BARCHART MORNING CALL 9/30

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Tuesday, September 30th, 2014View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 +0.34%) this morning are up +0.30% and European stocks are up +0.94% as slower-than-expected Eurozone inflation bolstered speculation the ECB will boost stimulus. Other positives for European stocks included the upward revision to UK Q2 GDP and the surge in German Aug retail sales by the most in 3 years. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan -0.84%, Hong Kong -1.28%, China +0.13%, Taiwan +0.07%, Australia +0.54%, Singapore -0.39%, South Korea -0.46%, India +0.13%. Japanese stocks fell after Japan Aug industrial output unexpectedly declined, while Chinese shares gained after the PBOC loosened property policies for the first time since 2008 in an attempt to boost the housing market. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Stock Index tumbled to a 3-month low as pro-democracy protesters continued to block roads in central Hong Kong in the fifth day of protests. Commodity prices are mixed. Nov crude oil (CLX14 -0.12%) is down -0.04%. Nov gasoline (RBX14 +0.05%) is up +0.12%. Dec gold (GCZ14 -1.07%) is down -0.86%. Dec copper (HGZ14 -1.19%) is down -0.67%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.69%) is up +0.61% at a 4-1/4 year high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.88% at a 2-year low as weak Eurozone inflation data fuels speculation the ECB may expand stimulus to avert deflation. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.22%. Dec T-note prices (ZNZ14 -0.14%) are down -8 ticks.
The Eurozone Sep CPI estimate rose +0.3% y/y, right on expectations and the slowest pace of increase in 4-3/4 years. Sep core CPI rose +0.7% y/y, less than expectations of +0.9% y/y and matched the slowest pace of increase since the data series began in 1997.
The Eurozone Aug unemployment rate remained unchanged at 11.5%, right on expectations and the lowest in 2 years.
The German Sep unemployment change unexpectedly rose +12,000, more than expectations of -2,000. The Sep unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.7%, right on expectations and the lowest since data for a reunified Germany began in 1991.
German Aug retail sales rose +2.5% m/m, five times stronger than expectations of +0.5% m/m and the biggest increase in 3 years. On an annual basis, Aug retail sales rise +0.1% y/y, less than expectations of +0.3% y/y.
The China Sep HSBC manufacturing PMI was revised lower to 50.2 from the originally reported 50.5.
Japan Aug industrial production fell -1.5% m/m and -2.9% y/y, much weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m and -1.1% y/y with the -2.9% y/y fall the largest year-over-year decline in 14 months.
Japan Aug retail sales rose +1.9% m/m and +1.2% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.5% m/m and +0.1% y/y.
The Japan Aug jobless rate unexpectedly fell -0.3 to 3.5%, better than expectations of no change at 3.8% and matched the May low as the lowest in 17 years. The Aug job-to-applicant ratio was unch at 1.10, right on expectations and matched the highest in 25 years.
UK Sep GfK consumer confidence fell -2 to -1, a bigger decline than expectations of -1 to 0.
UK Sep nationwide house prices fell -0.2% m/m and rose +9.4% y/y, less than expectations of +0.5% m/m and +10.4% y/y.
UK Q2 GDP was revised higher to +0.9% q/q from the previously reported +0.8% q/q, but remained unchanged at +3.2% y/y.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Today’s Sep U.S. consumer confidence index from the Conference Board is expected to show a small increase of +0.1 to 92.5, which would be a new 6-3/4 year high. Today’s July CaseShiller Composite-20 home price index is expected to show a -0.1 m/m decline, adding to the -0.3% decline in May and the -0.2% decline seen in June. Today’s Sep Chicago PMI index is expected to show a -2.3 point decline to 62.0, giving back a small part of the +11.7 point surge to 64.3 seen in August. There is one of the Russell 1000 companies that reports earnings today: Walgreen ($0.74).
Equity conferences this week include: Oracle OpenWorld 2014 on Mon-Wed, Johnson Rice Energy Conference on Mon-Tue, Bloomberg Canadian Fixed Income Conference on Tue, SACHS ASSOCIATES - Biotech in Europe Forum For Global Partnering & Investment on Tue, Deutsche Bank Leveraged Finance Conference on Tue, Leerink Partners Rare Disease Roundtable on Tue, JMP Securities Financial Services & Real Estate Conference on Tue, TAG Fall Consumer Conference on Tue, Unconventional Resources Conference Canada 2014 on Wed, and Paris Motor Show 2014-Press Days on Thu.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

eBay (EBAY -0.51%) jumped over 10% in pre-market trading after it said it will separate eBay and PayPal into independent publicly traded companies in 2015.
Toyota (TM -0.95%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Neutral' at JPMorgan Chase.
Alcoa (AA -1.61%) and Century Aluminum (CENX -2.89%) were both upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at BofA/Merrill.
Kellogg (K +0.10%) was downgraded to 'Underweight' from 'Equal Weight' at Morgan Stanley.
Teekay (TK +0.72%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Deutsche Bank with a price target of $90.
Walgreen (WAG -0.96%) reported Q4 EPS of 74 cents, right on consensus.
Priceline reported a 5.84% stake in Ctrip.com (CTRP -3.48%) .
Greenlight capital reported a 37.5% stake in Einstein Noah (BAGL +50.49%) .
Lone Pine Capital reported a 5.3% passive stake in Tiffany (TIF -0.79%) .
Cintas (CTAS -0.48%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 78 cents, higher than consensus 75 cents, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2015 EPS view to $3.20-$3.29 from $3.06-$3.15, higher than consensus of $3.09.
Raytheon (RTN -0.62%) and Lockheed Martin (LMT -0.12%) were both upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Stifel.
SYNNEX (SNX +1.20%) reported Q3 EPS of $1.59, better than consensus of $1.48.
Ford (F -7.47%) says it won't achieve 2014 profit goals, sees pre-tax profit of $6 billion, below ealier projection of $7 billion to $8 billion.

MARKET COMMENTS

Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 +0.34%) this morning are up +6.00 points (+0.30%). The S&P 500 index on Monday fell to a 6-week low and closed lower: S&P 500 -0.25%, Dow Jones -0.25%, Nasdaq -0.16%. Bearish factors included (1) increased geopolitical concerns due to civil unrest in Hong Kong after pro-democracy protesters clashed with police, and (2) the -1.0% m/m and -4.1% y/y decline in U.S. Aug pending home sales, weaker than expectations of -0.5% m/m and -1.4% y/y. Stocks rebounded upward from their worst levels after U.S. Aug personal spending rose +0.5%, better than expectations of +0.4%.
Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ14 -0.14%) this morning are down -8 ticks. Dec 10-year T-note futures prices on Monday closed higher. Bullish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected decline in Aug pending home sales, and (2) comments from Chicago Fed President Evans suggesting that he wants to maintain the Fed’s extraordinary monetary policy when he said the labor market recovery is “far from complete” and it’s still premature “to return to business as usual” with traditional monetary policy. Closes: TYZ4 +10.50, FVZ4 +4.50.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.69%) this morning is up +0.518 (+0.61%) at a new 4-1/4 year high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0111 (-0.88%) at a 2-year low and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.24 (+0.22%). The dollar index on Monday retreated from a fresh 4-year high and closed lower. EUR/USD recovered from a 1-3/4 year low and closed higher after German Sep CPI rose +0.8% y/y, higher than expectations of +0.7% y/y, which reduces pressure on the ECB to expand stimulus. Dollar losses were limited after USD/JPY rose to a 6-year high on the divergent monetary policies between the Fed and BOJ. Closes: Dollar index -0.049 (-0.06%), EUR/USD +0.0003 (+0.03%), USD/JPY +0.245 (+0.22%).
Nov WTI crude oil (CLX14 -0.12%) this morning is down -4 cents (-0.04%) and Nov gasoline (RBX14 +0.05%) is up +0.0030 (+0.12%). Nov crude and gasoline prices on Monday closed higher with Nov crude at a 3-week high: CLX4 +1.03 (+1.10%), RBXX4 +0.0261 (+1.05%). Bullish factors included (1) the weaker dollar, and (2) gasoline supply concerns as Irving Oil’s 146,000 bpd St. John, New Brunswick, refinery remains closed for unplanned repairs and as Bloomberg data shows refineries in Texas remain off line for maintenance or unplanned repairs at the highest rate in 3 years.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR09/30/2014

US	0900 ET	Sep Milwaukee ISM expected +1.37 to 61.00, Aug -4.24 to 59.63.
	0900 ET	Jul S&P/CaseShiller composite-20 home price index expected -0.10 m/m and +7.35% y/y, Jun -0.20% m/m and +8.07% y/y.
	0945 ET	Sep Chicago PMI expected -2.3 to 62.0, Aug +11.7 to 64.3.
	1000 ET	Sep consumer confidence (Conference Board) expected +0.1 to 92.5, Aug +2.1 to 92.4.
	1045 ET	Fed Governor Jerome Powell speaks on a panel discussion of Government Debt Management at the Zero Lower Bound at the Brookings Institute.
	1200 ET	USDA Q3 Quarterly Grain Stocks.
JPN	0000 ET	Japan Aug vehicle production, Jul -1.7% y/y.
	0100 ET	Japan Aug housing starts expected -14.2% y/y to 837,000, Jul -14.1% y/y to 839,000.
	1950 ET	Japan Q3 Tankan large manufacturing business conditions expected 10, Q2 was 12.
	2135 ET	Revised Japan Sep Markit/JMMA manufacturing PMI.
UK	0200 ET	UK Sep nationwide house prices expected +0.5% m/m and +10.4% y/y, Aug +0.8% m/m and +11.0% y/y.
	0430 ET	Revised UK Q2 GDP, previous +0.8% q/q and +3.2% y/y.
	0430 ET	UK Jul index of services expected +0.3% m/m and +1.0% 3-mo/3-mo, Jun +0.3% m/m and +1.0% 3-mo/3-mo.
	0430 ET	UK Sep Lloyds business barometer, Aug 47.
GER	0200 ET	German Aug retail sales expected +0.5% m/m and +0.3% y/y, Jul -1.1% m/m and +1.0% y/y.
	0355 ET	German Sep unemployment change expected -2,000, Aug +2,000. Sep unemployment rate expected unch at 6.7%.
EUR	0500 ET	Eurozone Sep CPI estimate expected +0.3% y/y, Aug +0.3% y/y. Sep core CPI expected +0.9% y/y, Aug +0.9% y/y.
	0500 ET	Eurozone Aug unemployment rate expected unch at 11.5%.
CHI	2100 ET	China Sep manufacturing PMI expected -0.1 to 51.0, Aug -0.6 to 51.1.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR09/30/2014

Company Name	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Walgreen Co	WAG US	7:30	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	0.74
Moody's Corp	MCO US	8:00	Investor Day	Y 2014
Walgreen Co	WAG US	8:30	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
Intuit Inc	INTU US	11:30	Investor Day	Y 2014
Microsoft Corp	MSFT US	13:00	Microsoft Analyst Update

BARCHART MORNING CALL 2/25

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Tuesday, February 25th, 2014View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

March E-mini S&Ps (ESH14 -0.23%) this morning are down -0.18% and European stocks are down -0.39% on emerging-market concerns after Ukraine's currency slumped after the country delayed a vote on selecting a government until Thursday. Ukraine is struggling to keep its currency, the hryvnia, from collapsing, which could force banks and companies into default that owe money in foreign currencies. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +1,44%, Hong Kong -0.32%, China -2.56%, Taiwan +0.18%, Australia -0.12%, Singapore -0.07%, South Korea +0.88%, India +0.20%. The Shanghai Stock Index fell to a 2-week low amid speculation a weaker property market and a falling currency will undercut corporate earnings. China's yuan dropped to a 6-month low of 6.1310 against the dollar, which boosts the cost of overseas borrowing by Chinese companies at the same time as lenders face tighter lending restrictions in China after China's Industrial Bank on Monday said it will delay loans for property projects until the end of March. Commodity prices are mostly lower. Apr crude oil (CLJ14 -0.89%) is down -0.89%. Apr gasoline (RBJ14 -0.15%) is down -0.18%. Apr gold (GCJ14 -0.26%) is down -0.22%. March copper (HGH14 -0.90%) is down -0.72%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.12%) is down -0.08%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD)is up +0.10%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.17%. March T-note prices (ZNH14 +0.06%) are up +3.5 ticks.
UK Feb CBI reported sales jumped to 37 from 14 in Dec, a much bigger increase than expectations of 15 and the highest in 1-1/2 years.
German Q4 GDP was left unrevised at +0.4% q/q and +1.4% y/y. Q4 private consumption was unrevised at -0.1% q/q, but Q4 government spending was revised lower to unch from +0.2%. Q4 exports were revised upward to +2.6% q/q from +1.7% q/q and Q4 imports were revised lower to +0.6% from +1.3% q/q.
The Japan Jan corporate service price index rose +0.8% y/y, a smaller increase than expectations of +1.2% y/y, while Dec was revised lower to +1.1% y/y from the originally reported +1.3% y/y.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

U.S. home prices are expected to continue climbing at a relatively strong pace. Today’s Dec FHFA house price index is expected to show an increase of +0.3% m/m after Nov’s report of +0.1%. Meanwhile, today’s Dec S&P/CaseShiller composite-20 home price index is expected to show a strong increase of +0.6% m/m and +13.4% y/y after Nov’s report of +0.9% m/m and +13.7% y/y. Today’s Feb U.S. consumer confidence index from the Conference Board is expected to show a -0.7 point decline to 80.0, reversing part of the +3.2 point increase to 80.7 seen in January. Today’s Feb Richmond Fed manufacturing index is expected to show a -7 point decline to 5, adding to the -1 point decline to 12 seen in January. The Treasury today will sell $32 billion in 2-year T-notes, kicking off this week’s T-note package. The Treasury will then sell $35 billion in 5-year T-notes and $13 billion of 2-year floating rate notes on Wednesday, and $29 billion of 7-year T-notes on Thursday.
There are 9 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today: American Tower (consensus $0.96), FirstEnergy (0.70), Home Depot (0.71), Macy's (2.17), Edison International (0.68), First Solar (1.02), QEP Resources (0.40), Range Resources (0.39), Leucadia National Corp. Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: BMO Capital Markets Global Metals & Mining Conference on Mon-Tue, JP Morgan Emerging Markets Corporate Conference on Mon-Tue, HIMSS Conference on Mon-Tue, Morgan Stanley Houston Energy Summit on Tue, J. P. Morgan Global High Yield & Leveraged Finance Conference on Mon-Wed, RBC Capital Markets Healthcare Conference on Mon-Wed, 10th Regulatory and Compliance Congress on Tue-Wed, Robert W. Baird Business Solutions Conference Tue-Wed, Crude By Rail 2014 on Tue-Wed, Super Return International 2014 on Tue-Wed, Gabelli & Co Inc Industrial Flow & Infrastructure Conference on Wed, RBC Capital Markets Global Health Care Conference on Wed, Alembic Global Advisors Fourth Annual Global Chemical Conference on Wed, Keefe, Bruyette, & Woods Boston Bank Conference on Wed, KeyBanc Capital Markets Consumer Conference on Wed, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Agriculture Conference on Wed-Thu, Simmons Energy Conference on Thu, and Stifel Industrials Conference on Thu.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

HSBC (HSBC -2.37%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Overweight' at JPMorgan.
Domino's Pizza (DPZ +1.97%) reported Q4 EPS of 78 cents, better than consensus of 76 cents.
Verizon (VZ -2.20%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Neutral' at JPMorgan.
Morgan Stanley reiterates its 'Overweight' rating on Tesla (TSLA +3.84%) and raised its price target on the stock to $320 from $153.
American Tower (AMT -1.27%) reported Q4 EPS of 83 cents, weaker than consensus of 96 cents.
Home Depot (HD +0.17%) reported Q4 EPS of 73 cents, higher than consensus of 71 cents.
Perry Ellis (PERY +2.69%) slumped 20% in after-hours trading after it lowered guidance on fiscal 2014 adjusted EPS to 34 cents-37 cents, well below consensus of 97 cents, and said earnings were undercut by inclement weather across major parts of the country and a challenging consumer spending environment.
PayPal, a unit of eBay (EBAY +3.13%) , announced on a company blog that it will be the first global payments company to support the mobile fingerprint authentication technology on Samsung's (SSNLF unch) latest Samsung Galaxy S5.
Chemtura (CHMT +0.36%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 16 cents, higher than consensus of 11 cents.
EOG Resources (EOG +1.35%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $2.00, better than consensus of $1.94.
Minerals Technologies (MTX -0.34%) increased its offer to acquire AMCOL ({=ACO to $42.50 per share.
Einstein Noah Restaurant Group (BAGL -1.27%) announced that effective immediately, the Board of Directors has appointed Michael Arthur as Interim Chief Executive Officer and President following the resignation of Jeff O’Neill.
Tutor Perini (TPC +2.36%) reported Q4 EPS of 68 cents, stronger than consensus of 61 cents.
Stifel Financial (SF +1.52%) reported Q4 EPS of 79 cents, higher than consensus of 68 cents.
Frontier Communications (FTR -0.86%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 7 cents, better than consensus of 6 cents.

MARKET COMMENTS

Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH14 -0.23%) this morning are down -3.25 points (-0.18%). The S&P 500 on Monday rallied to a fresh all-time high and closed higher. Bullish factors for stocks included (1) positive carry-over from a rally in European equities after the German Feb IFO business climate unexpectedly rose +0.7 to a 2-1/2 year high of 111.3, higher than expectations of a -0.1 point decline to 110.5, and (2) a rally in health insurers after the U.S. Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services said health insurers face a payment cut of only about 3.55% next year, less than industry expectations of 6% to 7%. Closes: S&P 500 +0.62%, Dow Jones +0.64%, Nasdaq 100 +0.63%.
Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH14 +0.06%) this morning are up +3.5 ticks. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices on Monday closed lower on negative carry-over from a drop in German bunds after the German Feb IFO business climate unexpectedly rose to a 2-1/2 year high. T-notes also moved lower on reduced safe-haven demand after the S&P 500 climbed to a record high. Closes: TYH4 -4.50, FVH4 -2.00.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.12%) this morning is down -0.066 (-0.08%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0014 (+0.10%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.17 (-0.17%). The dollar index on Monday closed lower on reduced safe haven demand after the S&P 500 rose to a record high. EUR/USD moved higher after the German Feb IFO business climate unexpectedly rose +0.7 to a 2-1/2 year high of 111.3, but fell back after ECB President Draghi reiterated the ECB is ready to add to stimulus if the outlook for prices deteriorates and after ECB Executive Board member Praet said that “weakness in price development is extending to the medium term.” Closes: Dollar index -0.038 (-0.05%), EUR/USD -0.00014 (-0.01%), USD/JPY unch.
Apr WTI crude oil (CLJ14 -0.89%) this morning is down -91 cents (-0.89%) and Apr gasoline (RBJ14 -0.15%) is down -0.0053 (-0.18%). Apr crude and gasoline prices Monday settled higher. Bullish factors for crude included (1) weakness in the dollar, (2) the unexpected increase in German Feb IFO business confidence to a 2-1/2 year high, which is positive for the global economic outlook and energy demand, and (3) expectations for crude supplies to fall for a fourth week at Cushing, OK, the delivery point for WTI futures, when weekly EIA inventory data is released on Wed. Closes: CLJ4 +0.62 (+0.61%), RBJ4 +0.0055 (+0.18%).

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR02/25/2014

US	0900 ET	Dec FHFA house price index expected +0.3% m/m, Nov +0.1% m/m. Q4 house price purchase index expected +1.00% q/q, Q3 +1.96% q/q.
	0900 ET	Dec S&P/CaseShiller composite-20 home price index expected +0.6% m/m and +13.40% y/y, Nov +0.88% m/m and +13.71% y/y. Q4 home price index, Q3 +11.18% y/y.
	1000 ET	U.S. Feb consumer confidence (Conference Board) expected -0.7 to 80.0, Jan +3.2 to 80.7.
	1000 ET	Feb Richmond Fed manufacturing index expected -7 to 5, Jan -1 to 12.
	1010 ET	Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo speaks at the annual NABE conference on a panel titled A View from the Fed.
	1300 ET	Treasury auctions $32 billion 2-year T-notes.
GER	0200 ET	Revised German Q4 GDP, previous +0.4% q/q and +1.4% y/y.
UK	0600 ET	UK Feb CBI reported sales expected +1 to 15, Jan 14.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR02/25/2014

Company Name	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
American Tower Corp	AMT US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2013 Earnings Release	Q4 2013	0.962
FirstEnergy Corp	FE US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2013 Earnings Release	Q4 2013	0.696
Home Depot Inc/The	HD US	6:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	0.713
Quanta Services Inc	PWR US	8:00	Investor Day	Y 2014
Macy's Inc	M US	8:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	2.172
Edison International	EIX US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2013 Earnings Release	Q4 2013	0.678
First Solar Inc	FSLR US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2013 Earnings Release	Q4 2013	1.021
QEP Resources Inc	QEP US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2013 Earnings Release	Q4 2013	0.404
Range Resources Corp	RRC US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2013 Earnings Release	Q4 2013	0.388
Leucadia National Corp	LUK US		Q4 2013 Earnings Release	Q4 2013

BARCHART MORNING CALL 11/19

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Tuesday, November 19th, 2013View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ13 -0.22%) this morning are down -0.13% and European stocks are down -0.78%. Asian stocks closed mostly lower: Japan -0.25%, Hong Kong -0.01%, China -0.69%, Taiwan +0.84%, Australia -0.59%, Singapore -0.34%, South Korea +1.05%, India +0.19%. World stock markets fell on growth concerns after the OECD cut its global growth forecasts for this year and next, while European stocks shook off the increase in German Nov investor sentiment to a 4-year high. Commodity prices are mixed. Dec crude oil (CLZ13 -0.44%) is down -0.19%. Dec gasoline (RBZ13 -0.08%) is down -0.02%. Dec gold (GCZ13 +0.32%) is up +0.27% and Dec copper (HGZ13 +0.05%) is up +0.02%. Agricultural and livestock prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.09%) is down -0.04% at a 1-1/2 week low on speculation that Fed speakers scheduled to speak today, including Fed Chairman Bernanke, will signal economic growth isn't yet strong enough to warrant a cut in stimulus. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.11% and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.12%. December T-note prices (ZNZ13 -0.01%) are down -1.5 ticks.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) cut its global forecast for this year to 2.7% from 3.1% predicted in May and lowered its global 2014 GDP forecast to 3.6% from 4.0% predicted in May.
German Nov ZEW survey of expectations of economic growth rose for a fourth month as it climbed +1.8 from Oct to 54.6, better than expectations of +1.2 to 54.0 and the highest level in 4-years. Nov ZEW survey current situation unexpectedly fell -1.0 point to 28.7, weaker than expectations of a +1.3 point increase to 31.0.
Eurozone Sep construction output fell -1.3% m/m, the biggest monthly decline in 6-months, and on an annual basis construction output fell -0.2% y/y.
China Oct foreign direct investment slowed to a +1.2% y/y increase from a +4.9% y/y gain in Sep, weaker than expectations of a +6.1% y/y increase.
Japan Oct nationwide department store sales declined -0.6% y/y as they slowed from a +2.8% y/y increase in Sep.
The Japan Sep leading index CI was revised lower to 109.2 from the originally reported 109.5, while the Sep coincident index was revised higher to 108.4 from the originally reported 108.2.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Today’s U.S. Q3 employment cost index (ECI) is expected to show an increase of +0.5% q/q and +2.0% y/y, little changed from the Q2 report of +0.5% q/q and +1.9% y/y. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke this afternoon will speak to the National Economist Club. There are 7 of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: Valspar (consensus $0.92), Home Depot (0.90), Campbell Soup (0.86), Best Buy (0.12), Medtronic (0.90), Dick's Sporting Goods (0.39), and TJX (0.74).
Conferences during the remainder of this week include the following: Wall Street Journal CEO Council Annual Meeting on Mon-Tue, KBW Securities Brokerage & Market Structure Conference on Tue, Gabelli & Co Inc Aircraft Supplier Conference on Tue, Morgan Stanley Global Consumer & Retail Conference on Tue-Wed, Citi Global Financial Conference on Tue-Wed, Lazard Capital Markets Healthcare Conference on Tue-Wed, Mitsubishi UFJ Securities Oil & Gas Corporate Access Day on Tue-Wed, UBS Global Technology Conference on Tue-Thu, Los Angeles Auto Show-Press Days on Tue-Thu, UBS Global Outlook Conference on Wed, Bloomberg Business Summit on Wed, Canaccord Genuity TMT Day on Wed, Goldman Sachs Metals & Mining Steel Conference on Wed-Thu, Morgan Stanley Technology Media & Telecoms Conference on Wed-Thu, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Energy Conference on Thu, Jefferies Global Health Care Conference on Thu, and 11th Annual MIT Sloan CFO Summit on Thu.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS +0.97%) reported Q3 EPS of 40 cents, better than consensus of 39 cents.
Best Buy (BBY -0.30%) jumped 3% in pre-market trading after it reported Q3 EPS of 18 cents, well ahead of consensus of 12 cents.
Valspar (VAL -1.09%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 97 cents, stronger than consensus of 92 cents.
Medtronic (MDT -0.41%) reported Q2 EPS of 91 cents, higher than consensus of 90 cents.
Campbell Soup (CPB -1.44%) reported Q1 EPS of 66 cents, well below consensus of 86 cents.
Home Depot (HD -0.45%) reported Q3 EPS of 95 cents, better than consensus of 90 cents.
Greenlight Capital reported that it lowered its stake in Einstein Noah (BAGL -3.28%) to 38.3% from 53.1%.
ING Group (ING -0.46%) said it will sell its 11.3% direct stake in Brazilian insurer SulAmérica to Swiss Re.
Salesforce.com (CRM -3.14%) fell 1% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 EPS of 9 cents, right on consensus, but then gave guidance on fiscal 2014 EPS of 33 cents-34 cents, on the low end of consensus of 34 cents.
Brocade (BRCD +0.12%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 24 cents, well ahead of consensus of 18 cents.
Urban Outfitters (URBN -1.32%) reported Q3 EPS of 47 cents, better than consensus of 45 cents.

MARKET COMMENTS

Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ13 -0.22%) this morning are down -2.25 points (-0.13%). The S&P 500 index on Monday posted a fresh all-time high but fell back late in the session and closed lower. Negative factors included (1) the Nov NAHB housing market index that was unchanged at 54, which was weaker than market expectations of 55, and (2) long liquidation and technical selling after the S&P 500 failed to remain above the 1800 level. Closes: S&P 500 +0.42%, Dow Jones +0.54%, Nasdaq 100 +0.22%.
Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ13 -0.01%) this morning are down -1.5 ticks. Dec 10-year T-note prices on Monday pushed up to a 1-week high and closed higher on speculation the Fed will maintain its pace of bond buying into next year. Another supportive factor for T-note prices was the weaker-than-expected Nov NAHB housing market index. Closes: TYZ3 +9.00, FVZ3 +4.00.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.09%) this morning is down -0.033 (-0.04%) at a 1-1/2 week low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0015 (-0.11%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.12 (-0.12%). The dollar index on Monday fell to a 1-week low on speculation the Fed will maintain QE3 into next year, but the dollar recovered and settled little changed after the S&P 500 fell back from a record high. Gains in EUR/USD were limited on renewed European sovereign debt concerns after data from the Bank of Spain showed Spain Sep non-performing loans, or defaults as a proportion of total lending at Spanish banks, rose to a record +12.7%. Closes: Dollar index -0.024 (-0.03%), EUR/USD +0.00096 (+0.07%), USD/JPY -0.198 (-0.20%).
Dec WTI crude oil (CLZ13 -0.44%) this morning is down -18 cents (-0.19%) and Dec gasoline (RBZ13 -0.08%) is down -0.0005 (-0.02%). Dec crude oil and gasoline prices on Monday closed lower. Crude oil closed lower after New York Fed President Dudley said he was upbeat on the U.S. economy, which fueled speculation the Fed will taper stimulus. Dec gasoline closed lower on speculation that refineries along the East and Gulf coasts that were shut for maintenance will soon restart and boost gasoline production. Closes: CLZ3 -0.81 (-0.86%), RBZ3 -0.0009 (-0.03%).

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR11/19/2013

US	0830 ET	Q3 employment cost index expected +0.5% q/q and +2.0% y/y, Q2 +0.5% q/q and +1.9% y/y.
	1300 ET	Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks to the Illinois Bankers Association Midwest Bank Leaders Conference.
	1630 ET	API weekly U.S. oil statistics.
	1900 ET	Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks to the National Economist Club.
JPN	0000 ET	Revised Japan Sep leading index CI, previous 109.5. Revised Sep coincident index, previous 108.2.
	1850 ET	Japan Oct trade balance expected -854.2 billion yen, Sep -934.3 billion yen. Oct exports expected +16.2% y/y, Sep +11.5% y/y. Oct imports expected +19.0% y/y, Sep +16.5% y/y.
	2330 ET	Japan Sep all-industry activity index expected +0.4% m/m, Aug +0.3% m/m.
EUR	0200 ET	Eurozone Oct new car registrations, Sep +5.4%.
	0500 ET	Eurozone Sep construction output, Aug +0.5% m/m and -4.7% y/y.
GER	0500 ET	German Nov ZEW survey expectations of economic growth expected +1.2 to 54.0, Oct 52.8. Nov ZEW survey current situation expected +1.3 to 31.0, Oct 29.7.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR11/19/2013

Company Name	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Valspar Corp/The	VAL US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2013 Earnings Release	Q4 2013	0.915
Home Depot Inc/The	HD US	6:00	Q3 2014 Earnings Release	Q3 2014	0.898
Campbell Soup Co	CPB US	6:30	Q1 2014 Earnings Release	Q1 2014	0.863
Best Buy Co Inc	BBY US	7:00	Q3 2014 Earnings Release	Q3 2014	0.121
Medtronic Inc	MDT US	7:15	Q2 2014 Earnings Release	Q2 2014	0.901
Dick's Sporting Goods Inc	DKS US	7:30	Q3 2014 Earnings Release	Q3 2014	0.386
Best Buy Co Inc	BBY US	8:00	Q3 2014 Earnings Call	Q3 2014
Medtronic Inc	MDT US	8:00	Q2 2014 Earnings Call	Q2 2014
CH Robinson Worldwide Inc	CHRW US	8:00	Analyst and Investor Day	Y 2013
IntercontinentalExchange Group Inc	ICE US	8:00	Business Update Call
Campbell Soup Co	CPB US	8:30	Q1 2014 Earnings Call	Q1 2014
United Continental Holdings Inc	UAL US	8:30	Investor Day	Y 2013
Home Depot Inc/The	HD US	9:00	Q3 2014 Earnings Call	Q3 2014
National Fuel Gas Co	NFG US	9:00	Analyst Day	Y 2013
UGI Corp	UGI US	9:00	Q4 2013 Earnings Call	Q4 2013
TJX Cos Inc	TJX US	9:30	Q3 2014 Earnings Release	Q3 2014	0.737
Energen Corp	EGN US		Investment Community Meeting - Day 2
Equifax Inc	EFX US		Investor Meeting - London	Y 2013
BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc	BMRN US		FDA Adcomm, Vimizim (GALNS), Morquio A Syndrome (MPS IVA)