Wednesday, June 25, 2014

BARCHART MORNING CALL 6/25

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
September E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 +0.04%) this morning are up +0.10% and European stocks are down -0.44%. European stocks were undercut on concern that the violence in Ukraine between government forces and rebels may escalate. Ukrainian President Poroshenko called for immediate talks with Russia, Germany and France after pro-Russian rebels shot down a government helicopter in violation of a cease-fire. Three people briefed on the plans said the U.S. is preparing additional sanctions aimed at specific areas of the Russian economy, including energy and technology. On the positive side in Europe, the German Jul Gfk consumer confidence rose more than expected to a 7-1/2 year high. Asian stocks closed lower: Japan -0.71%, Hong Kong -0.06%, China -0.53%, Taiwan -0.04%, Australia -0.57%, Singapore -0.02%, South Korea -0.61%, India -0.22%. China's Shanghai Stock Index closed lower after a gauge of Chinese consumer sentiment tumbled to the lowest in 11 months. Commodity prices are mixed. Aug crude oil (CLQ14 +0.37%) is up +0.51% and surged nearly +$1.50 a barrel in overnight trade after the WSJ reported that federal officials told two U.S. energy companies that they can legally export light crude after minimal processing. Oil prices fell back from their best levels, however, after a spokesman for the U.S. Department of Commerce said that "there has been no change in policy on crude oil exports." U.S. crude oil exports have been banned for the past 41 years and with U.S. crude production at a 27-1/2 year high, the oil industry is pressuring the Obama administration to end the oil export ban. Aug gasoline (RBQ14 -0.67%) is down -0.62%. Aug gold (GCQ14 -0.54%) is down -0.58%. July copper (HGN14 -0.21%) is up +0.02%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mixed, although July lean hog prices are up +0.52% and posted an all-time nearest-futures high of $1.312 a pound in overnight trade. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.01%) is up +0.01%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.02%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.04%. Sep T-note prices (ZNU14 +0.10%) are up +2.5 ticks.
The German Jul GfK consumer confidence rose +0.3 to 8.9, better than expectations of +0.1 to 8.6 and he highest in 7-1/2 years.
UK Jun CBI reported monthly sales unexpectedly fell -12 to 4, weaker than expectations of +7 to 23 and the lowest volume of sales in 7 months.
The China Jun Westpac-MNI consumer sentiment indicator dropped -8.6 to 112.6, the lowest in 11 months.
The Japan May PPI services rose +3.6% y/y, more than expectations of +3.3% y/y and the largest increase in 23-1/2 years.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today’s May durable goods orders report is expected to be unchanged overall and +0.3% ex-transportation following the April report of +0.6% and +0.3% ex-transportation. Today’s Q1 GDP report is expected to show a downward revision to -1.8% (q/q annualized) from the last estimate of -1.0%. The Treasury today will sell $35 billion of 5-year T-notes. The Treasury will then wrap up this week’s T-note package by selling $29 billion of 7-year T-notes on Thursday.
There are four of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: General Mills (consensus $0.72), Apollo Education Group (0.66), Monsanto (1.55), Bed Bath & Beyond (0.95). Equity conferences this week include: Global Hunter Securities LLC Energy Conference on Tue-Wed, Oppenheimer Consumer Conference on Tue-Wed, Mobile Pharma Biztech 2014 on Wed-Thu.








OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Whole Foods Markets (WFM -0.74%) was initiated with an 'Overweight' at Morgan Stanley with a price target of $50.
Harley-Davidson (HOG -0.99%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at KeyBanc.
Walgreens (WAG -1.70%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Jefferies with a price target of $87.
General Mills (GIS -1.05%) reported Q4 EPS of 67 cents, below consensus of 72 cents.
Valmont (VMI -0.27%) lost 5% in after-hours trading after it lowered guidance on fiscal 2014 EPS view to $9.35-$9.65 from a prior view of $10.00-$10.50, well below consensus of $10.37.
Lockheed Martin Space Systems (LMT -0.88%) has been awarded a $1.86 billion government contract modification to a previously awarded contract for Space-Based Infrared Systems Geosynchronous Earth Orbit 5 and 6 satellites, including performance incentives and options for acoustic testing and launch operations.
Affiliated Managers (AMG -0.89%) will replace Forest Labs (FRX +1.31%) in the S&P 500 as of the close on June 30.
Bristol-Myers (BMY +0.62%) rose 2% in after-hours trading after it said that a Phase 3 study of its drug nivolumab given to patients with advanced melanoma conducted by the independent Data Monitoring Committee showed evidence of superior overall survival rates.
Gabelli reported a 5.39% stake in AMC Networks (AMCX -0.07%) .
Hibbett Sports (HIBB +0.07%) was initiated with an 'Outperform' at BMO Capital with a price target of $64.
AK Steel (AKS -0.52%) said it will increase the base prices for for all of its stainless steel products, effective with shipments on July 6, by $40 per ton for automotive grades and by by $200 to $300 per ton for all non-automotive grades, depending on the product.
Team (TISI -1.81%) pre-announced that it expects to report adjusted Q4 EPS of 60 cents, below the company's previously issued adjusted earnings guidance for the current quarter of 65 cents-80 cents per share and below consensus of 71 cents.
MARKET COMMENTS
Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 +0.04%) this morning are up +2.00 points (+0.10%). The S&P 500 index on Tuesday posted a record high early but then fell back the rest of the day and closed lower on concern the violence in Iraq may escalate after the WSJ reported that Syrian warplanes bombed several areas in western Iraq. Bullish factors included (1) the +3.0 point increase in Jun consumer confidence to 85.2, stronger than expectations of +0.5 to 83.5 and the highest in 6-1/3 years, and (2) the +18.6% surge in May new home sales to 504,000, much higher than expectations of +1.4% to 439,000 and the highest in 6 years. Closes: S&P 500 -0.64%, Dow Jones -0.70%, Nasdaq -0.15%.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU14 +0.10%) this morning are up +2.5 ticks. Sep 10-year T-note futures prices on Tuesday closed higher on increased safe-haven demand after the S&P 500 fell back from a record high and closed lower. Bearish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected increase in May new home sales to the highest in 6 years, and (2) the increase in U.S. Jun consumer confidence to the best level in 6-1/3 years. Closes: TYU4 +9.50, FVU4 +4.25.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.01%) this morning is up +0.008 (+0.01%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0003 (-0.02%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.04 (-0.04%). The dollar index on Tuesday closed higher on signs of strength in the U.S. economy after (1) U.S. May new home sales rose to the highest in 6 years and (2) U.S. Jun consumer confidence climbed to the best level in 6-1/3 years. EUR/USD was little changed after the German Jun IFO business climate fell more-than-expected to the lowest level in 6 months. Closes: Dollar Index +0.055 (+0.07%), EUR/USD +0.0004 (+0.03%), USD/JPY +0.017 (+0.02%).
Aug WTI crude oil (CLQ14 +0.37%) this morning is up +54 cent (+0.51%). Aug gasoline (RBQ14 -0.67%) is down -0.0191 (-0.62%). Aug crude and gasoline prices on Tuesday settled mixed. Bullish factors included (1) concern that escalation of violence will lead to reduced oil exports from Iraq, OPEC’s second biggest producer, and (2) better-than-expected U.S. economic data on home sales and consumer confidence, which is positive for fuel demand. Crude oil fell into negative territory after a Saudi official said that Saudi Arabia will respond to any shortage in global oil markets with increased production. Closes: CLQ4 -0.14 (-0.13%) RBQ4 +0.0173 (+0.56%).
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR06/25/2014
US0700 ETWeekly MBA mortgage applications, previous -9.2% with purchase sub-index -4.7% and refi sub-index -12.7%.
0830 ETMay durable goods orders expected unch and +0.3% ex transportation, Apr +0.6% and +0.3% ex transportation. May non-defense capital goods orders ex-aircraft expected +0.5%, April -1.2%.
0830 ETQ1 GDP expected revised weaker to -1.8% from -1.0% (q/q annualized). Q1 personal consumption expected revised to +2.5% from +3.1%. Q1 GDP price index expected unrevised at +1.3%. Q1 core PCE expected unrevised at +1.2%.
0945 ETJune Markit U.S. Services PMI expected -0.1 to 58.0, May +3.1 to 58.1. June U.S. Composite PMI, May +2.8 to 58.4.
1000 ETTreasury Secretary Jacob Lew testifies to the Senate Banking Committee on the Financial Stability Oversight Council annual report.
1030 ETEIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
1300 ETTreasury auctions $35 billion 5-year T-notes.
GER0200 ETGerman July GfK consumer confidence expected +0.1 to 8.6, Jun 8.5.
UK0600 ETUK Jun CBI reported sales expected +7 to 23, May 16.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR06/25/2014
Company NameTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
General Mills IncGIS USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.719
Apollo Education Group IncAPOL USBef-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.661
Monsanto CoMON USBef-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20141.551
CIT Group IncCIT US8:00Investor DayY 2014
General Mills IncGIS US8:30Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Apollo Education Group IncAPOL US8:30Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Advance Auto Parts IncAAP US8:30Investor and Analyst MeetingY 2014
Hanesbrands IncHBI US8:30Acquisition of DBApparel of Sun Capital Partners, Inc by Hanesbrands, Inc Call
McKesson CorpMCK US9:00Investor DayY 2014
Waddell & Reed Financial IncWDR US9:00Investor DayY 2014
Monsanto CoMON US9:30Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
ARIAD Pharmaceuticals IncARIA US10:00Annual General MeetingY 2014
Equinix IncEQIX US10:00Investor DayY 2014
Schlumberger LtdSLB US11:00Investors Conference - Day 2Y 2014
Yahoo! IncYHOO US11:00Annual General MeetingY 2014
SLM CorpSLM US11:00Annual General MeetingY 2014
IHS IncIHS US12:00CABE Presents Energy Rivalry" with Kevin Birn"
Ingram Micro IncIM US12:25Investor DayY 2014
TransDigm Group IncTDG US12:45Analyst DayY 2014
Molson Coors Brewing CoTAP US13:30Analyst MeetingY 2014
Bed Bath & Beyond IncBBBY US16:15Q1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20150.945
Bed Bath & Beyond IncBBBY US17:00Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015
Public Service Enterprise Group IncPEG USInvestor MeetingY 2014
Questar CorpSTR USRoadshow - Day 3Y 2014
Raymond James Financial IncRJF USMay 2014 Sales and Revenue Release - Operating Data2014
Posted by Jim Van Meerten at
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