Tuesday, September 30, 2014

BARCHART MORNING CALL 9/30

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 +0.34%) this morning are up +0.30% and European stocks are up +0.94% as slower-than-expected Eurozone inflation bolstered speculation the ECB will boost stimulus. Other positives for European stocks included the upward revision to UK Q2 GDP and the surge in German Aug retail sales by the most in 3 years. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan -0.84%, Hong Kong -1.28%, China +0.13%, Taiwan +0.07%, Australia +0.54%, Singapore -0.39%, South Korea -0.46%, India +0.13%. Japanese stocks fell after Japan Aug industrial output unexpectedly declined, while Chinese shares gained after the PBOC loosened property policies for the first time since 2008 in an attempt to boost the housing market. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Stock Index tumbled to a 3-month low as pro-democracy protesters continued to block roads in central Hong Kong in the fifth day of protests. Commodity prices are mixed. Nov crude oil (CLX14 -0.12%) is down -0.04%. Nov gasoline (RBX14 +0.05%) is up +0.12%. Dec gold (GCZ14 -1.07%) is down -0.86%. Dec copper (HGZ14 -1.19%) is down -0.67%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.69%) is up +0.61% at a 4-1/4 year high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.88% at a 2-year low as weak Eurozone inflation data fuels speculation the ECB may expand stimulus to avert deflation. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.22%. Dec T-note prices (ZNZ14 -0.14%) are down -8 ticks.
The Eurozone Sep CPI estimate rose +0.3% y/y, right on expectations and the slowest pace of increase in 4-3/4 years. Sep core CPI rose +0.7% y/y, less than expectations of +0.9% y/y and matched the slowest pace of increase since the data series began in 1997.
The Eurozone Aug unemployment rate remained unchanged at 11.5%, right on expectations and the lowest in 2 years.
The German Sep unemployment change unexpectedly rose +12,000, more than expectations of -2,000. The Sep unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.7%, right on expectations and the lowest since data for a reunified Germany began in 1991.
German Aug retail sales rose +2.5% m/m, five times stronger than expectations of +0.5% m/m and the biggest increase in 3 years. On an annual basis, Aug retail sales rise +0.1% y/y, less than expectations of +0.3% y/y.
The China Sep HSBC manufacturing PMI was revised lower to 50.2 from the originally reported 50.5.
Japan Aug industrial production fell -1.5% m/m and -2.9% y/y, much weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m and -1.1% y/y with the -2.9% y/y fall the largest year-over-year decline in 14 months.
Japan Aug retail sales rose +1.9% m/m and +1.2% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.5% m/m and +0.1% y/y.
The Japan Aug jobless rate unexpectedly fell -0.3 to 3.5%, better than expectations of no change at 3.8% and matched the May low as the lowest in 17 years. The Aug job-to-applicant ratio was unch at 1.10, right on expectations and matched the highest in 25 years.
UK Sep GfK consumer confidence fell -2 to -1, a bigger decline than expectations of -1 to 0.
UK Sep nationwide house prices fell -0.2% m/m and rose +9.4% y/y, less than expectations of +0.5% m/m and +10.4% y/y.
UK Q2 GDP was revised higher to +0.9% q/q from the previously reported +0.8% q/q, but remained unchanged at +3.2% y/y.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today’s Sep U.S. consumer confidence index from the Conference Board is expected to show a small increase of +0.1 to 92.5, which would be a new 6-3/4 year high. Today’s July CaseShiller Composite-20 home price index is expected to show a -0.1 m/m decline, adding to the -0.3% decline in May and the -0.2% decline seen in June. Today’s Sep Chicago PMI index is expected to show a -2.3 point decline to 62.0, giving back a small part of the +11.7 point surge to 64.3 seen in August. There is one of the Russell 1000 companies that reports earnings today: Walgreen ($0.74).
Equity conferences this week include: Oracle OpenWorld 2014 on Mon-Wed, Johnson Rice Energy Conference on Mon-Tue, Bloomberg Canadian Fixed Income Conference on Tue, SACHS ASSOCIATES - Biotech in Europe Forum For Global Partnering & Investment on Tue, Deutsche Bank Leveraged Finance Conference on Tue, Leerink Partners Rare Disease Roundtable on Tue, JMP Securities Financial Services & Real Estate Conference on Tue, TAG Fall Consumer Conference on Tue, Unconventional Resources Conference Canada 2014 on Wed, and Paris Motor Show 2014-Press Days on Thu.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
eBay (EBAY -0.51%) jumped over 10% in pre-market trading after it said it will separate eBay and PayPal into independent publicly traded companies in 2015.
Toyota (TM -0.95%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Neutral' at JPMorgan Chase.
Alcoa (AA -1.61%) and Century Aluminum (CENX -2.89%) were both upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at BofA/Merrill.
Kellogg (K +0.10%) was downgraded to 'Underweight' from 'Equal Weight' at Morgan Stanley.
Teekay (TK +0.72%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Deutsche Bank with a price target of $90.
Walgreen (WAG -0.96%) reported Q4 EPS of 74 cents, right on consensus.
Priceline reported a 5.84% stake in Ctrip.com (CTRP -3.48%) .
Greenlight capital reported a 37.5% stake in Einstein Noah (BAGL +50.49%) .
Lone Pine Capital reported a 5.3% passive stake in Tiffany (TIF -0.79%) .
Cintas (CTAS -0.48%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 78 cents, higher than consensus 75 cents, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2015 EPS view to $3.20-$3.29 from $3.06-$3.15, higher than consensus of $3.09.
Raytheon (RTN -0.62%) and Lockheed Martin (LMT -0.12%) were both upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Stifel.
SYNNEX (SNX +1.20%) reported Q3 EPS of $1.59, better than consensus of $1.48.
Ford (F -7.47%) says it won't achieve 2014 profit goals, sees pre-tax profit of $6 billion, below ealier projection of $7 billion to $8 billion.
MARKET COMMENTS
Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 +0.34%) this morning are up +6.00 points (+0.30%). The S&P 500 index on Monday fell to a 6-week low and closed lower: S&P 500 -0.25%, Dow Jones -0.25%, Nasdaq -0.16%. Bearish factors included (1) increased geopolitical concerns due to civil unrest in Hong Kong after pro-democracy protesters clashed with police, and (2) the -1.0% m/m and -4.1% y/y decline in U.S. Aug pending home sales, weaker than expectations of -0.5% m/m and -1.4% y/y. Stocks rebounded upward from their worst levels after U.S. Aug personal spending rose +0.5%, better than expectations of +0.4%.
Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ14 -0.14%) this morning are down -8 ticks. Dec 10-year T-note futures prices on Monday closed higher. Bullish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected decline in Aug pending home sales, and (2) comments from Chicago Fed President Evans suggesting that he wants to maintain the Fed’s extraordinary monetary policy when he said the labor market recovery is “far from complete” and it’s still premature “to return to business as usual” with traditional monetary policy. Closes: TYZ4 +10.50, FVZ4 +4.50.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.69%) this morning is up +0.518 (+0.61%) at a new 4-1/4 year high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0111 (-0.88%) at a 2-year low and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.24 (+0.22%). The dollar index on Monday retreated from a fresh 4-year high and closed lower. EUR/USD recovered from a 1-3/4 year low and closed higher after German Sep CPI rose +0.8% y/y, higher than expectations of +0.7% y/y, which reduces pressure on the ECB to expand stimulus. Dollar losses were limited after USD/JPY rose to a 6-year high on the divergent monetary policies between the Fed and BOJ. Closes: Dollar index -0.049 (-0.06%), EUR/USD +0.0003 (+0.03%), USD/JPY +0.245 (+0.22%).
Nov WTI crude oil (CLX14 -0.12%) this morning is down -4 cents (-0.04%) and Nov gasoline (RBX14 +0.05%) is up +0.0030 (+0.12%). Nov crude and gasoline prices on Monday closed higher with Nov crude at a 3-week high: CLX4 +1.03 (+1.10%), RBXX4 +0.0261 (+1.05%). Bullish factors included (1) the weaker dollar, and (2) gasoline supply concerns as Irving Oil’s 146,000 bpd St. John, New Brunswick, refinery remains closed for unplanned repairs and as Bloomberg data shows refineries in Texas remain off line for maintenance or unplanned repairs at the highest rate in 3 years.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR09/30/2014
US0900 ETSep Milwaukee ISM expected +1.37 to 61.00, Aug -4.24 to 59.63.
0900 ETJul S&P/CaseShiller composite-20 home price index expected -0.10 m/m and +7.35% y/y, Jun -0.20% m/m and +8.07% y/y.
0945 ETSep Chicago PMI expected -2.3 to 62.0, Aug +11.7 to 64.3.
1000 ETSep consumer confidence (Conference Board) expected +0.1 to 92.5, Aug +2.1 to 92.4.
1045 ETFed Governor Jerome Powell speaks on a panel discussion of Government Debt Management at the Zero Lower Bound at the Brookings Institute.
1200 ETUSDA Q3 Quarterly Grain Stocks.
JPN0000 ETJapan Aug vehicle production, Jul -1.7% y/y.
0100 ETJapan Aug housing starts expected -14.2% y/y to 837,000, Jul -14.1% y/y to 839,000.
1950 ETJapan Q3 Tankan large manufacturing business conditions expected 10, Q2 was 12.
2135 ETRevised Japan Sep Markit/JMMA manufacturing PMI.
UK0200 ETUK Sep nationwide house prices expected +0.5% m/m and +10.4% y/y, Aug +0.8% m/m and +11.0% y/y.
0430 ETRevised UK Q2 GDP, previous +0.8% q/q and +3.2% y/y.
0430 ETUK Jul index of services expected +0.3% m/m and +1.0% 3-mo/3-mo, Jun +0.3% m/m and +1.0% 3-mo/3-mo.
0430 ETUK Sep Lloyds business barometer, Aug 47.
GER0200 ETGerman Aug retail sales expected +0.5% m/m and +0.3% y/y, Jul -1.1% m/m and +1.0% y/y.
0355 ETGerman Sep unemployment change expected -2,000, Aug +2,000. Sep unemployment rate expected unch at 6.7%.
EUR0500 ETEurozone Sep CPI estimate expected +0.3% y/y, Aug +0.3% y/y. Sep core CPI expected +0.9% y/y, Aug +0.9% y/y.
0500 ETEurozone Aug unemployment rate expected unch at 11.5%.
CHI2100 ETChina Sep manufacturing PMI expected -0.1 to 51.0, Aug -0.6 to 51.1.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR09/30/2014
Company NameTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Walgreen CoWAG US7:30Q4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.74
Moody's CorpMCO US8:00Investor DayY 2014
Walgreen CoWAG US8:30Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Intuit IncINTU US11:30Investor DayY 2014
Microsoft CorpMSFT US13:00Microsoft Analyst Update
Posted by Jim Van Meerten at
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