8.85%) and Seadrill (SDRL -8.32%) were both downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Guggenheim.
UBS upgraded the U.S. banking sector to 'Overweight' based on a positive macro outlook that should increase credit demand and benefits from a new interest rate tightening cycle.
Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL +4.84%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Goldman Sachs.
Deere (DE -0.43%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Neutral' at RW Baird.
Navistar (NAV -0.17%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Longbow.
Groupon (GRPN +0.27%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at BofA/Merrill Lynch.
Alcoa (AA -1.76%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Citigroup.
Barclays keeps an 'Overweight' rating on Apple (AAPL -0.06%) and raises its price target on the stock to $140 from $120.
Liberty Global (LBTYA +7.44%) jumped over 10% in after-hours trading after Bloomberg reported that Vodafone is exploring a takeover of Liberty Global.

MARKET COMMENTS

Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 -0.40%) this morning are down -8.50 points (-0.41%). The S&P 500 index on Friday posted a new record high but fell back and closed lower: S&P 500 -0.25%, Dow Jones unch, Nasdaq +0.46%. The main bearish factor was a slump in energy producers after crude oil prices plunged to a 4-1/3 year low. Bullish factors included (1) a rally in retail stocks amid optimism that this year’s holiday shopping season will be strong, and (2) a rally in airline stocks on speculation that the fall in crude oil prices to a 4-1/2 year low will reduce airlines’ fuel costs and boost profits.
Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH15 +0.23%) this morning are up +6.5 ticks at a new 5-week high. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices on Friday rose to a 5-week high and closed higher: TYH5 +0.00, FVH5 +6.50. Bullish factors included (1) reduced inflation expectations after the 10-year U.S. break-even inflation expectations rate fell to the lowest level in 3 years, and (2) carry-over support from a rally in German bunds that pushed the 10-year bund yield down to a record low of 0.694%.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.33%) this morning is down -0.270 (-0.31%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0008 (+0.06%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.14 (-0.12%). The dollar index on Friday closed higher. Closes: Dollar index +0.749 (+0.85%), EUR/USD -0.00195 (-0.16%), USD/JPY +0.902 (+0.76%). Bearish factors included (1) weakness in EUR/USD on speculation the ECB will expand stimulus after the Eurozone Nov CPI eased to a 5-year low of +0.3% y/y, and (2) weakness in the yen as USD/JPY climbed to a 1-week high on speculation the BOJ may expand stimulus after Japan Oct national CPI eased to a 7-month low of +2.9% y/y, less than expectations of +3.0% y/y.
Jan WTI crude oil (CLF15 -0.51%) this morning is down -63 cents (-0.95%) at a fresh 4-1/3 year low and Jan gasoline (RBF15 -0.69%) is down -0.0189 (-1.03%) at a 4-1/4 year low. Jan crude and Jan gasoline on Friday sold off sharply with Jan crude at a 4-1/2 year low and Jan gasoline at a 4-year low. Closes: CLF5 -7.54 (-10.23%), RBF5 -0.1917 (-9.53%). Bearish factors included (1) OPEC’s decision not to cut production at its meeting on Thursday, which was a clear declaration of a price war against high-cost oil producers, and (2) the rally in the dollar.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR12/01/2014

US	0945 ET	Revised Nov Markit manufacturing PMI expected +0.3 to 55.0, previous -1.2 to 54.7.
	1000 ET	Nov ISM manufacturing index expected -1.0 to 58.0, Oct +2.4 to 59.0. Nov ISM new orders sub-index, Oct +5.8 to 65.8. Nov ISM employment sub-index, Oct +0.9 to 55.5. Nov ISM prices paid sub-index expected -1.0 to 52.5, Oct -6.0 to 53.5.
	1100 ET	USDA weekly grain export inspections.
	1215 ET	New York Fed President William Dudley speaks on the economic outlook at Bernard M. Baruch College.
	1300 ET	Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer speaks on the Feds role in the global economy at a symposium commemorating the 100th anniversary of the Fed.
	1600 ET	USDA weekly crop progress.
JPN	0000 ET	Japan Nov vehicle sales, Oct -9.1% y/y.
	2030 ET	Japan Oct labor cash earnings expected +0.8% y/y, Sep +0.7% y/y.
GER	0355 ET	Revised German Nov Markit/BME manufacturing PMI, previous 50.0.
EUR	0400 ET	Revised Eurozone Nov Markit manufacturing PMI, previous 50.4.
UK	0430 ET	UK Oct net consumer credit expected +1.0 billion pounds, Sep +0.9 billion pounds.
	0430 ET	UK Oct mortgage approvals expected 59,000, Sep 61,300.
	0430 ET	UK Oct M4 money supply, Sep -0.7% m/m and -2.5% y/y.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR12/01/2014

Company Name	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
B/E Aerospace Inc	BEAV US	9:30	Investor Meeting	Y 2014
Kennametal Inc	KMT US		Investor Meeting - Day 1	Y 2014
Thor Industries Inc	THO US		Q1 2015 Earnings Release	Q1 2015	0.815

BARCHART MORNING CALL 6/24

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Tuesday, June 24th, 2014View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

September E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 -0.18%) this morning are down -0.18% and European stocks are little changed, up +0.01%, after the German Jun IFO business conditions fell more than expected to a 6-month low, a sign that the European economy may be slowing. Losses in European stocks were limited on a possible short-term truce to the hostilities in Ukraine. The ruble strengthened against the dollar and the Russian Micex Stock Index rallied over 1% after pro-Russian forces in Ukraine called for a cease-fire, matching a truce made earlier by Ukraine President Poroshenko. Russian President Putin also asked the Russian house of parliament to cancel approval granted Mar 1 to use force in Ukraine. Asian stocks closed mostly higher: Japan +0.05%, Hong Kong +0.33%, China +0.50%, Taiwan +0.19%, Australia -0.38%, Singapore +0.14%, South Korea +1.16%, India +1.35%. Commodity prices are mixed. Aug crude oil (CLQ14 +0.13%) is up +0.07%. Aug gasoline (RBQ14 +0.14%) is up +0.07%. Aug gold (GCQ14 +0.52%) is up +0.52% at a 2-1/4 month high. July copper (HGN14 +0.03%) is up +0.13%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mixed with grains lower as U.S. crop conditions continue to be favorable, while livestock prices are higher after the USDA's Cold Storage report, released after the markets closed Monday, signaled lower beef and pork supplies. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.06%) is down -0.06%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.11%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.04%. Sep T-note prices (ZNU14 +0.14%) are up +6.5 ticks.
The German Jun IFO business climate fell -0.7 to 109.7, a bigger decline than expectations of -0.1 to 110.3 and the lowest in 6 months. The Jun IFO current assessment was unchanged at 114.8, weaker than expectations of +0.2 to 115.0. The Jun IFO expectations fell -1.4 to 104.8, a bigger decline than expectations of -0.2 to 106.0 and the lowest in 8 months.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Today’s April FHFA home price index is expected to show a solid gain of +0.5% m/m, adding to the +0.7% increase seen in March. Meanwhile, today’s April Case-Shiller composite-20 home price index is expected to show an increase of +0.80% m/m, adding to March’s sharp increase of +1.24% m/m. Today’s May new home sales report is expected to show an increase of +1.6% to 440,000, adding to the +6.4% increase to 433,000 seen in April. Today’s June U.S. consumer confidence index from the Conference Board is expected to show an increase of +0.5 points to 83.5, adding to the +1.3 point increase to 83.0 seen in May. Today’s June Richmond Fed manufacturing index is expected to show a -1 point decline to 6 following the May report of unchanged at 7.
There are two of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: Walgreen (consensus $0.94), Carnival (0.02). Equity conferences this week include: Smart Grid World Conference 2014 on Tue, Global Hunter Securities LLC Energy Conference on Tue-Wed, Oppenheimer Consumer Conference on Tue-Wed, Mobile Pharma Biztech 2014 on Wed-Thu.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Walgreen (WAG -1.09%) reported Q3 EPS of 91 cents, below consensus of 94 cents.
IDEXX (IDXX +0.52%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Canaccord.
O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY -0.77%) was initiated with an 'Overweight' at Morgan Stanley with a price target of $175.
Dr Pepper Snapple (DPS -1.18%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Citigroup.
ITG (ITG -3.05%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Overweight' at JPMorgan Chase.
National Retail Properties (NNN -0.85%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at BofA/Merrill Lynch.
Wells Fargo downgraded IntercontinentalExchange (ICE +1.71%) to 'Market Perform' from 'Outperform.'
Aviva (AV -0.23%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at UBS.
Cray (CRAY -0.39%) announced that it has been awarded a $54 million contract to provide the Korea Meteorological Administration with supercomputers.
Dean Foods (DF -0.17%) fell over 7% in after-hours trading after Dow Jones reported that the company received subpoenas from federal authorities in an insider trading probe involving activist investor Carl Icahn.
SAB Capital Advisors reported a 9.4% passive stake in Famous Dave's (DAVE -2.80%) .
Priceline reported a 5.1% stake in OpenTable (OPEN +0.35%) .
Micron (MU -1.85%) reported Q3 EPS of 79 cents, well above consensus of 70 cents.

MARKET COMMENTS

Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 -0.18%) this morning are down -3.50 points (-0.18%). The S&P 500 index on Monday closed little changed as the ongoing crisis in Iraq prompted long liquidation pressure. Losses were muted on bullish factors that included (1) reduced Chinese economic concerns after the Jun China HSBC flash manufacturing PMI rose +1.4 to 50.8, stronger than expectations of +0.3 to 49.7 and the fastest rate of expansion in 7 months, and (2) the +4.9% increase in U.S. May existing home sales to 4.89 million, better than expectations of +1.9% to 4.74 million and the highest level in 7 months. Closes: S&P 500 +0.17%, Dow Jones +0.15%, Nasdaq +0.05%.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU14 +0.14%) this morning are up +6.5 ticks. Sep 10-year T-note futures prices on Monday closed little changed. A supportive factor for T-notes was carry-over support from a rally in German bunds after ECB President Draghi signaled that interest rates will probably remain low for at least another 2-1/2 years when he said “We have prolonged banks’ access to unlimited liquidity up to the end of 2016. That is a signal.” T-notes fell back from their best levels after May existing home sales rose more than expected to the highest level in 7 months. Closes: TYU4 -2.50, FVU4 -1.75.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.06%) this morning is down -0.047 (-0.06%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0015 (+0.11%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.04 (-0.04%). The dollar index on Monday closed lower on carry-over bearish sentiment toward the dollar after Fed Chair Yellen last Wednesday reiterated that the Fed remains committed to low interest rates for a “considerable time.” EUR/USD fell back after ECB President Draghi said that the recovery “is still weak and unevenly distributed across the Eurozone” and that broad-based asset purchases will be “the answer” if the inflation outlook weakens further. Closes: Dollar Index -0.100 (-0.12%), EUR/USD +0.0004 (+0.03%), USD/JPY -0.107 (-0.10%).
Aug WTI crude oil (CLQ14 +0.13%) this morning is up +7 cents (+0.07%). Aug gasoline (RBQ14 +0.14%) is up +0.0022 (+0.07%). Aug crude and gasoline prices on Monday closed lower. The main bearish factor for oil prices was reduced concerns that Iraqi militants will take over the oil-producing regions of Iraq after government forces regained Iraq’s border crossings with Jordan and Syria. Losses were limited on signs of economic strength in China, the world’s second-largest crude oil consumer, after a gauge of Chinese manufacturing activity expanded at the fastest pace in 7 months. Closes: CLQ4 -0.71 (-0.66%) RBQ4 -0.0152 (-0.49%).

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR06/24/2014

US	0805 ET	Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser speaks to the Economic Club of New York on the economic outlook and monetary policy.
	0900 ET	Apr FHFA house price index expected +0.5% m/m, Mar +0.7% m/m.
	0900 ET	Apr S&P/CaseShiller composite-20 home price index expected +0.80% m/m and +11.50% y/y, Mar +1.24% m/m and +12.37% y/y.
	1000 ET	U.S. Jun consumer confidence (Conference Board) expected +0.5 to 83.5, May +1.3 to 83.0.
	1000 ET	Jun Richmond Fed manufacturing index expected unch at 7, May unch at 7.
	1000 ET	May new home sales expected +1.4% to 440,000, Apr +6.4% to 433,000.
	1130 ET	Treasury auctions $13 billion 2-year floating rate notes.
	1300 ET	Treasury auctions $30 billion 2-year T-notes.
GER	0400 ET	German Jun IFO business climate expected -0.1 to 110.3, May 110.4. Jun IFO current assessment expected +0.2 to 115.0, May 114.8. Jun IFO expectations expected -0.2 to 106.0, May 106.2.
JPN	1950 ET	Japan May corporate service price index expected +3.3% y/y, Apr +3.4% y/y.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR06/24/2014

Company Name	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Aon PLC	AON US	3:00	Annual General Meeting	Y 2014
Walgreen Co	WAG US	7:30	Q3 2014 Earnings Release	Q3 2014	0.935
Walgreen Co	WAG US	8:30	Q3 2014 Earnings Call	Q3 2014
NetApp Inc	NTAP US	8:30	Analyst Day	Y 2014
Validus Holdings Ltd	VR US	8:30	Acquisition of Western World Insurance Group, Inc by Validus Holdings Ltd Call
Carnival Corp	CCL US	10:00	Q2 2014 Earnings Call	Q2 2014
Carnival Corp	CCL US		Q2 2014 Earnings Release	Q2 2014	0.023
Kennametal Inc	KMT US		Financial Community Meeting - Day 2	Y 2014
Questar Corp	STR US		Roadshow - Day 2	Y 2014
AT&T Inc	T US		AT&T Inc. - DirectTV Merger Testify Hearing
Nu Skin Enterprises Inc	NUS US		Annual General Meeting
GameStop Corp	GME US		Annual General Meeting
DIRECTV	DTV US		AT&T Inc. - DirectTV Merger Testify Hearing