Showing posts with label VMI. Show all posts
Showing posts with label VMI. Show all posts

Wednesday, February 18, 2015

BARCHART MORNING CALL 2/18

BARCHART MORNING CALL
OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
March E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 -0.06%) this morning are down -0.06% and European stocks are up +0.70% at a 6-1/2 year high on speculation Greece and its creditors may be moving toward a compromise. A rally in European bank stocks is leading the markets higher after a person familiar with the matter said Greece may seek a 6-month extension of a loan agreement as soon as today. Asian stocks closed higher: Japan +1.18%, Hong Kong +0.19%, China, Taiwan and South Korea closed for holiday, Australia +0.98%, Singapore +0.58%, India +0.63%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index climbed to a 7-1/2 year high after the BOJ maintained record stimulus following its 2-day policy meeting and after BOJ Governor Kuroda pledged to adjust monetary policy if needed. Commodity prices are mixed. Mar crude oil (CLH15 -1.70%) is down -1.44% and Mar gasoline (RBH15 -1.20%) is down -0.71%. Apr gold (GCJ15 -0.26%) is down -0.29% at a 6-week low on optimism that Greece will ease a standoff with its creditors and before the minutes of the Jan 27-28 FOMC meeting that may signal the Fed is closer to raising interest rates. Mar copper (HGH15 +0.02%) is down -0.08%. Agriculture prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.24%) is up +0.29%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.34%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.07%. Mar T-note prices (ZNH15 -0.05%) are down -2.5 ticks at a 6-week low.
UK Jan jobless claims fell -38,600, more than expectations of -25,000 and the most in 7 months. The Jan claimant count rate fell -0.1 to 2.5%, right on expectations and the lowest in 6-3/4 years.
The UK Dec ILO unemployment rate unexpectedly fell -0.1 to 5.7% in the 3-months through Dec, better than expectations of unch at 5.8% and the lowest in 6-1/2 years.
Dec avg weekly earnings rose +2.1% 3-mon avg, more than expectations of +1.7% 3-mon avg and the most in 1-1/2 years. Dec avg weekly earnings ex-bonus rose +1.7% 3-mon avg, less than expectations of +1.8% 3-mon avg.
Eurozone Dec construction output fell -0.8% m/m and -3.5% y/y, with the -3.5% y/y drop the largest annual decline in 1-1/2 years.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today’s Jan housing starts report is expected to show a -1.7% decline to 1.070 million, giving back a little of December’s +4.4% increase to 1.089 million. Today’s Jan final-demand PPI index is expected to fall to +0.4% y/y from +1.1% in December. Meanwhile, today’s Jan core PPI index is expected to edge lower to +2.0% y/y from +2.1% in December. Today’s Jan industrial production report is expected to show an increase of +0.3%, recovering somewhat after the -0.1% decline seen in December. The FOMC today will release the minutes from the recent Jan 27-28 FOMC meeting, which was a relatively uneventful meeting.
There are 1 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today with notable reports including: Marathon Oil (consensus $0.02), Williams Companies (0.24), Marriott (0.67), Duke Energy (0.88), Garmin (0.79), Fluor (1.10). Equity conferences this week include: Consumer Analysts Group of New York Conference on Tue-Thu, and Barclays Industrial Select Conference on Wed-Thu.




OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Duke Energy (DUK -0.56%) reported Q4 EPS of 87 cents, below consensus of 88 cents.
Allegion PLC (ALLE -0.17%) reported Q4 EPS of 76 cents, better than consensus of 68 cents.
Exxon Mobil (XOM -0.34%) fell over 2% in pre-market trading after Berkshire Hathaway announced it had exited its $3.7 billion investment in the company.
Owens & Minor (OMI -1.00%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 49 cents, below consensus of 50 cents, and then lowered guidance on fiscal 2015 EPS to $1.90-$1.95, at the low end of consensus of $1.95.
Valmont (VMI +0.85%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $1.62, less than consensus of $1.65.
Terex ({=TEX reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 72 cents, higher than consensus of 68 cents.
CF Industries (CF -0.89%) fell over 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 EPS of $4.82, below consensus of $5.08.
Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH -0.71%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 36 cents, less than consensus of 37 cents.
KAR Auction (KAR -0.11%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 40 cents, better than consensus of 29 cents.
Flowserve (FLS +0.46%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.16, above consensus of $1.13.
Analog Devices (ADI +3.09%) reported Q1 EPS of 63 cents, better than consensus of 61 cents.
Jack in the Box (JACK +1.19%) rose over 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 EPS of 93 cents, higher than consensus of 87 cents, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2015 EPS to $2.85-$2.97, above consensus $2.84.
AMC Entertainment (AMC +0.91%) reported Q4 EPS of 30 cents, well above consensus of 20 cents.
Agilent (A +0.92%) reported Q1 EPS of 41 cents, right on consensus, but then lowered guidance on fiscal 2015 EPS to $1.67- $1.73, on the low side of consensus at $1.73.
Fossil (FOSL +0.89%) reported Q4 EPS of $3.00, below consensus of $3.07, and then lowered guidance on fiscal 2015 EPS to$5.45-$6.05, well below consensus of $7.54.
Rackspace (RAX -0.28%) reported Q4 EPS of 26 cents, above consensus of 19 cents.
MARKET COMMENTS
Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 -0.06%) this morning are down -1.25 points (-0.06%). The S&P 500 index on Tuesday posted a new record high and closed higher: S&P 500 +0.16%, Dow Jones +0.16%, Nasdaq +0.03%. Bullish factors included (1) reduced Greek default concerns after an unconfirmed report that Greece’s government may request an extension of its loan agreement for 6 months, something it previously said it would not do, and (2) a rally in health-care stocks. Stocks had opened lower on bearish factors that included (1) the -2.17 point decline in the Feb Empire manufacturing index, weaker than expectations of -1.95 to 8.00, and (2) the unexpected -2 point decline in the Feb NAHB housing market index to 55, weaker than expectations of +1 to 58 and a 4-month low.
Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH15 -0.05%) this morning are down -2.5 ticks at a 6-week low. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices on Tuesday tumbled to a 1-1/4 month low and closed lower. Closes: TYH5 -31.50, FVH5 -15.50. Bearish factors included (1) hawkish comments from Cleveland Fed President Mester who said that she sees June as a “viable option” for when to begin raising interest rates, and (2) fund selling of T-notes after a report that Greece will ask for a 6-month extension of its loan agreement, which reduced Greek default concerns and curbed safe-haven demand for T-notes.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.24%) this morning is up +0.273 (+0.29%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0039 (-0.34%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.08 (+0.07%). The dollar index on Tuesday fell to a 1-week low and closed lower: Dollar index -0.140 (-0.15%), EUR/USD +0.00576 (+0.51%), USD/JPY +0.763 (+0.4%). Bearish factors included (1) strength in EUR/USD which rallied to a 1-week high after the German Feb ZEW survey expectations of economic growth rose to a 1-year high, and (2) weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data on Feb Empire manufacturing and the Feb NAHB housing market index that may prompt the Fed to delay interest rate hikes.
Mar WTI crude oil (CLH15 -1.70%) this morning is down -77 cents (-1.44%) and Mar gasoline (RBH15 -1.20%) is down -0.0113 (-0.71%). Mar crude and Mar gasoline on Tuesday settled mixed: CLH5 +0.75 (+1.42%), RBH5 -0.0361 (-2.22%). Bullish factors included (1) the fall in the dollar index to a 1-week low, and (2) the rally in the S&P 500 to a new all-time high. Bearish factors included expectations that Thursday’s weekly EIA data will show crude supplies rose +3.0 million bbl to a record high of 420 million bbl.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR02/18/2015
US0700 ETWeekly MBA mortgage applications, previous -9.0% with purchase sub-index -6.5% and refi sub-index -10.3%.
0830 ETJan housing starts expected -1.7% to 1.070 million, Dec +4.4% to 1.089 million. Jan building permits expected +1.0% to 1.069 million, Dec +0.6% to 1.058 million.
0830 ETJan PPI final demand expected -0.4% m/m and +0.4% y/y, Dec -0.3% m/m and +1.1% y/y. Jan PPI ex food & energy expected +0.1% m/m and +2.0% y/y, Dec +0.3% m/m and +2.1% y/y.
0915 ETJan industrial production expected +0.3%, Dec -0.1%. Jan capacity utilization expected +0.2 to 79.9%, Dec -0.3 to 79.7%.
1400 ETMinutes of the Jan 27-28 FOMC meeting.
JPN0100 ETRevised Japan Jan machine tool orders.
1850 ETJapan Jan trade balance expected -1.681 trillion yen, Dec -665.2 billion yen. Jan exports expected +13.5% y/y, Dec +12.8% y/y. Jan imports expected -4.9% y/y, Dec +1.9% y/y.
2330 ETJapan Dec all-industry activity index expected -0.3% m/m, Nov +0.1% m/m.
n/aBOJ announces interest rate decision following 2-day policy meeting.
UK0430 ETUK Jan jobless claims change expected -25,000, Dec -29,700. Jan claimant count rate expected +2.5%, Dec 2.6%.
0430 ETUK Dec ILO unemployment rate expected 5.8% 3-months through Dec, previous 5.8% 3-months through Nov.
0430 ETUK Dec avg weekly earnings expected +1.7% 3-mon avg, Nov +1.7% 3-mon avg. Dec weekly earnings ex-bonus expected +1.8% 3-mon avg, Nov +1.8% 3-mon avg.
0430 ETBOE minutes from the Feb 4-5 policy meeting.
EUR0500 ETEurozone Dec construction output, Nov -0.1% m/m and +2.2% y/y.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR02/18/2015
CompanyTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
NiSource IncNI USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.518
Fluor CorpFLR USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20141.102
Allegion PLCALLE USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.68
Actavis plcACT USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20143.906
Garmin LtdGRMN USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.788
Duke Energy CorpDUK US7:00Q4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.879
DENTSPLY International IncXRAY US7:00Q4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.608
Allegion PLCALLE US8:30Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Actavis plcACT US8:30Investor DayY 2015
DENTSPLY International IncXRAY US8:30Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
NiSource IncNI US9:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Fluor CorpFLR US9:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
CF Industries Holdings IncCF US9:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
FirstEnergy CorpFE US9:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Duke Energy CorpDUK US10:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Vornado Realty TrustVNO US10:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Garmin LtdGRMN US10:30Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Devon Energy CorpDVN US11:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Flowserve CorpFLS US11:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Nabors Industries LtdNBR US11:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Cimarex Energy CoXEC US11:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Marriott International Inc/MDMAR US17:00Q4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.65
EOG Resources IncEOG USAft-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.999
Marathon Oil CorpMRO USAft-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.02
Williams Cos Inc/TheWMB USAft-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.235
Progressive Corp/ThePGR USJanuary 2015 Sales and Revenue Release2015

Tuesday, January 13, 2015

BARCHART MORNING CALL 1/13

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
March E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 +0.49%) this morning are up +0.53% and European stocks are up +1.20% as a plunge in crude oil to a new 5-1/2 year low reduces expectations of an early interest rate increase by the Fed and boosts speculation the ECB will expand stimulus to ward off deflation. Stocks also received support from a larger-than-expected increase in China Dec exports, a sign of economic strength. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan -0.64%, Hong Kong +0.79%, China +0.01%, Taiwan +0.58%, Australia -0.33%, Singapore -0.11%, South Korea +0.24%, India -0.58%. Commodity prices are mixed. Feb crude oil (CLG15 -2.82%) is down -2.76% at a fresh 5-1/2 year low. Feb gasoline (RBG15 -2.56%) is down -2.55% at a 5-3/4 year low. Feb gold (GCG15 +0.56%) is up +0.53% at a 2-1/2 month high on speculation the plunge in energy costs will raise deflation concerns and reduce the chance of a Fed interest rate increase. Mar copper (HGH15 -2.90%) is down -2.97% at a 4-1/2 year low on signs of increased supplies after LME copper inventories rose +3,925 MT to a 7-3/4 month high of 191.325 MT. Copper continues to slide despite strong demand from China after data from China's customs office showed China 2014 copper imports rose +7.4% to a record 4.83 MMT. Agriculture prices are higher. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.28%) is up +0.31%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.36%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.26%. Mar T-note prices (ZNH15 +0.16%) are up +6.5 ticks at a 2-3/4 month high.
The China Dec trade balance was in surplus by +$49.61 billion, more than expectations of +$49.00 billion. Dec exports rose +9.7% y/y, stronger than expectations of +6.0% y/y. Dec imports fell -2.4% y/y, less than expectations of -6.2% y/y.
Comments from ECB Governing Council member Nowotny signal he favors implementing QE when the ECB meets on Jan 22 when he said policy makers must treat the threat of deflation seriously and "we shouldn't wait too long with a reaction."
The German Dec wholesale price index fell -1.0% m/m, the biggest decline in 6 years. On an annual basis, Dec wholesale prices fell -2.3% y/y, the largest annual decline in 5 years.
UK Dec CPI was unch m/m and rose +0.5% y/y, less than expectations of +0.1% m/m and +0.7% y/y with the +0.5% y/y increase matching the May 2000 gain as the slowest annual pace of increase on record. Dec core CPI rose +1.3% y/y, right on expectations.
The Japan Dec eco-watchers survey current rose +3.7 to 45.2, more than expectations of +2.5 to 44.0. The Dec eco-watchers survey outlook rose +2.7 to 46.7.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today’s Nov JOLTS job openings report is expected to rise by +16,000 jobs to 4.850 million jobs, adding to October’s increase of +149,000 to 4.834 million jobs.  The Treasury today will sell $21 billion of 10-year T-notes.  There are three of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today:  IHS (consensus $1.55), CSX (0.49), Linear Technology (0.49).  Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include:  JP Morgan Health Care Conference on Mon-Wed, Needham Growth Conference on Tue, Deutsche Bank Global Auto Industry Conference on Tue-Wed, and Biomarkers from Research to Clinic Conference on Fri.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Hilton (HLT -1.01%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at Wells Fargo.
Marathon Petroleum (MPC -3.47%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Overweight' at JPMorgan Chase.
Mosaic (MOS +0.87%) was downgraded to 'Underperformer' from 'Sector Performer' at CIBC.
Tilly's (TLYS +0.43%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at B. Riley.
Comerica (CMA -0.96%) was upgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Underperform' at RW Baird.
NRG Energy (NRG -1.66%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Goldman Sachs.
FirstEnergy (FE -1.31%) was downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Neutral' at Goldman Sachs.
Valmont (VMI -0.06%) lowered its fiscal 2014 EPS view to $8.10-$8.20 from $8.55-$8.65, weaker than consensus of $8.60.
Paulson & Co. reported a 19.8% passive stake in International Tower Hill Mines (THM +11.90%) .
Wolverine World Wide (WWW +0.37%) said it sees fiscal 2014 adjusted EPS at the high end of $1.57-$1.63 with fiscal 2014 revenue of $2.76 billion, more than consensus of $2.74 billion.
The Leverhulme Trust reported a 5.5% stake in Unilever (UL +1.53%) .
Sensata (ST -1.51%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at Stifel with a price target of $60.
Nokomis Capital reported a 10.1% passive stake in WidePoint (WYY -1.94%) .
SYNNEX (SNX -1.31%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.83, stronger than consensus of $1.69, and then sais it sees Q1 EPS of $1.49-$1.54, above consensus of $1.45.
Alcoa (AA +0.37%) rose over 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 33 cents, well above consensus of 27 cents.
MARKET COMMENTS
Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 +0.49%) this morning are up +10.75 points (+0.53%). The S&P 500 index on Monday closed lower: S&P 500 -0.81%, Dow Jones -0.54%, Nasdaq -1.03%. Bearish factors included (1) a slide in energy producers after the price of crude plunged to a new 5-1/2 year low, and (2) trepidation and long liquidation pressures ahead of Q4 earnings season that officially started on Monday with Alcoa’s earnings report.
Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH15 +0.16%) this morning are up +6.5 ticks at a 2-3/4 month high. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices on Monday posted a 2-3/4 month high and closed higher. Closes: TYH5 +15.50, FVH5 +9.00. Supportive factors included (1) the plunge in crude oil to a 5-1/2 year low, which dampens the outlook for inflation and spurs speculation the Fed may delay an interest rate increase, (2) strong foreign demand for the Treasury’s $24 billion 3-year T-note auction where indirect bidders, an investor class that includes foreign central banks, bought 45.8% of the T-notes at auction, the most since Aug 2011, and (3) increased safe-haven demand for Treasuries as stocks sold off.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.28%)this morning is up +0.288 (+0.31%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0043 (-0.36%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.31 (+0.26%). The dollar index on Monday closed higher: Dollar index +0.048 (+0.05%), EUR/USD -0.00053 (-0.04%), USD/JPY -0.093 (-0.08%). Supportive factors for the dollar included (1) weakness in EUR/USD on speculation the ECB will announce a QE program when it convenes next week, and (2) a slide in stocks, which boosted the safe-haven demand for the dollar.
Feb WTI crude oil (CLG15 -2.82%) this morning is down -$1.27 a barrel (-2.76%) at a fresh 5-1/2 year low and Feb gasoline (RBG15 -2.56%) is down -0.0325 (-2.55%) at a 5-3/4 year low. Feb crude oil and Feb gasoline on Monday closed sharply lower with Feb crude oil at a 5-1/2 year low and Feb gasoline at a 5-3/4 year low: CLG5 -2.29 (-4.74%), RBG5 -0.0487 (-3.66%). Bearish factors included (1) a stronger dollar, and (2) the action by Goldman Sachs to lower its price forecast for WTI crude to $41 per barrel in 3 months, citing excess U.S. storage capacity and the likelihood for U.S. inventories to increase in the first half of this year.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR01/13/2015
US1000 ETNov JOLTS job openings expected 4.850 million, Oct 4.834 million.
1300 ETTreasury auctions $21 billion 10-year T-notes.
1400 ETDec monthly budget statement expected +$3.000 billion, Nov -$56.818 billion.
1700 ETMinneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota discusses his 2015 outlook for the economy and monetary policy at an event in New York.
JPN0000 ETJapan Dec eco-watchers survey current expected +2.5 to 44.0, Nov 41.5. Dec eco-watchers survey outlook, Nov 44.0.
GER0200 ETGerman Dec wholesale price index, Nov -0.7% m/m and -1.1% y/y.
UK0430 ETUK Dec CPI expected +0.1% m/m and +0.7% y/y, Nov -0.3% m/m and +1.0% y/y. Dec core CPI expected +1.3% y/y, Nov +1.2% y/y.
0430 ETUK Dec RPI expected +0.1% m/m and +1.6% y/y, Nov -0.2% m/m and +2.0% y/y. Dec RPI ex-mortgage interest payments expected +1.6% y/y, Nov +2.0% y/y.
0430 ETUK Dec PPI input prices expected -2.6% m/m and -11.6% y/y, Nov -1.0% m/m and -8.8% y/y
0430 ETUK Dec PPI output prices expected -0.3% m/m and -0.4% y/y, Nov +0.2% m/m and -0.1% y/y. Dec PPI output core expected -0.1% m/m and +1.2% y/y, Nov +0.5% m/m and +1.4% y/y.
0430 ETUK Nov ONS house prices expected +9.8% y/y, Oct +10.4% y/y.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR01/13/2015
CompanyTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
IHS IncIHS US6:00Q4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20141.551
IHS IncIHS US8:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Monster Beverage CorpMNST US16:15Investor MeetingY 2015
CSX CorpCSX USAft-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.49
Linear Technology CorpLLTC USAft-mktQ2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20150.491
GameStop CorpGME USDecember 2014 Sales and Revenue Release2014

Wednesday, June 25, 2014

BARCHART MORNING CALL 6/25

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
September E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 +0.04%) this morning are up +0.10% and European stocks are down -0.44%. European stocks were undercut on concern that the violence in Ukraine between government forces and rebels may escalate. Ukrainian President Poroshenko called for immediate talks with Russia, Germany and France after pro-Russian rebels shot down a government helicopter in violation of a cease-fire. Three people briefed on the plans said the U.S. is preparing additional sanctions aimed at specific areas of the Russian economy, including energy and technology. On the positive side in Europe, the German Jul Gfk consumer confidence rose more than expected to a 7-1/2 year high. Asian stocks closed lower: Japan -0.71%, Hong Kong -0.06%, China -0.53%, Taiwan -0.04%, Australia -0.57%, Singapore -0.02%, South Korea -0.61%, India -0.22%. China's Shanghai Stock Index closed lower after a gauge of Chinese consumer sentiment tumbled to the lowest in 11 months. Commodity prices are mixed. Aug crude oil (CLQ14 +0.37%) is up +0.51% and surged nearly +$1.50 a barrel in overnight trade after the WSJ reported that federal officials told two U.S. energy companies that they can legally export light crude after minimal processing. Oil prices fell back from their best levels, however, after a spokesman for the U.S. Department of Commerce said that "there has been no change in policy on crude oil exports." U.S. crude oil exports have been banned for the past 41 years and with U.S. crude production at a 27-1/2 year high, the oil industry is pressuring the Obama administration to end the oil export ban. Aug gasoline (RBQ14 -0.67%) is down -0.62%. Aug gold (GCQ14 -0.54%) is down -0.58%. July copper (HGN14 -0.21%) is up +0.02%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mixed, although July lean hog prices are up +0.52% and posted an all-time nearest-futures high of $1.312 a pound in overnight trade. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.01%) is up +0.01%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.02%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.04%. Sep T-note prices (ZNU14 +0.10%) are up +2.5 ticks.
The German Jul GfK consumer confidence rose +0.3 to 8.9, better than expectations of +0.1 to 8.6 and he highest in 7-1/2 years.
UK Jun CBI reported monthly sales unexpectedly fell -12 to 4, weaker than expectations of +7 to 23 and the lowest volume of sales in 7 months.
The China Jun Westpac-MNI consumer sentiment indicator dropped -8.6 to 112.6, the lowest in 11 months.
The Japan May PPI services rose +3.6% y/y, more than expectations of +3.3% y/y and the largest increase in 23-1/2 years.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today’s May durable goods orders report is expected to be unchanged overall and +0.3% ex-transportation following the April report of +0.6% and +0.3% ex-transportation. Today’s Q1 GDP report is expected to show a downward revision to -1.8% (q/q annualized) from the last estimate of -1.0%. The Treasury today will sell $35 billion of 5-year T-notes. The Treasury will then wrap up this week’s T-note package by selling $29 billion of 7-year T-notes on Thursday.
There are four of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: General Mills (consensus $0.72), Apollo Education Group (0.66), Monsanto (1.55), Bed Bath & Beyond (0.95). Equity conferences this week include: Global Hunter Securities LLC Energy Conference on Tue-Wed, Oppenheimer Consumer Conference on Tue-Wed, Mobile Pharma Biztech 2014 on Wed-Thu.








OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Whole Foods Markets (WFM -0.74%) was initiated with an 'Overweight' at Morgan Stanley with a price target of $50.
Harley-Davidson (HOG -0.99%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at KeyBanc.
Walgreens (WAG -1.70%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Jefferies with a price target of $87.
General Mills (GIS -1.05%) reported Q4 EPS of 67 cents, below consensus of 72 cents.
Valmont (VMI -0.27%) lost 5% in after-hours trading after it lowered guidance on fiscal 2014 EPS view to $9.35-$9.65 from a prior view of $10.00-$10.50, well below consensus of $10.37.
Lockheed Martin Space Systems (LMT -0.88%) has been awarded a $1.86 billion government contract modification to a previously awarded contract for Space-Based Infrared Systems Geosynchronous Earth Orbit 5 and 6 satellites, including performance incentives and options for acoustic testing and launch operations.
Affiliated Managers (AMG -0.89%) will replace Forest Labs (FRX +1.31%) in the S&P 500 as of the close on June 30.
Bristol-Myers (BMY +0.62%) rose 2% in after-hours trading after it said that a Phase 3 study of its drug nivolumab given to patients with advanced melanoma conducted by the independent Data Monitoring Committee showed evidence of superior overall survival rates.
Gabelli reported a 5.39% stake in AMC Networks (AMCX -0.07%) .
Hibbett Sports (HIBB +0.07%) was initiated with an 'Outperform' at BMO Capital with a price target of $64.
AK Steel (AKS -0.52%) said it will increase the base prices for for all of its stainless steel products, effective with shipments on July 6, by $40 per ton for automotive grades and by by $200 to $300 per ton for all non-automotive grades, depending on the product.
Team (TISI -1.81%) pre-announced that it expects to report adjusted Q4 EPS of 60 cents, below the company's previously issued adjusted earnings guidance for the current quarter of 65 cents-80 cents per share and below consensus of 71 cents.
MARKET COMMENTS
Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 +0.04%) this morning are up +2.00 points (+0.10%). The S&P 500 index on Tuesday posted a record high early but then fell back the rest of the day and closed lower on concern the violence in Iraq may escalate after the WSJ reported that Syrian warplanes bombed several areas in western Iraq. Bullish factors included (1) the +3.0 point increase in Jun consumer confidence to 85.2, stronger than expectations of +0.5 to 83.5 and the highest in 6-1/3 years, and (2) the +18.6% surge in May new home sales to 504,000, much higher than expectations of +1.4% to 439,000 and the highest in 6 years. Closes: S&P 500 -0.64%, Dow Jones -0.70%, Nasdaq -0.15%.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU14 +0.10%) this morning are up +2.5 ticks. Sep 10-year T-note futures prices on Tuesday closed higher on increased safe-haven demand after the S&P 500 fell back from a record high and closed lower. Bearish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected increase in May new home sales to the highest in 6 years, and (2) the increase in U.S. Jun consumer confidence to the best level in 6-1/3 years. Closes: TYU4 +9.50, FVU4 +4.25.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.01%) this morning is up +0.008 (+0.01%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0003 (-0.02%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.04 (-0.04%). The dollar index on Tuesday closed higher on signs of strength in the U.S. economy after (1) U.S. May new home sales rose to the highest in 6 years and (2) U.S. Jun consumer confidence climbed to the best level in 6-1/3 years. EUR/USD was little changed after the German Jun IFO business climate fell more-than-expected to the lowest level in 6 months. Closes: Dollar Index +0.055 (+0.07%), EUR/USD +0.0004 (+0.03%), USD/JPY +0.017 (+0.02%).
Aug WTI crude oil (CLQ14 +0.37%) this morning is up +54 cent (+0.51%). Aug gasoline (RBQ14 -0.67%) is down -0.0191 (-0.62%). Aug crude and gasoline prices on Tuesday settled mixed. Bullish factors included (1) concern that escalation of violence will lead to reduced oil exports from Iraq, OPEC’s second biggest producer, and (2) better-than-expected U.S. economic data on home sales and consumer confidence, which is positive for fuel demand. Crude oil fell into negative territory after a Saudi official said that Saudi Arabia will respond to any shortage in global oil markets with increased production. Closes: CLQ4 -0.14 (-0.13%) RBQ4 +0.0173 (+0.56%).
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR06/25/2014
US0700 ETWeekly MBA mortgage applications, previous -9.2% with purchase sub-index -4.7% and refi sub-index -12.7%.
0830 ETMay durable goods orders expected unch and +0.3% ex transportation, Apr +0.6% and +0.3% ex transportation. May non-defense capital goods orders ex-aircraft expected +0.5%, April -1.2%.
0830 ETQ1 GDP expected revised weaker to -1.8% from -1.0% (q/q annualized). Q1 personal consumption expected revised to +2.5% from +3.1%. Q1 GDP price index expected unrevised at +1.3%. Q1 core PCE expected unrevised at +1.2%.
0945 ETJune Markit U.S. Services PMI expected -0.1 to 58.0, May +3.1 to 58.1. June U.S. Composite PMI, May +2.8 to 58.4.
1000 ETTreasury Secretary Jacob Lew testifies to the Senate Banking Committee on the Financial Stability Oversight Council annual report.
1030 ETEIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
1300 ETTreasury auctions $35 billion 5-year T-notes.
GER0200 ETGerman July GfK consumer confidence expected +0.1 to 8.6, Jun 8.5.
UK0600 ETUK Jun CBI reported sales expected +7 to 23, May 16.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR06/25/2014
Company NameTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
General Mills IncGIS USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.719
Apollo Education Group IncAPOL USBef-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.661
Monsanto CoMON USBef-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20141.551
CIT Group IncCIT US8:00Investor DayY 2014
General Mills IncGIS US8:30Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Apollo Education Group IncAPOL US8:30Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Advance Auto Parts IncAAP US8:30Investor and Analyst MeetingY 2014
Hanesbrands IncHBI US8:30Acquisition of DBApparel of Sun Capital Partners, Inc by Hanesbrands, Inc Call
McKesson CorpMCK US9:00Investor DayY 2014
Waddell & Reed Financial IncWDR US9:00Investor DayY 2014
Monsanto CoMON US9:30Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
ARIAD Pharmaceuticals IncARIA US10:00Annual General MeetingY 2014
Equinix IncEQIX US10:00Investor DayY 2014
Schlumberger LtdSLB US11:00Investors Conference - Day 2Y 2014
Yahoo! IncYHOO US11:00Annual General MeetingY 2014
SLM CorpSLM US11:00Annual General MeetingY 2014
IHS IncIHS US12:00CABE Presents Energy Rivalry" with Kevin Birn"
Ingram Micro IncIM US12:25Investor DayY 2014
TransDigm Group IncTDG US12:45Analyst DayY 2014
Molson Coors Brewing CoTAP US13:30Analyst MeetingY 2014
Bed Bath & Beyond IncBBBY US16:15Q1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20150.945
Bed Bath & Beyond IncBBBY US17:00Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015
Public Service Enterprise Group IncPEG USInvestor MeetingY 2014
Questar CorpSTR USRoadshow - Day 3Y 2014
Raymond James Financial IncRJF USMay 2014 Sales and Revenue Release - Operating Data2014

Wednesday, November 21, 2012

5 Mid Cap Picks

Today I sorted the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index to find the 5 with the best Barchart technical indicators and charts.  Near the top of the list were Valueclick (VCLK), Valspar (VAL), Louisiana-Pacific (LPX), Eaton Vance (EV), Valmont Industries (VMI):

Valueclick (VLCK)


  • 100% Barchart technical buy signal
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 8 new highs and up 12.29% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 67.96%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 17.65
  • Recently traded at 18.69 with a 50 day moving average of 17.35
Valspar (VAL)


  • 100% Barchart technical buy signal
  • Trend spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 6 new highs and up 5.33% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 63.99%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 53.53
  • Recently traded at 60.58 with a 50 day moving average of 57.42
Louisiana-Pacific (LPX)


  • 100% Barchart technical buy signal
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 4 new highs and up 10.79% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 68.46%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 16.29
  • Recently traded at 17.38 with a 50 day moving average of 14.72
Eaton Vance (EV)


  • 100% Barchart technical buy signal
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 9 new highs and up 9.55% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 74.61%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 29.42
  • Recenlty traded at 31.69 with a 50 day moving average of 28.97
Valmont Industries (VMI)


  • 96% Barchart technical buy signal
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 3 new highs and up .80% in the last month
  • Relative  Strength Index 58.48%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 134.54
  • Recently traded at 136.67 with a 50 day moving average of 132.05










Friday, October 19, 2012

Barchart Morning Call 10/19


Overnight Developments
  • Dec E-mini S&Ps are down by -0.19% on the -0.69% decline in European stocks as bank stocks fell after EU leaders failed to discuss further aid for Spain at their 2-day EU Summit that began yesterday. Asian stocks closed mixed as Chinese shares fell -0.15% after an advisor to the PBOC said the Chinese government won't provide big economic stimulus measures and that a strong rebound in growth is unlikely. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Index rallied to a 3-week high and closed up +0.22% as machinery makers advanced after the Oct U.S. Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index expanded for the first time in 6 months. Commodity prices are mixed with Nov crude up +0.01 %, Dec copper down -1.30% and agriculture prices higher. The dollar index is up +0.10% and Dec T-notes are up 5.5 ticks.
  • European stocks were under pressure and Spain's bond yields rose after Spanish Prime Minister Rajoy said he's "not facing pressure to seek a bailout" and he won't take any such pressure into account in any case.
  • EU leaders agreed on a framework that makes the ECB the main Euro-Zone banking supervisor by Jan 1, 2013. According to EU President Herman Von Rompuy, the new supervisor can "probably be effectively operational" and allow the euro bailout fund to lend directly to banks as soon as 2013 and will phase in over the next year and could cover all 6,000 Euro-Zone banks by Jan 1, 2014.
  • Italy's 10-year bond yield fell to a 7-month low of 4.70% after Italy's Treasury said it received orders for more than 18 billion euros of retail bonds it was selling to individual investors, double the two previous offers combined, which reduces funding pressures on the Italian Treasury between now and year-end.
  • Moody's Investors Service said the outlook for German banks remains negative as "intense competition" and low interest rates weigh on earnings and that exposure to stressed Euro-Zone countries, plus commercial real estate and shipping, make German lenders "vulnerable to a worsening of the sovereign debt crisis in Europe."
  • German Sep producer prices rose +0.3% m/m, exactly in line with market expectations, although the +1.7% y/y increase was larger than expectations of +1.6% y/y.
    Market Comments
    • Dec E-mini S&Ps this morning are down -2.75 points. The S&P 500 index on Thursday closed lower: S&P 500 -0.24%, Dow Jones -0.06%, Nasdaq 100 -1.13%. The stock market received support from (1) Wednesday night's Chinese Q3 GDP report of +7.4% and the stronger than expected Chinese retail sales and industrial production reports, and (2) the stronger-than-expected U.S. Sep leading indicators report of +0.6% and Oct Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index of +7.6 to 5.7. However, stocks were undercut by the sharp increase in U.S. initial unemployment claims and a poor earnings report from Google that dragged down stocks tied to online advertising. U.S. weekly initial unemployment claims rose by 46,000 to 388,000, more than reversing by 19,000 the previous week's -27,000 slide on end-quarter seasonal adjustment problems in one state. China's Q3 GDP report of +7.4% was down from +7.6% but was in line with market expectations. China's Sep industrial production report of +9.2% y/y was up from +8.9% in August and was stronger than market expectations of +9.0%. The Sep retail sales report of +14.2% was up from +13.2% in August and was stronger than market expectations of +13.2%.
    • Dec 10-year T-notes this morning are up +5.5 ticks on increased safe-haven demand as equities falter. Dec 10-year T-note prices on Thursday closed with slightly lower: TYZ2 -3, FVZ2 -1.25. T-note prices on Thursday extended the sharp Tue-Wed sell-off to a new 1-month low on continued technical weakness and concern about the recent uptick in the U.S. economic data.
    • The dollar index this morning is up +0.10%. EUR/USD is down -0.20% and USD/JPY is down -0.13%. The dollar index on Thursday closed mildly higher: Dollar index +0.36 (+0.46%), EUR/USD -0.0052 (-0.40%), USD/JPY +0.35 (+0.44%). The dollar index rebounded higher on (1) some short-covering after the sharp sell-off seen on Tue-Wed, (2) weakness in U.S. stocks, and (3) nervousness ahead of the 2-day EU Summit that began on Thursday. EUR/USD was also undercut by another general strike in Greece and a protest march in Athens that turned violent.
    • Nov WTI crude oil prices this morning are little changed and up +1 cent a barrel and Nov gasoline is up +2.60 cents per gallon. Nov crude oil and gasoline prices on Thursday closed lower: CLX2 -0.02 (-0.02%), RBX2 -0.0366 (-1.32%). Bearish factors included the big 46,000 jump in initial unemployment claims and some overhang from Wednesday's net bearish weekly DOE report where U.S. oil production edged to another new 17-1/2 year high. However, crude oil received a boost from the positive Chinese economic reports and the news that the Keystone pipeline (590,000 bpd) that carries oil from Canada to the hub at Cushing, Oklahoma would be closed for 3 days due to a possible technical problem.
    • For the complete subscription version of this daily report (plus a 13-page big-picture weekly report), along with the earliest possible delivery in the morning, please visit http://www.barchart.com/register/crbfms_usmc.php
      Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (ranked by market cap): GE-General Electric (Consensus:$0.36), SLB-Schlumberger (1.06), MCD-McDonalds (1.47), HON-Honeywell (1.14), BHI-Baker Hughes (0.83), APD-Air Products (1.44), IR-Ingersoll-Rand (0.98), PH-Parker Hannifin (1.72), CBE-Cooper Industries (1.13), EW-Edwards Life (0.54), KSU-Kansas City Southern (0.84), Indexx Labs (0.73), NVR-NVR Inc (9.44), SEIC-SEI Investments (0.30), VMI-Valmont (2.05), SHAW-Shaw Group (1.38).
      Global Financial Calendar
      Friday 10/19/12
      United States
      1000 ET Sep existing home sales expected -1.5% to 4.75 mln, Aug +7.8% to 4.82 mln.
      1500 ET USDA Sep Cattle-on-Feed report.
      Japan
      0030 ET Japan Aug all-industry activity index expected +0.1% m/m, July -0.6% m/m.
      0100 ET Japan final-Aug coincident index, prelim 93.6. Final-Aug leading index, prelim 93.6.
      Germany
      0200 ET German Sep producer prices expected +0.3% m/m and +1.6% y/y, Aug +0.5% m/m and +1.6% y/y.
      Euro-Zone
      0400 ET Eurozone Aug current account (sa), July 9.7 bln euros.
      United Kingdom
      0430 ET UK Sep public finances (PSNCR) expected 4.7 bln pounds, Aug -9.6 bln pounds. Sep PSNB ex-interventions expected 13.5 bln pounds, Aug 14.4 bln pounds. Sep public sector net borrowing expected 11.7 bln pounds, Aug 12.4 bln pounds.
      Barchart.com provides Financial Quotes, Charts and Technical Analysis for Stock and Commodity Traders.

Monday, October 15, 2012

Barchart Morning Call 10/15


Overnight Developments
  • Dec E-mini S&Ps are up +0.46% on the 1.02% rally in European stocks and optimism ahead of today's expected +0.8% increase in U.S. Sep retail sales. Asian stocks today closed mixed. Commodity prices are down -0.53% with Nov crude oil down -0.34%, Dec gold down -0.66%, Dec copper down -0.31%, and agriculture prices trading mostly lower. The dollar index is little changed this morning while EUR/USD is up +0.19%. Dec 10-year T-notes are down 0.5 tick.
  • China's Sep CPI was reported Sunday night at +1.9% y/y, which was down from Aug's +2.0% and was in line with market expectations. The CPI report was positive and will give the Chinese government room to pursue more accommodative policies.
  • China's Sep exports were reported on Saturday at +9.9% y/y, stronger than market expectations of +5.5% and Aug's report of +2.7%. That report gave the market some confidence that China's economy is holding its ground and is not collapsing due to weak global growth and weak exports. China's Sep imports rose +2.4% y/y, which was in line with market expectations and up from Aug's weak -2.6%. China's Sep trade surplus widened to $27.67 billion from $26.66 billion and was wider than market expectations of $20.54.
  • China's Sep M2 was reported on Saturday at +14.8% y/y, up from Aug's +13.5% and stronger than market expectations of +13.7%.
  • Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman said that Iran is ready to enter talks to suspend its nuclear enrichment program in return for guaranteed supplies of 20% enriched uranium for its medical research reactor, according to a Press TV report on Sunday. However, few took Iran's statement seriously and saw the announcement simply as an effort to slow down EU foreign ministers, who are due to meet today and may agree on even tighter sanctions on Iran.
    Market Comments
    • Dec E-mini S&Ps this morning are up 6.50 points (+0.46%) on a 1.02% rally in the Euro Stoxx 50 index, the 9.9% y/y increase in Chinese Sep exports, and expectations for a strong U.S. retail sales report this morning. The S&P 500 index on Friday closed lower while the Dow and Nasdaq closed slightly higher: S&P 500 -0.30%, Dow Jones +0.02%, Nasdaq 100 +0.03%. Bullish factors included the 0.6% m/m rise in Aug Eurozone industrial production and the unexpected +4.8 point increase in the U.S. consumer confidence from the University of Michigan to a new 5-year high of 83.1. Bearish factors included the 0.72% sell-off in European stocks and concerns about U.S. declining bank profit margins after earnings reports from Wells Fargo and JPMorgan.
    • Dec 10-year T-notes this morning are down 0.5 tick. Dec 10-year T-note prices on Friday closed slightly higher: TYZ2 +1.5, FVZ2 +0.5. Bullish factors included the slightly lower close in the S&P 500 index, the -0.72% sell-off in European stocks, and the strong demand seen for the week's 3-year and 10-year auctions.
    • The dollar index this morning is slightly higher by +0.03 point (+0.03%). EUR/USD is up +0.0025 (+0.19%) on optimism about a more stable Eurozone debt crisis situation going into the EU Summit late this week. USD/JPY is up +0.24 (+0.31%). The dollar index on Friday closed slightly lower: Dollar index -0.11 (-0.14%), EUR/USD +0.0023 (+0.18%), USD/JPY +0.10 (+0.13%). EUR/USD closed mildly higher as S&P's 2-notch downgrade of Spain's debt rating only increased expectations for Spain to accept the ECB/ESM bailout program. The Spanish 10-year bond yield closed the week down 14 bp at 5.61% near a 5-month low.
    • Nov WTI crude oil prices this morning are down -0.31 (-0.34%) and Nov gasoline is down -0.0303 (-1.05%) on continued technical selling and expectations for reduced refinery disruptions. Nov crude oil and gasoline prices closed lower on Friday: CLX2 -0.21 (-0.23%), RBX2 -0.0628 (-2.12%). Bearish factors included long liquidation pressure in gasoline and the IEA's 100,000 bpd cut in its global oil demand estimate for both 2012 and 2013 due to weak global economic growth. The oil market continued to see bearish overhang from Thursday's report that U.S. oil production in the latest reporting week rose sharply by 1.2% to a new 17-1/2 year high and that gasoline consumption fell by -0.5% and is well below the 5-year average.
    • For the complete subscription version of this daily report (plus a 13-page big-picture weekly report), along with the earliest possible delivery in the morning, please visit http://www.barchart.com/register/crbfms_usmc.php
      Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (ranked by market cap): C-Citigroup (Consensus:$0.97), SCHW-Schwab (0.17), BCI-Gannett (0.53), BRO-Brown & Brown (0.35), PKG-Packaging Corp (0.56), VMI-Valmont Industries (2.05), ICUI-ICU Medical (0.68).
      Global Financial Calendar
      Monday 10/15/12
      United States
      0800 ET NY Fed President Dudley speaks to NABE in NY.
      0830 ET Oct Empire manufacturing index expected +6.41 to -4.00, Sep -4.56 to -10.41.
      0830 ET Sep retail sales expected +0.8% m/m, Aug +0.9% m/m. Sep retail sales ex-autos expected +0.6% m/m, Aug +0.8% m/m.
      0830 ET NOPA Sep soybean crush report.
      1000 ET Aug business inventories expected +0.5% m/m, July +0.8% m/m.
      1100 ET USDA weekly grain export inspections.
      1130 ET Weekly 3-mo and 6-mo T-bill auctions.
      1245 ET Richmond Fed President Jeffery Lacker speaks on U.S. economy in Virginia.
      1310 ET St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speaks on U.S. economy in St. Louis, MO.
      1600 ET USDA Crop Progress
      Japan
      0030 ET Japan final Aug industrial production, prelim -1.3% m/m and -4.3% y/y. Final-Aug capacity utilization, prelim +0.5% m/m
      Barchart.com provides Financial Quotes, Charts and Technical Analysis for Stock and Commodity Traders.