Showing posts with label DNKN. Show all posts
Showing posts with label DNKN. Show all posts

Tuesday, April 5, 2016

MORNING CALL 4/5

MORNING CALL

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
Jun E-mini S&Ps (ESM16 -0.66%) are down -0.78% and European stocks are down -2.15% at a 5-week low on concern that global economic growth is faltering. German Feb factory orders unexpectedly fell by the most in 6 months and IMF Managing Director Lagarde said the world economy's outlook has dimmed. A -0.22% fall in crude oil prices to a 1-month low has also undercut energy producing stocks. The slide in stocks has boosted demand for government debt as the yield on the 10-year German bund has tumbled to an 11-1/4 month low of 0.081%. Asian stocks settled mostly lower: Japan-2.42%, Hong Kong -1.57%, China up+1.45%, Taiwan closed for holiday, Australia -1.42%, Singapore -1.21%, South Korea -1.02%, India -2.03%. The plunge in USD/JPY to a 17-month low fueled selling in Japanese exporters as Japan's Nikkei Stock Index fell to a 1-1/2 month low. Chinese stocks bucked the trend as the Shanghai Composite rallied to a 2-1/2 month high on optimism that government efforts to spur economic growth are kicking in.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.28%) is up +0.21%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.25%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.92% to a 17-month low.
Jun T-note prices (ZNM16 +0.31%) are up +15 ticks at a 5-week high on carryover support from a rally in German bunds to an 11-1/4 month low.
IMF Managing Director Lagarde said the world economy's outlook has dimmed over the last 6 months, exacerbated by China's slowdown, lower commodity prices and the risk of financial tightening in many countries. This suggests the IMF will downgrade its growth forecast when it releases its updated World Economic Outlook on Apr 12.
Chicago Fed President Evans said "I believe it will be appropriate to make two more rate hike this year and then follow a very gradual path of rate increases thereafter." Evans projects U.S. 2016 economic growth at 2.0-2.5% and that the U.S. consumer is the "linchpin" behind the outlook.
German Feb factory orders unexpectedly fell -1.2% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.3% m/m and the biggest decline in 6 months.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Key U.S. reports today include: (1) Chicago Fed President Charles Evans' speech on the economy and monetary policy at the Credit Suisse Asian Investment Conference in Hong Kong, (2) Feb U.S. trade balance (expected -$46.2 billion, Jan -$45.68 billion), (3) final-Mar Markit services PMI (expected +0.2 to 51.2, prelim-Mar +1.3 to 51.0), (4) Mar ISM non-manufacturing PMI (expected +0.8 to 54.2, Feb -0.1 to 53.4), and (5) Feb JOLTS job openings (expected -53,000 to 5.488 million, Jan +260,000 to 5.541 million).
There are 2 of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: Darden Restaurants (consensus $1.20), Walgreens (1.28).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: none.
Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Cowen & Co Retail & Luxury Day on Thu
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Allergan (AGN +3.53%) dropped 22% in pre-market trading after the U.S. Treasury Department said it will introduce regulations to make it more difficult to engage in a tax strategy known as "earnings stripping," which enables U.S. subsidiaries to curb their tax bills as interest payments to their foreign parent companies are tax deductible.
Tesla (TSLA +3.96%) slipped 3% in pre-market trading after it reported Q1 deliveries of 14,820 vehicles, below consensus of 16,000.
Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB -0.30%) was downgraded to 'Market Perform' from 'Outperform' at BMO Capital Markets.
Hormel Foods (HRL -0.82%) was downgraded to 'Underweight' from 'Hold' at BB&T Capital Markets.
Northrop Grumman (NOC +0.43%) was rated a new 'Buy' at Guggenheim with a price target of $226.
General Dynamics (GD -0.49%) was rated a new 'Buy' at Guggenheim with a price target of $153.
Raytheon (RTN +0.80%) was rated a new 'Buy' at Guggenheim with a price target of $144.
Disney (DIS -0.39%) dropped 2% in pre-market trading after COO Thomas Staggs said he will step down next month.
Starbucks (SBUX -1.26%) was rated a new 'Buy' at Evercore ISI.
National Instruments (NATI -0.37%) slumped 10% in after-hours trading after it lowered guidance on Q1 adjusted EPS to 14 cents-15 cents, well below consensus of 23 cents.
Dominion Resources (D -1.07%) lost over 1% in after-hours trading after it announced a 10.2 million share secondary stock offering.
United Continental Holdings ({=UAL said it had reached tentative agreements on new contracts with its nearly 30,000 International Association of Machinists & Aerospace Workers (IAM) represented employees.
Dunkin' Brands (DNKN -0.19%) fell 2% in after-hours trading after it was initiated with a 'Sell" at Evercore ISI with a price target of $39.
Parsley Energy (PE -1.27%) dropped over 1% in after-hours trading after it announced a 16 million share offering of Class A common stock.
MARKET COMMENTS
June E-mini S&Ps (ESM16 -0.66%) this morning are down -16.00 points (-0.78%). Monday's closes: S&P 500 -0.32%, Dow Jones -0.31%, Nasdaq-0.45%. The S&P 500 on Monday closed lower on weakness in energy producers after the price of crude oil fell to a 1-month low and on hawkish comments from Boston Fed President Rosengren who said that predictions of just one interest-rate hike before Dec 31 are "unduly pessimistic." Stocks were also undercut by -0.8% decline in U.S. Feb factory orders ex-transportation, weaker than expectations of -0.5%.
June 10-year T-note prices (ZNM16 +0.31%) this morning are up +15 ticks at a 5-week high. Monday's closes: TYM6 +5.50, FVM6 +2.75. Jun T-notes Monday climbed to a 1-month high on the weaker-than-expected U.S. Feb factory orders report ex-transporation of -0.8% and on carryover support from a rally in German bunds to a 1-month high after ECB Executive Board member Praet said that the ECB will continue to act "forcefully" if needed to counter the risk of low inflation in the Eurozone becoming entrenched.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.28%) this morning is up +0.197 (+0.21%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0029 (-0.25%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down-1.02 (-0.92%) at a 17-month low. Monday's closes: Dollar Index -0.109 (-0.12%), EUR/USD unch, USD/JPY -0.35 (-0318%). The dollar index in Monday closed lower on strength in the yen as USD/JPY fell to a 2-week low and on the weaker-than-expected decline in U.S. Feb factory orders ex-transportation.
May WTI crude oil (CLK16 +0.08%) is down -8 cents (-0.22%) at a fresh 1-month low. May gasoline (RBK16 +0.80%) is up +0.0096 (+0.70%). Monday's closes: CLK6 -1.33 (-3.62%), RBK6 -0.0256 (-1.83%). May crude oil and gasoline on Monday closed lower with May crude at a 1-month low. Crude oil prices saw continued weakness from reduced optimism about an OPEC oil production freeze after Saudi Arabia's deputy crown prince last Friday said that Saudi Arabia will not agree to freeze production at the upcoming April 17 meeting in Doha if Iran does not agree as well.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR04/05/2016
US0100 ETChicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks on the economy and monetary policy at the Credit Suisse Asian Investment Conference in Hong Kong.
0830 ETFeb trade balance expected -$46.2 billion, Jan -$45.68 billion.
0945 ETFinal-Mar Markit services PMI expected +0.2 to 51.2, prelim-Mar +1.3 to 51.0. Final-Mar Markit composite PMI, prelim-Mar +1.1 to 51.1.
1000 ETMar ISM non-manufacturing PMI expected +0.8 to 54.2, Feb -0.1 to 53.4.
1000 ETFeb JOLTS job openings expected -53,000 to 5.488 million, Jan +260,000 to 5.541 million.
GER0200 ETGerman Feb factory orders expected +0.3% m/m and +2.2% y/y, Jan -0.1% m/m and +1.1% y/y.
0355 ETRevised German Mar Markit services PMI, preliminary +0.2 to 55.5.
EUR0400 ETRevised Eurozone Mar Markit composite PMI, preliminary +0.7 to 53.7.
0500 ETEurozone Feb retail sales expected unch m/m and +1.9% y/y, Jan +0.4% m/m and +2.0% y/y.
UK0430 ETUK Mar Markit/CIPS services PMI expected +0.8 to 53.5, Feb 52.7.
1901 ETUK Mar BRC shop price index, Feb -2.0% y/y.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR04/05/2016

CompanyTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Darden Restaurants IncDRI USBef-mktQ3 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20161.199
Walgreens Boots Alliance IncWBA US7:00Q2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20161.28
Walgreens Boots Alliance IncWBA US8:30Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
Darden Restaurants IncDRI US8:30Q3 2016 Earnings CallQ3 2016
NVIDIA CorpNVDA US14:30Investor DayY 2016
First Solar IncFSLR USAnalyst MeetingY 2016

Monday, March 7, 2016

MORNING CALL 3/7

MORNING CALL
OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
March E-mini S&Ps (ESH16 -0.35%) are down -0.43% and European stocks are down -1.15% after Chinese leaders lowered growth expectations for this year to 6.5% to 7.0%, down from last year's target of around 7.0%. The price of copper declined on Chinese growth concerns, which dragged down miners and commodity producers, with Anglo American, Glencore and Randgold Resources all down more than 3%. Stock losses were limited as the price of crude oil climbed +1.56% to a 2-month high, which has given energy producing stocks a lift. Another negative for European stocks was the unexpected decline in Eurozone Mar Sentix investor confidence to a 14-month low. Asian stocks settled mixed: Japan -0.61%, Hong Kong -0.08%, China +0.81%, Taiwan +0.19%, Australia +1.04%, Singapore -0.48%, South Korea +0.20%, India closed for holiday.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.22%) is up +0.29%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.45%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.19%.
Jun T-note prices (ZNM16 -0.08%) are down -3.5 ticks.
China's National People's Congress met over the weekend and outlined a growth range of between 6.5% and 7.0% for 2016, with 6.5% pegged as the baseline through 2020, less than last year's growth rate of 6.9% and the slowest expansion since 1990.
The Eurozone Mar Sentix investor confidence unexpectedly fell -0.5 to 5.5, weaker than expectations of +2.3 to 8.3 and the lowest in 14 months.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Fed Governor Lael Brainard's keynote speech at the annual conference of the Institute of International Bankers, (2) Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer's luncheon lecture at the annual NABE conference in Washington, and (3) Jan consumer credit (expected +$16.500 billion, Dec +$21.267 billion).
There are 2 of the Russell 1000 companies that reports earnings today: Urban Outfitters (consensus $0.56), and (2) Thor Industries (0.62).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: none.
Equity conferences this week include: Cowen and Company Health Care Conference on Mon-Tue, Deutsche Bank Media, Internet and Telecom Conference on Mon-Tue, Raymond James Institutional Investors Conference on Mon-Wed, Mitsubishi UFJ Securities: Oil & Gas Conference - New York on Tue, J.P. Morgan Aviation, Transportation & Industrials Conference on Tue-Wed, Piper Jaffray Technology Symposium on Tue-Wed, RBC Capital Markets Financial Institutions Conference on Tue-Wed, UBS Global Consumer Conference on Wed-Thu, JPMorgan Chase & Co., Inc Aviation, Transportation and Industrials Conference on Tue-Thu, J.P. Morgan Gaming, Lodging, Restaurant & Leisure Management Access Forum on Thu.


OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Dunkin' Brands Group (DNKN +1.43%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Guggenheim Securities.
Statasys Ltd. (SSYS +12.68%) was downgraded to 'Underweight' from 'Neutral' at JPMorgan Chase.
Del Taco (TACO -2.60%) reported Q4 EPS of 12 cents, weaker than consensus of 16 cents, and then lowered guidance on fiscal 2016 EPS to 53 cents-56 cents, below consensus of 59 cents.
Cardinal Health (CAH -0.12%) was added to Goldman Sach's Conviction Buy list.
Pier 1 (PIR -0.18%) reported preliminary Q4 comparable sales were down -0.7%, a smaller decline than expectations of down -2.0% to -4.0%.
UDR Inc. (UDR -4.85%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at BMO Capital Markets.
Wynn Resorts (WYNN -3.29%) was upgraded to 'Boy' from 'Neutral at UBS.
Ingersoll-Rand (IR -0.24%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Nomura with a price target of $68.
C. H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW +1.64%) was downgraded to 'Market Perform' from 'Outpeform' at BMO Capital Markets.
Du Pont (DD +2.05%) climbed over 6% in after-hours trading after BASF said it was working with banks to weigh a counter bid for DuPont
Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC -0.86%) slumped 10% in after-hours trading after it said CFO Joe Bedewi will leave the company effective April 2.
Apache Corp. (APA +6.54%) said it will close its Alaska operations and won't pursue extensions of its acreage leases that are set to expire later this year.
Carmike Cinemas (CKEC +16.49%) was downgraded to 'Market Perform' from 'Outperform' at Barrington Research.
MARKET COMMENTS
Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH16 -0.35%) this morning are down -8.50 points (-0.43%). Friday's closes: S&P 500 +0.33%, Dow Jones +0.37%, Nasdaq +0.07%. The S&P 500 on Friday climbed to a 2-month high and settled higher after U.S. Feb non-farm payrolls rose more than expected (+242,000 vs. expectations of +195,000). Also, a rally in energy and commodity producers gave the overall market a lift after crude oil climbed to a 2-month high, gold rallied to a 13-month high and copper rose to a 4-month high. A negative for stock factor was the unexpected -0.1% m/m decline in U.S. Feb avg hourly earnings, weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m and the first decline in 14 months.
Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM16 -0.08%) this morning are down -3.5 ticks. Friday's closes: TYM6 -13.50, FVM6 -9.75. Jun T-notes on Friday tumbled to a 1-month low after U.S. Feb non-farm payrolls rose more than expected, which bolsters the case for the Fed to keep raising interest rates. T-notes were also pressured after the S&P 500 rallied to a 2-month high, which reduced the safe-haven demand for T-notes.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.22%) this morning is up +0.286 (+0.29%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0050 (-0.45%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down-0.22 (-0.19%). Friday's closes: Dollar Index -0.252 (-0.26%), EUR/USD +0.0048 (+0.44%), USD/JPY +0.05 (+0.04%). The dollar index on Friday fell to a 1-1/2 week low as the unexpected decline in U.S. Feb average hourly earnings (-0.1% m/m vs. expectations of +0.2% m/m) may keep the Fed from raising interest rates. EUR/USD rallied after the German Feb Markit construction PMI rose +1.7 to a record high 59.6 (data from 2013).
Apr WTI crude (CLJ16 +1.67%) this morning is up +56 cents (+1,56%) at a 2-month high and Apr gasoline (RBJ16 +0.62%) is up +0.0060 (+0.45%). Friday's closes: CLJ6 +1.35 (+3.91%), RBJ6 +0.0333 (+2.56%). Apr crude oil and gasoline on Friday closed higher with Apr crude at a 2-month high after the dollar index sold off to a 1-1/2 week low and after data from Baker Hughes showed U.S. active oil rigs fell by 8 to a 6-1/4 year low of 392 in the week ended Mar 4, which should curb future U.S. crude production.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR03/07/2016
US1100 ETUSDA weekly grain export inspections.
1200 ETFed Governor Lael Brainard is keynote speaker at the annual conference of the Institute of International Bankers.
1300 ETFed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer delivers luncheon lecture at the annual NABE conference in Washington.
1500 ETJan consumer credit expected +$16.500 billion, Dec +$21.267 billion.
JPN0000 ETJapan Jan leading index CI expected -0.5 to 101.6, Dec 102.1. Jan coincident index expected +2.9 to 113.8, Dec 110.9.
1850 ETRevised Japan Q4 GDP expected -1.6% (q/q annualized), previous -1.4% (q/q annualized).
2330 ETJapan Feb bankruptcies, Jan -6.38% y/y.
GER0200 ETGerman Jan factory orders expected -0.3% m/m and unch y/y, Dec -0.7% m/m and -2.7% y/y.
EUR0430 ETEurozone Mar Sentix investor confidence expected +2.3 to 8.3, Feb 6.0.
UK1901 ETUK Feb BRC sales like-for-like expected +0.5% y/y, Jan +2.6% y/y.
CHIn/aChina Feb trade balance expected +$50.75 billion, Jan +$63.29 billion. Feb exports expected -15.0% y/y, Jan 11.2% y/y. Feb imports expected -10.2% y/y, Jan -18.8% y/y.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR03/07/2016
CompanyTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Superior Industries International IncSUP USBef-mktQ4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20150.345
Greif IncGEF USBef-mktQ1 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20160.323
Federated National Holding CoFNHC US8:00Q4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20150.744
Lumos Networks CorpLMOS US8:00Q4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20150.073
Casey's General Stores IncCASY US16:00Q3 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20160.925
TG Therapeutics IncTGTX USAft-mktQ4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 2015-0.317
United Natural Foods IncUNFI USAft-mktQ2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20160.478
Hill International IncHIL USAft-mktQ4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20150.107
ICF International IncICFI USAft-mktQ4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20150.747
Neff CorpNEFF USAft-mktQ4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20150.363
Heritage-Crystal Clean IncHCCI USAft-mktQ4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20150.177
CatchMark Timber Trust IncCTT USAft-mktQ4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20150.07
Quanex Building Products CorpNX USAft-mktQ1 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ1 2016-0.093
Addus HomeCare CorpADUS USAft-mktQ4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20150.286
Atlas Financial Holdings IncAFH USAft-mktQ4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20150.355
Douglas Dynamics IncPLOW USAft-mktQ4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20150.563
Otonomy IncOTIC USAft-mktQ4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 2015-0.958
Xencor IncXNCR USAft-mktQ4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 2015-0.295
Preferred Apartment Communities IncAPTS USAft-mktQ4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20150.325
Jones Energy IncJONE USAft-mktQ4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 2015-0.058
Shake Shack IncSHAK USAft-mktQ4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20150.073
Lion Biotechnologies IncLBIO USQ4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 2015-0.2

Thursday, October 1, 2015

BARCHART MORNING CALL 10/1


OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ15 +0.29%) are up +0.65% and European stocks are up +0.59% at a 1-week high on signs of stabilization in Chinese manufacturing activity that pushed up the price of oil (CLX15 +2.24%) by +2.42% and fueled a rally in energy and basic-resource companies. Copper prices (HGZ15 +0.26%) also climbed +0.56% to a 1-week high, which gave miners a lift with Anglo American Plc and BHP Billiton both up nearly 3%. Asian stocks settled higher: Japan +1.92%, Hong Kong and China closed for holiday, Taiwan +1.40%, Australia +1.80%, Singapore +0.39%, South Korea +0.81%, India +0.25%. An unexpected increase in the China Sep manufacturing PMI bolstered confidence in China's economic outlook and gave global stocks a lift, while a bigger than expected decline in Japan Q3 Tankan large manufacturing business conditions undercut the yen and gave Japanese stocks a lift on speculation that the BOJ may need to expand stimulus.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.04%) is up +0.03%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.27%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.08%.
Dec T-note prices (ZNZ15 +0.01%) are down -2 ticks.
The China Sep manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose +0.1 to 49.8, better than expectations of no change at 49.7. The Sep non-manufacturing PMI remained unch at 53.4.
The Japan Q3 Tankan large manufacturing business conditions fell -3 from last quarter to 12, a bigger decline than expectations of -2 to 13.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Sep Challenger job cuts (Aug +2.9% y/y), (2) weekly initial unemployment claims (expected +4,000 to 271,000, previous +3,000 to 267,000) and continuing claims (expected -12,000 to 2.230 million, previous -1,000 to 2.242 million), (3) final-Sep Markit manufacturing PMI (expected unch at 53.0, prelim-Sep unch at 53.0), (4) Aug construction spending (expected +0.5%, Jul +0.7% m/m), (5) Sep ISM manufacturing index (expected -0.5 to 50.6, Aug -1.6 to 51.1), (6) San Francisco Fed President John Williams' speech on the economic outlook to Salt Lake Area Community Leaders, and (7) Sep total vehicle sales (expected 17.60 million, Aug 17.72 million).
There are 2 of the Russell 2000 companies that report earnings today: McCormick & Co (consensus $0.87), Micron Technology (0.87).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today include: Novocure (NVCR), Civitas Solutions (CIVI).
Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Leerink Partners Rare Disease Roundtable Conference on Thu.




OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
SanDisk (SNDK +10.67%) was raised to 'Overweight' from 'Equalweight' at Morgan Stanley with a price target of $75.
McCormick (MKC +1.22%) reported Q3 EPS of 85 cents, below consensus of 87 cents.
Microsoft (MSFT +1.89%) was raised to 'Neutral' from 'Underperform' at Bank of America.
Universal Health Services (UHS +3.01%) was raised to 'Overweight' from 'Sector Weight' at Keybanc Capital Markets with a $145 price target.
Celgene (CELG +2.69%) was raised to 'Overweight' from 'Neutral' at JPMorgan Chase with a $152 price target.
Bristol-Meyers Squiibb (BMY +0.42%) received approval from the U.S. FDA for its Opdivo, Yervoy regiment usedto treat metastatic melanoma.
Schnitzer (SCHN +0.74%) raised guidance on Q4 adjusted continuing operation EPS to 27 cents-30 cents, above consensus of 24 cents.
Verisk Analytics (VRSK +2.30%) rose nearly 5% in after-hours trading after it was announced the company will replace Joy Global in the S&P 500 as of the close of trading on Oct 7.
Joy Global (JOY +0.95%) fell over 2% in after-hours trading after it was announced the company will be replaced in the S&P 500 by Verisk Analytics.
PBF Energy (PBF +2.21%) climbed over 4% in after-hours trading after the company said it bought the 155,000 barrel-per-day Torrance, CA, refinery from Exxon Mobil for $537.5 million plus working capital to be valued at closing.
Concho Resources (CXO +1.76%) fell 4% in after-hours trading after it announced an offering of 7 million shares of common stock.
Northrop Grumman (NOC +1.47%) won a U.S. Air Force contract worth up to $3.2 billion to build and service the Global Hawk drone.

MARKET COMMENTS
Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ15 +0.29%) this morning are up +12.50 points (+0.65%). Wednesday's closes: S&P 500 +1.91%, Dow Jones +1.47%, Nasdaq +2.39%. The S&P 500 on Wednesday closed sharply higher on the +200,000 increase in the Sep ADP employment change, stronger than expectations of +190,000. There was also bargain hunting in raw-material producers and health-care stocks that have been beaten down recently. The main bearish factor for stocks was the -5.7 point decline in the Sep Chicago PMI to a 4-month low of 48.7.

Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ15 +0.01%) this morning are down -2 ticks. Wednesday's closes: TYZ5 -2.50, FVZ5 -1.00. Dec T-note prices on Wednesday closed lower on the the sharp rally in stocks, which curbed safe-haven demand for Treasuries, and on the stronger-than-expected Sep ADP employment report of +200,000. T-notes found underlying support from the decline in the Sep Chicago PMI to a 4-month low.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.04%) this morning is up +0.030 (+0.03%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is own -0.0030 (-0.27%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.10 (+0.08%). Wednesday's closes: Dollar Index +0.495 (+0.52%), EUR/USD -0.0072 (-0.64%), USD/JPY +0.14 (+0.12%). The dollar index on Wednesday closed higher on the larger-than-expected increase in Sep ADP employment report, which bolsters the case for a Fed interest rate increase this year. There was also weakness in EUR/USD on speculation the ECB may expand stimulus measures to fight deflation after Eurozone Sep CPI unexpectedly fell-0.1% y/y, weaker than expectations of unch y/y and the first decline in 6 months.
Nov crude oil (CLX15 +2.24%) this morning is up +$1.09 a barrel (+2.42%) and Nov gasoline (RBX15 +3.06%) is up +0.0419 (+3.07%). Wednesday's closes: CLX5 -0.14 (-0.31%), RBX5 -0.0170 (+1.26%). Nov crude oil and gasoline Wednesday settled mixed. Crude oil and gasoline were undercut by the unexpected +3.955 million bbl increase in EIA crude inventories (vs expectations of -500,000 bbl) and the unexpected +3.254 million bbl jump in EIA gasoline inventories (vs expectations of -500,000 bbl). Supportive factors included the -0.4% decline in U.S. crude production in the week ended Sep 25 to a 9-3/4 month low of 9.1 million bpd and the -1.068 million bbl decline in crude inventories at Cushing to a 6-1/2 month low.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR10/01/2015
US0730 ETSep Challenger job cuts, Aug +2.9% y/y.
0830 ETWeekly initial unemployment claims expected +4,000 to 271,000, previous +3,000 to 267,000. Weekly continuing claims expected -12,000 to 2.230 million, previous -1,000 to 2.242 million.
0830 ETUSDA weekly Export Sales.
0945 ETFinal-Sep Markit manufacturing PMI expected unch at 53.0, prelim-Sep unch at 53.0.
1000 ETAug construction spending expected +0.5%, Jul +0.7% m/m.
1000 ETSep ISM manufacturing index expected -0.5 to 50.6, Aug -1.6 to 51.1. Sep ISM new orders sub-index, Aug -4.8 to 51.7. Sep ISM employment sub-index, Aug -1.5 to 51.2. Sep ISM prices paid sub-index expected +1.0 to 40.0, Aug -5.0 to 39.0.
1100 ETTreasury announces amount of 3-year T-notes (previous $24 billion), 10-year T-notes (previous $21 billion) and 30-year T-bonds (previous $13 billion) to be auctioned Oct 6-8.
1430 ETSan Francisco Fed President John Williams speaks on the economic outlook to Salt Lake Area Community Leaders.
n/aSep total vehicle sales expected 17.60 million, Aug 17.72 million. Sep domestic vehicle sales expected 13.80 million, Aug 13.80 million.
JPN0100 ETJapan Sep vehicle sales, Aug +2.3% y/y.
1930 ETJapan Aug jobless rate expected unch at 3.3%. Aug job-to-applicant ratio expected unch at 1.21.
1930 ETJapan Aug overall household spending expected +0.3% y/y, Jul -0.2% y/y.
GER0355 ETRevised German Sep Markit/BME manufacturing PMI, previous -0.8 to 52.5.
EUR0400 ETRevised Eurozone Sep Markit manufacturing PMI, previous -0.3 to 52.0.
0930 ETECB President Mario Draghi speaks at the Atlantic Council Global Citizens Award ceremony in Washington, D.C.
UK0430 ETUK Sep Markit manufacturing PMI expected -0.2 to 51.3, Aug 51.5.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR10/01/2015

CompanyTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
McCormick & Co Inc/MDMKC USBef-mktQ3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20150.866
McCormick & Co Inc/MDMKC US8:00Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Clorox Co/TheCLX US9:00Analyst DayY 2015
Dunkin' Brands Group IncDNKN US9:00Investor & Analyst DayY 2015
Ford Motor CoF US9:15September 2015 Sales and Revenue Release2015
Ford Motor CoF US10:00September 2015 Sales and Revenue Call2015
Home Properties IncHME US10:00Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting - M&A VoteY 2015
General Motors CoGM US10:00Business Update Call
Macerich Co/TheMAC US11:00Investor MeetingY 2015
Micron Technology IncMU US16:30Q4 2015 Earnings CallQ4 2015
Micron Technology IncMU USAft-mktQ4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20150.335
Rite Aid CorpRAD USSeptember 2015 Sales and Revenue Release
John Wiley & Sons IncJW/A USAnnual General Meeting
Ameren CorpAEE USInvestor Meeting - BostonY 2015

Monday, July 20, 2015

BARCHART MORNING CALL 7/20

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
September E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 +0.09%) are up +0.11% at a 1-3/4 month high and European stocks are up +0.92% at a 2-1/2 month high after the Greek government gave orders to repay 6.8 billion euros due to creditors. Greek banks reopened today, although Greek financial markets remain closed. The markets will also focus on company Q2 earnings results which begin to come out in force this week. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan closed for holiday, Hong Kong -0.04%, China +0.88%, Taiwan -0.78%, Australia +0.30%, Singapore +0.60%, South Korea -0.53%, India -0.15%. China's Shanghai Stock Index closed higher on signs that government stimulus measures are beginning to take effect after China Jun new yuan loans rose at the fastest pace on 5 months. However, a total of 633 Chinese companies remain suspended from trading on mainland exchanges, down only 2 from 635 at the close Friday.
Commodity prices are mostly lower. Aug crude oil (CLQ15 -0.06%) is down -0.35%. Aug gasoline (RBQ15 -0.13%) is down -0.31%. Metals prices are weaker. Aug gold (GCQ15 -1.70%)is down -1.79% at a 5-1/3 year low on fund selling. Sep copper (HGU15 -0.78%) is down -0.76% at a 1-week low. Agricultural prices are lower as beneficial weather across the central U.S. over the weekend boosted yield prospects of U.S. crops. Dec corn is down -1.39% at a 2-week low, Nov soybeans are down -1.34% at a 1-week low and Sep wheat is down -1.58% at a 3-week low.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.11%) is up +0.14% at a 2-3/4 month high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.09%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.10% at a 3-week high.

Sep T-note prices (ZNU15 -0.04%) are down -3.5 ticks.
China Jun new yuan loans increased 1.279 trillion yuan, stronger than expectations of 1.050 trillion yuan and the most in 5 months.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: none.
There are 6 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today: Morgan Stanley (consensus $0.74), IBM (3.78), Halliburton (0.29), Hasbro (0.29), Zions Bancorp (0.38), Genuine Parts (1.33).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today include: none.
Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: BIO World Congress on Industrial Biotechnology Conference on Mon, Wells Fargo Securities Telecom Symposium on Thu.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Morgan Stanley (MS +0.73%) reported Q2 EPS of 79 cents, above consensus of 74 cents.
Halliburton (HAL -0.55%) reported Q2 EPS of 44 cents, higher than consensus of 29 cents.
Hasbro (HAS -0.22%) reported Q2 EPS of 33 cents, better than consensus of 29 cents.
Amazon.com (AMZN +1.58%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at Cowen.
Brocade (BRCD -1.02%) was downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Neutral' at UBS.
Hertz (HTZ +11.89%) was reinstated with an 'Outperform' at Credit Suisse with a price target of $23.
SanDisk (SNDK -1.12%) was upgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Reduce' at Nomura.
Dunkin' Brands (DNKN -0.45%) was downgraded to 'Underperform' from 'Outperform' at CLSA.
Solera (SLH -1.96%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Overweight' at Piper Jaffray.
Zillow Group (Z -0.48%) was downgraded to 'Underweight' from 'Equal Weight' at Barclays.
Huntington Ingalls (HII -0.82%) was awarded a $106.2 million government contract for engineering, technical, design, configuration management, integrated logistics support, database management, research and development, modernization, and industrial support for Navy submarines.
Viking Global Investors reported a 5.2% passive stake in Ctrip.com (CTRP unch) .
American Capital reported an 8.3% passive stake in WPCS International (WPCS -1.81%) .
ESL Partners reported a 9.8% stake in Seritage Growth Properties (SRG +4.06%) .
MARKET COMMENTS
September E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 +0.09%) this morning are up +2.25 points (+0.11%) at a 1-3/4 month high. Friday's closes: S&P 500 +0.11%, Dow Jones -0.19%, Nasdaq +1.45%. The S&P 500 index on Friday posted a 3-week high and closed higher on (1) strength in the U.S. housing market after Jun housing starts rose +9.8% to 1.174 million and Jun building permits unexpectedly jumped +7.4% to an 8-year high of 1.343 million, and (2) a rally in technology stocks after Google surged to an all-time high. Negative factors included the -2.8 point drop to 93.3 in the preliminary-July U.S. consumer sentiment index and weakness in commodity producers after crude oil fell to a 3-1/2 month low and gold plunged to a 5-1/4 year low.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU15 -0.04%) this morning are down -3.5 ticks. Friday's closes: TYU5 -1.50, FVU5 -2.75. Sep T-notes Friday settled lower on the rally in the S&P 500 to a 3-week high and the stronger-than-expected U.S. Jun housing starts and building permits reports that may cause the Fed to raise interest rates sooner rather than later. T-notes found support from the weaker-than-expected U.S. consumer sentiment index of -2.8 to 93.3.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.11%) this morning is up +0.136 (+0.14%) at a 2-3/4 month high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0010 (+0.09%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.13 (+0.10%) at a 3-week high. Friday's closes: Dollar Index +0.194 (+0.20%), EUR/USD -0.00469 (-0.43%), USD/JPY -0.130 (-0.11%). The dollar index on Friday climbed to a 2-3/4 month high and closed higher on (1) the strong U.S. housing starts and building permits reports that may prompt the Fed to increase interest rates sooner rather than later, and (2) the decline in EUR/USD to a 1-1/2 month low on Fed/ECB policy divergence.
Aug WTI crude oil (CLQ15 -0.06%) this morning is down -18 cents (-0.35%). Aug gasoline (RBQ15 -0.13%) is down -0.0060 (-0.31%). Friday's closes: CLQ5 -0.02 (-0.04%), RBQ5 +0.0319 (+1.68%). Aug crude and gasoline Friday settled mixed with Aug crude at a 3-1/2 month low. Crude oil prices were undercut by the rally in the dollar index to a 2-3/4 month high and the ongoing crude oil glut with U.S. crude inventories nearly 100 million bbl above the 5-year average. Gasoline closed higher and crude recovered from its worst levels on the rally in the S&P 500 to a 3-week high and the decline in U.S. active oil rigs by 7 to 638 in the week ended Jul 17.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR07/20/2015
US1100 ETUSDA weekly grain export inspections.
1600 ETUSDA weekly crop progress.
GER0200 ETGerman Jun PPI expected -0.1% m/m and -1.4% y/y, May unch m/m and -1.3% y/y.
EUR0400 ETEurozone May current account balance, Apr +20.4 billion euros (nsa).
JPNn/aJapanese markets closed for Marine Day.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR07/20/2015
CompanyTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Hasbro IncHAS US6:30Q2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20150.285
Halliburton CoHAL US7:00Q2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20150.29
Morgan StanleyMS US7:00Q2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20150.739
Hasbro IncHAS US8:30Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
Morgan StanleyMS US8:30Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
Halliburton CoHAL US9:00Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
Genuine Parts CoGPC US11:00Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
International Business Machines CorpIBM US16:30Q2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20153.784
International Business Machines CorpIBM US16:30Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
Zions BancorporationZION USAft-mktQ2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20150.377
Zions BancorporationZION US17:30Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
Genuine Parts CoGPC USQ2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20151.325

Thursday, July 9, 2015

BARCHART MORNING CALL 7/9

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
September E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 +1.02%) are up +1.01% and European stocks are up +1.74% following a rebound in Chinese equities. Greece extended its bank holiday and capital controls through Monday and has until midnight Thursday to present European leaders with a plan that includes spending cuts in exchange for fresh bailout funds. European leaders will then meet on Sunday to decide their response to the proposals. Asian stocks closed mostly higher: Japan +0.60%, Hong Kong +3.73%, China +5,76%, Taiwan -0.69%, Australia +0.03%, Singapore -0.54%, South Korea +0.75%, India -0.41%. China's Shanghai Composite recovered from a 3-3/4 month low and closed higher after regulators banned majority stockholders from selling their shares for at least 6 months. Investors continue to sell shares bought on margin funds as data showed traders unloaded a record 112 billion yuan ($18 billion) of shares bought with borrowed money on the Shanghai exchange Wednesday, the 13th straight day of declines.
Commodity prices are mixed. Aug crude oil (CLQ15 +2.88%) is up +1.65%, Aug gasoline (RBQ15 +0.85%) is down -0.60%. Metals prices are mixed. Aug gold (GCQ15 -0.11%) is down -0.16%. Sep copper (HGU15 +1.62%) is up +1.40%. Agricultural prices are higher.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.10%) is up +0.21%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.23%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.68%.

Sep T-note prices (ZNU15 -0.31%) are down -11 ticks as the rally in global stocks reduces the safe-haven demand for Treasuries.
As Greece extended its bank holiday and capital controls through Monday, the ECB on Wednesday kept the cap on Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) to Greece's central bank at 88.6 billion euros, the level it has been frozen at since Jun 26. A Greek official with direct knowledge of the matter said at the current level of ELA, Greek banks have sufficient liquidity to last through Monday.
As expected, the BOE at the conclusion of today's policy meeting kept its benchmark interest rate at 0.50% and maintained its asset purchase target at 375 billion pounds.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) weekly initial unemployment claims (expected -6,000 to 275,000 after last week's +10,000 to 281,000) and continuing claims (expected -14,000 to 2.250 million after last week's +15,000 to 2.264 million), (2) the Treasury's auction of $13 billion of 30-year T-bonds, (3) an appearance by Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota on central banks and fiscal authorities as a panelist at the Deutsche Bundesbank Conference, and (4) a speech by Kansas City Fed President Esther George on the U.S. economy and monetary policy at OSU in Stillwater, OK.
There are two of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: PepsiCo (consensus $1.24), Walgreens (0.87).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today include: none.
Equity conferences this week: none.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Knight Transportation (KNX -0.52%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Neutral' at Credit Suisse.
Con-way (CNW -3.88%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Outperform' at Credit Suisse.
Regeneron (REGN -1.61%) was downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Neutral' at UBS.
J.B. Hunt (JBHT -1.45%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Longbow.
Amgen (AMGN -1.98%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at UBS.
Dunkin' Brands (DNKN -1.60%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Goldman Sachs.
Panera Bread (PNRA -0.47%) was upgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Sell' at Goldman Sachs.
Conn's (CONN -2.21%) reports that its June same-store-sales were up +1.1% y/y.
HSBC (HSBC -2.68%) was upgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Underperform' at Exane BNP Paribas.
Costco (COST -0.43%) reports that its June same-store-sales were down 1% y/y.
Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA -1.54%) reported Q3 EPS of $1.02, stronger than consensus of 87 cents.
PepsiCo (PEP -0.82%) jumped over 2% in pre-market trading after it reported Q2 EPS of $1.32, higher than consensus of $1.24.
Yahoo! (YHOO -2.62%) rose over 2% in pre-market tradign after the company said it will roll out a new sports-fantasy service designed for use on mobile devices.
Alcoa (AA -5.06%) reported Q2 EPS of 19 cents, below consensus of 23 cents.
Celgene Rivot reported a 9.1% stake in Juno Therapeutics (JUNO -6.24%) .
MARKET COMMENTS
September E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 +1.02%) this morning are up +20.50 points (+1.01%) as Chinese stocks stabilized. Wednesday's closes: S&P 500 -1.67%, Dow Jones -1.47%, Nasdaq -1.75%. The S&P 500 on Wednesday closed sharply lower on Grexit concerns, the plunge in China's Shanghai Composite to a 3-1/2 month low, and the +$16.086 billion increase in U.S. May consumer credit, less than expectations of +$18.5.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU15 -0.31%) this morning are down -11 ticks. TYU5 +8.00, FVU5 +6.00. Sep T-notes on Wednesday rose to a 5-week high and closed higher on (1) safe-haven demand from concerns about Grexit and the plunge in the Chinese stock market, and (2) expectations that the Fed's first rate hike will be delayed by Greek and Chinese concerns.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.10%) this morning is up +0.201 (+0.21%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0026 (-0.23%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.82 (+0.68%). Dollar Index -0.637 (-0.66%), EUR/USD +0.00649 (+0.59%), USD/JPY -1.829 (-1.49%). The dollar index on Wednesday closed lower on some safe-haven demand for the yen and a rally in EUR/USD tied to relief that the ECB maintained the Greek 89 billion euro ELA lifeline.
Aug WTI crude oil (CLQ15 +2.88%) this morning is up +85 cents (+1.65%). Aug gasoline (RBQ15 +0.85%) is down -0.0119 (-0.60%). CLQ5 -0.68 (-1.30%), RBQ5 +0.0572 (+2.93%). Aug crude and gasoline on Wednesday settled mixed. The EIA report was bearish with the +384,000 bbl increase in EIA crude inventories, more than expectations for no change, and the +1.22 million bbl increase in EIA gasoline supplies, more than expectations of no change. Other negative factors included concern about the negative economic fall-out from Greece and China and expectations that Iranian oil exports will double if there is a near-term Iranian nuclear agreement. The main supportive factor for crude oil prices was the weaker dollar.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR07/09/2015
US0545 ETMinneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota speaks on central banks and fiscal authorities as a panelist at the Deutsche Bundesbank Conference.
0830 ETWeekly initial unemployment claims expected -6,000 to 275,000, previous +10,000 to 281,000. Weekly continuing claims expected -14,000 to 2.250 million, previous +15,000 to 2.264 million.
0830 ETUSDA weekly Export Sales.
1300 ETKansas City Fed President Esther George speaks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy at OSU in Stillwater, OK.
1300 ETTreasury auctions $13 billion of 30-year T-bonds.
GER0200 ETGerman May trade balance expected +20.5 billion euros, Apr +21.8 billion euros. May exports expected -0.8% m/m, Apr +2.0% y/y. May imports expected +0.1% m/m, Apr -0.8% y/y.
0200 ETGerman May current account balance expected +16.0 billion euros, Apr +19.6 billion euros.
JPN0200 ETJapan Jun machine tool orders, May +15.0% y/y.
1950 ETJapan Jun PPI expected -0.1% m/m and -2.2% y/y, May +0.3% m/m and -2.1% y/y.
UK0700 ETBOE announces interest rate decision and asset purchase target, expected no change to the 0.50% benchmark rate or to the 375 billion pound asset purchase target.
CHIn/aChina Jun new yuan loans expected +1.050 trillion yuan, May +900.8 billion yuan.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR07/09/2015
CompanyTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
American Airlines Group IncAAL USBef-mktJune 2015 Sales and Revenue Release - Traffic Results2015
PepsiCo IncPEP US6:30Q2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20151.241
Walgreens Boots Alliance IncWBA US7:00Q3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20150.871
L Brands IncLB US7:30June 2015 Sales and Revenue Call2015
PepsiCo IncPEP US8:00Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
Walgreens Boots Alliance IncWBA US8:30Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
T-Mobile US IncTMUS US9:00Un-Carrier Amped Announcement
United Continental Holdings IncUAL USAft-mktJune 2015 Sales and Revenue Release - Operational Performance2015
Gap Inc/TheGPS USJune 2015 Sales and Revenue Release2015
Eli Lilly & CoLLY USFDA Adcomm, necitumumab, first-line squamous non-small cell lung cancer
L Brands IncLB USJune 2015 Sales and Revenue Release2015